3 Months In 3 Days

291 Comments

2:22AM

The next 3 days will represent the feel of 3 months. Today will feel like November, Saturday will be more like a typical December day, while Sunday will represent January.

Today’s weather will be the result of a warm front pushing eastward into New England – lots of clouds, a little milder but damp, with spotty light rain. Saturday’s Decemberish weather will come from a first cold front that passes by in the early morning hours, sending a drying and brisk breeze with cool air across southeastern New England. A second cold front passing by Saturday night, possibly accompanied by snow showers and squalls, will deliver air more fitting for January during Sunday, along with a strong wind and very low wind chill values.

Next week, being a big travel/holiday week with Thanksgiving and the start of the Christmas shopping season, is a crucial week for weather. We will likely start and end the week with cold air. The tricky part is what happens in the middle. Much computer guidance still indicates the possibility of an East Coast storm around Wednesday, the biggest travel day, but even with a current trend of a more impacting storm, I’m going to remain cautious and very low confidence this far out, and continue to lean toward the system being more elongated and further offshore. Wording will be very generic for this potential event and there will be plenty of time to refine the forecast during the next several days.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty light rain in the morning diminishing from west to east midday and afternoon. Clouds may break from the west late. Highs in the 40s to near 50. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers through about midnight. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated rain or snow showers from west to east overnight. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and possibly a snow squall. Lows around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered to isolated snow showers, diminishing with time. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 17. High 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 42.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 39.

291 thoughts on “3 Months In 3 Days”

  1. TK, thank you for the update and a good title. Do you have a Sunday evening Foxboro forecast? Looks rough!

  2. Thanks TK. Curious as to your thinking re: More off shore, despite all of the guidance??

    Looking more and more like a high impact storm and more like there WILL be some
    SNOW involved, especially Inland and perhaps towards the end of the storm near the
    coast, at least in the Boston area. Will continue to monitor.
    😀

    1. Feeling it may still be overdone by models and it’s also a fairly fast-moving open wave, even if it does have southern stream origins. There is never complete phasing of the 2 streams.

      1. TK, Fair enough. Thank you.

        re: Open Wave

        I’ve seen them dump copious amounts of precip, so if
        it sets up right, we could still get much. 😀

        Interesting scenario to say the least.

  3. OK, for the main event, let’s start with the Euro.
    I believe this is 4 days running the Euro has had this system. It has backed off
    from the inside runner solution and has more of a benchmark system, albeit elongated.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Here’s another look:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013112200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

    And a look at the ensemble mean:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2013112200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

      1. And the 06Z GFS:

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

        The FIM still holds onto an elongated off shore solution:

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2013112200&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=150&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0

  5. Latest from NWS:

    SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FORM OF
    PRECIPITATION…AND RIGHT NOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE A MIX OF RAIN CLOSER
    TO THE COAST AND SNOW MORE INLAND. HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH TO BE
    RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS.

    1. WOW! Euro has SNOW for Boston!!!!

      Hadi THANK YOU for posting this. Good stuff. Hopefully, you can post
      this PM when the 12Z data is out.

      Thanks again.

    2. Hadi, is that the output from the euro’s new high res update? There has been a significant difference in the snow outputs between the regular and high res

      1. I saw that. Not sure the difference between the two. I ran the output for the euro and I think it shows snow just not as much as that. Maybe TK can elaborate on the difference between the two.

          1. Ace,

            Where do you get this INFO? Do you have a link?
            Did it come from a discussion somewhere?

            Many thanks

  8. For anybody interested Judah Cohen will give his forcast next week with Harvey. I just received an email from him this morning.

  10. NE storm center on Facebook is showing a euro map that has 10+ inches for Boston.

    EURO 850 and 2M temps are barley above freezing for bos.

        1. How does it generate 10 inches of snow with 850MB
          temp above freezing?? Unless the layer is extremely
          THIN.

          Something isn’t right. 😀

          1. I think it RAINS first, then 850 temps drop
            to allow the snow. Shows about .81 inch with 850
            temps below freezing.

  11. Here is the output data for the euro.

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z NOV22
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    FRI 00Z 22-NOV -0.3 0.3 1032 78 19 0.00 570 544
    FRI 06Z 22-NOV 1.7 -1.6 1028 86 94 0.00 568 546
    FRI 12Z 22-NOV 3.0 0.5 1024 95 97 0.02 566 546
    FRI 18Z 22-NOV 6.9 2.8 1018 98 88 0.07 561 547
    SAT 00Z 23-NOV 5.3 2.2 1014 98 53 0.02 558 547
    SAT 06Z 23-NOV 6.1 2.0 1009 97 86 0.00 552 544
    SAT 12Z 23-NOV 2.5 -0.4 1011 74 10 0.00 542 534
    SAT 18Z 23-NOV 6.1 -5.8 1009 37 42 0.00 533 526
    SUN 00Z 24-NOV 1.1 -9.1 1008 54 75 0.01 524 517
    SUN 06Z 24-NOV -1.6 -12.0 1008 50 63 0.01 516 510
    SUN 12Z 24-NOV -4.2 -17.2 1011 40 37 0.00 512 504
    SUN 18Z 24-NOV -1.9 -16.1 1011 27 23 0.00 514 505
    MON 00Z 25-NOV -4.0 -17.0 1016 26 45 0.00 519 507
    MON 06Z 25-NOV -5.4 -13.9 1021 27 60 0.00 527 511
    MON 12Z 25-NOV -7.0 -12.7 1025 27 21 0.00 537 518
    MON 18Z 25-NOV -1.5 -11.6 1026 16 20 0.00 546 526
    TUE 00Z 26-NOV -4.1 -6.9 1026 29 86 0.00 549 529
    TUE 06Z 26-NOV -1.1 -5.7 1024 48 100 0.00 550 531
    TUE 12Z 26-NOV -1.2 -4.8 1023 52 99 0.00 552 534
    TUE 18Z 26-NOV 4.9 -3.4 1020 37 97 0.00 554 538
    WED 00Z 27-NOV 1.6 -1.4 1019 67 98 0.00 556 541
    WED 06Z 27-NOV 1.9 -0.8 1016 83 98 0.00 555 542
    WED 12Z 27-NOV 0.6 2.0 1013 96 97 0.15 554 544
    WED 18Z 27-NOV 1.0 2.7 1004 98 100 0.58 552 549
    THU 00Z 28-NOV 0.7 -1.6 1000 88 88 0.46 549 549
    THU 06Z 28-NOV -3.7 -5.2 999 82 99 0.25 542 543
    THU 12Z 28-NOV -6.9 -10.0 1004 66 42 0.13 531 527
    THU 18Z 28-NOV -3.9 -9.6 1011 57 28 0.00 526 518
    FRI 00Z 29-NOV -8.4 -9.8 1020 67 37 0.00 529 514

  14. Tim Kelly tweet.

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Schizophrenic GFS (we’re talking weather model here, not a sentient being) now forecasting Benchmark Bomb of C.Cod Weds Night. Fits Pattern

      1. LOL

        OS, i got that snow map above off of the NE Storm Center facebook page. I saw it this morning and my eyes almost popped out of my head.

    1. Im curious why the regular euro is still being run and put out there. I would think it would be an update to the current euro and then it would become one in the same, one model just updated. Causing some confusion.

  16. Thank you weather Gods for making tomorrow a decent day! My husband and I will be carrying the Sullivan Tire banner in front of Wally the Green Monster and Steve Horgan (the Boston Bullpen Cop). If anyone wants something fun to do tomorrow, come on down to Plymouth.

    1. Hi Sue – I’m glad for you it will be a nice day. Great time to go to Plymouth!! Have fun! Your husband’s ankle is feeling better?? We are heading to Providence to see our new grandson or I think we’d go. We are hoping to get to Humarock the following weekend for the Christmas tree lighting!!

      1. Thanks Vicki! My husband’s ankle is still sore but he knew I was stressed about getting enough volunteers so he figured he’d help me out. I am sure I will pay for it. 🙂 Maybe we will be able to hook up in Humarock for the lighting!

        1. What a great guy you have 🙂 And yes, maybe we can hook up. I haven’t looked at the weather for next weekend. I have given up on looking more than a few days ahead. That being said, as soon as someone mentions a snow storm – even a month out – I know I’ll be jumping for joy!

      1. A Classic BOMB, but I caution…the DGEX is basically the NAM
        run out up to 192 hours. In this particular case, it is 138 hours.
        Remember how we only want to trust the NAM from 60 hours in.

        So, please take with a grain of salt, but I thought it was very interesting, so I posted it. 😀

  18. Northeast Storm Center (12 minutes ago as of 10:30AM)
    All models are in agreement that this will produce a snowstorm… However things could still change but confidence is definitely increasing…

  22. I’m just curious that tk thinks this will not happen the way it’s being played out. And oldsalty I know you said last night no snow for boston. So I ask with nearly a week out how can you trust these models, or do you just take with a grain of salt.

    1. John,

      This far out, they are just “Guidance”. So yes, a grain of salt is advised.

      The models are certainly doing their flip-flop thing.
      We’ll see what the others have to say later.

      BTW, John, more recent guidance suggests that there WILL be at least
      “some” snow in Boston. We shall see.

  24. Well now, GFS back to a more offshore solution. Ironically enough, the only places to see any snow at all are the providence to boston corridor.

  25. I think the GFS was tempted by the temptress that is the EURO, had a moment of weakness, and is now coming back to reality.

    1. Not a dusting, but rather a solid 2-4 inches.

      BUT the main point is, it is a HUGE turnaround from the last 2 runs.

      TK has said all along that he favored a more OTS scenario. 😀

  30. Well, I’m still gonna keep an eye on this but it appears our 2nd potential is no potential, I would like a little snow for Christmas, I hope that at least comes true, we shall see, by the way os, I wanna thank u for giving your thoughts and posting the models, thanks again 🙂

    1. When you saying throwing, I presume you mean he is tossing it out and
      totally and completely disregarding it?

      I’m not so sure he is wrong. I reserve judgement on that until I view
      the Canadian and then the Euro and to an extent the FIM.

      IF those also trend more OTS, then he is flat out WRONG, if however,
      they still show a high impact storm, then he could very well be correct.
      😀

  33. I’m just going to guess all rain around these parts Wednesday clearing out for turkey day. I believe this cold shot coming in over the weekend is very short lived. Could a pattern be cold than when storms come around it warms back up and poof.

    1. Meaning for the winter set up. For some reason all forecasts I’m seeing and I have viewed a ton of information say warm winter for northeast. I personally am not buying it.

  34. From NWS office in Upton, NY:

    OVERALL…RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW NW ZONES…WITH MAINLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…IF ANY PRECIP DOES INDEED OCCUR.

    THEN A NW TO SE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON NORTH FLOW. STAY TUNED…BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    1. I’m not buying anything nor am I sold on anything.

      Quite frankly, this is New England, there is a big ocean out there and
      COLD air banked in Canada. Very strange things can and have happened
      before.

      If OTS, then nothing happens. IF it is somewhat offshore and a grazing,
      then likely some snow. Closer in, then rain to snow. Closer still ALL RAIN.

      Who knows at this point.

      Honestly, I am “leaning” towards a benchmark storm which would mean
      at least the first 1/2 rain and up to the the last 1/2 snow down to it just winds
      down as some snow.

      Still watching

  37. I think what hadi said on yesterday’s blog, we won’t know with a decent amount of confidence until tomorrow at the earliest

  41. WTF…this is getting HILARIOUS….Look at this 12Z Canadian….

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=114&fixhh=1&hh=120

    And Euro, not so steady in my opinion, MUCH WARMER

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2013112212/USA_PRMSL_msl_120.gif

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2013112212/USA_TMP_850mb_120.gif

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2013112212/USA_PRMSL_msl_144.gif

  43. Well, It is CLEAR now!!!

    The models haven’t a CLUE what to do with the atmospheric
    conditions as presented to them!!! 😀 😀 😀

    1. Hmmm
      Very interesting and thank you.

      OF PARTICULAR NOTE to me is:

      RELIED ON THE 00Z/22 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE
      MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE WHOLE NATION, LARGELY DUE TO ITS INHERENT STABILITY VIA THE SHEAR NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS–AND ITS SKILLFUL TRACK RECORD.

      Excuse me… WELL someone does NOT think that the Euro is all wet. 😀 😀 😀

  47. With respect to the EURO and I’m not looking at the 850 mb charts/temps etc ……

    If I took the EURO verbatim, I interpret the airmass has a chance to moderate slightly prior to the arrival of the precipitation and there doesnt look to be a bombing pressure drop (it only drops to 997mb). So, how much it would cool the column seems questionable.

    Also, its November and the ocean’s still relatively mild and taking into account the history of not a great number of southern New England Nov snowfalls, it just seems to me that if this EURO scenario played out, it would be rain for most of eastern Mass. A chilly rain, but rain.

    1. Tom,

      Oh, I agree. In that scenario, there “may” still be “some” snow
      at the tail end.

      I’m simply NOT comfortable with the very WIDE range of solutions offered
      by the various computer models. I’d like a little more agreement. Looks like
      we’re not going to get that for a few more days. 😀

      1. It will be interesting to see how close to the event it will take to get accurate agreement from the models. I’m thinking it will take until Monday or 48 hrs prior to the event.

  49. I have reviewed the guidance and will not be making any adjustments at this time.

    Here’s the thing: I could end up being wrong in my analysis, but I have seen so many times in the past this setup, models all over the place, etc. … Bottom line is, we always say “models don’t do so well in this situation” for many situations. Maybe it’s an over-use of that statement, as further analysis on model performance would probably reveal minute details handled quite well in some cases and models while in other models the same setup would toss it into chaos. Sorting it all out is madness-causing, which is why I adopt the philosophy of conservative forecasting and not talking too much about something (from a public-info standpoint) until I am confident of it.

    This setup is a classic one in which the models are trying to figure out what to do with a pseudo-cut off in a weak southern jet stream and how it is going to interact with a northern stream it’s never going to completely phase with until it’s half way to Iceland. The models are expect to be all over the place with this setup. Programming of these computers that spew out scenarios aplenty, though good, is still not good enough. We cannot and never will make a perfect model. Meteorology comes into play here. I can’t look at this handful of models like I’m holding a poker hand and figure out which card to play. Sometimes you gotta just lay ’em down and play a different game.

    2. Thank you TK.

      In other words, these very good but yet imperfect models, in certain situations are extremely FRUSTRATING!

      Very nicely put TK.

      Somewhere in there among the noise is a solution.

      I’m NOT thinking an inland route or even an inside runner.
      I’m thinking a benchmark, outside the benchmark or a total MISS.

      1. Exactly. And when I say that about the models and my style of forecasting I also say that I thoroughly enjoy the model posting and speculation done by you and the others here. Please keep that up!

  50. I think Tom’s analysis is correct. November is just not a great time for snows in SNE. One thing the cold air will do the coming days is lower the ocean temperature, which may prove important in December when storms come tracking our way.

    1. We need a perfect setup to get significant snow in the Autumn. The most perfect November setups for snow in recent memory (post 1980), were November 11 1987 and November 27 2002. And both of those were fluffy/dry snows just inland from the immediate coast in eastern MA.

      1. My memory is terrible. I feel like I should be able to recall the 2002 event. 🙂 1987, forget it …. no chance. 🙂 🙂

        1. The 2002 event was the day before Thanksgiving. I remember it being in the 20s with about 5 1/2 inches of fluff followed by clearing, and the lights on all night at the football field as they cleared the field for the Woburn/Winchester game the next day, which went off without a hitch, ending in a 9-9 tie. 😉

          The 1987 event was known as the Veterans Day snowstorm. About 3-6 inches generally around the suburbs. I don’t remember the amounts elsewhere.

          2. Hmmm 2002, I don’t have a clue.

            The veteran’s day one I do remember. Even in
            JP, we had about 4 inches.

            I do remember another Thanksgiving event
            farther back than 2002. We received 6 inches
            in JP. Went to Sister-in-Law in Weymouth
            for Thanksgiving and Weymouth had about the same amount. AND it was DRY snow.

      2. There was one on Thanksgiving day that gave us some significant snow as well – I think 1990 but could have been 1989.

  51. Logan has managed to record .24 inches of precip today and I think Marshfield may have well come in close to that too.

  52. Agree to everything said by TK. And I think in no means folks don’t use meteorology but rather the fun of looking at the models.

  55. The 2002 event I remember. The snow happened the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. I also remember snow on the ground for Thanksgiving in 89 and 05.

    1. Absolutely right. I was going to mention 1989. We had a string of Thanksgivings in the 1980s to early 1990s that were fair on all the even years and foul on all the odd years. It seemed like every time the Woburn/Winchester game was a home game for us (Woburn) it was dry and sunny, and the games in Winchester were played in wet weather of some kind. That string was broken in 1992 when we had a rainy home game, and lost it 19-0. I still remember Winchester turning their white uniforms all to mud when sliding around on the then grass field after their victory. Right after that we started winning most of the games and have dominated since. Beat them 56-0 in Winchester 2 years ago. 😉 Mike Lynch from Channel 5 was NOT happy. 😛

    1. Nice and thanks. Pretty much echoing what we have been discussing
      all day.

      HOWEVER, it’s still early and with all of the model variability who knows for sure. If it stays off shore, anything can happen. We’ll see how it shakes out.

  58. The last time I remember snow for thanksgiving was 1989, it was actually the only time I remember snow, we got 6 inches in 1989 here in NA

    1. The other events were before. The 2002 event was the day before, but that was a very dry and powdery snow and easily moved, which is why the football games mostly went on as scheduled the next day.

  61. The Novembers 1987 and 2002 produced 52.6″ (1987-88) and 67.7″ (2002-03) of total snowfall at Logan. November 1989 produced 39.2″ for the 1989-90 winter season at Logan which was just a few inches below normal.

    Unlike October, accumulating snows in November usually produce snowy winters to follow. There have been a few exceptions, however. Also there have been many snowless Novembers that still produce snowy winters.

    For some reason, I do not remember the snow in November 2002, yet I remember 1987 very well.

  62. my opionion.
    rain event . An all rain event is unlikly 20%
    rain-snow event what i think will happen though only light snow fall across higher elevations of southern new england real good snowfall up in ski country.40%
    winter storm unlikly. 10%
    nothing at all out to sea. 30% chance
    what im thinking. so sadly i don’t see a good snowfall at all. 🙁

  63. Hmmm
    From the NWS:

    ON A SIDE NOTE…THE 12Z EC
    SHOWS A SECOND WAVE…A COLDER SOLUTION…WITHIN THE FLOW KEEPING
    PRECIP AROUND INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE MODELS HAS
    SHOWN THIS SO HAVE NOT INCORPORATED IT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
    TIME.

    1. The poor Euro. It’s SO unwell right now… I’m thinking of sending it a get-well-soon card.

    1. You were up there for another holiday last year was it and they had a big storm I think. That will be nice as long as your staying which I suspect you will be.

  66. How’s the NAM been performing lately inside 60 hrs? Anyone know if we can rely on that model once we get to that point?

    1. It has been fairly decent.

      The worst model of late is the ECMWF.

      Several days ago it had today as a sunny day and tomorrow as a cloudy day with PM rain. … OOPS!!!

  69. 00zgfs has what i rather have. 3-6 inches of snow for areas in northeast mass, and central mass. rather have this than the big rain stormhttp://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013112300&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=135

      1. DT’s take on the GFS….:D 😀 😀

        Wxrisk.com
        **ALERT * 0Z SATURDAY GFS run does ANOTHER MASSIVE reversal!! Takes Low ENE out to sea. Every 6 hrs this wretched Model has solution vastly different

        The 12z GFS Thursday showed a Moderate Low coming up the coast
        The 18z GFS Thursday was way out to sea
        The 0z GFS from FRIDAY morning had a HUGE STORM
        The FRIDAY 12z GFS was out to sea
        The FRIDAY 18Z GFS BIG Low up the coast

        Now this run of 0z SATURDAY GFS is out to sea

        My disdain and loathing for the GFS past 84 hrs on east coast low cannot be measured

        1. Completely disregards the verification of the European model lately. The GFS is waffling on a system just under a week away. Why is it that anybody expects a model to get it right all the time so far out?

          You know that in general I am NOT a huge GFS fan, but my goodness, it has been arriving at a good solution more often than not when it counts. We don’t have to know the answer this far in advance. 😛

          1. Makes sense. I really liked OSs day by day account of the GFS. Its more than interesting to see how theses models vacillate even less than a week out

  72. Even after .25 inches of rain yesterday at Logan, the precip deficit since September 1st is -6.63 inches. In the last 83 days, avg expected precip is 10.28 inches and Logan has recorded 3.65 inches.

    1. That qualifies as “all systems fail in a drought”. It does rain, but systems are anemic. It “looked” like it should have rained more than 1/4 inch yesterday.

      1. Seems to be the pattern for three years? running now. Some exceptions but a good portion of them from a few major events rather than consistent smaller events.

          1. No. This pattern is cyclical, like all wet/dry patterns. They come and go regardless of long term climate change. Barry Burbank coined the phrase “All systems fail in a drought” over 30 years ago.

  73. Duluth, MN : 6F, Minneapolis : 8F.

    If this overall pattern continues, then I wouldnt be surprised if in 4 or 5 weeks (once Hudson Bay refreezes), one of these cold blasts sends Logan below zero, maybe even with a day whose high doesnt get above 0F.

    Of course, in this overall pattern, 2 or 3 days after that arctic blast, it will have moderated to 42F with a SW wind ahead of the next cold front thats accompanied by some rain showers.

  74. One of our meteorologist here in CT not going with the GFS on this one. He said its meandering too much.
    Its looking more like a rainorama than anything else but still need to watch it for changes to the track which could have an enormous difference. We do need rain but unfortunately it may come on the busiest travel day of the year.
    Mark I hope you come back to the blog soon. I would to hear your thoughts on this and any upcoming storm threats throughout the winter.

  75. The upside (if there is one) of lack of rain is that we have day after day of beautiful weather. I’m having coffee by the window listening to instrumental Christmas songs. Its 38.8 with a 28 DP and 33 wind chill. A soft breeze and pure blue sky.

  76. Well, the 06Z GFS is still off shore and mostly OTS.
    Here’s a peek:
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=114

    Here are the CMC ensembles which are all over the place:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=108

    The Euro is shown down the coast and in the next frame it has rocketed way
    North of area. Need to look at Wundermap. I can say this, it was WARM

  78. There is something funky with the Wundermap.
    It will look normal one frame, then the next frame has an explosion
    of precipitation only to have it back to normal the next frame.

    The best I can tell from the Euro is that it comes by our area
    more as an open wave and over us or just to the West of us.
    😀

    1. Wundermap has been doing that for a while. Its almost like it randomly swiches to total precip then back to current.

  79. Ok, at this time here is the Score Card (without a couple):

    OTS or mostly OTS

    GFS
    NAVGEM

    Inside Runner

    EURO
    CMC
    FIM
    UKMET
    DGEX (NAM)

    I’m beginning to think we are looking at a HUGE Rainorama in these parts courtesy
    of a decent moisture laden system passing just to our West or right over us. 😀 😀 😀
    I’m seeing signs of good phasing with most of these models.

    With all seriousness, I wouldn’t bet my life on the GFS right now, would you?

    I have to say, this has been one of the MORE interesting scenarios to watch.
    I wonder if there isn’t a big surprise awaiting us yet. 😀

  84. The 12z GFS is at 72 hrs, but certainly the two streams look out of phase. The northern stream, with a new batch of cold air seems to be further ahead (more east in its placement) of the southern stream disturbance and thus, my guess would be that the future panels are going to be a graze at most or OTS.

    Based on everything seen the last 2-3 months, thats why I think the GFS does make the most sense.

  85. And ….. If one follows the origination of the next northern stream disturbance that doesnt phase with the southern stream, the GFS suggests that its currently about to move into southeast most Alaska and sure enough, it does appear to be stormy up in that region.

    So, all the pieces should now be over land and I think the models will begin to show concensus going forward. I’m hypothesizing that they’ll move a lot closer to the GFS idea.

    1. If that does occur, i think going forward into this winter, we should start to put more weight into the medium range analysis of the GFS

      1. Yes.

        Crazy theory ….. Perhaps there’s nothing wrong at all with the EURO. If we think about where its earned its meteorological respect (Sandy, Nemo and its general accuracy the last many years), a lot of those systems have been southern stream or southern latitude entities.

        But, this pattern, I think is more northern latitude depenedent/dominant, and perhaps thats a weakness of the EURO. Now, I know that sounds crazy given that EUROPE is at higher latitudes than the US, however, they are surrounded or proceeded by the ocean at higher latitides, whereas, upstream of the US at higher latitudes is a lot of land and usually about 3-4 days of land in weather terms of disturbances having to tranverse all of that land. Maybe the EURO handles sensible weather better when its entities are closer to or over the ocean.

        Again, just a crazy theory. 🙂

  86. Well now thats odd. GFS is not seeing what the euro had been seeing, 2 low pressure areas one after the other. But show both being shunted east with NO precip whatsoever!

  87. WTF………….

    The GFS is getting to be a REAL OUTLIER…

    Compare the 12Z runs of the NAM and the GFS.

    GFS, no phasing. NAM, complete phasing.

    GFS a complete MISS.
    NAM destined to be a potent INSIDE RUNNER

    I don’t get it.

    Look at that GFS, it develops one system and move it out then PARKS
    the BIG OLE COLD HIGH over us forcing the next system out as well.

    Now the Euro did hint at another hang back system.

    WHAT IF, it is something in the middle.

    1st one system does develop and move up or out taking the warmth with it.
    Then system #2 develops and cranks up and heads into the really COLD Air parked
    up here. IS this scenario possible at all.

    Dying to see 12Z runs of Euro, CMC and UKMET along with FIM

  88. 12Z Canadian, INSIDE RUNNER through New York State!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&hh=096

    12Z UKMET, more of a coastal Hugger

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096

    12Z NAVGEm, OTS

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_thk_108.gif

    So, What is what????

    Who knows. I just can’t see this being an OTS solution.

  89. Welcome to confusion of models down to the last minute when trying to handle a Southwest pseudo-cutoff and its potential phasing (or not) with the northern stream.

    🙂

    1. Yes, but with the technology available today, I just can’t fathom how the
      algorithms can’t be better than they are. Believe me I understand HOW
      incredibly complicated they are and then some. It’s truly amazing the models work as well as they do. I just want to see some improvements to them. 😀

      Given all of that, I’m guessing that at least one of these models is
      close to the actual solution.

      I’m just not buying into it being the GFS. (Not unless someone can confirm
      the it has undergone MAJOR enhancements. Not that piece of garbage we’ve been dealing with. No way that one can be right on this! 😀 :D)

    2. LOL ! See, model agreement setting in. 🙂

      Love the lowest pressure that extends from Philadelphia to about Raleigh, NC. About what ….. 400 mile center of low pressure ….. Why not ?

  91. I will say, for those who think the GFS has this one, how do u explain the major differences between its op runs and ensemble mean? Op runs have been mostly offshore but the ensembles show basically what all other models have shown.

  93. Perhaps this is when some TV meteorologist should have the confidence to write “I dont know yet” on their 7 day forecast under Wednesday.

    Better than having shown for 4 straight days rain or snow next Wednesday on one of the busiest travel days of the year …… and then all of a sudden Tuesday have to say its going to be partly sunny on Wednesday.

  96. RAINORAMA and not a WINTRYORAMA should this storm system affect us from everything I am seeing right now.
    I am not disappointed if this ends up being a rain maker since its November. From December through March hopefully more snoworama’s than rainorama’s.

  97. Yet, The FIM is OTS, with the 2nd hang back low:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_zeus/2013112312/236/3hap_sfc_f108.png

    And of course, that 2nd low goes OTS.

    Let me check on this model.

    NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Model Prediction Post Processor
    Earth System Research Laboratory
    F;ow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model (FIM)

    A unique combination of 3 numerical design features

    Icosahedral horizontal grid, mostly hexagons except for 12 pentagons (“I” in FIM)
    Isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate, adaptive, concentrates around frontal
    zones, tropopause, similar to RUC model (“F” for Flow-following in FIM)
    Finite-volume horizontal transport (Also under “F”, for “finite-volume” in FIM)

    A recent 1-year retrospective run was completed, showing significant improvement for FIM over GFS mainly in the 6-10-day forecast range, and very good hurricane track forecast skill

    Conclusion, BTSOOM!!!!

  99. I think this is the first time I could remember a Red Flag Warning being issued during the month of November. Its up tomorrow for the southern four counties of CT as well as the NYC area.

    1. If we TOSS the NAVGEM, JMA, and UKMET, we get 2 models, GFS and FIM for OTS and 3 models, EURO, CMC and NAM for an Inside Runner.

      Based on my experience with these models, I’d STILL LEAN TOWARDS AN
      INSIDE RUNNER.

      Can’t wait to see what ultimately shakes out of this one. OH, so interesting. 😀

      1. FROM WXRISK.COM

        *** VERY IMPORTANT STATEMENT FROM WXRISK COMING IN 15 MINUTES ABOUT TODAYS MODELS ..

        took some time to get out of the office.. and of course when I do all hell breaks lose

        the 12z SATURDAY GFS is a fooking nightmare. it has 2 lows.. ( which others have as well.). The first one moves off the Middle Atlantic Coast and ignores the r New England area completely and brings the lower Middle Atlantic some rain. BUT the 12z GFS delays the 2nd Low which allows for the arctic HIGH to build a new surge of cold air into New England anf the Middle Atlantic. The second low comes north on Thanksgiving Day which brings a substantial snowstorm to portions of North Carolina and Virginia then hesads out to sea.

        As much as I would love to see a snowstorm in Virginia and North Carolina from the 2nd Low n thanksgiving– even though that is what the12zGFS is showing– I cannot in good conscience support this ridiculous idea. Shortly Iwll go to a lot more detail but keep in mind that this is the 8 consecutive model run of the operational
        GFS and every single run has been vastly different from anything else.

        The midday European model not only is NOT out to sea but it is so far inland that it drives extremely MILD temperatures during the r height of the storms as far north as Boston and New York City. It’s a huge system with a tremendous a matter rain on the coast and big snows and the mountains. Whether the European model is overdone or roo far inland is still of course amount of water and certainty.

        But at least the damn European model has CONSISTENCY ith its solutions something the wretchedly awful GFS seems utterly incapable of.

    1. WILL they hold together as they make the trek Eastward? That is the question.

      Looks to be what 6-8 hours away or so?

  102. The 12z EURO’s low pressure is so elongated. I’m trying to think back to other previous phasing situations along the east coast and I dont recall seeing such elongated low pressure, but rather compact low pressure. It makes me think that the model is hinting at an initial attempt at phasing (the northern part of the elongation) that cant quite take place because the northern branch is too separate from the southern branch. Thus, it continues to keep a piece of the southern disturbance separate and thus it shows it as this elongated low pressure system.

    I just dont buy an inside runner. I’ll be all wet when it pours Wednesday :), however, I’m in the GFS camp and think phasing will be minimal.

    It is fun though to see all the models with their varied solutions and interpretations of the atmosphere.

    1. Thanks Tom. I respect your thoughts on this. I don’t happen to agree this time, but you laid it out well.

      I just think complete phasing will occur. I would expect a solution along the lines of the CMC or NAM with the Euro blended in.

      We shall see.

      AND it is truly interesting to watch this unfold.

    2. Partial phasing has occurred many times. I have a strong feeling regardless of the eventual track, we get hosed on precip. amounts again and if the inside solution comes to be it’s west of our area that gets the copious QP, and if it’s the more eastern track, the main moisture channel will set up just E of CC & the islands. That’s still a little more detailed than I like to get at this point.

  103. 18Z GFS rolling. I have to leave the house before It get far enough along.
    W0n’t be back till 11PM or so. 😀 also waiting on 18Z DGEX.

      1. It must look real pretty! I just love sparkle of Christmas lights – both inside and outside the home 🙂 add a little snow, and you’ve got “perfect”!

      2. I’m seeing a lot of stuff going up this year before thanksgiving, that’s because it’s a week later this year. We hung wreaths and put up trees outside at work today. I think the holiday being a week late a lot of people feeling rushed.

    1. I’m glad we won’t be dealing with snow for the holiday, just to many people out traveling although rain won’t help it’s still better than driving in snow to your destination. And of course as always this time of year we have the added worry with the people on the road all juiced up.

    2. Oh well. That’ll be another tally for me in the wrong column. 🙂

      Lets see ….. Thats 28 correct and …… 97 x 14 squared ….. almost have it here ………………. 19,825 wrong.

      1. Lol, tomorrow’s run will be ack out to sea. Not convinced GFS has been wrong with this one, but also not read to say Euro is King again 🙂

  112. Today’s AccuWeather Trvia Quiz. (weather??!!)

    Which of the following is NOT a real town?
    A. Hailstone, UT
    B. Snowflake, AZ
    C. Weathervane, VT
    D. Frostproof, FL

    Answer later today. I managed to get this wrong.

    1. All :).

      Ok I’ll go with D.

      Glad you arrived hime safely, longshot. I had heard rt 2 in Fitchburg was closed in addition to the problems in S NH

    1. I cant answer, I have a negative score already ………

      The EURO now must have full phasing, thats a tremendous pressure fall.

    2. LOL!!!
      Feeling like January out there today. Rainorama looking more and more likely for the busiest travel day of the year.
      Hopefully we get a good soaking since we need the rain even though the timing is terrible for the rainfall.
      For trivia I will go with D.

  117. What are chances of a 1 – 2 punch, with the later storm being cold enough for snow? Henry Margusity claims the GFS continues to split the storm.

  118. Morning All,

    Hmm the 0Z Euro has shift back a bit to the East, but still remains a clear
    Inside runner:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096

    0Z Canadian holds true with Inside Runner:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=084

    0Z UKMET has an inside Runner:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096

    06Z GFS has sort of a benchmark, but farily warm system:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=084&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    So even the GFS has come around, howeverm, the GFS still has a hang back system down South, that stays OTS well to our South.

    Now I’ll take a look at the NAM and FIM, since it only allows 4 links. 😀

  119. 06Z NAM looks to be an inside runner as well:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=084&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    0Z FIM is inside the benchmark:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2013112400/236/3hap_sfc_f090.png

    0Z NAVGEM is approximately a Benchmark:

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_thk_84.gif

    the 0Z JMA is only available through 72 hours and it looks to be destined for
    an inside runner OR perhaps close to a benchmark, just by extrapolating.

    Even it this system were a benchmark system, still too WARM at 850MB.
    Rainorama is a coming. 😀 😀 😀

  120. Morning all!

    Why did I hold out? Because of the Euro’s recent bad record. Looks like it may be breaking out of its slump (with the help of other models obviously – nothing like peer support!).

    Now that the hard-to-trust but recently-doing-ok GFS is closer to all the others, I’m ready to move away from the further E scenario. HOWEVER, if you love snow and are in eastern MA don’t get your hopes up.

    ALSO, don’t get your hopes up that this will do much to alleviate the precipitation deficit. All models will over-forecast precipitation amounts.

    Update coming soon!

  121. Here’s your 12Z NAM at 988 mb:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013112412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=081

    Look at some wind gut maps:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013112412&time=INSTANT&var=GUST&hour=081

    Looks to be a pretty WINDY DAY in addition to the RAIN.

    If I am reading this correctly, that is wind gusts to 60MPH over Eastern MA and
    70MPH Cape and Islands. We’ll have to keep an eye on that as there may have
    to be a WOODSHILL WIND Advisory issued. 😀 😀

    1. There will be a very strong high in the Upper Plains too. If it deepens enough there will be a very tight pressure gradient. Probably windy on Thanksgiving too.

  122. From WBZ

    That moisture will translate up the east coast Tuesday afternoon, arriving as showers to southern New England by Tuesday evening. Steady rain will fill in overnight, falling heavily at times during the day Wednesday. An early estimate shows many of us could receive between 1”-3” of rain through Wednesday – which will alleviate moderate drought conditions in eastern MA and southeast NH.

    While the track of the storm is still somewhat uncertain at this time, this does look like a mainly wet, not white event for our area (although there will be accumulating snow on the Northwest fringe of the storm). The wind will also be a concern with gusts over 40 mph along the south coast and Cape Cod.

    The system pulls away from New England on Thanksgiving, leaving cold air but increasing sunshine in its wake. Stay tuned to WBZ for the very latest on this storm over the next few days.

    -Danielle

        1. US National Weather Service Boston MA
          Boston out of the running for setting a new record cold high temperature for today. Record is 29 set in 1936. High today 31 at 00:28.

          1. US National Weather Service Boston MA
            High temps so far today at our local climate sites: BOS 31 at 00:28, ORH 24 at 00:15, PVD 31 at 00:08 and BDL 28 at 00:19.

  124. Look ahead, from the EURO at 240 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013112400&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    With this upper air set up:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013112400&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

    And this 850MB profile:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013112400&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=240

    I would like to see colder temperatures at 850MB, but still, it at least looks
    interesting. 😀

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