Winding Wind-Down

231 Comments

7:07PM

The final days of December, and of the year 2013, will feature some changing weather, but not likely any major storms, and some varying temperatures including some very cold air. As 2014 gets underway, we’ll have to watch for a little New Year’s Day snow.

Since there is some model uncertainty with the passage of storm systems, this forecast will be worded cautiously and simply, with low to moderate confidence, and will be fine-tuned over time.

Thursday, a weak area of low pressure will move in from the west and start to redevelop off the coast. Enough mild air should work in for mix to rain over the South Coast of MA and RI, Cape Cod, and the South Shore of MA. Elsewhere, some snow is expected, especially from late morning into late afternoon, with minor accumulations at best.

Friday will be governed by an area of high pressure that will bring dry and chilly weather.

Cloudiness is expected Saturday as warm air comes in at high levels and it also warms somewhat at the surface.

By Sunday, a low pressure area will track up along or just off the Northeast Coast, but with mild air in place, rain is more likely than snow. The timing of the precipitation will depend on the speed of the low pressure area. Not sure how this works out just yet.

The final 2 days of 2013 Monday-Tuesday look quite cold with a blast of Arctic Air. More details to come about the weather for New Year’s Eve, which looks quite cold.

The first day of 2014 looks like it may be a bit white as a clipper system brings a chance of snow.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 10-18. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Partial sun eastern MA morning, otherwise mainly cloudy. A period of precipitation late morning through late afternoon, mainly snow NW of Boston, mix/rain to the southeast with greatest rain threat South Coast of MA/RI, Cape Cod, and South Shore of MA. Snow accumulation NW of Boston generally less than 1 inch but a few areas of 1-2 inches possible. Highs 30-35 NW of Boston, 35-40 elsewhere. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Slow clearing. Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 20-25. Wind variable shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain, mix far inland. Low 33. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Temperature falls to 20s.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

231 thoughts on “Winding Wind-Down”

  2. Thanks TK. Merry Xmas once again to all!!

    Boy am I exhausted!! Kids are asleep and we are sitting down to eat 🙂

  5. Thanks as always TK and Merry Christmas to everyone!

    TK – I would like to suggest that you include the city of Boston itself in your forecasts from now on. “NW of Boston”, “SE of Boston”, South Shore, etc. means nothing to me since Logan and most of the city (and even Cambridge to an extent) is always “right on the edge” of whatever conditions occur (precip type, fronts, etc.).

    For example, in terms of tomorrow’s (Thursday’s) event, which side will Boston be on? The rainy or the snowy side…or both?

        1. Sometimes in the summer, there is a sea breeze on Boston Common while a land breeze in the Public Garden. I have actually felt the difference. 😉

  9. TK,

    For the potential over the weekend…Do you think Boston will see any snow or just plain rain? I know its a 4-5 days out but from looking at the GFS and Euro just looks like it will rain around these parts.

  11. hoping that the sunday event moves to either saturday or monday either one since im having a party that day.

  12. Interesting with such a track this late into december and it’s rain. Benchmark track but way too warm out ahead of the system.

  14. Got to watch for any shifts later Sunday Sunday night with that POTENTIAL storm as that will make a huge difference. Still looks like a rainorama but a lot could change between now and then. Hoping this storm will trend colder but not putting a lot of stock in that.

    1. It’s going to be a mild weekend in the mid 40s so no snow around here for that one. New Year’s Eve looking so far very cold but dry but still early as that can change.

  15. Good morning all.
    Hope all had a wonderful Holiday.

    re: today
    HO-HUM. YAWN….

    Re: Sunday/Sunday Night
    NAM shows an incredibily WARM system, however, the GFS
    shows a MUCH COLDER system, although still a good slug of rain for Boston, South.

    Here is a map of 10M temperatures at the height of storm:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    And 850MB map at same time:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    This would indicate to me that Sleet and/or freezing rain may be in the equation????

    1. I hope not OS. Id rather have rain than sleet/frz rain. Here’s hoping for the trend colder. I’d actually be ok with this scenerio if it got some appreciable snow up to the ski areas. They took a hit with the warm spell, esp areas in VT.

    2. On the Other Hand, there is the Euro:

      Here’s the surface map

      http://i.imgur.com/Yz1YBdi.jpg?1

      Here’s the 850MB map. Notice 850MB temps at Boston about 0 to -2 C. 😀 😀
      Doesn’t guarantee snow, but it DOES help the cause.

      http://postimg.org/image/6hwtninzd/

      So, “Could” it still snow with this next system? IMHO, YES!
      Doesn’t mean it will, just that all is not totally lost just yet.

      IF 12Z Euro is still on track, we shall see.

      Will look at a few others. 😀

  16. Hope everyone had a good Christmas! Back to the grind unfortunately. Yearning for the days when I had the week between xmas and new years off.

    Boy, our snow chances around here are starting to look bleak at best. What happened to the stormy pattern? Just our luck we get a benchmark storm and its RAIN (although the 6Z GFS gives us some hope, but one should never count on the 6Z), and the 1/3 – 1/5 time period looks like the PV will crush any storm movement up the coast 🙁

  17. Happy day after Christmas. As much as I enjoy the journey of the Magi and the celebration of the new year, I’m sad to have Christmas Day over. Mac and I both have the day off so that makes it a bit easier.

    Its snowing here. Its an amazingly fine snow….so fine you can barely see it

  18. It also snow very fine out my window in CT. This is not going to be much other than a reminder it is winter.
    The Sunday system UGH meter at a 5 right now.

  19. Hope everyone had a pleasant Christmas. Carrying on the European tradition of a “second” day of Christmas, I always take Boxing Day off. I think the U.S. is the only country I know of (with a Judeo-Christian tradition) that does not have a “second” day of Christmas.

    Snowing where I am: 4 miles north of Norwich, Vermont, at an elevation of about 900 feet. Would not be surprised if the mountains got several inches of snow, while the towns and valleys got very little.

    Looking ahead at Boston’s weather the pattern doesn’t show signs of breaking down. When there’s precipitation it’s generally rain. Lots of southeast wind. Followed by periods of real cold and then warm-ups (thaws). The weekend thaw won’t be nearly as dramatic as last weekend, but again don’t underestimate the temps later this week (Saturday). I think 44 is too low for Boston. 45-50 would be my guess.

  20. OK, the plot thickens.

    I have checked out the high resolution 15KM FIM Model.

    Surface:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013122600/236/3hap_sfc_f102.png

    850MB:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013122600/236/temp_850_f102.png

    Boston area is right on the hairy edge for this event.

    2M temperature in the 30s with 20s just to the North:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013122600/236/temp_2m_f102.png

    And here are the 10M Winds. This system couldn’t be in a much better position. 😀 😀

    WILL it be cold enough? that is the question???

  21. To me its 50 50 and could swing in either direction which is why I am going with a 5 on the UGH meter.
    If there could just be a cold high to the north to drain down the cold air with the track right now a good one for wintry precipitation for a good part of SNE.

      1. I second that. I’m pretending it doesn’t exist. And since that isn’t working very well We are driving to formaggio kitchen in Cambridge for some cheese 🙂

      1. I would not go by what nam at all either. Clearly the nam has not been the go to model unless you want false information.

  25. Hey guys, I agree with you. The NAM has been pretty Pukey so far this year.
    Plus, it’s 84 hours out, not the NAM’s wheelhouse. 😀

    Look, the Euro and the FIM are #1 and #2 in TK’s eyes. Guess what, they BOTH
    have the coldest 2 solutions of all the models.

    Here’s the score card:

    NAM => WARM
    CMC => WARM
    UKMET => WARM

    GFS => COLDER than above, but not quite

    FIM => COLDER, still
    EURO => COLDEST of all of them

    Even with the colder solutions, there could still be boundary layer issues with
    temperatures in the mid 30s. ALSO, even though the 850MB temperatures may
    support SNOW with both the Euro and FIM, we don’t know what the whole column
    looks like. it could be like 29F at 5,000 feet and be 33 or 34F at 4,000 feet and be in the mid 30’s all the way down from there. Guess what, that would be a rain scenario.

    Does anyone have specific EURO info on what the whole column would look like
    during the height of Sunday’s system??

    Many thanks

        1. No one ever said anything about “MUCH”. 😀 😀

          We’ll enjoy whatever it is we get. 😀

          I’m more concerned with Sunday.

            1. That doesn’t matter. It will be cold enough above and when precipitation starts, surface will cool. It’s a question of How cold it is above and how much the surface cools. Wind direction will be good.

              Both Euro and FIM call for surface temperature in the 30s.

              IF it does end up snowing, it’s going to be one of those really close situations.

              Could easily be a COLD RAIN.

              I really want to see 12Z Euro and FIM runs.

  27. The NAM over does everything when it comes to CAPE with thunderstorms, snowfall amounts, and temperatures. Take what is says and cut it and half with everything and then its a lot closer to what could potentially happen.

  28. It looks so beautiful out there. Snow coming down nicely. Vis at about 1.5 miles or so.
    Wish this could have been yesterday!! That would have been awesome!

    Oh well, What can we do. Enjoy what we get. 😀

  30. OS, not sure how accurate the snowmap is on wunderground, but the euro gives a nice stripe of 6+ for Boston west to just about Worcester, but no further south, or north for that matter

      1. Looks like late eve Sun into the night.

        I believe the euro is the ONLY one showing accumulating snow, albeit a very small area.

      2. This is what he means and this is just for a portion of the SUNDAY
        storm:

        4GP.TW/b026/1388071395767.jpg

        The Euro CLEARLY is calling for SNOW in Boston. 😀 😀

        Doesn’t mean it will happen, but that is what the Euro is
        predicting.

        Again, we need to see if that holds for the 12Z Run. 😀 😀

  31. The lack of cold air is a big deterent for widespread wintry precipitation across SNE. I don’t see a situation you get sometimes with a coastal storm where the low gets strong enough to manufacture its own cold air.

    1. I dont think that happens either JJ. Euro’s showing the low getting to 992 as it approaches the benchmark and still strengthening, but not quite strong enough

  32. Im actually interested to see if the 12Z GFS comes in colder. The 6Z trended that way. It will be a good sign if it is even colder.

    1. Amen to that.

      Hey if you all don’t mind, this brings to mind a situation form way back when, the late 60s or 70s somewhere I believe.

      Channel 4 and Channel 7 were calling for a RAIN STORM, pretty much like now, only it was even the day before. BUT Channel 5’s Bob Copeland was calling for a big SNOWSTORM. It was hilarious, well, I suppose NOT to the public.

      2 BIG market TV stations predicting RAIN and 1 big market TV and one met
      specifically, called for SNOW.

      Guess what folks, we got a FOOT of snow and Bob Copeland was 100% correct!!!

      I am NOT saying this situation is the same, but I can tell you that NOT one
      single Met is calling for Snow and only Eric Fisher said that it “might” end
      as SNOW.

      I sincerely HOPE it SNOWS and I want to see if any Met has the stones
      to predict it. 😀 😀 😀

  35. The fine light snow has started again out my window but nothing like what your seeing Old Salty. This is the second of this type of snow. First coated the cars.

  36. 12Z GFS pretty much a mirror of the 6Z, close but no cigar. Tries so hard to change us to snow toward the end. Good snows in NH and ME though.

      1. 🙂 . Just feels like we’re still trending west a bit.

        996 mb …. The tides begin climbing quickly this weekend, reaching astronomically, extremely high tides next Wed- Fri.

        Thankfully, the height of this event looks like it gets Sunday night’s late evening high tide, which is lower than the morning tide.

      2. Oh that accumulating snow is just north of where I am in CT on that run of the GFS. I hate being right on the edge.
        I would rather a complete miss than be so close yet so far from accumulating snow.

  42. im hoping this storm goes POOF right now or goes well out to sea. This is the first and only time you will here this I DO NOT WANT A STORM FOR SUNDAY!! If anything i rather have it monday.

  43. The 12Z GFS makes the 1/3 storm more interesting. Brings it closer to the coast after a couple runs of crushing it harmlessly OTS. Wxrisk.com was basically guaranteeing that storm so we shall see.

      1. You know, with an Easterly Component to the wind with
        those temperatures, I could imagine a significant “OCEAN EFFECT” event, even if main storm passes out to sea.

        Let’s put it this way, I have seen it before. 😀

      3. DT on wxrisk says, “**ALERT#2 ** 12Z Thurs GFS shows JAN 3-4 Low to be SIGNIFICANT East coast snowstorm threat. IGNORE off the coast idea. FULL WRITE UP soon”

        He’s still bullish on this storm even though its been trending OTS 🙂

        1. I still don’t know what to make of him.

          Sometimes he is Spot on and other times he it
          totally off the wall.

          2. Agreed. Not sure how he can be so certain this far out. If you disagree with him he tends to publicly decapitate u on his fb page

  45. Air is that bone chilling bitter. Of course if I were to remember to wear a jacket, might feel warmer. Feels and smells like winter

    1. Now Vicki – “It’s cold outside, you need to wear a jacket!” 🙂 How many times have we said that line! 🙂 lol

  46. Argh)!(@)#&!*#&!^@&*(#^!&@#!%@#&%!@#%!*@#&

    12Z Euro WARMER. Pushes Snow North and West of Boston.

    FIGURES.

    Onto the 0Z Run to see if it changes.

    1. CMC and UKMET are PUTRID!!!

      Oh and btw, CMC does NOT even have a system for 1/3 or anywhere near
      that time frame!!!!

  48. Now, about today.

    Check out this radar loop. Do I not see development to our South and expanding
    echos SE of Boston.? Also, a coastal front as well?
    Hmmmm

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    1. Raining moderately in Marshfield. The big drops are splattering on the car windshield, like they are part snow.

  49. Made it up to Maine and wow what a scene. Tress down everywhere, snow everywhere. Will post some pictures later.

  55. Euro text output from 12z run

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    12Z DEC26
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    THU 12Z 26-DEC -2.5 -10.5 1028 79 98 0.00 551 529
    THU 18Z 26-DEC 2.5 -5.1 1021 86 90 0.02 543 526
    FRI 00Z 27-DEC -2.0 -8.1 1021 90 33 0.07 543 527
    FRI 06Z 27-DEC -4.0 -9.2 1023 84 14 0.00 548 530
    FRI 12Z 27-DEC -4.3 -9.6 1024 81 36 0.00 546 527
    FRI 18Z 27-DEC 1.6 -9.6 1023 43 76 0.00 541 523
    SAT 00Z 28-DEC -3.4 -10.7 1024 67 24 0.00 546 527
    SAT 06Z 28-DEC -3.1 -4.5 1023 72 64 0.00 547 529
    SAT 12Z 28-DEC -1.9 -1.1 1020 76 87 0.00 553 537
    SAT 18Z 28-DEC 5.3 0.7 1017 52 62 0.00 555 542
    SUN 00Z 29-DEC -0.9 3.5 1018 83 29 0.00 560 545
    SUN 06Z 29-DEC -2.0 3.8 1019 88 42 0.00 561 546
    SUN 12Z 29-DEC -1.8 2.7 1019 90 64 0.00 560 545
    SUN 18Z 29-DEC 3.8 2.4 1016 75 57 0.00 557 544
    MON 00Z 30-DEC 2.3 0.5 1008 97 99 0.26 553 547
    MON 06Z 30-DEC 1.0 -1.0 1003 98 98 0.57 546 544
    MON 12Z 30-DEC -1.3 -1.4 1006 95 52 0.01 547 542
    MON 18Z 30-DEC 5.2 -3.3 1005 79 52 0.00 544 539
    TUE 00Z 31-DEC -2.3 -7.3 1011 65 1 0.00 541 532
    TUE 06Z 31-DEC -8.0 -10.0 1014 64 2 0.00 538 527
    TUE 12Z 31-DEC -11.6 -13.4 1016 60 4 0.00 533 521
    TUE 18Z 31-DEC -7.9 -16.1 1014 42 39 0.00 526 515
    WED 00Z 01-JAN -9.6 -18.1 1017 47 87 0.00 518 505
    WED 06Z 01-JAN -10.0 -18.5 1017 49 98 0.00 514 501
    WED 12Z 01-JAN -14.9 -20.6 1022 62 64 0.00 512 496
    WED 18Z 01-JAN -6.8 -20.9 1022 35 54 0.00 517 499
    THU 00Z 02-JAN -9.8 -19.8 1025 46 52 0.00 523 504
    THU 06Z 02-JAN -8.9 -19.3 1024 40 66 0.00 524 505
    THU 12Z 02-JAN -8.3 -17.9 1023 38 97 0.00 524 507

    1. I see your numbers. Don’t see it on Wundermap.

      Something isn’t right. When I get a chance, I’ll re-look at Wundermap.

      😀

        1. Hadi from your EURO numbers:

          MON 00Z 30-DEC 2.3 0.5 1008 97 99 0.26 553 547
          MON 06Z 30-DEC 1.0 -1.0 1003 98 98 0.57 546 544
          MON 12Z 30-DEC -1.3 -1.4 1006 95 52 0.01 547 542

          So at 06Z it’s 1C at 2M and -1C at 850MB with
          0.57 qpf. That qpf presumably fell from 00Z through
          06Z. at 0Z it was 0.5C at 850MB, so one cannot assume
          the whole .57 fell while it was below freezing at 850MB.

          In fact, it might have fallen below freezing just before 06Z for all we know. Even if you use the 1/2 way
          point, then only .285 would have been snow.

          Point I am making is, it is difficult to know how much
          of that would possibly be snow.

          Did I do that correctly? OR mess it up?

          😀

          1. Correct. I also believe it’s for the previous six hours so that’s why it’s rain. I think but not sure. Let me look into it.

  60. It’s so DARK here. It looks like the Mother of all Thunder Storms is about to hit.

    Just starting to SNOW again. Not rain, but SNOW. 😀

    1. VIS coming down. Now “about” 1.5 miles.

      Also, back end of precip is approaching, so today was nothing but a tease,
      a very pretty tease at times, but a tease none-the-less. 😀

  62. Trend is NOT our friend. That is, for snow lovers. Timing of cold air has been an issue. The storm track this year has been consistently west of the benchmark, with the exception of last week’s re-developing clipper. I think we’ll see a lot more of the E/SE rainstorms than snowstorms this year, as trends like these have a way of sticking around for a while.

      1. Although it can snow with a postive NAO as the accumulating snow this month has happened with a positive NAO.
        Need to have a negative NAO and the right track to get a big snow event in SNE. There are expections the blizzard
        in February and the October Noreaster when the NAO was around neutral at the time of both of those storms.

  63. Charlie, Why are you not stating now it is Snowing to beat the band in Mansfield…. Right next to Foxboro. Does Foxboro have a “Charlie Hole”???

  64. Rain briefly changed to moderate snow for about 15 min’s, light coating on grassy areas and car tops, roads just wet

  66. The sun has come out on the southwestern horizon, and the snow has completely stopped, it was like a little snow squall, kinda cool, luckily there leftover salt from rounds last night that should take care of it 🙂

      1. Geez what I mean is, the sun is out statement in the previous post is a little strong, it’s not out lol, it can be seen behind the clouds from time to time, sorry 🙂

  67. Hadi,

    I had a chance to look at Wundermap, which has 3 hour increments, instead
    of the 6 Hours your data showed.

    Here are 3 850MB maps from today’s 12Z run (assuming I’ve copied them correctly!)

    0Z
    http://i.imgur.com/i0si42o.jpg?1
    03Z
    http://i.imgur.com/58NHh1x.jpg?1
    06Z
    http://i.imgur.com/AimCzzT.jpg?1

    You will note that is is only Below freezing at 850MB on the 06Z map only,
    after most of the precip has fallen.

    The 12Z run is clearly Warmer than last night’s 0Z run.

    We need a reversal with tonight’s 0z run!

  70. And here my friends is the JOKE OF THE DAY:

    3PM Logan Observation:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
    2 Day History

    36.0 °F
    Last Updated: Dec 26 2013, 2:54 pm EST
    Thu, 26 Dec 2013 14:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Rain
    Temperature: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 30.9 °F (-0.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 82 %
    Wind: from the Northwest at 10.4 gusting to 16.1 MPH (9 gusting to 14 KT)
    Wind Chill: 28 F (-2 C)
    Visibility: 5.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1018.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.09 in Hg

    ANOTHER reason WHY the weather for Boston should NOT< NOT NOT NOT NOT
    NOT EVER TODAY OR EVER AGAIN be at Logan International Airport, sticking
    out into Boston Harbor. NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

    INSANE.

    Here I sit in my office a few miles away and it is SNOWING and pretty hard at that!!

    1. Yup. Let’s hope for a change with the 0Z run, but I fear the other
      models were correct and the Euro is coming back to the fold.

      😀

  75. A good 1/2 inch on the ground here. It was really coming down for a bit.

    It’s a White Christmas here, a Day late. 😀 😀 😀

  76. Tweet from Eric Fisher: @ericfisher: Sunday night looks pretty interesting to me. Could be a rain-change to snow event, possibly significant snow. One to watch.

    1. Now you’re talking. I have to say, he’s been the ONLY one talking about
      this possibility. 😀

      Still snowing here. 😀

    2. He has to account for his entire audience which includes worcester and points north into southern NN and coastal ME. It is these places that have the best chance of snow from this. This Tweet, IMO, is meant for that audience and not the Boston area.

      1. I respectfully disagree. I do believe he means for the
        Boston Area. A change to snow well N&W of Boston would
        NOT constitute “Sunday Night looks pretty interesting to me”.
        A change to Snow N&W would be pretty routine and ho-hum, while a change to snow in Boston is serious business.

        Just my take. 😀

  77. The lack of cold air to me is a big ingredient missing here. I said this earlier unless this storm is able to manufacture its cold air I see mostly a rainorama with it possibly ending as a bit of wintry precipitation.

  78. One thing I noticed about the snow showers we got between 2:30-3:30, it started off small flakes, transitioned to big flakes during the most intense, and then transitioned back to small flakes, there were many layers of warm air above us

  83. I would like to see what he is looking at. I am not ruling out a brief change towards the tail end of the storm here in SNE but I am seeing a mostly rainorama at the moment. Now that could change and there could be more of a mixorama entering the picture but I would favor a rainorama right now.

  84. Again I am not sure what he is looking at. Is he going with his gut? To me significant snow is 10 plus inches. The storm system is a progressive one with no blocking in place. Your going to have a lot of liquid before any POSSIBLE changeover.

    1. JJ, I’m with you.

      I don’t know what he is looking at.

      I can tell you that the 18Z GFS is NOT looking good so far.

  87. Yes, Yes, I know. It’s the 18Z run. 😀

    BUT, it is something. IS something up with this storm?

    It looked like it was going to be an inside runner and then it
    took a right hand turn and moves out well South of us, backing the winds
    to NE and NNE.

    I don’t think there is much chance of ALL snow from this, but perhaps just maybe
    there is a chance of a change to snow of a decent portion of the storm???????

    We shall see.

    1. Eric actually said that the rain/snow line might be in VT and then went on to say it could be in central MA and in another breath, said maybe Boston. I think his comments were for the sake of TV ratings.

    2. Makes perfect sense, doesn’t it!

      Hey 18Z GFS has 1/3 event now mainly a 1/2 event with residuals hanging on
      well into 1/3. Has it dropping about 8 inches of snow on Boston area. 😀

      We shall see.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122618&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=168

      We finally get something moving into solid cold, and it’s the weak sister of the big storm starved for moisture. Go Figure. Well there is time, is all I can say at this point.

  93. Being 3 days out and with that type of track I can’t believe it’s all rain but sure looks that way. Lacking is the arctic air which is coming for the next storm.

    I do believe Tom your 8.4 inches is in jeopardy very soon 🙂

  95. Will see what the 0z runs have to say but at this point not expecting much if any accumulating snow. I still feel mostly a rainorama maybe ending as period of a wintry mixorama. Maybe there will be some surprises with this storm but I am not putting much stock into that.

  96. Hadi, you been having a twitter chat with ERic
    Fisher. COOL.

    1/2-1/4 looks really interesting and cold

    IF we can get enough moisture, could get
    A monster.

  97. Jr has a cold rain on Sunday and ending around midnight. Is saying no snow for that storm thanks to today’s storm.

  99. Roads are getting slick down here in Plymouth. All the rain we had is now freezing. My son slipped in the Friendly’s parking lot. Good thing he is only six and very resilient.

    1. Yes sue I can agree. I got home after 7 because I was salting at work and when I turned on to my street the truck spun around.

  100. I think I agree with JJ on this one. It’s going to be a mild three days coming up in the mid 40s and I’m just thinking this is an all rain event and by the time if the cold came it would be to little to late as its gone by midnight according to jr.

  101. for new years i think your high and low temperatures are a bit high. looks much colder. next thursday areas could see as low as -15 degrees based on some weather models.

  103. Tonight has to be one of the worst flash freezes (that occurred about 4 hrs ago) that I have seen in 12 yrs of living on the south shore.

    Rain ended around 5-5:30, the skies instantly cleared and we radiated fast. The walkways, driveways are absolute skating rinks and the roads have a lot of icy patches on them. Nothing had a chance to dry. Wow !

  104. I laughed at the NAM with its SE Mass track on the events earlier in the month …. Remember that event where it was in the low teens in Boston and the NAM had the low over SE Mass about 12 hrs later and I was thinking over Nantucket because of all the arctic air.

    Well, the 0z NAM is over SE Mass again and this time, I’m going to trust the track. The thicknesses are perhaps to far N and W and need to be a little further S and E, but the track I trust.

  106. new noaa weather radio, this time it includes in it. the noaa weather radio, more channels than the last one, am and fm radio, a light and 5 different energy sources.

  108. Good morning everyone, this is a for sure rain event for the Boston/Providence corridor, well north and west of Boston and Providence will see some snow, think its becoming confident on a rain producer here though, Happy New Year everyone!!!

    1. I wouldn’t say that hadi, look back the last 5 days at the blog, and tell me if everyone has thought just rain 🙂

  111. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceNECN 51s

    Latest RPM model trending colder for Sunday’s coastal storm. Thermal profile issues…just how cold and warm remain pic.twitter.com/sBvS55Arkf

    1. Stay tuned lol 🙂 I’m don’t want to be disrespectful but good grief, the ratings of stay tuned has gone crazy, I guess they get people to stay tuned idk, take it easy coastal 🙂

      1. He works for necn which forecasts for a large area. So his tweet could be based for a larger audience. But we know you are the only audience. So it’s not hype Charlie. Take it easy Charlie.

  112. I did look back and everyone was discussing what they might be wanting to happen but nowhere did I read anyone saying snow is coming.

    Also gfs has another storm around the 3-5 so something to watch. That one looks colder for sure.

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