Tuesday AM Update

203 Comments

7:23AM

Making a few changes to timing and a minor forecast tweak, which is the reason for this update. Highlights include…

* Low pressure passing north of the area tonight/Wednesday with enough warm air for a rain event mainly tonight.

* 2 cold fronts passing on Wednesday, the second possibly producing snow showers as cold air returns.

* Unsettled weekend but precipitation may hold off until Saturday night and Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 42-47. Wind SW under 10 MPH early shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, may be briefly moderate to heavy, ending west to east by around or shortly after midnight (a bit later Cape Cod). Breaking clouds west to east after the rain. Lows 32-37. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 32-37. Wind W 15-30 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 36.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain at night. Low 24. High 38.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 28. High 34.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

203 thoughts on “Tuesday AM Update”

  2. Temp has skyrocketed in last 1 hr when it was 17.1 degrees at 6:45 and now it’s 23.4 degrees, it’s gonna be a mild day today or at least feel mild with some coming close to 50 degrees esp southeastern mass and ri

  4. Looking forward to hearing peoples’ thoughts on the weekend storm. I’m hoping it will be an inland runner with rain or OTS so that weekend plans don’t get canceled…

  5. Thanks TK – for the blog, your thoughts, AND holding the weekend storm (whatever it may be) until after the baby shower 😉

  6. Loads of question regarding the weekend potential.

    0Z Euro still slides it underneath us. I guess I won’t worry until
    that model trends it Northward.

    Certainly a watcher.

    1. 0Z Euro:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144

      06Z GFS:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_132_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

      0Z Nogaps

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/00znogaps850mbTSLPp12132.gif

      0Z Canadian

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06132.gif

      The Canadian wants to get, but the others do not suggest that at all.

      We’ll see what develops.

    2. OS, see my post below. The Euro has continued to trend northward and is close enough (and cold enough) now for a fairly big impact to SNE.

  8. Thanks TK. I think the pastor at my church is praying extra hard for no snow on Sunday. We’ve already missed two weeks of services and a third may just throw him over the edge.

  9. Funny though that Channel 7 is STILL saying this will be a big storm and will be plowable. Odd since most of the models this early on now show it offshore.

  10. From NWS in Upton NY. Looks like we got two watchers.
    THE 00Z
    ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES….BUT THE
    ECWMF LOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
    GFS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SCENARIO CHANGES THE PCPN BACK OVER TO
    ALL SNOW BEFORE THE STORM PASSES TO THE EAST SUN AFT. THE GFS IS
    FARTHER SOUTH AND ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER…WHICH IS BIG DEAL WHEN YOU
    ARE DEALING WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS. IRONICALLY…BY 00Z
    MON…THE ECWMF…GFS…AND GEFS ARE ALL ON TOP OF EACH OTHER WITH
    THE LOW SOUTH OF 40N…AND EAST OF 70W. BLOCKING TO THE NORTH LOOKS
    TO PREVENT THIS LOW FROM IMPACTING MUCH MORE THAN SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. OF COURSE…THERE ARE MANY DETAILS WITH PLENTY OF
    UNCERTAINTIES TO DEAL WITH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME…BUT THE WEEKEND
    LOOKS TO BE INCLEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF
    WINTER WEATHER.

  11. Here is the snow output from the 0z Euro. It depicts a potential for a foot of snow over portions of CT, RI, and SE MA. 9-12″ south of the Pike. Boston metro ranging from 6-9″ with 3-6″ northern suburbs and north shore.

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=192269

    The Euro operational run has support from its ensembles as well.

    The Canadian is showing a fairly big hit as well but tracks the low even closer to the coast, bringing p-type issues to CT/RI/SE MA and focusing the heavier snows over MA, southern NH and VT. Below is a model depiction of the Canadian showing the rain/snow line at its closest pass Sunday…

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=192246

  12. As the NWS out of Upton said this is not the only POTENTIAL storm system to watch over the next week.
    The keys are the track of course and how strong the low pressure on the coast is since the cold air is marginal.

  13. Consider myself corrected on the Euro.

    That’s why need to look at precip maps. I didn’t and it looked too far South to me.

    Apparently, NOT so. My Bad.

    I guess we keep on watching.

    😀

    1. Hey OS, if you go to the Weather Undergound maps and look at the 126-141 hour period, you can see the heavy precip sweep through southern New England on Sunday. Those Meteocentre maps and charts on the Alan Huffman site are at 24 hour increments and you just can’t see what is going on in between. The storm on the Euro actually tracks NE off the midatlantic coast, then changes trajectory to the east, and then eventually veers southeast due to the blocking. Takes kind of a parabolic path….very odd. Really need the 3 hour increment maps to see it.

      1. Looking at the 6hr. increments shows it coming right at us basically hitting the benchmark and bouncing off of it to the E/SE like a pinball bumper.

  14. From the link you posted Mark it looks like I am in a good spot at the moment. Of course this will change with so many model runs to go between now and the weekend.

    1. Yeah, at 4-5 days out things are bound to change but something is definitely brewing for the weekend. I do not see this going out to sea and being a complete miss.

  16. It is somewhat surprising that Melissa in her blog mentions DST beginning in less than 3 weeks but says absoutely nothing about the weekend storm potential. I am not saying she should be getting into specifics by any means being several days out but a few early thoughts on her part would have been nice. Just my opinion.

    Fwiw, JR on the other hand is already putting out all the stops….plowable snow for Saturday night/Sunday!

  17. I heard on the national news this morning that due to global warming, the northeast can expect less snow but more blizzards in the coming winters.

    more blizzards = less snow?? ❓

    1. Blizzards don’t always mean a great amount of snow, I suppose, but I would imagine that storms that are of that magnitude of sustained winds, DO tend to carry a greater amount of precip?

      But what do I know.

      2. Thanks – shotime – it makes sense to me and is in line with what I have been reading for a while – however, this article has it all in one place. Very nice. I should also add it’s in line with what I’ve been seeing as well.

  18. The low forming on the east coast not only needs to track to the benchmark but needs to be strong to make its own cold air since there is no real cold air in place for this system to work with it. If this does affect us I don’t see a snowstorm for SNE but rather a poppouri of precipitation.

    2. JJ, I will live and die by what the Euro says on this storm until it proves me wrong and right now it says snowstorm, so that is where I am putting my money at the moment. With the blocking in place, I think this is a SNE event, not northern NE. And I like what the Euro is doing in slowing this system down, which enables the storm to become more amplified and in turn draw down the colder air.

        1. TK, just so I understand – you are going with a colder solution storm oppose to a rain/mix in the Boston area?

    3. Yes, that is what I see. A significant storm, possibly. But mostly rain at the coast and snow well inland and on higher terrain. A typical March or April nor’easter, if you will. I think you (JJ) will get some snow out of this one, but the Boston area will not (just a lot of cold rain). This said, things can change and often do. And, we’re not talking about the need for a lot to change for there to be snow in and around Boston (several degrees colder at the surface).

        1. You’re right.

          Please note, I did qualify my expectation. Things can change.

          Needless to say, if the storm rode up the coast Thursday, there’d be some cold air to work with, in addition to the system’s ability to `make its own.’ Alas, whatever’s left on Saturday into Sunday from the relatively cold air mass will be quite `stale’ and marginal at best. That’s how I see it right now, with the caveat mentioned above. By the way, this winter has featured a few events that mimicked spring storms. The one in late December was much more like a March storm than a late December one.

  19. It will be interesting to see what the 12z EURO says. Looking at the NAO chart this appears to be the first storm system to POTENTIALLY effect us with blocking in place. I am rooting for a snowstorm but its too early for me to jump aboard the snowstorm train.

  20. Well I think no matter what happens we are not meant to have a baby shower. The crews are here today to dry out the area where we had a leak (in a mudroom closet – no big deal) and didn’t they find water in the wall and maybe floor of the adjoining family room. So that wall has to be cut. It’ll be lovely viewing for the shower guests.

    I am now officially in the camp of not wanting to see snow again this season. My family has made me actually sign something admitting to saying that since they know I absolutely love snow.

    1. Sorry to hear that Vicki. At least it looks like this storm will hold off for you and be more focused on late Sat night/Sunday.

    3. I feel bad Vicki. That’s my biggest gripe with snow…when rain ends, it ends…after a snowstorm you could have hundred of gallons of water (albeit frozen) sitting on your roof. All it takes is a small leak somewhere.

    4. Sorry to hear that, Vicki. It’s bad enough having to deal with weather related property damage, but even worse when you have an event such as a shower planned. Not too worry, I’m sure the guest won’t mind any signs of work in progress. It’s going to be a lovely party. How could it not be with you as the hostess 🙂

      1. awww you are all very special people. Thank you very much! You gave me big wide smiles and I think you are right shotime that the guests won’t mind. And weatherwiz….it is really hard for me to say but it seems no matter what we do to our roof we still get snow so I’m with you on snows after affects.

  21. 12z Canadian maintains a relatively close pass but is less amplified than the 0z run and as a result, has less precip and is way too warm with rain all the way north into southern NH. Not buying it….

  25. Here’s a report on the coldest inhabited villages on earth (Russia, of course):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21500649

    -67 celsius or -88 fahrenheit. Yes, even I wouldn’t get up to do my morning run there.

    By the way, now that we’re converting from C to F, I’ve always wondered why the models refer to O degree lines (obviously, 0 is referring to the freezing point in celsius) . When I was in Holland, several meteorologist friends of mine really liked the Fahrenheit scale, especially the smaller increments. I found an article on the pros and cons of each scale. I’m including an excerpt, which I’ve edited (note, I strongly prefer the Fahrenheit scale; and I’m accustomed to both Celsius and Fahrenheit):

    In 1714, the German scientist Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit replaced the existing water and alcohol thermometers with a mercury-based instrument. Not only did he improve the accuracy of thermometers, he expanded the range of the instrument significantly.

    Fahrenheit set “zero” at the lowest temperature he could create in his laboratory, a point at which water will freeze even if mixed with sand. Keeping zero where it was, the freezing point of water on the Fahrenheit scale turned out to be 32 degrees, and the boiling point of water, 212. The difference between the two was 180 degrees, a number easy to work with mathematically (half a circle, for instance, is 180 degrees of arc). Of course, not as convenient as the interval on the Swedish scientist Anders Celsius’s scale: 100.

    Though most of the world uses the Celsius scale, the Fahrenheit scale may be better suited to meteorology. For one thing, it is more precise and less coarse simply because each degree represents a smaller interval. Important during events like this upcoming weekend’s possible storm, when the difference between 32 and 33 is meaningful and not picked up as well on the Celsius scale. And, the range in temperature from 0 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit pretty much demarcates the extremes found in the climates of Western Europe and most of the United States; it rarely gets hotter or colder. This is an aspect I really like about Fahrenheit.

  26. 12z Euro still has the storm but looks a little weaker and further south than 0z. Tough to tell on the 24 map increments – waiting on the Wunderground maps to get into that time range….

  27. I’ll be honest I think these next couple systems r missing ingredients for a snowstorm, I also think feb ends average or slightly above average, alot of old cold air as Tim Kelly would put it, alotta melting 46.8 degrees

      1. OS…just wanted to say…appreciate you being on the maps. 🙂 I don’t often know how to read them, but I know I can count on you to get them posted!

        1. Yep, definitely further south. A sideswipe on that run. Still early though, and things will likely adjust as we get closer.

          1. Yeah, hard to figure out qpf at the moment. Maybe between .25 nd .50

            That run shows a tongue of precip. hanging back while OTS.

            Waiting for rest of graphics to finish up and will have a better handle on it.

    1. got a look at snow graphics for 12z King.

      1″ coast, 3″ 495, 6″ hills (roughly)

      If it’s too light, coastal plain will be battling B.L. temps.

      Lots more runs to go but euro is picking something up.

      Has big rainstorm as of now for that March 1 “thing”

          1. Ok, good, I think our basement can handle that… provided there isn’t a massive snowpack ready to melt and supplement the rainfall. (I think we only started getting water in the house after about 4-5″ of rain in March 2010.)

        1. Sorry O.S. no links. It’s accu-pro which I highly suggest checking out because everything is right there with seemingly endless plot types. I’m on it for the 30 day “free” but at $25.00 per month, I think I’ll keep it. It’s as entertaining to me as my Sirius radio for almost the same money.

  31. You sure rainstorm retrac. Looks cold to me for the March event. I guess it depends on where it goes. From 240 +

    Back from skiing and the little guy had a blast. Awaiting 4-8 inches over the next two days. A lot of icy spots so they need it.

    1. Right, I mean 240 hrs…not even the king is that good! Just for kicks though it does show a “mild” storm with 40-45 2m temps with 32f line all the way up in God’s country (where you are right now Hadi)

      2. Why nothing but rain, negative tilt would mean drawing in the cold air. Semantics at this point as its 10 days out.

  33. Charlie, I’d be surprised if February came in above normal. It’s below normal now. And, remember, the average high should be around 40 today, and 42 by the end of the month. I’m not seeing temps above that (except today).

  36. Hey, We’re under 40F:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Feb 19 2013, 2:50 pm EST
    Tue, 19 Feb 2013 14:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 44.1 °F (6.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.5 °F (0.3 °C)
    Wind: South at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
    Wind Chill: 37 F (3 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1013.7 mb
    Water Temperature: 39.6 °F (4.2 °C)

  37. OS, some of those GFS Ensembles nail us pretty good. One thing they all agree on, we have an impact to some degree from this storm over the weekend.

  39. Hadi/OS/retrac –

    A comment on your discussion above regarding the 3/1 storm. The 12z Euro, while too warm and clearly a rain producer, is an improvement over the 0z run if you are looking for a big east coast winter storm. The 0z run had a powerful primary low tracking to our west over Buffalo while the 12z run is further east and has coastal redevelopment off the Mid Atlantic. Perhaps a trend but still far out. Also, I did not see the 12z Euro ensembles, but the 0z Euro ensembles were much colder than the operational run and had the storm much further south and east. I have a feeling that something big is brewing for someone on the eastern seaboard during that 3/1-3/2 time period.

  44. High pressure wrapped all around it – no where to go.

    If only it weren’t the GFS!

    Time for the King to do his bidding now.

    1. Say it ain’t so TK – you feeling ok?

      If so, I’ll be buying Hadi a beer. Cheap money for a good snowstorm.

  46. 2 things:

    1) The weekend storm may be determined by the dreaded Norlun.

    2) Long range, but watch out for the first few days of March.

    1. Looks more like 2-2.5″ in eastern MA! However, it tracks so close to the coast that it’s too warm for all snow in many areas, esp CT, RI and SE MA.

      1. Yeah, I was being conservative with an income average for all of SNE from NH border and south. Can you imagine what the qpf rich NAM would plot out down the road if this plays out. So far to go!

      1. Will c, like I said yesterday the next storm will be mainly rain for the Boston to Providence corridor, now I know alot of you don’t like what I say if it’s not a snow producer, owell tell it how I see it, have a great night ds 😉

        1. Not true at all. I could care less about rain, snow, etc. in fact I would LOVE a super rainstorm to clear away the snow and salt.

          It’s the calling winters end when clearly it’s not that I take issue with.

          Have nice night!

  52. Pouring here in Mystic, CT. Snuck in a decent weather day before showers arrived and have no evolved into heavy rain. Temps in mid 40s. Its nice down here, may have to return during April break.

    1. Hi Tom. You are hitting areas we love yet again. My daughter did a lot of horse shows in mystic and we moms did a lot of exploring – when we were not holding horses :). Have a perfect time.

      1. Thanks Vicki. Its our first exploration down in Mystic and we are impressed. Stuffed ourselves yesterday at Mystic Pizza (a slice of heaven) and spent most of today at the Mystic Aquarium and it was worth every penny. One more day tomorrow, then returning.

        It is amazing how so close to the ocean there are open fields, some farmland, I can see where there would be horse shows down here. It certainly is a beautiful area.

        1. We moms got lost one day and ended up driving by magnificent old homes of the wealthy. It was great fun. And we loved mystic pizza :).

        2. I loved going down to Mystic Aquarium when I was young. It was a nice day trip. It brought back memories as I saw on the highway Saturday driving to Foxwoods.

  53. 18z gfs is a HUGE rain producer for Boston to Providence south and east, boundary layer issues not to top off it might be about freezing in Boston for over 2/3’s the storm, ways to go, will see what happens 🙂

      1. bonston is in the blue which is 3-6 inches. on that run
        I do have to say that the gfs has had this system either a rain storm or a snowstorm. dreaded norlun trough.

  56. Trough set up between the main area of low pressure to developing low pressure to the south? for this weekend system?

  57. Charlie really calling the end of winter ? Not every year is like the last two when it comes to march. I believe this storm had a better chance of missing vs. producing rain in Boston. Maybe around south coast but my concern is a miss.

    1. Almost I’m looking though eyeing long range models and trends, since I have a chance I wanna say you r good for this blog and enjoy conversating, 🙂

    1. Totally worth it. Wait till you see what its got for outputs. And it’s all right there. No scouring the internet for all of the sources or going blind looking for all of the sites in you favorites each time. You can really “dig deep” with it. To me, it’s missing nothing. It’s free for 30 days. I don’t drink coffee and at only $25.00/month I look at it as my cheaper cup of coffee I can enjoy 24/7. (I should sell for them huh)

    1. Didn’t bother to look.

      B.T.W…..

      18z GFS unloads 2.5″ qpf of snow in Worcester and 1.2″ qpf of snow in Boston after getting 3″ of rain (Boston)

  62. By this time next week there’s a potential that all but like 5 or 6 states of the lower 48 won’t have snow somewhere in their state.

  63. Here’s the thing: My daughter has a HUGE interview in Valhalla, NY (Westchester county) on Monday morning. She’s in Delaware and the plan is to meet her in Stanford, CT, drive to Valhalla on Sunday. So, I drive down and she takes Amtrak up. Do we play it safe, swallow the hotel fees and go on Saturday???? And does anyone know what’s to do in Valhalla any which way?

    1. That’s a tough call Deb. I’d wait to make that call until probably Friday sometime. If we’re all happily freaking out Friday afternoon, then I’d think seriously about that. So, if you start seeing like 800 combined posts by Hadi calling for 60″, me being a knucklehead, O.S. posting 500 MB charts of weather on Mars, Mark keeping his cool, Coastal needling someone, Charlie calling for rain, A-Rod spazzing out on J.J. about a prediction, TK calling for 1-4, rainshine being sweet, Sue shaking her head and Vicki putting out crazy predictions on a spreadsheet…..I’d call a Days Inn.

      1. I know that didnt help deb but it was hysterical. Deb I wish you and your daughter luck. Me – I always ere on the side of caution 🙂

  64. Hi guys. I have only a minute to chime in. I actually like the latest GFS as well as the 0z EURO from early this morning as far as what I think will happen this upcoming weekend. We WILL be dealing with a storm but strength and exact track obviously cannot be exactly determined 5-6 days out. My best guess is that a coastal storm will remain close enough to SNE to provide most of the area with snow. I think an OTS solution remains least likely while a plowable snow solution (with the exception of the immediate coast line, SE MA and the Cape) is most likely. A warmer solution is also possible if the storm hugs the coast but I am leaning toward a closer scenario at this time. The strength of the storm remains the biggest question mark as to HOW MUCH snow potential becomes realized from this storm. We obviously will be able to fine tune the forecast as the weekend grows near. In summary, the jet looks to become more amplified resulting in a stronger, slower and snowier solution for interior southern NE away from the immediate coast line but we will need to watch for a rain/snow line near Boston if tilt becomes too negative. Best guess: Boston southwest, west and northwest remains ALL SNOW with more mixing/rain south and east of the BOS-PVD corridor resulting in 6+ inches of snow very late Saturday night and especially on Sunday. Nite all!

  66. We lost power again tonight in Plymouth so I am all set with any type of storm right now. Thankfully it was only for a few hours.

        1. Nstar said it was damage to some service wires but didn’t indicate the cause. It is raining but certainly not too windy.

    1. For sure, wish it was July, usually go to about 6-10 mini camps since they’ve started back years ago, it’s awesome!!! Love the game of football,, #1 sport 🙂

  69. From NWS:

    .THE EXITING HIGH IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GET COLD
    AIR DAMMING TO SET UP. NOTING A MAINLY E-SE FLOW TO START SAT
    NIGHT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO NE DURING SUNDAY…BUT APPEARS
    /FOR NOW/ TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MARITIME INFLOW WORKING FURTHER
    INLAND. SO…AT THIS POINT…LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY RAIN/SNOW
    SCENARIO WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

      1. hahahahahahaha…..

        See what I mean.

        You’re the best O.S.

        🙂 🙂

        And Hadi, you’re right, I left you short on that amount!

          1. C’mon man, I’m trying to write a lousy term paper section on “hedging and Jet fuel prices” for the airline industry. I can’t concentrate with belly laughs!

  71. Curious why the faith in the GFS? After the last two it’s been almost laughed off the blog…why the interest now?

  72. I thought the same thing… But if we all love snow then, maybe it’s more “hope” than faith. Not trying to start a fight just my 2 cents

    1. We shall see as the weekend approaches.

      We’re going to need some help to get all snow on the coast. 😀

  80. Euro fine-tuning itself to significant snow on Sunday. Been waiting for that move and there it is.

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