What’s The Weather Gonna Be? (The Week Ahead, Belated Edition)

133 Comments

3:34PM

Plain and simple, a week of changing weather. Not that abnormal for New England anyway. No heat waves, no super dry air, kind of everything in between, driven by these systems with these expected results.

Tonight/Tuesday: Warm front and wave of low pressure traverse the region with the return of clouds and eventually showers and possible thunderstorms. Some areas may be visited by heavy downpours.

Wednesday: Cold front slogs eastward through the region and finally gets offshore during the day, but with some heating and humidity around and lift with the front, we could see a round or 2 of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sliver of high pressure brings slightly drier, mild air – a nice day.

Friday: Warm front tracks through the region but probably with only variable clouds and a slight risk of passing showers.

Weekend: Low pressure trough approaches from the west but battles a weak ridge over our area. This probably means a warmer, humid, but mostly rain-free day on Saturday, and a mild and muggy day that turns showery Sunday. Long way off – plenty of time to fine-tine.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mostly after midnight. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. More numerous showers and possible thunderstorms with some downpours possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers decreasing in frequency. Humid. Lows in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially morning through early afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

133 thoughts on “What’s The Weather Gonna Be? (The Week Ahead, Belated Edition)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    So, what do you think of the NWS hinting at possible severe weather for the weekend?
    A bit pre-mature no? 😀

  3. The Royal Baby was born at 4:24 pm London Time…8 lbs. 😀

    My mother figured all along it was boy due the fact that it was taking so long to be born. I was late myself, I was supposed to have been born on Thanksgiving but I came into the world on the following Tuesday, 5 days later.

    Vicki & others – Are boys more likely to be born past their due dates than girls?

    2. I had my first two boy and girl on their due dates. Third was induced for minor complications so was two days before due date

      Today is my oldests 33 birthday and she believes its her bday month and a day for royalty. There will be no living with her now 😆

      I’m hoping for James for a name. Wanted Victoria but don’t think that will work

  4. Looking at Radars to our West and Southwest, one wonders how we could not
    get pummeled by tons of rain. However, reading the latest discussion from the
    Taunton office of the NWS, it looks like Eastern sections “may” escape the brunt of
    the rain.

    We shall see. I’ll be watching radars later tonight. I guess I really won’t know until
    tomorrow AM. 😀

  5. Thanks TK.
    Still looking at non severe storms over the next 24 hours.
    Threat Level Index
    Flooding – Low but could be upgraded to elevated should there be training of storms.
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Extremely Low
    Tornado – Extremely Low

  6. It’s kind if nice having the tues of vacation at the beach rainy. We’ve already had rnough sun so can spend the day exploring and not feel guilty about being on the beach

  7. Hi All-

    Long time no write. I hope you are all well and your summer has been enjoyable.

    On July 1st we sold our house in eastern MA and moved full-time to our place in the CT River Valley of Massachusetts. That day was also noteworthy because it marked the start of my first day as not being employed as a forecaster in 20 years.

    The weather services company I worked for was bought in late 2011. I worked full-time for Weather Central, responsible for all of their northeast private client group and its forecast needs, beyond that I provided forecast support as needed to its broadcast clients in NYC, Philadelphia, New York State, Springfield, Hartford, and Providence. (Boston outlets are all WSI shops) Working for WSI was not something that appealed to me. There operation is very different than what I was used to and not something I wanted to do going forward. Different is not a bad thing, but just not the right choice for me. It was a tough transition, as I started my professional career in at Weather Central, then spent 12 years at the NWS and left a government job to move home and for an exciting opportunity working remotely for Weather Central, only to have it all gone in less than 4 years.

    I had been teaching 2 meteorology classes in Amherst and been part of the CASA radar project there for 4 years. I will further my work with the CASA team going forward, as I become a full-time contributor to an amazing team of professionals. Not just meteorologists, but electrical, computer, and mechanical engineers, computer programmers, and other technical staff. I am also going to be teaching classes under the 5 College consortium in meteorology and atmospheric science. All basic introductory type classes, as none of the 5 schools offer meteorology or atmospheric science as a major.

    So for the first time in 20 years and for the first time in my professional life I will not be preparing forecasts on a daily basis. It was time, I am happy, content, and excited. I hope to still come by here with thoughts on the weather and forecast ideas, especially now that life has settled a little bit.

    All the best!

    1. Thank you very much for sharing with us. Changing and moving on is never easy and takes tremendous courage as well. I wish you the very best

    3. Thank you JMA. I wish you nothing but the best. Sounds like you will be happy.
      I certainly hope you still drop by. 😀

    5. Thank you for sharing your story with us. I can say that we have some similarities with regards to the way things have gone.

      I wish you the best and look forward to your posts here!

      1. Maybe Barry is on vacation. I think the permanent switch is Aug 19th with Todd to mornings and Barry and Joe to the weekends,

    1. Wxrisk.com the TECHNICAL name for this cloud is *Cumulonimbus calvus *

      Cumulonimbus calvus is a rapidly developing large tall CB cloud that will often continue to GROW and reach the more dangerous / impressive CB with an ANVIL stage (cumulonimbus incus ) or with the CB with fibrous blow off at the top of the cloud (cumulonimbus capillatus).

      Cumulonimbus calvus CAN bring in moderate to heavy rains ( most of the time NOT hail) and when it does then we can call the cloud Cumulonimbus calvus praecipitatio.

      Where is this? I think it is Denver, Co.

  12. Sorry I have not been on much, really busy with work
    and these boys that are exhausting 🙂

  14. I know its cooled off to the low 70s tonight and i really wanna keep the windows open in the house but the humidity is killing me, cant do it. Hate having to run the ac all the time but man its uncomfortable without it

  15. been an active day here in dc weather wise. had a few thunderstorms. its humid but cooler. tomorrow is suppose to warm back up again as the front moves north a bit but comes back down. having a blast down here. people complain about massachusetts drivers. how about north virgina and Dc drivers. lol my dad almost got in 3 accidents because of people not looking/paying attention to signs , also boston traffic is so much better than dc traffic.

    1. Agreed. NONE of the operational models have this becoming a tropical system.
      We shall see if anything develops.

    1. I can’t see as well on my phone but it looks as if the moisture is nearly out of here. Is more coming?? And do you know timing?

      1. Vicki,

        Perhaps you can see this radar loop better?

        http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

        Another round to go through and then it “looks” to be out of here. However, I just heard Joe Joyce on the radio on the way into the office and he said a STEADY rain developing.

        We’ll see. I don’t believe ANYTHING Joe Joyce says. Nothing.

        If all goes according to what I’ve seen, it will stop when the warm front moves through, only to be set up for possible
        afternoon convection.

        Frankly, I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen.

        Until then, I’ll watch radar trends.

        My Best guess, rain stops soon, but chances for more showers
        this PM. 😀

  18. Only one change to make to the threat level index I posted last night.
    Flooding now elevated instead of low
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Extremely Low
    Tornado – Extremely Low

    1. JJ, for Western sections, but certainly NOT for Eastern sections. It rained here
      for a bit, but not doing anything at the moment.

  19. Thanks OS I have macs phone set up as a hot spot since mine is grandfathered in for unlimited I hooked my iPad to it so I could see better. It’s raining but I always like a rainy day at the beach too.

    Is mts OS any better with the slightly cooler weather ?

    2. Hey Vcki, do you have Verizon? My wife is grandfathered in but I didn’t know we can use her phone as a hotspot because of that. I thought that was extra.

      2. AT&T but they won’t give you unlimited with a hot spot so they’d bump be out of the program. Or they used to. It’s the only time we use a hit spot so just as easy to use macs phone.

          1. No he got his phone after unlimited stopped being offered. I just go on line and change to the 5g hot spot for the month then change back when we get home

  21. Old Salty I should have said western sections. The sun is out to where I am in CT and that will destablize the atmosphere.
    Waiting to see if anything develops this afternoon.

  22. Not to change the subject, but does anyone here have an android smartphone? I just got one and it won’t allow me to “text” people my videos. It’s says “sorry, you cannot add this video to your message. Try a smaller video.” It’s driving me crazy. A smartphone should be able to text people videos and the video is only a 12 seconds. Ugh.

      1. How large is the video? Does the phone have some sort of setting for maximum size? if so, Perhaps that can be reset?

    2. I switched from an iphone to an android a year ago. Worst mistake i could have made. I have all sorts of issues with mine.

    3. Arod,

      Are you attempting to send it via a text message or an email?

      For messages, the following applies:

      The maximum message size (along with the attachments) is generally limited to 300KB (MMS 1.2), but recently the MMS 1.3 standard has allowed for a maximum size of 600KB.

      This is really small. Can you try sending your video via email on the phone instead? That will probably work aok.

      2. Thanks OS. Yes. I can email them but just can’t text them unless they are only 3 seconds long at most. I guess the solution is to just email them. Thanks for your help everyone!

    1. Interesting. When I looked and didn’t see slight, I didn’t bothering looking
      any deeper into it.

      Here is the wind:
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
      And the tornadoes:
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

      Please note: Last time the SPC did NOT have us in slight, but DID have us
      in 2% chance of tornadoes, there were several tornadoes in CT and a waterspout in MA along with a number of tornado warnings.

      Hmmm Interesting.

      THANKS JJ

        1. New Convection Firing already and with Thunder and lightning. (The confusion between lightening and lightning is due to their similar spelling and pronunciation. Just remember that to be quick like lightning, you need to lighten your load by leaving out the e.) 😀

      2. The only reason I clicked on it was because I saw see text over SNE.
        I am still thinking heavy rain is the main threat and if the storms train over the same area there will be an elevated flood
        threat. Wind still appears to be low threat but tornado threat I putting up to low threat. Hail remains extremely low.

  27. Updated threat level index
    Flooding – Elevated flash flood watch up for most of SNE and atmosphere loaded with moisture with all this humdity.
    Wind – Low
    Tornado – Low
    Hail – Extremely Low

  28. We have begun the trek home and have stopped in St. Martins, New Brunswick, a cute little town along the Fundy Shore.

    Continuous pouring rain this morning, but I stood in it and watched the Bay rise about 40ft to its current high tide. Simply unbelievable.

    The beach is not sandy, its rocky and its a tall, STEEP slope that from top to bottom drops you a height of a tall building. At low tide, the water is all the way down it and then a little beyond, at high tide, its to the top. It has to be seen to be believed, especially during these full moon tides.

    1. I believe today was an astronomical high tide, making it even more dramatic.
      I’ve seen many photos/videos but never live in person. Awesome. Safe trip home.

      1. Thanks OS. Yes, I guess they are astronomically high through Thursday and then start dropping off. We’re supposed to stay thru Thursday, unless this rain continues. If it does, we may start back sooner. But, thats ok, the weather the last 2+ weeks has been phenomenal !!

        See the storms are beginning to fire west of Boston and that the dewpoints are above 70F again. 🙁

  29. Thanks, TK.

    Got dark in Sudbury. Now we have some thunder w/heavy rain and winds approx. 20 mph. Storm came up fast. Sun was out brightly less than 1/2 hr. ago.

    1. I just saw the line on radar.

      Heavy clouds with some substantial sun breaks here. It more comfy when sun is not out. It’s 76 with a DP of 176. South wind makes it more comfortable but not as cool as a east or west wind as both of those are over water

      1. Doppler radar is showing at this point heaviest rain just to the north of you. We are getting another downpour and a little wind – no thunder w/this cell.

        Nonetheless, hope you are enjoying your vacation! I am very jealous! 🙂

  31. Looks like another line forming to the west according to doppler radar.

    Feels like we are living in the tropics! Let’s all try to remember this nxt. winter when it is very cold and snowy – ‘though by now, some people might want that now. I don’t – not yet. If anything, looking forward to the crisp fall days. But summer tends to be short around here – so trying to enjoy watching the cloud formations, etc.

    1. Im in Westwood and we are getting pummeled over and over again. Storms seem to be training over the same area.

  33. Training storms over eastern MA. It’s funny. Wasn’t western MA to get the brunt while eastern MA was to get the least…Pete? 😀

  34. Quite warm and muggy down here in Plymouth. Amazing how quick it warms up once the sun comes out. I am heading to bring the hubby to the doctor’s to get the staples out of his ankle and have a new cast put on. This sure wasn’t in my plan for the summer. We are supposed to go to Canobie Lake Park the last week in August and I am not sure that will happen now. He better be all healed up in time for our trip to Disney in October.

    Hope everyone enjoys their day!

    1. Oh no. I hope you can go. I’m headed to Plymouth to a dentist my dentist recommended. I have a loose crown. Argh

  35. Was just out for lunch. Absolute deluge!! Pouring Torrents. MANY roads flooded.
    I went through one and just made it through. Some lightning and thunder.

    1. OS, just to think that there is more to come with the cold front later this afternoon. I don’t think this was anticipated by most last night for Eastern MA.

      1. Agreed. Another Biggie moving in quickly. Arod, you may get clipped by the Southern end of it, or you may just miss. Not sure where in Westwood you are located.

        BTW, with the previous one, NWS put out a marine warning that
        included possible water spouts.

        1. I’m Mainly joking, but 1/2 serious.

          You “may” get it in IF the course is playable and there
          is a break in the action. Too early to know for sure.

          Good luck.

  37. When I went out for lunch it was up to 83 in extreme mugginess. Coming back it was down to 75 in rain cooled air. 😀

    1. The minute i walked out of the building for lunch, my glasses fogged up to the point of having to take them off to see. Its THAT muggy out there, yuck

  38. Just returned from visiting my globe-trotting daughter, who is working at Yosemite. Very, very hot out there. Even at elevations of over 10,000 feet (where we hiked) it was in the 70s and 80s. Also, very dry, with real forest fire danger. We saw a few contained fires in the forests. Nothing earth-shattering about the warmth or heat. It’s been hotter in other years, the locals and park rangers told me. However, what is surprising is the extent of heat and warmth this summer. What I mean to say is that almost every area in the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing above to well-above normal temperatures. Whether it is Japan, Korea, England, France, most of the U.S., etc … the theme is consistent: lots of (overwhelming) heat. As many of you may know from previous posts, I’m not an alarmist and do not press the global warming button at the drop of a hat. This said, we’re headed for another record year in terms of global temperatures. That’s my hunch anyway.

    The past 4 weeks have been brutal for me weather-wise. I must say, having some dry heat (and yes, dry heat feels much better) for 3 days rejuvenated me. But, that rejuvenation was short-lived. Yesterday’s HHH combination was hard to bear (evening did cool off a bit, thankfully), and today is simply unbearable in terms of humidity. Thus far, the rain has done nothing to ease the situation. A 10-minute walk causes me to look like Kevin Youkilis. It’s embarrassing at work where people have asked “what happened to you?” To which I reply, “I went out for a bite to eat, and it’s just so humid and warm out there.” The prolonged spell of HHH is causing headaches, labored breathing when I walk or run, and aggravation, to the point where I’ve had enough. I apologize for the rant. But, as you all know, I’m ready for fall and winter and look forward to celebrating the first cool, crisp nights and the arrival of pumpkin spice latte’s.

      1. We get a break OS but then yet another line is forming across western and central MA. Sun is out now and fueling the atmosphere.

        1. Good. Wasn’t sure if you would get clipped or get a miss.
          We got that one, waiting on any more. 😀

          1. Oh no. I got nailed twice today with a severe thunderstorm. We were in the severe thunderstorm warning (central Norfolk county). The sun is out now but more storms are heading this way.

  41. We just had a brief heavy shower move through here. It might build going up 95 into Boston.

  42. From the Taunton office of NWS:

    DEEP-LAYER LIFT COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
    UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS…THUS THE
    THUNDERSTORM LIKELIHOOD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. HRRR MODELS THE PRESENT ACTIVITY AND ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES INTO EARLY EVENING WELL. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

  43. I am still waiting to see if anything comes through here where I am in CT. The sun has been out here since just before 9:30 this morning which has allowed the atmosphere to destablize.

      1. It looks like a line of showers and storms trying to form. I have not seen any warnings but some of those in the Hudson
        River Valley are strong thunderstorms.

  46. There strong thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and vivid lightning. The one near Poukipsee NY, is just short of severe criteria with 50 mph winds and half inch hail. Last check that is only moving at 15mph to the east which is not fast.

  48. That cell is north of where I am. I was thinking the one in Hudson River Valley would have been the one to get the warning being that it was close to severe criteria.

    1. This is what the NWS says:

      * AT 334 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
      THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DRACUT TO MAYNARD…AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

      60 mph? I mean that really could be, but seriously, I question that.

      😀

      1. “Capable of” is ok and good wording. It may not have been happening at the time of that warning/statement but the potential was quite high.

    1. It appears there weakening as they push into more stable air, I expect just leftover showers by the time it gets here

  54. Storms in central mass are weakening while storms to the north and southwest are strengthening.

  55. Sky dark up the coast. Very strong consistent west wind here.

    I like the idea of 50s at night.

  57. Looks to be breaking up as it approaches us. Temp just dropped from 86 to 71 in a blink. DP from 76 to 68. Mac is shivering as wind is still strong. No sign of T&L even on horizon.

  58. Golf cancelled. Wont let us on the course. Major heavy rains with a few rumbles of thunder in canton as that line is still making its way through. Standing water on the greens. Sky got DARK!

  59. Crazy day, non-weather. A job lay off in the family (don’t worry no big deal), my mom had her surgery, and after a double shift for me yesterday a crazy regular shift today. Rest of the week LOOKS quieter anyway but now I’m off to meet some visiting friends for dinner. 🙂

    Weather-wise. Some good storms. Not prolific lightning producers in most of eastern MA, but some big rain and decent wind. I took a 3 minute video from approaching roll cloud to start of downpour and wind in Woburn while out on medication-fetching errand for mom. 🙂 She’s doing WELL by the way. Outlook excellent!

    I’ll try to update this before I leave.

    1. My very best to your mom with wishes for a speedy recovery. How lucky she is to have a special son 🙂

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