Cool Flip

156 Comments

4:44PM

We’re heading into a cooler pattern from the middle of this week into early  next week, but with a largely quiet weather pattern continuing, in terms of storminess. A cold front is moving through as of this evening and any shower activity with it will be exiting via east coastal MA, RI, and Cape Cod, followed by some clearing. The front will be sitting offshore for a while on Wednesday, allowing a wave of low pressure to make a run at southeastern New England, so the clouds will return, along with a rain threat, for Wednesday afternoon. It appears most of the rain will occur along and southeast of the I-95 corridor, with the greatest chance being south of Boston and especially over Cape Cod and the Islands. If rain does make it to Boston, it should be out of the way by the time of the beginning of World Series Game 1 between the Red Sox and Cardinals. It will be a very chilly game though, as will Game 2 on Thursday, but that one being without any threat of precipitation. See below for more on the weather for these games.

Thursday and Friday will be days that feature chilly air, a gusty breeze, and some varying amounts of cloudiness, but also some sunshine, as a big area of low pressure spins over eastern Canada. A small area of high pressure will slide across New England by early Saturday, putting an end to the gusty wind. A disturbance may cross the region later Saturday into Sunday but it looks like more of a cloud producer than a precipitation producer at this time. This is a little weaker outlook for this system than in the previous update. It will reinforce some chilly air for early next week when it departs.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any showers exit via southeastern MA and RI early. Decreasing cloudiness. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s Boston to  Cape Cod. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over early. A period of rain possible in the I-95 belt in the afternoon with a period of rain more likely in RI and southeastern MA during this time. Highs 50-56. Wind variable mainly N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain possible mainly Cape Cod early. Clearing later. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

WORLD SERIES GAME 1 FORECAST: Fenway park should have a temperature around 44 at first pitch and near 40 by the end of the game with a cloudy start followed by clearing later, and  NW breeze 10 to 15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WORLD SERIES GAME 2 FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Temperature starting out around 45 by falling to the upper 30s by the end of the game with a gusty NW breeze 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 51.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 52.

156 thoughts on “Cool Flip”

    1. I believe Friday night / Saturday morning will be the coldest of this stretch.

      I’ll be up “dark and early” Saturday morning for a 7AM departure to the SNE Weather Conference.

  2. Thanks tk, I just sold 2 redsox tix game 1 for 1,250, I love this weather cause its not cold and it not hot, 50’s-60’s r perfect

    1. Nice! Now you can take us all out to dinner. 😉 J/K

      We’ll be feeling a bit of a chill the next several days in comparison to what we have had, and whoever is going to that game will need a warm jacket and maybe even a hat. 🙂

  3. So again I would just like to get a deadline set for our winter forecast that we do every year, Vicki will keep track of it. Does everybody like 12/1 for the final day.

    2. As always – and you all know the drill – if I don’t acknowledge your guess it means I didn’t see it :). I never mind being reminded !!

    1. There were some big monsters out there in the 1990s. Once in a while we get into a regime that we see many over a few years and several in the same season.

      1. Its amazing when the eyes of these intense storms take on that “stadium effect” look. And this one appears to have it.

  8. December 1st, eh ?? Well, I’ll just try it now. 🙂

    Lets see, Boston Harbor buoy water temp is 58.5F, that seems warm and the Atlantic Ocean east of us continues at 1-2 C above normal per the Reynolds SST analysis as of October 19th. So, that to me, seems to be a negative for coastal snow, at least early in the winter.

    The whole summer, it was colder and stormier in the arctic. There was a comeback of sorts in ice coverage. The pressure averaged lower than normal. Its seemed to continue into the fall. Low and behold, in just checking the arctic oscillation forecast, a general positive phase is forecast over the next couple of weeks, which, after reading up on it, I guess seems to cause less amplified, more west to east flow in the jet stream. If this were to continue, that seems to be another negative against snowfall, regionwide.

    Looking at persistence, its been dry. The equatorial Pacific, if anything, looks cooler than normal or a weak La Nina, so, I wouldnt think there’d be an active southern winter jet stream full of moisture. So, if its dependent on an active northern jet stream, I suppose a clipper could explode south of us or a clipper could redevelop into a secondary low and get eastern New England. Again though, seems like this would tend to favor odds of lower snowfall.

    So, with all those factors, of which I could be analyzing them incorrectly, I’ll go with 19.4 inches of snow at Logan, with all 3 winter months below normal precip wise and near to slightly below average temp wise.

    And, therefore, its probably likely to snow more than 100 inches. LOL !!

    1. Not ready to make mine yet, but I think it gets more active and wetter towards the end of winter and we may start adding up then.

  10. TK – Any early thoughts about the weather in general for Game 7 next Thursday? 😉

    Yes I have faith in the Sox, but I really doubt another sweep even though they did it in both World Series (St. Louis 2004, Colorado 2007) this century.

    1. EARLY outlook: looks mild middle of next week. We’ll see how the timing goes. Despite what some have said, I’m not sure the cold pattern is here to stay quite yet. We’ll eventually get into some more persistent cold (that is below normal, not just climate of the season).

  11. Tom you put a ton of analysis and do a great job with your post. I know I can speak for others that thy are always very informative and educated. Unfortunately you will be wrong with the last post 🙂 haha

    1. thanks !! and your exactly correct on the chances for accuracy 🙂 ….. it was cruise control to a low total last winter and then NEMO’s 25 or so inches of snow wiped that out. And then all the March snow. 🙂 🙂

      1. hmmmmm – so do we rethink our snow totals for last year and just eliminate the few errrr large storms? I think if that’s the case whoever said 18 inches came closest?? no?

  12. I have 19.4 and 35.4 for Tom and Charlie, respectively. Interesting – 4/10 seems to be the place to go??

    1. Vicki I am going to wait till the deadline for my amount. Still to early for me. I like toms thinking though.

  13. You have your dry months and you have your wet months. It all averages out in the end. I’m leaning towards a cold winter with average snow fall. A lot of 3″ to 4″ events. The warmer ocean waters are a concern for snowfall along the coast but that also means there is a lot of available energy. I think there could be some huge storms this year along the Appalachians.

    Average rainfall from Jan 1 to Sep 30 = 32.06”
    Actual rainfall from Jan 1 to Sep 30 2013 = 31.9”
    Rainfall Deficit = -0.16”

    Month Average
    January 3.36 in
    February 3.25 in
    March 4.32 in
    April 3.74 in
    May 3.49 in
    June 3.68 in
    July 3.43 in
    August 3.35 in
    September 3.44 in

    Month 2013 Rainfall
    January 1.10 in
    February 5.60 in
    March 3.40 in
    April 1.50 in
    May 3.40 in
    June 10.60 in
    July 3.60 in
    August 1.90 in
    September 0.80 in

    1. Hadi, u always ask me if I’m happy about players coming to the Patriots, yes I’m happy!! R u kidding, have ya seen our defensive injuries? Anyways take it easy 🙂

      1. Bc you seem so exited about an aged player. Injuries are killing you guys but Andre carter is not going to save the day.

          1. I’d chose all the draft pics the Pats lost out on bc BB was in the habit of trading down to get “value” in the later rounds. All that value is now out of the NFL and the guys we should have drafted are making other teams better. Now BB will say he did this to have depth on the team in the future. Where’s all that depth now??

            1. Take the good with the bad, what do u want am, do u want to get rid of a coach that’s gonna go down as a top coach of his time, just like all HOF Coaches they don’t get fired until they have really bad losing seasons for a couple yrs, ex Landry, Shula

              1. Never said i would get rid of him, just saying his personnel decisions, esp from 2006 thru 2010, have been suspect. Trying to put together a team with coins instead of bills (no pun intended). On field coaching he is one of if not the best ever. As a team manager, not so much. Some would say he hasn’t won anything with his own hand picked players, attributing the 3 super bowls to the previous regime. You can’t deny there’s some truth to that.

            1. Charlie you are transferring your habits to me. I was literally asking a question because I was interested in Hadi’s reply. I haven’t had a chance to ask my SIL and I’m not that versed on players outside of the franchise with some exceptions.

        3. he was on a crappy team thats the only reason why he did not have more than 3 sacks. the season he did play for us he had 12 and a half sacks hadi im pumped about it as well. will get a veteran in the front to help with the run and pass rush.

    2. LOVE November!

      It get dark early, but it’s not as dreary as many think. There are often some very bright days shining on the rustic-colored trees. A wonderful month with the holiday season rolling in. 🙂

  21. And BB is a HOF coach but his Super Bowls came IMHO based on the talent that was already here in place. Sure he coached them right but credit doesn’t go to him for picking/putting the team together.

    But it’s usually pointless to discuss with you bc you can’t see past anything except your opinion.

    1. I am. 😀

      The irony is, I didn’t become one until several years after I had my degree. 😉

    1. I also wanted to. Some of the locations were close enough but the times didn’t work. It has always fascinated me.

    1. I don’t know how to find you. I used to use FB all of the time and am trying to get back to using it but it changed. Are you under Hadi?

  25. It is with great sadness I pass along the news of the passing of one of the pioneers in the private sector of meteorology – Peter Leavitt. This man was my first boss when I started my career. He had an unconventional style built on a traditional foundation. He knew things about meteorology that most of us could never quite grasp. He taught me more than anybody else about weather and its impact on agriculture. He also had a side company that took people on trips anywhere in the world to view total solar eclipses.

    He never made a big deal of this, but he and his wife were very close friends with Robert Kraft and his family.

    I have not seen Pete for many years (over 10) but the impact he had on me never dulled and I’ll always remember his lessons and wisdom.

    Here is the obituary in case you are interested: http://obits.dignitymemorial.com/dignity-memorial/obituary.aspx?n=Peter-Leavitt&lc=7323&pid=167650420&mid=5706832

    1. How tragic, TK. Thank you for letting us know. I didn’t know Mr. Leavitt but the love and admiration I felt in your post brought tears. I read his obituary and the condolence messages. What a wonderful life and how special that he also touched so many other lives.

    1. I’m trying to figure how not to out my full name on a public site. Let me think about it for a bit. Ideas appreciated 🙂

        1. I just read up. You are braver than I. Just sent friend request. Thanks Hadi. This will get me using FB again

  28. TK saw your comment about November. I remember that you too like when we set the clocks back. I love when it gets dark early. And I also love the buildup to the holiday. Plus I have a new grandson due in a couple of weeks which is a whole other reason to love November. Well I fit three loves into this comment…..hmmmm

        1. Good for the mosquitos, not sure about the grass. The soil needs to be at least 55 deg for growth. As long as the daytime temps stay at or above that it should continue to grow. Once we are consistently below that, all bets are off. My grass has already slowed down. I most likely wont be able to cut it. I should have planted around labor day.

          1. My baby grass is about 3 inches. I am not sure whether to cut or leave. It is getting thicker. Wish the rest of the lawn looked as good. We had a lot of stuff going on so SIL dug up only some areas. We should have dug up entire thing. I was looking at it this morning in a couple of spots and hoping we don’t have grubs. Do you know if we can do grub control with baby grass?

            1. Grubs should be starting to slow down and getting ready to burrow down for the colder months so application now would be minimally effective. Eggs have already hatched from the late summer and larvae have already done their damage. I read best time to do grub control is early to mid Aug time frame to get them as soon as they hatch.

  33. first dusting of snow for many of the bigger ski resorts up in new hampshire and vermont and i believe i saw that scott saw his first snow up by his college.

    1. It’s coming 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Really windy today. Lots of leaves flying. The trees blowing against the bright, clear blue sky look very pretty!

  34. i don’t really like november. to cold to go swimming, to warm to go skiing ( no snow) and the holidays are not for another month,(don’t count halloween as a holiday.)

    1. I’ll loan you my grandson 🙂 You will never think of Halloween as anything but the biggest holiday of all. It pains me to say that he may even have it above Christmas….at least on an even par.

  36. Great way to start a day. I was up at the crack of dawn for a 7:30 phone conference. Neither phone line in the house is working. And a few days ago the M-Cell through ATT that boosts my cell reception stopped working. And here I sit waiting for Verizon to show – sometime before 8:00 PM and for a call back from ATT. No one should have to deal with both of them in one day 🙂

        1. Yea unfortunatly it is real. Clearly something on his glove. I saw him the whole game, pardon the term, blowing out snots. Must have had a cold and got some snots on the glove. Yea, thats what im going with, lol.

          1. Interesting – JR on 7 was saying that perhaps the Cards pitcher had trouble with the ball because when it is so dry and cold it tends to change things. I’m sure hoping Lester didn’t do anything stupid.

        2. I did and all I saw was how good he pitched. The sox don’t need to cheat at all as there that good. They made stlouis look bad

            1. I know that Vicki. Lastnight though the sox made them look like the bad news bears. I suspect they come out stronger tonight if not I don’t know.

              1. I kinda thought they made themselves look bad. Happens to every team. We, of all sports towns, know that 🙂

  41. No formal complaints from the cardinals and no investigation by MLB. No conclusive evidence. Photos clearly show substance on his glove but thats not why they won.

    2. If photos show anything at all, they have to check. We would want the same done if it were the team we were playing. I’m glad there was nothing found. I honestly would have been very surprised but dumber things have happened.

    1. oh no…….my plan was to do what we did last year (when we didn’t have power) and start a fire out front and sit and give out candy

  46. We’ve lost of lot of leaves in the last week or so. Still some green but changing quickly. Whatever green there was has turned a nasty yellowish brown color.

  47. Low to mid 20s for dewpoints …. Its a good thing winds arent going calm tonight, its going to be chilly enough as it is.

    1. Hadi, i think i remember seeing somewhere that areas that have already had a frost will not receive watches or warnings going forward. It was a graphic somewhere. I dont remember if suffolk county was in there though but i do know norfolk and bristol and plymouth counties were

  49. MLB saying non issue regarding pitcher. They said he was doing something with the ball begins with a d and that all teams do it. No issue and absolutely not cheating.

    2. My bet is that Boston gets to near freezing Saturday morning and perhaps below sometime the next few days after that.

      I believe the average freeze for Boston is around November 7th.

      1. I finally turned the heat on last night. Weather Channel has 46 for a high next Tuesday. Don’t know if I would go that low. TK?

        2. Daughter turned heat on on their side of house since baby is little. She said it only came on once and that was enuf. Haven’t turned it on in back of house yet and probably won’t for a bit

                1. We have gas heat. The rates don’t go up until Nov 1st for winter. Just have to keep my wife from turning it up to much :).

    1. Yes I did some follow up and I guess lester sweats big time. He uses two ball caps per game because as he said the brim is always soaking wet. Wow this guy sweats. The stuff in his glove is to prevent the ball from slipping. I feel bad for him after such a great game. So again no issues all around. He shouldn’t sweat the small stuff.

      1. I’d be curious as to JRs comments on 7 weather this morning about the low temps and humidity making the ball difficult to hold.

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