In Like A Sleeping Lion

5:23PM

We like to think of the “Lion” meaning unsettled or stormy weather, and the “Lamb” as being tranquil or fair weather. Well March isn’t about to come in lamb-like, but neither will it be much like a lion (maybe a tired one). We won’t see all that much sunshine during the first week of the first month of Meteorological Spring, but we won’t be seeing a whole lot of roaring from storms either. More like a sleeping lion as a lazy upper level low hangs around and keeps away any really nice weather. A few disturbances will bring chances for rain and/or snow showers now and then, but no organized storminess is expected at least through early next week. By the middle of next week, there is expected to be a significant storm near or off the Mid Atlantic Coast, but early indications are that this system will stay south of New England. As always, it will be watched.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers before midnight, transitioning to snow showers from northwest to southeast overnight but no significant accumulation is likely. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers early morning, rain showers late day. Highs around 40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 31. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

192 thoughts on “In Like A Sleeping Lion”

  1. Sorry but I can’t make it tonight. Just got out of a meeting and my little one had ear tubes put in yesterday and he is not happy. Enjoy!

    1. I was only able to stay for about 45 min’s but it really wished I could have stayed longer, had a great time!! 🙂

  2. I know I’m new, but would have liked to meet all who chime in… As a teacher (history) but I love science and I have learned a lot from this blog about weather/models/ and love being part of his little “weather world”
    Sorry I missed it but thanks for allowing me to be a part of this place, great learning and chatting environment.

    1. Besides not only am I a history geek, I also have a degree in athletic training. So I am a science/weather geek too!

      1. My SIL is interested in history and had planned to be an English teacher but was dissuaded by MA teaching restrictions. He is working with seniors now and is focusing on history and athletic training – also a focus. My son has a minor in history. I detested history in high school which was a very long time ago and am now fascinated by American history. Do you have a favorite period? And its GREAT to meet you 🙂

  3. Your son sounds like a smart guy 😉 I love rev and civil war… I was/am a reenactor for both in college(try balancing both of those while playing college football!. Loved doing Lexington and concord, and bunker hill, have done a ton of civil war including Gettysburg. Love teaching both… My high schoolers love it when I break out my uniforms, minuteman and a civil war doctor. (I have an actuall medical bag from the time period which they love) but it looks more like carpenters tools than a doctors lol..

    1. That is awesome. It’s why I didnt like history. No one related it. My husbands great great grand – or maybe 3 greats – fought at Gettysburg. Of all battles of civil war it captivates me. We have been to the grounds twice. You can feel the history. And we love the reenactments. And of course Lexington and concord.

        1. Prime targets: Mid-Atlantic states (NC, SC, VA, DC, Philly). It still remains to be seen if SNE is included.

  4. Great meeting the crew that made it b we think we should do it Gain come April or May but we want a bigger group, so I will work on location and time that can accommodate most everyone. Arod crushed several for ya 🙂

    1. Great meeting you guys tonight, Hadi, Charlie, TK, Weatherbee & Longshot!
      Let’s do one after the winter closes out and maybe we can recap.

  5. Also great meeting you guys…what amazing enthusiasm that was displayed for the science of weather. Gotta do it again and with more of us.

  6. Agree with all. Great to meet those that I met for the 1st time and great to see you again Hadi. Fun time. Must do again. 🙂

  7. WOW!! – 0z model runs have trended WAY NORTH!! What happened!?? 0z Euro and Canadian are now HITS for SNE and the GFS is way north as well!

    0z Euro has the coastal storm rapidly deepening near the Delmarva at hour 144:
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif

    It makes it as far north as Atlantic City and then just drifts east. At hour 168:
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

    I am reading that the precip shield delivers 2-2.5″ QPF from NJ to NYC and LI and even 1″+ in Boston! 60 mph wind gusts on the coast.

    0z Canadian is also very amped and a direct hit at hour 168:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168

    GFS is way north as well and has an area of 4-5″ QPF not too far off shore.

  8. Clearly the models are latching on to something in the 0z model suite. It was not uncommon this winter for the models to over estimate the degree of blocking in the long range so I am not all that surprised to see them shifting back north, but wasn’t expecting a shift this dramatic. The steady Euro is about 500 miles north of its previous run.

    I just read on Accuweather that the NWS may have done some reconnaissance aircraft sampling that may have been available for the 0z runs. This is unconfirmed.

    In any event, we are getting to within 6 days (approaching the mid range forecast cycle) where the Euro excels. This just got a lot more interesting!

  9. Hadi, Charlie, TK, Weatherbee and retrac — thanks for the evening. Great to meet everyone! Would like to try to do this a couple of times every year.

  10. I am not sure I heard this right, but I believe today or maybe this week is BB’s 35th year with BZ.

  11. Looks like models are picking up on a new track for next week’s storm. Can’t say I actually believe the models right now. Many more changes I suspect. Unlike many others, I am ready for an OTS solution, but the models never listen to me. 🙂

    1. Yeah I’m still leaning on just a graze or out to sea but these latest trends have me scratching my head, lets see if this trend continues or just a blip

  12. Caribou, ME : 13 inches of snow as of 10pm last night and I’m assuming it snowed the rest of the night. Happy Meteorological Spring to them !

  13. Gee …… Got the electric bill, it was a bit high, so I turned the fan off and now look, the EURO and GFS show that ocean storm a lot closer next week. :). I’m turning it back on !! 🙂 🙂 Vicki, send more fans ! 🙂

    Seriously, new moon next weekend, moon at perigee middle of the week, tides pretty astronomically high all week long, from a tide perspective, the coast would be very vulnerable next week.

  14. Good morning everyone. Saw some wet spots on the floor of basement this morning and the sump pump is still going. Alone else seeing water issues in the basement? I haven’t seen any since March 2010.

    1. nope. our basement has never flooded since that very active spring that had the marshland half way up my yard and almost reached the pool. . Ground wather went through. had not had water in the basement since. But the marshaldn is about 9feet but there is another 15 until it reaches the top of the old river bank. ps the end of my yard.

  15. i would love a good march snow storm. tom i hope you are pointing the fan towards us. I just do not see it happening. I really want to go to stowe this weekend to bad that i can’t 🙁

  16. Barry Burbank was officially hired by WBZ on March 1, 1978 and made his on-air debut on March 4, 1978. 🙂

  17. Good Morning all.

    Sorry I couldn’t make it last night. Sounds like you all had a great time.
    Wish I could have been there.

    re: Next week

    I was about to post a couple of Charts, but Mark has done that. I may add to those.

    0Z Euro looks great and then runs into a road block a drift E to ESE out to sea.

    Still, farther North than yesterday’s runs. Checking a few more and will be back.

    1. 0Z FIM also takes it OTS WAY to our South.

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim9/236/2013030100/3hap_sfc_f168.png

      Each run of the Euro should get more and more interesting.

      Canadian has been consistent now 2 days in a row. IS it onto something?
      Or is it a total OUTLIER? Btw, so far, I don’t see any improvement to
      the Canadian with its recent enhancements. Anyone else?

      The really funny thing going on right now is that the Euro and GFS are painting a similar picture so far for this storm.

      Needs to be watched for sure. 😀

  18. JR says all rain for next week’s storm. 🙁 If that eventually does verify then I would just as soon as to see it go OTS. Of course, since when does a rainstorm ever go OTS here in SNE? I am wondering though, if we could possibly have rain by day and snow by night due to nighttime dynamic cooling?

    1. NO way that system is rain here, UNLES it hugs the coast or ends up
      taking the inland route. If this is a benchmark or close to it, it is too dynamic of a system for it to be rain. It will snow.

      Btw, imho, it is more likely to go ots than hug the coast or be an inside runner.

      So to me, it will be SNOW OR NO. 😀

  19. wow – models really came around last night. Even the 6z GFS still delvers.

    Euro is nice and puts down a decent snowfall.

    Hills uplift and elevation impact really showing up on GFS and Euro.

    So long to go still…..

    Good advice last night TK on being patient!

  20. Regardless of what happens to SNE next week, the Mid-Atlantic is the first target…the only sure bet so far.

  21. From WxRisk.com

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/421857_381104961997262_432086741_n.png

    All eyes are on the intense shortwave set to dive out of the Rockies into the southeast US during the middle of next week!

    This system has the potential to bring heavy snow to the southern Appalachian and Mid Atlantic regions. As I see it now the coastal Carolina region stands the best chance of seeing a major or historical snow storm.. as many guidance models and ensembles really intensify the surface low near this area. Yes I know it sounds crazy.. but Myrtle Beach SC could see some HEAVY snow with this system!!

    The general track of the system is pretty uncommon so there are alot of unknowns still and it also should be noted that the newly revised Canadian model continues to hold firm with a much further north solution. I dont think its correct but it should not be ruled out. Below is my idea of a GENERAL track (it could certainly move north or south a little) with the shaded areas representing places that I think could see snowfall. I think folks in and near the Carolina coastal plain should be on guard for a possible major snowfall! Its way too early to talk about possible snow totals but I will have more on this system tomorrow.

  22. Here is a four panel comparison of the CMC, GFS, Euro and DGEX for next week’s storm. Euro snow map is in there as well. For SNE, it clearly shows boundary layer/ptype issues with a significant drop off in snow totals near the coast. This is not surprising to me with the strong easterly wind component off the ocean. However, away from the coast, say west of 128 and north of Hartford and Providence, it shows 6″+ building to a 12″+ in the Worcester hills.

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194297

    1. Nice Mark, Thank you.

      Still don’t think it rains in Boston. We’ll see, IF it ever gets up here.

      IF, however, the track HUGS the Mid-Atlantic coast or even tracks a bit
      inland in that region, before eventually turning more toward the East, then
      we could have mix/rain near the coast, eventually flipping over to snow. 😀

    1. Wow, strong wording. Im not familiar with the storm they are referring to as an analogy, 1962?

      1. I can’t be certain, but I believe it may be the one I alluded to
        yesterday where there was a monster storm down around
        VA and NC that tracked ENE and out well South of our area.
        All we received up here were some snow showers and a little light snow, but even up here the winds were very strong.

        That’s going a long way back, so I could be wrong. 😀

  23. I think I’m probably being a bitter Bostonian, but I just don’t see it all coming together. And if it does, smells like rain for the coast.

    Again, I’m probably just jaded!

    1. You may just be right. There is a lot of time and a lot that needs to happen for this to all come together in such a way that it impacts us here in SNE. In the meantime, we will watch and wait and I will get caught up on Sons of Anarchy… 😉

  24. Strong wording for sure. It will be very interesting how it unfolds. I think rain will not be an issue bc of the blocking, issue to me is being south of our area.

    1. I generally agree, Except under the scenario I described above.

      IF it hugs the coast or even tracks a bit inland and then, due to blocking,
      turns towards the East, depending when that turn is, we “could” have
      mix or rain along the coast for a time before changing to snow.

      Very interested to see how this all develops.

  25. HM tweet

    @Accu_Henry: This is will be a big storm for the East coast from Virginia to New England.

    1. Thanks TK. I didn’t recognize that name at all. 😀

      As long as you’re here, what are your current thoughts on this
      “potential” system next week? Still “leaning” towards an OTS
      scenario? OR has the latest guidance have you thinking otherwise or
      at least have you somewhat concerned?

      Curious?

      Many thanks

      1. If only one model had brought it closer I’d laugh at it, but…

        Something to watch……

  26. If HM thinks it’s a Big Storm from VA to NE, then the track will probably shift straight to Bermuda. 🙂

    1. 🙂

      Henry is all in on this one. He just can’t help himself! Gotta love him for his enthusiasm though!

      1. A bit premature at this point? No?

        Appropriate to discuss potential, but to speak in certainties
        is INSANE! 😀

  27. Go ots storm. I hope we don’t get anymore snow till next October or November, that’s the new trend right. Time to move on and think spring. After all it is the first day of meteorological spring, bring it on.

  28. Latest from Barry Burbank: (sounds a bit foreboding)

    Looking ahead, the potential exists for a bundle of energy to dig into the eastern states next week. With the aforementioned block in place, the storm will be unable to pass up over the region. The real question is how far north it can penetrate. Presently, most guidance is shifting the storm a bit closer so we will keep an eye on the storm as it probably will impact the region in some way, shape or form later next Wednesday and Thursday. We may be dealing with accumulating wet snow, rain over Cape Cod and more strong winds. It is too early to be highly confident of any specifics right now. Subsequent forecast cycles will certainly become more defining late this weekend and obviously into next week.

  29. 12Z GFS has upper winds digging.
    No Straight West to East at 300 and 200mb. Digging there as well.

    Looks very interesting so far!! 😀

        1. Negative tilt at 500mb and 300mb. SW at 200mb.

          Still looks to stay just a bit too far South?

          1. the circulation is so large O.S. they’ll be something.

            how about the sit n’ spin!

            I’m trying to hold off getting really jazzed up until Monday 00z the earliest but will still wishcast and hype in the meantime!

    1. Yes, only wish it were a “true” arctic High. 😀

      We need to get into the heavy precip to insure snow near
      the coast, else it could easily rain or mix along the coastal plain.

      LONG way to go.

      I find it very interesting how it hits the WALL and then bounces off and drifts to the South and Southeast.

      My Guess is, IF it has already trended this far North from the previous
      OTS off of South Carolina, then it will “Probably” still come farther North.
      HOW much is the question.

  30. Sounds as if you guys had a wonderful time last night – very exciting!!

    This morning Al Roker mentioned the storm as bringing snow to mid atlantic states up to DC but probably not to NYC. Everyone sure is calling it a monster. five inches of rain in puget sound area expected today.

    Tom – fans should be at your door when you arrive home today – if the company drying out our house misses them, I’ll send them your way too. BTW – how is the dog adjusting??

  31. Idk I wanna say winters over but this next week storm has something possibly up it’s sleeve, there is gonna be some cold around to work with, is anyone else seeing some consistency amongst models a slight warming trend after the possible snow event next week? It’s a nice day out there!

  32. This storm won’t produce snow for anyone inside 495 if there is east wind or no cold high to the north feeding down the coastline. Until I see something different then that I cannot get excited about this potential. Spring is here. Thunder Storm tracking is next on the agenda though a month or two out.

  33. So glad to hear that everyone had fun last night. I was going crazy at home thinking about where I was supposed to be. So frustrating!

  34. The GFS dumps a ton of precip but very little snow even through Worcester. That high of 1036 is in perfect position and should allow cold to bleed in. Way more time on this one for sure.

  35. As I feared, models are beginning to trend further north with this potential historic storm. However, I also spoke of a rain/snow line that will likely set up even though the storm may track well south of New England. As Mark alluded to, there will be a very strong easterly low level jet creating lots of boundary layer issues. Not to mention, climatology would also favor a rain/snow line to set up. Additionally, there is no real cold air to our north that will feed into this system. A cold H is very important this time of year. Unfortunately, we will have to rely on dynamic cooling in order for the storm to create its own cold air and cool the column enough to support snow inside of 495. Lots of time left.

    1. Nicely stated.

      We’ll have to see how far North it gets, what the orientation of the wind
      fields are and the exact placement of that High. We still “could” get a nice
      Northeast wind with this set up.

      Loads of variables in place.

      We’ll have to see how it plays out.

    2. Another factor Arod (eventually) will be if the slow drift takes place and when the winds eventually turn more northerly, there would be a flip to heavy snow that would last a while with a slow movement. Just need the right placement and the “juice” of course.

      1. You know, with all of this talk about a megastorm,
        the projected pressures are never that low. Like 985-990mb
        or somewhere in that area.

        One would think it would be lower. 😀

        1. That’s still not a bad storm O.S. Relative to some really low pressures this season (956mb), we can get too disappointed that it’s not 970 or lower.

          1. Wow!! Like I was saying last night in our conversating I thought that storm had it set up just right had the potential to be bigger than the Blizzard, take it easy retrac 🙂

  36. Arod, interested in your comment about a cold H to the north is important at this time of year. I swear I heard TK say just the opposite — saying an H to the north is not as necessary at this time of the year.

  37. We also discussed last night about the possibility that this might be a storm kind of like from a few years ago where the Wash/Balt./Philly corridor got waxed. TK (and correct me if I’m wrong TK) was alluding to how these kind of storms can be a signal to a dry pattern.

  38. I was away at a conference and could not attend the get-together. I am glad everyone had fun.

    Boy was I wrong (again) in thinking there would be some snow flakes falling from the remains of the cut-off low. Relative warmth has taken over. Ugly weather in my opinion. Just mild enough to prevent snow from falling. Almost constant cloud cover. And, just cold enough to require some bundling up.

    By the way, not much frost left in the long-range forecast. Disappointing. We are still too early for there not to be at least some remaining bursts of cold air. To our north, however, I do not see much in terms of real cold. This lack of cold will play a role in the upcoming event. Oddly, because of the jetstream, cities and towns 700 miles to our south and southwest will likely end up colder and snowier than we next Wednesday – Friday.

  39. uh oh — last time we had Charlie thinking something might be up and John saying no (well I know you are not really saying no as much as you don’t want but still….) we had Feb 9. Would you two mind reversing please……….we just don’t need another megastorm.

    1. I forgot about that Vicki! Nice reminder! See, it always pays to have a good record keeper. 🙂

  40. 12z Euro looking a bit weaker and further south at hour 120. Coming off the NC/VA coast at 1000 mb.

      1. I think that’s about right, maybe a little better formed when comparing to 00z at 132 hrs?

      1. Something isn’t right. Not skilled enough in these areas to know, but something smells fishy, like a dead Carp. 😀

  41. This run looks even stronger than 0z at the height of the storm, but obviously further south and less of an impact for us. This is going to continue changing a million times before next Thursday. Full sampling occurs on Sunday when energy comes ashore.

      1. Should have much better runs once that happens.

        Crap loads of model divergence here. 😀

    1. Further South and East, good !! The turning on of the fans again must be working !!

      Anyone see any warmth on the models ……. please ……. ?? 🙂

      1. I mean, is anyone else out there besides me ready to have a 65F day, where when you get home from work, and go outside free of the summertime bugs………sit on the deck comfortably in the fresh, springlike air. By next Sunday night, the 10th, that could be until 7pm in the light. Doesnt that sound better than more snow and cold and being not able to be outside quite as much ?

        1. Sure but if I get into spring mode and next weekend it snows I think that’s even worse, I want to be as closed to convinced that winters over before jumping all in, I still think that storm needs to be watched for next week

      2. I do see a slight warming trend after March 10th or so but it remains to be seen if that will verify

  42. Again I just don’t buy a solution that far south. History has shows us that a path like that is slim to none.

  43. I have 42.6 for total??

    MikeyMac 79.0
    John 76.5
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    North 55.7
    tjammer 54.0
    Hadi 53.9
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Kirbet 48.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    TK 39.3
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    JimmyJames 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Matt 30.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

      1. me too and you only have yourself and john to blame – you reversed thought process and the polarity of the globe went out of control 😆

  44. Experimental 12Z FIM Model

    at 132 houra;
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim/236/2013030112/3hap_sfc_f132.png

    at 144 hours:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim/236/2013030112/3hap_sfc_f144.png

    at 156 hours:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim/236/2013030112/3hap_sfc_f156.png

    at 168 hours:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim/236/2013030112/3hap_sfc_f168.png

    DUE EAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA. NOT buying that.

    Even so, the circulation is HUGE and it has it affecting us way up here.

      1. I think that’s the issue I’m not sure it gets flung out that far south, it really doesn’t make sense but will c 🙂

  45. We should have put some money on the seasonal snow forecast then it would have been real fun

  46. THis is going to go back and forth with the models. As I said yesterday I am rooting for this to hit us because I think this is the last chance for a big dumping of snow for the winter of 12-13.

  47. Good PM!

    I have 2 hours to do all the stuff I need to get done in the house today before I head out to a series of one-act plays at Endicott. Our dear friend Emily has a play that she wrote being performed this evening among the collection of them. Going to see that and taking my son along with me.

    In between chores I’ll be using a snow shovel to dig through the spam attack that hit WHW this morning. I swear the spam bots re-energize on the 1st of every month.

    I’ll catch up on comments but my replies may be lacking, so forgive me if I miss anything.

    I will attempt to update the blog before my 5PM departure. 🙂

    1. Don’t worry about the blog. Go enjoy. We’ll keep things rolling in your
      absence. 😀

    2. Break a leg Emily —— how VERY exciting. TK – please tell her how excited I am for her!

      1. She just arrived here since I’m driving up with her in a while.

        She says ‘THANK YOUUUUUUUU!!!” 😀

  48. Just was on BZ site to check up on the news…..

    Article over there saying that today is Barry Burbank’s 35 yr anniversary of when he was hired at channel 4.

    1. It’s a crying shame that he isn’t named CHIEF METEOROLOGIST
      and work the 6 and 11PM weekday broadcasts just like Harvey.

      Perhaps he wants it this way? I don’t know.

      Barry rules!

      1. They had a post on Facebook showing BB presenting the weather on the news earlier today using easels and paper in honor of his first broadcast 35 years ago.

  49. From the NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Forecasting the weather used to involve looking at a few forecast charts from one source and then deciding whether they had a handle on what was going to happen. Today, there are several sources of forecast information. Each individual source today provides far more information than was available from all sources 35 years ago today.

    In this image we have an overlay of the forecasts of computer models from three different sources (one USA, one Canadian, and one European) as seen by our AWIPS computer workstation. This compares what each model says the Thursday morning weather map will look like. You may recognize the H’s and L’s from conventional weather maps, and the isobars that surround them. The maps show a general similarity, but with differences in placement that would cause somewhat different results. These features will change with each run of the computer the next few days.

    Which is right? What will happen 6 days from now? Stay tuned.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/299771_414801715280872_961459002_n.jpg

    1. Thanks O.S.!

      I am going to repost this on the new blog which has just been posted. 🙂

    1. I think at 13 I was just interested in other things. It’s driving me nuts that I can’t remember

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