Dry & Cool Today, Milder Weekend, Cold New Year

7:44AM

High pressure builds in today with bright and cool weather. Watch for black ice early in the day as partially melted snow from Thursday re-froze overnight.

Warm front brings some clouds and milder air in for Saturday, then Sunday turns overcast and ends wet as a low pressure area coming out of the Gulf of Mexico rides up the East Coast and brings a slug of rain to southeastern New England.  This system is likely to be rain instead of snow because of the lack of cold air in place and a low track very close to the coast (probably over southeastern MA) during Sunday night. We’ll have to watch the hills outside of I-495 for some mixing.

An arctic cold front will come through on Monday and bring some significant cold to the region for the final day of 2013 and the start of 2014. We’ll have to watch for a couple clipper systems that may threaten the region with a bit of snow from time to time during the first couple days of the New Year.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Areas of black ice early. Highs 33-40 from northwest to southeast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s, some 10s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30-35. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain developing south to north in the afternoon, may mix with snow interior southern NH and north central MA, mainly higher elevations at night with a bit of a mix trying to expand eastward as rain ends overnight. Highs 38-45, mildest southeastern areas. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, gust over 30 MPH coastal areas and higher elevations.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers late. Lows 20-25. Highs 30-35.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 20-28.

NEW YEAR’S EVE OUTLOOK: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-15.

WEDNESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of snow, then clearing. Highs 15-20.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 5-13. Highs 18-25.

190 thoughts on “Dry & Cool Today, Milder Weekend, Cold New Year”

  1. TK, thank you.

    Do you see cold air pushing in a little further to the east on Sunday than originally forecast? No, I am not talking about snow for SE MA, but I am wondering if the Worcester area (where I am traveling to on Sunday) might see white stuff.

  2. Thanks TK!

    Earlier forecasts had Sunday look quite promising with temps upper 40s-near 50 and “dry” if not partly sunny but now a heavy cold rainstorm up to 1″+. I have to go to work Sunday afternoon and evening. UGH! 🙁

    Hopefully, Ridley can keep hold of the ball in the rain. Go Pats! 😉

  3. Good morning and many thanks TK for your continuing excellent work and dedication
    to this blog!!

    Re: upcoming weather

    It BLOWS!!!

    Ok I could live with the rain (And by the way I have officially thrown in the towel
    on this one. It wouldn’t snow If I borrowed Charlie’s freezer and fan and blew cold air
    all over the place!!!!!)

    It’s the PARADE of Stinken INSIDE RUNNERS that “appear” to be lined up that
    has me really upset. KEEP the damn cold in Canada IF that’s what we’re going
    to get. Don’t TEASE!

    Sure we get a blast of Serious ARCTIC Air only to have a storm system sneak up
    hugging close to the coast or tracking inland a bit only to open the doors for More Arctic air, only to REPEAT!@#)*!()*!@()@#*()!*@()#*()!*@*#

    Sure, it’s early and it could change.

    What happened to our 1/2,1/3 system???????????????????????????

    ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!@()U(#*!(*(@#*!()*@#(

    UGH METER has TILTED at 11.99!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    OK, time for more coffee.

    Hopefully I’ll calm down some. What a DEPRESSING MORNING!!!!!!!!

        1. 😀
          That would be nice. Even look back at a 20 inch dump
          on 1/3. This is not etched in stone. It caught me by
          surprise this morning and I had a bad reaction to it.
          😀

      1. GFS clearly sees something else. EURO just has a couple weak clippers passing through during that same time frame and COLD. TK mentioned a couple clippers…i wonder what model he’s going with 😉 I will say, without a -NAO, clippers have very little chance of becoming anything significant.

  4. OK,

    Let’s have some fun. I haven’t seen a quiz in awhile.
    How about this one:

    There is a certain temperature for which the Fahrenheit and Centigrade
    temperature reading is EXACTLY the same. Can you pick which one?

    A. 0
    B. 100
    C. -40
    D. -100

    Hope you don’t mind. We need something. 😀

  5. I just checked posts from previous blog in case I missed something and found this:

    @ericfisher: First RPM run with Sunday evening included pumps out snow in SNE. Not sleeping on this one. Will be borderline. http://t.co/QX9lF9VQ9o

    I looked at that map. Huh, that’s CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND, not SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

    Think I have attitude this morning?

    Sorry.

  6. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceNECN 4m

    Tough forecast Sunday due to lack of cold air. But trend has been for colder storm. Snow north shifts south by night pic.twitter.com/iUMgKfPi8e

  7. I keep hearing and reading some media outlets saying, “brace for cold and snow on the east coast,” and “cold and snowy pattern setting up for the east coast.” Sure, ill buy the cold for a period of time, but these same outlets automatically think that with cold and a “tanking” AO comes snow. Without blocking, we’re not really in a good pattern for good snows. Without blocking, what happens is exactly whats happening right now, inside runners and/or coastal huggers followed by a short lived blast of arctic air and a weak clipper or 2 only to warm up in time for the next inside runner and repeats itself.

    1. Is this Déjà vu all over again?

      Couldn’t agree more. All we are going to see is WASTED COLD AIR.
      As a parade of inside runners/coastal huggers march up the East Coast.

      UGHHHHHHHHHH

      Hey, JJ what level is your UGH meter reading?

  8. Hey Old Salty…. UGH meter for Sunday storm system up to an 8. It still 48 hours away so I am not going with a 10 just yet. By tomorrow night unless some changes big time it will be a 10. I would love to tune on the tv tomorrow and say there has been a major change like I did back in the 90s when it looked like a storm was going out to sea then at the 11pm broadcast a major change happened and the storm was going to affect us and it did.

    1. Those type of situations just don’t happen all that often.
      However, one never knows.

      Consider the following map tweeted by Joe Joyce:

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bcf19gOCEAEwvts.png

      If that map is even close to reality come Sunday, I could easily
      imagine that cold front drapping across Most of MA, changing the
      rain to Sleet/Snow. One can dream, no?

  9. Yesterday Logan received 0.3″ of snow bringing the grand total so far at 11.7″ which is 3.4″ ABOVE normal for the winter season so far.

    Hang in there Old Salty…let’s not throw in the towel with winter just barely a week old. If nothing else, we have already surpassed the entire 2011-2012 winter’s total of 9.3″. 😀

    1. How True. BTW, Hadi and I live in BOSTON, yet our season total
      is something like 16 or 17 inches already. What a difference 5 or 6 miles
      makes! 😀 😀

    1. I sure hope it tracks farther South and East and spares the region up there.

      If NAM track holds, you may never make it back home again.

  10. I normally refrain from making any type of weather predictions but watch for a big storm on January 18th. I am having a baby shower for my cousin that day and the last party I had for her was in January of 2005 and we got crushed with a blizzard. I just have visions of a repeat of that graduation party and the horrendous ride home I had from Abington to Plymouth.

      1. GFS appears to be confused around the period 1/2-1/4???

        What’s up with that?

        Now, no Inside runner. Not complaining, just wondering
        why the big shift.

        That period still looks to be quite interesting. 😀

        1. Showing a weird strung out double low? First low gives a few inches of snow but stronger low misses to the south and east. Much more time for this one to be ironed out.

    1. Yes. I wonder how that will shake out.

      With this run, 850MB 0C line gets dangerously close as does the
      2M 0C line. Snow map has a sharp cutoff from “Just” South of Boston.

  11. From DT…

    **ALERT ** in this DIFFICULT weather pattern ** IGNORE ALL the operational Models and ONLY use the ENSEMBLE means past PAST DAY

    Guessing he thinks the op runs are having a difficult time with this pattern? Not sure whats so difficult about the pattern that all op runs are garbage though. If this were the case, than all outlets would just use the ensembles and ignore the op runs

      1. Ok here are the latest GFS ensembles I can get my hands on.
        AS I look this over, I see only 2 or 3 solutions that would be good.
        ALL THE REST show either an inside runner or a coastal Hugger.

        So what is DT talking about???????

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=072

        CMC emsembles aren’t any better:

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=072

        Here is the EURO ensembles mean:

        http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2013122700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072hr

        DT’s off his rocker.

        Ensembles support the operational runs as far as I can see,
        Unless I am NOT seeing something correctly. 😀

        1. I think a lot of times he tries to create things that arent there until something sticks. He may be more talking about a mini snow event in the SE on or around new years day too

  12. 12Z Euro toasty for Sunday.

    NOTHING for 1/3. HOW is this possible?

    CM has a clipper type system for 1/3.

    Both models totally and completely different than the GFS.

    ??????????????????????????????

    1. FWIW, the Euro has shown a little bit of inconsistency run to run the last few days. It may be having trouble handling the pattern’s details.

  13. 12Z euro does have some southern stream energy gathering on 1/2. Where it goes I can’t tell, wundermaps sometimes goes haywire toward the end of the run and has a lot of feedback issues

      1. If there is a way for it to go OTS, then OTS it is.
        If there is a way for it to cut through the Lakes, then through
        the Lakes it is.
        If there is a way for it to hug the coast or run inland a bit, then
        that’s the way it will go.

        blah blah blah……….

        Still the ingredients are there. We need to conduct a
        WSW SNOW DANCE!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. In my humble opinion, the precipitation from Sunday’s storm will be largely gone before enough cold air is in to change it back to snow of any significance for most of if not all of the region.

    Some of you remember the 1978-1979 pattern in which it was one of the coldest winters, not only here, but in the entire country, yet almost every storm that came through the East was a Lakes Cutter with a brief warm up and rain. We did snow a few times, but nothing really major. Though that was the year of the original Presidents Day Storm (that clobbered Washington DC) and looked like a hurricane on satellite. That was in February though, an eternity away, and much can happen with the pattern between now and then.

      1. I’d still keep an eye on the January 2-4 period for now. There has been enough showing up there on some guidance to warrant at least a check as it gets closer. Nothing through the remainder of 2013 though.

    1. Totally agree about Sunday. What a bummer. Oh well.

      re: Winter 78-79
      Yes, that is the Winter I mentioned awhile back.
      Ice breakers were needed to bring supplies to Nantucket.
      They were Ice Boating on Quincy Bay.
      Amazingly cold Winter.

      I’m not about to toss in the towel on the period 1/2-1/4, but
      When the Euro is not on board, I’m concerned. 😀

  15. Just give me 2-3 good Noreaster’s with widespread double digit snowfalls and I will be happy. I just don’t want to have a winter like 01-02 06-07 and 11-12. I am not complaining already having a foot of snow where I am in CT so far.

  16. TK, significant snow in central and northern NE from sunday’s storm?

    Just curious how ski country does

  17. I think euro is over playing the southern stream for jan 2-4. Give it another two or three days and I think we see a good solution.

    1. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

      The Euro came around to the GFS and NAM with Sunday’s event.

      So one never knows.

      😀

  18. LOL!!! I am hoping that UGH meter does not come out too often this winter. UGH meter up at 9 now and more than likely at 10 tomorrow with the Sunday storm system. UGH meter for late next week storm threat at a 2 since there is plenty of time for that to change being so many days away.

      1. Thanks OS, that site will do! I’ve been pondering signing up for that site that’s now pay. It’s a great site and had some recent upgrades. 20% off offer right now through new years after a free 2 day trial

  19. I don’t have an UGH meter myself. I just take the pattern as it is. I’m actually kind of fond of the pattern we are in and have been in. It can snow in transitions, as we saw recently. The majority of the time though, we get a mild fast-moving storm or a cold outbreak. Unfortunately when we have the big contrasts they can result in the ice storm situations, such as the one Maine is still recovering from.

    1. If this pattern continues Logan is sure to end up with less than normal snowfall. In my area we have actually received less than Logan for the year so far. I have fallen on the wrong side of each “storm”

  20. Don’t even bother looking at the 18Z NAM. We’re all gonna need bathing suits soon if it keeps moving sundays storm further north and west

  21. Just outside letting dog out and a tree came crashing down in the woods next to my in laws house. Sounded like a bomb. Pretty unreal.

  22. what is accuweather.com on drugs come on they are calling for 3-6 inches inside of 495 and 6-12 for parts of the interior

  23. On the plus side:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 27 2013, 2:50 pm EST

    Water Temperature: 43.3 °F (6.3 °C)

  24. Seems like a pattern is setting up rain south and snow north. Let’s hope we can brake that cycle otherwise this winter will be a dud.

  25. I like the 18z NAM’s track of the low. Probably just west of the Cape Cod Canal, maybe right over Boston.

    I would be willing to bet the rain in Boston ends before midnight and the stars are shining around that time in eastern MA.

    1. Ok I am going to hold you to that TK! Since I am working Sunday evening I would love to leave work dry or at least much lighter rain. 😉

  26. It appeared last week when the ponds/lakes were water during the thaw they were higher, so I was wondering with another 1-2 inches of rain coming through, is there is even a drought anymore? And with 1-2 inches of rain on Sunday I’m thinking possible flood watches may be issued.

    1. We continue to run a deficit of mostly over 5 inches.

      As of December 24, we are indeed still classified in moderate drought, and rightly so.

      It’s harder to notice the impact of a drought during the non-growing season, but trust me, it’s there.

      Agricultural meteorology is my specialty.

        1. Droughts are long term, and a few moderate rain events don’t erase moderate ones. But yes, the levels have come up from a combination of rain and snowmelt.

          We have a long way to go to get out of drought, and I don’t expect we’ll be doing it any time soon.

          Despite a couple gulf-juiced systems, the long term pattern REMAINS dry.

          1. I absolutely agree and thank you again. A good part of the country remains in drought. Its encouraging to see the Sudbury higher than I have in too long but I also know that it can drop in a blink.

                1. The mountains in California are very low compared to last year for snowcover. Not good for growing and irrigation in the spring.

  27. Yuck yuck and triple yuck got 1/2,1/3 system.
    18Z GFS wants to take a lakes cutter with a coastal that
    move too close to the coast. Snow to RAIN in Boston.
    It’s still a ways out, but Geez will it NEVER end?????????

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122718&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=162

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122718&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=162

    I know it’s waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to pin down a final rain/snow line, but
    I just don’t like this trending, that is all. It’s close enough that all could be fine.

    1. I know the track doesn’t look too bad, but there was significant
      warming from Lakes Cutter prior to the coastal adequately developing.

      Interesting that Euro sees No such thing. 😀

      1. Bc they can’t discuss things that are only potential. Also it does warm back up from highs in the teens and low 20’s to more seasonal temps.

      2. Wankum’s “warm-up” was from a projected high of 18 Thursday to 24 Friday.

        And there is the potential for a couple of events. The models are just having issues figuring out which pieces of energy develop and if and how much southern stream energy gets involved.

  28. Temp actually went from 23.3 degrees at 6pm, to 24.2 degrees at 7pm, southwest wind is kicking temps upward, and will be around 30 degrees by sunrise.

  29. Best paragraph of the winter so far from the nws. Classic!!

    HAVE FORECAST MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS -6F DEGREES IN SOUTHERN NH THU
    MORNING… BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT…IT COULD BE MUCH COLDER
    THAN THAT. TAKEN VERBATIM…ECMWF ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    COULD BE 20-25 BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHERN NH AND WELL BELOW ZERO IN
    MA. LET US NOT GO OFF THE DEEP END YET… SO STAY TUNED. FOR NOW
    WINDS APPEAR ON THE LIGHT SIDE WHICH WOULD KEEP WIND CHILL INDICES
    BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS…ROUGHLY 5 TO 10

  30. Temp has not really risen much in the last hr, currently 25.1 degrees, we have some much needed rain on the way, the heaviest rain wants to come in late Sunday evening.

  31. Winter started on December 21. The storms before that was bonus snow. I seem to remember the same conversations in the very beginning of winter last year. We have a 2 and 1/2 months of chances for snow. I’m guessing February is the snowy month. Be patient it’s coming.

  32. Looked at the models this am and it seems they are trying to get a handle on something for the end of next week. Not much definition or consistency this far out.

  33. I am not buying that run for later next week and but it looks beautiful. Usually when a big storm is shown like that several days it it is more times that not it does not happen or its a much much weaker storm.
    UGH Meter tomorrow now at a 10.

    1. Disagree JJ. We are getting within a decent range. Let’s see what happens.

      Ace I agree the euro is starting to come around.

  34. Hadi, 00z euro does have a coastal low and a pretty strong one at that. Only problem is its way OTS. This is a good sign though since it really didnt show much of anything like that before. Heres hoping it keeps that feature in future runs for some consistency and stars to move north and west

  35. Its definetley a watcher and the GFS has gone back and forth since about the 18th of December showing accumulating snow then none back to accumulating snow then none and now with the latest run showing an accumulating snow and if this run pans out the first significant snowfall of the winter season.

  36. Good Morning before I have to run….

    3 things from me:

    1. For those few who answered my little quiz yesterday, the correct answer was
    ‘C’ -40. Yup C an F are the same at that temperature. Thank you all.
    2. I see signs that there “may” be a changeover tomorrow night towards the end of
    the event. It will be close.
    3. Re: 1/2=1/3 event. NOW the Euro has a system, albeit OTS, but it HAS it whereas
    it did NOT before. GFS shows a prolonged period of light-moderate fluffy snow
    eventually accumulating about 14-16 inches across the Boston area. I don’t see
    much model support for this, which has me concerned. Even the usually pretty
    reliable FIM has it, but off shore:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013122800/236/3hap_sfc_f162.png

    Have a great Day all.

  37. RE: 06Z GFS forecast. This model is not even close to being within reliable range regarding that system. The piece of shortwave energy that eventually spawns the thing depicted on that run can be traced back to a cluster of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front somewhere between Asia and the Aleutian Islands. Beyond pipe dreams. And the Euro’s inconsistency with the development and track of a system around that time only adds support to the idea that they (the models) don’t have any idea worth a damn at this stage of the game. And they probably won’t tomorrow either. Monday, we’ll talk. 🙂

  38. 1st things 1st we got a decent size rainstorm tomorrow, and don’t get to excited for a BLIZZARD lol just yet, it will change dramatically over the next few days, nice day today, 34.6 degrees, yes ds my 1st glance is a mix or rain for the Boston Prividence corridor, with snow north and west, lets see in a few days 🙂

    1. I will agree on this: Decent rainstorm tomorrow, but only 1 inch or just over, certainly not drought-ending.

      I don’t agree on this: If you take the GFS verbatim, the temperatures would be far far too cold to support any mixing anywhere in SNE. But of course that’s a model run I am not even close to being ready to buy yet and will be long forgotten when I start studying runs that actually matter, regarding that system, just speculation for the pure fun of it. 🙂

  39. The warm advection clouds are right on schedule. Look for a mainly grey morning in much of southeastern New England, bright turning to grey on Cape Cod, then increasing sun as we get into afternoon. These clouds will hold back potential high temps, which will probably be closer to 40 in most sections versus the middle 40s that would have occurred with full sun (which I was not forecasting anyway).

Comments are closed.