Trick No Treat

105 Comments

3:31PM

Mother Nature has decided it’s more of a trick than a treat for this Halloween Evening as an area of rain is racing into much of northern MA and southern NH, wetting areas especially north of the Mass Pike, with less activity in south central and southeastern MA and across RI. Enough activity is generating upstream to keep the chance of wet weather going, especially in northern MA and southern NH, right through the evening, then expanding into all areas during the night and through Friday morning. All the while, warm and humid air will be moving into the region on increasing southerly winds. After the low pressure area and frontal system responsible for this wet weather clears the region later Friday, we’ll have a period of drier weather, but a second cold front will cross the region Saturday night with more clouds and a rain shower risk as mild air will hang on until that front passes. By Sunday, we’ll be into a stronger northwest wind flow, transporting much cooler and drier weather.

A peak into next week shows that we’ll have a chilly start and a warming midweek with dry weather expected, as we start first with a cold airmass from Canada then build a ridge of high pressure along the East Coast, which may bring Indian Summer conditions by the middle of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH EVENING: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain especially Mass Pike northward, with a chance of showers to the south. Areas of fog. Temperatures around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Overcast with rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms through midday then a few lingering shower possible for the remainder of the afternoon hours. Areas of fog. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind SW 15-30 MPH gusting  35-50 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind SW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 50.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 75.

105 thoughts on “Trick No Treat”

  2. Thanks, TK. And you right. We have been tricked. Raining here. Mac and I are going to Uxbridge this year to give out candy while they take kids out. Youngest and family will be here though. Oh well, they will make the best of it!

  3. No rain here in Jp looks just to the north of us.

    For sure it looks warm mid week but not going to last long though.
    Major storm in Siberia going on which bodes well down the road.

    1. It may get very cold in Canada but we may have trouble getting it into the US for a while, other than in short-lived shots.

    2. The pattern is on the fence between the relative warm/dry that the Euro monthlies spoke of, and a more persistent cold/dry pattern. To be honest, I have a feeling it may come down to what phase the QBO is in, along with the timing of ENSO phase shift. There is still script to be written and the next 2 to 4 weeks will tell the rest of the story.

  5. I’m concerned about the wind tomorrow. We’re flying out of Logan at around 9 am. Any thoughts on timing of the strongest winds and impact at Logan? Any flyers reading this have ideas on if Logan can handle winds out the SW? Thanks!

    1. Here too …. The trick or treaters are all showing up wet. But, its seriously mild out, so the kids seem as happy as ever.

        1. Very, very busy with the start of school, parent-teacher conferences and helping my wife getting our kids to after school activities.

    2. Airblowns good Vicki as there strapped to the porch. Had to bring in my anamatronics as the wind kept toppling them. Sadly I may have one damaged and big money. Windy here Vicki all day.

  9. Very lightly raining here but getting the normal amount of kids for trick or treat that usually come.
    The wind will pick up overnight and tomorrow morning and I would not be surprised if there are some power issues in SNE.

    1. Coincidence really. It’s just by chance we’ve been in the warm sector of a mid latitude cyclone 3 out of the last 4 years.

      One of the best unscientific cycles we went through for years was a pattern of Thanksgivings on even years being dry/chilly and Thanksgivings on odd years being unsettled for the decade of the 1980s.

            1. It’s really hard for me to ignore that warm forecast from the Euro monthlies. Leaning that way. But not nearly as persistent as the anomalous pattern we had a few years ago.

              Canada is likely to be extremely cold. We’ll get pieces of that even in an overall warmer pattern.

    1. I made stew, too! Hope you and TK enjoyed yours as much as I enjoyed mine! 🙂 It was chilly early in the day and conducive to a warm, stick to the ribs meal like that!

  16. BB has the wind much stronger today than TK’s forecast. He put today’s winds at 25-45 mph. I think he mentioned a wind advisory until 6 PM.

  17. Those winds are enough to warrant the wind advisory that has been posted for all of SNE.
    The wind looks to be the biggest threat here with this front moving through. I am not concerned about flooding.

  19. These are the days that I love having my desk in a window. The wind is roaring and the clouds are literally flying by. Hard to focus on the computer screen.

    And now I am hungry for stew — yummy TK and Emily! Maybe for the game Sunday.

    1. I find that to be the case majority of the time we get a high wind watch, ends up just being a wind advisory. Very rarely do the watches turn into warnings. Only thing about the advisory id say is more significant this time of year due to leaves on the trees and also the leaves are wet from the rain weighing them down more. Other than that, yes, mostly overrated.

  21. Exactly 62 candy bars distributed last evening. Way down from normal years.
    Oh well, more candy for me to devour. 😀

    re: today from the NWS

    …THIS LLJ IS ALREADY NEARING 55-65 KTS PER LATEST VWP DATA. WITH THAT BEING SAID…STRONG GUSTS OF 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALLOWING FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

    Really? Is this more Wolf howling? or not?

    NOT very windy out there now. Not at all.

    1. It’s very windy here OS. We are having regular gusts well into the 20s.

      Maybe a power failure 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. he he he

          YUP that’s the stuff that makes for a WIND ADVISORY!!!

          😀 😀 😀

          I’d better watch out for that big ole maple tree across
          the street. Sure to come down today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          1. Silly Old Salty – I was thinking it would only get worse so this was a start – no??? please tell me wind will get stronger than this??

  22. I think I’ve asked this before but couldn’t find a response. Does anyone have a weather station? And if so, what kind would u recommend? Im looking for one that has outside temp, humidity, dewpoint, and maybe wind speed and that will send the data wirelessly to my computer. I’m guessing a good one can get $$$$

    1. I had the weather channel one that Mac got me for Christmas a few years ago. Don’t get that. We are lucky to have two Wunderground weather stations less than a half mile from us on both west and south of our house. When my station did work, both reported identical to my station.

  23. I think I’ve asked this before but couldn’t find a response. Does anyone have a weather station? And if so, what kind would u recommend? Im looking for one that has outside temp, humidity, dewpoint, and maybe wind speed and that will send the data wirelessly to my computer. I’m guessing a good one can get $$$$

    1. I had the same problem but was told mine was a duplicate post. I have had some problems getting on here for a couple of days. They are intermittent though.

  25. I found this and I am not seeing this will happen — but hoping it will 🙂

    NWS says “A wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be above 30 miles per hour and gusts between 45 and 57 miles per hour.”

    And it is supposed to pick up this pm — but sustained above 30?

    1. It has to be in the high 30s here at least as it is just pounding, I bet it’s higher I’m going to look into it.

      1. I checked Humarock and their highest gust has been 46. Yours is just a bit above what we are having. I’m in hopkinton now and it doesn’t seem quite as intense. I love this weather. Temp is 72.

        1. Oh readings I was getting for your area were lower chandler pond station. Don’t know where that is but am sure you do

  31. The line coming through right now where I am in CT. It got dark and quick shot of heavy rain and the wind speeds are picking up. Its moving quickly to the east. No thunder or lightning with this line.

  34. What has me concerned for our winter prospects in SNE is the ridging that is setting up. In the immediate future, we’ll have a brief cold shot, and it’ll get quite cold, followed by a fairly dramatic warm-up as essentially a Cape Hatteras High settles providing us with a southwesterly airflow. TK is right that we should expect Indian Summer conditions by mid week. This pattern may last a while. And from what I remember from 2011-2012, our pattern was quite similar. Sustained cold may be hard to come by, and storms will mostly come in the form of rain as Lows follow the jet-stream just to our north. We’ll have to wait and see. One difference I see is that the cold in Canada will be more evenly distributed and not just be stationed to our northwest. It looks like provinces directly to our north will also be cold, and are getting cold as I write this post. What this implies is that a battle line will set up across Central and Northern New England. Unlike two years ago when there was very little snow up north, I think this year may be different. What may happen is that while we may be enduring bouts of windswept rain, the Green and White Mountains could be getting lots of snow.

    1. I bet we get plenty shots at snow this winter here. I am going with above when I post my forecast end of this month.

  35. Here is the 11AM obs from Logan:

    Temperature: 70.0 °F (21.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: 61.0 °F (16.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 73 %
    Wind: from the Southwest at 32.2 gusting to 49.5 MPH (28 gusting to 43 KT

    I’m looking out my wind at the trees. I JUST don’t see the wind being
    that strong. It’s up some from first thing this morning, but gusting to 50???????

    I guess it has to be correct, but just doesn’t seem that strong out there.

    Going out at lunch, so we’ll see. 😀

    1. Not for nothing, but many reporting stations are gusting to only the 30s with some in the 40s. North Adams 26.

      Blue Hill has the jackpot at gusting to 51, but that is to be expected, as they
      are at 635 feet. 😀

    2. Oldsalty down here along the south shore has been brutal. I think it’s starting to calm down a bit now.

  38. I thought it was supposed to be worse in afternoon. I’m jumping onto Old Salty’s bandwagon – this is NOT as advertised and, John, it was really strong here this morning too but was supposed to be worse in PM.

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    1. Guess I shouldn’t be annoyed huh? Where was damage? I did see a convoy of NSTAR trucks when I headed out this morning.

    2. How is this so?

      This was nothing but a routine windy day. 😀
      I was out and about walking in it. No big deal at all.

      The only thing I noticed in my travels were a few “small” branches down
      and a bunch of extra leaves flying about. 😀

      1. I’m thinking that while it was not bad in JP it was bad other areas in MA. When you said it wasn’t windy in JP this morning, we were gusting to 30. That may not be enough for a wind advisory, but it would be considered windy. It seems the south shore got a lot of wind as John and Sue said.

  41. All fooling aside re wind, the unfortunate part is we only got 0.11 inch of rain. I was hoping for a ton more. Did other areas get more rain?

  42. BREAKING NEWS….

    Jamaica Plain Damage Report:

    A small branch down in the middle of a neighborhood street.

    Details at 11.

  44. We’ve seen some of our branches lose power here on the south shore. There are a few good sized tree limbs down in my neighborhood. It is calming down now but the wind was howling for quite a while down here.

  45. I guess it comes down to where you are. Down here is wicked and no exaggeration . I was down the firehouse earlier and the chief said it was unreal. I would say it was met and more down here except the rain part. Very warm out as you know.

    1. John…I have been listening to the scanner most of the day and there have been tons of calls for trees on wires. They’ve had their work cut out for them today.

      1. I think it is not unusual for it to be very windy there when it isn’t bad in other areas. I just returned from Marlboro/Sudbury and there were two trees across the road. It is a back road and trees are not well groomed but still….

  46. Re: Wind

    I’m willing to concede that it varied from location to location today.

    All I’m saying is that I didn’t witness anything even remotely impressive regarding
    the wind. I mean NOT even close.

    That being said, a tree will probably fall on my car as I make my way home in a few minutes. 😀

  48. Blog is updated!

    I will catch up on comments later.

    I am taking my son to see Thomas Dolby in Gloucester now and he doesn’t know he’s going to meet him in person after the show. 😉

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