1st Tropcial Cyclone To Bring Beneficial Rain

141 Comments

2:29AM

Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and will lift northward during the next few days, impacting our area with some significant rain. The time table for heaviest rain appears to be late Friday through very early Saturday. Though some rain may take place ahead of that as warmer air comes in aloft ahead of the system. With luck, this system will lift out of the area early in the weekend and the balance of the weekend will turn out decent.  There is no significant heat in sight at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Highs 70-75, 60s some coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers developing from south to north late. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, some may be heavy with embedded thunder. Heaviest rain late day and night. Highs 65-70, cooler coastal areas. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Early showers. Low 62. High 74.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 60. High 74.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Low 58. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Low 59. High 74.

141 thoughts on “1st Tropcial Cyclone To Bring Beneficial Rain”

  1. Thanks TK !

    997 mb, 60 mph for Andrea and a bit of a better satellite presentation.

    I’m tired, I think we need a 2 hr Bruins delay.

  3. Andrea looking a little more organized. I “think” I saw BB put up a rain map showing a wide swath of 2-3″ for Friday including eastern MA but I am not 100% sure because I saw it at the last second. Also looks like rain could be outta here by Sat am.

    Agree Tom, what a GAME and I watched the whole thing — over 4 hours. Beregeron has been nothing less than a life saver. Reports that Campbell broke his leg on that shot stopping play.

  4. Good news/Bad news:

    What an unbelievable Bruins game last night!! I truly think that it was the single
    best hockey game I have ever witnessed. Spectacular!!!

    So sad that Gregory Campbell broke his femur blocking that shot. The Bruins will
    sorely miss him.

    Re: A tropical System
    I’m still rooting for an OTS solution. Not likely to happen, though.

    GFDL:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013060606-andrea01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=054hr

    HWRF:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013060606-andrea01l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=054hr

    CMC:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013060600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=060hr

    GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013060606&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=054

        1. Vicki,

          I think it means that the dry air to the West of Andrea will NOT affect the system. I think anyway.

          We shall see. 😀

  5. Wont be surprised one bit if next recon flight finds even lower pressure than 997mb, higher flight level winds and possibly this thing attains hurricane status.

    1. Believe me, I understand that. I just DON’T want to see any more
      bleeping rain. We’ve had enough already.

      I HATE to see it rain this time of hear, absolutely hate it. 😀 😀

      If it has to rain, showers at NIGHT would suite me just fine.

      1. Ironic to see the biggest snow wisher not wanting more liquid…guess you only like it frozen? 🙂

  8. Andrea’s projected “problem” areas.

    http://www.weather.gov/

    Interesting that I have seen both tornado watches and warning areas coming as a result of Andrea. Hoping people from FL to VA are keeping themselves up-to-date.

            1. Maybe 1825 but that’s questionable. I looked quickly. The handful of Others did lose hurricane status before reaching us

              1. Vicki,

                Most, if not all, hurricanes this far North occur in August and September when the waters have had a chance to get to maximum temperature. 😀

                There may be a few exceptions, but generally this is the case.

                1. Right I was just curious to know if there had been. Also will be curious to see If warming ocean changes that in future…..if it warms enough

  10. Its interesting on satellite. Look to the northwest, north and northeast of the center. There is a nice fanning out of the high cloudiness. This thing is breathing quite well and has somehow worked into an environment with a lot less shear than the past few days.

  11. While I am not a fan of rain, we do need it. I don’t mind a 2-day event that brings a lot of rain as long as we’re dry after that for a nice long stretch. This doesn’t look likely given the shower threats next week. By the way, I was looking at some long-range forecasts and models which seem to suggest a prolonged period of 70s this month. It may continue right into July. Wouldn’t it be something if the only heatwave we have this year happened in late May. Sometimes these summer patterns get locked in, so this could occur. I’m OK with it, as my main beef with summer is HHH.

    1. I’m OK with HHH, however, my wife has ZERO tolerance to the heat
      and suffers severely in it. So for her, A summer of 70s would be fantastic!

  12. Ok find 2 days of rain i can deal with but what the pattern looks to be shaping up to be i don’t like one bit!!!! looks cool and wet. 🙁 after this storm system sunday looks to be okay but still cloudy with all of next week being unsettled. with clouds and cool temps

    1. Based on that track I think we are very lucky it is early in the season. This could have been a pretty good hit if this was August or September. But then again, I am just speculating since I am far from weather intelligent like the majority of the folks here. 🙂

  16. Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

    US Watch/Warning
    ——————————————————————————–
    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
    200 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

    …ANDREA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON…
    …TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…

    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…29.0N 83.6W
    ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
    ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES

      2. The 12z GFS finally got a clue … Its low track looks much more reasonable, as opposed to the past few days of OTS.

  18. I was surprised Andrea’s winds got up to 60 mph. It looks so disorganized and a lot of dry air got into the system.
    Big time rainorma for us up here.
    Thanks for those who have posted links so far.

  19. One thing to keep in mind about precip totals, all of the models will under do the totals. I would not be surprised to see 5-6 inch totals. NAM/GFS/EURO struggle with storms originating in the tropics.

    1. Yikes we could go from lower than average stream/rivers to overflowing. In the case of those who have had more rain (very eastern MA), would that mean a flood warning is likely?

      1. The local streams and rivers here are slightly high, the ten mile river is only a foot below its banks and going into mid June thats high also, if we get over 2 inches of rain around here flooding will begin in low lying areas

      2. Vicki, IF Eastern MA were to receive 6 inches of Rain, the Charles River would FLOOD!!! No question about it. On Sunday, River
        was Bank Full already.

        I’m hopeful that the heavy rain won’t materialize and that
        either the system weakens considerably before making it up
        this far North and/or it travels more to the East and it becomes
        a grazer or even OTS. 😀

        1. I have a feeling the sudbury which is about 5 inches now might even flood and it’s lower than average. But flood IIRC is around 11 feet. Oh boy. Trouble for people who have leaks in basements is possible.

  21. Oh Crap, Even the NAM is coming around to the other solutions.
    The 12Z run had it pretty unorganized up here with much lower precip, but
    now it still has it as a well defined closed low with copious precip.

    Waiting for run to advance to get a storm total, but at 36 hours, well over
    2 inches total for Eastern MA and over 3 inches total in Western sections.

    YIKES!

    1. I am wondering about fans who are going to the B’s game tomorrow. Looking like a bad night to be out.

    1. JJ are you familiar with the PGA grand slam of golf at port royal?

      Sorry for a non weather question.

      1. Hi Vicki…. It takes place in either October or November and it consists of the winners of the four majors during
        2013. Adam Scott is in that tournament with his win at the Masters.

        1. In Bermuda. Mac had heard of it but didnt think it was a big tournament. A friend was telling me about it today as if it was a huge deal. Maybe mac missed one. Thanks 🙂

            1. Currently here in CT the four southern counties are under a flash flood watch while the
              four northern counties are under a flood watch. The worst here is going to be mid afternoon
              tomorrow through tomorrow night. Rainfall will be between 2-4 inches here. There was no mention
              of river flooding here but more flooding for low lying areas and basement flooding.

          2. Speaking of big tournament’s can not wait for the U.S. Open next week at Merrian in Pennsylvania. From
            what I hear thick rough and narrow fairways. Tiger to me is still the favorite despite that horrible
            showing at Memorial Tournament last week.

            1. Mac cant wait either he’s planning the menu. I love the majors too. I think its for the tournament and not the food

  25. flood watch has been posted for all of massachusetts except cape cod and the islands.
    for 2-4 inches of rain with the heaviest to the west of i95

  26. I’m looking forward to tomorrow, watching the heavy rain approach.

    Dewpoints of 70F + from North Carolina, southward. When thats advected northward and forced to rise over the cool, damp air in New England, I’m thinking it should be an interesting late afternoon and evening of torrential rain bands.

      1. Hi Longshot.

        Aside from the lighter rain this morning, perhaps the core of the rain down in the mid-Atlantic could be here 5-11pm, 6-midnight, thats my guess …. about a 6 hr period of heavy rain late this afternoon, through the first half of the night.

    2. I’m kind of looking forward to it also. Don’t want damage but… It already feels more humid here

  28. Won’t matter too much where the system center goes. It’s a big blob of tropical moisture.

  29. Here’s a question that I’ve been pondering. Why is it that snow in the winter seems so hard to predict here past about 36 hours yet in the spring and summer months weeks at a time of cold, damp, raw, dreary wash outs can be forecast with seemingly unfailing accuracy? Just wondering………..

  30. Almost unnoticed is the formation of another Atlantic low (92L) though this one will have a tough time forming into anything. (Of course, that’s what I said about Andrea–LOL).

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. We cancelled for this weekend. 🙂 …….. Between now and Labor Day, we probably will be camping a total of about 5 weeks, so, it was an easy choice.

      1. I’m glad you have other opportunities although I’m sorry you had to cancel. I suspect camping in a deluge of rain wouldn’t be much fun – and might be worrisome if near any water.

  32. Wilmington NC and Cape Hatteras, NC have dewpoints of 74F and 73F, wow !! Think of all the moisture in that air thats being sent northward, lifted over air that can hold a lot less moisture.

    Well, thats one tropical system that, while never getting too strong, overexceeded the models strength expectations. I hope that isnt a preview of things to come.

  33. Looks like a very wet night time rush hour. Can’t possibly see a Red Sox game happening tonight. Not sure I would even travel into to see the Bruins, but I probably would.

    1. I do not understand this. why in football they play in the elements and the baseball players can not play in the rain? Doesn’t make since

  35. Raw and cold. Some pockets of heavier rain this morning. Would not be surprised to see 4+ inch marks in certain location in eastern mass by tomorrow morning

  37. I know this will lose its tropical characteristics by the time it gets here, but will we have some stronger wind gusts since the center appears it will cross right over eastern MA?

  38. Storm seems to be moving along at maybe 30 mph. Storm winds at 45 mph. Of course we will be on the wet side , not the wind side — I’m beginning to wonder if 4+” is possible. I think I saw one TV met with 3.5″ on the screen for Worcester area.

  39. Nowcasting the radar, there’s a heavy area of rain pushing through northern North Carolina, into Virginia and Maryland, but the center itself has a decent coverage of rain on its western flank with scattered convection to its east……

    Perhaps 2 batches of heavy precip to come overnight …….

  40. The biggest question is how long before people on here start talking about drought and fire danger, I say before July 🙂

    1. It make take until the middle of July since this unsettled weather pattern doesn’t seem to have an end in sight. The pattern continues with intermittent weak, brief ridges followed by more wet weather for the forseeable future.

  41. With the projected path moving more west than a day or 2 ago, we may miss out on the really heavy rains and get a more showery gusty rain being closer to the center of low pressure. Just a hunch.

  42. 55 temp with 55 dp. There’s been a nice gentle rain this morning. So far we have .18 Great for the lawns and flowers!

      1. We have solid blue sky and bright sunshine right now —- just arrived. I think it’ll be your way in 5-10 minutes 😉

          1. He he he, ha ha ha……

            Hey Arod, when did you return?
            I though you only appeared during snow events?

            Seriously, nice to see you peeking in now and than.
            😀

  43. This storm is really moving. I think tomorrow will be a nicer day than most believe. At least partly sunny skies by late morning and for the remainder of the weekend.

    3. I have that same sense too. Will be very nice if it turns out that way. And hi Arod – welcome back 🙂

  44. 12Z NAM total rainfall:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013060712&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048

    12Z GFS total Rainfall:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013060712&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048

    Notes: GFS down considerably from earlier runs.

    Looks like Eastern MA is in for ONLY 2-2.5 inches or so.

    No big deal IMHO.

    We shall see if there are any surprises which certainly would not be unheard of around these parts. 😀

    1. SPC still has a tornado watch up as far as SE Virginia.
      I’d be VERY surprised to see it extended any farther to the North.

  45. It appears unsettled weather returns early next week then more rain for next weekend? UGH! 🙁

    I guess TK’s prediction for the drought continuing into June will be his first “bust” since he started this blog. 😉

    IIRC we had lousy weather last June as well…not to mention the western MA tornado on June 1, 2011.

    1. We better not have this weather next June! Im getting married one year from yesterday 🙂

        2. Hahaha, true. She has me on that website and every time I log on it gives the countdown. Only reason I noticed it was year from now is bc we are getting married on D-Day, which was yesterday I believe

          1. no no no — your reply was supposed to be “I am counting because I can’t wait”

            Oh dear, I hope mother nature isn’t reading the blog today. You would only have yourself to blame 😆

            1. LOL, i think i have to worry about my fiance reading this more than mother nature 🙂

      1. Yet, it’s nearly impossible to predict weather patterns weeks/months in advance in all fairness to TK.

      1. Yup but notice the wall of water ends already in southern NJ then it’s just scattered convection. It’s a quick hitter and rapid moving.

  47. Check out some of these dewpoints in SE Virginia …..

    Norfolk, 73F ….. Virginia Beach, 75F ….. Williamsburg and Langley, 77F ….. Franklin, 79F. No wonder the tornado watch, and my guess is as heavy as the precip is south of NYC, it may intensify more as this tropical air is lifted over our regions 50s for temps and dewpoints.

    It will be fun to see how warm and tropical Nantucket and maybe the outer Cape get tonight. They may briefly get into those dewpoints listed above.

          1. that would have been great for a hockey game in the old Boston Garden. Anyone remember the Bruins and Edmonton Oilers skating in circles to try to disperse the fog in the 1988 Stanley Cup Finals ?

            1. I vaguely remember that.

              I think the new garden is much better
              equipped to deal with that situation. 😀

  48. precip spreading more north due to counterclockwise flow around center of circulation; however, the center of circulation is moving more east than it is north, thus I think track is still on target to just clip southeast MA

          1. It’s barely north of eastnorth east at this point. I don’t see this tracking much further west than extremel SE MA. We’ll see 😀

  49. Hello everyone, at .88 so far, expecting between 2-3 inches total by Sat 9am, it appears that the turnpike lake off rt 1 will come up to about or slightly below flood stage, I talked to a dpw guy that was there and he said with 2 more inches of rain will bring it even with road and 3 inches will come over road, he also said that the lake will rise only 3 inches per 1 inch of rain, right now it’s 8-10 inches below road, the local river looks like it will be bank full with possibly minor flooding, I don’t think it will be a major flooding problem at least not around here, but will see, good day all

    2. Charlie and North also – how the commute into Boston (Museum of Science Area) from N Attleboro. Would be leaving in morning around 5:30 and leaving Boston around 3:15-3:30? Is there public transportation??

  50. We are up to .66 for the day. But .16 of that was in the past 30 minutes or so as rain is picking up a bit.

  51. I’m totally fine with not having the dryness right. Even though I think we eventually go that way, we’ll have less time to do it, therefore it will end up less severe than it might have been otherwise. At least I’m not alone. Matt Noyes had this month dry too. 🙂

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