Frigid Friday Forecast

190 Comments

7:19AM

Very short update for now, full discussion later.

*For late February standards, frigid day today, as we are in some pure Arctic air. It just won’t feel that cold because of the higher sun angle.

*Cold eases ahead of the next front Saturday, which brings a period of snow or snow showers Sunday.

*Storm tracks south of the region Monday, light to moderate snowfall is most likely.

*Cold air and dry again into the middle of next week.

*Less cold later next week but watching another storm to the south.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-10, coldest interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 30s.  Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 20. High 28.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.

190 thoughts on “Frigid Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK!
    Damn! It sure is frigid out there!!!
    Everyone have a great Friday, and stay warm 🙂
    Brrrr!!!

  3. Good Morning and Thank you TK – if Monday bites the dust, that would make three in a week. Meanwhile, horrible problems caused by the heavy rains in CA.

    1. It’s not just a few miles either way, we have one showing axis of heaviest snow along the MA, VT, NH border, and another with the heaviest snow down by DC and virginia. What are we supposed to do with that?!?

      1. I was actually just gonna say that looking at the overnight euro, its shift north looks very similar to the GFS, minus a couple inches. All other models have such a wide range of solutions i think its time to discount them and blend the gfs and euro to give most in SNE a good 6-12″

    1. Very true Hadi. I dont ever remember this many storms where the ratios were high with light powdery snow.

      2. I do remember March storms where the snow was heavy and the sap had begun to run and tree damage was very bad – later in the month though and specifically the March 1984 storm which was horrible for tree damage.

  8. Did someone say Brrrrr

    Had to clear off the car from last evening’s snow squall.
    8 Degrees at my house. Funny as there was an arctic front pass
    through with those squalls. Yesterday AM it was 10 Degrees.
    Arctic front accounted for a 2 Degree drop. 😆 😆 😆 😆

  9. Hello,

    I made an inquiry of Eurowx.com regarding their snow map. As we suspected,
    they use an algorithm and do NOT base it on a 10:1 ratio. Their algorithm is
    virtually the same as InstantWeatherMaps.com.

    Here is the response email they sent me:

    ECMWF doesn’t provide a snowfall product directly (nor do most NWP models). So we calculate it using the Kuchera Method which is a sliding scale so to speak, taking into consideration vertical temperature profile. We also run our own algorithms to determine precipitation type before applying the Kuchera Method.

    We had tried a regression of the NWS/FAA tables, but those numbers proved to come out too large consistently.

    1. Great info OS, thanks. I was looking at the Eurowx.com snow map last night vs the QPF output and it actually seemed pretty reasonable. It was showing a foot of snow in southern CT and RI from a QPF of 0.9-1.0″. Makes sense with ratios.

    1. Right. If we go by the 06Z runs, the energy comes ashore at hour 39.
      1AM tomorrow+15 hours or 4PM tomorrow. WOW!!

      How are supposed to know how this is all going to play out????????????

      Again and I’ve said this a number of times, not a single forecast has been easy.
      No slam dunks. Every single one has had wiggles and wobbles and one factor or another playing into it. As one of you said, on some we couldn’t figure out
      what was going on while NOWCASTING!!!!

      INSANE Winter.

      You know what, I have a sneaky feeling that we are going to get hammered
      by this. A COLOSSAL over-running DUMP of high ratio snow. The ARCTIC COLD holds, however, the powerful GULF moisture gets tremendous lift
      up over the dome of arctic air and just pummels us. 😆 😆 😆 😆

      It’s not my forecast just yet, just a gut feeling I am getting this morning.

    1. It’s not terrible for sure. I feel it is suppressed too much. We shall see.

      This is absolutely WILD in my opinion. 😀

      1. I don’t believe any of the models yet and I won’t believe them today and only somewhat tomorrow. There could be some model accuracy on Sunday.

  12. NAM looks further north through 51 hrs. Every time i say that though, the next few frames magically drops it south. We’ll see about this one

  13. 12Z NAM snow fall through hour 84. Only a tiny bit left anyway.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Not that it is suppressed South, BUT there isn’t much QPF with NAM at all.

    That is what I meant by I was NOT LIKING the way the NAM was handling
    the situation.

    On the plus side, whatever QPF the NAM had to offer, it got it as far North as
    the Boston area. So we keep watching.

    SOMETHING changed to have the NAM reverse course like this.

    I think we are getting there.

    PREDICTION:

    12Z Euro comes back with HIGHER snow totals than the 0Z run. We shall see.

    Onto the GFS. 😆

  14. Odd to see the NAM with less QPF than the GFS and Euro. Though it usually starts to jack itself up as the event approaches.

    The northward trend in the models this morning is significant given we are now within 3 days and the storm is in the process of coming on shore. Better sampling data available = better model initialization

  16. Agree, NAM has had no consistency and is out of range.

    Looking at the GFS ensembles, they support the operational run with 1″ QPF amounts across much of SNE, tapering to 0.75″ near the VT/NH border. This would support widespread 10″+ amounts pretty much everywhere.

  17. I see no reason to disagree with DT’S 1st guess map.

    Careful tho. Not everyone in the 8-14 belt is getting 12+. 🙂

  18. It seems the problem with these past several storms is not as much the amount but when and how it falls. There has been a fairly consistent very slow buildup and then a huge dump of 2-4 inches per hour just prior to afternoon rush hour and at the time schools release. It’s just one of the reasons IMHO that the amount isn’t always where the focus should be.

    Is timing for something like that very difficult to predict?

  20. To be honest I am not sure why this storm is getting so much attention. It’s been snowing for months now…I am numb to it…just another storm to cleanup. Been there, done that, and will be there again. This storm has a “first storm the season” hype to it for some reason.

      1. That’s about 4 or 5 inches for Boston OR just about what
        yesterday’s 12Z Euro showed.

        Now I have to take back my thoughts on the 12Z Euro.

        Now, I have NO CLUE whatsoever what the Euro will come in with.

        These models have been schizophrenic!!!! 👿

  25. OK, so I’m here once again asking for travel advice. My daughter has an interview in Phoenix, AR on Wednesday. The plan is for her to fly out of Logan on Tuesday. Should we move her flight up to Sunday? Which is a long time for her to be alone in Phoenix, not to mention this is getting costly. So, I’m interested in everyone’s opinion, here. Thanks everyone.

    1. Personally, imho, I think she would be absolutely AOK
      to fly out on Tuesday. Whatever snow we get, will be out of here
      by Monday evening sometime.

  26. This is very odd to see the 12Z nam push much farther north while at the same time see the 12z GFS shift much farther south. I don’t think we’ll have a good handle on this for quite some time unfortunately

    2. Yes, indeed. It’s getting OUT OF HAND in a hurry here. No consistency whatsoever, run to run OR model to Model.

      I sure wouldn’t want to be a professional forecaster on this one.

      What do you do?

      You’d have to say snow is likely, amounts to be determined.
      Station managers won’t allow that. What to do? What to do?

      Or as Carl Malden used to say: “WHAT WILL YOU DO?”

  27. Just a thought.

    With Arctic Air draining down from the N and NE for this event, I have NOT
    heard word one about the possibility of OCEAN EFFECT SNOW. 850MB temperatures
    will be “about” -15C or about 5 Degrees 5.

    Surface temperatures will be about 25 Degrees or so. SST is about 36 Degrees or so.

    IS that NOT enough differential to produce OCEAN SNOW????

    Appears it is to me.

    1. Au contraire mon frere! 😀

      AceMaster says:
      February 26, 2014 at 2:34 PM
      Thanks Mark. Not a big shift for Boston itself, but for areas just to the south its a huge shift warmer. Areas like NYC its an even more significant shift considering the actual shift in track was not all that significant. Wundermaps show a lot of boston’s snow coming in the form of ocean effect ahead of the push of heaviest snow from the west which was interesting.
      Reply

  29. Today is last day for guesses on TK’s contest.

    TK are you guessing??

    I looked quickly and may be wrong about some who have not given amounts:

    Cat
    Arod
    John
    Rainshine
    Retrac
    Merlin

    That’s just a quick list and sorry if I missed you but please just post the date on the contest page and I’ll record it 🙂 Of course no problem at all if there are not more who want to guess

  30. Wow, was not expecting to see such a dramatic shift south with the GFS. Generally less QPF as well, even in the jackpot areas.

    OS, I was reading another blog and a local meteorologist did say he felt conditions would be ripe for some ocean enhancement, though he felt the most favored area would be Plymouth County.

    1. Thanks Mark.

      That’s the first I’ve heard any mention of that.

      IF everything sets up “just” right, the OCEAN EFFECT SNOW “could” make
      up for any deficiencies in QPF due the Southern Suppression of the system.

      Of course, the set up would have to be PERFECT, but I’ve seen it before. 😆

    1. 12Z NAM looked like it introduced a bit of rain sun eve/night with an initial batch of precip ahead of the feature presentation

            1. EXACTLY!!

              I really do wonder what the Euro will do?
              “could” go either way. I have NO CLUE!

              NAM trending North
              GFS trending South
              CMC trending North
              Euro trending North
              FIM trending North

              hmmmm

              Still need to look at 12Z Euro and 12Z Fim. These 2 we’re still looking at 0Z runs.

  34. Harvey Tweet:

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 49m
    Trend for The Monday Snow Threat is for the heavier snow to fall well south of The Boston area.

        1. Someone just called him out on it and he responded:

          @Nick_SNEwx @stormchaserjs Not just 1 run of 1 model….consensus of all models has been shifting So.

          Really??? I guess if you look at it from the perspective of the last 3-4 days then yes, it has trended south.

          1. WOW!!!

            The latest runs on ALL models, Exept the GFS,
            have TRENED SOUTH!!!!

            What is he smoking????????????????????????

  36. Not to dampen the hopes of those longing for spring, but did anyone look at the rest of the 12z GFS run? Other than a very brief relaxation in the cold towards the end of next week, the entire run is COLD right through St Patrick’s Day along with storm threats on 3/7, 3/10, 3/13, and another system loading up near the Gulf on 3/16.

  37. A lot of people on twitter are not to excited about this storm. I am curious to see how the ocean enhancement pans out. Looking at the Noaa Graphic Forecast the winds are suggested to be from the north with no easterly component. Makes you wonder.

    1. I’m “almost” there! 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿
      👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿 👿

  41. Still delivers 6″+ south of a Hartford to Providence line.

    About 4-5″ along the Pike. 3-4″ north of there.

    2-3″ on the NH border.

  42. Todd G tweet

    @ToddWBZ: Monday Storm Update: All major operational models keep heavy snow south of Boston area…for now. #FingersCrossed

  43. Hello, good afternoon, no changes to what i was thinking. NYC to Philly will see the brunt of this storm, Boston south may see 3-5 inches but north of Boston sees very little. Great news!! Give the snow to the mid Atlantic we’ve had enough, bring on spring 🙂 good day 😉

  44. My Ugh Meter just crashed and burned!! Off the charts!!!!

    Euro now delivers a whopping 3-4 inches for Boston.

    CMC is HIGHER Qpf than 0Z run coming in with about .39 inch.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    Gives us a good thump on 3/8. 😀

    So which way is it going to go? Is it South OR Not?????

    The 2 biggest players, Euro and GFS has system suppressed waaaaay to the South.

    So what are we to think? Doesn’t look good, does it?

    1. Nope! If its gonna be cold at least let us enjoy some freakin snow! 3-4” won’t cut it. I could sneeze that off my doorstep

  45. NAM is cooking now. This should be interesting. 😆

    We shall see if this runs joins the Southern Suppressed parade.

  46. You guys waste to much time looking at computer models. I told you yesterday what was going to happen when accuweather and H.M. Said we would get a foot. I said it is going out to see. So the next storm threat focus on what they say and Forcast the opposite what they say. Forcast works every time.

    1. Where does it go when it goes out to see? Does it go to the Park?
      A concert? A movie? Dinner? Where oh where does it go?

      😆 😆

  47. Stop the southward trend. I went from a foot on the 6z GFS to 6 inches on the 12z GFS. I think this is the beginning of a light to moderate snowfall for the region.

      1. Old Salty I just went with a gut feeling and I think were starting to see that happen here. I want a good dumping of
        snow and I never bought the 18 inches the EURO was showing earlier. Now I will be happy with 6 inches.

    1. Planned my annual ski trip for around the same week, first couple weeks in march. Its usually milder around that time. Heading up next friday and it looks like ill need all the warmest thermals

  49. Ya know, with the delay in update of the GFS till 2018 now, the euro will be heavily relied on the next few years. It really needs to figure out its issues in the medium range its been having for a while now. Its getting to the point where we really have no solid go-to model in the 3-7 day period anymore

  50. Here is some info on the SERF:

    The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational WRF-NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC). Output is available at 3h intervals through 87 hours. The SPC ensemble post-processing focuses on diagnostics relevant to the prediction of SPC mission-critical high-impact, mesoscale weather including: thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, large scale critical fire weather conditions, and mesoscale areas of hazardous winter weather.

    BTW, this BABY is coming NORTH on the latest run!!!

        1. That is so far outside the scope of all the other guidance I think it’s in a different universe.

    1. What About it? The Cold here for March 16? That’s like 14F here.

      OR the BIG low in Texas?

      What you thinken?

      1. Big upper low on the model. It’s the GFS in the way-out, so it doesn’t mean much, other than the trend is to keep the pattern cold.

    1. As, I think, they should. If any precip occurs then, the boundary layer might be too mild in southern New England.

      1. I don’t think so. It still SNOWS, at least up this way.
        Perhaps Cape and Islands to far South Shore. :F

  53. I guess this particular event isnt a traditional looking low with a big precip envelope extending well N and W of the low center.

    It looks more like a thin strip of precip along and north of a front.

  60. I still think DT’s 1st guess map may verify, but toward the lower end.

    We’ll see. Jury’s out at this point still.

        1. Enough out of you Charlie…first you make our storm disappear and then you tell me that school may still be cancelled. I am not listening to you anymore! 🙂

        1. This was the period to watch, 2/26 – 3/4. Not getting my hopes up again, no more periods to watch. Pattern appears locked and loaded for cold and dry.

    1. seems like if it jogs north, by 30 or 40 miles, Boston is in the sweet spot, I would not hitch my wagon to any numbers until tomorrow night or later

  65. BRING on SPRING.

    Screw this Snow watch crap!

    On again off again, yes/no/maybe/yes/maybe/no/yes/Huh?/I duno/yes/no/no/no/no and for the last time I told you NO!!!!!!!!!!! 👿 👿

  69. As I said last week I am way ready for warmer weather. And if no snow then screw this cold. It’s brutal out tonight.

  70. I really like the clear mornings and evenings this time of year, because if you have some horizon landmarks, you can see the sun dramatically moving northward on the horizon. Allow 2 or 3 days to go by between watching and the change is amazing.

    Boston max sun angle at solar noon crosses 40 degrees above the horizon, at 40.1 degrees.

  72. Mac is grilling. And as such I am required (self imposed) to sit on the deck. I’m having trouble finding the deck under the snow but out I go 🙂

      1. Was yummy and not bad out. Absolutely no breeze. The only problem was the grill grate was knee high. He’s thinking of inventing a hydraulic lift for grills in winter 😉

  73. Had some nice sled / snowboard time in my back yard with my son, who says he’s watching us all here and will be chiming in more. 😉

    I prefer to let the models do the yes / no / maybe so / on again / off again thing, while I take the same approach, conservative start, no #’s until it’s time, and then try to make the best call I can.

    Same deal this time. 🙂

    But it’s not looking too good right now if you want big snow. 😛

    1. Not up for more winter weather, but feeling like models don’t know left from right until the event occurs.

      1. I thought last winter was tough on the models.

        Well, this winter makes it look like they aced last winter.

    2. I appreciate your hard work tk, but now mention the word snow and cold and I and most want to vomit, I understand its where we live, but this winter has been borderline get the hell outa here type of winter. No I’m not disrespecting anyone, I’m kidding but for the 200,000 newcomers to the area the last decade, they may change there thinking after this winter. I’ve had enough of 5 months of inside stuff, and so have my kids. Root for spring!!! 🙂 plus for most spring is better for the economy 🙂

      1. Snow isn’t melting here, but sublimating.
        Still have 11 inches on the ground, solid!

        Root for what you want. Mother Nature ain’t gonna listen. 🙂

        We’re getting rid of the stormy pattern, but keeping the cold.

        The snowpack holds some nice moisture for the water supply but beyond its melt we may not be getting much help again soon.

      2. Build an ice rink lol. Best thing I ever did kids love being outside and having a blast. Can’t forget the beers to relax while resurfacing the ice

  74. People know what they are getting. It’s simple to me if you don’t like it, move. Many other parts of the country deal with awful heat and humidity in the summer that is worse than cold and snow.

  75. The blog is updated!

    I’ll be around off and on remote tonight and updating the blog both Saturday & Sunday.

    Have a great weekend!

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