White Way Out, Wet For The Rest

10:05PM

7:20AM edit for time period and snow amount

A large storm system will crank its way into New England today, then sit, spin, and decay over the region on Thursday, before wandering away to the east as February turns to March. This time, mild ocean air will prevent snow for much of the forecast area, with only far northwestern Middlesex County through the Worcester Hills and up into the southwestern through south central NH seeing some accumulating snow (points west and north of here will have even more significant snow). Quite a bit of rain may be falling for the morning commute in the Boston and Providence areas on Wednesday, so keep this in mind if you will be out there. Rain will taper and become more showery (snow far to the northwest will become spotty mix/rain showers) by later Wednesday through Thursday, but later Thursday night, colder air will work back in and things will switch back over to snow showers, which will last through early Friday. Enough snow may fall to bring minor accumulation early Friday to southeastern NH through northeastern MA (not looking like a big deal at this time). And I know some of you won’t believe me, but it looks like we may have a storm-free weekend (additional storminess remaining far offshore). The down side is that it will likely be on the chilly side to start the month of March.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain, moderate to heavyΒ  in some areas, except mix/snow mainly outside of 495 and mainly north of the Mass Pike, tapering to areas of mostly rain showers except rain/mix showers far northwest ofΒ  Boston. Snow accumulation of a slushy coating up to a few inches over higher elevations of far northwestern Middlesex County and northern Worcester County MA into the higher elevations of south central NH. Highs middle 30s to near 40. Wind E to SE 10-30 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of rain showers, drizzle, and fog. Temperatures steady from the middle 30s to near 40. Wind SE to S 5-25 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers, transitioning to snow showers from north to south at night, most numerous southeastern NH to northeastern MA. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Early snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 31. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 41.

279 thoughts on “White Way Out, Wet For The Rest”

      1. Can’t wait!

        Just changed the batteries in my rain gauge. Bring the rain on. Hoping for not too much though, don’t want to have to start worrying about basement issues!

    1. Don’t forget to spring the clocks forward in 10 days, bc of the spring forward the sunrise will be 7:05am and sunset will be 6:47pm

  1. 1 to 3 inches of rain!!! for the coastal plain. less than 1 inch of snow. . πŸ™ im worried about flooding

    1. Don’t think flooding will be that bad. Rivers are not overloaded. Many drains are clear because the snow from the blizzard melted back nicely. Ground never completely froze up so some of the rain will sink in even underneath the snow cover. Some flooding, yes, but mostly minor.

  2. TK, what are your thoughts regarding the March 6-7 potential? NWS is starting to focus on it and if I am not mistaken, the Euro does have it already.

    1. Showing up on a couple of models. Whatever it is, it seems to track south and east of BM as of now — subject to hundreds of changes over the next week.

    2. Longshot is right, and my early thoughts on this say it may end up too far south. Will watch it of course. πŸ™‚

  3. I think most of Eastern Mass and RI have bare grounds to end meteorgical winter, only in New England can u get 30+ inches of snow for the month and have bare ground to finish the month πŸ˜‰

      1. what happens when your a mile up. one day cold and snowy the next having warm air aloft making it warmer than the valleys. What my mom said when she was there working before she had us πŸ˜€

  4. I made an edit to the above entry to take out OVERNIGHT and to tweak a few things on today’s forecast and in the discussion. Nothing major other than taking out the top end snow #’s. Warm air is winning as expected, even preventing some of the higher #’s in the highest hills.

    Have a great day all!

        1. Actually OS – I never say “I told you so” which made it difficult for me to do. The only reason I did was because every single time – with one exception that I can remember so I’ll go so far as to say it could have been two – when Pete’s forecast is questioned on here (and that’s a lot) he’s been right. I may not have the weather knowledge but I do have a tendency to enjoy keeping track of forecasts and who said what.

          It’s just that he is reading the blog and I think he deserves the respect he is due.

            1. Respectfully, people are entitled to his/her own opinion. Pete nailed it this time and will give credit when credit is due. We aren’t saying he is a terrible forecaster. Rather, it’s his way he goes about his informing of the public too soon at times. I’m surprised Pete would be concerned with reading blogs and what opinions people form. He doesn’t have to read the blog if he so chooses. Just my opinion πŸ˜€

              1. arod – I hear what you are saying but I thought we’d gotten to the point where it is clear that the mets are not the ones in control of WHEN the forecast is put out. Also, I never said he was concerned with anything people are saying and don’t know where you got to that conclusion. I believe BB reads this blog too. No one said either has to read it.

                I actually thought we were going to move to getting the word out to the public with regard to mets. Not so sure this is the way to do that but then that’s my opinion. I have never made a secret of the fact it bothers me to have any met criticized – here or anywhere else – it was why I left BZ weather blog. It’s no different IMHO than anyone criticizing publicly what any of us do. As I said before, I am far more impressed with a person who goes to the source if he/she has questions.

            1. I had posted the other day OS that I sent him the link – just before everyone started criticizing him. He said responded that the station discourages them from posting on private blogs but he’d try to comment occasionally. I can only assume that is the same reason BB doesn’t comment but does read. I’d say Pete would be impressed with the knowledge here.

              1. Thanks Vicki.

                If I ever disagree, I’ll make every attempt to do so in a nice way.

                Since this is a private blog, I for one, have been pretty critical at times. I’ll be far more careful in the future.

                Good lesson learned.

                Thanks again.

                πŸ˜€

                1. Thanks OS and Arod – it is a private blog but I think we have many, many more readers than we realize and I’m just beginning to understand that. I tend to forget it isn’t just us chicks too.

  5. Wxrisk.com
    β€Ž*** ALERT *** 0Z WED MORNING EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS MASSIVE WINTER STORM OVER SE VA … BRINGING 12-24″ OF SNOW to western 50% of VA … yes SW Va too.. eastern Half of WVA western and central MD…ALL of PA ( yes incl Philly) and into all of NJ up into NYC

  6. Does anyone have access to the Euro 200 and/or 300mb charts?

    Something happens with the storm for next week. I’ll use instant maps to illustrate:

    Surface at 192 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022700&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

    500mb at 192 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022700&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=192

    One looks at that and thinks: “We’re going to get pasted!”

    But look at 216 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022700&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    2 mb weaker and it moved ESE

    500 mb chart:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022700&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=216

    At 240 Hours it is FAR FAR OTS!

    Something in the atmosphere is projected to kick this thing out. What is it?

    Winds at 200/300mb? Extreme blocking down stream??

    Any thoughts? Comments? TK? JMA?

    Many thanks

    1. Just looks at the 300mb King chart.

      The strongest jet is pretty far south 120-130 knots down in Florida. The trough sharpens up for Mid-Atlantic then flatens out right in the end. Not sure if it’s feeling the influence of a building High to the north or not. I’ll need to spend some more time with it but that’s my first blush impression.

      1. Thanks Retrac. That was my initial thoought, but I don’t have
        access to the 200 and/or 300 mb charts.

        Interesting material to be sure. Really appreciate you taking
        a look. πŸ˜€

    1. Yes, and if that gets up the coast, well it could be an absolute monster.

      I am so curious to see what’s kicking it out. (Yes, of course I know and can and probably will change some, but something in the charts is kicking it out????)

      Many thanks Hadi.

      πŸ˜€

      If you post and I don’t respond it is because I have a meeting coming up
      shortly. Will respond later. Thanks again.

    2. Yeah it did. solid 12-18″.

      Hope this stays on the charts. I’m not ready for boring weather yet. In three more weeks, yes, but not now.

  7. It’s likely the winds at 200 and 300 that are shunting next week’s storm OTS. We need those winds at 30,000 feet to buckle toward the north and northeast to crush us. The question remains as to why the jet hits a brick wall and shunts this beast harmlessly out into the Atlantic. It’s either a VERY strong H or a block. What does that NAO look like next week. If grossly positive, that could be an issue as well.

    1. NAO for next week (according to the Euro):

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

      Raw numbers:

      2013022700z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
      NAO value for forecast hour 000: -208.15033
      NAO value for forecast hour 024: -290.173828
      NAO value for forecast hour 048: -362.090729
      NAO value for forecast hour 072: -418.320251
      NAO value for forecast hour 096: -386.633484
      NAO value for forecast hour 120: -321.449768
      NAO value for forecast hour 144: -323.605865
      NAO value for forecast hour 168: -370.90802
      NAO value for forecast hour 192: -388.889435
      NAO value for forecast hour 216: -353.584137
      NAO value for forecast hour 240: -245.749969
      NAO value for Day 1-5: -355.733582
      NAO value for Day 6-10: -336.547485

      1. Well it’s not that NAO that’s a problem. What do surface temps look like for next week? It it gets climatologically cold, then one could deduce that it’s a mighty strong cold blocking H that is the culprit. Sorry. I’m unprepared this morning because I’m at work and don’t have access to the maps.

        1. Okay surface temps remain seasonable. I was able to find that, LOL. Could still be a seasonable blocking H. Otherwise, perhaps the northern jet remains stronger than the southern jet and boots the surface low out. However, they do appear to merge over the mid atlantic which leads me to believe that there is upstream blocking.

          1. Yes, of course, but we HAVE to get it here first.

            Even TK is leaning towards an OTS solution.

            BUT, that is 8 or 9 days out. An eternity for the models. πŸ˜€

            1. An eternity for sure.

              I can’t imagine what the GFS is going to do to us this week with this thing. I’ve got a bottle of Malox ready to go for that craziness.

      2. Well, that might be the answer. Too much blocking.

        Plenty of time to wishcast this our way.

        The High to the north is 1036mb and needs to come east.

        1. “Wishcast”

          I like that. We should keep a glossary of all our “coined” words and phrases. πŸ˜€ Vicki?

    1. Good for you John…your son will LOVE it. I keep telling my boys I will bring them when they are a little older. They are 5 and 7 now so I think next year we will plan a trip.

      1. As much as I am a weather nut, I’m also a huge Disney freak. My wife and I take our children every year. It’s my favorite place to visit. Love the fantasy and especially the magic πŸ˜€

        1. I do not like the Disney brainwashing corporate mentality. I would rather take my kids hiking or swimming over vacation than to have them corrupted by those thieves. Oh well, to each is own.

          1. I totally hear what you are saying Coastal. I almost feel like it is parental pressure to bring your kids to Disney. I was never brought there as a child and certainly survived. My boys are just as content at a beach, playground, or pool but I feel I HAVE to do it. They are already brainwashing me and I haven’t even been there yet.

        1. We’ve stayed at the All Star Resorts, the Contemporary, the Caribbean Beach Resort and the Polynesian among others. The Poly is our favorite because it is a hawaiin resort right off the monorail. Much easier to transport young children on and off a monorail then on and off a jam packed bus. Not to mention the monorail really makes you feel like you’re in Disney with all the views and such. Monorail resorts are Deluxe resorts so it’s going to cost you. John, make sure you visit http://www.mousesavers.com. You can save a ton! There are general public codes that you are likely not aware of that can save you 25-40 percent off your room rate along with many other savings. Even if a code isn’t out during the time you wish to visit, you can use AAA and save 15% off your room rate. Also, the cheapest way to purchase disney tickets is through AAA or by visiting undercovertourist.com where taxes are included in the total price.

          1. Thanks. Wish I mentioned earlier. We just booked and staying at the beach club resort. I was sold on the poly but all the reviews were horrible saying it was a run down dump. Going the end of April for one week.

            1. You can still cancel your reservation. You’re probably paying full rack prices. What dates are you going to Disney and I will look it up for you? If you find a savings code or if you wish to book with AAA all you have to do is call Disney again and edit the reservation by applying the AAA or a code rate to your reservation. In turn they will reduce the price accordingly. Disney knows these codes but they don’t inform the public of them so you will have to tell them the code. They will know what you’re talking about.

              1. I have an agent who I usually use. For the hell of it I contacted diney a month ago to compare prices and was almost identical. So I just used my agent again. I feel for seven nights I’m getting a good deal. Standard meal plan, unlimited hopper to all disney parks, direct flights and what looks like a really nice resort. Were doing Saturday to Saturday and leaving April 27th. That is two weeks earlier than we planned. With the original date of May 9th we found out yesterday my son would have missed mcas math exam. He could have made it up but he wants to do it with his class and friends. He is a good kid.

  8. Rain, rain and more rain. Windy too here in Lynn. Sitting in my car at Lynn Beach watching the crazy surf and big waves crashing over the sea wall. Nature’s fury!

    1. That’s about at straight N/S wind from Canada down as you’ll see. That’ll drive cold right down to interior Florida. If it were January, I’d be going long on orange juice futures with that map.

      1. It’s also enough to shunt storms out to sea. And, take note of that H over the great lakes and another one over the midwest. These may be responsible for steering our best out to sea next week.

  9. Intense band of showers (thundershowers ?) extending from southwest CT, southeastward over central/eastern Long Island and out a bit into the Atlantic Ocean. Thats really going to drench western New England.

    Wow, even Concord, NH is reporting light rain.

    1. Wishcast (adj., v,) (Wiscaster, n)- A deliberate or forced model observation that contradicts the model itself in order to fulfill the dreams of the observer. A Wishcaster (n), can be shown to exhibit momentary bouts of delusion accompanied by a rapid heartbeat, sweating and weather predictions that defy physics and the natural environment. The Wishcaster will crash into depression and sometimes lash out at innocent bloggers when their forecast busts.

  10. Temp is 42 degrees and moderate rain, we’ve gotten 1.21 so far and some of the ponds and lakes i go by often that were low before winter are close to average, combination of snow melt and heavy rains have contributed to this, weather kinda feels like a raw early spring day, bring your umbrella!!

  11. Fwiw, Henry Margusity is already using the term “Big Daddy” and has a potential snow map for March 4-7 of next week. He feels just with the very -NAO alone should do the trick. He is also very encouraged that the Euro has this storm as well.

    There are two REG FLAGS that are glaring at least for me:

    1. Henry is forecasting it, LOL. πŸ˜€

    2. Henry’s map does show a VERY sharp cutoff to the snow along the NH/VT border so it would probably not take much for OTS.

  12. Technically, according to the National Drought Monitor, Massachusetts is no longer in a drought. Deficit yes, drought no. I think the deficit will be history soon, as I’m bullish on there being a lot of precipitation in the coming month or so. Most of it will be cold rain, I’m afraid. But, I do think one more major winter storm is in the offing as well (> foot of snow in Boston).

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

      1. Thanks, Philip. I’ve heard and read conflicting numbers on the current deficit. Your number is on the high-end of recent calculations, I think. Not saying it’s inaccurate, just a high-end estimate. My best unscientific guess from looking at water levels of the Charles is that Boston is still definitely in a deficit, but coming out of it gradually. My concern is in the middle of the country. As you can tell from the graph there is some serious drought going on, and that situation could worsen as we head towards summer.

  13. Just curious…did Chicago finally get its big snow yet? HM always says that there is the “Chicago Wall” that blocks snow from entering the city limits. πŸ˜‰

    1. No, not really. Surprisingly low numbers from the windy city over the past few years. Chicago definitely has underperformed in terms of snow in recent years. Minneapolis has underperformed as well this year, as has Milwaukee.

      1. Very surprised at Minneapolis and Milwaukee…I always assumed snow is guaranteed at those locals every winter like HHH in July in Atlanta, for instance.

        1. They’ve had snow and more cold than last year, but are well below their average in terms of snow and above average in terms of temperature. My daughter lives in St. Paul (goes to college there). I think their biggest storm was an 8 inch snowstorm in December. They’ve had about five 2-5 inch events since, but really nothing more than that. Usually (Alberta) clipper storms will be fairly big out there and they tend to dry up and lose potency as they traverse the continent. This season, and perhaps TK could let us know if I’m accurate, there have been fewer clippers.

  14. NWS this morning mentions a Rex Block about to set up soon throughout the CONUS. Assuming this block determines what happens to the potential ocean storm next week, what could be the result?

    1. Rex blocks typically occur along the west coast but can also occur along the east coast. Spring time is when it is climatologically favored. Typle there is an adjacent H with the surface low to the south. If this Rex block is destined to set up along the east coast, this certainly could be what causes Mr. Beast to go out to sea. Typically, however, Rex blocks during the spring is responsible for causing slow moving, drawn out, rainy periods.

  15. Strange how that bomb doesn’t want to make it up here. It’s a huge digging trough and I can’t figure out what would block it from steering up the coast. Watch for 1-2 models to place this beast further north over the next few days. Wouldn’t be surprised to get tagged by this one.

  16. It will make it up here IMHO, the high at 1032 is not located in a position to go OTS. The trough is digging deep and it should ride up the coast.

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  18. I have added both definitions to our glossary πŸ™‚

    Let me know when more should be added πŸ™‚ Will we be published πŸ˜†

  19. GFS (n)(adj.) – An American weather forecasting model known for its schizophrenia; the word GFS can be interpreted in slang as an altered state of reality; as a pejorative term, it is used to describe someone who is behaving irrationally.

    1. I like but didn’t the GFS nail the last event with many places seeing primary rain except for the tail end? πŸ˜‰

  20. First time checking it in.
    RAINORAMA today UGH!!!
    Mid week next week a watcher with low pressure on the east coast. As I said yesterday if this tracks near or at the benchmark look out. I would love to see one last big dump of snow before we close the books on winter.

  21. Rain mixing with snow & sleet in Woburn.

    Vicki… Feeling better! Thank you. πŸ™‚

    I am going out for an errand. Will catch up in a while. πŸ™‚

    1. Very glad to hear it – don’t forget to wear your galoshes and slicker – oh wait, where did that come from – must be the mom in me or too much Leave it to Beaver!!

      Just kidding – I am more than happy to hear you are feeling better. Hope no one else in your family gets it.

  22. Just checked again. Intensity is bringing down enough cold air to make this 50/50 sleet/rain with a few wet flakes mixed in.

    1. I was out with my daughter earlier in Marlboro and the rain was so wet and the drops were so big they almost felt as if they wanted to be solid – and some appeared to be sliding in small little pellets across the hood of the car.

  23. Hi Lisa
    I had to visit a client in Marblehead at 1pm. Rode along Lynn Shore Drive. Amazingly angry ocean (grew up in Swampscott so I have seen lots of breaking waves over the walls but this looked particularly energized).

    And Vicki….don’t forget my “white rain” definition of weekend attempt the atmosphere had of snowing. Could say “falls white but no need for a shovel”.

    Can’t wait to meet you all tomorrow night.

    1. I absolutely love to watch an angry ocean

      I did not have the definition and thanks for reminding me – is that the wording you want to use?

    2. The ocean was AWESOME. I drove to Nahant and then along Lynn Shore Drive into Swampscott and then on to Marblehead Light.

      1. OS, the Euro Ensembles track doesn’t look a whole lot different than the Operational. And I’ve noticed the ensemble mean in the long range is pretty much always weaker than the operational run, so not really too much of a surprise there.

        1. Oh, I Agree totally. Just wanted to throw it out there.

          We just need to get that bugger to turn up the coast for one last shot for the Winter. πŸ˜€

          Those Jet Stream Winds just will not allow it (at this point, hopefully they will change) and a bring that whole set up due East, including that remarkable looking 500mb system. The whole configuration slides East
          out to sea. πŸ˜€

          1. Look way up in the northern atlantic on that EURO run and you will another monster storm. That may not be helping either.

  24. Check out this really cool graphic of the 12z Euro’s depiction of the storm next Thursday 3/7 at hour 192. What a bomb and look at the huge wind field and sphere of influence of the storm from South Carolina all the way north to New England.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/644728_487819401277154_2013631873_n.jpg

    It’s still all fantasy at 8 days out but impressive nonetheless if this actually materializes. Note that despite the storm track due east from the Outer Banks, the precip. field is massive with this storm. 1.25″+ QPF all the way north to NYC and even 1″ into CT and RI.

  25. Snow map from 12z euro. 12-18″ along mid atlantic coast, 12″ up to NYC and even 6-12″ in parts of CT and RI. Keep in mind the snow shown in Upstate NY and northern New England is from other storms through next Thursday, not this one. This is a running total from now through next Friday.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BEIqzK_CIAAJ0gT.jpg:large

    This map is purely for entertainment purposes only. Obviously it will change many times between now and then, if the storm even materializes πŸ™‚

    1. Like I mentioned the other day, this almost has the look of that ’93 blizzard. Lot’s of gazing to do still!

      1. When you mentioned – or the models showed – SC – I had that funny gut feeling. That is literally based on absolutely nothing except the hair standing up on the back of my neck, but it’s odd that the 93 storm is exactly what came to my mind.

      1. Pete gave no specifics whatsoever…just used the term MEGASTORM for the end of next week. I hope I didn’t misunderstand him.

  26. Vicki,

    You should add JJ’s “Rainorama”. Perhaps he’ll put together a definition for you.

    I didn’t coin them, But I heard them somewhere. Perhaps I could get you definitions of:

    “Snowpocalypse”
    “Snowmageddon”

    πŸ˜€

    1. ohhhh. I forgot about “Rainorama” perfect.

      I’m going to do one for the NAM and Euro as well. we ought to have something really great at some point.

      1. I added all three giving JJ credit for rainorama but not sure who to credit with other two

        and I left all definitions blank

    1. oh I love snizzle – I’m too literal to be clever though – I think it’s a light mix of snow/rain – Lisa do you have anything clever – anyone??

  27. Ok, one more before heading to class. (will work on Euro tomorrow)

    NAM (v) – derived from the latin, namus maximus meaning to overdo; to wallow in hyperbole; slang for injecting performance enhancing drugs.

  28. Megastorm? So it begins again…more hype…wouldn’t be surprised if they throw a snow map up tonight.

  29. Hey,

    I found another snow reference. Again, I sure didn’t coin this phrase, and I never
    heard of it before:

    “snOMG”

    πŸ˜€

  30. NWS also has their eyes on the potential Mid-Atlantic coastal storm for the end of next week…the one caveat is the Northern Quebec Block that may push it OTS but the Euro does have the storm for us.

  31. WeatherWiz,

    If any met throws up a snow map at anytime through the coming weekend, I will X them off my list forever. Megastorm? I realize they get paid to forecast and report but I would say that’s a big stretch.

    1. The hyperbole is too much. Overhype gets me agitated. This said, it’s fun to look ahead and think of the possibilities. One of the possibilities is a major storm, for which March is known. Haven’t had one in a while, but who knows maybe we’ll get one this month.

      By the way, the White Mountains are beginning to really stack up snow. Seems like every day in recent weeks has seen accumulating snow. I’m thinking I might take a little break in mid March (like I did last year) to do some cross-country up in the Whites. It’s always so impressive (even last year!) to see how much snow there is in those mountains: yards in places.

    2. Longshot it isn’t the met It is the station and maybe if we all write to the management maybe that’ll make a difference. You’d think management would be smart enough to get it wouldn’t you. They are losing viewers and their desire to be the first to get the numbers out there – which I know is a fact – is hurting the reps of their mets.

  32. NWS Upton, NY on storm next week…

    MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER IS ON THE WED AND BEYOND PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF
    HAS ECHOED THE DEEP LOW SIGNAL OF THE 00Z ECMWF. CWA WOULD BE ON THE
    NRN SIDE OF THIS LOW AS THE STORM MAKES THE HOOK OFF THE CAROLINA
    COAST BEFORE OCCLUDING AND DRIFTING EWD OUT TO SEA. PRIME AREAS FOR
    SNOW IN THE CWA WOULD BE THOSE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
    ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON E FLOW.
    A HVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE…MODERATE TO STRONG AND
    PERSISTENT ELY FLOW WOULD PRODUCE A WIND DRIVEN RAIN AND CSTL FLOOD
    RISK. TIMING OF THE STORM WOULD BE DURING A WANING CRESCENT MOON
    WHICH WOULD HELP TO MITIGATE SOMEWHAT THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF CSTL
    FLOODING.

  33. And NWS Taunton’s take on the storm…

    THERE IS GOOD CONTINUITY AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INTO THE EARLY
    PORTION OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL CONCEDE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND /NOT
    CONSIDERING THE CANADIAN WHICH HAS SHOWN A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN-TO-RUN
    VARIABILITY/. WITH DISCREPANCIES IN HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY ACROSS
    THE NORTHERN CONUS…POSSIBLY PHASING WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR ENERGY
    AND GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM BY THE
    LATE WEEK /MARCH 6TH-8TH/…WILL GIVE GREATER WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF
    OVER THE GFS IN A BLEND. STILL SOME CAVEATS TO THE FORECAST…
    TEDIOUS TO DISCERN…BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT WITHIN
    BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

    */WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND…

    A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTERACTING WITH HIGH
    PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA MAY RESULT
    IN AN OCCLUDING SETUP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A
    CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ERROR AND VARIABILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
    FORECAST…SO WILL ONLY SPECULATE BY GOING WITH THE ECMWF.

  34. This is just a gut and I have no meteorological evidence to support this but I have a feeling this storm clobbers us next week. I do not see strong enough blocking mechanisms to shunt this storm out to sea as depicted by the models. If anything, with the lack of cold H and easterly winds off the atlantic, another R/S line may be also be a threat. It’ s a wait and see game until the pacific energy gets into the continental US.

      1. Never rained in JP during that storm. Had about 1/2 inch of sleet at the end. I believe that it did rain at Logan. πŸ˜€

  35. I want to be the first to predict when the first snow map appears assuming the storm is still on the models…Sunday morning on Ch.7 either JR or Chris Lambert. πŸ™‚

    Anyone else?

    1. Sunday for sure. No amounts though but definitely painted maps with “snow” and “possibly” heavy and “lighter amounts”.

      That’s as far as I would agree to go in their shoes.

    2. I think I’ll post my snow map tomorrow based on a single run of the 06z GFS. It should verify! πŸ™‚

  36. Hadi..or anyone else

    Take a look at the Euro on Accu. It’s really interesting because a piece of energy dives down from the northern stream, blows up the low pressure and the upper level support looks like it just sling shots away underneath and leaves the bomb behind. It might not be anything but it seemed interesting and evident to me.

  37. I’m actually glad the models show this storm going OTS. That means there is more of a chance models will change in our favor. Remember, the pacific energy responsible for the bomb hasn’t even hit the US yet. Once it does, models will have a much better idea as to what is going to happen. Clearly, the models show a bomb along the east coast. There is no denying that. However, it’s too uncertain as to the track of the storm over a week out.

  38. Read this from PB. This is exacly what I just alluded to in my last post above about being glad the charts show a miss for next week:

    “But we’re not out of the woods. Big, burly storm will drift off the Mid Atlantic coast – prompting mass panic in the media no doubt – before it decides whether to come into New England. Still a lot to work out, but accumulations would be major, not minor. Timeframe is Thu-Fri – prone to change. What’s to fear? Well, the storm mostly misses us now. If you’ve read my blogs before, you know my rule: if the storm seems to miss us in the long range, it’s one to watch. If they show it hitting us 7 days out, chances are it won’t.”

    1. Awwww you are of the same mind. And I know I didn’t want another big storm but now I’m getting into this. I’m rather fickle I think.

  39. next weeks system will be similar to this weeks. morning mix higher elevations. rain else where. light accumulations higher terrain none else where. seeing a pattern set up that i am not liking. Hope it changes

    1. You think next week’s storm comes up the coast to give areas light accumulations in the higher terrain with rain elsewhere? What are you basing that on?

      1. This is a megabomb. If this were to strike, no one would receive LIGHT accumulations. Also, all guidance points toward taking this bomb out to sea. So what are you basing that on? Am I missing something?

  40. Lisa… About what you said above..I love driving to the ocean and watching the waves when it’s stormy or we have excessively high tides. One of my favorite spots to go is the sea wall at Lynn Beach by the Swampscott line. πŸ™‚

    1. Ok now you are all making me sad. We were supposed to be heading to the beach for a month on Saturday. Sighhhhh. Tom do you have room for anywhere from 2-10 and a dog. He’s a little dog

      1. LOL !! My kids would really love the dog ! πŸ™‚

        Sorry this March trip didnt work out. Have you thought of checking if there are other homes to rent on the south shore ? Certainly some nice water front homes around. I dont know if they are rentable and if the price is reasonable…….

        1. We have been but no luck. And Mac seems to have heard your kids would like the dog. He will deliver him tomorrow. Is that soon enough πŸ™‚

    2. We really have the best place to watch the ocean’s fury during storms. I have made so many videos of the storm surf, but they just don’t capture it adequately.

      1. Lisa – I tried so hard last year to capture a particularly angry sea with pictures and video and you are right – it just doesn’t translate to either.

  41. Why is every storm called a “bomb” on here (megabomb is a new one…thanks alisonarod!)? Seems like every storm gets called that…makes me wonder…

    1. I would tend to agree with you WW – we do overuse things sometimes. However, some of it is just goofing around and some of it is just that – a “bomb” which the 00z Euro has on it. A week from now might be a sunny day for all we know but for now, at least until ooz, in our world, it’s a bomb. πŸ™‚

      1. HAHA…I didn’t mean anything by it only from a learning perspective…trying to understand what is actually a bomb and what isn’t.

        1. Does seem like we have many strong storms off the coast this year though. Things have been very dynamic going back to Sandy.

          1. Going back to Irene. It’s the global warming thing……darn I can’t seem to stop myself today πŸ˜‰

        2. All good W.W.

          One thing about me if you haven’t noticed is that I don’t take things too seriously – This blog is a huge stress reliever for me.

  42. If I had to guess I would say next will will trend more and more north as they had all winter, but stay offshore. This will lead to many 500+ post blog days for sure. πŸ™‚

  43. Tomorrow is the last day of climatological winter.

    Temps : 58 of the 90 days were above normal.

    Snowfall : 42.8 inches, a bit above normal.

    We had maybe 3 weeks of chill and 70% of the snowfall came from one storm. Definitely more winter than last year, but I’d submit that it was still less of a New England winter than I think is possible.

    Tomorrow, max sun angle at Logan hits the 40 degree mark. Its the same as October 12th.

    1. And you know I will agree. I was thinking same thing when everyone was saying earlier that this was a real winter. Hmmmm now that I think of it I actually managed to not comment in that.

      1. To your global warming comment above, I must admit the topic crossed my mind today……

        While its late Feb and I know the sun is stronger and all, our region just had a rainstorm. I mean, Concord, NH …. Rain, from a storm that stayed to its south ??

        The cold air is completely missing from the eastern half of the US. Its only the clouds and storminess keeping the temps out of the 40s. Even the southern third of Canada is relatively mild.

        Add to that our one major blizzard and, well, like I said, I was pondering the topic myself today.

  44. She said she got it on the keypad on the IPad. If you hit the globe and then scroll to the right past the smiley faces.

              1. Well I lost that bet. How come some of them show up and some don’t. I used same set for the above posts and they didnt show

  45. I drove through that ’93 storm to spring break in Daytona. All I remember is how blinding the rain was in North Carolina.

    It was so cold that break my shorts never made it out of the suitcase. Same pair of jeans and sweatshirt all week – talk about ripe.

  46. Interesting that next month will be the 20th anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm…a repeat come next week perhaps? πŸ˜‰

    1. Was it right on march 13. I know we had to postpone my sons 9th bday party and his bday is march 13 but can’t remember date of storm

          1. I can’t say I’m a Deval fan but I do think he made the right call. No it was not as much snow as 1978 in just about every area, but it sure was a lot of snow, and cleanup went smoothly (minus some areas of the city obviously) because there was nobody on the road.

    2. LSC was having its annual storm conference and as it turned out, it was that weekend in eastern NY State, just north of Albany.

      The guest speaker that year was none other than alumnus Jim Cantore.

      It was all powdery snow out there and I seem to think we all needed to stay another night until the roads were clear enough for travel.

      At the time, I initially drove back to Lowell and remember seeing the foot plus of snow with a top layer of cement on it from the brief change to sleet, maybe even rain that then was solid ice in the cold air that followed the storm.

  47. Calling all Hadi’s. Give us one more reminder of the time and exact location please? πŸ™‚

        1. Enjoy everyone ! Sorry I cant make it, as I’m tutoring math tomorrow evening. Definitely hope to make a future gathering !!

  48. There have been some deep storms in the Atlantic this season yes. This is cyclic. Go look at some historical weather maps (they’re available online) and you’ll find winters that super-bombs are a frequent occurrence and others where it just does not happen. The late 1970s were notorious for some really deep low pressure areas.

    1. I suspect history will have the early 2010’s as very stormy both winter and summer. So far there was a ton of snow for 2010-11 winter then Irene and Sandy…probably more to come as soon as next week.

  49. Snowpocalypse (n) – Snowpocalypse is an aportmanteaus of the word “snow” with “Apocalypse”. Snowpocalypse seems to have first been published in the popular press in Canada during January 2009. Generally proclaimed to portend the arrival of a colossal snowstorm with prodigious accumulations and hellacious winds.

  50. Message from Tornado Chris…..
    I’ll be in the Globe tomorrow, times are tough here at my store. We are welcoming a ‘Cash Mob’ here on Saturday, feel free to post on Woods Hill, it would be great to meet some of y’all then…

  51. Thanks Matt. Some of us are chatty on FB, I try to read up in here but can rarely then return to follow up so I just read. I hope that the dinner tomorrow night is a smash, and would warmly welcome any and all weather fanatics to the store on Saturday.

  52. TK how do you think the commute Thursday night will be?

    The rain was so intense this morning I felt like I was going to die LOL…no big deal or anything….

    1. I do think the slickness will be limited to mainly side roads that aren’t treated. Main roads should be generally fine, just wet.

  53. Pete B tonight. Mentioned a storm brewing for middle/late next week but said he would save that for future forecasts. Sounded a lot more responsible.

    1. I wonder if he’s figured out a way to get around the stations desire to beat every other station to the numbers game. If so – kudos to him.

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