The Week Ahead

86 Comments

7:51PM

A fairly quiet week is ahead. The “busiest” day is likely to be Monday as a cold front pushes through the region, keeping the air on the cooler side through Tuesday. A mid week warm up will take place as high pressure which builds across the Northeast Tuesday settles over and just south of the region Wednesday into Thursday. That, combined with upper level high pressure, still stave off any wet weather through late in the week and likely into the weekend. An approaching low pressure trough from the west may send some showers into the region by later in the weekend but there are no indications of widespread rain at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 65-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 40s except 50-55 urban areas and shorelines. Wind NW up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N up to 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 74.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 73.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 72.

86 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. September often has some of the nicest weather of the year, in a general sense. This week upcoming will be an example.

  3. Thanks TK…..yes sept weather is nice, but it doesn’t snow so not the nicest weather :).

    I had a conversation with my grandson tonight about why leaves fall and then return. He pointed out that between losing them and having them regrow that we have snow. Then he asked when it would snow and I said November maybe. He looked at me innocently and said Halloween is in October. This new generation will have no barometers to judge by 🙁

    1. Speaking of such things, the Wooly Bear Caterpillar is crawling about and predicting a very mild winter ahead.

      2. I’m not buying into any of those myths anymore. The winter will be decided by pattern only. No warm fall, acorns or whatever just pattern. Just my thinking.

      3. Never believed that stuff. Although another Halloween storm works for me. Three years running without power would be amazing 😆

        2. Actually just kidding about not believing. I think you are amazing TK but mom nature and the earth just has thousands of years more experience. Maybe not wooly caterpillars and acorns, but I think she’s screaming right now and no one wants to listen 🙁

    1. Danielle on Ch. 5 is calling for showers Saturday afternoon then a general rainfall on Sunday. I certainly hope YOUR forecast verifies TK. I am working at a field hockey game on Sunday. 🙂

    2. I am in Camp Euro which is slower, holding a ridge along the East Coast into the weekend as a trough tries to run into it from the West but fails miserably.

  5. Despite some major events like the Colorado flooding, 2013 is turning out to be one of the quietest weather years in the US in a very long while.

    Virtually no tropical activity beyond the half way point of the season.

    Record low # of tornadoes.

    Severe weather reports WAY below normal.

    Less than normal winter storm impact nationwide for the 2012-2013 winter.

    The atmosphere is taking a breath…

    1. And as quiet as it is we still have have a major drought and devastating fires and extreme flooding in CO during one of its typically driest months, not to mention phoenix, and a well above normal snowstorm here in feb and the tornadoes in OK …me thinks those areas want a deeper breath 😀

    1. Good read thanks TK. Last two paragraphs are key. Especially second to last. As we know with bob discussion earlier, we are a spec in the world and not as bad here doesn’t mean not bad elsewhere

    1. I was watching this morning, longshot. It’s fascinating isn’t it. Took them a while to get it to budge. Thanks for the link.

  8. I was watching coverage of the CO flooding this morning and listened to the governor speak while barely containing his emotions. What a horrendous event. The flood field is now the size of the State of Connecticut. They said it is a thousand year event.

  9. Thanks TK! Perhaps this is the calm before the winter storms. I am so ready to log onto Woodshill and see blog updates with hundreds of comments. 🙂

      1. I can …… unless the colder side is in the Great Lakes Region and we are in the warm sector, with a cold frontal passage of showers. 🙂 Sorry JJ !

        1. Hi Tom… It looks like it will be a much better week for you and the students as were not going to have any
          big time heat this week. I know will get inside runners this winter but as I hope we get 2-3 good Noreaster’s.
          I don’t think we will see a snowstorm to the magnitude of the blizzard this winter.

          1. It has been much better in the building today !! …… As long as its during school vacation (I hope the atmosphere is aware of those dates 🙂 ), I could go for another NEMO, well with all dry snow, so there’s no power outages on the south shore.

  11. Snowing lightly in Labrador City (32F right now). Even for LC, that’s fairly early. Snowed lightly across a swath of Labrador and Central/Northern Quebec yesterday. This image below is from Schefferville, Quebec:

    http://www.metcam.navcanada.ca/dawc_images/wxcam/CYKL/CYKL_NW-full-e.jpeg

    Earlier start to wintry precipitation up there means nothing, as we know, about what winter will look like. But, there is no doubt that it is colder to our north than normal, and that has persisted since early August.

  12. TK, I too have noticed how tame the hurricane season has been. Almost non-existent. Tornadoes were also pretty much a non-factor in March and April, due to a persistent cold dome (therefore no clashing of fronts) during those months. But, we’ve definitely had some severe weather in 2013, including the flooding, prolonged drought in the west (which contributed to the Yosemite fires), blizzards, etc …

    1. Yes, there is certainly some significant weather. But as a whole 2013 is very quiet compared to the previous 2 years. There is always variability, extremes, regimes, patterns. The atmosphere is a great example of semi-organized chaos.

      Again I maintain we are not seeing more extreme weather than we ever have before. Example: How do you explain the dust bowl? Now that was more extreme than any drought since. There have been other smaller scale major events of great strength in the past too. Here’s a key difference: We now have cameras mounted EVERYWHERE and everybody is also walking/driving around with one in their possession. We don’t miss anything. We used to miss a lot.

  13. I have a funny feeling about the pattern and the position of that tropical system about a dozen days from now…

    2. Say it ain’t so. Saw the NAO forecast looking extremely negative later next week and we know what can happening those situations!

    1. No, it would be either Jerry or Karen and originate in the Gulf of Mexico, move NE, and make a trip across the FL Peninsula during the September 20-25 period.

          1. Thanks TK ! It has been interesting to watch the EURO’s 12z run the last 3 days now. If I recall correctly, GFS has it and sails it out to sea, what else is new.

              2. I can see it now, another left hand hook somewhere into the east coast. Gee, if that happens, FEMA will relocate the flood zone to Albany, NY.

                1. Yep! The NAO forecast can change and isn’t always accurate. We shall see. Going to Maine the weekend of the 27th. Hoping for no storm.

  15. I know several mets have talked about the second life, and that Humberto would not be of any concern to the mainland. Not sure if that is the one TK is referring to though.

  16. Tk you have a funny feeling about this tropical system? Now, is this going to be a hurricane or just a run of the mill rainstorm with a name?

    1. A bit early to know that, especially since most tropical systems that come up here are not run of the mill rainstorms. They all have their own characteristics but follow general rules of thumb for many of their parameters. And I am not calling for a hit from a tropical low right now. I’m saying that when that system develops and makes its way eventually across Florida, it may be in a position that puts New England in the line of fire.

      A lot has to come together.

      1. Whether it does or not, it’ll be fun to watch. That’s at least half the fun….not that bad storms are fun but u no what I mean

      2. I’m just trying to understand, if it crosses Florida and into the gulf how does it hit us? Excuse me, it’s been a very long day 🙂

          1. Awwww I wanted to answer that. There are so few questions I can answer and you two stole my thunder 🙂 😉 😆

              1. What wonderful news!!! I wanted to ask but was afraid it’d make you worry more. I have the biggest smile. And some happy tears too. Thanks for telling us 🙂

                1. Thanks! No worries about asking. Now that she can have solid food again, my Dad snuck her in some stuff yesterday :). Hospital food is not good there!

    2. Of course, then my curiosity sends me over to the Mt. Washington website and it says 22.8F. I have seen before that the hourly ob for Mt. Washington from the NWS and the ob on the Mt. Washington page dont always match. Oh well, its cold up there and whether its 19F or 22.8F, either one explains why its going to struggle to get much above 60F tomorrow.

  22. I think that the “entity” with potential to move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and then somewhere into the Atlantic Ocean is what the NHC is currently identifying as 95L, now in the NW Caribbean.

    The EURO continues it mystifying ways of largely ignoring it on its 0z runs, while featuring something on its 12z run. Looking forward to that later today. The GFS seems to be picking up on something a bit more each day.

    Ok …… Where’s the winter jacket ? 🙂

  23. I believe the record low was tied or broken I can’t remember. 45 degrees in boston early this morning I was wearing a sweatshirt and still cold.

  26. Record low was 45 and we had tied it but in the last half hour Boston dropped to 44, a new record. And it was 97 less than a week ago. You gotta love it :).

    1. Wow. The dog wanted to be out for an extended period this morning. It was chilly. Not ready for the cold mornings but love the beautiful afternoons.

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