Summer Battle

117 Comments

9:31AM

The battle will be on between a Great Lakes trough and a western Atlantic ridge for several days. The ridge will eventually win out for much of southern New England, but enough of a battle from the trough will be given to result in a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms for several days. The thing is, there will be high variability in rain coverage. Widespread wet times will be few, scattered to isolated coverage will be much more common.

First, we have a wedge of cooler air that came southwestward last evening behind a disturbance and pseudo-back-door cold front. It has left low clouds and areas of fog in much of the region and it will take a while to burn that away today. During this time, a band of heavier clouds just to the south as indicating the position of a boundary between this cooler air and the return push of warm and humid air from the south. This boundary will be a focus for generation of some rain as we go through today and this evening, but there is some question as to exactly how much rain will generate and fall in the region. I’m banking on less than some have advertised. So today may feature more “bark” than “bite” in terms of clouds and rainfall. By later tonight, we will see a heavier band of rain and embedded thunderstorms move in from the west with a trough line swinging out from a low pressure center passing northwest of New England. The axis of this heavy rain should time through southern New England between midnight and mid morning Friday. The remainder of Friday may not feature all that much in the way of widespread rain, but we’ll still have to look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will be close to the coast or maybe just offshore, and along with a more established southerly flow of tropical air, showers and thunderstorms will be possible any time during the weekend, favoring Saturday over Sunday, but it’s quite possible that long rain-free periods will take place as well.

Retrogression (westward-movement) of the ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic will take place during the first half of next week, putting the region into hotter conditions, still humid, and still with a threat of showers and storms, but more isolated with time as the axis of most likely activity shifts to the west.

Tomorrow, a special 10-day forecast looking out through the entire first week of July.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog through the morning. Remaining mostly cloudy midday through afternoon however breaks of sun and isolated showers both possible. Highs in the 70s, upper 60s few coastal points. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of light rain possible in the evening, favoring southern NH. Widespread showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east mainly after midnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated to scattered passing showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-85 except 70s some coastal areas. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-70. Highs 75-85, coolest south-facing coastal areas.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Daily risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows 66-72. Highs 77-90, coolest south-facing coastal areas.

117 thoughts on “Summer Battle”

    1. We will. I’m going to gamble and give rough percentages for sun. Let’s see how close this ends up.

      TODAY: 10%
      FRIDAY: 40%
      SATURDAY: 50%
      SUNDAY: 60%

    1. I’ll be at York Beach – so I’m hoping for at least several hours of shower-free weather. I don’t even care if it’s not that sunny.

      1. No me either, just no rain. The pool is glowing and waiting for swimming. Rain or shine it will work out. Enjoy York.

    1. Lucky you. Enjoy.

      The fog bank has lifted but low clouds and East wind remain here.
      Pretty crappy day so far I must say.

      1. That clearing line is moving east a snail’s pace. Although sunshine with a disturbance coming through is not necessairly
        a good thing. The slight risk zone for severe storms is kissing the western boarder of CT.

        1. I’m going to be very surprised if he’s granted bail. I just saw that too John about the double homicide last July

  7. Does anyone know if it islikely to be raining during the morning commute tomorrow? Say around 7:30 am. I am wondering if the heavystuff will be done by then.

    1. It will be raining at that time but winding down. Most of the heavy rain occurs between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m.

  8. YUCK!!!!!!!!

    Just came back to the office. A very light drizzle falling. Downtown sky line
    draped in FOG! Low clouds “appear” to be lowering. Fog all of the City soon???
    What a PUTRID day. Ah just another crappy day in New England.
    What else is new?

  10. Judges do crazy things so it would not shock me if they granted bail. Now that he linked to another two homicides I have a hard time believing that a judge will let him go.

    1. Not to mention, the poor guy that he shot in the face in February.

      This guy is a bad dude scum bag!

      1. The discussions from the SPC prior to the watch were indicating damaging wind gusts and not tornadoes. That is
        why I was surprise the tornado watch was issued. I expected a severe thunderstorm watch not a tornado watch.

        1. Oh, I understand what you are saying. I wonder if
          latest soundings or other late guidance made them change
          their thinking? Something happened.

          I don’t think they take tornado watches lightly.

          1. There had to be something showing up in the data that showed an isolated tornado threat.
            So far I have not seen any tornado warnings. The watch is up until 10pm

  13. Pure speculation, but this guy could end up consecutive sentences. Sometimes people just don’t know when they have it all.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    The following is from Mt. Holly, NJ re: tornado watch in mid-atlantic – not here.

    STILL AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
    TONIGHT.

    THERE IS ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL…ESPECIALLY IMO..NEAR AND N
    OF RTE 80 AND MAYBE E PA WHERE BETTER 0-3KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED. ITS
    A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO SHEAR NOT BEING EXCESSIVELY STRONG BUT
    LOWER LCLS AND THE BOUNDARY DO OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY.

    OTRW…FURTHER S IN WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW…03Z/27 SREF PWAT BUILDS
    TO 2 INCHES BY 00Z/28 IN SE PA…DELMARVA AND SNJ AND GULLY WASHING
    RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL FF AND OR ISOLATED WET MICROBURST G45KT.

    FFA ENDED SOONER PER END PRIMARY LIFT LATE TONIGHT.

    TODAYS COSPA DID GOOD TO PICK UP ON DE CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE MAIN
    EVENING SHOW.

  15. BZ put a rainfall map showing Boston getting 0.24″ thru Sunday while New Bedford might get 4.0″

    1. Just off a model, trying to forecast convection. Those are not very good maps to plan by.

  16. How are we looking for Friday night? There’s the big annual dance party in the streets of Cambridge. Hope it’s not rained out!!

        1. It’s really just in central. On mass ave in front of city hall. Thousands turn out. It’s incredibly fun! My favorite community event of the year!

  17. Agree with arod, and most things won’t be rained out. The entire several day event will underperform, and it’s also in the timing. Heaviest rain from this spell will be overnight and first thing Friday in eastern MA and nearby areas.

    My fireworks display in Somerville MA tonight is a GO.

    30 minute show at Trum Field on Broadway at 9:15PM. 🙂

    1. You should end up with some nice periods of tropical weather in between showers/storms Friday-Sunday. Not the best, but not a wash out.

        1. Thanks! I’m there just Saturday for about half the day. Have a good time as well. 🙂

          NAM is trending drier with precip. totals and coverage.

          3. Very wise. Great area. We have stayed at Stage Neck Inn several times and love the area. Lots to do – or not do – depending on your mood!!

    3. Been there a few times, nice place but just a little to quiet for our liking, we tried to get a decent meal at 10pm when we arrived and basically everything was closed by then, hope u have fun

    4. Enjoy North and TK ! Been to Old Orchard some, but as kids, we made tons of trips to short sands in York, ME. Love coastal Maine !

  21. The tropical humidity is back, dewpoint is reporting 72F in Marshfield and we currently have a heavy thunderstorm.

  22. Storm Prediction Center once again has a good chunk of SNE in the slight risk for severe weather. I think it should be trimmed back to the interior.
    TK and North have fun!

    1. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

      From NWS at Taunton:

      MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK LATER ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HI-RES WRF AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
      THIS FEATURE. IF THIS DOES PLAY OUT BELIEVE THE REGION THAT HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND WEST.

      Looking at this satellie image, Sunshine looks to develop later.

      Could get interesting later. We shall see. Forecasts have been busting all over the place. 😀

        1. At 10AM Boston CLEARLY into the warm/humid air:

          Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
          (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

          Last Updated: Jun 28 2013, 9:54 am EDT
          Fri, 28 Jun 2013 09:54:00 -0400
          Weather: Overcast
          Temperature: 71.0 °F (21.7 °C)
          Dewpoint: 70.0 °F (21.1 °C)
          Relative Humidity: 96 %
          Wind: South at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
          Visibility: 10.00 miles
          MSL Pressure: 1001.0 mb
          Altimeter: 29.56 in Hg

          All we need now is the sunshine. 😀

          Btw, BIG flooding rains last night lasted an hour tops. 😀

  23. Well the sun is starting to come out where I am in CT. Now the question is how much does the atmosphere destablize. So far we been placed in the slight risk for severe weather multiple times this week.

    1. JJ in and around you area, you’ll probably get something or something close to you. In Boston, well the usual IFs hold. It certainly is HUMID enough and there is NO sea breeze, so IF we can get into some sunshine, even the City “could” see
      a Juicy if not severe thunderstorm.

      It’s a watching day yet again.

      BTW, not for nothing, but the SPC has the area in a 2% chance
      of TORNADOS. ALL of the talk of severe weather earlier this week
      had ZERO chance of tornadoes.

  24. In their discussion they don’t even mention the word tornado. When there is a 2% chance of tornado usually in the discussion you would see something like a brief tornado or two is possible.

  25. Back in 2010 when we had the tornado in Bridgeport, CT an EF 1 tornado that day the SPC had a 2% chance for tornadoes.
    As you said its not zero but it is an a very low chance.

  26. Line of showers/storms continuing to develop out around Springfield shows up well
    on this satellite image:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20130628&endTime=-1&duration=0

    and on radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Also looks like Tom is going to get hit again. 😀

      1. now that is really funny — I started to post there was a blue sky arising……and was humming CCRs’ bad moon arising song. Guess we are both in a musical mood although yours was more appropriate!!

  33. Waiting to see the next update from the SPC around 12:30 today and see if there are any changes to the slight risk and the probablities for wind, hail, and tornadoes.

  34. Too much cloud debris. Potential for severe limited will be limited to western new england. In our viewing area, the greatest risk is for slow moving soakers from all that moisture in the air. If you’re looking for severe weather in eastern new england, it isn’t in the cards.

  35. …………and we are back to some interesting cumulus clouds with blue sky between. Looks as if it will be in and out. Temp 77.4 with a 72 dp

  36. There sure is a dewpoint front out in western MA, where to the west of it, dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s and east of it, I’m sure everyone is feeling these low 70 dewpoints. Everytime I get out of the AC in my car, my glasses fog up to the point of being useless. 🙂

  37. A line of showers and embedded thundershowers that OS has alluded to has pretty much remained parked over CT and west/central MA. The eastward progression is extremely slow. Hence, those slow moving soakers I was describing earlier. If you get hit with a thundershower this afternoon, they could last a very long time in some areas.

  40. Hello all!
    I haven’t been posting much on here, gotten a bit lazy as my summer vacation drags on. Anyways thank you for all the birthday wishes!

    The sun has come out in my area, which may lead to some good boomers later today, especially with the high dew points.

  41. That line of showers/t-showers has broken apart likely due to the stong southerly jet coupled with debris clouds that coated the sky in eastern MA. Once again, no severe weather appears likely.

    1. I’ll go with my theory………….Framingham is in a no storm zone—-or Under the Dome. Not sure what I did to tick Mom Nature off but I’m working on fixing that.

      1. LOL. Most of southern new england east of the berkshires must be under the dome because nothing has been cooking.

        1. Sorry should have clarified. I was referring to the past several days when they were to my north, south, east and west 😉

  42. Normally when low lying southern New England has a hot day, the top of Mt. Washington, at 6,288 ft runs about 55F to say 60F or 62F.

    You may have heard about the record heat wave developing in the western US. Death Valley is forecast to be around 130F this weekend, with a shot at topping its all time record of 134F …..

    Well, in northern Arizona, at about 7,000 ft is Flagstaff, AZ ….. Current temp : 91F !!!

  43. Talk about class, The New England Patriots will exchange any Hernandez jersey for another one of your choice on July 6th-7th 🙂

    1. …And she won in spite of getting the Final Question wrong AND finishing the regular Jeopardy in 3rd place! That doesn’t usually happen with those two combos. 😉

      I like it when our locals win on national game shows! 😀

        1. She really has the answer – just didnt get it all written. We figured she earned it. And it is fun to see locals win. It was a huge twist and fun to watch

              1. I have been watching Jeopardy since Alex made his debut in 1984. I rarely, if ever watched the old with Art Flemming. I was on the young side anyway back then. 😉

  46. Am i reading it correctly that ocean temps already are at 70 degrees just south of RI and 65 degrees off Boston harbor?

    1. These temps are more normal for mid Aug at there warmest, I can see Boston harbor ocean temp being in the low and mid 70’s in mid Aug.

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