Block Up

121 Comments

11:35PM

Things won’t be moving too much in the atmosphere during the next several days. And with upper level low pressure stuck over New England we will be in an unsettled and cool pattern. Rain showers will transition to snow showers during the course of Thursday and Thursday night, and a period of steadier snow is possible in parts of southern NH and eastern MA early Friday as colder air returns. Though the weekend is not going to feature another winter storm, it will be on the chilly side with dominant cloud cover. Not much change is expected early next week, and we’ll be watching the development of a storm near the Mid Atlantic Coast toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few rain/snow showers. Lows 32-39 from northwest to southeast. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers becoming snow showers. A period of steadier snow possible with minor accumulation. Lows around 30. Wind variable to N up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lingering light snow eastern areas early. Highs round 40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 29. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 41.

121 thoughts on “Block Up”

  1. TK, thank you. Beginning Friday, seems you are forecasting many-a-day in a row with a low of 30 and high of 40. Not sure what normal temps are for this time of year — I’ll have to look that up. Good to see a storm free weekend.

  3. The good news about this overall weather pattern is that for now, it really eliminates any severe weather opportunities in the southern US.

  4. Sump pump ran this morning for the first time since March 2010. Hope next’s week storm stays OTS or we may start to see other problems too!

  7. Heading south to the Caribbean next Friday, so I will be reading with great interest any prognostications for storminess then…

    Ten days later, when we return, the closcks will have changed and it will be later in March… I’m expecting things to feel more spring like. Fingers crossed on that one!

    1. In Eastern Massachusetts the snow piles are dwindling, Daffodils are starting to emerge on the south shore, the sunsets are getting later and the chances of snow in the short / long range does not excite me. Looks like winter might be done with the exception of small snow events.

  9. I have the following terms so far

    Wishcast (adj., v)
    Wiscaster, n
    GFS (n)(adj.)
    White Rain
    Snizzle
    Snowpocalypse (n)
    snOMG
    Snowzilla
    Snowpocalypse
    Snowmageddon
    Rainorama

    I need definitions for last five and credit for white rain – thanks 🙂

    1. Vicki, I provided a definition for snowpocalypse last evening. Please see previous blog. OR I can re-post. Please let me know. Thanks

    1. Bastardi thinks that one makes sense O.S.

      “GFS drives a storm and I dot know that I have ever seen this.. from Montana to off SC next week. I like path of Canadian/UKMET”

    2. 06Z GFS takes it OTS as well, but it DOES have it, as have several previous
      GFS runs. So it looks like the storm threat is real, but so far “most” signs
      point to an OTS solution. However, it is a week off. Still very early.
      It’s certainly a watcher! 😀

      1. I’m just fine with it showing OTS for now. In fact, if it’s gonna get us, I don’t want to see it until 60 hrs. out.

  11. King (n)(adj.) – Often used to describe the superior European weather model (ECMWF); superior; regal; the act putting all other weather models in their inferior place (v); the arch-rival of the GFS

  13. There will be a large coastal storm off the Carolina coast next week. No doubt. But, until the pacific energy enters the US, models will not have a good handle on it’s track. As I alluded to last night which to my surprise was support by PB, storms a week out that look like they will hit us, typically are a miss. However, as in this case, storms that appear to be a miss by the models a week out, usually are the ones to watch. This one is a watcher and has me concerned.

    1. Total wait and see A-Rod – I agree.

      00z Euro buries most of Virginia and almost 1/2 of NC gets snow cover

      1. Speaking of snow cover…

        Not much left around the city. In JP, we’re down to “about”
        50% coverage and that percentage goes up as one heads farther into the City. 😀

          1. 50 percent snow cover in Westwood. Some areas of turf have over a half a foot while other areas are bare. Snow banks are shrinking. When the sun shines, one can really feel the warmth of the late February and early March sun. I’m looking forward to warm, sunny days and working out in my yard, but would love one more blockbuster snow storm prior to season’s end. Next week may be our last chance.

    1. The frightening part to me is the depth of misunderstanding expressed in the comments such as:
      “Forecasters can’t predict a storm a week out, yet alone snowfall the next 70 years…lol.”

  16. Interesting for sure, but really how can they predict that stuff. You can look at the last 70 years and I guess compare to what might happen with rising world temps.

  17. Good morning….hey Vicki, I confess. It was me who first used “white rain” when it snowed about a week ago and just created puddles.
    And looking forward to tonight.

  23. Charlie still 90% (conservatively – actually more like 100% where snow has not been touched) cover here about 4-6 inches would be my guess. Most roofs are now clear.

  24. Off subject of weather but is anyone watching as the Pope leaves the Vatican. Even though I am not Catholic, I find it very moving.

  25. It pains me to say that I will not be able to make it tonight. My husband needs to work late and I cannot find a sitter. I really hope we can plan another outing at a later date. Have a few for me!

  26. Interestingly enough, should the storm next week get us, it would be one month almost to the exact days of the February 8-9 blizzard. The potential dates would be March 6-8.

  31. LOL – the 12z GFS track would take the low across Georgia and out to sea due to the east, delivering some snow to Atlanta and Augusta on the back side of the storm. Just a bit south for us….

    12z UKMET at 144 hours has the storm in a similar position to the GFS.

    12z Canadian on the other hand has the parent storm tracking across the Great lakes and developing a secondary low over NYC and then tracking it right over us!!

    To say that we have a bit of model “spread” would be an understatement. 😉

    1. Hadi. I’m not a fan of the GFS but it nailed this last storm. It defied what the EC was showing which was a stronger, colder hit. Finally the EC saw what the GFS saw and the GFS was proven the king of this past event.

  34. I unfortunately will not be able to make it tonight either, I’m in the middle of a big work project that is keeping me for OT tonight. Maybe if some of you are still there post 9pm I might be able to make an appearance. If not, I hope you all have fun and look forward to the next of hopefully more meetings! 🙂

    1. Likewise. I would have loved to try and make it up there tonight from CT but my wife is working end of the month for the bank and is on call till 10PM. Need to take care of the kids. Please keep us all informed if there is another get together planned in the near future!

      1. Lot of bank related people on here it seems. Sorry you can’t make it. I’m hoping there are a lot of pictures for us to see tomorrow !

  35. 12z Euro looks like the GFS. Weak low passing off the South Carolina coast at 144 hours/Wed Mar 6. It’s WAY south.

  37. 12Z Euro at 168 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

    192 Hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

    When compared to the Canadian, this is pure LUNACY!!!
    I’ve NEVER seen a storm track like that!!

    These models are crapping their pants all over the place. ha ha ha

    So what does this mean? The Euro and GFS respond to blocking and send the
    system E to SE OTS and the Canadian says Ah Ha, I’ll sneak to the West of
    your stinken block????+

  38. I’m not convinced this storm doesn’t try to press back north and put the mid-Atlantic back in game for a snow event next week but think the probability of this storm impacting SNE in any meaningful way is very low. Block is just way too strong, keeping this storm suppressed. The Canadian is out in la la land.

    That said, I am not of the belief that our snow is done for the year and see some potential again around 3-11/12 when we are perhaps in a transitional pattern again. And as TK has pointed out many times, it can certainly snow here in late March and early April.

  39. snowcover.
    1-5
    0= none
    1. less than 30% snow cover.
    2 30-50% snow cover of 2 inches +
    3. 50-70%% snow cover of 2 inches+
    4. 70-95% snow cover of 2 inches +
    5 : 95%+ snow cover. 2 inches +
    This does not include snowbanks on the side of the road.
    please record so we can see the 50% lines location.
    If you are on a line. then please tell your %
    im almost certain no one inside of 495 has more than a level 3.

  40. After just getting in from outside, it really feels like winter is ready to break. Maps don’t say it yet but those stupid ladybugs are getting active in my house again and the birds are perking up.

  41. 12z FIM loop. Has the low coming off the SC coast and bombing out like the Euro BUT has the storm trying to make the turn northeast at hour 168 as opposed to the GFS/Euro which send it due east OTS. In fact, it comes pretty close to clipping Nantucket.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim7:&runTime=2013022812&plotName=3hap_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=236&wjet=1

    1. Interesting loop and certainly brings it WAY North compared to the
      0Z Run.

      Which resolution model did you use?

      15km, 30km OR 60km?

  42. Block looks really strong, still don’t buy such a southern solution as well. But doesn’t look so good for us in SNE.

  43. Charlie… I think we’re all set. Hadi organized it so check with him. 🙂 I’m just showing up. Should arrive by 6:45 (traffic permitting). Probably in a black/grey Bruins fleece jacket. Black and grey backward baseball cap optional. I may wait until they drop the puck (if we can see the game) to put that lucky hat on (actually a Red Sox hat but not in Sox colors).

  44. Euro builds 1032 high pressure right on top of us to shunt the storm away, then the high actually makes it’s way into the south after the storm, setting up a nice return flow driving the 32f B.L. temps all the way into the tip of Hudson Bay with 40’s/50’s here.

  45. Storm looks to develop 200 miles further south than yesterday’s run. Once pacific energy makes its way into the US it tracks toward the northern plains states but strongly digging southeastward off the south carolina coast. The upper level energy is initially strong but further intensifies rapidly upon picking up gulf moisture and slamming into the Atlantic. The question becomes: where does the strong bomb track from there. The storm will be massive and affecting states hundreds of miles to the north of its track. Even a track south of the BM could affect SNE. However, the EURO and GFS indicate that a strong block shunts this way out at sea. That’s the way I’m leaning but I wouldnt’ rule out a further northward track, especially once the storm enters the US. Model reading while the storm is in the Pacific and a week away from our latitude cannot be taken very seriously.

    1. The Euro really wants to build a ridge in the east and a trough in the west after the storm – pattern change?

      I still think it’s in play – we’ll see.

      1. Which is why I believe this is our last chance for a good dumping of snow this winter. When you get a strong storm
        you tend to see a pattern change. Snowicane was the perfect example of that in 2010. Once that storm hit the snowagedon
        the Mid Atlantic experienced that winter was over.

      2. I just read Margusity’s blog after my comment just so you guys don’t think I’m totally unoriginal and lame.

  46. As I always say anytime there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. I think this could be the last opportunity for a big dumping of snow for the winter of 12-13.

  47. From Weather Risk, language and all (I’ll clean it a bit):

    Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** ALERT *** 12z THURSDAY run of the GFS proves once again it is WORTHLESS piece of s**t when it comes to East coast winter storms.. by dropping the Low for next week into ARK then over MS AL and GA then over eastern SC and out to sea. This SOLUTION / track is a joke and should be IGNORED.

    2. hmmmmm…..did you forward them a copy of our glossary with the GFS definition. We’re first to market with that O.S.

    1. Hey, just because the GFS fared ok with the last event doesn’t mean it has the hot hand. Look how long it took the American car industry to restore its reputation. 🙂

    2. This threat may very well go OTS, but IF it does, it will be more like
      the FIM solution and Nothing at all like this morning’s GFS solution.

      An OTS scenario should take it ENE out to sea more North than depicted by
      GFS. That GFS solution is not likely imho. In fact, I can’t EVER remember
      a scenario like that.

      I can remember a LARGE and potent system clobbering NC and VA then
      moving ENE OTS well off shore, but not movement depicted by the GFS.

      GFS = “GOOD FOR S**T” 😀

      1. I used to use that for the GFS. 😛

        We had a whole bunch of them back in college, one for every model, and then added to them as new models appeared in the years following. I wonder if my friend Scott (not the Scott that posts here) still has the original list.

  50. Just came in from a 4 mile walk and it is very nice out though a little cloudy. Amazing how much snow is gone!

  51. Been in meetings in Amherst this week. So I have been pretty much out of the forecasting loop. Be nice to the GFS….Everyone loved it a week ago when it was giving them the solution that they wanted….

  52. I never said the GFS had the hot hand. Just stating the facts. As erratic as this model has been this winter, it still has the capability of verifying once in a while. Furthermore, the EURO demonstrates a similar path 😉

  53. I’m not impressed with the Euro or the GFS right now. 😛

    I’m not impressed with any models.

    I’m just generally…not impressed. 😛

    Time to get out the Old Fashioned New England Forecasting Table for the next blog update. 😉

        1. May I borrow some to toss in the general direction of my insurance claims adjuster please. I promise not to hit her

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