What Do Breezer, Blazer, and One Liner Have In Common?

182 Comments

5:17PM

Breezer, Blazer, One Liner: All things that describe the last 3 days of the hot spell. Read on.

Breezer: A hot day for sure today across much of the region, but again a sea breeze developed along the MA East Coast and has progressed inland into the I-95 belt including Boston’s Metro West. This is more of a sea breeze than I had been expecting, and was likely enhanced by an outflow boundary left behind by a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Maine late last night – recall something like this happened last week too. Also, the disturbance that I thought might kick of storms southwest of  Boston is a no-show. However, some pop up storms did get going in the heat in south central and southeastern NH this afternoon, including a severe cell. This activity may briefly try to survive as it encounters lift near the sea breeze boundary in the 495 belt in the last hour of the afternoon to very early evening, but as the sun sinks, this activity should disappear. The ocean air that came into the region is already warming due to the hot land so not a whole lot of additional relief is to be had. In fact, a developing southwest wind later this evening may make it feel a little warmer to hotter in areas that had cooled down, as the dew point will come back up in these areas after having been knocked down along with the temperature from the sea breeze.

Blazer: Friday will be the hottest day of this stretch as a west southwest wind gets cranking. The plus of the wind will be that it will provide ventilation, but it will drive the heat right to the beaches that had enjoyed several days of relieving sea breezes. The only spot that will see a little modification will be where a west southwest wind comes off water (portions of the South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands). Despite the heat, the lack of instability Friday will limit the thunderstorm threat, with only a minimal risk of an isolated pop-up storm.

One Liner: The heat is going to break as a cold front crosses the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. The timing of this front is critical, as the air will be unstable and it will still be hot. This is a classic setup for a squall line of thunderstorms to form in NH/VT/NY and then move east southeast across MA/CT/RI. There is severe storm potential, with the main threat being damaging straight line wind and potential microbursts. This may all occur in one line of storms, which at least eliminates the need for tracking multiple lines and clusters of storms. A single squall line does not mean that everybody will see severe weather either. We will have to see how the line sets up and moves, and its timing. If it occurs too early, before we have maxed out our heating for the day, it wouldn’t have as much time to grow to full potential. If it waited until much later in the evening, it would be arriving after the heat had started to ease and may also be a little weaker. Somewhere in the middle, and we’re talking a more potent line. This will be watched closely.

After that, a “refresher” course: A new air mass, much more comfortable, will be in place for Sunday and the start of next week! Enjoy that before humidity tries to make a come back by the middle of next week (probably without the extreme heat though).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH SUNSET: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms southern NH and northeastern MA may produce a few brief downpours. Temperature from near 80 MA Coast to near 90 further inland. Wind varying from a weakening sea breeze eastern areas, variable 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Stuffy. Lows upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable to WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm. Sultry. Highs in the 90s, potentially about 100 in a few locations, and may hold in the middle to upper 80s some areas of the South Coast, Cape, & Islands. Wind WSW to SW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Muggy. Lows 70-80, warmest in urban centers. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine through early afternoon. A line of thunderstorms expected from west northwest to east southeast (first in NH and northern MA, later in RI and southeastern MA) sometime during the mid afternoon through early evening hours. Potential for strong to severe storms with damaging wind. Very humid. Highs 85-95, hottest interior eastern MA, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, becoming variable and potentially strong and gusty near thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms ending, lastly over Cape Cod and the Islands. Partly cloudy. Lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 76.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

182 thoughts on “What Do Breezer, Blazer, and One Liner Have In Common?”

  1. Thanks TK – Harvey has the humidity returning later next week as well…UGH!!!

    I just wish that we could start having more comfortable days than humid ones but I guess that will not be in the cards the remainder of the summer, TK? 🙁

    Once again…UGH!

    2. We will have at least 2 and possibly 3 low humidity days starting Sunday. Also for about half of this hot stretch, the dew points have been in the middle to upper 60s versus the 70s, so it has not been as oppressive as we have seen in many a heatwave before.

        1. We shall see. Starting to zero-in on timing for Saturday. I think the game is impacted but not for long.

  2. Thanks TK. I like the temps for next week. Sadly not an ounce of breeze here today. Harvey thought maybe break the record of 98 tomorrow.

  4. Tk I thought Harvey showed a so so day on Tuesday but yours looks better. Could you explain please.

    1. And, now I see some veering of the winds, most noticable from surface up to 850MB. Hmmm

  6. TK we are waiting to see how the sat event turns out. The concern is being in a house on stilts if there is a sever wind event. Do you have any sense of timing for south shore and whether it will diminish by the time it reaches the coast. Thank you very much

    1. The house on stilts should be ok because air is able to pass under, over, and around it. Less resistance.

  7. Just back from the beach and reading the posts. Saturday still looks interesting with the threat of severe weather. The timing of front will be the key and if it comes through during peak heating it could get loud around here. The GFS has been very consistent with the Lift Index Values.
    Here is my breakdown risk and this may change especially with regard to wind
    Hail – Low Risk
    Wind – Elevated Risk
    Tornado – Low Risk

    1. I appreciate your hard work along with oldsalty on keeping us informed. I do hope the outcome for everyone everywhere is low impact. Again thank you both.

      1. I’m hoping the game is without weather and the sox win. Catch a ball for your boy :). And enjoy Hampton.

        1. Thanks Vicki. We are close enough on left field louge seats that he very well may catch one. Enjoy your visit down here.

    1. No problem. He was so excited when I gave him the tickets tonight. After that Hampton beach till Tuesday.

  9. Tk can you give me a general idea what i can expect in Dc from this saturday through next sunday
    going to Dc for family trip
    hope everyone is doing okay with this heat. though this heat wave even though they said it was gonna be bad has not been as bad as the last one,as far as im concerned

    1. I would not be surprised to see if that is upgraded to moderate risk especially if it looks like a widespread severe weather
      outbreak will happen.

    2. I like the term sultry. Remind me of Mae West…although that was my parents era so I have no idea why that popped into my mind 🙂

  15. Well,, sunrise is now 5:27am and sunset is 8:16pm, daylight is 40 min’s shorter than 3 weeks ago already.

  16. Jerk 😛 let the people that like summer heat enjoy it. your time will come , heck i like the heat and sun but not the humidity. could do 95 dry heat than a humid 85. but once the summer weather leaves. i want winter weather.

  17. Tk those are mammatus clouds right? The picture you posted? If so, I though they only occur if there is a severe thunderstorm nearby.
    In another note it seems like northern new england got more severe weather this season than soutern new england. I am planing on chasing some storms on saturday if they are good enough :p

    1. I agree with your thought on the northern storms. But I do remember one storm this year on a Monday night that was the most intense I have seen here in Pembroke. It was during the bruins Stanley cup.

    2. They often occur on the underside of the anvil of a severe storm, but they can be associated with non-severe storms as well.

      And yes that is exactly what they are.

  18. Matt… I think DC gets in on t-storms late Saturday through Sunday, some possibly strong. Front hangs around there with scattered showers/storms Monday but probably not too many. Front re-activates with showers later Tuesday then episodes of scattered showers/storms again Wednesday-Friday with a trough swinging through. May dry out for the weekend. No big heat, pretty seasonable temperature-wise.

  19. As expected, Boston’s temp is going back up tonight.

    76 to 81 between 9PM and 10PM.

    Meanwhile 92 in NYC at 10PM.

  20. I surrender. I will confess to nearly anything to just make. this. end. I feel like a slug and have found myself actually whining instead of speaking over the past few days. It is as if the Equators weather has moved to Florida, Florida has moved to North Carolina and North Carolina has moved to Massachusetts. I think that, along those lines; Massachusetts has moved to Canada…..maybe I should move there?

    Yes, I know that it will end and that it is part of the four gorgeous seasons that we are able to enjoy in New England but, enough is enough. When it is dangerous to breathe that is where I draw the line.

    Now I am off to hunt down the posts from the blizzard and will try and bring a little “frosty” my way.

  21. Today may well produce 100 degrees for some communities. The record for today in Boston is 98.

    I think an Excessive Heat Warning was issued by NWS for a lot of eastern MA.

      1. Worse than that. Look at day 3. Nothing either.

        I think part of the problem, and arod CORRECTLY alluded to it yesterday. The front isn’t that strong. In other words, it’s heating up behind the front and it’s losing it’s punch? I dunno, perhaps.

        OR SPC thinks there will be much debris cloudiness tomorrow
        such that NOT enough heating and destabilization of the atmosphere to take place, thus no severe.

        Lifted indices still look to favor severe????

        I just don’t understand how it goes totally poof????????

        TK???????????

  23. Great title TK !!

    Well, I shall stop trying to ponder 100F days 🙂 I think after I posted yesterday, the temp went down the rest of the day at Logan ! Oh well.

    Got very cold last night here. Temp/Dew point around 11pm was 57F/43F and I’m guessing under the clear skies and light winds, it radiated pretty close to the dewpoint.

    Rain later today, then supposed to be a Cape Breton scorcher tomorrow at 31C (88F).

      1. Indeed ! But, I think we have a 2-3 yr goal of a trip further north and east, Newfoundland. 🙂

        1. 😀 😀 😀

          Best bring your Winter gear with you. That’s the Arctic as far as I’m concerned. 😀

  25. 80 Degrees at 6AM for Boston’s Logan Airport.

    I could notice the heat all night like I haven’t for all of the other hot days.

    That’s quite a launching point for a run at the record. We shall see.

  26. This blog is messed up. I logged off and logged back on, made a new post and
    it still appeared higher up…..:D 😀 😀

  27. From NWS, Upton NY this morning:

    THE SECOND THREAT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THREAT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS ROBUST AS IT HAS PREVIOUSLY…

    Also:

    …PLUS WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
    CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT

  29. Hey all,
    My wife came up with a good one for today.

    HAPPY FRYDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    😀 😀 😀

  30. Just got back from a 4 mile walk and the air is very “heavy.” The Extreme Heat Warning from NWS is surely on the money. I think I saw/read somewhere that it will feel like 105 today. There should be at least one location that sees triple digits.

  31. Posting is getting way out of order. My 7:31 am post shows up before OS’s 6:34 am post. And this post itself will probably end up somewhere … where it shouldn’t.

  33. Thanks, TK.

    Husband is home and is better. I will be very glad to see this heat wave end. But it is summer and in summer we get heat waves. One thing I noticed w/this heat wave is lack of haze which TK explained in an earlier post. Today looks more like there will be more haze.

    As far as tomorrow is concerned, I am almost positive that at least a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued. And I have noticed, especially in the past few yrs., that even w/less heat and humidity, there have been tornado warnings as the equipment of today is very advanced and can see any rotation. I am hoping that we all just get a non-severe thunderstorm to clear the air – but frankly, I can’t see how we can’t get some severe storms. I read the NWS discussion earlier and they, if I remember correctly, are mainly talking about strong winds – which can be bad, too.

  35. 8AM Boston (Logan) Obs exactly as it was yesterday at 8AM

    Temp 85, Dew point 72, Heat Index 91

    We’re on our way. Record High today? We shall see. 😀

  36. According to Barry this morning, August looks below normal temps out of the 90’s for the most part. I certainly hope his outlook verifies to say the least. 🙂

    TK – Do you agree with your good friend Barry on this?…I hope. 😀

    Also to note – much of the SE USA have temps “only” in the upper 80’s vs. our 100 temps. I have come to the conclusion that our summer 2013 is clearly OUT OF WHACK…in spite of 1983. After all – 90’s in Alaska???

    1. Philip I talked to my sister in law in Atlanta yesterday and she said our heat has been far worse than hers. She suggested we move down there. Now that being said, she lives in Atlanta, and I doubt based that on facts/absolute temps and is used to the heat and as you know the south is also prepared for prolonged heat.

  38. I am surprised were out of the slight risk area tomorrow. Hopefully the threat won’t be as bad but I would still look out for strong to a locally severe thunderstorm across SNE.

      1. They will update the tomorrow’s outlook around 1:30pm. I would like to see what the other models say.
        GFS very consitent with the lift index values for several runs now which is tough to ignore.

        1. Indeed. I just don’t understand this at all.

          We shall see what they say.

          Curious to hear TK’s thoughts.

      2. So far I think the power of wishing is helping …..John and I are doing an exceptional job don’t ya think 😉

  39. Taunton, MA

    Lo0ok at some of these dew points!!!!!!

    (KTAN) 41.89N 71.02W

    Last Updated: Jul 19 2013, 8:52 am EDT
    Fri, 19 Jul 2013 08:52:00 -0400
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 85.0 °F (29.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 75.9 °F (24.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 75 %
    Heat Index: 94 F (34 C)
    Wind: Variable at 4.6 MPH (4 KT)
    Visibility: 7.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1012.2 mb
    Altimeter: 29.90 in Hg

    New Bedford Regional Airport, MA
    (KEWB) 41.69N 70.97W

    Last Updated: Jul 19 2013, 8:53 am EDT
    Fri, 19 Jul 2013 08:53:00 -0400
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 85.0 °F (29.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 75.9 °F (24.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 75 %
    Heat Index: 94 F (34 C)
    Wind: Southwest at 9.2 MPH (8 KT)
    Visibility: 9.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1012.3 mb
    Altimeter: 29.90 in Hg

    What’s going to happen when that soupy air is lifted tomorrow????????

    1. Boston 10AM Observation!!!!!!!!!!

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Last Updated: Jul 19 2013, 9:54 am EDT
      Fri, 19 Jul 2013 09:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Partly Cloudy
      Temperature: 91.0 °F (32.8 °C)
      Dewpoint: 71.1 °F (21.7 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 52 %
      Heat Index: 98 F (37 C)
      Wind: West at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1011.2 mb
      Altimeter: 29.86 in Hg

      1. If that wind stays West, it will get DANGEROUSLY HOT
        this afternoon and most certainly eclipse the century mark!

  41. HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!

    Look at this 12Z RAP Model Output for surface temperature this afternoon!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071913&time=INSTANT&var=TMP_sfc&hour=007

    Boston area at 40C. UMMM that equates to 104F !!!!!!!!!!!

    Now let’s see the same map for the NAM:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071912&time=INSTANT&var=TMP_sfc&hour=009

    Ok 35C which equates to 95. Hmmm A wee bit of a difference there!!!

    Same map for GFS, but ONLY at 18Z:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071906&time=INSTANT&var=TMP_sfc&hour=012

    35C or 95 again.

    I say the real temperature will be really close to 100.

    1. I was thinking yesterday would be the hottest day of the summer of 2013. Today MIGHT be warmer than today.
      The good news is relief is coming Sunday. Now trying to figure out the strength of the storms tomorrow.

      1. JJ you made a typo that is quite funny. 😀

        Today MIGHT be warmer than today.

        Yes, today WILL be warmer than yesterday. Certainly in coastal
        areas. 😀

          1. Me too, we ALL do.

            It just struck me as being particularly funny.
            Hope you didn’t mind. 😀

            1. yes we all do and it took me two times to read it to see what the typo was…..the brain sees what it wants doesn’t it?

    2. 2 Day History

      94.0 °F
      Last Updated: Jul 19 2013, 10:54 am EDT
      Fri, 19 Jul 2013 10:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Partly Cloudy
      Temperature: 94.0 °F (34.4 °C)
      Dewpoint: 71.1 °F (21.7 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 48 %
      Heat Index: 101 F (38 C)
      Wind: Southwest at 15.0 MPH (13 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1010.8 mb
      Altimeter: 29.85 in Hg

  42. Phew…….. 94 at 11AM

    Let’s see the hottest part of the day is what something like 3-4PM?

    Let’s just use 3PM. That’s 4 MORE hours of BLAZING sunshine!!!

    It went up 3 degrees from 10AM to 11AM.
    If it only goes up 1 degree per hour, that will bring us to the record. I have
    to believe that at least a few of those hours it will go up by 2 degrees.

    I think 100 is very very achievable today for Logan.

  44. 96F at noon, dewpoint 71F. I cant imagine how miserable it must be.

    I wont say what its like here.

    1. Hadi,

      I believe it is 104. Don’t think we’ll make that, however, excellent
      shot at 100 or a bit higher. 😀

  46. Looking at one I believe to be automated reporting stations on the wundermap site and a location at Inman Square in Cambridge keeps reporting 102 degrees (altho every so often it drops to 86…strange) and one in Winthrop is at 100.

  47. Tk, what r u thinking for tomorrow between 2-6pm, I see a line of severe storms coming through and a solid line also, do u concur and any additional?

    1. I expect a solid line of storms, but I am not sure it’s widespread severe for all. The greatest instability is going to support the biggest storms west and south of Boston, or on the southern part of the squall line in our area. Areas just north of Boston into southeastern NH may “luck out” and see less potent activity.

      I initially liked the 2-6 window but just pushing it back a touch to 3-7.

  48. Thanks for all the good wishes!

    Right now I am going to look through some of my books in the house and look for one that has a wintry scenerio! 🙂

  49. 94.4 – 74 dp – wind gusting comfortably out of the dreaded west to mid and high teens. Heat index 105.

    Loverly

    1. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 14m

      Boston Logan Int’l. Airport officially broke the record at 119 PM when the temperature reached 99 degrees. Previous record was 98 in 1982.

      1. Hey Coastal, where have you been? Nice to see you.

        2PM Logan Observation

        Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
        (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
        2 Day History

        99.0 °F
        Last Updated: Jul 19 2013, 1:54 pm EDT
        Fri, 19 Jul 2013 13:54:00 -0400
        Weather: Mostly Cloudy
        Temperature: 99.0 °F (37.2 °C)
        Dewpoint: 68.0 °F (20.0 °C)
        Relative Humidity: 37 %
        Heat Index: 105 F (41 C)
        Wind: from the West at 16.1 gusting to 28.8 MPH (14 gusting to 25 KT)
        Visibility: 10.00 miles
        MSL Pressure: 1008.5 mb
        Altimeter: 29.78 in Hg

  51. Patriots training camp 1 week from today at the Palace also know as Gillette 🙂 the company actually observes this holiday every year lol seriously though. I’m hearing around 15-20,000 spectators will be there so if your going go early, I’m 1st going to the Putnam house to meet some Patriots hopefully Mankins and Ridley 🙂

  52. I just looked quick but no change to the slight risk area for tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.
    The latest run of the GFS still has those Lift Index’s between -6 and -8 across SNE. Will see what happens tomorrow.

  53. I’d like to report that, compared to Boston, we have a crisp and comfy 94.5 deg in Framingham with a DP of 75 – and a lovely cool breeze

    1. Thanks for the report Vicki. Seems ur DP’s out there are a bit higher than in Boston. It probably feels the same for u as it does in Boston with its DP of ONLY 70, lol

      1. 🙂 I’m not sure it feels better or worse anywhere. Do you have a strong breeze in there? I am surprised that ours is as strong and consistent as it is.

  54. Regarding WBZ’s hints at a cool August. Didn’t post before because I was having trouble with my mobile access. All fixed now but of course I’m in front of my laptop. 😛

    I do not agree with their August forecast at this time. 🙂

  55. Those 4 posts that were stuck at the bottom have been hidden for now. Hopefully that will fix the issue. WordPress likes to play games like this once in a while.. 😛

      1. We all know what your favorite channel is john 😉 Im guessing its WBZ ch 4. Why do u ask charlie?

        1. harvey just tells it like it is ace. and actually polls show it as the most watched news station and in the number one slot.

          1. I do like Harvey, just not the rest of the station. I like the presentation of the news and weather better on other stations.

  58. Very active breeze out here. Easily gusting in the 25 MPH range at times. It’s taking the edge off the heat a little. Dewpoint is under 70 at Boston, which was expected if the wind was close to due west, which it is. Downloping heats the air but also dries it out a little.

      1. Global warming can be a patten no? I don’t interpret it as being all manmade. I can’t accept we have not Influenced the pattern however.

        1. It can be considered a pattern, and is, since regardless of what impact we have, there are already observed cycles of climate warming and cooling. So yes. You are correct. 🙂

  63. DiD Boston officially hit 100?

    I know for certain it hit 99 and broke the record, but I can’t find evidence
    that it hit the Century mark.

  65. Wind shifted a little more to the SW and they dropped to 97. Needed it to stay west.

    1. Like I said my truck said 100 driving home in Roxbury with windows down. Harvey said high was 99 for Boston. This brings a question is Logan the best spot for these readings. Im going with the 100 reading as I think outside of Logan it may have hit that in parts of the city. But 99 or 100 they said today would be the hottest and it certainly was. My a/c needs a break. With the heat my pool also needs to run 24/7 so its a double wami.

  68. TK any chance of it being cooler at the coast tomorrow before the front comes thru and even a sea breeze????

    1. Not if it’s east-facing. We’ll have a pretty fresh SW wind ahead of that front.

      1. East facing on ocean side but the river and marsh is on the west side so any breeze is usually a good thing and a stiff one is great!

  69. Temp at marshfield hills wundergroud station is 89 with a SW wind looks as if most temps in marshfield are in low 90s. Mac stopped to stock up at the local package store (soda only of course) and the person in front of him had just come from the cape and said it was breezy and much more comfortable.

  70. Oh look! The 18z GFS brings a tropical up the East Coast the first weekend of August. It must be hurricane season. 😛

    1. But of course it does since that has been the norm for two of the last three years we’ve been on vacation 🙂

      1. 16 days out! Like it has a chance to verify.

        Notice another just ready to exit the African continent?

  72. Check this out, especially dog lovers..

    https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/1000522_693548917337206_90875056_n.jpg

    When his Irish Wolfhound was diagnosed with cancer the little boy said “I want to be with him while he goes to heaven.” He patted him as his beloved dog went to sleep. Later, his parents wondered if he really understood and said, “It’s a shame dogs live a shorter life than we do.” The little boy said, “I know why…” His parents
    were surprised and asked him why. The little boy said, “Humans are born and need to learn how to be kind and good. Dogs know all that, so they can go to heaven sooner.”

      1. My wife found this. She loves dogs and still misses ours that
        we had to put down 8 years ago. How true, how true that story is.

    1. Saturday, July 20

      Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds in southern IN, northern KY, OH, WV, MD, northern VA, DE, PA, NJ, central and southern NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, and ME. TOR:CON – 2

      2. I would not be surprised if Pembroke gets it. The sky has that look and the wind has really picked up.

        1. For what it’s worth, the NWS at Taunton has REALLY
          backed off on Severe weather tomorrow for our area.

          Here is some wording:

          STRONGEST FORCING AND WIND FIELDS ARE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND…THEREFORE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS ACROSS THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD…MORE SCATTERED OR ISOLATED ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA.

              1. Even NWS out of Upton, NY has backed off on severe weather. I wonder if there will be a surprise
                tomorrow. It seems to me when there is not a lot of talk about bam we get it and when
                there is a lot of talk about the activity is less.
                Breakdown is still the same as yesterday
                Hail – Low Risk
                Wind – Elevated Risk
                Tornado – Low Risk

                1. Wouldn’t surprise me if action is wilder than expected. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we get just a few snap, crackle and pops. 😀

  74. Had to play HVAC man at work today, just before quitting.

    AC quit around 4:30PM. Called the facilities guy at home, (of course when no facilities staff), who ya gonna call? IT, of course!
    At 4:40PM, I found myself up on the roof turning off the huge AC unit,
    waiting 5 minutes and turning it back on. It worked and cooling was restored. 😀

  75. About that time when the lows come off the African coast and those Cape Verde style sub-tropicals develop. I guess I can see one coming in the next couple weeks. I hate hurricanes. I have lived through blizzards, one tornado and lost my entire home to the Northridge earthquake and I still hate hurricanes more than all of it.

  76. OS I’m glad the threat is diminishing. Do you know if its diminished for central NH too? Thank you.

    1. No, not diminished for Central NH. In fact Central Nh may get in on the action
      tonight. 😀

  77. I would not be surprised if there is an adjustment made in the slight risk area to include more parts of SNE.
    Plenty of CAPE for strong to locally severe storms. The winds will be the big ticket item with these storms which is why I am going elevated risk for that. If it looks to be a more widespread wind event I go significant but I don’t see the need at this time. The hail and tornado threat look to be low.

  78. Going to back off a touch on the severe threat for eastern MA and southern NH.

    Plenty of CAPE, but lacking forcing. The forcing is going to be mostly SW of Boston.

    Updating now.

  79. Laconia area may be in for another incredible lightning show – 2nd time this week.

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