The Week Ahead

490 Comments

2:57AM

Once upon a time, indications of a significant storm appeared on computer generated forecast maps as they chugged through programs created in an attempt to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere over a period of time, given a set of initial conditions at the surface and multiple levels above the ground. Though these prognostications are never perfect, they are often accurate enough to provide adequate notice of impending significant occurrences. Such is the case with the upcoming storm threat, which now looms so much closer than when it appeared as a distant star in the night sky of meteorology. The storm threat has become an asteroid hurtling toward our tiny little place in the universe. Will it crash into us with major impact, will it sideswipe the region with a scary close pass, or will it pass harmlessly as just an awesome sight just too far away to do anything?

This is what we do know: High pressure will build across the region today after having delivered yet another late season blast of Arctic air – a bright and cold start to the week. Two disturbances, a weak one drifting eastward from the Great Lakes region, and a slightly stronger one off the US Southeast Coast, will merge and intensify into a monster ocean storm off the US Mid Atlantic and Northeast Coast Tuesday through early Wednesday, tracking northeast to north. Eventually this storm will plow into the eastern Maritime Provinces of Canada, but before it does that, it will have some impact on southeastern New England.

The uncertainty arises out of the fact that a subtle shift in storm track one way or another will have significant influence on the details of the envelope of snowfall, the intensity of it in a given location, and of course, the snowfall amounts. A first call on snow amounts will appear below, based on where I expect the most likely path to be, which is a little east of where the tracks of heaviest snow-producers are. Strong northerly winds around the western side of the intensifying low may result in some damage with the most vulnerable place being Cape Cod in the early to middle hours of Wednesday morning. It is very important to remember that a slight shift of storm track will significant impact the snow amounts (eastward shift, amounts go down / westward shift, amounts go up). Coastal flooding especially near high tide time Wednesday morning is most likely along north-facing shores especially Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket.

The reasoning for going with a track a little further east is due to a lack of blocking in the steering currents that would help slow the storm down and push it a little closer to the coast. But the explosive development and size of the storm will still allow for a significant impact especially near the coast and especially far southeastern MA and Cape Cod.

Once this progressive system is by the region, rapid improvement in the weather will be seen by Thursday as high pressure builds in. By Friday, this high will already be moving offshore with a milder southerly wind developing. An approaching cold front from the west may send showers into the region as early as Friday afternoon. There are some questions regarding the speed and timing of this front and the potential for an extra wave of low pressure that may develop and move along it, keeping unsettled weather going into Saturday, which will likely turn out cooler than some current extended forecasts indicate. By Sunday, a chilly high pressure area will be in place, though it does not look as cold as it will be to start this week out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Early temperatures around 10 recovering to highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of light snow especially south and west of Boston by late in the day. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow likely. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Early snowfall estimate: 1-3 inches east central MA, RI, and interior southern NH, 3-6 inches coastal NH, and most of east coastal MA, through southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.

490 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  4. 06Z CMC, 958mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=054

    06Z NAM, 969 mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=054&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    06Z GFS (much slower), 973 mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=078

    UKMET, 961 mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=060

  7. How does one make a forecast???????????????????????????????????

    Nova Scotia is the place to be if you want a HUGE snow storm, NOT HERE!

    The wettest models are the Euro and the UKMET.

    Everything else, FUGGETABOUTIT!!!

    That kind of makes them OUTLIERS, no?

    NWS numbers look reasonable to me and they “may” be high.

    I just don’t seeing it accumulating that much around these parts.

    Just NOT in the cards. We’ll see IF there is a change with the 12Z runs.
    I DOUBT it. We shall see.

    Anyone have access to the latest RPM run?

  8. SREF waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out there!!!!!!!!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_057_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=03&param=mslp&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+03+UTC&ps=area&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_066_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=03&param=precip_p24&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+03+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

  9. What do you think will fall. Have you heard the tv mets today, tks forcast just a little while ago.

    1. John, u asking me?

      I’m not convinced Boston sees 2 inches. Just such a difficult forecast.

          1. Perhaps. We shall see.

            I’m really torn.
            Euro would give Boston about 7, but I not
            trusting that.

            I’m going with Canadian, GFS, NAM combination, which would give Boston perhaps an inch or 2.

            😆

            1. Just watching 5 she has boston in the 2-4 range as you posted that’s in the medium line or just about on it.

  11. From NWS, Upton:

    THERE REMAIN TWO CAMPS IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST BY TUESDAY THE MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN…WHICH BRINGS THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE BENCH MARK…AND SPELLS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR EASTERN ZONES. THE SECOND CAMP IS EVERYTHING ELSE…WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE TRI-STATE WILL RECEIVE AT MOST A GLANCING BLOW.

    1. From NWS Taunton:

      NOTE THAT THE ECMWF OP RUN WOULD SUGGEST THE NEED OF
      A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BOSTON AND PERHAPS EVEN WEST TO WORCESTER AND ALL OF RI…BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

  13. Even if u blend all other models except the euro, u still dont come up with the NWS snowmap. They must be weighing the euro in there or else how do u even come up with anything over 3″ for anyone.

  15. Sarah W. on FOX 25 is calling for 6-12″ for Boston. She obviously is going with the Euro…the clear outlier.

  16. More questions than answers from the NWS out of Upton, NY.
    A slight shift west and its a whole new ball game. Going to be watching this tomorrow night into Wednesday to see how this develops and which way it wobbles.

  17. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    A SHIFT IN
    TRACK TO THE N/W OF THE ECMWF…TO AT OR NEAR THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK…COULD BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE SE
    1/3 OF THE CWA…AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER. THE
    PROBABILITY OF THE LATTER IS LOW…LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

  18. Here are the projected snow totals for Boston:

    Sarah W. (Ch. 25) = 6-12″
    TK = 3-6″
    Cindy (Ch. 5) = 2-4″
    NWS = 2-4″
    Todd (Ch. 4) = 1-3″
    JR (Ch. 7) = none

    1. That makes me chuckle. Fox is 100% with the euro (but even the euro isnt showing 12″ for anywhere) and JR on 7 is going mostly with the GFS. All others are a blend of guidance.

  19. Unless there is a surprise which could happen with this storm system I think 3 inches tops for Boston. Going to have to watch this closely to see if a slight shift east or west happens than what the models are currently showing.

  20. thinking 8-12 outer cape and islands.
    4-8 cape cod canal area southeast coastal areas.
    2-4 southeast mass into parts of southern RI up into coastal northeast mass.
    0-2 inside 495
    Boston will come in the middle of 0-2 and 2-4

  22. How can we have on air mets varying so much.

    One says ZERO
    and one says 6-12 inches????

    That’s INSANE. Not sure I have ever seen that one.

    1. It’s actually quite laughable. The way I see it, look at the 2 extremes and then the quality of their content. IMO the 2 extremes are historically among the least reliable in our market. I haven’t heard much from matt noyes on this, i wonder where he stands.

    1. Exactly. Its not just about the usual 1 or 2 players being talked about coming together either. This time around, its a whole team of players. One player out of position and the whole thing changes. Its near impossible for models to handle any out of position players. Does the northern stream energy come in quicker or slower? Where does the low form? Where and when does phasing take place? One low or 2? Which low is the primary? What will the upper levels look like? How much pacific energy upstream? So many questions and i dont care how complex the modeling algorithms are, there will be a surprise or 2 with this and we might not know it until things begin to form.

      1. Very true, however, I have been watching the upper air charts
        from run to run.

        Although the 500 mb flow sharpens up and amplifies beautifully, (Even closes off on some runs) the flow above does NOT amplify enough, thus the whole 500 mb pattern gets shunted off to the ENE and thus the storm tracks to the East.

        So perhaps the surprise in all of this will be the 200MB flow
        amplifying more???????? Wouldn’t that be something????

    2. Agree, however, ARE we going to see any shift at all, subtle or not????

      This will be a MONSTER storm. A MEGA MONSTER.

      50-75 mile jog to the West changes EVERYTHING!!!

      Even the NAM is dangerously close. NAM seems to have Expanded the
      precip on the NW flank of storm.

      I sure would NOT want to be a MET forecasting this one.

      1. OS you should be a TV met…you have all the scary words nailed that scare the sheeple. 🙂

  25. Here’s a hypothetical, what if the upper level low doesn’t close off? We all know the upper level low will be far off to the east and once it closes off it will pull the surface low eastward with it. But if the upper level low doesn’t close off, wouldn’t that in theory allow the surface low to be further west? Or am i totally in left field

    1. I think you are just left out.

      IF 500mb closes, it will pull surface low to the West.
      IF NOT, surface low will be more to the East.

      EVEN if it closes off, it is likely to already be too far East to do
      any good (or bad depending on perspective).

      When previous runs were clocking us, 500MB was closed off very close to us.
      Current runs (if it is closed) is pretty far East of us. Some runs don’t even
      close it off.

    1. I wish i could but i haven’t actually seen one, just heard about it. I saw somewhere that wundermaps model page now have access to the RPM maps, but i looked and it doesnt. I think its still just a private site not available to the public

      1. I originally thought that the map you posted from Joe Bastardi
        was the RPM when it in fact was the RGEM, which is the
        Canadian.

        C’mon let’s find some RPM maps….

        1. I do know TWC takes the RPM snowmaps verbatim in their forecasts. Some local TV mets do as well

  31. Sitting in the jury room at Plymouth court. Hope I don’t get picked as they will make me turn my phone off. I will have blog withdrawal!

    Thanks TK for providing this blog to keep me busy while I wait and wait and wait some more.

    2. Good luck, Sue. It used to be that you would not get chosen if you had ties to police but now that doesn’t seem to matter.

    3. I was supposed to have jury duty in Lowell next Monday March 31, which I postponed from my original date of May 21 last year, but it was canceled. 3rd time called to Lowell and each time it was canceled.

    1. Which run?

      NAM will be fully out by about 11
      GFS about Noon
      Canadian full by 1:30, but might get some info by 12:30
      Euro around 2:30 (some a bit eariler)
      UKMET around 1:30
      FIM about 4-5 PM (that is always delayed)

      1. I got the 12Z NAM coming out already on instantweathermaps, will probably be in range of the storm by just after 10am

  34. Tk, you tease us.

    Could you possibly elaborate about what you think “might” happen to
    have that “curve ball” as the next pitch selection???????????????????

    Northern Stream energy to pull Southern stream N&W to bring eventual
    Bomb closer to the coast?

    500mb intereaction to keep snow going well West of Center.

    Some magic fairy dust being injected into the system???

    C’mon spill the beans. 😈 👿 😆

  35. I am not sure this push of this storm to the south and the east will hold up as much as models indicate now. No, not wishful thinking on my part … I am tired of winter. I do expect a track change. Further east would be OK with me, but I do not think that’s what we will see. This may swing back west to some degree and it could happen late in the game.

  37. NCEP going with 0z UKMET/ECMWF blend for their forecast but with below average confidence.

    I read on American Weather that the RPM model has 2 feet for Cape Cod and north to Marshfield. 1 foot line extends further NW into Boston metro. I have not been able to locate a map though either.

    1. How reliable is this RPM model Mark?

      I suppose since “technically” the storm hasn’t even come close to forming yet, any solution is still on the table.

  38. Saw on TWC they did a comparison of GFS and EURO. GFS shows 3-5 inches for most of SNE. 1-3 for my area. Yet the EURO shows a widespread 8-12 inches. When they blended the two they came up with 3-5 for most of SNE. 5-8 south shore and 8-12 Cape and Islands.

      1. Look HOW FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR
        out to sea it is at 30 hours. How’a it going to get up here??????

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014032412&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=030

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014032412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=030

        We need some big action from that Northern development
        showing up. We need it to SUCK the Southern System up
        to the North and West. Can it be done? Stay tuned. 😆

  43. 12z 36hr
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    6z 42 hr
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

  44. They are reporting that 370 went down in the Indian Ocean – not near any land. Tragic. And a horrific several weeks for the loved ones.

      1. It isn’t clear that they have the debris. They used some new (radar) technique the British have that determined the plane took the southern route. My heart is so heavy. Many were Chinese and for any parent, because of China’s one child family rule, they would lose their only child.

    2. Even if they identify that debris as the flight this investigation will be far from over and there are going to be a ton of questions
      that still need to be answered.

      1. Oh for sure.

        I was convinced it was on the ground somewhere on the Northern Arc. Shows what I know.

      1. What station will be first to initiate “fujiwara” as the new weather catch phrase word?

            2. The energy in the western US is just pushing everything along in the atmosphere flattening out the flow.

  47. Lol here I am thinking the blog is silent bc the storm is wide right by a big distance, and I get on the wonderful blog, and still if you didn’t follow the weather, you would be thinking that a possible storm is coming, when in truth this storm is going far away and we will be lucky to get an inch of snow, it wouldn’t suprise me if not one flake falls north of the pike or west of Boston, been working outside since 6am, it’s spring folks, get over it, move along, spring is beautiful in New England, like every season is, good day 🙂 60’s r very possible in the southern third of the woodshill weather forecast area 😉

        1. I wrote an entire response, but I just don’t think you’re worth it. You don’t even know who I am – but I know who you are, Charlie Parker! (Still love them name, by the way.)

        2. Charlie – will you please stop telling everyone here how they feel. I’d try to explain it, but you won’t understand. Perhaps it is best to simply state what you feel and stop trying to analyze everyone else. You have no clue and are so far off track that you might as well be going OTS as well.

  49. I am confused because I don’t know what you all are seeing with this curveball. I am guessing this implies more snow?

  50. There’s nothing spring-like about today. Deep freeze today out there. That sun could be directly overhead and it wouldn’t do squat.

    1. Completely disagree, that sun ace master does a lot this time of yr, sure it’s cold, but the sun is super warm 🙂

      1. Sure, if ur in a car the sun is warm, or outside working up a sweat, but just out walking from place to place, the cold air today outweighs a higher angle sun. You gotta admit its very cold for late March.

  52. Ch 7 going with coating to an inch tops boston. 2-4 south shore and even less west and north of boston also saying the wind is what we can count on. I don’t know everybody is saying something different.

        1. No, Our reference to a curve was that something
          would happen on the run to bring more snow.
          Didn’t happen, therefore no curve.

  55. NWS has 1-2 inches for my area. I think that maybe a bit much unless a surprise happens and some how this thing tracks a little further west.
    This maybe the last time the blog lights up for a while until we have a thunderstorm day.

    1. A little better, imho

      This is along the lines of the NWS.

      We’ll see if it gets changed this afternoon after the rest of the 12Z
      guidance is in.

  57. Hey Vicki – Can you post the remaining contenders in the Logan snowfall contest when you get a chance? Most including TK and myself have long since been eliminated. The majority of the totals posted were very much on the low end IIRC.

    Logan’s snowfall is 58.6″ and will likely not get much higher, unfortunately. 🙁

    Thanks Vicki, in advance! 🙂

        1. You said 58.6 for boston right. I meant they should go over that 60 inch mark since we are looking at at least a couple of inches low end.

          1. I was responding to Jimmy’s post regarding the 5 inch difference compared to last winter’s total.

            Logan so far = 58.6″
            Logan last winter = 63.4″

            difference = -4.8″

  58. NAM drops 17.5″ of snow in 3 hours on Nova Scotia and 40″+ total, along with 80 mph winds. 🙂

    http://www.instantwe…ASNOWI&hour=054

    Looking into flights to Halifax if anyone wants to join me….

  59. 12Z GFS has western development ever further west then NAM, inland into NC and virginia. The 2 developing lows are very far apart so far through 36 hrs

  60. Hi Philip – the totals are on the gardening page – second post from the end I believe. Please let me know if this isn’t what you were looking for 🙂

    1. Thanks Vicki – If Logan doesn’t get anymore snow, Shotime is the winner (if I understand the rules correctly, or course). 🙂

  62. 12z GFS certainly further west and buying into this “two low” setup but the eastern low takes most of the energy with it.

  64. 12Z GFS is in, no big curve ball on this run. It does indicate when the NAM was doing though with development right along the NC coast with another low but ultimately the eastern low takes over and sucks it in. I wonder if this is a trend though, something the models are starting to see that is different. Will this western low be the one to take over? Who knows. Time is running out. We await the euro.

    1. I don’t see that happening. In fact, I’m willing to say that the EURO is
      farther to the EAST as well with snow totals DOWN. Coming up next after this commercial break…….

      1. So could this storm maybe tie last years record for snow. I think Philip said were 4.8 short of that now. Also plenty more runs to go.

      2. 12Z CMC-RDPS / Explorer (This is the one only run out to
        48 or 54 hours, not the global run which will be out in about an hour)

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PT&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048

        Closed 500mb circulation TOO FAR off shore:

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=QQ500&hh=048&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  66. At this point, a blend of the GFS, NAM, and CMC yield very little snow, even for the cape. Looks like ch 7’s map might verify… “hangs head in shame” (that was for u Vicki 🙂 )

    2. hahahahaha – but in reality – none of them hang their head in shame. They are all great and they all love weather and I sure wouldn’t want to stand in their shoes!! It’s obvious to even me that this winter has been a disaster for anyone wanting to forecast a storm.

        1. With every storm I’ve felt as if my head were spinning. It isn’t even day to day that each scenario has changed. It seems to have been run to run and then model to model on top of that.

    3. And I almost was going to bet u am when u told john to put the plow on, u will be plowing. I should have 🙂

    1. Does anyone expect the Euro to hold onto the higher snow totals?

      hey, Bastardi is quiet now, isn’t he???

  68. Time to put my snow shovel away I guess…a bit of a shame we are missing an epic storm. 🙁

    Oh well, least Logan was above normal this winter = 58.6″. 🙂

    1. Yes, that it is. What a colossal waste.

      As the Red Sox always used to say: “There’s always next year”

    2. For some reason, this winter did not feel above normal to me in terms of snowfall. I think bc a good chunk of that 58.6″ was aided by a couple very localized storms which produced much more in and around Logan than most of the area. I’ll have to calculate my exact total at home in Sharon but i have a feeling an early estimate of around 40″ is about right. Most snow i got from one storm was 10″ so maybe that has something to do with it. No really good widespread foot+ storms

      1. but boston still gets a couple of inches, if you like the snow i would be excited because im betting thats it till december.

    2. “WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDE RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT!!!!!”

      Oh wait…..maybe you didn’t mean to literally say that 😉

  71. I think we can stick a large fork in this one. I predict no snow at all in Boston and points west, with only a few flakes to our south, and some accumulating snow over the Cape and Islands.

    It’s been an interesting, relatively cold winter. Despite a series of storms, no real blizzards. BB had predicted this kind of a winter back in November.

    I’ll be back in the fall.

  72. Although OS, big joe 10 min ago…

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m
    Most models to assume polar frontal wave will be boss.I think arctic wave off va cape will be.would mean track 100 nw pic.twitter.com/shxUIY0OuM

    3. What? He means the Southern Stream storm take over and system
      tracks 100 Nautical Miles NW of where it is predicted now.

      Right? And I’m Santa Claus!!! 😆 😆 😆

  75. JR on 7 just said, “The good news is this is the LAST arctic airmass of the season.” It might be, but that is a pretty bold statement, isn’t it? I always chuckle when meteorologists say stuff like that!

    1. Not sure. April 1st is a week from tomorrow and it looks to start warming up after Wednesday. After Wednesday I also think the worst is behind us.

      1. I agree that the odds are in his favor, but it was just the way he said it as if it were a fact that made me pause.

            1. As my wife and I call it, the TABLOID NEWS STATION…

              The equivalent of the National Enquirer!!!

              1. I post a lot on the 4 blogs. BZ repeatedly half tells the story in its online reports just to generate discussion. I keep thinking I’ll switch to 5 and see if they are better. I think they are all about ratings one way or the other. 7 is just more open about it.

                1. Now that i will agree with u on Vicki. Their online news stories lack so much and can often be misleading

                2. See how well we can agree. Mac and I go nuts when 7 plays that “First on 7” music or noise or whatever it is.

            2. It’s 7s philosophy. Everything has to be first. And for some reason management doesn’t think the viewer sees through it. I switched from 4 a while ago because they are incredibly biased.

              1. Switch to ch5 news. It really is a good news station to watch. I’ve watched ch5 news my entire life. It also leads in all the pols over other stations and tests why there the most watched news station. This is all backed again by pols of the viewers.

  78. It’s very astonishing to me that we had this very cold snowy winter, and I completely agree with that, but since feb 24th I’ve received 1 inch of snow, and it’s gonna be April next week 🙂

  81. There were minor initialization errors in the GFS/NAM according to the WPC

    NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO
    SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.

  82. WPC model discussion

    PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
    OTHER APPLICABLE SOLUTIONS: 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z UKMET

    THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AND ARE INCREASINGLY
    AGREEABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. BY 26/00Z ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
    SHOULD EXIST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TWO EMBEDDED CIRCULATION
    CENTERS. THE LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BE IN THE PRIMARY
    BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON STORM
    TRACK THROUGH TIME. SOME SOLUTIONS…HOWEVER…SUCH AS THE 00Z
    ECMWF AND UKMET EMPHASIZE THE INTENSITY OF THE SECOND LOW…CLOSER
    TO THE COAST…AND TUCKED UNDER THE GREATER MID LEVEL HEIGHT
    FALLS. THE EFFECT OF THIS IS TO PULL THE OVERALL STORM TRACK
    CLOSER TO THE COAST ONCE A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE FORMS BY
    WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO DO THIS OVER
    THE WINTER WITH VARIED RESULTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS LESS
    EMPHASIS ON THE SECONDARY LOW…WITH A RESULTANT TRACK ABOUT 75 NM
    EAST OF THE ECMWF. OVERALL…THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
    ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVE US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
    BLENDING THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ARRIVE AT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.
    BUT CONVERGENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS DOES BRING THEM INTO PLAY.

    THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
    MEAN FOR INTENSITY AND TRACK. IT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE THERMAL
    FIELDS…ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS
    ALSO TRACKS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN…BUT SOMEWHAT WEAK
    AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB. THERE ARE NUMEROUS 06Z GEFS MEMBERS
    THAT SUPPORT THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS…DIPPING BELOW 970 MB BY 26/12Z.

  84. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 5m

    Have to wait & see! RT @bceltics857: @NWSBoston Canadian shifted west, you think euro will follow??

    2. WOW! Is that the curve ball? 1st of many? YIKES

      Euro, Euro come out come out wherever you are!

  87. I think current models are under forecasting the strength of the northern stream energy. Can clearly see this on current radar. It looks healthy coming through the plains. Will this act to try and make the westernmost low the primary?

    1. good gracious, how low is the pressure? I see the 972 isobar, with many 2 mb isobars lower to the center. Hi 950s, low 960s ???

  91. It’s a WHALE of a storm … And mostly for the whales … Until it impacts our northern friends the New Scotsmen and Newfies.

    1. It appeared closer to the coast as it was developing but takes a good right turn just as it bombs out

  94. Looks like 3″ tops in boston. More to the south and east, up to 8″ outer cape. Not much of a change, maybe even a tad less precip than 0Z

    1. Much LESS snow than 0Z run. 0Z run had about 7 inches for Boston.

      This reflects the EASTWARD trend.

      Where is this Western shift???????????????????????????
      Where is the Curve ball?????????????????????
      Where is the Storm? OH, it’s on the Damn FISH!

      😆

    1. He expected some sort of surprise with the 12Z runs and all we got was
      MORE of the same. 😆

      1. The only surprise i saw, subtle as it was, was with the GFS and NAM with that increase in development of precip far to the north and west of the main low. Significant enough to change the eventual outcome? Doesn’t appear like it, at least not yet. Still one more day to go but I think we can safely stick a fork in this one.

    1. Thanks Hadi. For sure. A shift of that magnitude would not be that difficult to accomplish. We’ve seen it before.

  101. I noticed Channel 7 extended their coating-1 inch line further north. It was just at or below Boston this morning.

  103. They have that line going all the way to just south of Plymouth…then it’s 2-4 and 4-6 on the outer cape (inches, not feet).

    2. Agree. The EURO has been off all season…not sure the hype around waiting to see what it say. Can it be right? Sure. However if trend is your friend, it’s not the model to watch.

        1. I don’t make calls myself…if you are looking for my gut, it’s little to nothing in Boston. This is based 99% on wish and 1% on science 🙂

        3. I’m no expert john but I would say 1-3 inches IMO, we shall see, I lean towards the lower side 🙂

  105. About 2:45 PM from Joe Bastardi:

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 30m
    My idea is system that you will see near Hatteras around noon tomorrow will be stronger as it moves northeast, pull in other.Not vice versa

    1. This in theory could happen, BUT, and a big but, the main southern low will be following the baroclinic zone which will be setting up way to the east, thus it is being depicted as the stronger low and pulling the northern energy east. Only way i see what big joe is saying is if the baroclinic zone sets up further west.

    1. Yes, i noted that earlier today too. Its no wimpy system. Its energy and associated arctic origins mean business. Is it enough to pull in southern low? Not sure.

  107. If what Bastardi says happens I would be very very surprised.
    I think this could be our last winter threat we will be tracking this season. The one thing looking back is we never had a big blockbuster Noreaster. Oh well hopefully that will be different next winter. Another thing I enjoyed reading everyone’s posts when tracking these storms and I look forward to reading your posts when were tracking thunderstorms. I know I can’t wait to start tracking them.

      1. And I thank you ds even though we may not see I to I I still read and enjoy your input, good day 🙂

  108. I’m going with nothing north and west of 495 and north of the mass pike, inside 495 to 128 coating to 1 inch, Boston and inside 128 about an inch, Boston south to Providence along the i95 corridor 1-3 inches, Taunton south and east 2-4 inches, Plymouth to cape cod canal 3-5, the rest of the cape 4-8 🙂

  110. It will sure be interesting watching satellite loops and radar images and pressure drops tomorrow

  111. Is Big Joe the only met out there who still thinks this will end up 100 or so miles west of current guidance? He backs up his thinking but i dont know how sound his thinking is. Any other mets think this? Anyone? Anyone? TK? 🙂

  112. I’ll tell ya one thing, i know its the 18Z NAM but its so far west near NC its actually throwing significant precip onshore near Cape Hatteras.

  113. It almost looks like its that low that takes over too! Convection to the east is almost completely separated from the low off hatteras

  114. Hmmm

    Did the CURVE come a bit late and didn’t show until the 18Z run????????????

    GEEZ this looks different!!!

  115. He was mentioning more and more accumulating snow showing up along the coast of VA, MD, DE, and into southern NJ. Well, this run shows 6+” so far down there

    1. Will this CLOSE OFF MUCH closer to us than previously depicted?
      Will it? Will it? Will it? 😆

    1. YA THINK?

      Yeah maybe 100-150 MILES CLOSER!!!!
      Look at the SURFACE low!!!! It’s TILTING BACK to the Coast!!!!

    1. The 18z nam to boot…which isn’t taken seriously apparently until it shows you what you want to see 🙂

  122. Question is, is this the start of something? Or is it just the 18Z NAM being the 18Z NAM? I would lean more towards a real trend just bc the NAM had been in good agreement with the GFS for a while now on this and it had been rather consistent. It doesnt appear to be one of its hiccups. We shall see! 😀

    2. ABSOLUTELY!!!

      I don’t think it all of a sudden went BONKERS!!
      (I mean it could have, but don’t think so. It depicted EXACTLY
      what Bastardi was discussing, which lends more credence to it being
      real)

    3. So no, hold up, there’s my rationale for not getting too excited and jumping on just one run. Its not just bc its what i want to see. It had been consistent with most other guidance on this until now of OTS/grazing with not much variation. We are approaching its “sweet spot” dont forgot. Maybe the NAM is due to get it right? Dying to see if more guidance follows. Dont forget too, the feature of a stronger low closer to the coast idea with more precip in that area had been hinted at by the GFS as well, just hadn’t gone all bonkers like the NAM just did.

      1. I might dismiss it as the 18Z NAM being the 18Z NAM, BUT
        when you digest Bastardi’s discussion and then watch it unfold
        with the running of the NAM, one has to at least think that
        the NAM is real this time around.

        Perhaps it’s not, but This time I tend to believe that it is.

        AND as You have pointed out, getting MORE into the NAM
        range. 😀 😀 😀

  123. I cant even concentrate in class. I am soo excited now! Ace and Os thanks for all the input. Hopefully this model sees something, perhaps a start of a trend rather than just the 18 z being the 18 z

  124. OK, it’s still off shore, BUT OH so MUCH closer than previously depicted.
    IS there anymore Westward wiggle room left for 0Z,06Z and the 12Z runs?
    Who knows.

    Will the GFS follow suit OR is the NAM now on an Island?
    What will the 0Z Euro and CMC show?

    Here is the final NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051

    That’s a SOLID 6-7 inches for Boston UP from ZERO, ZILCH, NADA 6 short
    hours ago.

    So what gives? Is Bastardi onto something OR not?

    TK???? We need your input.

    Thanks

      1. INDEED as he sits with a big smirk on his face saying NOTHING!

        TK had a reason for putting BOSTON in the 3-6 inch
        range. I may have to bow down to TK as well! 😆

    2. My bet? It’s the 18z being the 18a. But who knows! Certainly not the NAM! Maybe the GFS will want to play. Then you can call it a BIT more legit.

    1. Whenever we get over 70 degrees I’m going to strip naked and run through the Common. I swear to god.

  127. The NWS in Taunton, MA has issued a BLIZZARD WATCH for Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties in Southeastern MA.

    The NWS in Taunton, MA has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for Plymouth and Bristol Counties in MA & Newport County in RI.

  130. No change to numbers at this time.

    I’ll be back with more thoughts in a while.

    Been out all day, one more shopping trip. 🙂

      1. I haven’t read Joe’s comments yet. Can you like them and I’ll check it out when I return?

        The 18z NAM is probably closer to right, but may not be on. I want to see the GFS next. So far I don’t feel the need to change #’s. We don’t completely escape this giant, but we will avoid the wrath…

        1. I don’t know about liking… but here they are:

          Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
          My idea is system that you will see near Hatteras around noon tomorrow will be stronger as it moves northeast, pull in other.Not vice versa

          Joe Bastardi
          ‏@BigJoeBastardi
          A question of who pulls who in. Models all against my idea that nw development pulls in system to se. But snows in va on model increasing

          Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h
          Canadian has shifted west.very close to my forecast pt at 40 n/70 w ( benchmark) Trying to jump more on

          That’s enough. You get the idea. thanks

  131. 12Z CMC has about .35 inch qpf for Boston. Waay UP from 0Z run.

    So, what will it show for the 0Z runs tonight?

    1. The Regular Candian, CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km

      Is run at 18Z as well and should be out really soon.

      I Wonder, wonder, wonder IF it too will have the same change as
      the NAM?????

  132. That NAM run is painfully close!! I’d take it for sure, a nice 3-6″ event to end the season, but the real juice is just a bit offshore. I’m still favoring the further east scenario though. My thinking is 1-3″ I95 corridor to the Taunton area. 2-4″ southeast of there to the canal. 4-8″ with isolated 10″ possible outer Cape. Still would love to be wrong 🙂

  133. Yes tk the nam is the way to go, the nam shows a 12 hr snow event about 4 inches, but it’s overdone and the 00z nam will go east slightly tonight, plus like u said it’s the 18z, the nams not far off from what I was thinking, a general 1-3 inch more towards the cape 🙂

  134. I think I’m happy with what looks like is going to happen ….

    Glad the coastline misses this monster, but gets a nice late season snowfall on its far western edge.

    Then I hope the arctic air retreats for 8-9 months and spring mildness takes over.

    1. Tom I don’t think it escapes totally. You may be off on Wednesday as it looks to be going good during bus time.

      1. Thats possible. I’m just relieved with how intense a storm this will be, that it doesnt look like its near the benchmark. The wind would have been bad near the coastline. Snow we can handle, the wind impacts … No thanks.

  137. Harvey saying boston 2-5 right on the line. Is saying doesn’t even start till after midnight so only one problem commute Wednesday.

    2. i believe much sharper cut off for the snowfall. so more in line with channel 7 but
      cape and islands 6-12
      3-6 cape cod canal south coastal plymouth
      1-3 southeast mass.
      less than 1 inch inside 495
      dustings along and outside of 495
      I did the dart thing and it landed top left.ps mostly likly not.

  140. Bernie Rayno eluding to the fact he’s starting to worry about the possibility of a sooner/closer cutoff of the upper low. Points to one of the same things joe was saying, more precip starting to show up on guidance into NC, VA, and the Delmarva.

    3. Not unlike what we saw with the 18Z NAM, eh?

      Can’t wait for the 0Z runs. Could get interesting.

  142. Thanks TK! I love the way you worded that first paragraph 😀

    BOY OH BOY it was COLD today. I thought my ears would fall off! Couldn’t feel them!

    I am really looking forward to Friday’s temp 😀

  143. I have a feeling the GFS will have issues with this storm. It just doesn’t have the resolution to handle the complex coastal storm set-up which it is notorious for mishandling. Its solution is too simple and has yet to really pick up on the details. Not giving much weight to it moving forward.

  144. Really looks like most of this storm is for the fish, if somehow there was a massachusetts island 100 miles east of Chatham, that island would receive 2ft of snow

  145. 18Z Canadian, “about” the same a bit less.

    .3 inch qpf for Boston.

    We’ll watch the 0Z run

  146. I think I am ready to throw in the towel on this one based on all that I have read. We put up a good fight but I guess it just wasn’t meant to be. Bring on spring!

    1. Not yet Sue. If the consensus is the same by the 18Z runs tomorrow and the radar looks east, then i’ll throw in the towel and bury it

        1. Yes, but this is the 12Z run and it has TWICE the QPF
          as the 0Z run, so SOMETHING is up.

          Keep watching. 😀

          1. True. I think models are starting to expand the precip shield a little further west with each run. The low center might be in the same location but precip is expanding. I never bought the idea models were actually shrinking the western flank. It made no sense.

  148. I have no models to look at.
    I guess I’ll watch the Voice with the Mrs. and then of Course Black List!

  151. I think this getting needlessly complex and we are chasing too many red herrings. I am going with Pete.

  152. Something that I keep remembering is the storm the NAM showed with us getting over a foot a few years ago and all overnight. It had to do with the upper low being explosive and is the piece that gave us much more than any other model even had a clue of. There was also a pullback here of the second low as well supplying some of the moisture. Jus a memory but one that reminds me of this set up. Not to say it will happen, but the NAM might have a clue, lets see what 00Z’s show.

    1. North, i remember that storm well. NAM was discounted but it got the last laugh. I wonder if it just handles these types of set-ups better. Very complex.

  154. As I said earlier if Bastardi is right on this one I will be very surprised but stranger things have happened. Last March A storm 600 miles offshore gave areas in eastern New England widespread double digit snowfall totals which to me is one of the most bizzare things I have ever seen with a low pressure system that far offshore yet gave a big dumping of snow to eastern New England.

  156. Figures once were in spring it goes negative. If that setup being projected was there during the winter with a low tracking towards benchmark we might have had a blockbuster. Oh well.

    1. I have seen this a couple times this winter only to never get there. I hope it doesn’t pan out.

      1. The stick to the face looked so painful. I thought it would be worth it, but it doesn’t look like they are doing much with the powerplay…

  167. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m

    New fcst data suggest heavy snow farther northwest into Bos-Prov corridor w/potential for 4-7″. Need 2 review more data b4 making changes.
    Expand

  169. Btw I remember that storm that hit overnight. TK and I were on FB chatting around 11 and we woke to over a foot bc upper level drew storm closer. This storm is far from a done deal. Nam has close to 2 inches qpf for Nantucket, that’s not that far away.

  173. 00z GFS is a huge swing and a MISS!!! I don’t think the GFS has a good handle on the storm. According to the GFS even the cape would get barely an inch. This will be interesting to watch. Have a Great Night!

  174. Getting MORE interesting…..

    Nam is up with it’s QPF for Boston. Snow showing about 7 inches now.

    😀

  176. Puppy forecast… Picking up the little guy tomorrow afternoon and the breeder is located at Manchester by the Sea. Over/Under for wind gusts is pegged at 42 mph by NWS.

    The kids are asking hourly what the weather forecast is for Wednesday and have expressed how disappointed they would be if this storm jogged west and delayed pick-up.

  177. Good morning, heading off to work, no changes to the forecast IMO, really looks like we will dodge a bullet, what an intense storm that goes just to far offshore, good day everyone 🙂

  180. Anyone sticking a fork in this storm needs to beware: the only certainty will be in watching surface obs and nowcasting. No one model has a complete handle on this one. That 7in in Boston? Totally plausible.

  181. Charlie all the “warmth”on Saturday is there but it comes with rain so not sure how that’s great.

  183. It’s a model battle nam and euro vs gfs/cmc/ukie. Nws going with 00z euro as a compromise. It shows less qpf than 12 z run somewhere around 2/4 inches for Boston and more as you head south.

        1. MUCH LESS than 0Z run , which looked to be the
          most promising.

          At this point I’d rather NOTHING than 4 inches.

          I want it ALL or NOTHING!

          1. Sorry, I though we were talking about the NAM.

            Even this Euro is less than the 12Z run of yesterday.

  186. I still think a general 3-6 in the Boston area is a good forecast. Slight shift (and I’m talking 25 miles) and 6-8 would be in play. The fact remains – we will need to watch and see how the two pieces of energy are interacting. No one model is nailing this thing, let alone any of the 06z runs.

        1. Oh, yes, that’s it. Yawn Yawn

          I just woke up and realize that we are going to miss a SNOW BOMB and the NAM LIED to us again.

          So what else is new?????????????

    1. We’ll have to watch the radars to see where everything sets up.
      So far, I’m not feeling it or seeing it.

        1. Yeah, I got that feeling from you this morning. LOL.

          I’m coming over with a bottle of whiskey for your coffee. Or maybe you need a handle?

              1. I wish. We’d use it around here often. 😆

                BRING ON SPRING!!!

                Who wanted it snow anyway. 😆

  191. I would have liked to see the euro come closer like the NAM. That didnt happen. The players are on the field, warmed up, and ready to go. I dont like my chances with the NAM as it has backed off some. We’ll see what today brings but im not as encouraged as i was last night.

    1. Finally, a realist. Thank you Ace.

      I agree totally. I was really encouraged with last night’s NAM, however,
      by the time I went to bed, I had seen that the CMC was WIDE RIGHT.

      So I’m really not surprised at this point.

      We just have to accept that this one has slipped away from us, try as we will, it’s not going to happen. I think 12Z runs will be farther out still.

  192. Oldsalty how can you complain about boston getting 3-6 inches maybe 4. It’s not like there getting nothing. Try to enjoy it because its probably the last of the accumulation of snow till at least December.

    1. Easy Charlie. At this point in the season, even 6 inches is a nuisance that is all.
      As I said above, I want ALL or NOTHING. Btw, 6 inches is a HUGE stretch for Boston. Boston sees 3-4 inches TOP end, and NOTHING at all low end.

      My forecast for Boston 0-4 inches. How’s that?

      2. Yea if boston had any shot at 6″ i think NWS would be at the very least issuing winter weather advisories. So far, nada for anyone outside of the cape and bristol/plymouth counties. I even expect those to be downgraded today except for the cape and islands

      3. You mean John. What’s with the easy? I’m just saying enjoy it and its better than nothing. Enjoy the day.

        1. I didn’ t mean easy like calm down or anything.

          I meant Easy in terms of it being easy for me to feel
          that way. 😀 😀

  193. Radar and satellite look rather pathetic too. I know its still early but im having a hard time picturing how this storm will even form

    1. Again, Ace we agree. That Northern stream system seems to have gone poof or at least lost some juice.

      It’s dealing with merging now and it looks like it might end up too far South
      and East when it gets it’s act together.

  194. I agree on that 4 map as well. Most have boston getting at least 4inches, it’s better than nothing. I think that coating to 1inch that seven had for boston is off the table.

    1. As much as it pains me to say, Another realist.

      Welcome aboard the NO TRAIN as opposed to the SNOW TRAIN. 😆

  196. Here’s our problem. Here are the 200MB winds around 2PM today.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_012_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=200_wnd_ht&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140325+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=20

    No matter how favorable the 500MB wind field is, the flow just pushes it along.
    such that what appears to be a NE or NNE flow at 500MB, ENDS UP being more
    of an ENE flow propelling the system out over the FISH.

    I don’t pretend to know what we would have needed to sharpen up those 200 MB
    winds. I just know on big storms we usually get, those winds are much sharper.

    I’m hoping TK and/or JMA could explain this to us.

    Time to make the donuts and head into work. Later.

    1. The top might be spinning really fast but if you have a fan blowing on it, it’s going to move a certain way.

      No significant changes to my forecast at this point, just updated blog!

  197. I was never impressed with this storm in terms of meaningful snow for Boston. This was likely our final chance. Enjoy the beginning of spring! See you all next winter, unless, of course another storm is on the horizon ;D It’s been a fun winter with everyone!

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