Last Full Day Of Winter

144 Comments

7:39AM

On the calendar, today is the final full day of winter. Spring arrives tomorrow at 12:57PM.

Today’s weather, though still with a winter chill, will be a little less cold than the last 2 days. As high pressure slips offshore and low pressure approaches from the southwest, sun will give way to clouds. Precipitation will arrive this evening and will likely be in the form of snow or a snow/sleet mix northwest of Boston, where some minor accumulation is expected. Elsewhere, it should be rain, with rain overtaking most of the region in the early hours of Thursday, peaking between 3AM and 6AM, before the entire rain area sweeps offshore about dawn. Thursday itself will be a mild day for the first day of Spring as clouds break for sun with dry air sweeping in behind the departing low. A secondary cold front will come through without fanfare at night and set up a breezy and cool but dry Friday. Another small system passes through on Saturday – with mostly rain showers though some snow showers are possible northern areas if precipitation arrives early enough. A more significant shot of cold air follows this Sunday into early  next week. Still eyeing a storm threat in the Tuesday / Wednesday period next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 40-45. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, starting as snow/sleet from near I-95 northwestward, especially north of the Mass Pike, where a coating to 1 inch may occur. A brief period of heavier rain after 3PM from west to east, tapering off at dawn. Lows 30-35 early then rising to 35-40. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early with a few showers lingering then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers. Low 32. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

144 thoughts on “Last Full Day Of Winter”

  2. Thanks tk Charlie says:
    March 19, 2014 at 7:36 AM
    Heading out to work, don’t chase the carrot, winter is over, think spring!!!
    Looking like a couple of nice spring days ahead
    Reply

  3. This is for john
    It’s the 1st thing brought up in every conversation with clients on how bad this winter was, worst winter in many many yrs good day john

  7. Thanks TK.

    Your thoughts on storm threat next week? JMA is pretty convinced any storm
    to develop would be the OTS variety.

    Many thanks again.

    1. OS, JMA did not say that. He said:

      “In short we are in colder than average with potential for winter weather events or cold rain events for the foreseeable future.”

      He did not say one way or another whether he thought the storm next week would go out to sea.

      2. Here’s what he said later:

        retrac says:
        March 19, 2014 at 6:31 AM
        00z GFS has it right IMO.

        There’s a channel carved in the atmosphere it seems to me and it’s OTS.

          1. Geez.

            I’m alright. My Bad. Wow! That was gruesome!

            I guess I’m wired to an OTS solution will use anything at my means. 😆

            Sorry about that.

          2. Geez.

            I’m alright. My Bad. Wow! That was gruesome!

            I guess I’m wired to an OTS solution will use anything at my means. 😆

            Sorry about that.

  8. I will (respectfully) disagree with TK only in the sense that any snow threat next week would be Wednesday and beyond as opposed to Tuesday.

    1. The reason for including Tuesday in the threat window is based on several instances this winter in which the northern jet – driven system arrived 12 to 24 hours ahead of the prognosticated time of several days prior.

  9. Just a guess from me and I’m going with no storm will bother us with snow next week. Everything would need to line up flawlessly and I don’t think that happens .

    1. All that really needs to happen is phasing that is not too far offshore and resultant track. Cold Air will be in place at least to start with. We will also have 2 robust sources of energy upstream. Their interaction is key.

  11. Thanks TK !

    We are back to bad habits precip wise, as the month is more than -1.5 inches below normal. Hope tonight’s event might get us a few tenths of an inch.

    1. Drought? When I lived in tx we had 91 days straight with no rain, and it was 95-100 degrees, that’s a drought. What we have here are very minor in comparison.

  12. My theory on when the big east coast storm is coming is …..

    When a big pattern shift is about to occur.

    This overall pattern the last several months has been one of the most long lasting, stable patterns I can recall in a while.

    Eventually, when its about to change to something else hemisphere wide, I think I can recall in past hemispheric pattern changes some big storms that occured during that 3-5 day transition period.

  13. Thanks TK! I appreciate all you do to keep us informed. Besides, I heard you don’t even like carrots. 🙂

  14. Projected high for next tuesday is 44 not sure on wednesday but I thought I had heard around the same. Daytime storm if it went that way = no snow if those projected temps hold true.

      1. Ch7 has 44 for high and that’s where I saw it. NOAA has 35. And as you said ch5 has 34 keeping in mind these tempatures are projected and could swing either way.

          1. Yup. This time of year its about how cold it is above, with less importance, relatively speaking, on how cold it is at the surface.

        2. Channel 4 has upper 20s.

          In addition..44 would not eliminate a snow threat that night or the next day.

  16. From DT:

    *** NEW UPDATE ON MARCH 25-26 POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM ***

    Although most of the model data remains somewhat ambiguous there remains strong indications that there is going to be a significant East Coast winter storm sometime around March 25 -26. I believe that the overall pattern will favor some sort of coastal system coming up from the southeast US but the data is not yet conclusive.

    There Is still a viable snow area out there where we have a MILLER B type of winter storm. (MILLER B = the prime area or initial low moves through the Midwest and is fairly weak. That Low dies and new Low refer two as a secondary Low e- develops over the Virginia Maryland or New Jersey Coast. The sorts a systems invariably bring about a significant whole in the precipitation shield over these areas and as result MILLER B type East Coast winter storms only end up affecting Pennsylvania New York City and New England).

    The regular or operational models are not that impressive. The 0z early WED AM European model has a system moving harmlessly out to sea. The 0z GFS shows much of the same sort of thing and the 0z WED Canadian model in fact supports the MILLER B scenario.

    However given that this event is still 6 and 7 days away is probably best to use the ENSEMBLES . The 0z European model ensembles continue to be quite bullish with the system developing a Low over the Southeast U.S. Coast and rapidly developing as it moves northeast paralleling the U.S. Coast and passing just to the east of Cape Cod Massachusetts. The 6z GFS also a step towards the bigger solution shown by the European model as the 6z GFS shows a much bigger much more organized area of low pressure that’ s bit further north than the previous runs.

  17. I await the 12Z runs to see what, IF anything has changed since the 0z/06Z runs.

    It still smells like an OTS scenario to me. However, I am open to changes.

    We shall see.

    3. I’m siding with DT – pay closer attention to the ENSEMBLES this far out.

      All possibilities are on the table.

      ….I’m cold. 🙁

          1. It does look to get quite active the next couple of weeks. Maybe it is our transition to spring time warmth :). I can hope can’t I?

          2. OS, look at my comment above. JMA did not say OTS. Maybe he is thinking that but did not say it, retrac did.

  18. Charlie, who said drought? Tom was just saying that we are much below for the month so far. This after having 3 months that were above is quite a swing if it continues.

  19. Take the operational runs with a salt block. The shift in the position and strength of the storm on the last few ECMWF runs should be more than enough evidence.

  21. Looking at the models is what most of us do. But to me the models this winter could not possibly given any credibility. The models have enough trouble figuring out today’s date.

  22. It wouldn’t suprise me if some locales hit 60 degrees tommorrow, of course depending on how much sun can come out 🙂

  25. 12z Euro is a mega-bomb again. Wow, this model sure is entertaining to watch, I’ll give it that!

  26. Thanks, TK!

    Many people I see when out shopping and what I hear in the media (not all the media, just some) are all excited that spring starts tomorrow and they say that the cold and snow is done with. I have to be like a weather forecaster and remind them that 1) nxt. wk. will be very cold again; 2) we could get a storm nxt. wk., possibly snow and 3) that we can get snow in April. I can’t say anything to the media but I wish they would be a little more realistic and say that Spring will come eventually but there’s still plenty of winter left. I just feel bad about the flora and fauna – I hope they are all right with this long winter. Just on my soapbox! 🙂

    Vicki – hope your family is feeling better!

    1. HI Rainshine and thank you 🙂 We are improving.

      I loved reading your comment re spring/winter. It’s just plain common sense. It makes me smile that people think the spring equinox brings along a magical change and that winter doesn’t ever cross that line. I think you are so right about being realistic. It seems that the flowers, etc. are appearing later this year. They had moved earlier every year this century. Even last year they were early (blooming March 13). It is only a guess but I wonder if it took them a year to “figure out” they need to move back to a later (more typical) date.

  27. 12z Euro back to the snow hurricane solution, bombing the low out to the 950’s mb range east of the Gulf of Maine. It tracks outside the benchmark so a grazer for us, but Cape and the Islands still get smacked pretty good.

    1. Guyt tells me it’ll track closer which might also mean warmer, but as I said in previous posts the models have been far from accurate and the one thing we know is that the track will change.

  28. Hopefully this watcher will happen. The cold air will be in place for any POTENTIAL storm. Now can we get to track in a position to give us a big snowfall.

  29. Lurker question… if next week’s storm happens at all, what’s the likelihood of it messing with a flight out of Logan at 10:00am on 3/27? Right now, the models seem to think it’ll be out of here by then, but I don’t know what the “margin of error” is when it comes to timing estimates 7 days out.

    Frankly, I don’t want the snow at all — sorry, OS 🙂 — but if we’re going to get it at all, the earlier the better…

    1. Don’t even think about it yet. Check forecasts 48-72 hours ahead of time for an accurate forecast before you go changing plans.

      1. Honestly, I couldn’t change the plans if I wanted to. Just hoping it won’t cause any problems when the time comes. 🙂

        1. We should just have a get together at Logan. Hadi is traveling Friday and I will be there Friday too!

        2. If anything, it would pass earlier rather than later. In fact, the low is up to about Cape Cod’s latitude at 8AM Wed on the latest Euro run which OS posted below.

          Of course, if the storm ever got as strong as the Euro is depicting and it were a direct hit, I’m sure there would be lasting implications into Thurs AM 🙂

  31. From DT:

    ***ALERT *** 12z WED European Model & 12z Canadian ensemble turn very “BULLISH ” on Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM …. MARCH 25 26

    There has been a significant change or r increase with respect to the potential for a significant East Coast winter storm next week on March 25-26. In general most of the model guidance has turned Snowier and is showing much more of southern stream or Gulf of Mexico Low (MILLER A) . The implications of this are significant because IF…. IF… this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low …the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ….most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia… …much of central and eastern Maryland & Delaware ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.

    There are 3 more paragraphs to his post that I did not include but you get the picture…

    1. I like this part: ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.

      Again, I’m NOT saying it won’t happen. Just saying I’ve bitten before and
      been brutally disappointed. I remain skeptical. I’ll believe it when I see it.

      There sure is “potential”, but that doesn’t mean a thing until it materializes.

  32. Well, here is a change. Not that it is a strong system, but the 12Z FIM is now
    picking up on some sort of event:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014031912/236/3hap_sfc_f174.png

    0Z run had NOTHING. The plot thickens.

    Looks like the pot is stirring up all of TK’s ingredients. We just don’t know how it’s going to come out yet. A full scale Bomborama, an Out to Sea swan song, an inside runner or what? The Euro has been back and forth all over the map. 😆

    Onto the 0Z runs for the next comical adventure.

  35. OS… to answer your question of earlier. My feelings on the storm remain unchanged. I think we need to pay very close attention.

  36. However much Charlie (and others) would like it to be spring, it does not look like spring, feel like spring, or act like spring. Tomorrow will be the exception to the rule, the New England teaser that lulls everyone into thinking spring is here or around the corner. Well, it sure is not. Today was advertised to be a pleasant day. 40’ish is not pleasant in my book. I felt no spring vibes whatsoever. And, toward the end of the afternoon it had that gray, raw feel to it that only made things worse. I think we’ll see more gray and raw as the weekend approaches. Then, look for an Arctic plunge that will make it feel like it’s mid January for a couple of days, followed by a a possible snowstorm as midweek approaches.

  37. The cold coming early next week looks certain. What is not is whether this storm is going to impact us. I hope we could break the trend and get a good size winter storm in spring.

    1. Sooner or later something’s gotta give Jimmy. The CPC continues to support lots of cold and snow through at least early April. 🙂

  38. I will scream from here to tomorrow if starting next Friday Florida weather is not what it should be 🙂

    2. What kind of temps are you hoping for Hadi ?

      Have to figure if there is an important east coast storm, there has to be at least a quick push of cooler air. But, past the vernal equinox, the sun angle is 60+ degrees, I cant imagine it being less than 65F or 70F by day.

  41. Moderate snow in both Plymouth, NH and Fryeburg, ME. 1/2 mile visibilities.

    They’ll be snow in the shaded woods up in north-central NH and ME for a while to come.

  42. The EYE ON WEATHER (WBZ) SPRING PREVIEW Saturday March 29 @ 7:00 p.m.

    I don’t understand why WBZ schedules these weather “preview” specials when college sports are in postseason and/or in late season. The Winter Preview was wiped out by late season college football. It will be MARCH MADNESS this time around. 😉

      1. I’d be interested in that preview, but good luck to the mets on this preview. I’d think its a nightmare to try to predict spring in Boston.

  43. Pretty common knowledge that Beijing has issues with smog.

    In the stable hemispheric weather pattern we’ve been seeing, western Europe has been sitting under a ridge of high pressure.

    Paris, France …. directly under that ridge has been having smog problems lately. It got severe enough that, in order to reduce pollutants, people were only allowed to use their cars every other day. Cars with odd numbered plates could be used one day, only even numbered plates the next.

    For what its worth, here’s the last 2 days of CO2 ppm at the top of Mauna Loa in Hawaii.

    401.09 and 401.18 ppm.

      1. Agreed. 06z is almost identical to 0z. Gfs may be starting to lock in. Euro is all over the place, snow huricane one run, weak shortwave ots the next. Not sure about the canadian

  47. Morning check in.

    !st off…NAM has gone Nuts for 3/23???? DOn’t know what’s up with that. Nothing
    from GFS

    Onto the main event.

    0Z Euro more OTS than yesterday’s 12Z.

    http://i.imgur.com/PLXCe2E.png?1

    06Z GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014032006&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=153

    0C CMC

    Surface

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=168

    Meteogram

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    That’s about 31 mm qpf as SNOW or about 1.22 inches.

    SO the models are struggling once again, however, it sure looks like Something
    WILL happen, it’s just a question if off shore or not.

    Euro is back and forth like it was with the recent system that ended up tracking
    right over Boston. SO who knows at this point.

    1. Euro with that previous system always showed some type of hit, waffling back and forth between a benchmark and inside runner, this time the euro is either a massive snowicane or weak short wave ots off of florida

      1. It showed a massive hit, then totally OTS and then a hit then inside and the a hit and finally settled on passing over us.

        I’m hoping the same waffling delivers a direct hit. 👿

    2. FIM Zeus (Regular FIM not available for 0Z)

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_zeus/2014032000/130/3hap_sfc_f156.png

      0Z NavGEM

      http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_thk_156.gif

      0Z UKMET as far out as it goes

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=144

      06Z DGEX

      http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f156.gif

      This goes totally straight East OTS from there.

  48. A couple of different looks at Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=144

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=168

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032000&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144

    http://wxcaster4.com/ecmwf/NORTH-AMERICA_ECMWF_1000-500_SLPTHK_144HR.gif

    1. Did I present enough model displays this morning?

      😆

      Up to 38.5 here already. No ice. No Snow. Just some rain.

  51. NWS out of Upton, NY
    THE ECMWF
    HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVER AMPLIFY SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS
    WINTER. HOWEVER…THE LATEST GFS…SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
    AND THE CMC DO SHOW A COMPARABLE STRENGTH WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
    TIMING OF ENERGY PHASING AND TRACK.

  53. From Taunton NWS:

    MODELS SHOW A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH AMPLIFIESTHE TROF ALONG THE EAST
    COAST WITH ALL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLESINDICATING A SIGNIFICANT OCEAN STORM FOR TUE/WED. THE UNCERTAINTYLIES IN THE TRACK
    WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACT IT HAS ON NEW
    ENG. DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CLOSER TO
    THE BENCHMARK.     THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED VARIATIONS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

  54. On Friday and Saturday, the pollen count will JUMP from 3.0 to well over 8.0 due to Juniper and Poplar.

    On another note, some debris sighted by satellite in the Indian Ocean. The images are a few days old so it is not clear where the debris is now.

    1. Saw that. The Southern flight path makes no sense to me.

      We may never know what was really going on.

      Perhaps if the plane is ever located and the black box recovered, we might
      know something??? Hope so.

      1. Unless the plan was to head for the uninhabited area of Australia. OS I’m with you – I hope the black box shows what happened. I mostly hope they find this plane so the families can have some sort of closure. Horrendous ordeal for them.

  55. Enough about The Main event. Please take a look at the 06Z NAM for Sunday, 3/23:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=084

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=TT850&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=QQ500&hh=084&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=UV250&hh=084&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    IF and that is a MIGHTY IF, that verifies, that system would move up here
    and provide at least a Moderate Snow Event.

    NOTHING is being mentioned about this/

    Any thoughts????

    1. Remember what happened last weekend at 84 hours, Tuesday’s system was moving straight north and then in later runs ots.

      1. Yes, I know, it’s the NAM at 84 hours. But still, I wonder.
        We’ll see what the 12Z run shows.

    2. Yesterday, Bernie Rayno’s video discussed that the Sat/Sun timeframe bear watching – felt system could come further south than models were showing.

  56. Maine has gotten a lot more snow. There will be places up there with an over 50 inch snow-pack. I sometimes drive up to Quebec City in late March. Seeing the incredible snow-pack near Jackman, Maine, is worth the drive.

    1. I never thought I would see a post with the words “Lock” “GFS” and “Next Week” in the same sentence. LOL.

      I am betting we will have a better handle on the storm by the end of the weekend. My son has surgery on Wednesday so I am hopping for a later Wednesday Start or a miss completely.

      1. lol, trust me, me either. I just think the GFS, once it has even an inkling of a clue about something, its got it and doesnt comepletely lose it. Save for a few details to be ironed out, but it has a storm on the east coast now, close enough for most south of boston to feel its affects. The euro has been too schizo for my liking on this and many east coast storm threats recently to really give it any weight outside of 48 hrs

      3. Will keep you in my thoughts, Coastal – Hoping its not too serious and that everything goes well, including the weather!

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