The Week Ahead (Presidents Day Edition)

6:50AM

Today may be the start of a new week for some of you and the last day of a long weekend for others. Either way, it’ll be a cold and bright day, courtesy high pressure. But the active pattern is still with us. The difference this week will be that it will be a milder pattern as the mean trough of low pressure shifts back to the west and the jet stream lifts to the north over the eastern US, allowing somewhat milder weather to move into the region with time. This will set up a battle zone, however, which southern New England will find itself in a few times. The first battle is waged tomorrow, and results in snow, as a potent upper level disturbance and associated low pressure system moves across New England into air cold enough for accumulating snow, though onshore wind at the surface combined with milder air coming in aloft may cause some mixing and limit any snow over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as the South Coast and South Shore of MA. The second battle will be a weaker disturbance coming through Wednesday with rain or snow showers. A break comes Thursday as high pressure slides across the region, then moves to the east, allowing what will be the strongest push of mild air for Friday, but accompanied by rain showers as a cold front approaches. This front clears the region by early Saturday but on its heals may be yet another low pressure system, returning unsettled weather to the region later Saturday or Sunday. Timing and details are, of course, more uncertain several days away…

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-15 northwest of Boston, 15-20 Boston south except 20-25 some coastal areas. Wind light N to NE.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow arriving west to east in the morning and continuing through the afternoon before tapering off west to east from late afternoon through early evening, Mixing with or changing to rain at times parts of Cape Cod and coastal southeastern MA. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch Cape Cod, Islands, and immediate coast from Plymouth County to theΒ  South Coast of MA, 1-2 inches southern RI and interior southeastern MA to Boston, 2-4 inches central RI up along I-95, 4-6 inches west of I-95. Highs in the 30s. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 30. High 38.

271 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Presidents Day Edition)”

  1. Thank you TK. You are predicting a little more snow and some cooler temps than I thought might come our way!

          1. Hahaha, i almost bought one of those in Walpole. Even inside the house with the doors and windows closed u could still hear the cars.

  2. Thanks TK. We don’t have anyplace to put more snow. Did someone say it’d be gone by Friday ?

    And I made sure to get a good nights sleep and eat a healthy breakfast in anticipation of our test day πŸ˜€

    1. That snow will sure shrink up by Friday, but it will not be gone, unless somebody physically removes it. πŸ™‚

      And speaking of snow…….

      Contest announcement coming right after I fold the towels that are sitting in the laundry basket. πŸ˜‰

  3. Interesting from NWS:

    DEEP MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH DEEP OMEGA THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW…ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. THERE IS
    ALSO SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
    DEVELOPING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-2″/HR
    SNOWFALL RATES. WHILE IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR ALL
    SNOW…INCREASING SE FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SE NEW ENG WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY BRING A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SE NEW ENG WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUM SOMEWHAT.

    1. AND:

      EXPECT
      SNOWFALL OF 4-6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR WEST OF
      I95…2-4 INCHES ALONG THE I95 FROM NEAR PVD TO JUST WEST OF
      BOS…WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS S RI AND SE MA INCLUDING BOS DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING OR CHANGEOVER TO SOME RAIN. THE ONE WILD CARD IS THE INSTABILITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6″+ IF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE OBSERVED BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WATCH. THE OTHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IS IF
      THE CHANGEOVER IS DELAYED OR IS FURTHER SOUTH HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

  4. Still looking like a general 1-3 inches for Tuesday, the BIG meltdown starts Wed, am r we on? Sunday or before?

    Heading to Bass Pro then to Toby Keith’s Restaurant for lunch

    1. Hmm Charlie, first u said by Friday night, now by Sunday? Me thinks you’re getting nervous πŸ™‚ I’ll cut u a break, by sunset Saturday night. We also need to define “bare ground.” Are u saying if u see any bare ground at all? Or are we talking about a specific snow cover percentage?

        1. We can use yours, we know it will not be free of every bit of snow including snow banks, but how about 80% bare ground?

  5. Central mass northward gets 3-6, Boston 1-3, Providence 1-3, that’s all folks πŸ™‚
    Enjoy Presidents’ Day!!

  6. CONTEST!

    My brother, who lives on the north side of Woburn, about 1/2 mile outside I-95, shovels most of his snow from his driveway into a single pile in the back yard (which his dogs absolutely love). As of yesterday, the pile is about 10 feet high, 30 feet long, and 18 feet wide.

    Our job is to guess on which date will that pile disappear? It is virtually always after the last snow has fallen, and if any snow should fall after the pile was already melted, the contest would still be over.

    Put in your guess for the date he declares the pile 100% melted. Deadline is February 28! That gives you 10 days to decide based on current dimensions and weather during the next week plus…

    Vicki, would you like to record the guesses? If you can’t, I can do it. πŸ™‚

      1. DS there doing some special stuff over there on travelers street in the ink block, great to see for sure πŸ™‚

    1. With some multi-variable calculus u can actually compute that fairly accurately. The only unknown variable would be if we get more snow to add and how much. Everything else is know (or guesstimated). Let me consult the ‘ol Calc books πŸ˜€ (this may take 10 days, lol)

  7. Nice NAM run for me with 6 inches but we know that is overdone. Probably closer to 3 inches. As I said earlier I would expect winter weather advisories posted later today for interior SNE.

  8. Many short range models this morning are showing .5″ QPF for KBOS tomorrow. Ratios expected to be below climo though due to marginal surface temps, east wind, and higher sun angle.

      1. AND qpf has been trending upward.

        Don’t like the positioning of anything with this.

        Sure would NOT surprise me to see some RAIN along
        the coast. If precip is intense enough, may stay snow even
        at the coast. Temps aloft “appear” to be cold enough.

        As you say, yet another tricky forecast. Virtually have all been that way for one reason or anther. πŸ˜€

        1. Yes 850mb and 925mb will both be below 0C for entire event. Evaporational cooling processes will help out as well. I believe NAM is too warm as overlays only show an inch of snow for Boston from .5″ QPF.

  9. NWS forecast for Brookline, MA tomorrow:

    Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 33. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

    1. Point forecast, triggered from NAM data, hence the 3-5, which is probably up from the point forecast before it.

    1. Might go over to light rain when precip intensity lets up towards the end. Should work out similar to the storm we had last Thursday.

  10. I agree with Scott’s analysis. It’s likely to be a little brother version of last Thursday in many ways.

    Props to Scott, who many of us have been chatting with from the WBZ blog to here the last couple years, quickly on his way to becoming a top notch forecaster, in my opinion. πŸ™‚

      1. Isn’t that fun?

        Wait until you get to differential equations AND I can show
        you Meteorology text books full of differential equations. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€
        When I worked at Air Force Cambridge Research Labs, they
        made me read a text book with thos Diff Equations. It was
        some sort of atmospheric physics thing. Very technical.

        I’m sure you are up for it. Go Get em!!

      2. Ugh – don’t remind me. πŸ˜› .. I always struggled with calculus, finally started to understand it a little more during some of the met classes but never enough to feel confident. Ironically is that I remembered some of the basic rules and was able to use them to help my friend through a calculus class when he went to Wentworth. Somewhat satisfying. πŸ™‚

  11. GFS simply wants to RAIN all over SE MA and change in Boston. Inland is fine:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045

    That ocean is cold now. 37.8 and 38 for the 2 off shore buoys.
    And as Scott points out, we have a deep snow pack all over, including the Cape.

    Seriously, I am NOT sure it rains in Boston. Rain may be confined to Cape and Islands and FAR South Shore. I guess we’ll know tomorrow. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  12. Even with lower totals with the GFS this still looks to be an advisory level event for the interior. The coast may fall just short but close call there.

  13. Tk speaking of making big snow piles, as a kid I would always try and make the biggest pile of snow in a shady area, and hoped it last into April, and would get mad when it got warm and melted usually before then, every yr I would do this πŸ™‚

    1. I do something similar every year beside my garage, but it’s on the south side of the garage and catches many hours of sun, so it never seems to last that long. πŸ™‚

  14. I have two piles both about 8feet tall. 5 to 6 feet circle. and a 3 that has snow that is from december lol

    1. i make these piles and have them in a shaded area so they do not melt the longest one i had was till march 28 or something like that. but had the sledding hill going to april do to the snow piles.

  15. Something to think about is how the storm has behaved in the Midwest and so far its over produced vs. what was expected yesterday.

  16. I’m not sure many people south of Plymouth to Providence receive much if any meaningful accumulations, it might even be raining tomorrow late afternoon in these areas? That’s what I’m seeing, anyone else concur, or am I completely off base?

  17. I would say 3 inches and under for that area since I think there will be a change over. This is not snow from start to finish in the areas you mentioned.
    I am rooting for the NAM 6 inches for me in CT.

  18. Here I go again thinking more rain than snow. Not because I like rain. I hate rain. East wind tomorrow and retreating cold. Sounds similar to Thursday’s storm, only this one is less potent, I think. We’ll see. Interior could get a nice storm out of this.

    Then, the warm-up, which will be associated with successive waves of rain/mix disturbances. Dismal week, really, especially at the coast. We may see early spring-like seabreezes cool things down at the coast (especially over the south coast and Cape) to the upper 30s/low 40s, while it’s mid to upper 40s inland. If the sun comes out on Friday, which is doubtful, we would definitely see 50s in SNE. But, the problem is the sun is going to do lots of hiding this week.

    I see a more potent, snow-laden system coming in about 6/7 days. Too early to tell where that low will track. But with plenty of cold air behind it, a benchmark track could produce a major winter storm in SNE. I still think we will have several more major snow/mix storms in SNE.

    1. Yeah but some of the TV guys already said that the system 6/7 days out will be RAIN. So it’s already decided. πŸ˜‰

        1. Chicago area under Winter Storm Warning and this
          is without the Atlantic moisture influence and coastal
          development.

          Point is: this is a potent system

          1. Good call OS. I just looked at the radar and expected a little moisture starved system. Its big and potent already. Hard to believe it will only produce 1 maybe 2″ in boston

          2. ChaserTV
            Lightning with some of the snow in Illinois and Indiana β€ͺ#β€Žilwx‬ β€ͺ#β€Žinwx‬

  19. So far guesses are:

    OS 4/4/14
    DS 3/25/14
    WeatherWiz 4/26/14
    Captain 4/1/14

    TK – did you see question about sun exposure in your brother’s yard and also time of sun exposure? Thanks – this is FUN!

    1. I’m not sure about the time, obviously it grows as the days grow longer, but there isn’t much, because the hill slopes to the north. His snow pile is always the last one in the neighborhood – and that’s the only hint that will be given. πŸ™‚

  20. Has it ever snowed on Patriots Day? This year it’s on the 21st of April, so it’s highly unlikely. But, given that I’m running in the marathon, I’m curious to know if it’s ever snowed on marathon Monday? And no, I do NOT want snow on Patriots’ Day. I want it to be 55 and partly cloudy. My luck it’ll be a triple H 90 degree day.

  21. I created a “Contests” page much like the “Gardening” page so it’s easier to keep track of guesses in there.

  22. TK – I was not clear when I asked if you could create a contest page. I had meant that I can put one post on with totals. Do you think it’ll get pretty strung out if everyone posts dates? If not, I’m fine with that but I am also fine with keeping a spreadsheet and then updating it in a single post as needed??

    1. Whatever is easier for you is fine. They can put the guesses there, so long as everyone can find it. πŸ™‚

      1. As you suggested. If everyone puts guesses on the contest page, I’ll still keep track and then post a consolidated list on march 1. Don’t worry if you have already posted on this page. I’ve recorded them.

    1. It’s coming sooner than that. I believe we’ll feel the chill, beginning Sunday afternoon. The front may actually shunt a potent weather system to our south. In any case, by Monday our highs will likely be below freezing, and this may last a while.

      Friday will be quite mild. Perhaps 50s if the sun peaks through. Besides Friday, don’t expect any day this week to be abnormally mild. The range will be from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Please note, different story in DC and also places like St. Louis and Atlanta. Yes, spring fever will definitely be felt there almost all week. But, this is NE, not DC, St. Louis, or Atlanta. Parts of NNE (especially Northern Maine) may not see above-freezing temps at all this week, with off and on snow showers.

  23. Highest snow totals look to be in the interior on this one.
    12z NAM was more aggressive than 12z GFS with the snowfall. Will see if the 18z NAM holds serve.

  24. 18Z NAm snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    Boston 850MB temp REMAINS below freezing.

    Virtually the same qpf in Boston as inland. So why less snow?
    Ratio due to surface temp above freezing?
    Overdoing influence of ocean?]
    The NAM leprecon blowing hot it at the coast? http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4955031992141735&w=207&h=207&c=8&pid=3.1&qlt=90&rm=2

    I dunno.

    I have a sneaky feeling Boston gets close to 6 inches out of this. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    1. To the west and southwest of Chicago there have been some lightning strikes.
      Hadi you made a good point earlier this storm is over acheiving the midwest. Might the same thing happen here.

  25. My guess for the snow pile melt is April 7th.

    I am also getting a feeling that Boston will get a decent thumping of snow before a change to a bit of rain at the end. I have to be in that PM commute tomorrow….UGH!

    1. If I am reading that correctly OS, NH has the jackpot and Boston a bit of snow with probably more rain instead?

  26. I just noticed that Winter Weather Advisories are up from coastal CT all the way down to DC. Probably a good sign for snow for Boston and most of SNE as well.

    If I only didn’t have to commute tomorrow afternoon…UGH!

    1. So much melting…that I lost a grand total of about 0.4 inch of snow, 0.3 of which was blown away by the wind. πŸ˜›

      No melting here except a few areas on pavement – which I treated with ice melt. πŸ™‚

  27. Am I correct that for those especially I-95 (Boston-Providence) will have to rely on “dynamic cooling” like last week’s storm?

  28. Charlie, you are definitely in the subtropical zone of Massachusetts. There must be a perimeter around your property to ward off the cold. I observed NO melting at all today, and I am in the city and walked around a lot today. Even the side streets remained snow and ice-covered. Even my car, which was exposed to mid February sun, still has a layer of ice on it that did not melt one iota today. Do I expect melting this week? Yes. In fact, there will be some bare ground in spots come Sunday, especially in urban areas. And the snowbanks will become dirty and significantly smaller.

  29. I’m seeing so many people walking on the streets, just saw 2 kids maybe 14 yrs old almost got hit, so dangerous, I’ve seen a parent walking on top of the snow with kids probably trying to get to stop and shop or somewhere, all they need to do is slip and they fall and they land right in the right lane, usually there’s a sidewalk, again so dangerous

  30. Hey guys . On of the links Os posted was showing The low going over eastern mass. How come its not more of a rain event than snow?? Just curious

          1. But why are the 850MB temperatures cold you ask?

            Answer sort of…

            For one thing this is a cold clipper dropping down out of Canada and does not have origins in the Gulf. In short, we don’t have that conveyor belt of warm air at 5,6 or 7,000 feet precluding
            snow along the coast. It’s a cold core storm.
            Any rain will be due to boundary layer issues
            near the coast, even though ocean is at 37 degrees.

            At Boston, I don’t see it as an issue. I just don’t, unless the precipitation is just too light.

  31. All TV mets on Chs. 4, 5, 7 and 25 agree on snow amouts with 1-3″ for Boston and 3-6″ N&W. I can’t recall all media outlets with snowfall maps exactly the same, with no deviation whatsoever long before the storm actually arrives.

    TK – Do you concur as well?

    1. Very unusual. Some of the TV maps have changed from this am. Eric (BZ) has put the 1-3″ and the 3-6″ line right along the Mass Pike.

    2. There was a storm this year where all were in agreement. Darned if I can remember which one. I’ll look at the maps I have tomorrow

  32. 1-3 in Boston is about right IMO, Logan closer to 1 inch. I’m expecting about 3-4 inches to fall here πŸ™‚

  33. Put me down for a snowier solution S and E of Boston.

    Looks like 850 temps are -3 to -6C, good dynamics, heavy precip …. Perhaps here on the Cape will go snow to rain, but I think Plymouth and Marshfield are going to end up more like 2-4 and Boston about 4 inches.

    On a diffent subject, the cold has left some amazing slush puppy ice on Cape Cod Bay beaches. At high tide, ice walls have formed that block the high tide from where it would usually get to. The marshes are frozen and the Cape is a winter wonderful. I dont think any snow has melted since Saturday night.

  34. Pete B puts the dividing line for 1-3″ vs 3-6″ further north and west of the city than other TV mets. He also gave some reasoning as to why Boston might see just a coating.

    1. &@60#9\-\-\-)\-)\-\-(\-(/-8/-\#&; 9\-\@\-&;&; 78@5;&-8/:-[:-/:-X:-[:-X:-[:-XO:-):-DO:-)x-(:-D<3:-D:-\:-DO:-):-$:-X<3:-X<3O:-):-D:-V:-DO:-):-D:-\:-DO:-):-DO:-):-$:-XO:-)o_O<3o_O<3:-D<3:-DO:-):-D<3:-D:-V:-D&; 9\-9\#0&\@\-9/! 9\-9\@5-9\-9\-9\-95γ€ŠΒ£β™₯》~β™₯÷€[€€{€

  35. Harvey pointed out the fairly “cold” ocean temps to our east. At 37F it is just about as cold as they can get. The coldest temps for Boston Buoy that I can recall during my lifetime was around 35-36F.

  36. I am mobile now…still monitoring hrrr.
    Showing a very active coastal off the va coast
    At 7am. Poised to nail us big time.

    Seriously….could we be looking at another
    Bomb?????? Can’t post a link now. Will later.
    Buckle up!!@@@

  37. I actually saw a few news stations and the majority had Boston and my area on the 1-3,2-4 inch range, same for Boston, Wednesday will be in the 40’s which will begin the meltdown, I’ll be curious how the snowpack fares Thursday night and Friday with showers and temps around 50. Temps overnight Thursday will not get below freezing so continuous melting will be occurring. Finally a nice weekend it appears πŸ™‚ radar watching starting tomorrow πŸ™‚

  38. Vicki, please mark me down for 4/19 for the demise of the snow pile, if for any reason, because that’s my birthday.

    NWS has my location in northern CT in the 4-6″ zone for tomorrow. Attainable I suppose but think it may be a bit aggressive.

    18″ snowpack right now in my backyard and no melting today!

  39. Yeah nothing melted today and perfect example would be side walks that had ice and snow in the morning when I walked into work looked the same on my way home.

  40. I’m not understanding. TK said “Snow accumulation less than 1 inch Cape Cod, Islands, and immediate coast from Plymouth County to the South Coast of MA, 1-2 inches southern RI and interior southeastern MA to Boston, 2-4 inches central RI up along I-95, 4-6 inches west of I-95. Highs in the 30s. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.”

    OS said major impact on afternoon commute. Is it timing? If it starts mid am and snows through 7 pm is it because there will be nearly no accumulation all morning and then several inches per hour mid to late afternoon?

  41. All three major stations have different web maps. 7 had 3-6 up closer to rt 2, 4 has 3-6 along pike, 5 has 3-6 down closer to S MA border. Have I said how much I dislike 5s maps πŸ™‚

  42. For snowlovers it’s really too bad this is a daytime storm in mid February. If this were to occur overnight there would be significant accumulation, even at the coast. But, that is unlikely given the fact that it’ll be snowing during the day and when temps are marginal at best. Saturday afternoon’s snow did not accumulate well, either. We do know that last Thursday afternoon snow accumulated for a couple of hours, but I do think that that was anomalous. I don’t expect the snow to come down as hard as last Thursday.

    All this said, for Charlie’s bare ground to appear – and I don’t mean the occasional spot – tomorrow’s snow will not help. Wednesday doesn’t look like a big melting day. But Thursday noon to and Friday evening does. Not enough to melt an 18 inch snowpack in the suburbs, but perhaps enough to melt the snow in the public garden. I’m very doubtful all of it will be gone. In fact, I’m quite sure there’ll still be some snow around this weekend, and not only the snowbanks and piles.

    1. Could see a sustained period of cold, perhaps even up to 4 consecutive days of sub-freezing temps during the day. That is quite rare this late in winter.

  43. Looking at tomorrow’s storm even if temps are marginal and snow doesn’t accumulate right away on the pavement it will be immediately on the existing snowpack. And this snow pack means business as it has a high water content and will be harder to melt than some of the snow we had earlier in the season.

  44. TV met snow maps vary a little for the 1-3″, 2-4″, and 3-5″ areas. Obviously more to the north and west. Timing looking more like late am or so and outer Cape may see just rain.

    1. I posted that snow map last night and it has looked the same for at least the last 12 hours . I am not sure it has been updated. I think it will be about as close as any to being correct. unfortunately I am in the 4-6″ range and I am hoping for a little less.

  45. Regarding that cold …..

    Logan’s dewpoint is 4F.

    It can and could “warm up” quickly. Could see one of those 15F rises in 2 hrs along the coastline. It is 34F at Block Island.

    But, just gazing at the current surface winds, many are light and variable and at some point today, I get the sense the SE and E flow will get briefly pinched off when the low passes just south of or near Boston.

    Get the idea that not too far inland, perhaps outside of 495, its in the 20s most of this event.

    How about Logan …. Even if it shoots up to 32F, wonder if the dewpoint may be lagging at around 20-22F and when the heavy stuff hits, it wont surprise me if the temp holds around 30F. We’ve been so cold the last several days, the surfaces are so cold, just inland, I think anything and everything that falls sticks very quickly and easily.

  46. Reviewing short range guidance and current radar trends and see no need to change the timing but may down-tweak a few of the amounts especially southern areas (not by much).

    Potent, but fast system. Almost all of the precipitation is going to come as the upper catches up with the moisture just south of New England and tugs it northward. Rain gets into Cape/Islands early then into most of southeastern MA as the precipitation gets lighter toward the end, probably all the way into Boston but after the measurable snow has fallen there.

    1. TK – am trying to figure out if it will in fact be another horrendous afternoon commute from Boston west. Will we have all occur within an hour or so as we did on Thursday (which is what I sort of thought OS was saying we might)?

      1. It will be quick and early to the west. The later into the commute people wait to leave, the better.

        1. Thanks TK and OS – Mac works an early day and usually leaves by 3:00 at the earliest. He’s waited on both of the last storms and it’s been a good choice. I’ll suggest he do the same this time.

      2. Vicki, as things are playing out, the worst of it “may” be over
        for the evening commute. Should be ending somewhere around
        5ish? give or take a bit. This is from looking at the HRRR
        Simulated Radar reflectivity images. All subject to change as
        things evolve.

        1. Latest HRRR run indicates the absolute worst of it
          will be around 4PM. Over around 6PM.

          So the JUICE falls from 1PM to 5PM or thereabouts.

          On radar, still looks like it will start earlier.

          1. oops – didn’t read this before posting above. I’m wondering then if 3:00 time is the best to leave. Maybe 2:00 is better

  47. While I agree the cold will hang on longer than modeled, i dont agree it equates to more snow further south. This time around, the best dynamics and lift will be areas to the north.

  48. Morning…

    Only model I have looked at so far was the HRRR. It has it precipitating in
    our area from NOON til 5PM and that is all. Current radar has a really funky
    distribution, however, the NYC radar shows the coastal really coming together.

    Looks to be brief and intense. I don’t see a changeover in Boston, but who knows.

    Heard Todd Gutner awhile ago in the car. He said INSTENSE snow for awhile.
    3-6 inches N&W with 1-3 in the City. WHERE do they keep getting 1-3?
    If it doesn’t changeover, Boston will come in with more than 1-3. I don’t get it.
    NOT at all.

    Need to look over some more data. Will be back later. My gut says to stick with what
    I said last night. Logan comes in with 4 inches, Hadi & I pick up about 6 inches.
    Subject to change if I find conflicting data. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    1. Todd’s amounts just don’t jive with the NWS wording in the winter weather advisory for 3-5.” But in this case, he may be right. It snows longer further north too which might be contributing to higher amounts there.

  49. I just checked out our local radar – Is it starting sooner than previously thought?
    I have a feeling we may get a wee-bit more snow in Brighton than the forecasted amount of 3″. It’s certainly cold enough, currently at 20 degrees with a dew point of 11!

        1. This is the radar to watch early on. It shows some
          really INTENSE echos going on down around NYC.
          This is the Coastal getting its act together and it means
          business, even if short lived.

          I don’t think I can remember a Winter with so many
          storms that had at least a period of INTENSE snow.

          Someone above said the most lift and dynamics are
          North of the City. Don’t agree at all. Looking at the HRRR simulated radar reflectivity, it “appears” to me
          that BOSTON is squarely in the MIDDLE of the most
          intense activity. If that is the case, there will be NO
          rain and Boston has much higher numbers that currently
          forecast. πŸ˜€

  50. Impressive echoes off the jersey shore. They look like they are heading fast towards southeastern mass. Nws has me under 6 to 8 inches but idk if that will confirm. Yes there are impressive echoes but very small In nature. Unless the radar fills up quickly! I have class at 12 at Umass Lowell but I think I will rather stay home and avoid the headache

  51. Don’t let that area of snow nearby on radar fool you too much.

    If you compare this to the structure of last Thursday’s storm, there are similarities but also great differences.

    For one thing, this one is way smaller, coverage-wise. However, for its size, it’s quite a package of energy. Maybe the Brad Marchand of winter storms, if you’ll pardon the expression. πŸ˜‰

    Last Thursday’s thump of snow took place on the advance ribbon of moisture well northeast of the parent low. The same section of today’s system is coming through now, as cloudiness with limited snow reaching the ground.

    We have to wait for the moisture tongue to the south (the developing secondary) to get yanked north northeastward by the upper level system. It’s all quite compact and will happen rather quickly. But it is also very progressive, so it may snow intensely for a while in any given location where it’s cold enough for snow, but the intense portion will last 1/3 of the time, or less, than it did for Thursday’s storm.

    As for the surface, it’ll warm up as soon as we pick up an E to SE wind near the coast and in southeastern MA, which will be taking place by late morning.

  52. DRY SLOT WARNING!
    Watch for a dry slot abruptly shutting things down from the western part of Cape Cod into Plymouth County by mid to late afternoon (first south, later north).

      1. Again – amazing. If this verifies, it’ll be the third system (at least) that this has occurred. OS – I am not experienced enough to read the time frame. You said ending at 4:00 correct? Start??

        1. IF I am reading it correctly, that is a ONE HOUR accumulated snow fall ENDING at 21Z which is 4PM.
          So this intense snowfall would have been from 3PM to 4PM. AGAIN this is just a single model, doesn’t mean it will happen. πŸ˜€

          1. But still GREAT to know OS when taking all into consideration since it is a very busy time for commuters. Thank you for posting and for your explanation!!!

      1. You have been right so many times this winter, i wouldnt discount that possibility. The way this winter has gone, nothing is off the table. Lets hope for some 3″/hr rates!

        1. Ace,
          This model accurately predicted that last Saturday’s storm would track more to the East and the Boston area
          would MISS out on the heavier snow. IT happened
          EXACTLY as the HRRR portrayed it.

          Does it mean it is correct all of the time? Of course not.

          BUT, I’m not sure we can totally and completely discount it either. We shall see.

          IF Those echoes On radar to the South come up here as SNOW as we think it will, those 3 inch per hour rates
          WILL materialize. πŸ˜€

          1. The RGEM IIRC accurately portrayed saturday’s event/non-event as well. I wonder what that is saying for today

            1. I think that is a Proprietary program
              and not available to the general public.
              Too bad. It would be nice to see.

    1. He was never thinking this would be any more than an inch or 2 in the city on southward. Surprised his amounts for norther MA are so low though. He has the heaviest snow way up there.

    2. I thought that was the general consensus, about 2-3 in Boston, less south and east and more north and west?

  53. Blog is updated: Tweaked the snow down slightly, very slightly, in a few southern areas but it’s basically the same forecast as before. A few other tweaks as we go out in time but nothing important right now.

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