The Week Ahead

393 Comments

6:47PM

With the Sunday storm wrapping up , it’s time to look ahead to the coming week’s weather, but before we go there, just a few loose ends to tie up with the current storm…

*Low pressure crosses Cape Cod early tonight and accelerates away to the northeast.

*Precipitation ends from southwest to northeast across the region between 7:30PM and 10:00PM, as rain in most areas, but with a little icing ongoing in higher elevations of east central MA and interior NH and a flip to snow in these areas with up to a slushy inch of accumulation.

*Temperatures dropping below freezing interior MA, northern RI, and southern NH overnight. Wet areas that to not dry out from increasing wind will freeze, creating some walking and driving hazard for the early morning hours. Temperatures should remain above freezing along coastal areas and over most of southern RI and Cape Cod and the Islands.

Looking ahead…

Transition Monday: A couple cold fronts will move through the region, but with very little weather associated with them – just a few clouds. Temperatures will reach their highest points for the day before noon then drop off during the day.

Cold New Year’s Eve, few flakes?: A very weak disturbance will approach from the west into newly delivered but slightly modified arctic air on Tuesday, bringing clouds and some risk of snow showers. No significant accumulation will take place from this event, and many areas will see only clouds, but not any snow. For  First Night activities, expect it to be breezy and very cold with a temperature falling into the teens! Bundle up if you plan to be out there anywhere!

2014 starts with a snow threat and some very cold weather: What is known is that the Polar Vortex (large area of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere), often the core of the coldest air, will be wobbling around eastern Canada during the coming week. This will deliver some arctic air to the region for the first few days of the new year. What is less certain (still) is how an area of moisture and energy moving into the northeastern US will interact with this and impact the weather here. There have been all kinds of scenarios depicted on various runs of the computer guidance. The best idea I can come up with at this point is that we will not see one single powerful storm clobber the region with a big snowstorm, but rather a more strung-out area of energy and moisture, being stretched by strong westerly winds around the southern side of the Polar Vortex. Timing also remains uncertain, but for now I will go with the snow threat being in the Wednesday night and Friday morning time frame. It is too early to talk about potential amounts. I will monitor this and update as needed.

If the timing I expect does indeed work out, watch for another push of arctic air Friday into Saturday, with moderating temperatures by the end of next weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Storm ends as rain most areas by 10PM but a period of snow higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH with minor snow accumulation. Clearing later. Lows 25-35 from northwest to southeast across the region. Wind variable becoming mostly NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from near 32 in the higher elevations northwest of Boston to near 40 Cape Cod by midday then falling back to the 20s in the afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT:  Clear. Lows 10-20, least cold along the South Coast. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers mainly midday and afternoon. No significant accumulation. Highs 20-27. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 10. High 19.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 18.

FRIDAY: Chance of snow early. Clearing. Low 8. High 16.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 22.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 11. High 33.

393 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK! Glad I won’t be in Boston on New Years Eve….I don’t want to start my year out by freezing to death 😉

    I love when it rains when I’m home. I have my own personal lullaby when I go to bed! 😀

    1. I took a nap this afternoon….mostly because the rain sounded so nice on the windows and skylight. I know exactly what you mean 🙂

    1. This had no chance of being a huge rain producer. Not enough convection (barely any at all). Moving too fast. A nice storm to clean up some of the salt and add a little bit of water to the system (still need lots more to get out of drought).

        2. I thought the GFS and euro were a lot closer to reality. NAM was the main culprit in overcooking this one

  8. WOW! What a performance by Blount!!

    Thanks Tk for the update.

    Re: Thursday

    I saw what you describe in some model runs. We shall see.
    However, there is still a chance for a Big Major snow storm. The chance
    may be small, but it none-the-less there.

    😀

    2. TK,

      What you describe is Exactly what the GFS had several runs ago.
      A prolonged period of mostly light to sometimes moderate snow
      with much Ocean effect thrown in. 😀 😀

      Look forward to 0Z runs as we get closer and closer.

        1. Not surprised. Probably the likely scenario, but until
          the possibility of the Biggie is put to bed, I can keep dreaming. 😀 😀

        2. Thoughts on accumulations? I know it’s early, just
          speculate. Even with this scenario, I think we’d be looking
          at an easy 4-8, perhaps even a tad more. 😀

          1. The most pure ocean effect snow I have ever seen in Boston is about 8 inches. Of course there has
            been more on the South and North shores. 😀

      1. Wundergroud n Attleboro showing .79. Taunton showing just under 1 and Providence 1.35. I do find some wundergroud stations are not accurate. We have one in framingham I never go to

  15. TWC for my town said 0.50″ precip past 24 hrs but i suspect thats incorrect. I dont have a rain gauge (yet) but 3 wunderground stations near me say around 1.00” precip last 24 hrs

  16. Not sure how people think the models were poor with this system. Looking back at nam, gfs and euro and all were nearly perfect.

  18. Hahahaha, Sue! Oh man, the BZ blog is hilarious. Poking a little fun at us over here 🙂
    Doesn’t someone by the name “ML” post here too??

      1. Thanks sue. Yea I remembered they were at the bottom but my iPhone was not showing view comments. I switched over to the iPad and clearly saw it. Boy they bashed this blog. What up with ml as I thought he was one of us.

        1. Sorry John. Didnt realize you were on phone. For some reason you can’t see comments on the iPhone. Wondering about DL also. Troll?

  21. OK first. dam the football team from the early 2000s are back….. not really but wow i had not seen a runningback like blount since Corey Dillion. This team reminds me of the patriots in the early 2000s. good defense, great balanced attack offense. We have a great cast in the backfield with blount being the power back, Ridley. and shane vereen … Edelmen just needed welker out of the way to shine and amondola even though he did not catch that much he is clearing the area up for the others. as well as blocking. our offense line is literally blowing defenses off thier feet.Even though im not a chargers fan by any means I am happy for philip rivers….. hoping that the eagles QB does nothing tonight as my opponent in fantasy has nick foles as their QB . 🙁

    ok back to weather. dam that was a cold wind driven rain. for a bit. temperatures in the low to middle 30s at my place. had a good party and still have a couple of inches of icy snow. which will freeze up like a rock. sleeding hill is going to be a sheet of fast pain lol . From wednesday night through friday morning. Gfs shows a good dumping of snow and been very consisitant showing at least 8+. If someone can please show the Euro and canadian snowfall maps that would be great since my link is not working. besides for wondermap and looking at wondermaps only shows about 3 inches. of snow want to make sure thats correct.

    1. I think it’s actually Thursday mid day till Friday am. Barry said on his just updated blog that with what the models show now he would make a stab at 10+ but said that was just today’s showing and should know with more certainty Tuesday night.

  22. Good news for Augusta, ME and maybe other areas around it hit hard by the ice storm last week.

    Its 21F with snow. Some of the very cold air in northern ME is getting brought down into that region.

    At that temp, I’d think the snow is dry and is not adding further weight to the power lines and tree branches.

    Of course, at those temps, hopefully not too many people remain without power.

    2. Tom would Friday be a snow day for you or do you go back Monday 1/6. Pembroke goes back Thursday but I may let him stay home with us, is that not good to say to a teacher. But he is in 4th grade and does very well and goes everyday.

      1. We go back 1/6 because we had 3 days in August. 🙂 have another week off.

        Looking at 0z NAM, it says snow could begin early Thursday.

  23. I wonder if the Presidents Day storm of 2003 could be something to look at for the upcoming event later this week.

    As I recall, the pressure on that storm was laughably high, like over 1004mb. I think it was very, very cold over New England with a decent overrunning situation that accumulated a ton of snow. It sounds a bit like later this week …….

    2. Those monster write-ups are great. I need to get back to reading the blogs on there. Of course I am hoping for the best out of this storm, but if not, there is plenty of winter to go.

    1. A little early for #’s IMO. I think I’ll take a stab at that for a first guess tomorrow evening.

      What I will say is that I think this will seem like a scenario we don’t see too often. There will probably be an axis of at least moderate snowfall in northern MA into central New England from a lobe of energy lifting through, while the energy that would have helped create the classic storm passes harmlessly out to sea a few hundred miles south of New England. That may leave the South Coast with much less to fall from the sky. Curious to see what the 00z GFS says about it.

      Not to be lost is the late-data hint that a little system coming along on New Year’s Eve may end up producing more snow than anybody thinks at the moment. We have to watch for that too.

        1. Thing with snow amounts here, it’s going to take very little shift in QP to make a few inches difference in snow.

          If I was going to put #’s on the system now, I could make a case for 1 inch or a foot in Boston and seem sane doing either. 🙂

          I’m holding off for now. 🙂

    1. Yes, they may end up with a light to moderate event, depending on where that axis sets up. Can’t pin it down yet, despite met’s throwing #’s around. Any sane met knows there is just too much uncertainty at T minus 84 hours.

        1. There’s a potent little vort max coming along Tuesday night. The NAM played it up a little on the 00z run (though that may be overdone). Thing is, with cold air in place, it won’t take much QP to produce a swath of a few inches of powder somewhere that night.

          If the next 2 runs show this, I’m going to talk it up a bit more. No change yet.

          1. Not a good night for that to happen as its already a dangerous night to be on the road. I’ll be home watching the stooges marathon.

            1. Love the Stooges.

              Yeah I’m still leaning with that being on the light and scattered side and making the educated assumption that the NAM is over-doing the precipitation. Just have to watch it with the cold that will be in place.

  31. Hmm. One of the Boston met’s posted the Euro from 48 hours ago with 16 inches of snow for Boston (why?) and then forecasted a half foot for the end of the week.

    I respect him, but I just cannot do this.

  34. My son’s heading back to Chicago tomorrow. He’s enjoyed a break from the crazy cold they’ve been experiencing this winter, but back to reality tomorrow!

  36. Snowmap for 0z Euro:

    http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123000/east/ecmwf_tsnow_east_21.png

    It’s showing 10-20″ for much of SNE and 20-26″ for a good portion of VT and NH at 10:1 ratios! With frigid air in place, these ratios are going to be way higher (15 or 20:1 in many areas). Epic snowstorm if it verifies.

    Not biting yet though as it’s only one run of the Euro. Need to see a few more runs of this before we start buying our bread and milk…

  38. Wxrisk.com
    IF this pattern holds JAN 2014 could be a TOP 10 JAN for SNOW for northern half of PA NYC NY STATE and all of New England …

    -AO/ + NAO .. split flow pattern … another possible NYC NEW ENGLAND winter storm JAN 7

  39. 0z runs overnight…wow. Not sure you can ignore this one folks. I know it’s still a few days out, but getting a little excited about it!

  40. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 4h

    Expect a long duration late week Nor’easter..substantial snow for most & coastal flooding concerns

    1. Not sure coastal, but i do remember hearing somewhere the tides will be astronomicly high moving into the end if this week

  43. A few quick thoughts. Agree with TK about a wide range of sensible outcomes for this system. I think it would be prudent to forecast a potential long duration event, with the potential for significant accumulation.

    I am leaning towards a later, as opposed to earlier onset of precip. Mostly light snow early on. Not sure this develops like the ECMWF says it will, but even if it does not, potential in place for solid accumulations with a long duration light to moderate snowfall and coastal enhancement.

    Mark-Those instant weather maps do not use a 10:1 for the GFS Snow map, they use an algorithm that produces a much higher than climo snow accumulation. We discussed the inaccuracy of it here a week or two ago. In most cases it over states snow accumulation, but we may far exceed climo in much of the area with this one, so maybe it might be close?

  47. A long duration event like the one you describe, JMA, reminds me of my first snowstorm after moving to Boston in 2003, I believe. It seemed to snow for 60 hours straight, with band after band of ocean effect snow.

  48. I saw it Hadi, it goes from benign to insane in 12 hours. I do like the ECMWF’s idea of later onset of any significant precip, but yes, I would say right now the 00z is an outlier and while its ensemble mean is still strong, it is further off shore with its development, which makes a bit more sense.

    Here is the deal, the key to this storm is the northern shortwave that is still 24 hours or so away from developing west of Alaska and how it interacts with and amplifies the eastern US trough that resides near the coast. The depth and tilt of that trough and if / when it combines with southern shortwave energy which does currently exist but is meandering in western Mexico is going to determine how strong this system becomes. Also a question of how far south the PV sinks.

    I know it seems like a lot of waffling but until we have more data from that that northern shortwave in 24-48 hours a lot of potential solutions are on the table.

  49. I believe last year for the February 8th blizzard the models were fairly consistent calling for a major impact several days out.

  50. Coastal your right. The EURO had the blizzard about a week in advance. I remember the RPM model was showing crazy snowfall amounts in excess of 30 inches here in CT with the blizzard and that model verified.
    I would be surprised at this point if we don’t get any snowfall. I have been saying a weaker storm than the models are depicting and I am not changing my position on that. I am surprised a hazardous weather outlook isn’t up for most of SNE with growing confidence of some accumulating snow from this storm system. Hazardous Weather Outlook is up for southern CT and the NYC area.

  51. Thanks, TK.

    Thanks to everyone for all your kind wishes re: my mother. Your well wishes helped me feel better.

    Weather-wise, I suppose any snow we get will be on the fluffy side. A little easier to clean up but also faster to pile up. It’s going to be really cold, too. I don’t like it when it gets so cold – I prefer snow to any bitterly cold temps. But it’s winter and it’s New England. To me, anyway, it’s been a long winter ’cause we started getting real cold temps. and snow in the late fall. Maybe and early spring? Naaah – I’m still in winter mode. I wouldn’t mind seeing 1 or 2 decent snowstorms before the winter is through. And, for anyone who criticizes our blog – I am not just a snowlover – I love all the seasons. And frankly, the blog that criticized our blog – aren’t they blogging about the weather too? The only difference is that we talk about the models – which is good – because it’s knowledge and knowledge is always good.

    1. Right on rainshine! I was thinking that too, if they;re on a weather blog too, how can they criticize us? What I love about this blog is we are passionate about the weather. Sure we can get carried away and wish for snow and hang on every model run, but thats what makes it fun. People are generally happier if they are passionate about something in their lives. Some people its sports. How crazy do some people get about sports? or politics? or anything else for that matter? No different being passionate about weather than anything else in life. We all would be healthier if we were passionate about something bigger than us.

  52. Good morning, good ole mbta, ugh on the train with my wife, and we have been stuck on the train for 2 hrs, my wife says this happens all the time, I can’t believe she puts up with this, how painful, I thought Boston was supposed to have a great transit system, this is terrible

    1. There telling us that everyone has to get off the train lol, I’m demanding my money back, I feel like I’m in a 3rd world country, ugh

    1. I remember Norm McDonald.

      Mr. Doom And Gloom. He NEVER would forecast snow. Always had
      at least a mix or change over in the forecast. And a constant reminder
      that Boston only receives something like 20% of Winter precip in the form
      of Snow.

      A real Debby Downer was he.

  54. Regarding the coastline …… That would be bad !!

    Tide heights in Boston Harbor Thursday and Friday around 11am-noon are 12.3 and 12.4 ft, the highest possible tide heights. This is due to both a new moon that is also at perigee.

    On these type of tides, there is absolutely no room for ANY storm surge. With a light wind, the marshes are lakes, the water will crawl up into yards that are bordering marshes and at the beaches ….. the whole beach is usually briefly underwater.

    A 962 mb low with a storm surge would have major, major coastal impacts around noon Friday.

  55. Good morning.

    Thanks to JMA for a very insightful discussion.

    The 06Z GFS elongates the system some and start the precip much earlier.
    Even so it’s snowfall map is still impressive. Here it is: (Yes, we realize it 06Z)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013123006&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=114

    Here is the Euro close by (IT bombs out more as it passes, but this is still nice)
    That’s 968MB, if I am reading it correctly!

    http://i.imgur.com/D1irqpV.jpg?1

    Not for nothing, but the Euro shows a HUGE, extremely sharp temperature gradient
    at 850MB and a temperature gradient at 2M, the likes of which I have NEVER
    seen. -20C (-4F) at 495 belt to 0C (32F) or more just South of Boston.

    http://postimg.org/image/cd115zlm1/

    Can you imagine the COASTAL FRONT that would set up with this?????

    1. 0Z CMC has a decent system, a bit off shore:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&hh=096

      QPF map:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&lang=en&map=na

      That’s about 1 to 1.2 inches.

      Here’s the 0Z 15KM FIM:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2013123000/236/3hap_sfc_f102.png

      Here’s the 0Z 30KM FIMX:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fimx_zeus:&runtime=2013123000&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=102&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0

  56. I know the NAM is still at its far reaching range, but it is developing the storm in its early stages much like the GFS.

  57. Let the possibilities begin, I’m curious to see the trends in 48hrs on Thursdays models, I think my area could have mixing issues

    1. There is absolutely no evidence of mixing coming in to play for your area. Canal south to the islands maybe, but all snow north of there. The snow might be a little wetter but no mix

  59. Quebec, CA has a chance of breaking an “all time” low with temps falling below -36 degrees! That’s some serious cold weather!

  60. I would imagine that with the Arctic Air in place, and any wind off the ocean would develop ocean effect snow ahead of the actual storm center.

  61. Vicki …. Just disqualify me now from the seasonal snowfall total and possible anyone else thats within 10 inches of me. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  62. If those pressures fall with the developing low pressure center one of my favorite words is going be used BOMBOGENSIS!
    December 2005 Noreaster is a great example of Bombogensis.

  63. Oh great !!! 🙁 🙁 🙁

    If that 962mb scenario ever verified, Marshfield would be recovering from that into NEXT week …… Snow days ….. NO !!!!!!!!

  64. Snoworama! I am not getting too excited since its still a few days away but I think its safe to say we get some sort of an accumulating snow. I hope this storm does happen since I need a pick me up after another tough Cowboys loss in the final game of the regular season with a chance to go to the playoffs.

  65. 12Z NAM wants to give us some very light snow on new years eve as TK had alluded to. Dusting to an inch possible

    1. I know its not anything near what may be coming for later in the week, but might be just enough to make traveling a bit more difficult on an already difficult travel day/night

      1. John,

        You are so correct. I don’t drink, so who am I to judge,
        but that is just so dangerous to the driver and anyone
        else in the way.

        I can handle driving in the snow, but HOW does one handle
        some other imbecile on the road? Especially if they have
        been drinking????

        Let’s keep the appetizer away.

        1. Agree John and OS. We go out for an early (5:00 pm) dinner and are home by 6:30. If snow is in the picture, we may opt for plan B and have something here. I typically worry about the other driver in snow but Alcohol and driving in snow definitely doesn’t mix.

          1. We have dinner plans with friends at 6PM and will
            be out all evening.

            We’re not changing plans if it snows a little bit.

            I’ll have to be extra careful is all. 😀

        2. I don’t drink either oldsalty at all. I will judge because I know all to well Tuesday is a drinkers night and you will hear something about an alcohol related accident come Wednesday morning somewhere and adding snow into that is like adding fuel to the fire. Just my thoughts.

  68. Insane pressure would be a mess for the coastline. Very curious to see if 12Z gfs has anything similar to euro.

    1. I’m with you Hadi.

      Does the 12Z GFS bomb out a system or elongate it????

      Either way, we get snow, but one way we get SNOW!!! 😀

  70. IF and big if everything comes together just right POTENTIAL multiple impacts from this storm system but should it happen what a way to kickoff 2014 weatherwise.

    1. Hi JimmyJames – I have friends who are in Kennebunkport. They are trying to decide whether to return home (MA) before or after potential storm. Is the potential there for it to be bad (or worse) along the Maine coast?

      1. Hi Vicki…. There is potential up there for accumulating snow. I would stay tuned to future weather updates as
        this thing is going to change and is not set in stone. I would leave before the storm personally to get home.

  72. 12Z NAM out at 84 hrs has weaker elongated system, but by end of the run already has 6-8″ in boston and still coming down

      1. Tack on another 3-4″ to that and u have your foot+. Pretty consistent with gfs on snowfall accumulations

      2. In mu humble opinion (for what it is worth), I think that
        the NAM develops this system TOO FAR off shore.

        Whatever does develop, I think will be closer to shore than
        what the NAM is showing. Maybe not as close as the Euro,
        but no way it’s going to be as off shore as depicted by the NAM.

        We shall see.

        C’MON GFS get cranking.

          2. If we eliminate the 00Z euro’s outcome than there really isnt much divergence. I think we have to face the fact that the euro was an outlier. Now if the 12Z GFS shows a massive blizzard, then thats a different discussion all together

            1. I don’t know. Perhaps you are correct,
              however, even though the CMC and FIM
              don’t have the same monster the Euro does, they both offer something inbetween
              the GFS and NAM and the others.

              I still see quite a bit of divergence.

              You’d like to see a little bit more agreement. To be sure, all of the models
              won’t depict it the same, but a little
              more agreement would be nice. 😀

  75. Looking at the NAO outlook, there doesnt appear to be anything to discourage the continuing fast, progressive flow that we have seen all autumn and early winter. Nothing has really wrapped up or had any comma head with it. Things have always seemed to progress faster than originally thought.

    So …… the idea of an intense, wrapped up monster, even moving progressively seems hard to believe given what we’ve experienced so far. A more quickly moving, small to moderate impact event seems more plausible.

    Of course, who is to completely discard the EURO when it signals a monster days ahead of most other guidance …..

    1. What you say makes some sense. TK and Barry have suggested all along
      that it won’t be a monster, but a prolonged light to moderate event.

      As Barry said last night: “several inches”, whatever that means.

      (In the old days several used to mean about 6 inches or so)
      Dictionary Def: <i<Being of a number more than two or three but not many

      Pretty Vague, eh?

      😀 😀 😀

  77. NAO isnt hugely positive right now. Its also not hugely negative but hovering around neutral going every so slightly negative for the period of 1/1 – 1/7. Might not be full out blocking but not totally progressive either. I also recall somewhere saying there are several features present which can mimic blocking

  79. The NAO projection is close to where it was for the Blizzard in February. I am not saying were going to have a storm like that buts its interesting the NAO is close to where it was for that storm.

        3. Looks like 2 lows on there come up the coast, first one further out but the next one closer and keeps the snow going

  81. Thanks Coastal. I remember saying no way were going to get a big storm with the position of the NAO. Well we all know what happened and what an incredible storm that was.

      1. I didn’t say all ocean effect.

        And you are correct, it doesn’t explain that.

        I was speculating.

        Where is the lift coming from. TK???

    2. I’m having flashbacks to Johnny Carson’s Carnac the Magician.

      Carnac ….. NAM, GFS and EURO

      Ed McMahon …. NAM, GFS and EURO

      Carnac ….. Name me a sap, something thats full of crap and one that gets a bad rap.

  84. Thats a pretty huge shift. Heavy snowfall now down into NYC, NJ, philly, DC and even into MD, DE, and parts of Virginia

  85. This whole GFS solution is really weird. All of the main action is well off shore,
    yet we keep the snow going here until about 7PM on Friday. It is mostly light snow,
    probably with Visibility in the range of a mile or so, but over nearly 36+ hours,
    it will accumulate to over a foot.

    Here’s another look:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=096&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_096_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

  86. I have mixed reaction to this storm happening. my gut tells me its not join to happen. But H.M says he is going with the gfs over the euro, so you know we are going to get a blizzard. I call it the henry effect.

  87. At this point, I would not give credence to any single model. I kind of took a very non-scientific blend of them all in my head and came up with 8-12 inches. Don’t see a snow bomb coming, but I do see travel troubles all over the place if it’s a long storm.

    How many more swings in the models before Thursday?

    1. Probably MANY.

      However, one caveat here.

      The GFS has had 8 inches OR much more for about 4 days straight,
      run after run after run. And consistently 1 foot Plus for at least 2
      days running. (8 runs)

      The Euro has had it for days with varying amounts of snow but always
      around a foot or more.

      Something looks to happen. Which version do we get???
      😀 😀

  89. That GFS run is way up for me in CT. It had been showing a 6-8 inch snowfall for several runs before this one.
    The low pressure centers look to be way offshore almost in similar in position to that weird storm in March of last year with that storm so offshore by 600 miles yet many sections in eastern New England including Boston had double digit snowfall totals.

  91. From NWS this AM:

    TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ON THE ISLANDS…BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR LOWER WATER CONTENT TO THE SNOW…AND THUS A FLUFF FACTOR WHEN JUDGING ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS…THE EXPECTED MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

    2. JJ from the perspective of an average listener/viewer/whatever I am, I agree. I think there has to be a widespread 3 inches for it to be considered an event, 4-9 comes to mind when someone says several and 10 or more (maybe as
      Ace said 12 or more) comes to mind when the word significant is used.

  96. I would expect if these model trends to continue a hazardous weather outlook will be issued for more of SNE. There is one up for all four counties in southern CT along with the NYC area.

  98. Terry from BZ is calling this potential storm “very significant.” How are we going to define that? lol 🙂 He thinks there’s no possible scenerio where we don’t get at least 6-12.” I think thats a pretty good starting point, but hopefully a lot more!

  99. I remember back in the 80’s they would consider a 6 to 12″ storm as being major. 1 – 3″ was minor and 3 – 6″ was a moderate event.

  106. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 8m

    Breaking: 12z ECMWF snow bomb for I-95. 6-12″ DCA to NYC, 20″ BOS. (based on WSI snow algorithm) #snowblitz pic.twitter.com/FKADLaVH82

  110. TJ, 0z run had the low over Cape Cod, now it has it just SE of the benchmark.

    For Boston, QPF is similar but jackpot of heaviest snows is now over SNE, much less in NNE than the 0z run.

  111. I still believe the cold with move this southward some, the cold air is not gonna budge, should see trends south some the next 24 hrs IMO

    1. LMAO! Your a clown!

      Charlie says:
      December 30, 2013 at 8:53 AM

      Let the possibilities begin, I’m curious to see the trends in 48hrs on Thursdays models, I think my area could have mixing issues

    1. A ton of buckling there. Trying to figure out why no other models buckle the heights this much. Also, euro continues to show ONE fairly concentrated area of low pressure. Time will tell which outcome is correct and i hope we get a better picture by this time tomorrow

      1. Bc it has been terrible. Charlie you latch on to the solution you want and ignore everything else. Not once have you even mentioned the ukie.

    3. Hadi,

      Agree totally on Ukmet. Not so sure on CMC, except to say that
      recently (last couple of weeks) NOT much it put out verified. So in
      that sense I agree right now.

      How can we totally discount the Euro? Although, Not sure I like the
      shift South. What will happen with the 0Z run? More South? Hope not.

      We shall see.

      Generating much interest, that’s for sure! 😀

  118. Everything is not gonna be a perfect setup, look at the pattern, watch the trends, what u see today, will not be so big tomorrow at least for here IMO

    1. The point I was making was you went from mixing to a full arctic push of cold air moving it further south. Two opposing thoughts in less than 5 hours. Its like you can’t make up your mind which thing to say to get a rise out of some of the bloggers.

  123. The only realistic comment at this point is that we are somewhere between 6″ and a snow bomb. I am not even sure the models will settle down tomorrow.

  128. Euro is starting to get the right idea IMO.

    PV has the final say in this one.

    Doesn’t mean we can’t get several inches of snow over a couple days. Still working out those details.

    I’ll be back by 4PM.

    2. TK,

      When you say Euro is getting the right idea, do you mean
      that is has trended more off shore?

      Not sure what you mean by that?

      Thanks

  129. For lead on their websites…..

    4: ‘Very Significant’ Snow Coming
    5: 2-day nor’easter for back to work Thurs and Fri
    7: nothing

        1. I was actually surprised by both 4 and 5’s wording and having it pop up first thing. I expect to see that more at 7 as I know the network’s philosophy. Baileyman question Todd’s approach (4) for the wording. I agree.

          1. I agree, its usually 7 that makes its first headline. Maybe they;re slow over there cuz of the holiday?

  130. I dont really see anything that would cause this storm to go way out to sea to the point where we dont get significant snow

    1. That’s a significant shift to the south over previous, less in amount, and may not be the end of the trend.

      1. That’s where I though you were going with it.
        So you expect more of a shift such that we end up with
        something like a grand total of 6-8 inches?

        YUP, I’ll bethcha that is about the ball park you’re in. 😀 😀

  133. We gotta keep in mind the GFS’s cold southern bias. I think the GFS’s solution will come back north even though it trended south. Also we gotta keep in mind, even though it trended south and other models as well, still did not change snowfall amounts at all for us in SNE

  134. Eric Fisher Tweet:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m
    Don’t get too carried away by snowstorm info yet. Keep in mind it’s 3-4 days out. But 6″+ *at least* looks like a good bet w/coastal impact.

    1. The HYPE has officially begun! 😀 😀

      Re: Thursday
      There will be weather on Thursday, whether we like it or not!

  137. Depending on what model u look at for timing, if its going to start snowing lightly as early as thursday morning, than we’re really less than 3 days away

  139. Here is Eric’s latest Facebook post:

    Nothing says Happy New Year like frigid Arctic air and a snowstorm. Looking more likely that a significant storm will impact the Northeast Thursday/Friday. Not declaring a ‘French Toast Emergency’ yet, but make sure your snow-blowers work

  140. I think I like where I’m sitting for this next event. Heck, I dont think my area needs much synoptic snow. Just turn the wind NNE for 24 hrs and coastal South Shore and Cape Cod might get its own private snowstorm.

  141. So far, not impressed with the NAM. The northern stream energy is too far north and doesnt phase with the moisture to the south. Without that, we dont get much and southern system just slides out south of us

      1. True dat. Its better within 36 hrs anyways. Just trying to get a feel for how its treating certain features in the near term as clues to later

    1. I can tell you what an ensemble mean is:

      Take all of the ensemble runs and average them together.

      An ensemble control I guess would be each individual ensemble run
      where certain parameters are initialized slightly differently. I don’t
      pretend to know which parameters or how much the changes are.

      But I would imagine it would be things like initial pressures, temperatures, wind directions and speeds etc.

      The idea is, the more ensemble members that indicate an event will happen,
      the greater confidence. IF ensembles are all over the place, it is rough to
      predict what will happen.

      Just my thoughts.

  145. I was just on ch 5 website, hoping to get a peak at Harvey’s thoughts.

    They have a snowmap, with a 10-14 inch area of snow from northern mass to central nh. 8-12 in Boston, 4-8 southern New England.

    Is this an old snow map or new ?

    2. Regarding the quick jump by ch5. I havto say I’m somewhat shocked at this and am wondering if it came from Harvey or wankum. It is very unusual for Harvey to call for a two day nor’easter on Monday for a Thursday storm, I’ve never seen him go out on a limb like that.

  147. Ok …..here’s what I think I’ve learned today.

    Big, big cold airmass in southern Canada into New England.

    Convergence zone or baroclinic zone, setting up west to east, south of New England.

    Initial disturbance coming in from the west, riding along it, potentially starting up some snow as early as Thursday morning.

    Stronger southern disturbance approaching from the southwest of New England, with nearly all signs to it remaining fairly well S and E.

    I dont think the mountains or central New England get very much out of this at all. That arctic, dry air will eat away at the northern precip shield.

    I think the jackpot area is SE Mass and Cape Cod, maybe Cape Ann. These areas seem to have the best chance of getting clipped from the stronger southern disturbance and also have a good chance at seeing snow with NNE winds of frigid air riding over 43F ocean water.

    Maybe an advisory snow 2-5 inches in southern New England, very little in Maine, NH, VT with the wild cards being Cape Ann, SE Mass and Cape Cod where a lot more is possible.

    I know, way too early to throw that detail out there, but I’ll be stubborn and do it anyway. 🙂 🙂

    1. Nice summary. See my thoughts below. Jury’s out on the heaviest amount area. It may not end up being southern areas depending on where that axis ends up.

  148. Is it possible that, at least out here towards worcester/westboro, that we see ratios in this storm of 20-1?

  149. Making some assumptions that the GFS is a little too fast, and the Euro is a little too slow and the NAM is slightly confused with the puzzle pieces, here is a summary of early thoughts I have on this threat.

    *A winter weather threat was identified and has been followed for several days now, regarding January 1-4 time frame.

    *We can now narrow it down a little more to the nighttime of January 1 through at least the middle of January 3.

    *Arctic cold is a certainty.

    *Not expecting a bomb of a low pressure area. It’s going to be hard to do that with this set-up, in which blocking is NOT ideal, even though we do have a nice PV in southeastern Canada. Unless a lobe of vorticity and a short-wave rotates around the base of the PV and catches southern stream energy at just the right time, getting a huge bomb is almost impossible for this area. Is it possible the Euro is right on the money? Given its track record, never count it out completely, but this time, I don’t think it’s quite on the money.

    *Is it possible that northern MA and southern NH get more snow than areas to the south? YES. Why? Because there may be a very significant strip of mid level forcing/instability that parks itself over northern MA and southern NH (based on where I think things line up now).

    *Who else gets in on the bigger snow amounts? East-facing coastal areas, because of ocean-enhancement.

    *Long duration event potential from as early as Wednesday evening first flakes to Friday evening final flakes. But it WILL NOT snow heavily during all of this time over all of the area. In fact, light or moderate snow will probably be the rule more often than heavy, and we’ll have to watch for where heavy bands form and set up.

    *Not time for solid snowfall range forecasts just yet. Perhaps I’ll take a stab with an update later this evening, certainly by tomorrow. Potential for 6+ most areas given how the ratios will be with the cold. It won’t take much QP to get to 6.

    *Even if we get 6+, remember this is not coming in a 3 hour burst like the super-clipper storm of December 17. This will be over a period of nearly 2 days. People will try to verify the storm totals about 6 hours into it when they only have an inch on the ground, and say that the forecasts were wrong. It happens every time.

    *Saturday morning may be below zero in much of the region, and that may not be the coldest punch of air, with the potential for an even colder air mass sometime later next week.

    *Despite this upcoming threat, we are STILL in a long term dry pattern, though it will likely be illustrated how we can be “dry” in the long term and still get 2 rainstorms and above normal snow amounts over a period of 3 weeks. These perturbations in a long term pattern are common.

    I’ll be around the blog all night.

    1. Thanks for sharing TK. Very nicely done. Pretty much sums it all up. 😀

      I honestly think that the ocean enhancement along coastal areas are possibly
      being underplayed. You certainly have included it in your discussions, but in
      some areas this enhancement could be substantial, especially if 2m temps
      are as cold as I think they might be. (Surface temps in the teens, 850MB temperatures in the teens with Water temp at 43)

      We shall see. Could get pretty hairy.

  150. You can go to this site for channel 5 and click over on the right side of the map about 7 or 8 clicks and you will come to their snow map which lines up with TK’s comments on what amounts will fall where.

    http://www.wcvb.com/weather/maps

    It puts a long strip of 8-12″ through the center of the state including Boston. It has 10-14″ in No MA and southern NH, and the most southeast portions of MA get 4-8.”

      1. That would be relatively easy to handle though. 6 to hypothetically 12 inches of powder over a full day and a half.

        No piece of cake, but no December 17 either. 🙂

        BTW Scott glad you made it thru the semester. One step closer to becoming a Winter Weather Expert (and trust me you’ll learn more outside of school than in, regarding your direction). Best of luck going forward from here and enjoy your break!

        1. That may drag me to grad school if I am really starving for more at the end of my senior year. Wxchallenge has really aided in my forecasting abilities, great results from it so far. In top 100 overall after 10 weeks of forecasting in 5 cities. Thanks for the extra optimism!

    1. There is your ocean-enhancement. And pay close attention to the fact that the orientation of the heavier snow bands on the snow map is mostly W to E, not “up the coast”. This is NOT going to be a classic, but a hybrid. In fact one of the only things that will likely be perfect is the placement of the Arctic high and associated cold air.

      1. How far west will the ocean enhanced snow go? Those snowmaps look like they bring it as far west into central MA.

        1. Ocean-enhancement would largely be noticed within 20 miles of the coast. Enhancement would be possible on eastern slopes of hills and mountains due to orographic lift.

  154. TK your explanation makes me think driving will not be as horrendous as it would if this occurred in a 3 or even 6-8 hour time period. Is it possible it has a low impact on rush hours/work and any schools in session.

    Thank you for your very detailed summary

    1. Exactly. It doesn’t mean that a burst of heavy snow won’t make things very dicey for the area it occurs, but a longer, drawn out snow event that is well-forecast will allow crews to be much more able to keep up. You won’t have a pre-Christmas rush hour nightmare in which plows are stuck in the back-up (even though people are complaining because they are nowhere to be seen – LOL).

  155. UGH. The TV guys are putting #’s on it.

    Glad they feel so confident with model spread of hundreds of miles on a low center and timing differences of nearly 24 hours.

    There is a reason I used the word “hypothetically” above.

    The only thing I feel ok with is 6+ broad-brushed so far, because almost every scenario I can think of gets us that much anyway.

    2. Tk I still find it hard to believe that 5 is talking numbers like that on Monday. If it came from Harvey we both know that’s not his style.

      1. Agree.

        I don’t want to bad-mouth anybody out there on the air.

        I just don’t agree with the methods being used, and yes I do realize it is done with pressure by the “boss”.

        That’s why you won’t see me on TV. I’d get let go for speaking my mind to my higher ups. 😉

  156. TK do you think this storm will be similar to the one we had in march where the storm was far away but still was dumping good snow!? I know the 18z gfs is not reliable but os posted it and the storm was far away but still is dumping good snow

    1. Even though at first glance it looks similar on the map, it’s not the same thing. The snow from that thing last winter came from very far away to the east, with a low center so far away it was practically in another hemisphere. It was a rather unusual set-up. This set-up, if it pans out the way I think it may, is a large-scale, long-duration event with help from high pressure to the north, ocean enhancement from onshore wind pushing Arctic air over the relatively mild water, and mid level forcing setting up in a band somewhere over southern New England.

  157. This is why I don’t watch the news, tv ratings, and most watching don’t want snow, so when they cut back accumulations tommorrow, it makes the watcher happy and so on and so on, it’s funny, ill wait till tomorrow

  158. Arctic high is near perfect. Plenty of cold air place and it not going to be eroded during the storm’s duration.

    The feature creating the biggest difference in the ECMWF compared to the consensus GFS/GEFS/NAM/SREF is how deep the trough is at 500mb and how rapidly the ECMWF deepens the low, that is ejecting from the mid-Atlantic, essentially right over the benchmark.

    The ECMWF does have consistency issues. The 12z is actually 150 miles or so south of the 00z. 12z ECMWF ensemble delivers between 9-18″ throughout SNE.

    Early call for me is a long duration event from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon. Mostly light to some moderate snow from the northern shortwave that will create vertical lift which will combine with the arctic boundary to our south and an increasingly brisk NE Flow off the ocean to enhance and elongate the accumulating snow. The longer duration moderate snow maybe limited to a narrow stripe of increased lift that sets up in NE MA or SNH.

    I think a general 6-12 would be a good early call at 60 hours before the snow falls. I also think the impact of this storm might be somewhat limited. Long duration, mostly light dry snow falling over 36 hours is fairly easily handle for our very efficient public works professionals.

      1. It is not a typical way to get significant snowfalls in SNE, but I don’t think it is tough forecast unless you go all in with the ECMWF 6o hours out…I am actually concerned with less snow falling and not more…loss of early snow fall to dry air, narrow stripe of enhanced snowfall sets up outside of the SNE forecast area, etc.

    2. It’s still alot to keep up with and longer storm is longer hrs for the crews that’s how I see it as I work all weather storms. Your posts are very educating and I am just wondering are you a met in the field.

      1. John, somewhere in the archives here I wrote about my background. But, yes I am a degreed meteorologist with a BS from North Carolina State and an MS from the University of Wisconsin. I worked for Weather Central in Madison Wisconsin, then for the the NWS in Camp Spring Maryland for 11 years, then moved home to New England and worked for Weather Central running their forecasting operation for their Northeast Private Client group and consulting and training for their Northeast media clients and I worked on the CASA project as a meteorology consultant to their talented team of programmers and engineers. Weather Central was then purchased by WSI and I left the new organization. I now teach for the 5 college consortium and have expanded my work for CASA.

        1. I must have missed that post. Wow!! Quite the resume JMA. We are very luck that you come here and post your thoughts and I thank you for that. So you think boston and going down through the south shore may have less snow maybe if I was reading that correct due to dry air.

  159. Varying solutions for post storm. GFS has graze by a coastal low with most of SNE remaining dry Monday morning. ECMWF has a vigorous low driving up the to the west of Hudson River line and pushing the 540 line all the way to the VT/NH Canadian border with lots of rainfall. Not sure I buy that solution yet. Guess I am really struggling with ECMWF’s view of life right now….I do think the coldest air of the season infiltrates SNE sometime late in the first full week of January

    1. I was just ranting on FB to one of my colleagues about that. 😀

      And I also am not sure about the ECMWF. Also agree with that bitter cold potential you mentioned (I posted briefly about it above).

      Have a great night. Looking forward to your comments as we get closer to the event, if you can contribute them.

      1. You too. Tomorrow morning I should have some time, then kind of tied up until daytime New Years Day. Please keep us updated with your thoughts. You don’t know how much I respect your thought process when it comes to forecasting sensible weather outcomes.

  161. I already miss Matt Noyes’s afternoon/evening weather segments, real unfortunate he got moved. I just realized that ch 4 and 5 don’t start at 4PM anymore<—–shows how little I rely on tv mets these days.

    Of course I cannot get my mind off the Euro's torching rain event next week…although if it's clueless for this week's event, then everything after should be discarded.

  162. I knew it as it just did not make sense with ch5. It’s wankum on not Harvey forcasting. Wankum has boston in 8-12 zone but just said after reviewing the latest information he may raise it?

  163. I will say tonight’s 00z runs will be telling. If euro holds again with same system then IMO it’s can’t be ignored at all. That would 3 runs in a row.

    1. The thing is, the Euro did not completely hold on the 12z, it shifted south, even though the solution still produces much snow.

      It’s not locked in.

        1. If you interpret that map verbatim, taking the base ratio into account and adjusting for the cold, then yes, they are.

          The problem is, I don’t believe that this model is forecasting the correct totals.

  165. The trend sure has been south and east so lets what happens over the next 24 hours. Who knows it could miss us completley.

  167. Hadi,

    I’m with you. IF Euro does NOT slip farther East or South, then watch out.
    However, that being said, my fear is it comes more in line with GFS and FIM. 😀

    March onward you 0Z Runs!!!!

  168. FWIW, this from NWS:

    CANNOT YET DISMISS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
    WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND.

  171. I like the 18z GFS. That is two runs in a row showing a foot of snow for me here in CT. I think its going to be less than that though. Just have this feeling of a weaker system then what some models are saying. If I had to throw out number I would go with a 5-10 inch snowfall.

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