You Can Feel It In The Air

156 Comments

8:27PM

Even with an overall cooler than normal pattern, we’re now in the time of year where you can feel it in the air. You can tell we’re climbing fast, climate-wise, out of the winter pit. The next few days will hold even more of this, as it is somewhat milder, despite the passage of a storm system Sunday night. There is a significant shot of chilly air waiting in the wings next week, but for now with a slightly faster and flatter jet stream flow, I’m looking at things being on the dry side, absent of late-season snow threats, for most of next week.

For those celebrating Easter this Sunday, expect a mostly clear and chilly start for sunrise services, sun giving way to clouds during the course of the day but turning milder (well into the 50s except where a southerly wind comes off the water where it will be cooler), and rain holding off until the very end of the day or at night, arriving from west to east.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Rain arrives south and west of Boston by late day. Highs 54-59 except 48-53 south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds depart early and return late, with plenty of sun in between. Showers/thunderstorms possible evening and early at night west fading to showers east. Low 48. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 33. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

156 thoughts on “You Can Feel It In The Air”

  2. Thanks TK. I would say if we don’t get any snow events by the end of the first full week of April (7-13) then we are done with them until next winter.

  3. In my yard the snowdrops are starting to wane a bit and now crocuses are taking over with tulips soon to follow. No signs of buds on the trees just yet…plenty of time for that.

  4. Thanks tk, another quick question do you still think we have 2 measurable snow events coming this month? Thanks for all the hard work, ps I don’t think anymore snow is in the cards 🙂 Vicki yes I hear that going crazy

    2. I’m not TK……just in case you didnt notice ;). I wouldn’t be surprised at one more event but I sure would be surprised by 2. BTW if we had a pool, I’d be opening it early too. Just in case and just for fun

    3. Measurable, being 0.1 inch or greater, yes I do, but not every area will see it.

      I am unimpressed with the Euro, because it’s not consistent at the moment. So I’m not full-on buying it’s mild pattern later in the period.

          1. I’m sorry that’s wrong,, at this time of year it’s a 5 to 1 ratio so tk is saying at least an inch of snow rough est I believe

    1. Nice!! Today was a crazy day and frustrating day at work but getting outside for 15 minutes during the mid afternoon made everything seem alright…a nice early spring feel to the day.

  6. Thanks TK! I saw your picture you posted on the last blog so I will be on the lookout the next time I am up your way! Hope the spaceships don’t get me!

  8. Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    The highest temperature ever recorded in Boston in March is….
    A. 78
    B. 86
    C. 89
    D. 93

    No cheating with those Google searches! Answer later today and I’ll throw in the date too.

  9. Thanks TK !

    As Charlie pointed out above, the EURO has been going back and forth in the long range in handling the transition to neutral or slightly positive NAO.

    With that said, it has my idea of eye candy in the long term, with a piece of the western US warmth breaking off, headed east. It shows 850 temps of 16-20C !!!! near Chicago on day 10. Hello 90F ? (I know it will change, but it is another signal that by mid April, there is probably going to be a period of above normal temps).

  10. going on probably what is the last ski trip of the season. not because of the lack of snow… its just timingo of others stuff and the fact that wachusett closes next weekend and it will be mobbed. Some great spring skiing.. i might have one more trip up north but not sure.
    then coloring easter eggs tonight
    then easter baskets and breakfeast then easter egg hunt. then my grandparents that i have not seen since christmas which should not happen. 2 months is way to long to not see the grandparents. 😀

    1. oh also its gonna be a fantastic day weather wise. im not bringing my winter coat though. 😉

  12. I think it soon will be time for a few of you to eat some crow including Mark 😀 Spring is here to stay and snow will have to wait another 8 months or so 😉

  14. I’m not eating anything until May 1, then I will gladly admit that I am wrong!

    Anyone notice the euro has the coastal storm back for next Saturday? Of course there’s no cold air in sight, for now, but its there 🙂

  15. I think were done with measurable snowfall. I won’t rule out snow flakes in the air for the early part of April but thats about it. I hope next winter is as good if not better than this winter. Who came close for the total snowfall at Logan this season? I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms!

    2. Hahahaha. We r cooking for our family’s Easter dinner today since our son cant b here tomorrrow then tomorrow will celebrate with our girls and grands. Sadly there is no chance of my computer being on till Monday but ill post then. Sorry 🙁

  17. Was out and about earlier. Car thermometer topped out at 57 degrees. Really NICE!
    No coat required.

  18. One week from today, I give you these with 850mb Temps cold enough to support,
    Um, err, ahh….SNOW:

    GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013033012&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=150

    GEM:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156

    UKMET:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=144

    FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013033012/3hap_sfc_f150.png

    Mark, I’m with you, we’renot quite done with this WINTER. 😀

    Now this is a week out, but none-the-less, we have ourselves a watcher. 😀

    1. Granted, the 0Z Euro has this at 168 hours and has it Warmer that the above
      Models. 12Z run due very shortly. We’ll see how ti changes, if it does.

  19. I KNEW IT. I saw you’d posted Old Salty and just knew you’d have good news about the possibilty of snow. Nice 🙂

    We have windows open and the sun is pouring in. What a great spring preview

    1. I would have posted yesterday without news of snow. Was just too busy at work
      and we went out to dinner with friends last night.

      What a glorious day out there! Going out again soon. 😀

    2. Vicki, Even if that storm comes to pass, it could still be just a spring rain.
      We’ll have to see how much cold air is left around by then. 😀 And add to that,
      there could be some boundary layer issues near the coast. Much up in the air, But something to watch just in case.

      1. I know I was kidding and glad to see u here. I think everyone was busy yesterday with holiday prep and fun

  22. OS, I’ve been watching that 4/5-4/6 time period for the past several days. models have fairly consistently been showing a storm forming over the Gulf and tracking into the southeast. With a juicy storm on the Atlantic coast to our south and cold air in Canada to our north, it bears watching, regardless of what month we are in!

    1. Yes, I know you have. I didn’t have much to say before, but now that it is
      a week out, it’s getting interesting. Sure it could still rain and it could go OTS, BUT, clearly we need to keep an eye on it. Spring can be very tricky in New England. 😀 (btw, doesn’t matter how warm it is today or tomorrow!)

  24. The models across the board have come significantly north with this storm over the past few days. Wouldn’t get too caught up in the fact that it is OTS now. There is a definite trend towards a potential impact next weekend.

  25. Wouldn’t it be funny if Charlie was chowing down on some freshly sautéed crow a week from today?

  26. I gotta tell ya everyday that goes by and I look at models and trends I do not see even a slight chance for snow, even that timeframe that some are talking about I feel like most have been talking about seems minimal at best, I think we’re chasing a carrot and there is no carrot IMO, anyways enjoy another beautiful day 58.8 degrees

  27. If you don’t like it sautéed, I would also be willing to grill or bake it for you. Might be a bit healthier 🙂

  28. Still have two large patches of snow in my backyard. Boy is it taking a long time to melt! Have a good day 🙂

  29. My boys and I have had a very enjoyable day looking for sea creatures at Nelson Beach. Hunted for crabs and then hit the playground. It was a tad chilly on the water but the fresh air felt so good. Figured we better get in a day outside before next week’s snow. 🙂 Happy Easter/Passover to all!!!

    1. We made it onto Brant Rock beach around noontime. My youngest and I put our feet in the water and it was borderline painful. However, the sun was strong enough to make the sand comfortably mild. Lots of other people out as well, it fealt great !!

  30. Pumped up kids’ bike tires today – a true sign of Spring!

    No egg hunting in my yard this year. Still have 95%+ coverage with average depth of 8″.

    1. That’s crazy we’ve had bare grounds for weeks, set up 2 yards with Easter egg hunts for tommorrow morning, grass is actually green, it might be bc I applied a fertilizer 1 week ago, its crazy how different it is, temp reached 59.6 degrees at 2:30 it has come back down to 55.9 degrees, have a good day retrac 🙂

      1. Yes, the lawns are greening up a bit in spots. Almost seeing a bit of grass growth in the sunniest areas.

            1. O geez most of my customers down in this neck of the woods mow there 1st around the 3rd week of April, anyways I’m sure it’s behind there 🙂

              1. I’ll try to remember to keep track. We have a company treating the lawn for the first time in a while. Husband has been doing it but not consistently enough. I’m not sure if ill like a service or not. We are really picky about the lawn being treated with kids on it even with the organic stuff

                1. Vicki my company is the most professional customer oriented lawn company out there, if you have any problems let me know

                3. Oh yes, I have customers there as well as around 50 customers spread out over your stomping grounds in uxbridge,Douglas,

  31. Even a Spring scrooge like myself must admit that today is a gem. Really nice. If only spring could be this delightful on a consistent basis. But, I’ll take it one day at a time.

  32. My boys had the first practice of their little league baseball season today. The field that we usually use still has a foot of snow on it. We used a different field that was mostly snow-covered, but also had a fairly good-sized bare patch. It sure was a beautiful day.

    I noticed that there were already many insects buzzing around – there should be a rule about them having to wait until the snow is gone!

    1. The “stink” bugs are out in force as well as those swarming lady bugs in the house we refer to as a zombie apocalypse.

  34. Hi All. Answer to today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz.

    The highest temperature ever recorded in Boston in March is….
    A. 78
    B. 86
    C. 89
    D. 93

    Those who chose C are correct and it occurred on March 31, 1998. (JJ also had the right month and year.)

    1. I didn’t answer this one because I knew it was 89 on 3-31-98. The reason: I left for Disney World Florida the next morning just after a back door cold front dropped it into the 40s (brr) and we arrived in FL to lower 80s and muggy air.

    2. I remember that bc I was working at nec Packard bell and they were scrambling to turn all the ac units on, hot day for sure

  35. Noooooooo i saw April 5-6 porential for something mentioned above. my four year old granddaughters fourth bday was dec 29. We all know what happened that day so her party was postponed. Then it was postponed 2 more times for illness They finally made it for April 6 figuring snow threat would be minimal.

  36. went skiing today with my brothers and dad. It was great in the morning. the harder trails were actually more fun and less difficult than the lower right because of all the activities being based in that area. I went to wachusett today not knowing that the skip pond was today. whoops.

    2. 😀
      ALL of the models point to something overnight Friday 4/5 into Saturday 4/6.
      Early indications (I do mean Early. :D) are for a rain to snow situation.

      Here is one model example (The Canadian):

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

      1. From NWS:

        SUGGESTING THE CLOSEST PASS IS NOW MORE LIKE FRI NIGHT.
        IN TERMS OF THERMAL PROFILES WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE WARMER
        ECMWF AND COLDER GFS FOR THE TIME BEING…WHICH STILL DOES
        INTRODUCE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX AWAY FROM THE
        COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER…DURING THE DAY
        FRI…BL TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SNOW CHANCES UNLESS A COLDER
        NORTHERLY DRAW APPEARS LIKELY OR DYNAMIC COOLING IS ENOUGH TO
        OVERCOME THIS TOWARD THE EVENING. A LOT OF PLAYERS STILL YET TO
        COME IN LINE.

        1. I’ve thought all along there’d be “one more”. We’ll see because we’re in overtime now.

          1. We’ll see what materializes, but this could be it?
            Standard fare where mets say rain most of the week and then crap their pants the day before when the realize that !*@&#*(!@#&*((&*(#
            it’s going to snow. 😀 😀

            Of course it could still rain or be OTS, but ALL the models have it to one degree or another. Some a closer pass than others, but it is there on all.

            AND there is COLD air very nearby.

            This one is a WATCHER indeed. 😀

  46. I remember March 31st, 1998 well. I believe we had just had a small snowstorm (4-5 inches) a couple of days before it hit 89. The snow melted like crazy, of course. But that day (March 31st) I believe remembering Tim Kelley pointing out the incredible differences in weather across New England. Northern NE was getting a fairly major snowstorm with temps in the 20s while parts of SNE were in the upper 80s and I think a few spots went over 90.

    Happy Easter everyone!

      1. Yes, I remember that afternoon. Colleagues at work were
        asking me around Noon time IF is was going to snow and if so, how much. I said yes and rose my hand from the floor to above my knee. 😀

        1. Thanks OS…I am somewhat surprised that Worcester still got so much more than Boston (33″ vs. 25.4″). I always thought that it was much more of an eastern MA storm. Worcester is not the “snow capital” for nothing I guess. 😉

          1. I’m sure the ratios had much to do with it.
            I’d venture a good guess that the total qpf at Boston was more. 😀

  49. I hope everyone who celebrate’s Easter has a wonderful holiday.
    I remember 16 years ago very well and having my one and only April snow day thanks to the April Fools storm. It was great being able to stay up and watch the National Championship between Arizona and Kentucky since school was already cancelled the next day.

    1. Fringe effects from passage near the benchmark???????????????????????
      HUH?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

      I GIVE UP!()@#(&*(!@&#)*(&!@#&*!@^#*(!@#*^!@(#*^&!@#^!^*@#&&

      The track off the coast is to the northeast, so there is a potential that this low will track near the bench mark where we could start to see some fringe effects from this low..Showers are possible by Friday night and may even mix with snow showers by dawn Saturday morning across eastern MA. It won’t last long.

      1. Nobody is going to go out on a limb this early in the forecast and this late in the season, that’s for sure. Even if the maps start showing it for real, it’ll be largely kept quiet until Wednesday IMHO.

        Euro is still OTS and can’t be ignored.

        Cold air is there to be sucked into it though.

        1. I don’t think that the Euro is OTS, although tough
          to know for sure with those 24 hour increments.
          But I tried extrapolating, and it looked to me to pass
          very near the benchmark. 😀

      2. OS…don’t get discouraged by Joe’s comments. He may have to eat that “safe from snow storms” comment yet. Spring snows come very suddenly out of the blue. You are much older than me but I have yet to see a spring snow event forecasted well in advance. In fact, they usually end up being nowcasted if anything. Even NWS has the possibility of snow even at the coast away from the Cape late Friday dependent on dynamic cooling, etc. Let’s see what TK says.

        Regardless, I do believe that the Fri/Sat potential will the final call for snowfall this season. 🙂

        1. Philip,
          Yes they won’t go out on a limb and predict snow. However, there were some I sure as hell knew it was
          going to snow in advance. 😀

    1. My crocuses are past but we had a beautiful vase of daffodils from our garden on our Easter table. I love yellow dafs in a cobalt blue vase 🙂

        1. 12Z FIM:

          http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013033112/3hap_sfc_f132.png

          85omb temps very iffy:

          http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/from_jet/fim7/236/2013033112/temp_850_f132.png

          This run is the closest of all.

          Look, it’sa long way out. The point of all this is that
          there is a Potential storm. ALL indicators point to one.

          The questions are:

          How close does it pass?
          What are the thermal profiles?

          Also, precip to be falling at night, so IF the thermal
          profiles are favorable and there is enough dynamic cooling, this “could” end up a sizeable snow storm.
          I emphasize “could”

          All eyes SHOULD be on this potential.

          😀

    1. We drove hopkinton on the way back from my daughters in Uxbridge OS. My daughter kept her horse and pony on Adams st in holliston right in the hopkinton line. We were amazed and upset by the building on just the couple of miles of south and north mill in hopkinton The saddest was the development of the equestrian facility where she began riding of the Ashland/hopkinton line. It literally made me cry. I’m sorry to see the lovely land in those areas being developed. I thought of your daughter as we drove through

  56. my garden is covered in yellow,purple and white crocuses with tulips and dalfs comeing up now.

  57. I don’t get this:

    1PM Logan obs: 50 wind East at 10
    Blue Hill 57 Wind SW at 17

    These sites are but about 10-12 miles apart!!!

    Norwood at 59

      1. Really? I did not know that. 😀

        Seriously, of course logan has a sea breeze.
        The point I’m making is that 10 miles away the wind
        is SW at 17!!! I’m 5 or 6 miles from logan and it is
        just abut 60 here with NO sea breeze!
        It’s an insane place to keep records for Boston. 😀

  59. Hello Everyone!

    I’ve been away a little bit. We got some snow potential?? Oh boy so I won’t get any work done next week.. HAHA

    Anyways I hope everyone has a Happy Easter! Enjoy your family and friends and be thankful for the wonderful things in life.

    Catch up with everyone later today.

  61. OS…I don’t know if you know this but weather observations were recorded on Boston Common up until 1936. I remember Bob Copeland would mention this fact on air occasionally. Of course we all know where they have been kept since. 😉

    I have no idea why airports have weather observations anyway…at least “official” ones. Oh well.

    1. In Providence they take records from TF Green airport and the airport is 10 miles south of Providence, go figure

      1. Interesting…at least Logan is no more than 1 mile or so from the actual downtown Boston if I am not mistaken.

  62. I agree os bc the averages this time of year at my house is in the mid 50’s and the average high will be 60 degrees on April 17th here but in Boston or technically Logan it doesn’t reach a 60 degree high average till end of April, have records at Logan really tells a fake story here in spring

  63. We’ve hit 60.4 degrees today, a 3rd consecutive day of 55-60 degrees, a very nice Easter Spring weekend indeed

  65. Upcoming week may see 60+ twice but it not absent of a snow threat. April is coming! And the blog is updated!

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