The Week Ahead

111 Comments

7:18AM

This is basically a re-issue of the previous discussion edited for time period and with a few tweaks to the forecast portion.

High pressure will be in control today, cold air still in place, but with less wind than we had on Sunday, resulting in a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week. This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing just west of southeastern New England during the day Wednesday with possibly a second center passing overhead in the evening. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the storm comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing lows Wednesday night may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. We’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather. A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Periods of rain, may end as mix or brief snow at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to possibly over 60 through midday early afternoon before falling back to the 30s evening.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25.  Highs 35-45.

111 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  7. Thanks for the update TK.

    Everything appears to be on track for Wednesday. No surprises with the latest runs. 😀

    re: the GAME

    WOW! WOW! and WOW!

    My wife and I did not give up at the Half. We both had a feeling.

    Manning simply cannot play in the Cold.

    Please, please, please GET RID OF RIDLEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. I was wondering where you were OS and I will be absolutely amazed if they don’t get rid of Ridley. AND Bolden is GREAT. Not only can’t Manning throw in cold but his strength in the wind doesn’t compare to Brandy. You just cannot give up on this team. I still shake my head at fans that sell them short knowing their record with the far too many bad breaks they’ve had. Although, we really need to get rid of the bad ref calls.

      1. To be honest, last night, we got away with as many as they did, so I really think it evened out last night. No complaints from me.

        re: Manning
        I see what you mean, however, he made a few unbelievably
        perfect throws into that wind. He just cannot do it consistently
        in the very cold weather. Brady has a far superior record in
        bad weather. Take 1/2 the games Manning played in the dome
        and have them played outdoors and see what he stats would have been. 😀 😀 😀

        1. So true and even with perfect throws, he just doesn’t have the throwing strength of Brady. And you are right, they got away with a few so I won’t complain.

        2. His surgery has reduced his strength. Always had if before the procedure but he has lost velocity since the surgery.

  8. Totals I have for snow are below. We had 14 more last year. I wonder if Keith and Ace and Captain are reading – and many of the others. Sorry, my memory is short so I can only retain a few names between reading them and posting here 😕

    Did I miss anyone?

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    Old Salty 28.5
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4

    1. GFS similar:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013112506&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=054

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013112506&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=057

      Is this possible? I don’t hear of ANY METS talking about extreme winds
      for Wednesday. This is two (2) models predicting wind gusts to 60+ MPH
      over Eastern and Southeastern sections.

      What do we do, assume they are over cooked and take 2/3 of those values
      and go with gusts to 40-50+ mph?

      TK what is real in this situation.

      Many thanks

      1. JR mentioned extreme winds this morning. All I could think of was power failures with refrigerators full of Thanksgiving food. I’m already devising a plan B in my head.

    1. Very nice, Hadi. I think no matter what team you were hoping would win, you couldn’t say it was not an incredible game. Maybe not as incredible for Denver fans as New England but still…….what a game!

      1. Is anyone else exhausted (its worth it) ? It took me a good 2 hrs to calm down after the game and fall asleep.

        I think state-wide, there should have been a 2 hr delay in all school and business related openings. 🙂 🙂

        1. I’m seeing double. Good thing I’m not working but I can’t even get up the energy to prepare for Thursday’s dinner. It took me about 2 hours also. And then I was wide awake again at 5:00………..And they should just cancel school for the week IMHO 🙂

  11. notice how quiet this blog has gotten since the snow threat has been killed.
    Lot to still look at. but first how about those patriots greates comeback in patriots history.
    this storm looks to be very warm some models even saying humid and in the 60s.
    many models are showing very strong winds. (some of wich i think are over done.) but none the less high wind warnings would likly happen. thought it won’t be a cold wind. Over done precipitation. This storm is basically fitting what the pattern has been like for the past few months with the storm tracking to our west.

    1. Kinda like the right side of a hurricane? Strongest winds, but, not as much rain. Hopefully we get some beneficial rains out of this.

  14. I feel bad for the fair weather fans that left early last night, lol those people don’t understand the game of football, if they did, they obviously don’t know how football can go. I’m sure there not happy today lol

    1. It’s the 2nd time a lot of fans left only for historic comebacks that you only see once or twice a lifetime,

      1. I wonder if many left because of the cold as well. Mac works with a woman who has season tickets. She said the only part of her that is not protected well is her eyes and she wears goggles when it is really bad. But she also said that no matter how hard she tries, she is chilled for quite a while after when it is extreme. I’ll be interested to know if she stayed for the entire game.

        1. I stayed for the entire game,, outside!! Anyone that left 1) were either not prepared or 2) fair weather fans 🙂

          1. Or just not Charlie 😉

            Hint – you know leaving doesn’t mean they were not still listening to the game and cheering for their team 😆

              1. I agree about the importance of being there, Charlie. And I agree there are many fair weather fans. I think I said – or alluded to – that earlier. Boston is known for fair weather fans. It was the leaving that I didn’t agree with. Many literally cannot tolerate the cold – no matter how well prepared. Some may have been fair weather fans and some may have had very ligit reasons for leaving.

  16. Ok than on the weather front it sure feels like January outside. Oldsalty did you find out more info on the wind for Thursday.

    1. Is it for Wednesday or Thursday? Fuzzy today so may be wrong but I thought it was Tues night into Wed day. Either way, it will not be good travel weather.

  17. I’m in Nashville, TN for a job interview and fly home tomorrow night (arriving back in New England at 11:00pm). TK, et. al, do you think I’ll have any delays getting back home? I want this job, but to be frank, I’m quite homesick, and I can’t wait to see my family and sleep in my bed. Heard that the winds there created many power outages – hope everyone’s doing well! It’s cold here – the people aren’t used to it, and the pansies planted at the airport didn’t look too happy, though were pretty.

    2. I think the worst of it will be Wednesday AM, especially the Winds.
      I think you’ll be fine Tuesday evening.

      1. Thanks, everyone – it’s the opportunity of a lifetime – it snowed here today, not even really a dusting and people make such a big deal out of it, as if it was a 6-12″ storm at home. I was on the highway heading back to my hotel after touring several towns and you’d think the apocalypse happened! It was NUTS! The snow didn’t even stick to the roads!

        I just hope I have no delays – I change planes at La Guardia, and from there to Manchester is an hour flight. This trip has made me realize just how much I love New England, and even though I’ve been gone only 3 days, I’m so homesick! I’ve travelled all over the country and Canada and have never felt this way before. I guess the reality of my time here being the possibility of permanence scares the poopies out of me.

    1. I’m not sure how much trust to give these models, but that is two (2) of
      them that want to CROAK us with WINDS Wednesday AM. IF this
      comes to be, they WILL cause Damage. I’m going to see what I can find
      from other models, if anything. 😀

      1. Wundermap for the Euro shows the following SUSTAINED WINDS. Did not give me gusts.

        Inland: 18 mph.
        Coast: 28 mph
        Cape: 42 mph

        To me the EURO winds are UNDERDONE.

        What would the gusts be with these sustained?
        25-30ish inland
        40-45 coast
        55-60 Cape?

        1. FIM is similar to Euro for winds.

          IT shows 10M winds of about 28 mph near the coast
          to approaching 50mph on the outer Cape. Again, does
          not show gusts.

          1. Here is the NWS take on the winds for Wednesday:

            WIND WILL BE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. THE STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST AND
            NORTH WILL PLACE A LEAST A PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A STRONG
            SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 60-70 KNOT JET AT
            925- 950 MB…WHICH COULD BE TAPPED FOR 35-45 KNOT/40-50 MPH WIND
            GUSTS DURING WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED WOULD
            BE RI AND EASTERN MASS…BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FARTHER WEST
            COULD LITERALLY STICK UP INTO THESE WINDS. THIS TOO WILL NEED TO
            BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL ADVISORY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
            EVENT.

  20. Charlie, re: Game

    You are soooooo Right about the Fair Weather Friends.

    I HAVE been guilty of just that on occasions, BUT NOT LAST NIGHT!!
    My wife and I hung in there. Neither of us said anything to each other as
    we did NOT want to jinx anything, but each of us expected some sort of
    response from the Patriots in the 2nd half, not necessarily that they would
    come back and win, but SOMETHING worth watching. And look what happened.

    Tell me who is BEST, Brady or Manning? I think there is ONE and ONLY one
    Answer to that question!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    😀 😀 😀

    2. I’m the type that stays sometimes well after the games done, I can always tell how invested the person is when I’m there, and at these games, the Patriots need all the support they can get,, BB candidate for coach of yr?

  24. OS – by eastern MA, do they mean along the coast or inland eastern. I wish they would be more specific but perhaps at this point that isn’t possible.

    1. Vicki,

      If you look at the NAM and GFS Maps, the 60+ extends inland to WEST of Worcester.

      However, if you look at the CMC, FIM and Euro, the highest winds are
      along the immediate coast, like extending only a few miles inland. So I’m not
      sure.

      BUT….looking at the setup, looks to me that HIGH winds are likely all
      the way to Worcester. 😀 😀

      1. Thanks, OS. I appreciate the explanation. It was too hard to see on my phone 🙁 That’s pretty far in with up to 60 mph. And I wonder with the high winds this past weekend if some branches were compromised and will come down easier. We sure have had a number of storms over the last year or so – or just plain regular days – with high winds.

  25. Despite what some of these models are spitting out, the NWS is only
    indicating wind gusts of 40-50 mph. I suppose I shouldn’t say Only, but
    to me 40-50 mph doesn’t mean a thing. You start saying 60 mph, and you have
    my attention. 😀

    1. Absolutely,

      I do believe that yesterday/this morning was the coldest November
      Day in my life time. There was one day on 11/29 or 11/30 in the 60s
      that was cold. Day time high was 32 or a bit lower, but I don’t remember
      the low temperature. So that would be the only other time I can remember
      that would rival it.

    2. It really is deepening the low and quickly …….

      Sometimes, that warm sector just struggles to push well inland…..it will be interesting to see how far west of Worcester ends up in it. For sure, eastern Mass will and I’d assume the winds will be strong out of the South. I’m ready for a handful of hours in the 60s.

    3. Wow – I’m going to have to get really serious about a plan B. It’ll be tough with power outages when everyone has fully stocked refrigerators.

      1. We’re actually going out for dinner with Daughter and Son-In-Law. I just hope the restaurant doesn’t lose power. They’d
        never tell us and we’ll all get sick! 😀

  28. Like Vicki said, if the power goes out and people have a lot of food in the refrigerator it will be tough. I am planning to get a turkey breast tomorrow amongst other things. With a high wind watch and the possibility of a power outage – I’m not sure what to do.

    We need the rain – but not the wind.

    1. Hi rainshine. We will get out our two big coolers out. We always use one for anything that doesn’t fit in fridge now that the pre thanksgiving weather isn’t cold enough any more to keep our porch cold enough for food. We will cook turkey on grill IF it fits.

  30. Hopefully we could get a widespread 1-2 inches of rain which will certainly help with the dry conditions across the region.
    The winds unfortunatley we don’t need and I would not be surprised if some areas get upgraded to a high wind warning based on some of the model data showing some pretty impressive wind gusts.
    Threat Level Index with this storm system.
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Elevated

    1. It shall be interesting to see if these WIND charts show a decrease or increase
      with subsequent runs.

      I’d be very surprised to see wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
      40-50 mph is probably more realistic. We shall see. 😀

  33. I think we have a decent dose of rain on the way, I think a lot of us see around 2 inches w/ a few spots around 3 inches on Wednesday. This 1 storm could erase half the deficit, and only be down 3-4 inches since July. Could be 65 degrees on Wed if I’m reading the gfs correctly.

  34. props to Hadi for reminding me to post numbers.

    Vicki, I imagine you’re still our scribe? Been so busy at work, no time for goofing around with you guys. ughhhh!

    Here it is:

    Boston 27.7″
    Worcester 38.4″

    I’m thinking cold and dry winter. I’m almost tempted to go even less on the snow but I don’t want you guys throwing rotten eggs at me. Feels like the 1980-81 winter coming this year….cold and dry.

    1. Retrac,

      Great hearing from you again. Will you be joining us again for the
      Winter? Sure hope so.

      😀 😀

    2. Thanks retrac. I have your total although we are just doing Boston. Interesting that today I was wondering if we should add a location. And its great to see you here 🙂

  35. Hmmmm

    NO ONE has even hinted at this. The SPC does not have any severe probabilities up
    for this event in our area. BUT….with the intense wind and warm moist air, it will be almost like a hurricane, so the thought occurred to me that hey, what about some
    spin up tornadoes????

    Take a look at this HELICTIY chart. I’ve never seen values this high before:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013112515/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    I just wonder if something doesn’t come out from the SPC.

    Thoughts?

    1. You could see how tightly wound up that low pressure center is as it goes west of us. I COULD see a wind damage threat with this.

  36. Temps tonight actually won’t get much colder, a matter of fact temps will be above freezing early tomorrow morning, on there way to 50 degrees.

    1. Got it. Well added to Dropbox version. Now have to transfer to master :). I’ll see how this works. You might all fire me as record keeper 😉

  39. From NWS:

    SOUNDINGS DUE SUPPORT SOME MOIST-
    ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND PRECIP DRAG MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. THEREFORE…AT LEAST SOME LARGE FRACTION OF THESE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE OBSERVED. FOR NOW…WILL LEAN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS WHICH SUPPORTS A HIGH WIND WATCH…WHICH WE WILL ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE. HELD OFF ON WESTERN ZONES…BUT THESE TOO MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE LLJ MAKES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FURTHER W.

      1. Thank you for the great updates OS. Its more than appreciated with a holiday weekend coming up.

        As an aside I notice NWS has adopted woodshill use of the word potential. 😉

    2. I don’t agree with the naming most of the ones they named last year, but this is impacting many from when it entered the west with the flooding rains until it exits here with the damaging wind and rain. This one may be justified somewhat, we will see how it plays out.

      On another note, all is well with Boston sports. Bruins OT win against Pittsburgh, Celtics over Charlotte and I think we all mentioned a Pats OT win :).

  41. Winds gusting that strong COULD create power issues. I would not be surprised to see some areas of SNE get upgraded to a high wind warning.
    Thanks for posting those helicity values earlier Old Salty. This COULD be a wind damage threat and you could see on that link how tightly wound that low pressure center is west of SNE.

  42. Busy day! It was time to take my mom shopping for the Thanksgiving feast. So forgive me if I missed any questions above. Please bring it to my attention. 🙂

  44. We need the rain as it should be here by 8pm tonight. As far as the wind goes I had thought I heard Friday would be the worst of it.

  45. Looking ahead into early December, the Arctic Oscillation heads for the positive phase, the NAO remains neutral …… translation = I think the cold air is in temporary retreat.

    Perhaps this will allow arctic air to reload at very high latitudes and perhaps a teleconnection change later in the month could release it southward in time for the Holidays.

  47. Flurries here this morning – very pretty. JR had winds at 30-45 for tomorrow. Not sure if they have decreased or if he’s being conservative.

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