The Week Ahead

111 Comments

1:50PM

Starting the outlook for the coming 7 days a bit early, as there is not much to talk about on this bright and cold Sunday afternoon. The tranquil chill is a bit of a rest-up ahead of what will be an active and changing weather week in southeastern New England.

This will lead off with a warm front moving into the region Monday, the mild air behind it overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in a period of snow and mixed precipitation developing from southwest to northeast during the day Monday lasting into the evening. Though snow amounts will be generally light (mostly under 3 inches), some slippery travel is possible for the Monday afternoon / evening commute and for a few more hours into the night, especially across interior RI up through eastern MA into southern NH.

The warm front responsible for the wintry precipitation Monday will slog slowly northward during Tuesday, which will become milder from south to north. I’m not expecting much additional precipitation on Tuesday at this point, but with the front not too far away, it’s always possible a few areas of light rain and drizzle (as it will be milder aloft) may occur. So expect clouds to rule more than anything.

By Wednesday, as a strong cold front approaches from the west but doesn’t quite make it into the region during the day, expect a stronger push of warmer air from the south and southwest. It’s not impossible that some areas may approach or reach 60, and much of the day should be rain-free, as it looks like the cold front’s timing would bring most of the wet weather, possibly a ribbon of heavy rain including thunderstorms, through from west to east during the evening and nighttime hours.

The cold front should be moving offshore during Thursday, which will transition back to colder weather via a strong west wind and possibly a few lingering rain or snow showers.

The first 3 days of February (Friday-Sunday) look cold and there is a shot of a winter weather event in there as well. There are far too many variations on medium range computer guidance to even attempt any detail here yet, but will make a best-guess for now and then fine-tune as it gets closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Sunshine. Highs 23-28. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear start, increasing high clouds west to east late. Low from near 5 interior valleys to 10-15 coastal and urban areas. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing from southwest to northeast from mid afternoon through dusk except mixed snow/rain South Coast and rain on the Islands. Highs 30-35. Wind light variable eventually becoming SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow inland, mix coast especially south of Boston and rain outer Cape Cod & Islands. Precipitation ending from west to east before midnight. Snow accumulation in mix areas of less than 1 inch, 1-3 inches elsewhere. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain at times mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs around 40. Wind light S.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers & possible thunderstorms arriving at night. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Temperatures falling through the 50s overnight and the 40s during the day to the 30s at night.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 18. High 28.

111 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK.
    Wintry weather, mild temps, cold temps, and even the possiblity of thunderstorms. I would say this 7 day that offers something for everybody. Thankfully with the thunderstorms should they develop Wednesday night will be non severe which is a 1 on the 1-4 thunderstorm index. There could be some severe storms in Mid Atlantic is indicated by the storm prediction center. Snow Index tomorrow is a 1 since I don’t see snowfall exceeding 4 inches. PM commute will be tricky tomorrow!

  2. Tk Thanks for the update.

    What would you put the probability of a snow event on Ground Hog Day?

    .4 or .5 or so? 😀

    1. For it being nearly a week away, I think there is a better than 50% chance we see some type of snow event between Friday night and Sunday.

  4. Speaking of Ground Hog Day how does he not see his shadow with all those camera lights flashing on him??? He is about as accurate as the almanac in my opinion.

    2. In many ways i believe an animal can tell you what’s coming. I know we could tell by the horses coats what the winter would be like and also when it was nearly ended because they’d start to shed more heavily. I don’t believe the ground hog story though 🙂

    1. The NAM has been running a lot colder than the GFS.

      The NWS Point Forecast is coming off the NAM.

  8. Just saw winter weather advisories up for Berkshire County in MA and Litchfield County in CT. I would not be surprised if more areas of SNE are put under an advisory.

        2. Thanks. I heard even an outside chance for four, what’s your take on that. Seems like Boston and north to get the brunt this go around.

    1. Latest from our friends at NEWW:

      New England Weather Works
      UPDATED AT 3:00

      Short range Models appear to support a colder solution for the upcoming Monday event, we may adjust the Mix in Southern sections, looks like a colder solution keeping mostly what falls in the form of frozen precipitation, looking at the potential for a flash Freeze on Thursday as Arctic air may just catch the precipitation changing it back to heavy snow, this will freeze quickly so were going to narrow the timing down.

      A potential system will develop along the Arctic front on Friday and ride North, this would be in there form of all snow for eastern Massachusetts and Maine, will narrow this down later this evening.

          1. I forgot about that one, that was a wednesday one. How could I forget that one as we did snow on straight Time.

      2. Why does this website always say it’s gonna be worse and there usually wrong, this website is better IMO I want the real thing none of this Henry M crapola crazy! Hope all is well!

        1. I think this website gives information for us to digest. With rare exception that’s all it is. TK gives us his best opinion and its never hyped. After that the fun is in the discussion. Its what a blog is. How come you always push a button and then say have a nice day ……. That’s a tease 😉

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like a mixed-bag weather-wise this wk.! I am kind of looking forward to the brief warm-up. I certainly am looking forward to more snow, but for me, sub-zero temps. can take a vacation ’til nxt. yr. But I don’t see that happening. I still see a lot more winter coming this season.

  12. Winter Weather Advisories up for a good chunk of SNE minus the I-95 corridor south and east. Even though no advisory up for those areas I still would not rule out slick spots tomorrow.

  13. I’m sorry, but this doesn’t make sense to me.

    The warming is coming aloft and moving in SW to NE, yet
    areas way to the SW, subject to warming, get the advisory, yet
    Boston far to the NE of these areas does not? Huh?
    Are they expecting boundary layer issues and a change to rain due to that?
    ??????????????? What up?

  14. I am thinking they expect a change to plain rain and there won’t be much in the way of wintry precipitation. I could see them issuing a short term winter weather advisory tomorrow. I don’t think the cold is going to give up that quickly and to me models underestimate the strength of cold air.

  17. Ok. Uncle. I’m ready for summer.

    Boston has so much useless salt on surfaces. It’s making things look like Berlin before the wall fell, plus it’s cutting my dogs paws!

    1. Well plan on more salt tomorrow, but the midweek rain should wash a lot of it away just in time for more salt this weekend.

        1. Explain, everything’s white and has salt on it plus with temps being above freezing for the following 48hrs I don’t think there gonna need salt, hope all is well 🙂

          1. Charlie salt in the ground that is white is melted salt. We have white everywhere here but white roads will not help if there is any sort of slippery mix. Common sense. I think there are times it may be overdone but when is it overdone if it saves so much as one life I will bow to John on what needs to be done and to others who make the decision

          2. The salt has been blown off the surface of the main road I love on by passing cars. These roads will need treatment on Monday evening, even if it’s just for a few hours.

  18. I don’t think Boston sees an inch but anyone that does will getwashed down the drain Tue and Wed, have a good night 🙂

    1. Charlie I so much disagree with you. Boston is slated to get the most anywhere from 2-4 inches. No way they come under an inch. My guess is 2-3 inches but going with 2.5

        1. They’ll need treatment pretty much everywhere for the Monday evening commute. The ground is COLD. Friday night’s snow, as brief as it was, and only 0.2 inch here at that, was enough to make untreated roads quite slick for a few hours.

          Boston gets at least enough frozen at the start to slick things up if they are not treated.

          1. I was thinking that its been a long time since I’ve heard the snow cold enough to squeak when you drive over it. Or even walk on it. Kind of cool

        2. You think. You don’t think boston will receive an inch. You never been called dude before, its not a bad thing dude, lol. I like you Charles you just seem to not give the storms a chance. But than again I always credit you for your good forecasting. Your defiantly in the top five. Time will tell Charles. I think Boston gets atleast two.

  19. To battle the storms it always starts with salt or liquid, always. It’s the very first thing we put down at the hospital. You keep bare ground as long as you can, in this line of work bare ground is what your shooting for. Charles seven news just said 1-2 for Boston.

  20. snow turns to an icy mix of snow,sleet and freezing rain.
    snow to rain south and east of boston.
    snow changes to an icy mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain from southwest to northeast.
    followed by the rain line wich will reach the mass pike by midnight.
    a general 1-3 inches of snow for most of massachusetts but less than 1 inch south and east of boston . highest amounts interior northeast massachusetts. interior northeast mass, and north central mass could see freezing rain/sleet to end the first event. ice acreations up to .25 of an inch of ice could fall north of the mass pike and outside of 128 and west of i95. the highest amount of ice should be in north central mass where the longest part of the ice event will be. areas in northeast mass and the berks could be spared do to the longer period of snow.

    wednesday the front moves north just north of the mass boarder which allows a south wind to really pick up and draw warm moist air into the region allowing temps to rise into the 50s. scatered showers can not be ruled out tuesday afternoon through wednesday as the front stalls in the region. probably right around the mass pike. tuesdays highs will bei n the 40s and 50s to the south and the 30s and 40s to the north of the pike. periods of drizzle and light rain could form. a cold front/area of low pressure moves through the region giving the area much needed rainfall before colder and drier air filters in as a north west wind forms. Looks like a similar pattern of what we have been dealing with this past week. the pv looks a little to strong to allow that ground hog storm to position it self just right to give us a good snow storm
    tomorrow afternoon through tuesday morning will be difficult be careful out there

    travel difficulties on a 1-5 scale
    2.5 expecially north and west of boston

  21. TK, will that Winter Weather Advisory eventually be expanded into the Boston area by tomorrow and will the record high of 63 set in 1914 be threatened on Wednesday?

    1. I think the advisory will stop just shy of the city and I do not think the record for Wed will be tied or beaten.

      2. Thanks TK…so does that mean that Boston will pretty much escape any snow issues with road conditions and getting about in general for tomorrow afternoon/evnening?

        1. Not tk but no. Boston receives 1-2 inches. Plan on hazardous travel anytime after 4pm. Boston I am guessing comes in at 2inches.

  22. The long range CPC outlook continues to show below normal temps and above precip, but I am still concerned about the +NAO that is also consistent.

    Also I find it interesting to see so many dirty cars and T buses even though only 7″+ of snow has fallen at Logan so far. Other than the more persistent cold temps, it is still pretty much like last year IMO.

      1. Not thru the car wash right?? Have it detailed and then get the proper equip to wash on your own. What color is it?

        1. Your post was confusing. No need for a detail its brand new. Went to the car wash to get the salt off. Its black with chrome 18inch tires. I bought a package that put a special coating on exterior to protect from acid rain, sap and bird crap. Also scotch guarded interior and guarantee spill comes up or gets reapolstered. Also came. With 5 complete details.

          2. Sorry for confusing. I’ve Learned never to have my car touched by a dealer especially if black. I have it detailed by a professional as soon as I drive it off lot. And never ever use a car wash. If they have something to protect it for that long they have discovered the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. My car is black. It’s the worst color to maintain/keep from showing age. But I do love black.

              1. I just talked to my SIL. He said the package u got usually goes for about $500. And it might last a year. He is obsessive about his trucks. And that is putting it mildly. He said hopefully you have a 5 yr guarantee at best including for fading – important for black

                2. Just telling you the truth. My guess is if u r using car wash you are more like I was before SIL drove me nuts which is probably healthier

    2. From what I’m hearing the first two weeks of February look to be cold, and possibly the months first snow storm Saturday night.

  25. I tell ya it feels a lot better out there tonight compared to last night. It was freezing out last night.

  26. Not sure if someone asked this…when should this end tomorrow? From what I am reading on other sites this seems like a quick mover…

    1. I heard the same thing. Not exactly sure on time but I think by 10pm for Boston if not before. Master tk can give a more exact time.

    2. Over by about midnight. One area of precip may try to hang on across northeastern MA and southeastern NH but that should be it.

      NWS forecasts make it look like Tuesday is a wet day everywhere but I don’t think much falls then.

  27. Someone mentioned the dirty cars. Good point. There’s way too much use of salt. While it is more effective than sand at melting snow, it’s corrosive to cars, bad for the environment (especially plant life), and dirty as you know what. There’s absolutely no need for so much use of salt on our roadways. The other day there was more salt on the road than snow. That’s bordering on ridiculous.

    1. Yeah we’ve seen black cars totally white…considering the lack of snow we’ve had it’s amazing.

  28. This is a New England week of weather. About as classic as can be. Very hard to duplicate anywhere else in the world. I’ll go out on a limb and say that nowhere in the world will there be as much weather happening – in terms of variety of precipitation, temperature swings, wind, etc … as this week in Southern New England.

    1. You may very well be right. And dont forget we start with a snow event and possibly end with a snow event.

  29. I keep hearing about a +NAO that can’t cause a major snowstorm. Just go back and look at history and you will notice several major events with a +NAO. March 12-15 1993 had a positive NAO. Just look in the history books folks.

    1. I’ve never been stuck on the NAO thing. Your chances increase with a -NAO, but many, many sizeable snows have come with a + one.

  30. I know people don’t like the salt including myself. But if you need to go out in a storm say for an emergency, you’ll be glad that the salt was applied. I know it stinks but just one of those things. Believe me I agree the salt just makes things look gross.

      1. You need to use the car wash during the winter. I shut my outside water off after Halloween till the spring. I plan on doing myself once it gets warmer. Time for bed. I probably will not be back home till Tuesday night, I won’t be. Take care Vicki.

    1. TK, since you feel there will be no advisory for Boston, does that mean snow will not be much of an issue tomorrow afternoon/evening like the interior areas?

      1. I think it may be a case of right in the immediate city, like right downtown, may be ok. They’ll be ready for it anyway. If you head to the outskirts (Hyde Park, West Roxbury, etc.) then you’ll see slick roads that have not been treated. As you go further west and north the slick road issue will be more widespread.

        John is right about the salt treatments being most effective. One of my best friends and his father have been involved in road treatment and plowing for years. I’ve ridden with the son several times when he went plowing. Learned quite a bit about it.

        As much as I hate the idea of loading the roads with salt, it does work. But we live in a society that apparently needs to be out and about all the time, so there you have it. 🙂

        1. TK. How will it be north of here along the Maine coast to here?

          I’ve been reading and sand can be as harmful as salt. However there are techniques developed in Canada that are not as harmful and more efficient. I need to read more however.

          1. The one common denominator is salt increases the salt content of all water in the vicinity. But sand clogs areas between layers of rocks where beneficial creatures live. Yep we are doing a dandy job taking care of our earth.

          2. Vicki, sand and kitty litter don’t wash away like salt does. No matter how much rain falls you literally have to sweep it all up come spring to get rid of it. I know from experience which is why I use nothing but salt around my property.

            1. That’s what I read. And i agree. But salt pollutes the water and is hard on any animals feet and on vegetation, etc. when it washes away it goes into our water supply. So Both are bad but there are ways to make salt friendlier.

              1. I agree. The only way it’s “better” is its effectiveness. But at what cost?

                There has to be a better way.

          3. I expect that area to be slippery for several hours. It may never really warm up there until later Tuesday, so it may be slippery on untreated surfaces for quite a while.

  32. Sand does not melt snow/ice, only salt does. Once sand goes down, it has to be swept up, and the sand then becomes classified as a solid waste, which strictly limits where it can be disposed.

    They key is to put salt down early as anti-icer, rather than on top of snow and becoming deicer. The more you melt, the less you plow.

    You just have to use the right amount of salt. Not too much, not too little.

  34. both salt and sand is bad. sand makes the sides of the road sandy but salt actually does alot of damage do to the chemicals.

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