It’s Getting Snow Cold!

743 Comments

7:31AM

An Arctic cold front passed through southern New England late Monday, and will now serve as the track for an express train low pressure area developing  off the Mid Atlantic Coast and traveling southeast of New England tonight through early Wednesday. Moisture from this system combined with the much colder air now in this region will produce a moderate to heavy snowfall in most of southeastern New England late today into early Wednesday.

The specifics of the snowfall…

*Starts over the South Coast by mid afternoon and overspreads all of RI and southern MA by sunset, then expands northward to include all of RI, eastern MA, and southern NH by early evening.

*Ends west to east during Wednesday morning.

*Blowing and drifting snow because of moderate to strong and gusty northerly wind.

*Blizzard conditions may occur along the South Shore of MA tonight.

*Very cold air, temperatures in the teens to single numbers most of the storm, wind chills often near to below zero.

*Snow accumulations: 5-10 inches most of the region except under 5 inches north central MA and southwestern NH and some areas of 10-12 inches or slightly greater in coastal southeastern MA. Remember to focus on ranges and not the high number.

*Coastal flooding: Minimal.

*Power outages: Minimal.

After the storm… Arctic air dominates – dry and very cold weather through Friday, moderating slightly Saturday but with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes through the region, then windy with a new cold air mass arriving by the end of the weekend and early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing across RI and southern MA by mid afternoon then progressing northward through eastern MA by dark or shortly thereafter. Highs 15-20, lower 20s South Coast. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest coastal and southeastern areas, with blizzard conditions possible at times South Shore. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-15. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to around or over 30 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH with gusts around or over 40 MPH coast, especially South Shore through Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with snow tapering off west to east morning. Clearing afternoon though clouds and snow showers lingering Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 10-15. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH. Blowing and drifting snow.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 0. High 15.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.

743 thoughts on “It’s Getting Snow Cold!”

  3. TK, happy birthday to your mom!

    Just took a 4 mile walk and it is cold but really no wind. Off to my consulting assignment in Boston .. can’t think about my commute home …UGH!!

    1. I suspect my homeward commute to be bad as well. I won’t be leaving work until around midnight…maybe 11:30 if I am lucky.

  4. Thanks TK for the update. Excellent analysis on your forecast above! 🙂

    JR has 12-18″ for the entire Cape from the Canal eastward.

  5. It sure has that snow feel and the slivery snow sky.

    All three stations have moved numbers up since yesterday noon. Ch 7 has the biggest range with 3-5 north of pike/rt 2 and 12-18 on cape.

    Nice the south shore is getting its share !!

    This reminds me of the winter of 2007-2008. Not so much for total but that it seemed every time we turned around there was a storm on the horizon.

  6. I think they will continue to move numbers up throughout the day imo. Based on nam and gfs you can see how the nw flank is increasing snow totals.

  7. Just look at the position of the arctic front and you can see to the nw of that location the big totals. I am still thinking 12+ will be common.

    1. I realy want to see how things develop later this afternoon.
      It really hasn’t gotten going yet. When this system hits the coast, it
      should explode. Lots of dynamics plowing into that arctic air. 😀 😀

  11. After reviewing the guidance, i have no reason to change my thinking of 12 + for boston, I 95 and SE. There will be a few totals that surprise people. Dont be concerned with current radar. Radar watching wont get fun until mid and late afternoon. I also think main event begins two hours ahead of current forecasts.

  16. “Saturday but with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes through the region…”

    I’ve heard this before…this means another foot 🙂

  17. South Shore gets hammered. 12-16 inches
    Boston looks to be right on the edge, but still looks to be 12 inches.

    As Hadi indicated, sharp cut off. “Should” this move a bit more to the East, Boston
    could be left hanging. But, the good news is this is a rather substantial increase
    over the 0Z run and the 06 Run as well. Note the 06Z run was UP from the 0Z run also.

    New trend to more qpf. 😀 😀 😀

    Let’s see IF the 12Z GFS is on board.

  19. With Logan now standing at 29.2″ of snow so far, should Boston get a foot, it will already be near normal snowfall for an entire season. Normal for Logan is 43.7″.

    So much for the “mostly dry” pattern TK? 😉

      1. Yes, in fact JR said yesterday that the pattern should last for the next 1-2 weeks for the rest of the month. 🙂

  21. A couple bullesye areas with the latest NAM run. Southeastern New England which I still believe will have a level 3 snowfall when all is said and done plus inches. Boston area going with a high end level 2 snow event but may very well make it to a level 3. The other bullseye across Long Island.
    I am curious with the 12z GFS since the 6z run was projecting a foot of snow just to the east of me in CT. Still that NAM run was good for me with more than 6 inches.
    I hope there are some surprises with winter storm Chester.

  26. Phillip that is correct. There last day they had an accumulating snow of 2 inches or greater was January 26, 2011 which had a big impact on the evening commute. D.C. has very little snow the past couple of winters. The last time they had above normal snowfall for the season was the winter of 09-10.

    1. Nice. I saw that last evening actually.

      I think Eric Fisher put that together.

      He is really good. Even better than I thought he might be.

      Channel 4 has themselves a REAL WINNER in my book. 😀

      1. I agree. I’m trying to remember to not only read his blog but to comment and thank him. He gets a lot of negative feedback as I’m sure you know. The funny thing is I’ve seen him ask if they actually read the blog. Hysterical. And he also interacts with posters when they ask questions. He’s on his way to being my favorite met………..well, no one will ever surpass Pete but you know what I mean 😯

  28. Sun out rather brightly here. Looks like DRY AIR is wiping out the moisture
    from advancing cloud deck. I sure hope this system moves in close enough to
    overcome this dry air.

  29. I mentioned this the other day but everytime we have had an accumulating snow event this winter the two in December and the one earlier this month is how cold it has been with temps in the teens and in some places single digits. I don’t remember the last time we had a situation where there multiple accumulating snow events with temps that cold. It has made snow removal easy since you don’t get that heavy wet cement snow with temps so low.

    1. JJ it feels to me like the snow I remember skiing up north as a youngster…..where the snow actually squeeks when you walk on it. I don’t remember that here very often either.

  31. NWS upgraded the watch in southern NH to a warning for 4-8 so I am guessing they are going with the higher end everywhere else.

  33. Patience everyone with the progress, it will take time. Once storm gets going the atmosphere will juice up.

  37. JJ, looking at NYC Nexrad, “Just” about to snow in your area. Really picking up
    and heading North. It has expanded North of poughkeepsie and into Western CT.
    Also moving into South Coast RI and MA and Cape.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=0&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

    One more thing to Note: Wind is MOSTLY straight out of the NORTH across the area.
    Certainly better than NW or NNW. IF we can only get it to be a little bit East of North.

    I’ll take 20 or even 10 degrees. Anything to get a component off of the water. 😀 😀 😀

  38. Old Salty its snowing down in Greenwich right now which is in the southwestern part of CT. The thinking is a 5-8 inches snowfall with the highest totals in the southeastern parts of the state where they could get 10 inches.

  41. Update from the NWS

    10 AM UPDATE…HAVE UPGRADED HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY TO A WINTER
    STORM WARNING AND CHESHIRE COUNTY TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
    HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SNOWFALL TOTALS…INCREASING THEM A BIT
    THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE RANGES ON THE WEBSITE
    HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO THE NEXT RANGE…SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE ONLY
    BEEN INCREASED 1-2 INCHES. FURTHER UPDATES MAINLY TO POPS WILL BE
    COMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER…THEY LOOK REASONABLE FOR
    THE MOMENT.

  42. Look how tightly wound that low pressure center is on that model run which indicates to me this low will be strengthening as it goes just south and east of the benchmark. Without any blocking in place there could be some pretty impressive snowfall totals.

  45. Looked at some 10AM obs in NJ.

    Many stations are reporting MODERATE SNOW with VIS .5 miles. 😀 😀

    Not bad, considering this thing hasn’t even begun to get percolating. 😀

        1. What do I mean?
          You posted a twitter post from this guy.
          We don’t know who he is.

          I looked him up and I see that he is a New Jersey Met.
          That is all I wanted to know.

          😀

          1. Dave Curren
            @DaveCurren
            Trying to keep the forecasts for NJ to 144 characters or less would be easier if I could just talk w/ my hands. Jersey born, Emmy nominated Meteorologist
            New Jersey

    2. BTW, I don’t see that at all.

      the HRRR I can look at have the pressure falls out over the ocean, just
      as depicted on the other models.

  49. I have upped my amounts to 7-11″ for the Boston area, still thinking wind will impact ratios a bit and QP will struggle to reach .5″ in Boston. In fact, the 06z BTV WRF has the .5″ QPF contour only up to Quincy. Pockets of .75″ QPF pop up on the south shore and towards the cape due to ocean enhancement, which is where the jackpot amounts will be. Enjoy the snow if you are a snow lover! I won’t be getting a flake up here!

  53. Snowing on the cape…They are going to get alot!! Most days I would be really looking forward to the snow but I have been stricken with the Flu so not looking forward to shoveling it..

  54. After again glancing over models, everything looks right, I’m not changing a thing, I think this is what everyone receives, enjoy!!

    8-10 in Boston to 128, 6-8 128 to 495, 495 westward 2-4, Quincy southward to the cape 12-15 inches, from Boston southward to Providence and along the I95 corridor 7-9.

  60. NOT liking the general almost straight Eastward motion of these echoes.
    NOT AT ALL.

    Let’s hope they turn soon as Low Pressure makes it way to the coast
    and TURNS more northeastward.

      1. Boston Dew Point -5, temp 15.

        Wind has come around to NORTH at the airport.

        Newark, NJ Moderate Snow
        New York City, Laguaria, Moderate Snow
        Islip, Long IS NY, light snow, 1 mile vis
        White Plains, NY, light snow, 1 mile vis
        Bridgeport, CT, light snow, 4 mile vis
        Danbury, CT, light snow, 1.75 mile vis

        It’s getting close, but NOT close enough yet.

    3. Very low dewpoints, RH in the mid 40 %’s …… lots of N and NW winds.

      Lots to overcome. Still liking my snow guesses.

  61. Looking at current trends I think the low passes about 150-175 mi SE of Cape Cod. The best banding will set up to the N, NE the low center which would be Long Island, SE CT, South Coast of RI and MA to Cape Cod and just north into extreme SE MA. Picture a diagonal line SE to NE.

    Best forcing would be and temps at 500-700mb would support 20:1 in the banding areas. Not sure that is meant in a very wide area. A N, NNW flow seems to prominent which is going to prevent 20:1+ ratios.

    Blended NAM/GFS QPF and applying an appropriate LER, of about 30% over climo, of 15:1 region wide would support the following accumulations

    Cape Cod 12-14″
    SE CT, S RI, SE MA to a Plymouth line 8-10″
    North of Plymouth, Metro Boston, 128/95 7-9″
    495 N&W, Worcester 5-7″
    Hartford, Springfield 3-6″
    Berkshires 2-4″

    Start times in the areas most people live or at least impactful snowfall should still hold off until 3-5pm time frame. Cape and far south communities will be in the 11 to noon range but their will be little northward march of that precip in the early hours.

    1. I don’t agree.

      It ALL means something.

      I do agree, that we won’t see much up this way, UNTIL this baby
      turns the corner and heads up the coast.

      The question is, just how far off shore does it travel???

      Too far and all bets are off and that is my concern.

      I watch the radars now to see trends. Looking for that turn that I have
      not seen yet. 😀

  63. SREF busting real bad already in WVA and VA areas. I dont think anyone actually thought the SREF was even close to being correct anyway, BUT amounts are being lowered quite drastically in those parts.

  64. Some heavier echoes now showing on NYC radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=0&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

    1. Nice discussion.

      I like:

      LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNSET…WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED
      TO BECOME WELL-DEFINED N/NW OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.

        1. Yeah I love the fluff but this year it has always come with wind…wonder if it’s even worth snow blowing.

        1. will be interesting to see schools open or closed… at least on the north shore…. Probably mostly closed as you head south shore.

  70. What do u think for Providence? Could they get more snow than Boston for once this winter? Or does the infamous snow hole make an appearance again

    1. I have providence in the 8-10″ range and when I calculated it out PVD came in at 8.8″ so I have them in a heavier accumulation stripe than metro Boston.

        1. And Framingham 😉 Sue, would tea at your house work – I think you are going to have a lot more fun than I am !!

  74. I still think from Boston south totals will surprise people, I guess I could be wrong which would not surprise me 🙂

    1. I’m on the fence.

      I know I was calling for 12+ yesterday.
      Not liking this super dry air and the sharp Cut off.

      I would like to see some evidence that the precip shield is moving
      More to the North that currently.

      It “may” still do that, OR this could become a Cape Cod Storm. 😀 😀

      I really could NOT predict an amount at the moment.

      If you stuck a gun to my head, I’d have to back off from yesterday and say
      8 or 9 inches for Logan.

      More later.

    1. Not really as you seem to be going back and forth. So whats your call for
      Boston 12+ 10 which one as im curious. Im guessing Boston does not get 10.

        2. That’s cool hadi. You just said you had a bet on 10 inches and this morning saying you we’re not budging. Time will tell stay safe. Jackpot still SS and cape.

  81. Suns been out all morning shining through the clouds, just recently has it gone behind the clouds.

    Still no snow to this point

    1. Interesting on the flu bug. Seems to be hitting later than planned. We already ran out of flu vaccine (and we doubled our order from last year).

      1. I got the Flu shot back in November and yesterday my doctor told me I have the Flu that wasn’t covered by the shot and I had to wear a mask in the office…It was pretty embarrassing.

        1. It happens each year its a crap shoot with the manufacturers to cover what they believe will be the main type of flu…sometimes they win…sometimes not.

  84. *********************ATTENTION**************************
    First flakes are now falling in Norwood. Very small and far apart.

    1. I don’t know why I just thought of this other than Norwood is right next to Walpole but I haven’t been down to the Red Wing in years….gotta go there soon 🙂

    1. It’s is…but the radar does have a northward expansion to it compared to when I looked about 30 minutes ago

      1. It is ocean effect. That shows it moved into the norwood area and the snow has become slightly heavier to a constant flurry now.

  92. I agree it’s having a tough time moving northward, but that’s expected, if its still like that in a few hours, then adjustments will have to be made.

  95. It’s been snowing lightly in Manchester, CT (10 mi east of Hartford) for the past 45 min. Walkways and cars are lightly coated in white.

  96. Love this recent statement from the NWS in Mt Holly, NJ. Makes this storm sound almost as bad as the dreaded Polar Vortex!

    AT 1220 PM EST…A DANGEROUS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WAS ALONG THE
    INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS AND IS SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.
    SNOWFALL RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND. THIS DANGEROUS BAND IS SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT.

  99. Nws tweet I wonder where it set up exactly.

    @NWSBoston: Expecting the snowband to evolve S&E of a line from the Boston- to NYC-metro w/ 1-2″/hr snow rates & near-blizzard conditions.

  103. Mark good to hear from you. Its been snowing lightly here where I am in Watertown, CT for about two hours. The roads are coated.

  106. Still worried about that sharp cut off.

    Hadi, do you have the Euro qpf? Looks lower to me as main thrust
    of storm is OTS. Looks pretty intense, though.

    Canadian is about 10-15 mm and the Ukmet is under 10mm

    That would be “about” .4 to no more than .6

    1. If ratio is truly 20:1. What if only 15:1 then only 6 inches. 😀

      My main concern is the bleepity bleep bleep Euro.

      It develops a really nice system, but takes it more ENE out to SEA to SHINING SEA!!!

  111. I believe between the hours of 3-4pm we will see this really overspread the area, depending how far north the heavy bands make it depends on heaviest amounts, it’s really looking like Plymouth to Taunton to New Bedford eastward r gonna receive jackpot, a lot of 12-15 amounts there, that’s becoming high confidence IMO 🙂

  114. Matching radar with EURO just doesn’t add up to me. Storm looks to develop closer than the EURO is showing

  115. 16Z HRRR total snowfall in inches as of 07Z tonight or 2AM, I believe

    GEE, a whopping 2-3 inches for Boston.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014012116/full/acsnw_sfc_f15.png

    Yet look at this total precip map:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014012116/full/totp_sfc_f15.png

    I’m sorry, but this shows .25 to .5 inches. At 20:1 that is 5-10 inches.
    at 15:1 it is 3-7 or 4-8 inches.

    This does NOT compute. Does not compute. Does not compute. 😀 😀 😀

  116. In just a few hours, OS will be chanting wholy crap batman. Snow amounts will verify. We just need patience.

    1. Hope you’re right. NOT convinced just yet. Sorry.
      We shall see.

      Still VERY concerned about that sharp cut off.

      I am somewhat encouraged by the HRRR model runs. 😀 😀 😀

        2. Arod,

          I wish I shared in your confidence.
          I truly hope your are correct.

          I’m still watching for signs.

          I do NOT like what I see so far. Of course it is subject
          to change and I hope it does. 😀

  117. The WFO BTV 4km WRF Model has Plymouth, MA as the absolute WINNER
    with .75 inch qpf. Boston under .5

  118. Models clearly hinting that it will be tough to get the 12+ into Boston but I am not sold yet on much lower numbers.

  119. Nice graphic Mark. Really shows how narrow the area of heavy accumulating snow really is. If you’re not under that band all bets are off.

    1. That band grows through the overnight. You are only looking at a snap shot of the storm in its primitive stage.

  121. I just back from doing some errands. It is bitterly cold out and the sky looks weird. You can actually see the sun – a little yellow disc in a gray sky. Looks and feels like a snowstorm.

    1. That is a real BUMMER.

      Reflecting what I have been worried about.

      Hey this storm has wiggled and wobbled, perhaps there is a surprise left.

      😀

      1. I am still seeing the same thing I saw a while ago … an east -north-east track but more of a push to the north and ever so slightly west. Maybe OS I am saying the same thing as you.

  129. for those north of the pike will be disapointed
    10+ parts of Plymouth, southern RI, southeast Ct.
    6-10 south of the pike/ east of i95(generally)
    3-6 north of the pike up to mass/NH/vt boarder(mainly lower end)
    1-3 extreme northwest mass.
    not posting a map till early this evening. Look for those winter storm warnings north of the pike to be down graded to winter weather advisories.

    1. Matt, ive been thinking the same thing, i was surprised at the time when i heard WSW’s in southern NH and im surprised they’re still current

  130. Light flurries/snow ……… it has begun in Marshfield.

    I think the NWS is starting to get the idea, but they need to tighten and compact that northern edge of their snowfall projection, a lot !!!!

  132. this is why i hope cape and the islands, parts of southeast mass are getting rain for this one reason, this would mean the heavy snow up here and not down there 🙂

    1. Agree with your assessment, Matt. In fact, I don’t think any accumulating snow falls in most of Vermont and New Hampshire (southern fringes get some). I had Boston at 8″, but I’m lowering that to under 6″, with a mere 4″ in places like Concord, Ma. I am thinking Quincy down to CC, along the coast, does fairly well (8″-12″). Chatham, C Cod gets the jackpot at 15″. Most QPF on Nantucket (>1QPF), but with wetter snow not as good a ratio as Chatham.

      This is NOT a classic nor’easter, just as our previous arctic storm wasn’t. It’s a nice treat, nonetheless.

      1. Josh I don’t think boston comes in at under 6 inches. Scratching my head with that. But who knows. It’s all a guess. Take care.

        1. You may be right. In fact, I’m more uncertain about my Boston prediction than the others I listed. I am thinking that the definitions of coast and inland will need to be very granular indeed. Logan is clearly coast, and may wind up with several inches more than, say, Back Bay, Allston, Brighton.

  133. JMA ….

    I went …..

    2″ Lowell
    4″ at cloverleaf (rte 128 and 93 intersection)
    5.5″ at Logan
    8″ Marshfield
    general 10″ on Cape Cod with 12″ max in Sandwich.

      1. I was hoping showing up here too would be a good sign that it’s moving more north than it seems to appear on the links you’ve been showing

    1. I like the looks of this display better. Somehow it looks snowier. 😀

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  136. Out here towards Westborough we aren’t going to get a ton of QPF but I’m banking on high ratios (>20 to 1) to get us over 6 inches of snow. NYC is at 17 degrees right now getting 20 to 1 ratios, and it’s gonna drop to 7-8 degrees during the peak of the storm here (13 degrees right now)

        2. It is snowing so lightly here that I had to go outside to see it. It’s almost just floating in the air it’s so light

  139. Looks at the radar links OS provided, it looks like it lines up just to about boston NNE to WSW. But I also see a push to the north which should included Boston in that heavier band.

    1. Yes, That’s what it looks like to me. We shall find out soon enough.
      I guess this is what’s called NOWCASTING!!

      Btw, it just got noticeably DARKER here. Amazing.
      It’s ready to start that’s for sure. Any moment now. The anticipation
      is killing me.

  140. I vote OTS…don’t need any more days home with the kids. Who’s with me??? (insert cricket noises and a few random tumbleweeds).

  142. I know models are unimportant right now, especially an 18Z, but the NAM stays course, no change from the 12Z

  143. 5 second check-in.

    Mostly on track, may trim some off on the amounts to the N and NW later and add a touch to the far SE (Cape Cod).

    Early guess…

    Manchester NH – 4
    Boston MA – 8
    Chatham MA – 14
    Worcester MA – 5

    Be back later!

  144. WeatherWiz, I am with you. Don’t want to waste a vacation day because I can’t get out of my own street in Woburn at 6 a.m. I’d rather spend that vacation day in Gloucester in June.

  145. I hope this thing just surprises us all, tracks like 50 miles more north/northwest and dumps on metrowest/worcester

    1. I agree totally.

      Btw, looking at the latest radar loops (nowcasting) it REALLY LOOKS INTERESTING.

      It SURE looks like the HEAVY BAND is going to expand right into the Boston area JUST Like AROD predicted. 😀 😀

      1. Also, maybe this is just wishcasting but the positioning of the low according to surface maps at 18z seems slightly west/NW of where the models had forcasted it for the same time

  146. My earlier timing is very much on track and so is my call for 11.2 inches in Boston with more to the south. All systems go.

    1. My friend, I think you may have nailed this (Hadi too).
      That band appears to be expanding right into the Boston area and
      QUICKLY I might add.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  148. Most obs now in eastern MA show rising dew points and relative humidities. Also of note, I see a lot of wind reports from the N and NNE 😀

  151. We are into that “heavier band” seen on the radar now in Manchester, CT. The snow has picked up in intensity but still not coming down terribly hard. Roads, parking lots and car tops are white but have less than 1/2″ of accumulation so far. Snow not even covering up the grass yet.

  152. wind turning NNE. No surprise here. As i said, give it time. Now you all may observe radar trends. 😀

  156. have had no snow yet here in billerica. its 12 degree’s here. north wind at 7mph dew point is at freakin -3. wind chills minus 1. 2 of those are not good for me. and i beleive snow amounts will be on the lower end.

    1. I am close by in Woburn. I just want the snow to hold off until I get home a little after 5pm. Then it can have at it.

  158. i believe its a little bit over board of canceled schools in boston , expecially since this storm is so up in the air should have waited till tonight.

    2. BPS parents go on a rampage when not given enough notice. I know first hand.
      Trust me, it’s better this way.

  162. Tom you mentioned southwest CT radar estimates 1-2 inches an hour. It is a stand still on I -95 in southwest CT. Heavier band moving up my way.

    1. I cant imagine 95 in CT. Its busy on a beautiful day. We try to take 84 all the way and cross at Newburgh, I think it is and then 787 ?? or 87 ?? south when we travel south.

  164. Nice bands in CT and along eastern plymouth county in MA, not much in between just yet but it is moving northward

  167. Snow is now coming down at pretty good clip here in Hingham. Steady light snow bordering on moderate. Everything is getting coated.

  168. I am not expert but looking at the radar I know the snow is moving NNE but if you look towards our SW it looks the snow is pivoting. I’m afraid that the snow is moving northward now will then eventually move NE TO ESE. Hammering southeastern Mass leaving areas north of boston out of the action?? I don’t know if u guys get what I am trying to say but I hope it does not happen!

    1. i do and a very big part of why i did not post a new snow map yet i want to wait till early this evening

  169. JJ, I am into that heavier band on the radar now in Manchester, CT. I have to say I am not terribly impressed. While it has picked up in intensity, it’s snowing moderately at best. Nonetheless, all road surfaces are white and no doubt travel conditions are deteriorating.

    1. Mark parts of the shoreline west of New Haven down to Greenwich really getting it now. Roads are covered where I am in Watertown and I am seeing less grass than I did just an hour ago.

  170. Down there you are observing enhanced precipitation due to lift over thevArctic boundary. Likely to fade a bit heading up toward Boston.

  171. 1/2 inch in last 30 minutes, visibility 1/2 mile, stacking up quickly now.

    Set in fast…….. a few fine snow flurries, then a couple big snow flakes, then boom !!

      1. I’ll take it.

        Tortured soul I am …. like watching it fall, discouraged when school gets cancelled tomorrow. Oh well.

  172. Seeing Meriden now coming in now with a heavy snow report about 15 mi south of me.

    TK, how long do you think this enhanced lift remains over us in CT?

  173. I thought it would have started snowing in Boston by now, well that answer has become obvious. Dew point in Boston is up to -2. Getting a bit nervous about my 7-11″ idea for the Boston area, especially the north shore. Probably more along the lines of 5-9″.

  178. Visibility slowly coming down. Snow is picking up.

    Vis down to about …Well wait a minute.

    IF I look in one direction (S) (Nice name for a band. :D) vis is way out there,
    say 4-5 miles, but when I look in the opposite direction (N) it is about 1.5 miles.
    Very strange indeed.

    1. It’s just about here. REALLY coming down now!

      Vis to the South 1/2 mile. To the North 1.5 miles.
      Can actually follow it moving in. AWESOME!!!!

  182. No snow at all except stray flakes (near South Station). Could the Arctic dry air just be too much to overcome? And is the Low positioned too far east? It would appear that way at this time. Recall, this happened back in early February 2010. Major snows (much more significant than today’s storm) to our south (NYC to DC) and nothing here. Could be a major bust for Boston and points north.

  189. It’s snowing, but lightly. I see heavier snow to our south (towards Blue Hill) but nothing exceptional.

    I’m glad it’s finally snowing, but it’s not an impressive display at this time. Perhaps later, I am hoping.

  190. If this band centers itself just south of Boston and sits for several hours ……

    might be one of those south to north drives tomorrow that takes you from 12+ to less than 2 inches in 20 or 25 miles ???

  191. Yea Tom, thick windblown snow! Coming down hard in Walpole, 1/4″ already in about 15 mins of this fluff

  193. S+ !!!! Visibility < 1/4 mile. Airport may report 0 on next ob, because it currently looks like it did during that storm 2 or 3 weeks ago.

    1. that very dark green, bordering on a few yellow echos looks like its about to make it into downtown Boston. Based on what its been like here, you will love that snow band !

  197. I am across the street from the Pru and it is coming more heavily now.

    “Things” are being cancelled left and right.

  198. Hadi,

    I’m still in Roxbury.

    S+ HEAVY SNOW
    VIS 1/4 mile or less.

    As you say, It’s POURING SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Accumulating RAPIDLY!!!

  201. Doppler radar shows it should be snowing heavier in Sudbury – but it is just starting to snow lightly and starting to cover the sidewalks.

  202. I KNOW the event is NOT over, however, early indications are that
    Boston makes it into the heavier zone of precipitation.

    Boston “may” just realize that foot of snow.

    OF course, it’s always possible that it just gets into it briefly and
    ends up missing out in the end?

    Who knows, but for CERTAIN Boston is IN THE GOOD STUFF for now!!!

  205. My ride home started with very light snow in norwood, wet pavement with dusting on everything else. The snow picked up on rte 128 in Randolph and once you took the turn to route 3 south the snow gods were unleashed. I have about 1 1/2″ on the drive way and its snowing moderately now in Hanover. Temp is 14 with a dew of 10, NNE wind.

  207. Boy that band is just north of the city but not by much. Anywhere south of the city looks good to go. Kane still close call north shore.

  209. Snow starting to pick up a bit in Sudbury. Doppler radar showing heavier snow about to hit Framingham – as long as it keeps heading north. Almost seems to want to head more easterly. I have to believe we will be getting some heavy snow around here!

  210. Been snowing heavy the last hr, in that 1 hr I picked up almost an inch an a half of snow, it has recently lightened up to moderate snow, just under 2 inches on the ground

  211. I’ve been trying to get a project done so couldn’t see outside except to know it was lightly snowing. I was surprised when I just looked out front to see everything covered with a solid layer of snow.

  214. Looking at the radar snowing all the way back down to Virginia right now. Several more hours to go with this storm system.
    Snowing moderatley where I am but the winds have not gusted high as of yet but that may change.

  216. HI all!

    I’m in between a double dental appointment. Way back in my braces days in the late 1970s and early 1980s I had a tooth filled with a silver filling and over time it started to crack and fracture and the fracture got to part of the tooth.

    Anyway, I’m half way to having a crown put on it. Just did the first part of the appointment, drilling it out. I can only feel half of my face. I haven’t had novocaine in 25 years… 😉

    I have to go back at 6 for the easy part. Then I’ll be back to check in and update between a few rounds of shoveling and getting feeling back on the right side of my face. 😉

    3. If the crown is temporary, and they say no gum or sticky food, be good about that. I was not, and the temporary crown came right off. And I had not had a root canal, so it hurt like the dickens.

      1. Not sure if this is permanent or temporary. I was going to get a porcelain overlay eventually. I only have 2 teeth left to get rid of old silver. The porcelain is awesome. Looks like your natural tooth and lasts forever.

  217. Son left Boston at 3:00 for providence. Still on the road. If you look at traffic maps, the roads around providence are all backed up

  219. JJ, it has been snowing here in Manchester since before 1PM and we just reached the 1″ mark.

    I think it is going to be tough to achieve 6″ NW of I-84 in CT, north of the Pike in Worcester County, and outside 128 north of Boston. Sharp cutoff setting up which is not totally a surprise.

    1. Mark I am just on the edge of the heavier bands of snow. Areas south and east of 84 looking to get the most out of the snow
      The snow has been coming down moderately here since just after 3pm.

  221. One of the main things about the snow is going to be the sharp drop off as you go NW. Starting to see evidence of dry air at mid levels that is going to be working hard against the snow on the NW side.

    I still like my earlier amounts and going to stick with them. The heaviest band may be sooner (like now and for the next few hours) rather than later. More than half the snow will have fallen before midnight, IMO.

    I’ll be very surprised if Boston exceeds 8 inches from this.

    1. You and I really need to stop this was just talking about the mid and low level drying going on to the west and south west. I am quite comfortable with the forecasted amounts in eastern NE. Where I think I am about to bust bad is western ma, CT River Valley

  222. A lot to nothing in a very short distance. We have about an inch in Hartford, while Greenwich and Fairfield in southern CT have just eclipsed 6″. Think you are going to see a similar situation right across Metro Boston.

  223. No stations in southern New England are reporting heavy snow. If you go by visibility, most “heavy” areas are actually moderate.

    1. KBOS has only been reporting -SN so far. Radar suggests at least SN. Must be quite a bit of evaporation going on at the low levels. Boston’s dew point has risen to 7 degrees, so the snow should pick up at the surface shortly.

      1. There is a whole lot. And the dry air is already starting to eat at the back edge.

        This thing may under-achieve with a few exceptions.

    2. I hope so Hadi, Very close call for northshore, it seems like the heaviest snow band is is moving as far north as Somerville-Malden and that’s it.

      1. oops wrong reply but JJ the discussion says that the bands will start shifting from SW to NE to SSW-NNE, hopefully that means when the storm pivits the heavier bands shift little north before going east!

  226. and this storm stinks!! i hope the next 4 storms is all rain for you down in southeast mass and the cape. with the storm traveling just on or just inside the benchmark. this is what i call bs 😀

      1. Matt, Vicki’s point is well taken. I understand your feelings about this particular storm. But, on the whole, you guys get more snow than we coastal residents. I can remember so many nor’easters (especially in February and March) in which from Framingham to Worcester it’s snowing cats and dogs, and Boston’s soaking in a cold (35F) rain (the absolute worst!).

        1. in the “good size nor easters rain usually comes into play and it tries to sneak its ugly head into my town. limiting amounts, giving areas just outside of 495 the good accumulations. then there are the storms like this that give good snow around boston points south. merrimack valley is not given the nick name snowstorm eater for nothing… We need just the right set up for us here between 128 and 495 to be the jack pot 😀 and im still waiting 😉

          1. Matt I agree with Joshua but it isn’t easy to hear the several inches reports when we are barely covered. Im trying to be brave 😉

  228. Not impressed thus far. It’s snowing, but at a moderate rate at best (half inch per hour, perhaps). In the end, Boston could indeed get less than 6″. Nice to look at, but this should not present a problem tomorrow, even though flights have been cancelled and schools, too. Of course, I realize that points south are bearing the brunt of this storm. Even there, however, I’m not seeing heavy snow of the kind that was advertised (1-2 inches per hour). Is anyone experiencing that kind of snow right now?

    1. hey you can use your hair blower and bring it up here 🙂 i got nothin light very light snow right now.

  230. Boston gets over 6 without a fight. Westwood has 3.5 already and the snow was forecasted to begin right around now if im not mistaken. Half the snow has already fallen in my area as of this 6:20 write up. A long way to go folks.

  233. Heaviest snow band seems to have set up shop just south of boston into Norfolk county and southward from providence through Bristol and Plymouth counties and hasn’t really moved since it started. So far, Cape and the Islands haven’t gotten into the heavy snow yet. I would be happy if this continued all night 😀

  235. This snow is very fluffy and the flakes are big causing this to add up quick. The new years storm was a fluffy snow too but for some reason the flakes were very fine and compressed easier.

  236. 4.5 inches ….. The last 2 obs at the Marshfield airport have been moderate snow with 0 and 0.25 miles visibility.

  237. Whoever is saying its not snowing in boston is crazy. Long wood medical area has been snowing good for awhile. More to come but not more than 10.

    1. Its wild down here John.

      Pembroke, Marshfield, Hanover, etc are just sitting under the heaviest band of snow. Since 3:30pm. Seeing Coastal’s report a bit again, it seems there’s 4-6 inches in our area already !

  238. I made it home in 20 minutes, no different than a regular night.

    TK, I can honestly say that it was indeed HEAVY snow where I was in Roxbury.
    By the time I arrived home, it was down to moderate. Here in JP it has gone back and forth between true Heavy and just moderate. Right now, moderate. Big flakes, none of these Stinken little ones. 😀

    I like that meso scale discussion above.

    SWEET!!

  240. I was considering going down to the waterfront to visit Eric but figured I should probably stay off the road. It is quite tempting though!

  243. Beautifully moderate in the south end for a few hours now. This is my favorite kind of snow. Not too much, not too heavy, just perfect.

    1. Agree totally.

      I can’t see how Boston ONLY gets 8 inches. I just can’t see it, unless
      this band suddenly moves to the SE.

  247. Just got home after running a couple of errands with almost 4 inches of the fluffiest snow I’ve seen in quite a while.

  249. Daughter in Hopkinton says is snowing really hard.

    What I am noticing is the Large flakes. Lots of air between flakes, so MORE
    of a fluff factor. I think the ratios will be HUGE. Just my opinion. 😀

  251. Perhaps, based on nowcasting, the snowfall projections need some tweaking ???

    A 12-16 inch zone, a stretched out narrow circle from NE CT, east-northeastward into the middle south shore (Hingham to Duxbury).

    There seems to be a little zone in btwn this area and the Cape that hasnt shared in all of this heavy snow, but probably will play catch up later, 8-12 inches.

    Cape, 12-16 inches, because of receiving most QPF overnight and ocean effect snow lingering into tomorrow.

    Boston to southern Worcester Co : 5-8 inches.

    Then, literally every 2 miles n and w, deduct an inch, to the point where 15-20 miles n and w of Boston are going to struggle to get 2 inches, maybe 3 and north and west of 495 up in the Merrimack Valley, very little to nothing.

    1. Tom, respectively,

      NO WAY Boston only gets 5-8 inches. 😀 😀 😀

      We’re at 3 inches as of 7:30 PM after 3 hours of decent snow.
      Hey, that’s 1 inch per hour. Isn’t that funny. 😀

      1. True…… but, Boston and surrounding areas are awfully close to the edge of going from 1 inch per hour snow to very, very light snow. Even 4 more hrs of remaining in that band would bring the total to 7 inches. 🙂

  253. Its all about the track. With the storm center tracking south east of the benchmark bigger totals are going to be in southeastern parts of SNE closer to that storm center.

    4. Ok…based on Coastal’s report I thought…maybe my 4 inch total is a little low…went out back on the deck and a couple of other places and it averages out to about 6.5 inches!!! Also noticed where I brushed away snow 30 minutes ago another inch has fallen…wow!!

      Wind is starting to pick up ever so slightly here.

    5. Actually the wind is light here and the snow has been falling straight. The ultimate fluff factor!

      Vick, I’m in Hanover

  255. Folks, KBOS still reporting -SN with 3/4-1SM. Only .07″ of QP so far. With ratios, probably translates to around 2″ of snow.
    Wind still due north, was actually NNW for a time earlier. Hasn’t been any northward progression of that band. Sticking with 5-9″ for the Boston area. Substantially drops off N and W.

    2. Scott, I’m telling you the observer at LOGAN is snorting something.

      No way, no F’n way it is light snow in Boston.

      And NO I am not exaggerating. Been doing this for well past 1/2 century.
      I KNOW what is light. moderate and heavy. BELIEVE ME!!!

      _!@*#(*!()@*#()!*@()#*)!(@#*(!*)@#()*!(@)*#(!*@()#*!(#*)@
      To the Logan Observer. May he go back to his bottle!

      1. OS …. as relates to Logan, where are you. Do you have any distance, even a mile or so, where you are south of Logan, because, with that cutoff line on the radar, it could make all the difference in the world in this particular case.

        1. See Hadi’s post.
          Logan received 2.1 inches in past 2 hours.

          And to answer your question, I am about 5 miles Due SW of Logan and Hadi is about 6 miles SW of Logan, give or take 1,000 feet or so. 😀 😀

          1. Ok, then with that ……

            and in this one particular case, I could see Logan having 6 and you both having 9 or 10. Again, based on where the cutoff is setting up this evening, that bit of southerly component is probably going to make a huge difference.

  256. Hello from Wrentham, 5.2 inches of snow, I’ve got a drift of 9 inches, it continues to snow moderately.

  257. Cape Cod winds, along with the Boston harbor buoy are 030. Marshfield is 020. JUST inland from the coast, its mostly 360 for wind direction.

    So, I think there’s that little added bit of convergence helping out Boston points south and east.

  258. No schools that I can see in this area or really anywhere other than. SS have cancelled for tomorrow. Last I looked scituate had not cancelled. That may have changed.

  259. If it were not for that narrow heavier band people would already be calling this storm a “dud”. 😉

    Coastal, you may be Mr. Jackpot this time.

    1. And it’s not going to.

      Because of media hype, a whole lot of people are going to be angry.

      1. Doesn’t look that way TK. Pretty light stuff out here in Worcester area. Can’t win ’em all in the hills!

  261. Medfield has NO school Tomorrow. They hardly ever close.
    My Daughter got her call a little while ago. 😀

  262. No way it’s light snow. No idea what Logan is reporting. In that they just posted 2.1 at 7 pm and it only started there in earnest at 5. Hmmm that’s an inch an hour.

  264. Tk. Some people like to Forecast Like DT( Even though I think he’s a horses …) and others like to now cast. Now casting is a little easier then forecasting. Doesn’t mean they are hyping. You have to get over this hype thing.

    1. The hype I am referring to is the general media referring to the storm as a blizzard. There is a blizzard warning for parts of southeastern MA coast because of possible blizzard conditions for a while tonight.

      I also heard one reporter say “we’re expecting widespread power outages”. Really? Where? And why? That is my problem with the media and it certainly exists and is worse now than it’s ever been.

      As for forecasting styles, to each his or her own. No big deal to me. 🙂

  265. Ratios are huge here, higher than the new years storm IMO. Just went out to measure, I couldn’t believe it, the lightest fluffiest 7″ ive ever seen in Sharon! I wonder if areas around me have the same. Charlie, any reports from Foxboro? Aiden, what do u have in Mansfield?

    1. Mega interesting.

      JP is in the 10-14 zone, while Logan is in the 6-8 inch zone, 5-6 miles apart.
      INCREDIBLE!!!!

    1. Thanks Aidan. I was shocked about how much I measured. I took 10 spots between the front yard and back yard and took the average, but truthfully, there wasn’t much variation. Little to no drifting. Solid 7.” Doesn’t surprise me though, its been a very persistent moderate to heavy snow since 4pm.

  272. This storm is a bust for north-shore, not that anyone was calling a huge impact here anyway. I have classes tommorow at UMass Lowell and i really hope they cancel! Not ready to back to school. Now that band along the mass pike, why can’t it just move little up and make my night more interesting!? everytime it comes to my town it just collapses south!! This band is teasing me!!

      1. TK do you think eventually the snow will overcome the dry air and some heavier snow bands come around the woburn-reading area and get more action? or is the intensity of snow we have now is all the action we are going to get all night??

        2. I think it’s maxing out now in this area, to be honest. Watch the radar and you’ll see a shift slightly to the southeast of the heavier band and the edge of the meaningful snow.

  276. My friend is the chairman of the board of the selectmen here in Plymouth and was just interviewed on The Weather Channel. Of course I missed him because I never watch that channel.

    1. well …….. now, there may be an argument to be made and understood in towns just north of that sharp cutoff where tomorrow morning, there’ll be like 2-3 inches total and no school. I feel for those towns along that line in this particular setup.

      1. That’s why I’m surprised they didn’t wait until morning. That is what they typically do. Of course we had two grandparents and two parents cheering excitedly along with the 6 yr old 🙂

    2. I bet they’re regretting that 😉

      I remember one year when I was in elementary school, I heard on the radio my town was cancelled. So my mom made plans to stay home from work. Next update 20 mins later they changed their mind and it was a 2 hr delay. They can change their minds but I bet it would casue a lot of issues.

  278. Over the next few hours the heavy band will ever so slowly move south and east, snowing moderatley to heavy 5.9 inches here

    1. I wonder what their season to date total is.

      I seem to remember a couple big snowfalls back in December.

      I’m guessing they are nearing 40 inches.

  284. As I mentioned above, the media has discovered the word bombogenesis so I am now waiting for the first media type to put together a story on this winter’s weather where the words nor’easter, polar vortex and bombogenesis appear either in the same sentence or paragraph. My forecast is that this will happen by the month end.

  285. I also believe that the heaviest snow banding will be going over to extreme southeastern mass and the cape after midnight, I think the storms a little a head of schedule by about 2-3 hrs IMO, the snow stops before 6am IMO while snowing Plymouth southward till late morning

    1. storm is definitely ahead of schedule. Snow shuts off by 8 a.m. in most locales except 10 a.m. for the cape.

  287. approaching 6 inches in Westwood. Another 6 inches to go seems likely. Storm living up to its expectations Boston-South and it’s only 9 p.m. We are actually way ahead of schedule. Note that I have forecasted 12+ plus Boston south for the past 48 hours. Boston may come just shy of that. I did not throw out numbers north and west of the city due to the likelihood of a sharp cut off in precip amounts. All systems still a go and working out perfectly thus far except Boston may not achieve a foot.

    1. Respectfully disagree. I love to hear your read on these storms, but how on earth can downtown Boston even get to 6″? Perhaps, but it’ll be a stretch with it snowing as lightly as it is now. I was just outside, and there’s barely 3 inches on the ground, if that. Please note, I’m not talking about JP, Hyde Park, where totals by morning will likely be close to 8″-10″. My guess is that from Weymouth south, they’ll also see some good numbers approaching 12″. And the Cape could get up to 15″. We’ll see.

      1. Joshua, Boston is actually ahead of schedule. 3 inches and it’s barely 9 p.m. However, admittedly, what has me concerned is the southeastward jog of the heaviest band of snow that has been pounding I-95. Yet, even if this band is to collapse to the south shore and cape, a good 8-10 hours of additional light to moderate snow is likely in Boston. Thus, an additional 4-5 inches for Boston would still easily be achieved on top of the 3 the city has already seen. We shall see. That’s what makes this fun. Just to the south of the city, look for lots of double digit snow totals 😀 😀 😀

        1. Agree with you on south of the city. Hingham, which isn’t far, may wind up having more than twice the amount that Boston gets.

  288. Just went out and measured in 3 places again…the average is now 8.5 inches!! 2 inches in the last 70 minutes.

  289. Not even a coating in Pelham, NH; it has stopped snowing. An hour ago we had a winter storm warning and probably in another hour we will be seeing the moon.

    1. For once I may have been right about a forecast. I never thought it would snow much at all above the MA border. Don’t worry, payback time is coming. Mother nature always evens out. We’ll get a classic nor’easter and you’ll be in the jackpot area.

  290. TK, you’re right about the unnecessary hype.

    In Boston (near Boston Common) it’s snowing gently and mostly lightly. Feels very cold outside, but not at all like a nor’easter or a mid-winter snowstorm. It’s hard to describe. I can’t imagine getting to 6″. Just not going to happen. I understand it’s a different story in other parts of the state. But still others will get almost nothing from this storm. Saturday’s brief surprise event felt more ferocious and New England-like, despite its brevity.

      1. It is gorgeous. My daughter and I walked down quiet Beacon Street and marveled at the beauty of this snowfall. Like a postcard.

    2. It’s intense down here but not ferocious by any stretch of the imagination. What this reminds me of are some of the snowfalls I remember back in the 70s when my friends and I used to rent chalets for the winter in North Conway.

      1. Whoa. Wait. Did we know each other in a different life. I remember those chalets in North Conway. I remember those storms. We stayed at hotels – mostly eastern slope – when younger then moved to chalets when my brother and I got older so friends could join us

        1. I probably got drunk with you a couple of times…boy the tales I could tell. We usually rented in the Eidelweiss complex just south in Madison. I remember many a night at either the Red Jacket, The Up Country Saloon, Tavern in the Town or the Red Parka…good times :). Didn’t do much skiing and if I did it was usually cross country up at the Jackson Ski Touring Center.

          1. Oh my. Memories. We stayed at red jacket a lot and it was the edelweiss complex where we rented. They had the largest boulder as I recall? Id bet we may have celebrated together at some point and yes the tales. I believe aces dad frequented the area as well

              1. I remember that Boulder!!

                Most of the time we rented about halfway up the hill (in Eidelweiss) but one year we rented the chalet at the top (which was used in the past as place to bring potential buyers of places in the complex). If it snowed while you were up there you could be stuck for days 🙂

  291. That is two major misses in 3 days. Saturday they called for 1 inch and we got 7, and today they called for about 7 and we got less than 1. So I guess we are even….

    2. There you go! Saturday’s storm came out of the blue. Those are the kinds of snow-falls I remember when winter is over and done with. Even in Boston we had an intense few hours of wet snow. I mean really heavy stuff.

  292. looking at the Wundermap right now shows the heaviest bands over Hingham, Weymouth, Hull and Cohasset with another heavy band over or just to the west of the Route 1 area Franklin, Walpole and Norfolk

    2. Can you see the moon? You know, even in Boston where it’s snowing it feels like the end of a storm rather than the beginning or middle. It may continue to snow lightly all night, but the air feels like it’s drying out if you will, like with those last gasp bands of snow at the end of a nor’easter when the winds start shifting to northwest.

  294. Snow diminishing in intensity northwest of Boston. Watch the radar loop since 8PM and you’ll see the dry air starting to eat away a little more at the synoptic snow band as well. May have to cut back final #’s a bit more, except for those areas that HAVE ALREADY BEEN UNDER THE BAND for several hours (capitalized so nobody misinterprets what I’m saying).

  295. 8-10 in Boston to 128, 6-8 128 to 495, 495 westward 2-4, Quincy southward to the cape 12-15 inches, from Boston southward to Providence and along the I95 corridor 7-9.

    This was my forecast, seems so far to be verifying nicely to this point, we shall see 🙂

    3. Its gonna have to snow a lot to make 6-8 128-495. But for the sake of the power that be who cancelled school here I hope that verifies

  296. Woburn schools canceled…not sure its the right call given lower numbers and it ending earlier potentially.

    1. It’s not the right call, at least not now.

      Whatever happened to waiting until 6AM to make the decision? Everybody has to know NOW NOW NOW. Conditions change. You cannot always call it the night before, but we’ve been spoiled into thinking it’s the norm.

  297. Interesting the WSW for JP has us in the 10-14 inch range. We shall see.

    Coming down moderately here up to 5.4

    1. The southeastward collapse of the heaviest axis of snow has me a bit concerned for places like JP and the city of Boston. Snow totals there may not reach its full potential.

  299. as TK mentioned, the snow will is collapsing east south east. I expect the snow to end in the northshore at 11 12 am max. I don’t see how we are going to get snow untill 8 am like some of the media is showing

          1. Of course, But NAM was initialized at 7PM.
            Have to take what fell to 7PM and add the totals
            from MAP.

  301. Pretty intense now. Just let dog out and it’s moderate to heavy for sure. Easily an inch hour right now.

    1. Must keep an eye on the SE collapse of moderate band that sits over us. It has jogged from Worcester to I-95 in just a couple hours.

    1. Yes, the track of the low essentially flat-lined. Not quite, but still. That’s why calling this a nor’easter is wrong in my humble opinion. Wind may at some point be coming from a northeasterly direction, but my guess is NE wind is not the predominant wind during this event, and the low does not march up the coast, instead meandering away from the coast. If the low marched up the coast we’d be talking big time snows indeed.

      1. Very true. And channel 7 “hyped” up the wind. They were calling for 30 mph wind gusts in Worcester, 40 mph gusts in Boston and up to 50 mph gusts over the Cape. What a joke as winds are calm everywhere. I never thought wind would play much of a factor and thus did not feel Blizzard Warnings were appropriate.

        1. They should have been more specific to their viewers about when this would take place.

          We have to wait for the low to crank up and pass east of this area. The strongest winds will be toward dawn into the morning. The worst part of this storm may be after sunrise for Cape Cod.

          1. Ain’t going to happen. The NAM suggests that southern NH gets in on the action. But, our NH friends are telling us that there are fair skies up there, and practically no snow. It’s not all of a sudden going to change between now and midnight or morning.

  305. The Med Center opted for a delayed opening tomorrow…The right call based on the forecast from earlier but now unless something happens this could be over for the South Shore by 4 or 5 this morning. Should be very easy to move.

  307. No way Logan gets 12 and probably not even here in JP. Clearly I missed in Boston but got it right south of the city. Oh well still beautiful.

    1. Not so fast Hadi. We not end up that far off for the city of Boston after all. Refer to very latest radar trend. Let’s see how this plays out. Still a long way to go!

    2. These are rivers of air – fluids. They are going to waver around. The general trend has been SE, but you’ll see ripples northward from time to time as well.

  309. The moderate snow band has stopped its southeastward collapse for the past 30 minutes and for at least the time being 😀

  311. Hey JMA! How about that dry air? 😉

    Hardly snowing in Woburn now, just over 1 inch so far…

      1. The only way it’s going to happen now is if that band south of us comes back and pivots over the region, or if a new one develops and does something to eastern MA in the overnight/early morning.

        In my humble professional opinion, I think the NAM is a piece of crap right now (and yes that means within 12 hours as well). As are some of these supposedly infallible short-range models.

        The best forecasts when the event is underway is going to be made by knowing conditions in the various places and using your best knowledge of how things tend to interact. This is how I arrived at the dry air eating the NW edge of the storm and cutting back amounts there scenario. You couldn’t not deny that air was there and pressing steadily eastward.

        I am about 5 miles east of the radio towers near the Burlington Mall and I can see them right now. That’s how light the snow is here. 🙂

        1. TK we have just light snow here as well. VERY light. I finally got up to measure. Average is a solid……wait for it

          2 inches even

    1. That would be the first wave (now) followed by a lull and then a second wave from the parent low that clips eastern mass after the rush hour tomorrow morning that OS was referring to.

  315. South Shore bands are getting more intense again and expanding a little according to the Wundermap.

    Also I just measured again and the average is 10.2 inches!!!

    2. hmmm just checking the loop and something doesn’t seem right..so I’m holding off on the intensity and expanding comment for a bit.

        1. if you go that link then you have to check off radar in the settings section on the right hand side of the page. I just looked at the NWS radar and it actually seemed to bloom a little there too…

    1. I would say so from the other radar links I just looked at…the Wundermap link is acting funky.

    2. I should have added, you could be right, at least about some places, as the area of precipitation is large indeed and could come north. The problem is it’s bumping into a dry air shield.

  319. Heading to bed. Just measured 9.5″ and still snowing just as hard as it was when it started at 4pm

  320. Sorry arod but won’t even come close to 12. I’m in the middle of it now and there has been no heavy burst really all light. If I were to guess maybe 4 inches on ground now tops. Jackpot down my area heading towards cape.

    1. Likely agree Josh. Good call! Storm may be VERY short lived in terms of moderate snowfall. TK and JMA’s forecast of dry air seems to be verifying as we speak. It this continues, much of the storm could be over in just a few short hours and many of us except for south shore and the cape could be looking at an additional few inches max. Westwood has received 7 inches thus far. I would still be looking at a solid 10 inches and even more to the south of that. It just may not verify for Boston north and west. However, echoes to the south and west of Boston seem to be holding their own so not ready to throw in the towel just yet 😀

    1. It will probably snow most of the night there, but it’s going to alternate between light and very light starting around 11PM. We’ll watch for one more moderate burst in the early morning, depending on the main low, but this MAY stay over the Cape, far SE MA, and largely offshore.

  322. Downgraded western Ma to a dusting to 1″

    Best band set up 30 mi north of where I thought 12 hours ago. Not much I can do about that. Just hard to know where there those 30 mile wide bands are going to set up…

    Dry Cold Air won out for a large geographic portion of SNE. Should have known better with a storm whose general orientation was always west to east and cold dry air advecting down on strong northerly wind component. It was going to eat alive a system that lacked a copious moisture supply.

      1. Yes an no. Was never confident of a wide spread 12″ but there is an area that is going to be in that 12″ range and it is generally an area where I was 7-10″ so not so good, but bigger error is going to be in the 4-7″ areas who are going to be dusting-2″

        1. It was a very difficult forecast. A battle between the dry, arctic air and a developing low pressure to our south.

  324. The funky radar behavior was them switching modes to a more sensitive mode so they can see the snow better.

    1. Taunton has gone to clear air mode. So those bright bands are no where near as intense as radar would indicate.

      1. Makes sense..still coming down pretty good here but nothing like even an hour ago. Visibility up to a half mile or so.

  325. TK. Boston has already received 4 inches of snow. How much additional snow accumulation do you see for Boston and its southwest suburbs?

  326. Just got no,e at 930 to North Attleboro from leaving Quincy at 810. Roads not horrible got behind one plow group on 128 and then another on the lower end of 95. Visibility was bad most of the way at 1/4 mile. Glad to be home safe. You would be surprised how many people were passing me going 50 or more. I stayed in low gear and to the right :). This heavy band has been something.

  327. Strong echoes to the southwest of Boston could dump a quick 1-2 inches over Boston should this hold together.

  328. Interesting to note how snow and rain can affect radio, TV and other forms of RF. On the AM and Shortwavebands it has almost no impact at all. When you get up into FM signals start to see a degradation…not so much in local signals but semi local and lower power stations out around 40-80 miles will disappear when when precip starts falling at a good rate. On UHF and above even weaker local signals can be affected. Wifi links from one building to another can also suffer.

    1. Let’s hope so. Not liking the radar trends. Let’s keep our eye on those stronger echoes moving in from the southwest.

  331. I’m at 12″ right now. That’s roughly 2″ and hour since 4pm. No one predicted that. Wind is starting to kick up a bit now. I’m hitting the hey. Waking up at 4 to clean up and head to work. Enjoy!

  332. Looks like I will be opening up the urgent care facility on time in the morning. Night everyone! 😀 😀 😀

  334. Night all. Hoping for something …anything ….while I doze. Otherwise lots of towns will be sorry they didn’t wait till morning.

  336. Snow has tapered to flurries in northern CT. 5.5″ at my house in Coventry. The town south of me, Columbia, has reported 10″ and two towns NW of me in South Windsor, they have received only 2″. Forecast verified nicely here….as long as you were south of I84!

  344. I told the kids to be ready for school tomorrow at bedtime tonight (8PM) – almost got egged on principal. Pretty sharp gradient w/this storm, on the wrong side for snow lovers.

  347. Snow has really lightened here almost stopping, I’m thinking 8.5 is about gonna do it, maybe another inch overnight, timing was terrible I thought, suns gonna be out at 8am

    1. Looks like you may be in between a couple of moderate bands right now Charlie…one just to your east and the other just to your west…kind of like an inverted V. The question is does it fill back or will you stay in the Charlie Zone 🙂

  348. Snow has gotten much lighter since an hour ago..still coming down but visibility is close to a mile maybe a little less. The thing now is the wind has picked up some and is probably blowing about 15-20mph so there is a little bit of drifting. Best guess is that we picked up another half inch since 9:35. Maybe a little under 11 inches right now.

  349. It has clearly been a case of where it’s snowing, it keeps snowing, at least in terms of the heaviest bands.

    Am a little worried about a giant chunk of dry air that just erased the snow from the radar in parts of NJ and NYC. Like some Pac Man got involved with the system…

    1. Although it does look like NJ is filling in a little now (just a little)

      http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=dix&loop=yes

      The Dover AFB and Wakefield VA radars look a little more robust too..in fact it looks like the precip on the Wakefield radar is turning a little more NNE.

      Well if we get anything more it will still be real easy to move. I’ll be up for a bit and then will probably get up around 7:30…shovel out here and maybe my mother in laws and then get to work by 10.

  352. Looks like we could still see 2-4 inches more down here by 8 am tomorrow. Also looks like shoveling while easy from a snow weight standpoint could be nasty as conditions (wind and temp wise) will be bad with gusts between 25 and 35 and wind chills around zero or lower…ouch!!

  354. KBOS has picked up a whopping .11″ of QP so far and has not gone above -SN. Not too upset I missed this one. Models can be quite useless following an arctic outbreak. I think the important thing was we got the idea that it was going to snow out to the public in a reasonable time and there would be considerable impact. The next part of course is the forecast accuracy, which will always have it’s complications.

  358. I think a lot of schools will be upset for cancelling, storm is 4-5 hrs ahead of what I thought, when we wake up, the suns gonna be out, and the roads will be clear, I know we would rather be safe than sorry, but alot of schools closed and are gonna wake up to 2 inches lol 🙂

  361. If you have, you get more.
    If you have not, it’s pretty much done.
    Just a little wavering along the edge of the line.
    That’s the way this one decided to set up.
    Never thought I’d have to lower the #’s so much to the NW, but this is not the first time we’ve seen this happen, nor will it be the last.

    Blog updated!

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