Sunday Update

90 Comments

10:04AM

The big storm is moving away. Big, in terms of its strength, and its impact over parts of southeastern MA. This system was never destined to have a major impact north of Boston and especially inland, though it did provide some decent wind gusts and blowing snow overnight and early this morning.

Today, a baby-brother disturbance will sneak south of New England, nearly unnoticed save for some high and middle cloudiness moving across the southern New England sky. If nothing else, this system will help yank a little more cold air down out of eastern Canada to keep us cold and dry through Monday.

I know that some media has advertised a big warm up next week. I must disagree. Will it be milder? Yes, certainly, as we’ll rid ourselves of the trough in the jet stream and develop a more west to east flow with a bit of a ridge in the southeastern USA putting the source of milder air closer. But along this jet stream flow will ride several disturbances. That means lots of clouds, periods of precipitation, and a bit of an air mass battle as we move through the coming week. Timing of these disturbances is always a little ticklish, but an educated guess results in this expected scenario:

*Small but potent disturbance brings a generally light snowfall to the region  Tuesday (watch for a sneaky pocket of moderate snowfall if the disturbance lives up to full potential).

*Follow up disturbance brings some rain/snow showers Wednesday with a push of milder air trying to sneak in ahead of it.

*A weak disturbance and frontal system late Thursday or early Friday not likely to be a major precipitation producer.

*Potentially stormy weekend – but too early to call as far as precipitation type and size/strength of any storm. Just that odds favor the foul over the fair at this early stage.

…………………………………..

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny southern NH and northern MA, partly sunny southern MA and RI. Highs around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 elsewhere except 15-20 coast. Wind light W.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows 12-20. Highs 26-34.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers PM. Lows 18-26. Highs 32-40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 37-45.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers early. Lows 30-38. Highs 40-48.

NEXT WEEKEND: Unsettled weather – rain/ice/snow potential.

90 thoughts on “Sunday Update”

  1. Thank you TK.

    We’re certainly for Tuesday.
    06NAM looked somewhat robust with 5-6 inches of snow for Boston area, but
    12Z NAM went poof. Go figure.

    Waiting on GFS.

    Euro wants to give us 2 or 3 inches is all.

    I liked your term “Sneaky Moderate” could be a CLASSIC if it materializes! 😀

  2. Thanks, TK. I’ve never been first to post.

    This week’s warm-up is a knock down blow to winter. But not a knock out. A quick hook that staggers and floors winter briefly. But, he gets right back up and immediately lands a left jab on spring’s unsuspecting chin. The back-and-forth battle between winter and spring in New England is about to begin.

  3. BTW,

    What’s the first thing we do after a New England snowfall?
    Well we clean off the car! Job Complete.

    While out there, I took a measurement.

    5.25 inches here in JP.

    1. That may be a bit of a stretch. Looks milder than now but rather unsettled. Maybe more typical of very early Spring, which is often just the same as very late Winter. 🙂

  7. 12Z GFS doesn’t want to do much with Tuesday’s system either.

    Perhaps later runs will change? Who knows. Not counting on it.

    Looking at GFS for the 24th or so.

    1. From Mass Audubon:

      This medium-sized owl is also a denizen of the north, but food scarcity sometimes drives them south into Massachusetts in what are called “irruptions.” Bird irruptions are irregular migrations to another area, usually in search of food.

      Northern Hawk Owl Call 28.18 kB

    1. The Weather Channel
      Not again! Yet another snowmaker is on its way soon – and while not as strong as the last few, it may be strong enough to be named Winter Storm Rex later today. More updates on The Weather Channel and from our winter weather experts at this link: http://wxch.nl/1gHGujR

  12. Hoping Tuesday fizzles…I know we have a ways to go but a storm free week would be a blessing…as unlikely as it is.

  13. Climatology wise we should be getting milder, and the models r showing this, I believe we have a meaningful snow event Tuesday with 1-3 inches, that really doesn’t cause hazards due to it happening in late Feb and it falling during daytime. most accumulations will be on cartops or the snow that’s on the ground IMO. We have a 10K we sponsor in Hyannis this upcoming weekend and at these early stages it looks like it could be in the mid 40’s and sunshine :).

    AM do we have that friendly bet for no snow? You gotta at least give me to next Sunday? Lol let me know 🙂
    Good day everyone!!

  14. I do understand people who wish for spring. Not everyone likes winter. In fact, I know I am in a tiny minority. However, this week is NOT a week that anyone really wishes for, unless you like it cloudy and in the 40s with off and on showers. Today and tomorrow are beautiful and sunny. But, the rest of the week will be milder, raw, very gray, and rather dismal. Not spring-like in a good sense of the word. Sunny days in the 50s and 60s are still pretty far away.

    Healthiest consistent snowpack in Boston’s public garden since 2011. You may recall that last year’s two big storms were followed almost immediately by warm-ups that did a disappearing act on the snow. The snowpack from the storms lasted a day or two, really, and was not nearly as consistent as this year. 2011 was a treat in that we had a 6-week snow pack of around 18 inches or so, perhaps even 24 in the public garden.

    1. I do agree Joshua that it is a little early, but at this point for me it is all about melting the snow. Showers and fog and 40’s for consecutive days will do this, I’m not wishing this to be against the snow lovers I wanna make that clear, but business wise March 3rd is our start date from Providence to Plymouth southward, March 10th we will be doing clients in the Attleboro to hingham area south, so on and so forth. Of course i have a little leway, but this time of year is always stressful starting up. have a great day josh!! 🙂

    2. I actually like it cold…had no issue with the polar vortex. Even the snow is OK if we have an occasional storm. Not liking the back-to-back-to-back setup.

    1. Left is Thursday’s. Right is Saturday’s.

      1. System on right , Saturday’s, Shows more convection and deeps clouds
      more to East and NE of system. System on Left, Thursday’s has deep convection due
      North of center and even somewhat NW of center. Dead giveaway.
      2. Left shows a closer pass to the coast.
      Right, clearly more OTS
      3. It was COLDER after Saturday’s system, so More Ocean cloudiness in it’s wake for
      system on Right.

      😀

      2. Trying not to read old saltys response, I would guess right is Saturdays. Vicki’s “technical” explanation is it looks tighter and more capable of the hurricane force winds and also more compact and not strung down coast.

        And I see owl feathers around 7:00-8:00 in image to left which explains Old Saltys visitor last night which I find incredibly interesting.

          1. Hahahaha. Now I’d like to learn. I get the reasoning for the added cloudiness but the left looks cloudier to me. What am I missing ?

            1. Vicki,

              I was talking about the clouds over the ocean South of New England. This would normally be clear air, but due to the cold over the water, clouds pop up. The clouds are more extensive with Saturday’s system than with Thursday’s because it was colder. 😀 😀

    2. BTW,

      Thanks TK. As much as I love Longshot’s quizes, this one is/was the best
      of them all. Thanks again. I only hoped I passed. 😀 😀

      1. Not only did you pass with 100%. You got bonus credit for #3. I wasn’t sure anybody would pick up on that right away.

        2. Heaven knows I wouldn’t have. I have to go look to see what you both mean. I love quizzes. Do I get a bonus for thinking thurs storm might have in fact spawned an owl 😉

    4. You can also see the dry slot that the system on the left clearly demonstrates from Thursday’s storm.

  16. Is it safe to say that yesterday’s system will hit Ireland and the British Isles by tomorrow, with more lashing gales and rain? My guess is these systems are being `steered’ if you will in part by the Gulf-stream. Correct? And so they wind up moving in a north-easterly direction towards Scotland, and wind up over Scotland headed towards Norway. Hence, most of Britain is in the `warm’ sector, as well as most of Northwestern Europe.

    1. The system will redevelop yet again and timing looks like Wednesday/Thursday for NW Europe.

      With a lack of blocking, these systems have clear access to the Trans-Atlantic Expressway to the UK.

      1. Thanks. I thought it would be quicker than that. I thought they traversed the Atlantic (2600 miles to west coast of Ireland) in 48 hours. But, I guess I’m wrong about that.

        1. They can go that fast, but this one is gonna neg-tilt a couple times and redevelop. Sorta like pulling off the highway for gas. 😉

  17. TK how did the snow removal go? Wasn’t too bad on my end…glad the sun is out. Driveway is black again. Guessing where I roof raked is melted too.

    1. It went decently well. I stayed ahead of this one and since I wasn’t expecting a dumping here it set up for a nice easy finish. I got home around 2:30AM from a night out, and did the final driveway cleanup among blowing and drifting snow under a bright full moon. It was actually quite nice, though a bit stinging. 😀

    1. We’ll get some 40s, but it also looks like a storm parade is going to continue for the rest of February.

    1. Don’t be surprised if this one has an eastward jog on follow-up run’s. I think we do get a system in here next Sunday night, a rain to snow situation that may be more robust than either system we just had.

  20. TK, thanks for the explanation of the speed at which Low’s traverse the Atlantic, and what Low’s sometimes do on their way over the pond. Love the metaphor of gas stations in the sky over the North Atlantic! I can see it now, somewhere over the Atlantic there are several energy full-serve’s (high octane) for Low’s.

    Low to North Atlantic attendant located 700 miles south of Iceland: “Fill her up with premium grade energy so I can get really depressed and bomb out.”

  21. Impressive performance by Phil Kessel. He’s a true goal getter, who never quite fit in the Bruins’ system. But, he’s having and will continue to have a fine NHL career. His speed and sniper ability is wonderful to watch. Also nice to know how well his sister Amanda is doing for Team USA. They will face a real challenge on Wednesday against Canada. Not sure who the Men’s team play. I’m hoping it’s not Russia on Wednesday. I don’t think they can duplicate the feat of beating the Russians twice on their home ice.

  22. System for Tuesday is fairly potent clipper that drops like 5-7 inches all over
    the GReat Lakes region, Only to burp as it nears New England while transferring
    energy to the coast. We’re caught in the middle on this one.

    An inch or 2 maybe?????

    1. I like to use descriptions of things non-weather-related to describe weather. I think it helps people understand it better.

  27. We just watched jeopardy from last night. I was more interested in the banner running at the bottom. Its amazing what steps they took last night. From lowering speeds on pike to 40 NY to Boston to hundreds of cancelled flights to national guard heavy vehicles. I am always a fan of erring on the side of caution. I never had the sense the storm would be that extensive.

    1. Snow won’t be as bad (atrocious) as what we’ve seen at Sochi. I wouldn’t worry. Friday will be relatively mild, but still plenty of snow up there – both natural and man-made. Furthermore, the weekend actually looks like the mountains will see some snow and cooler temps.

  33. BZ sticking with coating to an inch for SE MA and Cape; 1-3″ for Boston and burbs; and 3-5″ for northern MA and southern NH.

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