What’s New Is Old

139 Comments

7:33AM

It’s a new pattern, and in some ways the same old result for people’s feeling about the weather. They won’t like it. But it is a matter of opinion. Some of us, me included, won’t mind this. There won’t be much sun in the next week, and other than a couple mild days (today and well, maybe early tomorrow, and well….maybe sometime the middle of next week) it’s going to be a chilly pattern. Some significant rain is also on the way.

Today, a mild air mass moves in, but the price will be an increasing south to southwest wind which will get quite strong at times this afternoon and evening, along with a chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front. That front will settle through the region tonight and then stop just to the southeast of the region Saturday. Low pressure will form and ride up the front, bringing rain to southeastern New England Saturday afternoon through Sunday. By later Sunday and Sunday evening, enough cold air may work down from above to cause a mix with or change to sleet and snow in parts of southern NH and northern MA. This is always a tricky forecast at this time of year, so it is something to watch. By Monday, the low pressure area should be off the coast but wandering away slowly, so it will likely start cold and damp but may end brighter. Toward the middle of next week, with a tendency for high pressure to be in eastern Canada, a front to be south of the region, and low pressure waves also along that front, the tendency will likely be for not much sun and not a lot of warm air around. Not sure how it works out day to day so just a generally worded and low confidence forecast will follow at the end.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs climb to the 50s but holding upper 40s south-facing shores and some interior valleys. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, possibly stronger near the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers before midnight. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, shifting to W and diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partial sun possible early, then cloudy. Rain developing from south to north. Highs 45-50. Wind light W shifting to N in the morning, NE 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. Lows around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times. A rain/sleet/snow mix possible southern NH and parts of northern MA afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle especially southeastern areas morning. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s, may break 50 in some areas.

139 thoughts on “What’s New Is Old”

  2. Thank you TK!! I heard maybe some high tides Sunday. Will look forward to a busy ocean!! Hadi must be in the air or close. Someone else was flying out today. Was it North? Ace? Darn my old memory.

    1. I wish i was on a plane today! I am driving to the Albany area after work today to visit with some friends for college, but i don’t think i mentioned that earlier. I think it was North going to NYC

      1. I kind of thought it is North also. Have a safe drive and a fun visit, though, Ace. It sounds like a nice weekend for you.

        2. Yes it was me. My 8am was cancelled, got put on the 9 and then sat on the runway for 45 min. Finally here. Raining and windy.

  3. NWS mentions snow/sleet possibly moving in as the storm pulls away, but no specific locations.

    TK – Any chance the wintry precip makes it down to the Mass. Pike into Boston? This morning Chris Lambert had a snowflake in his 7-day and Pete did last niight as well.

    1. I’m always curious as to how mets on the same channel come to agreement with forecasts. I know on occasion, JR and Pete will make a forecast and state that the other is not in total agreement which I like to hear. If there is a protocol, I would think the head meteorologist would drive the forecast but it never seems obvious to me on any of the channels.

        1. Nor do I and the few times I have hear either Pete or JR saying the others opinion is different, it was done with incredible respect. They certainly are all very respectful of each other.

  4. It’s too bad we didn’t have the blocking pattern for the previous storm. It would have been memorable to say the least and ranked up there with all the big snows over the years. Boston would have possibly had close to 3 feet of snow. The most is the Presidents’ Day 2003 of 27.5″ which is still suspect to me IMHO…AFAIC the largest is the Blizzard of ’78 at 27.1″.

    It amazes me that a total pattern change can occur in just a matter of a few days in a blink of an eye.

    1. I was not alive for ’78, but the President’s day storm was the most snow ive ever seen from one storm (in this area anyways). I was at Bryant College at the time in Smithfield, RI and there was close to 30″ that fell in a relatively short period of time. Logan’s snow totals always seem suspect. Sometimes they are way under what surrounding areas get and yet sometimes, they’re way over. Areas to the south of Boston did realize those numbers in the upper 20’s-30″ range.

    1. Hey Charlie, do u think the golf course turfs will start to green up in the next week or so? Bachelor party plans include golfing at Mohegan Sun on 4/12 but im having doubts the conditions will be good

      1. It will be greener than any residential lawn, it depends on the crew they have working on it, they will be applying different products to speed it up, hope that helps 😉

        1. Thanks Charlie. I would think being further south in CT will help too plus those courses they tend to take better care of than some courses around here

  6. Good morning and Thanks TK.

    Another sure sign of Spring. I spotted a ROBIN this morning. The first of the season
    for me.

    Let the miserable weather begin, as per usual for New England Springs.

    2. OS – for some reason we had robins all winter. I’ve never seen them in the winter that I can recall. My daughter in Uxbridge and a friend in Southbridge said the same.

      1. I have seen them most of the winter too, with the exception of a few of the weeks with the most brutal cold weather and deeper snow pack. Not a lot of them, but a few.

        1. Exact same thing here. My youngest thought they were Canadian robins flying south to here but why this year?

      2. Wow. I don’t ever recall seeing a robin in the Winter.
        Today was absolutely the first one this year for me.
        Cardinals, Yes, Robins, No.

        Punctuate this:

        that that is is that that that is not is not

        😆

            1. that that is is that that that is not is not

              It’s easier if I paste the original in the comment so I can actually see it.

              That, that is. Is that, that. That is not, is not.

              Oh darn – this will drive me nuts

              that that is is that that that is not is not

              How about That, that is, is that. That, that that is not, is not.

              1. I always see plenty of cardinals during the winter, but I guess that is expected since I see them on Christmas card scenes.

  7. Ok OS the robin question was easier 😆

    I called the local bird store to see what to feed them. A friend finally told me they will eat the holly and sure enough they have been at my holly bushes which made me happy.

    1. I don’t even think I have all of the correct words.
      Not even sure where I saw this. Some movie.
      I’m not sure of the punctuation, but I “think” you nailed it.

      Have a great day.

  8. I said I wouldn’t post until fall … But here I am posting again. Reason is all that bird talk. Robins are different from most birds, despite being a very common bird. Some migrate (perhaps the majority), but many stick around all winter. Hence, when one says it’s a sure sign of spring when you’ve spotted a robin, it’s sort of an old wives tale or folklore that has no real significance. Robins make wonderful nests, and the one you spotted, OS, ir probably making one as I write this post. Take a walk down almost any street and without foliage/leaves it’ll be very easy to spot their nests. They tend to choose rather small trees. Often right next to the road, and not that high up (15-20 feet). The nests are so well built that they last many years, and are sometimes `recycled.’ Another bird that makes fantastic nests is the Oriole: a `hammock’ nest that appears to be tied on both ends to branches of trees. When I lived in Needham, I used to see their nests on Mill Road (Dover). Pigeons makes the simplest, rather pathetic nests. They’ll often choose a flower pot with some dirt in it that’s been left out on a fire escape or balcony (usually 4 or 5 floors up). The `nest’ is crude, and that’s being charitable to pigeons. It’s a couple of pieces of straw that they lay in the flower pot. Pigeons tend to lay their eggs right about now. So, don’t be surprised to see a mother pigeon lying on her eggs at this time of year. She’ll also lie on the young pigeon chicks, protecting them, until they’re ready to fly. Father pigeons are more `loyal’ than other male birds. You’ll see them hanging around, helping out, even after the eggs have hatched.

    Regarding the weather, all I can say is blah! New England at its worst. Luckily we won’t have to endure months and months of this. But still. When you know it’s 55-65 in London, sunny, tranquil, beautiful weather day in and day out for the past month, you’ll understand why British tourists who make the mistake of visiting NE in spring, are in a state of disbelief about our weather. They know how bad their weather can be (in summer, fall, and winter). And, they’ve heard how our climate is better than theirs (which it is, mostly). But, the one season I left out – spring – is when England is generally a merry place. Sorry Charlie, we don’t have spring in NE, not a real one anyway. I can only imagine how bitterly disappointed the pilgrims were in the `spring’ of 1621. The ones who survived, did get to enjoy a warm, hot summer (which they were unaccustomed to), and a prolonged, sunny fall (which they had never experienced).

    1. Thanks, Joshua. Very interesting re robins. I have no idea why so many noticed them all winter for the first time. We have an Oriole pair here most every spring but I have yet to find their nest 🙁

      1. They can be hard to find. You’re lucky to have an Oriole close to your house. It’s not a common bird.

        1. Funny thing is I watch for different birds so they must have been hiding really well. I have a great feeder setup and will put out oranges and jelly in the dishes that it comes with in the summer. But we had a spectacular mimosa (sadly had to just take it down) and the flowers drew the orioles to begin with.

    2. Agreed. MOST Springs in New England are BRUTAL.
      Fortunately, there is an occasional beautiful Spring to keep us Sane.

      I fear this Spring “may” be one of the WORST!
      Guaranteed BLOCKING at least through most of MAY and it wouldn’t
      surprise me one bit if it went into June.

      I remember one year in the 60’s, not sure which year, the blocking
      and miserable cold & Wet weather lasted until the 4th of JULY.
      I remember the 4th was unbearably hot, especially after all of the
      cold weather. We were down at Manomet for the 4th. The ocean
      temperature on the 4th of July was 53!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I do NOT NOT NOT want to see that again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      We shall see.

      1. I believe spring of 1982 was like also. But my memory wants to tell me that spring is lovely around this area. Everything starts to bud and flower. The earth smells wonderful…..etc. I fully expect to return from the beach at the end of April and start using the porch regularly. The windows don’t come out until toward the end of spring because of pollen but we will have the screen door open fully time.

        2. I wasn’t in the Boston area in the spring of `82 (I was living as an exchange high school student in the Netherlands at the time), but I remember two things from that spring:

          1. It was a beautiful spring in Holland; one that started early (in late Feb) and lasted until late May when the drizzles/light rain came back.

          2. I remember my father writing to me in April that year about a major snow-storm in Boston. Around April 8th or so?

          1. Day I got back from Holland (June 28th or 29th) to see my parents in the summer of `82 it was raining. And I could tell that it had been raining a lot in recent days and weeks. This said, I remember a fairly nice summer.

          2. And very cold. We were at the beach and my lovely older daughter was 2 and apparently chose that week and only that week to go through the terrible twos…..and we couldn’t even go outside.

    2. 2009 was the year that we had a cold and wet June/July. Not sure if you were referring to that.

  10. There is very little confidence in long range forecasting, especially my own, but I still feel we should see some easing of the pattern in late April, interrupted by some oscillating periods of cool temps until about Mid-May when I believe a prolonged period of above to much above normal temps and below normal precip sets in.

        1. Wow, great memory! Yes the big day is June 6th. We will end the last couple days of the honeymoon with the fiance’s family in Abruzzi, but before that we’re mainly focusing on the Tuscany region; Siena, Florence then up to the Cinquterre.

          1. Sounds like a great vacation. Mac was jealous when I told him. We have several Abruzzi bed spreads and a couple of throw rugs. They are beautiful.

    1. Jealous! Mostly bc i miss seeing non dormant vegetation and things alive and growing. Enjoy!

  12. Awesome day out there today. Even though its been partly to mostly cloudy, the mild temps make it so much more tolerable than yesterday. Even though the sun was out all day yesterday, its all about the air temp. I dont care how warm the sun feels this time of year, if the air temp is cold combined with any little wind at all, it feels cold

  13. Ace -enjoy your trip to Albany this weekend. Perhaps I’ll pass you on the Pike – I am heading up there after work today as well!

    Hadi, what resort are you staying at in FL?

  14. Today’s 12z GFS has precip totals of 5-10 inches over the next 16 days.

    I’m guessing the EURO probably projected 100+ inches of snow in 4 weeks over a handful of storms for Boston and what did Boston end up with over that span …. maybe 3 inches…..

    Unfortunately, I’m thinking the rain projections might end up a little closer than all those 5-7 day out EURO snowfall projections.

    1. Of course they will – we’ll be at the beach 😉 But if you can arrange for an active ocean, I’ll be happy !!!!

    1. Hmmm thinking tommorrow here in the southern third of the woodshill forecast area will be just as mild as today 🙂

      1. Hmmm not sure. Even down there, wind turns north, then east. Today it was south, then southwest. I’ll give you a 54 tomorrow by midday then declining slowly.

          1. Makes sense. The GFS is forecasting a land breeze that day.

            Not convinced, but possible interior southern New England. I’m comfortable with 50s now, so I suppose 60 cannot be ruled out, nor can 40s if GFS has the wrong idea.

            5 days away.

  17. Joshua – That snowstorm your father mentioned occurred on April 6-7, 1982. It was a very cold storm even by “winter” standards let along spring. The temperature during it was around 16 or 17 degrees and Boston received 13.3″ which is the 2nd most snow in the month of April. The most of course was April Fool’s 1997 of 25.4″ in which the temps were no lower that 30 degrees IIRC…a very heavy wet snow.

  18. I heard recently that El Nino will be returning at some point and that next winter will be considerably milder.

    TK – Do you agree with this and will El Nino affect the summer season in some way?

    1. It looks like we’ll enter a weak El Nino. We are in a long term cold phase now per PDO in which there are less El Nino episodes and more La Nina episodes. But yes, we may El Nino for a while. Will it impact Summer? Possibly but most likely in keeping tropical cyclone activity lower than normal in the Atlantic. It remains to be seen regrading next Winter, since we are not sure how long the El Nino would last. Jury will be out on that one for a while…

        1. Odds favor lower activity in that set-up, but lower activity does not necessarily mean there won’t be any East Coast threats. All it takes is one.

          Extreme example: 1992 was a very quiet tropical season. The first named storm was in late August. His name was Andrew…

  20. Ate dinner on the patio overlooking a lake and no humidity. Actually really comfortable and no humidity to speak of.

    1. Nice. Did you get out ok this morning? My 8 am shuttle was cancelled to NY and then we sat on the runway for 45 min on the 9am shuttle. Nice to be back home tonight. I had already left at 545 this morning for the airport when I found out about the cancelation 🙂

      1. Let’s hope for just average temps, this March has been way below temp wise, hoping for just an average April with temps in the 60’s

  23. Showers around here today but a warm day. Big boomers late this afternoon and evening as cold front plows through clearning the way for nice weather after today. I wish all my whw friends could enjoy the nice weather.

    North out flight was on time sorry you ran into flight problems.

  24. Low 70s and dry in Jerusalem…looks like spring weather won’t be greeting me at JFK Tues am….it’s ok–not a drop of rain the past 10 days, and no snow back home for my wife to shovel….

  25. Rainorama coming up.

    I’m not sure what to make of the upcoming weeks.
    I see a threat of some sort around 4/8. Probably too warm for snow.

    Nice yesterday.

    Up to 51 already today. One thing the weather yesterday and this weekend will do,
    is effectively eliminate “MUD” season for this year. I like that.

    I am selfish and I want to keep the RAIN AWAY!!!

    Much springtime rain => no fish biting in the rivers. Lakes and ponds sure, but I suck
    at fishing those areas. I can only catch fish in the rivers. No Rain Please. 😈

    1. Already in the low 50’s here, would not suprise me if we came close to 60 degrees again today 🙂

  27. Dave and Hadi hope your enjoying your trips.. Bing back the warm weather.
    Hadi watch those skies today tornado watch up for where you are in Florida until 5pm.

      1. Dew points that high and add a front coming through which will provide the lift and you got the makings for strong to possibly severe storms.
        What I find interesting is there is only a 2% chance for tornadoes yet the SPC issued a tornado watch. I have never seen a tornado watch issued with a percentage that low.

  28. Beautiful day today, so happy winter has been put in the rear view mirror, enjoy your trip hadi, most hear in New England are jealous 🙂 good day

    1. 50-54 as of 10AM across that area (warmest Taunton at 54). Wind is already N and shifting NE. Heavier overcast moving in now and rain only a few hours away. Beautiful morning, yes. Don’t think you get the beautiful afternoon and probably not getting much over 54, let alone reaching 60.

      STILL, not bad out there pre-rain, even without the sun.

  29. Balmy at the shore. Been sitting out and just enjoying. Well. Could be balmy by my standards

    Dave and Hadi. Have wonderful trips.

  31. I know it can but I’m going to take a guess and say snow is done around here maybe some in higher elevated areas but not here in southeastern New England.

    1. It may be, but as always I will not remove the chance until the date of the latest measurable snowfall is by us. And for my area that is May 18.

      1. While your waiting for the chance of snow on May 18th, I’ll be on Narragansett beach laying out, beach opens May 1st, only 4 weeks 🙂

        1. Charlie, believe me I’d rather be taking an early beach walk on May 18.

          I’m just stating my rule for shutting down the ability of the atmosphere to produce flakes of snow and pellets of sleet here. We all know how late into the Spring it has happened and will happen again.

          With a little luck we’ll flip the pattern so the beach days are more likely (even if the water will freeze us longer than normal this season).

          1. BTW I have never been to Narragansett Beach. Going to have to go down there sometime…

  33. Line is storms about to come through over the next couple hours which sets the stage for beautiful weather the rest of the week.

  36. Providence just touched 54 before the rain arrived there.
    Taunton was the warm spot at 55 and is now down to 52 after the expected wind shift to northeast.

    Thick overcast and rain soon to overspread all areas south of Boston. A bit later to the north. The very brief Spring party is over, at least for a few days. 😉

  37. Hadi stay safe down there.
    Nasty thunderstorms in Central Florida with multiple severe and tornado warnings.

  40. 48.8 degrees raining, I still think we reach well into the 50’s midweek, I know tk has disagreed with me on this, but I think 55-60 degrees for Wed/Thu is certainly possible, only real cool day is Sunday, we shall see 🙂 spring has just begun and will only getting warmer from here, obviously 🙂

  41. Winter storm warnings posted in Northern New England. Winter weather advisories posted in parts of Central New England. Spring doesn’t spring in places like Jackman, Maine, or Bretton Woods, NH. Spring is a continuation of winter, until one day out of the blue the thermometer hits 85. I have a feeling that we’ll (SNE) experience a dull, raw spring (though no snow) that also suddenly shifts or overshoots into summer sometime in May.

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