“The Atmosphere Wants To Snow”

270 Comments

10:10PM

The title is a phrase I have said, and still say, during snowy patterns in the late winter / early Spring. It seems like when we get into these patterns here in southern New England that it just finds any way it can to snow, and snow more than it “should”, at least in a good part of the region. It’s been doing that this evening and continues to do so as I write this update. Snow showers have been breaking out and moving west to east across the area. This is being triggered by an upper level disturbance that is still moving through. And it’s not going to be long before we are talking about a snow threat again, like how about right now? After this gets out of here we will see a chilly, gusty day on Wednesday with sun and clouds, and only a few isolated snow showers which should stack in the hills and mountains to the west and north, though one or two may find their way into this area. Elongated upper level low pressure will be in place over the northeastern US through the end of the week, and a connection between it and an intensifying storm at sea on Thursday will result in an inverted trough (haven’t we heard this a few times?) over the region. This will trigger another snow threat. Accumulating snow is possible, especially in eastern areas, and the greatest threat seems to exist for Cape Cod this time. A few to several inches of snow cannot be ruled out. As always, inverted troughs are hard to forecast and there is a chance that not too much comes of this threat.

The colder than normal pattern will continue and the next storm threat comes at the end of the weekend or the start of next week, but right now there is a pretty fair chance that this particular storm system will evolve too far south to directly impact this area. Nevertheless, it needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers, accumulating up to an additional inch, finally tapering off overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds, isolated snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially near the eastern coastal areas and across Cape Cod in the afternoon and night with some accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 42.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 42.

270 thoughts on ““The Atmosphere Wants To Snow””

    1. Awesome. Thanks. Looks good in that report. Btw, this was one time we
      totally agreed on a total. Could easily been 9.6 here. I stuck a yard stick in the snow, and I saw 9 1/2 inches. Didn’t get into the tenths detail. 😀

  4. Take that back tk it has stopped, a few flurries, looks as though that’s the last of this storm

  7. Looks accurate to me hadi from what I can tell, it has Bristol cty right with 2-3 inches total, well done

          1. i have been robbed constantly this winter. 😛 i still have a decent snowfall amount sofar this winter

  10. As soon as the clouds clear later tonight temps will drop to the upper 20’s becareful for black ice

    1. 1996 is when I used it most. It kept snowing that Spring, often, and lots. We’d’ have a “chance of snow showers” that would turn into 10 inches of feathers just like that. Even into April.

  12. Nam wants to snow on the cape Thu, geez what a below normal march temp wise and above normal snowfall

  13. Is the threat of Thursday evening snow mostly just out on the Cape, or into RI as well? I’m supposed to drive down to pick up a friend at T.F. Green at 5:30pm, and I’m wondering what I (and they) are in for.

    1. It’s a little early but I would say at this time a few flurries or a snowshowers in ri with little if any accumulation Thu evening,, out on cape may get more imo, have a good day

  15. Until the pattern breaks, perhaps I shall post an ob of a place that is warm.

    Brownsville, TX : Currently : Temp : 71F, Dewpoint : 70F.

    With this pattern, I may have to be at the equator in a few days to find something warm in the northern hemisphere. 🙂

  18. Thanks TK and happy New England spring everyone. Tom I like your warm area posts – they are a window into things to come while we still get to enjoy the snow!!

  19. Interesting read from BB blog this morning, he analogs some of the past Norlun Troughs and seems to be concerned about something occurring. He states how hard it’s to predict but interesting that he brought it up. For sure its something to watch and wonder if it blossoms, nothing would shock me this March 🙂

    1. Yes, something is up tomorrow night. Not a lot of snow, but I think 1-3 inches for Boston and more as you head south and towards CC and the Islands. Also, more snow early next week. Right now it doesn’t look like a big deal, but it could become one. There are some signs that the pattern may break in about 10 days or so. We’ll see. April snow is of course not out of the question.

  20. Most potent representation of next week’s possible system is from the 0Z
    GEM-GLB North America (mesh: 25 km interpolated to 33 km

    156 hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=156
    168 hours:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168

    This would clearly represent a pretty good Dump of SNOW. 850 temps way
    below freezing entire event. 😀

  23. FYI so if you look at the GFS long range ie April 3rd it shows a monster storm now normally I would not even talk about it, but with the monthly EURO that I get on Accupro the EURO is also showing the same system. Clearly it’s way out there but file it away and see what happens 🙂

  24. Boy also looking at the EURO monthly the only warm days that show up are around April 13-16 and then colder. It really does not warm up at all over the next 3-4 weeks. Sorry to pass on this info, I am really ready for some nice weather!!

    2. Perfect, thats the first 4 days of April vacation. I’ll take it. Sorry to those running the Boston Marathon.

  29. Good morning, haven’t really looked into the models today except the nam continues to hint at a 1-3 inch snow event across capecod and throws back occasional flurries and snowshowers back to Boston and Providence, doesn’t look big in the least, I see the April 3rd possible event, once we get into April though its not impossible to snow in April it’s rare, time will tell, I would bet that disappears from the model runs and either be further north or a rainstorm, a watcher for sure, have a good day everyone and happy spring, off I go

      1. See Barry Burbank Discussion Above.

        Models are NOT currently showing much at all and what it does
        show is for extreme Eastern sections and the Cape and Islands.

        BB is concerned that models don’t forecast this well and that
        it may be more than modeled. At the same time forecasting
        this type of situation can be treacherous. We shall see what
        happens.

        My guts says that IF it occurs, it will be relatively minor at
        least in Boston. Needs to be watched, however. 😀

  30. It will just be our fortune in Marshfield to sit under a heavy band of snow from the always sneaky norlun trof. With the way its been going, I suspect we’ll get 20 inches.

    Impressive that at 11am, its only made it 32F at Logan. The sun angle is currently about 40 degrees above the horizon, heading for a max angle of near 48 degrees at 12:50pm.

    1. Yup, it does happen.
      Stark contrast to last year at this time. March is such a fickle month. 😀

  31. Final total at Logan from yesterday’s storm = 7.2″

    Total snowfall to date = 63.1″ and #18th snowiest

    Total snowfall for March to date = 20.3″

    1. I heard minimal coatings up to 3inches for Boston coming in tomorrow night. That’s why I was surprised that nobody was talking about it on here.

  34. This winter just won’t quit; snow expected Thursday in Plymouth County, Cape, and islands

    By Lauren Dezenski, Globe Correspondent

    It’s the winter that just won’t quit.

    Though today is the first day of spring, it will feel more like the middle of winter, with highs in the upper 30s and wind chills in the 20s thanks to gusty winds, the National Weather Service said.

    Thursday won’t be any better, and Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the islands will see “plowable snow” beginning at 6 a.m. and continuing through the morning, meteorologist Bill Simpson said. Boston will likely receive between a dusting to an inch of the fluffy stuff.

    Temperatures will get even chillier Thursday, with highs only expected to reach the mid-30s.

    Weather patterns indicate that cold and potentially stormy weather will last for at least another week, Simpson said.

    This weekend’s high temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, with overnight lows between 15 and 25 degrees, forecasters said.

    Keep those eyes on the horizon for more storms, too.

    “We continue to be in an active snow pattern for at least another week,” Simpson said.
    Lauren Dezenski can be reached at lauren.dezenski@globe.com

  35. These Norlun T can be crazy, see BB link above about massive amounts of snow in a short period of time. Nothing would surprise me this winter.

  37. A coastal storm lurks off of our coast line Thursday evening but is too far out at sea to give many of us direct impacts. However, another inverted trough ‘tries’ to throw back some snow along eastern sections Thursday night into Friday morning. While I’m aware such an inverted trough was responsible for 20+ inches of snow a couple of weeks ago, I do not see another large scale event occuring again from this particular feature. It is highly variable and unpredictable but it is prudent to forecast the potential for up to a few inches of snow from Boston south with the greatest likelihood to be over the outer cape. Again, something to watch. Ugh. I want to go back into my cave but mother nature won’t cooperate!

    1. Agree TK. It’s unreal:) Do you think Boston will receive accumulating snowfall Thursday night? I feel 1-3 Boston south and 3-6 inches from plymouth to the cape seems prudent at this time. Thoughts?

        1. It’s really not Arod. I see text output for QPF from accu pro. It looks like more on the picture vs. what it’s really spitting out.

    1. I have a feeling the GFS may be right on this one. Storm looks to be suppressed too far south this go around. However, with the way this winter has turned out, it still remains a watcher!

  43. 1-3 Boston South with 3-6 inches over the Cape I think is a good call for now with the possiblity for more. Could reach advisory level snowfall in Boston and possible warning criteria over the Cape!

  45. I actually think there will be a small strip of 1-3 inches just south of Plymouth through Newport RI, Boston and Providence get into some flurries or light snowshowers that could coat the ground, and I think though it will snow on cape and islands I think some rain could mix in there and hold down accumulations to an inch or 2 IMO, time will tell 🙂

    1. Rain will not be a factor over the Cape. Get ready for bare ground to be covered again Charlie! 😀

      1. Haha that’s ok everything got done today, now it’s onto everyone south of Providence I have around 40 customers, they will be done Friday or Mon depending on snow/rain, and then next week all of southeastern mass gets 1st visits Foxboro to Hingham to Attleboro, thankfully everything’s on schedule.

            1. Airmass in place is even colder and with a coastal surface low well out at sea, I don’t see how rain plays a role. Can you explain how you think the mid levels warm up enough to produce rain?

  48. Models really have a hard time with these features, I think to be honest they are probably useless for this set up. It will be radar time.

    1. Agree. They do, however, give us some solid hints. That FIM exhibits the
      Norlun feature better than any so far on this event. The it is monitoring the
      radars and obs.

      Should be more fun!

      Look at the ribbon of precip on that FIM. Scary looking, isn’t it?

      1. It was that ribbon that nailed us 2 weeks ago when heavy snow continued to funnel in here. No one predicted that and therefore, this too will be very difficult to nail down. I agree with you OS. The feature is still there and we may not know how much snow it puts down until it happens. A few inches at least is a good bet from Boston south.

        1. Totally agree. Big bust potential as well.
          Conservative thing to do is forecast a few inches and
          update as necessary. 😀

  49. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Model Prediction Post Processor
    Flow-Following Finite-Volumne Isocahedral Model (FIM)
    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 60km FIM Area: CONUS Date: 20 Mar 2013 – 12Z
    Suracfe and precip at 42 hours:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013032012/3hap_sfc_f042.png
    Total Precip as of 60 hours:
    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013032012/totp_sfc_f060.png

    Please note: Still waiting on the 15km resolution run. Wondering how much
    more precip that will show with the better resolution?????

    1. Thank you for posting this, Ace – I don’t have Matt Noyes “liked” on my FB and had no idea how one became a trained spotter! I’d like to attend the class in Townsend in May!

    2. You may need to refer to TK on this but I don’t see that as the orientation of the Norlun that we will see. With a storm far out at sea, I would think the inversion would occur from west to east. I’m not sure that represents much of any importance IMHO.

      1. Arod,

        I don’t know about that. I’m hoping Tk or JMA chimes in.
        For certain the moisture on the 700MB chart is related to
        the Norlun, however, not sure about the 500mb feature. 😀

  53. Charlie, thanks for posting the snow cover map. The updated map on Friday may be worth framing after tomorrow night when virtually all of New England will have at least an inch of snow cover. On March 22nd! Wow!

      1. Oops sorry. I thought you meant all of new england will see an ‘additional’ inch of snow.

  54. Euro is rolling. At 24 hours it has the system WAY out to sea off of SC/NC. I mean
    way out there. We shall see what it does. Definite troughiness heading due North.

          1. The energy from this developing surface low gets absorbed into the parent low way down stream. This is why we need to rely on inverted trough to give us our snow.

        2. From looking at Wundermap, the Southern system intensifies and moves NE. It spreads some very light snow/showers over SNE and that is all. Not showing
          much of anything.

          HOWEVER, Next Week’s, Oh MAMA!!!!!!!!!!!

          1. What does next week show? The EC’s solution has been the most suppressed while the GFS has been the most amplified regarding next week’s storm.

              1. By the way OS was talking with OH MAMA I thought the EC was showing something. I don’t have access to the charts at work.

                2. Arod, yes. It had a rather potent system on the coast of VA, poised to come up the coast. At least the 500MB chart made it appear so, however, on the next frame it exited stage Right.

  55. From NWS at Taunton:

    HOWEVER…GOOD
    SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DIG SOUTH OF THE REGION SETTING UP A POSSIBLE
    NORLUN TROUGH ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE CONSISTENT…ANY
    TYPE OF SUBTLE SHIFT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    PTYPE…AMOUNTS…AND INTENSITY.

    1. I’m surprised that ptype would come to play except for extreme outer cape where very minor BL issue could be a factor. Otherwise, this is an all out through and through snow event with whatever snow we do get. Again, this appears to be a boarderline advisory level event. I’m interested in seeing what the NAM shows. If I recall, the EC doesn’t do a great job in advertising inverted troughs.

  56. If at all possible can somebody give me the timing on snow tomorrow night. I’m trying to figure out if I should drive all the way in if I may havto work. I usually park in Quincy. All winter I drove in but now I want to start going back to Quincy because of the truck. So go figure I parked in Quincy today and now I was asked to work tonight, go figure.

    1. Doesn’t surprise me. Euro is often on and off with its medium and long-range storms. No guarantees, but I’m guessing one or more will be back on in later runs this week. Also, tomorrow’s event will undoubtedly be a light one for most, but I do expect at the very least some ocean-effect snow showers on the Cape, Islands, and South Coast. And, I would not be surprised to see the outer reach of the storm brush Eastern Massachusetts with an inch or three, with heavier impacts on CC and the Islands.

  58. Unless Boston gets to 41 today (doubtful), it’ll be 11 days in a row that weather.com underestimates the cold. Here, I’ve gauged the accuracy of the forecast the evening before. So, for instance, yesterday evening weather.com predicted 41 as a high for Boston. It’s 36 now in Boston. Not sure if it got warmer than 36. It may have, but it did not reach 41 for sure.

  59. BTW EURO for next week only shows .41 for QPF for IAD which shows how weak the system is. Still a watcher at this point.

    1. Even so, that’s probably 3 inches of snow, perhaps more depending on ratio. And, I think the Euro is too conservative on the storm’s westward reach. My very humble opinion, Hadi.

  64. arod… Yes I think Boston will pick up a coating to 3 inches. Still up in the air based on the orientation of the trough. Will it be a norlun, or a “no-lun”?

    1. They’re usually a NoLun, except when they’re not and then WATCH OUT! 😀

      Loads of model divergence, but you have said many times, they don’t handle it well. 😀

    1. It’s not totally clear, so it might be up in the air, but looks to start
      tomorrow between 1PM and 7PM. Now there’s a wide range. 😀

      1. I was thinking it would start sometime Thursday or Friday, if it does at all, and if it does, it would drop some snow, maybe.

        1. 😀 That about sizes it up! LOL

          How about your current thoughts for next week?
          Still thinking an OTS scenario?

          Sure is a huge difference between the Canadian and the Euro. Is that based on how the models are handling blocking?

          Many thanks

          1. Leaning toward a strong block and OTS at the moment, but you cannot count anything out in this pattern. One thing I do know, the weekend won’t be as “mild” as some have advertised, and the below normal temp pattern is going nowhere fast.

            As I have always said, weather runs in regimes and cycles, short and long term, some very long term.

            Last year at this time we were in an exceptionally warm cycle that lasted a very long time. That’s no longer here.

            1. Boring I know, but I am in 100% agreement with TK here. OTS and cut advertised weekend temps by 4-7 degrees.

            2. Thanks TK.

              I’ll keep watching. One never knows what tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve???

            3. I can live with OTS and below normal temps. We have been enjoying a fairly cloudless sky in SE Mass today, so it is absolutely beautiful out.

  66. Our Japanese friends are on board with the Norlun Event. Have a look at this:

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif

    Norlun qpf

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif

    Now, there is an inch of qpf just off the Southern NE coast.

    If this orientation is not depicted correctly, and that slug of moisture gets in here…
    well, then it would be Game on. Loads at stake with this one.

    Snow or No and how much…..

    More on next week’s coming.

    1. Those maps have 24 hour precipitation totals, so adding the 2 panels we get
      .5 + .75 = 1.25 qpf. Not too shabby. There is such conflicting info on next week.
      I’d certainly feel better IF the Euro was on board. There is still time. 😀

  68. Hey look at tomorrow’s event this way, last time a Norlun was forecasted it was a bust, maybe this time we don’t plan on anyting and bam we get smoked.

    For the first time in a while we have TK and JMA saying OTS in a long time. hmmmmmmm

  69. Hadi,

    Take a look at the 18Z Nam. It is acting up and showing WAY more qpf
    for the Norlun than before. Still not a lot, but MORE. This is beginning to get
    really interesting. Will post in a bit. Run isn’t far enough out yet. 😀

  70. Here is what I think about next week, way too soon to say OTS, the NAO looks to relax a little and a further north track is likely. Wait and see IMHO

          1. And I didn’t say I was forecasting it, I just like those particular results and AM rooting for that. 😀

              1. I think you should know by now that I of course am rooting for it as well. However, it scares me when the JMA calls for a hit.

                1. I understand completely. I know it is not a favorite of yours. I always check it just to see where it stands compared to the rest of them. It really hasn’t been too bad. It’s not the Euro, that’s for sure, but I don’t think it is quite as bad as you think it is. 😀

                2. I concurr that it can be used as an adjunct and has been on board when other models support a large scale feature. However, when the EC depicts one thing, the JMA rarely is accurate without support from other models. I hope the JMA is correct 😀

  71. 18Z NAM Snow totals for “Norlun” event:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045

    3 Inches just about to Boston and Points S&E. Again, not much, be this is a clear
    UPWARD trend in qpf.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013032018&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=033

    And once again, I point out the heavier qpf just off shore. A change in the orientation
    and placement of that moisture and we would have Game on. Even so, it is getting
    extremely interesting.

    OF course, all of this exuberance needs to be tempered by the fact that this is the 18Z run. Wish it were the 0Z run, but hey, maybe that will be up some more.

    Makes inquiring minds wonder? NO? 2

  72. BTW I am reading the ERUO ensembles are much further north than the op, that’s a signal that the op might be off in track. Something to think about.

  73. NAM, Japanese, and GFS depicting more qpf than before, correct? Euro the lone hold-out? We’ll see.

    Btw, it’s up to 38 in Boston, still 3 degrees shy of the high predicted last night by our friends at weather.com. I’m willing to bet a lot of money on tonight’s low dipping below the forecasted 28. I’m usually not harsh on people, but I think 28 as a projected low, given the air mass on top of us plus the snow cover is dumb, plain and simple.

    2. I concurr as well but I’m afraid I’ll get chewed out if I were to criticize another MET’s forecast 😀

  75. Based on the 18Z NAM, this “Norlun” event figures to get going around or about 1PM
    tomorrow.

  76. Pete is calling for C-1″ for Worcester, 1-3″ for Boston and 3-5″ SE MA/Cape for Thursday night.

    As for next week he is now pulling out all the stops and calling for a nor’easter on Monday!!

    OS/Hadi/TK…can we believe Pete’s thoughts for Monday??

    1. He’s yanking that Straight from the 18Z NAM, that is all.
      His thinking is about as accurate as that NAM run.

      Could be right on. Could be underdone or overdone. Who knows. 😀

    2. ARGHHH

      I was commenting on the Norlun event. He’s calling for an all-out N’oreaster
      for Monday????

      He hanging his hat on the Canadian and Japanese models?
      No deference to the Euro at all???????? WOW!

  78. In addition, Pete is not calling Thursday’s event a Norlun Trough but instead as mere “upper level energy” moving up our coastline.

  79. I agree about next week IMHO, signals point for the storm to come north. Plenty of cold around and a favorable NAO and AO how can he not talk about it.

    Snow breeds snow folks.

    1. No fault in making mention of it but to call an all out noreaster 6 days out is irresponsible.

  80. I can see tomorrow’s event getting more and more as we close in, not sure how much but something screams watch out. NOT A FORECAST JUST A THOUGHT 🙂

    1. I totally and completely agree. Whenever wee keep seeing these trends and the qpf keeps creeping up it is a clear signal.

      I wonder as we get closer still, if the models are handling it better and thus
      the increased qpf?

      0Z runs should be really interesting to see.
      Even the 18Z GFS will be worth taking a look see.

  81. How about Worcester being the snowiest city in America with a population over 100K!!! Pretty amazing to say the least.

    1. Yes, they beat Buffalo, which would probably be their only competition anyway.

      I’m sure there are cities that would beat it, but they are small cities, population not reaching 100,000.

      But, I’m probably missing something. 😀

      1. I had an argument with a college professor about Boston Snowfall vs. Buffalo. My argument was, take away the Lake Effect snows, and Boston receives more snow than Buffalo. He indicated not so
        (He was from Buffalo btw)

        In my stubbornness, I still think I am correct.

  82. Anyone Know if the NOGAPS or now called navgem has been Retired?
    I haven’t see a run posted on that since 3/16. Curious.

  83. And once again Pete is misguiding the general public regarding his over confidence in next weeks so potential storm. His forecast may indeed verify. It’s not his forecast I have a problem with. But again, it’s his way he communicates his forecasts that concerns me. I’m not even going to go there. We know what happened the last time I disagreed with Pete’s delivery. Nevertheless, to Pete’s credit, his forecast for tomorrow’s event seems prudent and very reasonable at this point in time 😀

    1. Given Pete’s track record lately of underplaying storms, his reputation IMHO is certainly on the line. For his sake it had better be good and stormy come Monday. At least the other mets are playing Monday ever so cautiously as they should 5 days out.

      1. Totally agree Philip. And again, this is not a knock on Pete as a person. I actually like his demeanor. I just feel he never learns.

      2. On air at 5 Pete said “this comes up the coast, and hits us, I’ll bet a piece of pie on it”

    2. I like Pete’s style. He doesn’t take himself too seriously–hypothesizing about what could happen 5 days out, when clearly stating that the models don’t have it hitting us, and he owns up when he blows a forecast.

      1. That’s great that he owns up to it. But the problem is (as you said), “he doesn’t take himself too seriously.” However, the public clearly does! He is a professional so he is to be very careful how he informs the public and should take himself very seriously as a professional.

        1. In truth i believe he takes himself very seriously. But you probably know him better so ill defer to your opinion.

          1. Arod I have already forgotten and moved on. I know it takes longer for some and I’m patient so no worries

              1. Vicki. I know PB is your little binky but that doesn’t mean you should take a shot at me 😀

                1. Hahaha. You mean like your several comments yesterday and today that if you say anything you’ll be crucified or crushed when I have not once mentioned anything. My suggestion would be to call a truce. I don’t play games and respect others here too much to continue.

              2. Truce sounds great to me. I still enjoy your comments on the board Vicki :D. As I said previously, I don’t take this personally. Life is too short and fortunately for me, friends, family, loved ones, patients and clinical colleagues have a positive opinion of me. But truce it is! 😀

                1. Works for me. You are right. Life is far too short and there is never a downside to a disagreement. We learn and grow that way.

                  BTW my husband roared when you said Pete is my binky. Actually he was asking why I was laughing so I had to tell him

                4. whoa………no one told me there are republicans here —– now I really have to rethink things 😉

  84. Hey Dave – it appears you are an exceptional mediator – thanks!! Not to mention that you also have great insight 😉 Thanks twice 😀

  86. Its funny to be able to not be a fan of a person and yet be able to detail exactly what they said. So…….not crazy about a person’s performance and yet we go back to watch that person over and over and over and over. Thats quite logical !

    I’m sorry for getting into the Pete fray, but I went to school with him, had him as a roommate for a year and know that he has earned his keep in both his weather background and profession. So really, its enough. We get it, a bunch of people here are not crazy about him. Certainly entitled to that opinion. Then, my suggestion is stop watching him and giving us a detailed day by day opinion of his faults.

    3. I think Pete Bouchard is a great guy and foes not deserve to be disparaged. It’s not cool at all and I hope that this is not a forum where we bash others.

  87. Man, I thought it was john and coastal going at it, then i looked at the names and i was like whoa! 😉 Im glad we came to a truce

  88. That storm on the 18gfs for the 25th kind of has the early look like the one that dumped 2′ of “out to sea”on us. Main low dying off in Ohio…low forming off Va. capes then heading due east…….Just sayin’…………

    P.S.

    The origin of my “2′ of out to sea”….

    I remember a time when I was maybe ten or twelve having stayed overnight at my cousin’s house, I got up the next day to swap morning greetings with my uncle who was groaning and squinting over a wrenched back complaining about how we got ” 6″ of partly cloudy last night”. (his way of saying a busted forecast requiring a shovel in the end. I never forgot it and smile to this day about how simple and funny it was) So, what I’m saying is the 18z GFS looks like 6″ of partly cloudy to me.

    1. 6 inches of Party Cloudy, that sure sounds like a Blow Don Kent Forecast!!!

      LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  91. I have an idea. If boston reaches warning level snow from the monday storm, alisonarod has to change his name on here for a day to “iLovePeteBouchard” 😀

    1. As I’ve said tell him Vicki from framingham says hi and come on over here. Please don’t tell him he’s my binky. 😉

            1. Yep. Again I think you are right. I got an email from him a bit ago that made me think he’s reading here.

  93. I have to make a confession. With all of the discussion I just realized we are talking about a storm next Monday. What the heck??? We are staying at a hotel along nanatasket in Hull Sunday and Monday. Although I’d love to be at the beach, evacuation wasn’t really on our agenda

  94. I love the 18z GFS’s 165-hour forecast that shows a high pressure area extending basically from the North Pole to the Gulf of Mexico. 🙂

  95. TK have to agree with you on the OTS solution. The blocking may be too strong early next week as it is forecasted to be lower than it has been all winter.

  98. Just got in from work. Does anyone have a start time for tomorrow and is Boston still on for 3inches. Trying to decide if I should drive all the way in. Thanks.

    1. john, i think anytime during the afternoon is possible, IF this happens. Even if we get some snow in here i dont think boston sees 3.” Heavier down toward the south coastal areas on MA and RI from most guidance today. But i wouldnt base your decision on that. Unfortunately, this is so tough to pinpoint, we may not know until its right on top of us

      1. Thanks ace. To play it safe I’ll drive in so if it comes and I need to stay I’ll have my truck appreciate it.

  99. I can’t even think about the weather. The B’s are going south lately! 🙁

    I do have a weather question though. Will CT likely get more snow than MA tomorrow? I have a choice to go to CT tomorrow or Fri.

    1. I hear you, Longshot. The B’s looked invincible to start this shortened season, but now they cannot hold a lead. I think all of their losses have been 3rd period comebacks by the other team. Not a good sign. I must say I’m also not thrilled with Rask’s play. In fact, I’m concerned. The 2nd goal last night – the most important one in my view – was just so soft. I’ve seen too many goals like this, particularly in crunch time. Come playoffs, they need a clutch goalie.

      Your question on when to travel to CT depends on: a. Time of day/night – `worst’ of this minor event will be in the early evening, I think; b. Where you’d be going. I figure most of CT will not see much action from this system, with the exception of coastal areas, especially those close to RI (Mystic, New London, Stonington).

  100. Following Mondays potential storm, models show a milder trend with highs close to 50 degrees for highs, happy 1st day of spring, alot of work to do Friday, have a good night 🙂

    1. Depends very much on where you’re located, Charlie. We know the dry slot will impact your area, as will higher temperatures. Kidding aside, I think we’re going to see some fairly significant regional differences in temperature profiles in the coming 10 days. As I mentioned before, I’ve noticed how Providence has been milder than Boston, and sometimes by a healthy margin (4 to 5 degrees; which is more than normal for sure). We may see more of these local or regional differences. My guess is Providence will see 50 next week, perhaps even several days, but Boston will likely not. It will be milder than this week, but not by a whole lot.

    2. Not sure if you saw my update above about the monthly euro. Not sure where you see “warmth “. I guess if you consider 45 warm. Also you need to be specific about warmth IMHO location wise.

  101. See ya guys. Taking a break from the blog. I will return during gardening season. Enjoy Spring. It was nice chatting with all of you! Thanks TK for setting this up.

  103. Hadi, I do think 50 degrees is a good chance south of Boston on Tue and possibly Wed, then we settle back to the mid 40’s for highs through next week, yes it’s cold for this time of year, but it’s still March, it’s expected, anyways take it easy hadi

  104. Snow flakes in the air in Rockland.

    Tom based on the radar you should be seeing some flakes as well.

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