So Close Yet So Fair

104 Comments

11:22PM

Upper level low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is part of a duo of weather systems keeping southeastern New England in a great weather pattern. The other part is a high pressure ridge to the west of New England. This ridge will eventually slide to the east and become completely dominant, but through Wednesday, the upper low will be almost a little too close for comfort. It will spin some moisture down across Maine and just offshore of NH and MA in the form of clouds and even some light rain. But I expect all the rain to stay offshore of NH and MA, with only some cloudiness coming down across the region mainly Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect great weather to continue, still a little on the cool side into mid week before a moderating trend gets underway. This pattern is good through the weekend. By the start of next week, we may need to worry a little about low pressure to the south of New England, which may move northward, putting an end to the long stretch of great weather. But that’s far away, and not a worry for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s inland valleys, 40s elsewhere. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy especially coastal NH and northeastern to east central MA with less clouds elsewhere. Lows in the 40s, few upper 30s inland valleys where sky remains clear. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 44. High 67.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 72.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 73.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 74.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 52. High 68.

104 thoughts on “So Close Yet So Fair”

  3. Hmmm

    0Z Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168

    0Z Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=144

    The Canadian depicts a 987mb system up here. IF totally tropical, here is what would be expected.

    Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge
    1(weak) 75–95 mph 980.0 mb 4.0–5.0 ft.

    If it is more extra-tropical, I’m not sure what the winds would be. Pretty strong for sure. System is strongest at our latitude, which makes me wonder if this system would be some sort of hybrid like Sandy????

    Is our Canadian on target here? Time will tell. This would be for Later in the day on Monday, 9/30.

    TK, comments?

    2. From NWS:

      SUNDAY AND BEYOND…
      SUNDAY COULD GO TWO DIFFERENT WAYS DEPENDING ON WHICH GROUPING OF MODELS YOU PREFER. HOWEVER IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH…WHETHER ITS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OR WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO COME INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS TO SEE WHERE IT
      ENDS UP…INTO THE REGION OR OFFSHORE. IDEALLY BELIEVE THAT THE TREND OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN DUE TO AMPLIFIED PATTERN SO BELIEVE SUNDAY WOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY…WITH SOME EFFECT FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY.

    3. Very interesting OS. The Canadian has definitely been effective in discovering these systems first, just not the strength and location early on.

  5. I hate to say it, but looking closer at the latest EURO, and i know we shouldnt take these runs verbatum (although it did accurately predict Sandy’s landfall a week out), whatever this is, comes ashore around the same location in southern NJ as Sandy. Thats the last thing they need down there 🙁

  6. OS has been posting links showing this for a long while now and TK also mentioned he was concerned (perhaps not the right choice of words) quite a while ago. Amazing.

    1. I’m just very curious to see how this pans out.
      Remember that they made a MAJOR enhancement to the Canadian
      last Winter. I’m just wondering if they haven’t been tweaking it all along
      since then. They wouldn’t announce tweakings.

      IF this pans out OR even comes close, this would make 2 times that
      the Canadian was onto something when ALL the other models did not
      have it. IF so, I “think” that we should pay particularly close attention to
      this model regarding potential Winter Storms. 😀 😀

      1. I’m curious for the same reason – only because you have been clear about that. I wouldn’t have figured it out on my own. I find this as fascinating as waiting/watching a system. Wouldn’t it be nice if we had a more reliable model??

  8. Thanks TK! It will be interesting to see how it plays out for the beginning of the week. I’ll be relying on you and OS to keep me updated. 🙂

  9. OS. Looks like the 12z GFS shows something weak but much closer. Coming in from the southeast to northwest and then turning at the last minute.

  10. GFS also starting to show some consistency the last couple runs with at least having this feature in the same general area come early next week, albeit more offshore than other models.

  12. Interesting to see the 12Z Euro. Just not ready yet.

    Clearly, something is up. Will it hit OR stay off shore, that seems to be
    the big question.

    We’ll keep watching, that’s for sure. 😀

  13. IF this does develop into something, tropical or subtropical, i think it would be named either way according to the new NHC regulations? No?

    1. Difficult to tell where it goes between hour 144 and 168, but looks to pass just SE of Nantucket on its way to Nova Scotia. Waiting on wundermap to finish to get a better idea.

      1. I believe so, maybe some gusty rain showers as that run puts us on the wet side. Wundermap finishing up soon which has shorter increments of data so that will give us a better idea of where exactly it goes

    2. Ace. Any time. I’m not the sole linker. 😀 😀

      Looks impressive.

      Vickie, according to this run, it would pass just East of the Cape and on up
      to Nova Scotia. Still 7 Days out, so anything can happen. TOO close to let
      our guard down.

      I think Wundermap ONLY goes out to 144 hours now? Perhaps it has changed?

      One thing for sure, we are getting some consistency among the models. 😀

      1. Is wundermap being weird for you too OS? Lots of convective feedback every other increment and goes from 135 hours to 174 in one shot?

  18. Awwwww, too bad ! I was hoping the 12z EURO would come in even more interesting, like 960 mb. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    1. It sure could, it’s still early. NHC doesnt seem too concerned as of yet, but if the models stay consistent the next couple days, i think they will have to monitor this. Does this form from that cluster of showers and storms off the west coast of FL or is this from the old Invest 95L thats spinning out in the western gulf?

  20. Euro at 150 hours has the center “just” South of Martha’s Vineyard. Just looking
    like a typical Winter N’oreaster. Nothing impressive.

    Looks to be extra-tropical. Euro depicts a pretty decent chunk of rain over
    the Boston area at this time.

    I wish Wundermap would fix their links so we could post a link here.
    Now, n order to do it, I have to take a screen shot, save it and then upload that file
    to some photo service online and then link to that here. A real PAIN in the butt.

    If this system were to look REALLY IMPRESSIVE, then I would do so.

    Just not that worthy at the moment. We’ll keep watching. 😀

  21. I had Woods Hill weather as an APP on my Iphone. One day it disappeared . I can not get it back. Any thoughts anyone ??

    2. Im assuming u saved the link as an icon since as far as i know theres no official app. If u have the new iOS 7 then when ur on the woodshill weather homepage there should be a row of functional icons on the bottom of the screen. Hit the one in the middle, looks like a piece of paper with an arrow up. Then u will have a set of options, one should read something like “send to homescreen”. That should put an icon on one of ur homescreens that links to the page. If u have iOS 6, i dont remember how to do it.

  22. I am sure we will get something on Monday. I took a vacation day to volunteer at a charity golf tournament at Marshfield Country Club. My luck would be that it gets rained out.

    1. Oh no. Doesn’t it figure. Although you never know. Mac was sure weather would postpone his tournament again Friday so you never know.

      Just know if I kind of hope for an interesting storm I don’t mean that I want it to interfere with your tournament 🙂

  23. Brett Anderson’s update has little or no tropical activity and much warmth for most of Canada for October. Columbus Day Weekend and beyond looks quite warm around here.

    This morning Todd said that the wooly bear caterpillar is showing a mild winter. Mother nature has been around long before computer models so we will see. I hope for no repeat of 2011-12 but I still have no clue as to what this upcoming winter will be like. I usually at least have a gut feeling by now.

    1. There all tweeting there horn on the upcoming winter.
      A few say warm and mild while most going with cold and snowy all winter. I was reading some online predictions the other day and got a good laugh. Again when we have a patern setting up than we may start seeing some tell tale signs, anything before that is just guessing in my op. Could we have a weak El Niño winter in which case translates into a snowy winter in most cases, just don’t know but I actually was doing some research on that. By the end of November I suspect we will start to see some signs, I think.

  24. As you know, more evidence for that storm system being a concern. Originally (whenever I first posted about it – I forget when) I was concerned of a tropical system. It doesn’t look like it’ll be tropical. I swear, any other year and it would be. This is just not a tropical kind of year.

    1. I for one would love to see the tropics quiet again next year as well…probably not likely though. 😉

      TK – Would you say now greater than 50/50 we get a direct hit for Monday?

    2. Isn’t it interesting that when we have an epic storm, we compare all others to it for years. We still do with blizzard of 78 although its waning. Charleston did and probably still does to Hugo. I’m sure other areas are the same. I guess part is our fascination, part is our fear and part is media hype. Certainly other factors also

      1. Thank my you longshot for the link. It was a Great read. Amazing how our guys here saw this weeks ago. Makes me smile with pride to be part of this group 🙂

  26. From the NWS office at Upton, NY:

    …THEN UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH HANDLING OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. STRENGTH AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARISE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. HOW FAR EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION…ALTHOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FURTHER OFFSHORE POSITION ATTM.

    1. If this were only winter, Sunday night/Monday would certainly be the timeframe to watch! Hopefully come winter we get at least one of these possible same type of potential setups like this. 😀

    1. Hi Emily. I’m surprised our dragonflies are still here. My partner said he totally enjoyed endicott. And the food is better than food they have for the buffet at Babson when we are there every spring.

  30. Looks like 65-75 degrees for highs and 45-55 degrees for lows for going right into Oct, about 15% color here, thinking peak color around here will be late Oct and then they will come crashing down going through Nov.

  32. Eric Fisher’s blog entry last night on BZ was excellent. I like how he explains the different weather models and the difference between operational and ensembles. He goes into a lot of detail yet explains it in a way an average reader can gather enough info to know whats going on. He has a hunch this thing will stay offshore and just give us some clouds and a shower or 2 and some gusty winds

    1. Thanks for bringing that to our attention – very well written. I now understand a few things better than I did before (e.g., NAO). Unless I missed it (I read quickly as I’m working and will read in detail later), he didn’t mention the Canadian???

      1. No i didnt see any mention of the Canadian either. Not sure why other than maybe he realized he had reached his limit of detailed info without confusing people, haha. 2 models are difficult enough to handle (weather models that is 😉 ) With the Canadian showing its improvements, although i still think it has issues overdoing precip, it will hopefully get more respect and mention this winter. Just one of the many tools mets use.

        1. Makes a lot of sense and I think you are right about too much information. People became quite familiar with the other two last year so it makes sense to limit it.

  33. Well, it’s still early….. BUT

    0Z Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    0Z Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

    0Z GFS:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    All these runs do have a common denominator….they all depict a rather WEAK
    system, so no matter what happens, it doesn’t look to be a big deal.

    Consensus: whatever develops “looks” to stay off shore.

    BUT, as JJ says any storm in the ocean off of the East coast, especially with a negative
    NAO, needs to be watched.

  34. I think we’ll get a better idea once the low pressure area breaks out into the open waters off the east coast of FL. Who knows, it might not even develop like a lot of other tropical “areas of potential development” this year

  35. Great discussion by the NWS out of Upton, NY about the storm THREAT for early next week. Its too much to post here on the blog but I think its a nice detailed explanation and is worth reading.

    2. I liked the WILD CARD:

      THERE IS A WILD CARD AT PLAY HERE – THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TYPHOON PABUK IN THE WEST PACIFIC. UNFORTUNATELY ITS EXACTS IMPACTS
      ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT ARE NOT KNOWN AS THIS SORT OF THING IS GENERALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS

        1. Interesting, eh?

          With a typhoon, it is all wrapped up at all levels of
          the atmosphere, so I guess as it transitions to extra tropical it “could” have an effect on the upper flow with a ripple affect all the way to our East coast. I’m thinking that somehow it could affect the amplification of any troughs or short waves? I dunno for sure. Hopefully TK can chime in and give us the skinny. 😀

  36. The NAO peaks in the negative territory around the time of the storm forming on the coast. We know right now a storm which is looks to be non tropical right now forms on the coast. The question is the strength and the track.

  38. From our friend Henry’s blog. You can count on a sunny and calm day on Monday. 🙂

    1. The coastal storm on the models has gone east and affects only eastern New England. I am still thinking that the later runs of the model will bring the storm back west and that areas from I-95 on east from Virginia to Maine will have at least some rain and gusty winds late in the weekend into early next week. Wave action along the beaches will be up in any case, and that may cause some beach erosion issues here and there.

  39. I can’t wait in a few months when these potential coastal storms have the opportunity to give us an accumulating snowfall.

  41. HM is up to his usual tricks. Nothing but rating. Greenland block is there but other factors are missing to bring this closer. Upper air pattern doesn’t seem to support a curve back towards coast.

  43. Looked at all of the 12Z runs.

    System still stays OFF SHORE. Main development is well NE of our area.
    In fact the Canadian blows this up to a 963 mb Bomb East of Labrador!!!

  46. Pardon my absenteeism today. I have been out and about for hours upon hours. Trying to write a new blog before night’s end so those of you up late can see it tonight and those of you that retire early can see it early tomorrow. 🙂

    Preview:
    -The models underforecasting of the magnitude and proximity of that low pressure area to our northeast is probably the reason that we have less of a chance of the newer ocean storm heading up this way early in the week. I wonder if this is a preview of the pattern heading into early winter. Something tells me not to forget this scenario.

    -Probably a trend to mild with brief cool shots coming, and below normal precip. This may be a theme as we head deeper into Autumn.

    -Even tho I’d love to share a few early thoughts about winter, I’m going to hold off for now. 🙂

      1. Many times the case when you have slow moving or stationary low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. 🙂

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