Weekend Storm Still Coming

233 Comments

5:48PM

Yes it’s still coming, despite some of you hearing over-reacting media saying one thing then another then back and forth again like a bungee cord holding a rock spray painted with the word “hype”. I hate to bust on the media but it just gets frustrating sometimes. Oh well. Enough rant and now onto the weather… 🙂

It looks like the developing storm will be a little weaker than previously expected, but still fully capable of throwing a moderate amount of precipitation across the forecast area, with a large area of it seeing several inches of heavy, wet snow, especially Saturday night and Sunday. This will still potentially impact the region with busted tree limbs and power lines, and will also be tough to move around (at least it’s not a foot plus of the heavy stuff). Areas most likely to be snow longest and see most of the accumulation will be away from the immediate coast and along and north of the Mass Pike. The overall idea of the storm and timing are still there, just to a little lesser degree than described in the last blog entry. Though minor coastal flooding issues may take places on east-facing shores Saturday night and north-facing shores Sunday morning, I’m not expecting anything too significant.

Still looks like a break early in the week between the weekend event and what may be a long-duration winter weather event as we head toward the beginning of March. I’ll discuss this a little more over the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows from 20 southern NH and interior MA valleys to 30 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Precipitation developing late in the day – mainly snow near and north of the Mass Pike except mix/rain immediate coast, mainly mix/rain to the south. Highs 35-40. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow northern areas, rain/mix to the south eventually turning to snow and may be slow to taper off during Sunday night. Accumulation of snow from under 1 inch Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to around 1 inch coastal RI and remainder of Cape Cod, 1-3 inches remainder of southern MA and central RI, 2-4 inches northern RI with isolated higher amounts possible in higher elevations, 3-6 inches across the balance of east central to northeastern MA into southern NH with a few 2 inch amounts immediate coast and a few 6+ inch amounts possible mainly in higher elevations interior MA and southern NH. Temperatures generally in the 30s. Wind backing from E to N averaging 10-20 MPH, some higher gusts possible mainly Cape Cod and the Islands.

MONDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Low 25. High 38.

TUESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Low 20. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix possible. Low 32. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Few rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix possible. Low 30. High 36.

233 thoughts on “Weekend Storm Still Coming”

  4. Thanks tk, well written, I mostly agree with all your snow predictions, my oringinal forecast had more rain for Boston to Providence corridor and though I still think some rain and sleet will mix in, it’s not as much as I was thinking, after the 00z nam run comes in and confirms this forecast I think we all will finally come into agreement, will c

  6. PB admits to a weaker storm but I’m still very confused. Snowfall amounts according to PB will range from 3-5 from just north of the SS throughout the rest of MA. Jackpot area is still over the northern worcester hills where 5-8 could fall, according to PB. Below is what he posted and you tell me how these numbers will verify:

    Startup mid/late PM Saturday. Light snow/mix/rain.
    Rain gets the upper hand and pushes the snow back beyond 495 late at night
    Cold gets back into the act and pushes the snow back to the South Shore by Sunday morning
    Light, nusiance snow through Sunday morning and early afternoon
    Splashover at high tide Sunday morning.
    Winds gust around 40mph at the coast Sunday

    1. How on earth does one end up with 5-8 or 3-5 for that matter when rain dominates Saturday night into Sunday morning and only ‘nuissance’ light snow through Sunday morning and early afternoon??? He wonders why the media takes the heat.

      1. He seemed a little confused by it all. I’m FB friends with him. I’ll see if I can get a reason.

        1. I’m glad you see what I mean TK. Perhaps it was just his wording but it really is getting out of control how bad these guys can sound at times.

          1. Yeah I can see that. I thought Pete has been good in his wording lately and he seemed off on this one. Maybe he read something nasty on the station’s FB page. The mudslingers are out there in full force. Got the typical “totally incompetent meteorologists” and “get paid to be wrong all the time” comments going on the WBZ FB page at the moment. It’s funny how brave people can be behind a phone or a keyboard but get these people in person and they’d melt into a puddle of mush thanks to a liquified back bone.

        2. Also, with the storm trending further offshore and weaker, I’m not sure coastal winds will come close to 40 mph. ??

            1. I agree that things like that shouldn’t be said. We are only human and we all make mistakes. However, the METS can control some of the stuff they put out there to the general public. Snow maps 4 days prior to a storm is fruitless. They put themselves in a bad position which is why the mudslingers appear when they are very wrong in the end. It could be pressure being felt by upper management, but whatever the reason, they should be prepared for uprise when they change snow maps more times than they change their underwear and in the end are still very wrong.

    2. I read it as snow to rain inside 495 and then snow at end and down to SS. Don’t know if you guys agree but that’s what it says IMhO

      1. I respectfully disagree Vicki. If you read closely, he says the rain gets pushed back ‘beyond’ 495 which translates to north and west of I495. He then goes on to say that by Sunday morning it will change back to snow all the way down to the southshore (obviously 495 first and then the southshore) but the snow will be a nuisance light snow from sunday morning into the afternoon. Either way you interpret it, it doesn’t seem likely that 3-5, 5-8 inch amounts could be realized if that were to verify. Even TK was a bit confused by the wording. It doesn’t much matter at this point anyhow, 😀

        1. It says rain pushes snow back but its a moot point. As you know I am not a fan of critiquing any of the mets since we do not walk in their shoes. Im also not a fan of critiquing each other. And as you know Pete happens to be my favorite although I like and respect all Just my opinion and not a surprise as I’ve said the same many times.

          1. Unfortunately, Pete and the other METS are too enthusiastic with concerning the public with big storms that often do not occur. I like Pete too, but whether he is a favorite or not, he and others were incorrect in putting out snow maps 4 days before an event. I agree to disagree Vicki 😀 That’s just my opinion

            1. The problem is that you and I have no idea whether its mandated by the management so its difficult to say anything is wrong. Every met did the same. It wasn’t just Pete. I guess i just am more comfortable going to them directly with a concern rather than discuss it in a public blog. I actually sent Pete an email today and asked if he read this blog. I’m now sorry I did. Sorry. That’s just my opinion and doesn’t make it right. We will have to agree to disagree

    1. I know people that would see this and immediately start telling everyone “we’re gonna get 30 inches of snow next week!” ……

  11. In general agreement with TK. Fortunately I was on the conservative end of the forecast envelope, but of course I usually am. Generally just shifted everything down by an inch or so each end.

    2. Having the same style is a good part of the reason we often agree on a forecast with usually only minor differences.

      1. It’s called being intelligent even though it irritates me at times when I feel you’re too conservative 😉

        1. I stayed to that style here but it may turn out that I was not conservative enough…

          I need to take a “Bill Hovey Pill” next time. Anyone remember Mr. Hovey on Ch 5? 🙂

          1. LOL Bill Hovey, yes I remember him. Didn’t he reside up in the Lakes Region of NH and made the Trek down here? 😀

            1. I believe that is true. I liked him, but people often used the word “bland” to describe is on-air delivery. He certainly was not excitable.

              1. I certainly didn’t dislike him, but he was not memorable in the sense that I thought he was one of the best. 😀

            2. Yes ! Dont know how my dad did it, but we got into Ch 5 and met Bill Hovey, toured the weather area (I might have been about 12 yrs old) and watched the newscast. It was a very cool experience !!

  12. I remember Hovey, weekends at 5 in the 80’s. We moved here from the midwest and have pretty clear memories of those late 70’s – late 80’s weather teams from 4 and 5. Major inspirations and influences they were. My first introduction to New England weather was the May ‘ 77 snow storm.

    1. JMA. If you don’t mind I ask. Are you a professional meteorologist? If yes, do you air for a network?

      1. He is too good not to be a professional. Just a question of
        Where. And if he isn’t, he sure should be. 😀

      2. Yes to the first one. I have a BS from North Carolina State and MS from the University of Wisconsin.

        I am not an on-air meterologist for a network.

          1. I consider myself very fortunate to be part of this incredible group of not only professional meteorologists, but also extremely talented weather enthusiasts! You’re all awesome 🙂

      1. Spring 77 and Winter 78 for an introduction to New England weather and even earlier memories of Iowa tornados were the ignition for fascination with all things weather.

  13. Hey Retrac,

    Great job with the Images, Most especially the eye candy!! Totally awesome!!
    Keep em coming!

    AND we know what it is. I post the NAM and GFS snow maps all the time, knowing
    FULL WELL they would never materialize as is. I like to see what “could” be IF
    everything worked out perfectly.

    NICE!!! and thanks

    1. Thanks O.S.

      Out with my wife. Best part……kids at in-laws…….overnight….

      Hope to be home for 00z and sneak in a post!

      3. Maybe someone knows this…there was a meterologist on NECN in the early days…think he was Italian or had an accent…he was “let go” and on his last day made a point of saying he never sensationalized winter storms…that we live in NE and they happen every year so why make a huge deal out of it. I read this like he was saying he was being let go because he refused make a big deal out of it.

          1. Yes! Thanks…that’s him. I happened to watch his last forecast and that’s what he was talking about. I might be wrong, but it sounded like he wasn’t buying into management pressure to hype snowstorms.

              1. Yeah its Fulvio. Don’t know him. Maybe saw him once or twice as I was not living here at the time, but my brother was tight with Phil Balboni the former NECN boss and I remember his name coming up and it was memorable or at least somewhat memorable…

  15. Actually it is Fulvio Fabrizi and he works at MIT Lincoln Labs currently. He was on both NECN and Ch 5.

      1. LOL! Nope. The Mount Zion Gang is made up of myself, and my 2 best friends Lynda and Emily (Emily comments on this blog on a frequent basis). We’re an unlikely group of friends that have a blast galavanting around southern and central New England, especially in the summer, going to beaches and fireworks, etc. 😉

        1. Emily always makes me smile. I think you do not have to know her to understand she sees life in a special and happy way.

      1. You’d be surprised at the scope of my memory (mostly for useless facts).

        I can tell you right now that the tree in my back yard was struck by lightning at 8:37AM Tuesday June 29 1982.

        I can also tell you that the license plate of Mr. Brady’s convertible in The Brady Bunch was TEL 635

        1. I guess !

          My wife has DVR’d many Brady Bunch episodes and my kids have gotten into the show. I’ll have to check that out next time they have it on, seems the car pulls into the driveway at some point in every episode.

          1. Bready Bunch rules. Funny how the “big” problems on the show were lying…cheating…maybe cigarettes. Far cry from the drugs, pregnancy, gangs, and weapons in schools now… 🙂

              1. I love brady bunch. And I also love leave it to beaver reruns. My girls do also. It’s welcome after all the stuff in tv today

  16. We need to start our own weather tv station with TK and JMA running the meteorological side. I can do sales 🙂 others can do marketing etc….

    Retrac so I guess you are posting certain things. Accu pro is awesome!!! OS you would be beyond excited to see this stuff. Storm for next looks great so far. Temps are fine, lots of QPF. Critical thickness is fine for most of the area.

    2. And next time we have a 2 foot storm JMA and I can have an on-air bet like J.R. & Pete did on Ch 7, guessing the snow amount and the loser buying the winner a pizza. 😛

        1. J.R. .. Pete guessed 22, J.R. guessed 25, and of course they had 24.9 inches. The 3 of us joked a bit about it on FB last week.

    3. I would like to apply and would be grateful to be hired ….. however, I must have mid June thru late August off to camp, etc. 🙂 🙂 🙂 I am capable of public speaking with confidence and am used to managing and inspiring learning in 125 new people each year.

      1. Got it …. I want to be the weather person out in the field. I can take the camper on the road …. Southward for the hurricanes, northward for the intense cold, westward for the drought !! I’ll homeschool my kids in math, my wife can teach them everything else.

        I really need school to start back Monday ! We’ve had the whole month of February off, it seems.

        1. Yeah we’ll have to have one person in Worcester…another on the Cape, and another downtown. Usually on the side of a main road, and occassionally bend down to pick up snow to demonstrate the consistency…HAHA.

          1. Hrm. On a scale of 1 to 10, how nervous should I be about a 7:45pm flight out of Logan on 2/28? Is there enough of a window between the Wednesday storm and the longer one to feel secure?

    1. As long as it’s something coming from the net that anybody could access there should be no issue whatsoever.

      The questionable content would be re-posting things that you paid for to get. Many places get a bit cranky about that. 🙂

  20. Anyone notice the radar? Looks like some snow showers coming through MA. Could just be virga and not hitting the ground.

  21. For the most part it really doesn’t matter to me what anybody posts.

    I’m pretty confident none of us are taking any of it and using it for profit. 🙂

  22. How Matt Noyes snowfall map will verify if this 0z NAM run is correct (unless something takes place after hr 27) puzzles me. It looks like very light precip in northern Mass points northward.

  23. Someone opened up the blast furnace on the NAM!!!
    WOW!! Is it ever WARMER! I can’t believe there is that much of a change.

    It’s beginning to look like the crappy GFS is right. How funny is that?
    😀

    1. I dont know, I think there’s enough trend and evidence to take down the WSW, put up advisories and someone out there in an elevated spot gets 3-6 ?

  26. One thing is now for certain (as I mentioned in the previous blog) is that Boston’s record for most snowfall in the month of February (41.3″) will remain intact with no problem and the current (32.0″) will be hard pressed to move much higher if at all from its #7 spot. The next snow potential will not occur (if at all) until Friday March 1st (too bad this is not a leap year).

    The first snow maps for the Friday potential: Monday @ 11:00 pm newscasts. 😀

    TK, I can see why you never tried to go into TV broadcasting. Stay here with your blog please. 🙂

  27. Hey WeatherWiz! I’m heading over to the mountain. Probably going through the McD’s drive thru to grab one of my friends a snack about 25 min from now. 🙂

  28. I remember Bill Hovey as well…is he actually still with us? He always seemed “old” to me but a good met.

  29. Well, after seeing that, I wouldnt be surprised if we saw yet lower snow amts on the 10pm and 11pm newscasts. Maybe ???

  30. TK, earlier you seemed a bit “concerned” for Pete regarding his latest forecast. I was wondering as well as to why so much snow (3-5″) with a good deal of rain in the middle. Let us know if he is OK. 🙂

    1. Pete will be fine. And the typical mudslingers will sling mud.

      My goodness, when a rain event wimps out and we get 1/4 inch instead of 3/4 of an inch, nobody notices. Toss in snow, and everyone goes off their gourd. Funny to watch, if nothing else. 🙂

  33. Conversely, that storm in the Plains looks like it could provide big snows and severe weather late weekend, early next week.

    I have no idea what its future is beyond that.

    If the King is still showing a 971mb low over the benchmark next Thursday, for 24 hrs later on Friday, then and only then should snowmaps be allowed. 🙂

    2. Cant do that Tom 🙂 if the euro is locked in for several days, that’s something we can talk about.

  35. Just watched NECN and 9:45pm weather segment. I believe he saw the latest NAM. I think he does an excellent job explaining the latest data/guidance.

  36. From Pete B.:

    “Now before you go slinging mud, keep this in mind…

    I gave snow amounts a couple of days ago because I felt there was a need to get out the word, not to fuel hype. If I talk snow, I give numbers. It’s just the way I roll. I don’t really like to dance around the subject, throw scenarios and ‘what ifs’ around. We’re all busy, so I just get to the point.

    We’re all big boys and girls here. Things change. Storms have a mind of their own and sometimes don’t play by the rules. This was one of them. Track, timing and precipitation amounts were right on. The storm’s strength, on the other hand…”

  37. Map for Thursday, April 18th, 2013 (55 days from now)

    Boston : 93F, Worcester : 88F, Nashua : 94F, Burlington, VT : 91F, Marshfield : 80F and poor Chatham and Nantucket : 51F with fog.

    If we can project with snow, we need equal time for the warm weather folks. 🙂

    1. They are due. Last big bust was when I was still on BZ. The criticism was what made me leave. I seem to remember criticism of the mets is what made most leave. Maybe I’m wrong

    2. This isn’t even close to the biggest bust.

      Not to mention here they go again verifying something that hasn’t occurred yet.

      Wow this science has changed for the worse since I graduated… It needs to be fixed. 😛

    3. Boston still in for a good shot at 4 inches sometime tomorrow, I think around night time. I think it would be a bust for Boston anyhow if they got no snow.

    1. Very good !

      Interesting on the idea of bust for something that hasnt happened yet.

      Seems to me a bust is when one forecasts something right up to the event that then never happens. They are actually giving a decent forecast tonight, adjusting to something that will happen in the future. So, to me, they have created their own bust, the event has not.

  42. Oh jeez another Norlun snowfall… That worked out real well last time it was forecasted
    (I’m just being an ass sorry)

  43. I saw your yesterday that they were spending all kinds of money to remove snow and remove snow banks along with me coming home I saw big trucks taking snow from sides of roads to get ready for the big weekend snowstorm, just wondering how much tax payer money they wasted on removing snow to get ready,,, hmmmm hype or bad forecast or bad models equals we lose even more money and NOW we may only get an inch haha, crazy stuff good night all haga

    2. In other words they were spending all kinds of money to remove snow when they didn’t have too, this cost millions of dollars!!! For nothing!!

      1. And who told them to remove the snow and spend the money?

        Only a few irresponsible outlets put out numbers that were too high, too soon, and even then they were not much higher than what will be falling. Somehow the met’s will get blamed (as usual) when it is the failure of the general public to understand the information presented to them. They should also be aware enough now know when numbers are out too early. They all turn into high and mighty know it alls when it comes to tossing insults at those of us who have worked our asses off for our degrees in a job where nobody thinks twice to thank you for your 8 out of 10 correct forecasts but take great joy in demeaning you for your 2 out of 10 bad ones. 🙂

        I love people. 😀

        1. I agree wholeheartedly. Its like any thankless profession that gets bashed unfairly by the public. I think our local mets are fantastic. They are human. They make mistakes, we ALL do. Life goes on.

          1. Furthermore, I don’t necessarily think anyone made a mistake per se. The forecast changed as the model outputs did.

            1. You’re right. Too many people bite on early “potential” numbers. And then of those a fair percentage only remember the high-end numbers. And then there is that whole weatherman joke thing about never being right… etc. That joke got old decades ago. 🙂

              1. I really think these folks put forth their best effort. They aren’t psychics. People should really understand that and be a little kinder instead of going straight to insults and bitter criticisms. ’nuff said!

                1. It’s nice to know that some people actually understand what we are trying to do here… 🙂

  47. weekend storm upsetting. with a general 4-8 inches north of the pike and west of i95. highest amounts over the higher terrain. 2-4 inches south of the pike and east of i95. 0-2 southeast mass/cape and islands.

    Next week so called long duration event.. looks like rain showers with some snow mixing in at nights. with verry little accumulations.

  48. Reposted from my Facebook page:

    A brief editorial:

    I can’t speak for all forecasters our there but a general statement provided here should cover all that is necessary.

    There is a reason I as a forecaster do not speak in deterministic terminology about a specific event too far in advance. Most forecasters follow this general rule, other than some having to give into the pressure of their bosses (a.k.a. news directors) because they work in a ratings-based business. That is an ongoing mistake that nobody in the media seems to be in a rush to address. Money speaks louder than truth apparently.

    Then, you have the general public. It’s becoming clear that many people out there are not able to understand the information being provided to them in media. Is this their own fault? In some cases, yes. I observe a whole lot of ignorance when reading commentary in various places with regard to not only weather, but other news subjects. People here what they want to hear, and make up all kinds of other details along the way. In other cases, the answer is no, and this blame falls to the providers of the information. Not all are guilty, but there is a significant amount, in my opinion, that are not getting the word out properly. Word choice, in both news and weather, is important. I believe we must attempt to educate as well as inform, and this should be ongoing on a regular basis, not because the general reader or listener is stupid, but because you cannot expect every word you say to be understood or interpreted as you intend. You have to make sure people are understanding what you are saying. Part of the solution is word choice. I always try to make the best choices I can when communicating, and knowing that I will sometimes fail in this effort, I always encourage questions and do my best to answer them. I have worked with or am friends with many others in the field of meteorology who do this very well. We all basically said the same thing with regard to this upcoming weekend storm threat. We used words like “potential”, and phrases like “this can change, please check back for updates”, etc. But sometimes I wonder how many people see only the first guess and take it as the final word? There is no final word until the event is over. That’s the nature of nature, if you’ll pardon the odd phrase.

    What we do, is our best to predict the future. It’s inexact. It’s imperfect. And it will never be done with complete accuracy. To be able to do it even remotely as well as we can do it now is an accomplishment that I think many do not comprehend. But an expansion on this topic will be held for now.

    How does this relate to the storm threat this weekend? I’ve already observed mud slinging toward meteorologists about getting this one wrong. That’s great and all, but let me ask a couple of questions that won’t be seen by the actual mud slingers but can be used as educational points by anybody reading this:

    1) As I write this early Saturday morning, has the event actually taken place yet?

    2) With the exception of a few irresponsible communicators, were you not told that this particular forecast was not locked in and that things could change?

    3) Do you realize that a difference of only a few tenths of an inch of melted precipitation is going to make a difference by a few inches in snowfall? 2 1/2 inches of snow instead of 5 sounds like a bigger difference than a quarter inch of rain versus 1/2 inch, doesn’t it?

    You may wonder if I am angry or bitter toward anybody in particular and the answer is no. It’s just that observing the reaction of the uneducated always raises these same points in my mind. But the solution is complex, and a good portion of it, I believe, falls to the provider of the information. As a forecaster and communicator, I need to continue to make sure people are understanding what I am saying. It can be tedious and repetitive, but it’s completely worth it.

    Thanks to anybody who actually made it through this entire post. 🙂

  49. Well said T.K. However what I think we are seeing with weather along with other types of news events is a “media created reality” that often has little or nothing to do with the objective reality of the actual event as it unfolds. We as a culture find ourselves now in the age of Twitter, Facebook, texting and all sorts of other social media – instant communication that facilitates bad information going viral instantly without anyone ever seeming to check let alone care about the accuracy of what they are reading. I had a twenty eight year old who works in my store try and tell me that some totally ridiculous statement was “true” because “it says so right here on my phone” (Facebook). Really? Multiply that by millions. I have thought for a while that in our media dominated soceity the “weather” is the forecast. For a long time now people’s behavior seems to be based not on what they can determine by looking out the window but rather “what it says on their phone.” As far as this weekend / Sunday goes the damage has already been done. Events will be cancelled, things closed, plans changed all over what it seems likely to amount to very little in the way of snow. Ask anybody who owns a restaurant what the “S” word in the forecast for the weekend does to business. Even if it doesn’t snow a single flake I lose 1/3 of a days sales over the apparent “terror” over what “might happen.” Is this anyone’s fault? I don’t think so. It just seems that as a culture we have crossed some kind of line. I think I just got a text………. 🙂

  50. We live in a world where sensationalism sells. It drives veiewership which drives ratings which in turn drives advertising revenue. The model is rather simple.

    What can be lost in this model is both “objective reporting” and “balanced reporting.” The media will talk publicly about the need for objectivity and balance but behind closed doors it’s quite different. I speak about this from experience having been in a part of the news biz.

    On a personal note, I lost my home in the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. If you listened to the news, one would have believed that the Valley (north of LA) was nothing but rubble. For those who lost a home, business or family member (54 people died) it was tragic. The truth though is that 99.9999……% of homes, businesses and people survived. But if your sole source of quake news was TV every night, you would have never known it.

    2. Since at the time my sole source was TV, I never did know it.

      But I am sorry to know you were one of those that lost a home. Much more importantly, I can speak for all of us in saying we’re very happy you were not one of the very unfortunate who did not survive. Happy to have you here. 🙂

  51. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which state is currently experiencing an exceptionally dry historic drought?

    A. Nebraska
    B. Iowa
    C. Colorado
    D. Texas

  52. I am going with A Nebraska.
    I don’t think there should be mud slinging at meteorologists when a storm doesn’t go as planned. As I often say these low pressure systems have minds of their own. Weather is not an exact science. As far as snowfall amounts getting posted early they should be taken with huge grains of salt and people should realize this is an initial estimate that could very well change as we get closer to the event.

  53. Texas here.

    Think 1-3 from 495 East and 3-5 west into the hills.

    Overall upcoming pattern looks at the very least cloudy, cool and crappy. Early spring setting up where the atmosphere doesn’t want to clear? I’ll take it now rather than in May.

    1. Me too Retrac. I am wishing for a spring like 2010 that occurred after the floods. It was mild in April and May and sunny :).

      1. Yup. I don’t want to be sitting here on Memorial Day with a sweatshirt on wondering when the weather is going to break.

  55. I feel for those who scheduled their spring break in the Florida/Gulf of Mexico area, if their break is next week or the first full week of March.

    Conversely, anyone that chose the West Coast is in business !

    There’s going to be some unusual daytime chill in the deep south and Florida before this whole deep block next week eventually unravels.

    Could be isothermal too, where in Caribou, ME, its perhaps 33F and in Pensacola, FL, its 40F. Maybe a few days of Miami not getting to 60F ??

  57. Logan thru Feb. 22nd (data courtesy of Taunton climo page)

    Temp departure : -1.4 F Precip departure : +0.34 inches

    Total precip = 2.83 inches. Matching that up vs. daily snowfall, it appears that 2.17 inches of that has fallen as snow (32 inches) and .66 has fallen as rain.

    Thus, if 2.17 = 32, then so far, Logan’s monthly snow ratio has avg’d about 1 : 15

    1. I’d trade early, even mid month chill for some decent Easter weekend weather at month’s end. Been to a lot of Easter egg hunts with the winter coat still on.

  60. Harvey has always been the best in my book, a close 2nd is Barry Burbank, 3rd is Matt Noyes, 4th Jim Cantore,, 5th Pete Bouchard even though he can go out on limbs he is often right 🙂

  61. TK, you articulate the issues very well. I thank you for your honesty, but also for your defense of meteorology. I am not a meteorologist. Not even close. I know a thing or two about weather, but am not in the same league as many on this blog. Yet, we all have opinions, hunches, educated guesses, interpretations, wishful thinking, which we want to get off our chest. Your forum (blog) is ideally suited for weather nuts like us. What none of us should feel compelled to do is to mud-sling. Criticism is fine, especially when it is warranted. For example, over-hype is subject to legitimate criticism. Sensationalism is subject to criticism. Not admitting fault is subject to criticism. However, being wrong in and of itself should not be reason to insult, disparage, vilify the poor forecasters whose only tools are inconsistent models. If a forecaster appears to not be using his or her brain to analyze the situation, then yes, a gentle chiding is justified. But, in my experience, most forecasters are smart. Most use their mind as best they can. Meteorology, however, is a notoriously difficult field. It is much like economics – my area of research. Economists work with many different models, all of which have major flaws. The garbage in, garbage out principle applies. If the variables and parameters are not correctly specified, then no matter how elegant the model, regardless of its mathematical properties, it is going to be wrong. In weather, an analogous principle is at work. Now, the economist also has to deal with human behavior, which is fickle, often irrational, and mostly myopic. But, in my view, weather displays (shares) similar features. While weather cannot be myopic – it is not volitional – it is fickle and can often exhibit counter-intuitive manifestations.

  62. Nevermind the mets, when I got people asking and calling for a forecast, 1st I’m not a meteorologist I just love the weather always have always will, but get alot of people that call me in my take or see in and around town they will bust me about being wrong, I just laugh and say can’t get every thing right but inside I’m so angry, people only remember what they want, have a good morning everyone, looking forward to meeting some of you for the 1st time 🙂

  63. Some morning thoughts.

    Nice write up TK. I sure hope none of us fall into that category. At least we
    see what is happening and can understand why the forecast has to be changed. 😀

    Re: tonight’s event (non-event)

    Seems that some models (NAM, GFS, UKMET) want to bring what’s left of this
    ever weakening system farther North, while other models (Euro, Canadian, FIM, Nogaps) keep it suppressed way to the South. Aside from that issue, is the warmth aloft as most models want to bring the 850mb 0C line North of the Boston area.
    Then there is the aftermath, ie Norlun trough to keep the precip going, albeit
    not too heavy.

    Waiting for the NAM to complete, but looks like there will be some snow/mix/rain
    tonight going over to snow around 4 AMish or so and continuing all day Sunday.

    Accumulations range from 0 (GFS) to about 4 inches (06NAM).
    Or u pick em. 😀 😀

    In short, it may look Wintry tomorrow, but in the end, not much of anything will
    happen.

  64. 12Z NAM looks to set up a big time Norlun Trough for Extreme NE Ma, all of SE NH
    and SW Maine. Maps to follow shortly. 😀

    Also, the 12Z run wants to keep 850mb 0C line North of Boston for a good portion of
    event. 😀

  65. No cold high to the north and the fact we are having a weak storm system were against us for having a big time accumulating snow. If the coastal low could have been stronger it would be a whole new ball game.
    Looks unsettled next week so I don’t think I am getting the car washed.

  66. Matt Noyes snow map:

    http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e2017c370b3c69970b-500wi

    And write up:

    Saturday: Very little precipitation. Very little wind. Snow and rain showers, but above-freezing temperatures and daytime heating (even through clouds) ensure it melts on roads, all the way to the Canadian border. No substantial impact, daytime or evening into the overnight – though this is not really a new development…Saturday was anticipated to be OK during daylight hours.

    Wind and Waves: Failure of the storm center south of New England to strengthen takes wind…and therefore waves…pretty much out of the forecast. Gusts will not exceed 30 mph along the coast. Waves, as a result, will be 4-5 feet Sunday 10 AM high tide – negligible, and coastal concerns are no more.

    Saturday Night/Sunday Snow: This is about the only aspect of the storm that will hold – it will be snowing when you wake up Sunday, with some interior slick spots, and will continue periodically through the day, but while accumulations on the order of 2-4″ are still expected in the immediate Boston area, the 6″-8″ amounts originally anticipated for Worcester County and the northern Merrimack Valley have actually shifted northeast – a lot. Interior SE NH into Southern ME and Portland. In the Boston area, this means that while it snows most of the day Sunday, it never really comes on heavily.

    Possibility for change: Unfortunately for our earlier forecast, but fortunately for most everyone’s weekend, there is finally very good agreement…on the above-mentioned solution. As such, the probability for significant change to the forecast is fairly low.

    1. More from
      Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      Good morning…if you missed my late night/early morning post, there has been a dramatic change in the structure of the weather system this weekend – essentially keeping southern moisture and northern energy distinct and separate. This had huge implications on the forecast, mostly by reducing expected snowfall for most areas. Today was a no-impact day anyway, but as of the overnight it became clear that for most, even Sunday is going to see precipitation rates lgivjt enough – and rain for many in Eastern and Southern New England – that while a few inches of snow will accumulate Sunday and Sunday night, the area for potential substantial accumulation shifts to Southern Maine. Interestingly, snow totals in that area will hinge upon a narrow but intense disturbance called a Norlun Trough, which very well may drop as much snow as originally forecast to this area, but in a much more localized fashion than originally predicted. For more detail on impact and lack thereof, see the link http://mnoy.es/VWEM7s

    1. More from Matt Noyes:

      Options
      Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      Good morning…if you missed my late night/early morning post, there has been a dramatic change in the structure of the weather system this weekend – essentially keeping southern moisture and northern energy distinct and separate. This had huge implications on the forecast, mostly by reducing expected snowfall for most areas. Today was a no-impact day anyway, but as of the overnight it became clear that for most, even Sunday is going to see precipitation rates lgivjt enough – and rain for many in Eastern and Southern New England – that while a few inches of snow will accumulate Sunday and Sunday night, the area for potential substantial accumulation shifts to Southern Maine. Interestingly, snow totals in that area will hinge upon a narrow but intense disturbance called a Norlun Trough, which very well may drop as much snow as originally forecast to this area, but in a much more localized fashion than originally predicted. For more detail on impact and lack thereof, see the link http://mnoy.es/VWEM7s

  69. To all: Thank you for your support and feed back!!

    O.S. … Nobody here falls into that category. I wasn’t even thinking of a particular person when I wrote that. It was just thoughts about the entire subject, and having read a few very nasty things online when I got home late last night it just boiled the pot over. If I didn’t write that at 3AM/4AM, I never would have gone to sleep. 🙂

    I expect people to be disappointed if a met (myself or anybody) does a poor job, especially on a frequent basis. Of course we can’t get them all right, but it’s a common goal that we all strive to be as accurate as possible. We want to get them all right, just like a sports team wants to win every time they play. I know and they know it’s just not possible. So hopefully the record is good enough to be considered success. And when I achieve success in meteorology, it’s not so much for personal satisfaction, but for being happy that I got the right message out for people to use as they need. Of course there is a built-in personal satisfaction when I get something right. Who wouldn’t feel that? 🙂 And when I (we) get it wrong, we feel bad about it.

    1. Thanks TK. I hope you, personally , were not the subject of any mudslinging.
      If so, MOST unfair. You of all people, tell it like it is and do not EVER succumb to Hype and we really appreciate that. 😀

      4. Not this time, O.S. – I have been in the past however, many times.

        I have a great group of readers and friends that understand what is being said, and ask me if they do not understand something. That’s all any one of us can ask for. I also try to explain as much as I can. 🙂

    3. TK – Thank you for your comments here and previously. No one here would be surprised to know that it bothers me a lot when any of the mets are criticized. I was not as wise as you were, TK, and did not post my thoughts last night and as a result spent a good part of the night thinking about it. We all know here – for a fact – that the mets are “encouraged” by their stations to get the numbers out there. Above the general public, we should then understand why maps are posted early. If it is frustrating, then I think the blame should be placed where it belongs. Unfortunately, as we saw and continue to see on the BZ weather blog, the blame ultimately ends up on the mets shoulders. I can’t even go to BZ any more because it makes me feel very badly for every one of the mets who puts time and effort into creating his/her blog. But there are times we do the same here and that is what was bothering me last night perhaps more than anything. This is a public blog and has an exceptional reputation. If others are reading it here, I’m not sure what message that sends.

      I have started and stopped writing this three times and did consider saying nothing. However, I’m not good at keeping my thoughts to myself as I suspect you all know 🙂 As is the case with you TK, this is not directed at any one person but is simply a general observation. It’s similar to the posts the other day about the tone set when discussing predictions with each other. I hope it’s ok for me to express my thoughts. You all know I absolutely love this blog, everyone here, and the opportunity to be here and to learn. And TK I cannot begin to tell you how grateful for the time and effort you put into Woods Hill Weather and to all of those who not only post thoughts, predictions, links and take the time to educate me.

  70. Sorry about the duplicate post. Thought I hadn’t posted it.

    On another note, where is our Euro Bomb for next week??? 😀 😀 😀

  71. From the NWS this morning about later next week:

    AS WE LOOK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE…THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOW
    PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH NAO BECOMING EXTREMELY
    NEGATIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THAT A SLOW MOVING
    COASTAL STORM COULD BE SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST FOR A FEW
    DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK. WHETHER THIS DEVELOPS INTO A SIGNIFICANT STORM
    OR ENDS UP BEING JUST A NUISANCE EVENT WILL REMAIN UNKNOWN FOR AT
    LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

  73. OS: By next week are they referring to March 1st? I know that some models have backed off, in part because of relatively warm temperatures, but my hunch is this may turn out to be more than just a nuisance. Harvey hinted at that last night. I think some energy and marginal cold will penetrate the region by Thursday night, changing rain into snow showers and eventually all snow. Though this may not be a blockbuster event, it could be a long duration one. And, btw, enjoy the sun on Monday because we may not see it again for a long time. We may all be humming the Beatles song “Here comes the sun” by the 5th of March.

    1. Yes siree. Could very well be.

      Too bad we couldn’t break the snow record for February. That would have been great. Oh well, there is always next year. 😀

  74. I just read the comments above and want to throw my two cents in–I got swept up in the hype of the storm but I have something very important to do this weekend. So, I’ve changed my plans and am getting started a day early. No biggie. The good news is that I’m not going to wake up tomorrow morning and find that I can’t travel. In this case, forewarned was forearmed and that’s just fine.

    1. It’s easy to get swept up in it when it’s almost impossible to escape it. The media needs a new approach……………… 🙂

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