Dodge ’em

192 Comments

11:18PM

If you are in eastern MA, far southern and southeastern NH, and RI, you won’t likely see a whole lot of shower and thunderstorm activity even with the passage of a cold front and a developing low pressure area on it by Thursday. It will just be too warm aloft on Wednesday and I feel that the system itself will under-achieve due to dry air aloft messing it all up. However, we will have a risk of episodic showers/storms for a time between the overnight hours of late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning and extending into the day on Thursday. After that, improvement arrives Friday as high pressure starts to build in, though it may be a sluggish process, allowing for some additional clouds at times Friday. High pressure should dominate the weekend and early next week with fair and warm weather. A little bit of heat may try to build in around the start of next week as high pressure slips off to the south allowing a southwesterly flow to develop.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Increasingly humid. Lows around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds, with most sun south and east. Humid. Highs 70s to lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod, middle 80s to near 90 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mainly well northwest of Boston through evening then an increasing chance of showers/storms further southeast overnight. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to variable 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 89.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

192 thoughts on “Dodge ’em”

  1. It appears that I am first yet again! 😀

    Thanks TK – How do things look for Thursday evening activities?

    1. 🙂 That’s too funny since I actually made a Christmas present purchase yesterday! Came across a bargain I couldn’t pass up!

  5. Thanks tk. Keeping fingers crossed for the 4th weekend as were having the first family pool party on Saturday the 5th. All of these nice Saturdays have me a bit nervous.

  6. Good Morning 🙂
    For anyone following Eric Fisher’s Beach Week – my guess for today’s beach is Crane’s Beach in Ipswich.

  7. Hmmm

    Not impressed at all for T-storms in SNE. Ho-Hum
    Sort of like a Winter Snow storm potential going bust yet again.

    A smell a serious drought coming.

    We shall see.

    2. This is the NWS take on conditions for today and tomorrow:

      A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the distant interior this evening, and then Central and Eastern New England on Thursday. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. There is even the potential for some very localized flooding. Please share this post with your friends and family.

      https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/t1.0-9/10457950_640702232690818_7782742071399299945_n.jpg

    1. Like :).

      We must be at a pretty high precentage of avaliable sun received for June.

      I think its been one of the best weather June’s in the last several years.

  10. From NWS for our area tomorrow, Thursday:

    THURSDAY…THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
    DAY…WITH CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS /E MA…RI INTO NE CT/ DURING THE DAY…SO FOCUS FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL SHIFT E. MAY ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS IN SOME TSTMS.

  11. The heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds with the stronger storms will be the things to watch out for. I don’t see any severe storms with the front coming through.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Low

    1. Most of the rain will fall on Northern and Western sections.
      We shall see HOW much rain falls on Eastern sections.

      Certainly agree, NO SEVERE threat at all.

      We’ve been getting teased with these scary looking Capes and Lifted indices, only to see them go poof, very much like our Winter snow potentials. 😀

      The period June 30th through July 4th needs to be watched. Something “may” NAIL us during that time frame. Capes and lifted indices have been ALL over the map for that period. BUT then again, it may end up NOTHING at all. 😆

      I have to say, as much as we have been complaining about the Euro, it was
      NEVER on board with ANY of these Severe threats. Maybe we should only
      pay attention when the Euro is on board?????

    2. I really cant recall the last thunderstorm ……… perhaps a month or two ago and I think it was during a low pressure system, not on a cold front per se.

      1. We had some severe weather in New Milford and Soutbury CT back in May. It actually forced school to close
        the next day since there was power lines and trees down blocking the roads. The NWS out of Albany came
        down to investigate whether a tornado hit but after surveying the damage it was determined that it was
        straight line wind damage and not a tornado.

          1. The winds gusted and there were some power outages in my town. I thankfully did not lose power.
            The brunt of storm was southwest of me. The storm tracked from northwest to southeast that day and
            to me here in CT when the storms track in that direction we get our strongest thunderstorms which
            was the case when we had the tornado outbreak back on July 10, 1989.

  14. It’s definitely going to be a muggy one – dew point is already at 65!
    In short time the windows are coming down and A/C is going on!

  15. Last 3 hrs have seen a rise in the dew points from the mid-upper 50s to the low-mid 60s.

    I guess its all in what you are used to.

    I’ve been reading the Wilmington, NC NWS discussions, because we are headed there next week.

    Yesterday, their winds turned NE and how did they put it ……

    Today will be COMFORTABLE before a more seasonable hot, humid airmass sets in.

    COMFORTABLE translated to mid-upper 80s with dew points in the mid-upper 60s. We’re going to roast down there. 🙂

      1. Thanks, we will be. Kure beach water temp is reading 80F, which I like. Then, we are off to the outer banks for 10 days to camp in a state park, without electricity. This is the part I’m worried about for staying cool.

        Pamlico sound and the ocean definitely help with the daytime heat, it hasnt been above 85F at Cape Hatteras. Its the nighttime lows though, they’ve been consistently 75F-77F and the dewpoints are nearly always around 72F. So ……. We’ll see. I’m game to give it a go.

      1. Wind anywhere from 220 to 240 degrees, a decent westerly component. +3F an hour the last few hours. Maybe 90F potential?

        1. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE

          Say it isn’t so. I don’t want to see 90 OR anythung close.
          84 or or 85 will be sufficient, thank you! 😀

          1. Indeed 🙂

            But June 25th and havent hit 90F at Logan yet. Interesting to see if/when it happens.

            Even the missed summah of 2009 had a couple.

  18. Good morning, judging by models and timing of storms, not much tstorm activity around these parts. The severe tstorm season has pasted and I can’t believe it’s almost the 4th of July already 🙂 good day everyone!! 26 days till Public mini camp!!! Go Patriots!!!

    1. We get some of our most severe storms in the middle of the summer during times of summer heat and humidity. Definitely not past.

  20. I don’t watch much more than a few redsox games out of a yr, plus I can’t stand that fraud ortiz so I’m not really a big fan but I keep hearing how this team is out of it already, and looking towards next year already, is this true?

    1. I think so. The sample size now is nearly 80 games, which in football is equivalent to game 8 of the season. Their offense is not good and the last few games, the starting pitching has gone south.

      Missing Ellsbury and Victorino has been a big loss and …… I think the law of averages has caught up this year as far as winning so many close games.

    2. Most likely true. It will be very difficult for them to get out of this. I heard yesterday they need to go something like 55-29 the rest of the way just to get to 90 wins which doesn’t even guarantee them a playoff spot. I feel like they were so motivated last year to prove to everyone they could do it after the horrible seasons before that. They were overachieving. Now that they proved they could win it all, their drive just isn’t there this year. Their record this year more reflects what the team really is.

      1. They are MOST definitely out of it.

        They SUCK! that’s all there is to it.

        And for me, the Manager Blows Chunks!
        NOT impressed by that joker at all.
        I thought he was going to be good. NOT!!

        He might as well be Grady Little.

  23. Still some instability for tomorrow according to the 12Z GFS

    CAPE:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062512&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=030

    Lifted Index

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062512&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=030

    The above were for 18Z (2PM), but similar values for 21Z (5PM)

    So, IF one believes the GFS, T-storm development around these parts will be in the time frame of 1-6 PM or there abouts.

  24. 3F more for 86F.

    Bkazing sunshine here in Marshfield.

    Comparatively to the last several days, it feels really different outside.

    1. I was just out for lunch. It was 85 at home, but HUMID and it felt pretty
      uncomfortable outside.

    1. I wish I could agree, been sweating and have had the ac on off and on for the last 2 months 🙂

      1. I’ve turned on the AC one other time aside from when I get home from work today. Id hate to see your electric bill. Most residential AC units aren’t designed to run if outside temps are below 70 degrees. Have we had that many days above 70 since late April?

        1. Haven’t had to turn one on yet, although MAY be forced
          to this evening. We shall see how hot the house gets.

          1. Two of our three went on for the first time today but only for a short while – just enough to get the humidity out. The house is quite comfortable.

          2. Just spoke with the MRs and she says it’s getting
            awfully warm in the house. We don’t want to
            install ACs until we absolutely have to.

    1. 88 at 3PM. We shall see if it does. IF so, it would be the FIRST of the year, well past the average first date of occurrence. 😀

      1. Aren’t you bring dinner to Mac and eating outside this
        evening? You don’t want any RAIN until at least after that, no?
        😀

        1. Well yes I figured it was far enough away :). Dinner was wonderful. The breeze keeps it very comfy. And my youngest who doesn’t really drink alcohol had a yummy frozen marguerita waiting for me when I got home. Thanks for holding off the rain OS 🙂

  30. The NWS Graphic Map shows chance of rain on the south shore starting at 10pm and thunder chances after 1am.

    2. NO WAY it rains ANYWHERE on South Shore by 10PM. NO WAY!!

      They’re smoking something again. 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

      1. Looks like ANY rain in the Boston Area to South Shore holds
        off until between 8AM and 2PM, the bulk of it coming around 10-11 AM according to 18Z NAM. We’ll see what the 0Z runs show.

  31. 4PM Logan OBS 87.

    Looks like the wind kicked into DUE SOUTH.
    We get a bit of cooling from the Ocean South of Rhode Island when
    we get a due South Wind. I guess that would be the explanation.

    Not sure how high it got before dropping back a bit. 😀

  32. The latest NWS discussion says that despite overcast conditions in the morning, there will be enough moisture and instability in eastern MA for a few strong to severe storms from mid-morning through mid-afternoon tomorrow. That seems suspect to me. A few showers, downpours, and maybe a rumble of thunder will pop up I’m sure, but I doubt we see any severe storms tomorrow.

    1. Don’t be so sure. There are some fairly robust severe parameters in place
      for mid-morning to early afternoon. I’m not suggesting that there will be
      a severe outbreak, just that a few storms may pack a punch. 😀

  33. I am not buying severe weather however would not be surprised to see a few isolated strong thunderstorms across SNE with a heavy downpour lightning quick gust of wind.
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE…MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE
    ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT
    RANGE AND DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES TO START THE DAY…WITH 70 DEGREE
    DEWPOINTS IN PLACE…THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
    FOR A FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
    ZONES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING TO
    MID-AFTERNOON.

  34. There will not be much in the way of severe weather (very typical). Most of the showers will move through between 2am-8am. About a quarter to perhaps a half inch in heavier spots IMO.

  36. Thanks TK. Anyone who put down grubx. It says on bag not to use if expecting rain in 24 hours. That’s what my SIL said. I thought it had to be rained in. Tx

    1. Hmm, interesting. The only thing i can think of is you have a bag of grubex with an added weed killer which would need to stay on the leaves for 24 hrs before any rain to be effective. Otherwise, grubex needs to be watered in thouroughly as soon as possible.

        1. Vicki I totally agree with ace. Grubex needs to be watered in either manually or with rain. When you know rain is defently coming put it down.

          1. We may use nematodes. Im looking into it. We have the two dwarf apple trees there now and the kids so poison bugs me…..literally.

  37. Boston hit 89 today so no 90-degree day so far this year. Eric says Boston should hit 90 next Monday and/or Tuesday. We will see.

    The latest 90 degree day in Boston was on August 6, 1906. I would be curious as to how that particular summer was like overall in terms of temps. Of course, even if temps were right at normal, it was probably miserable without A/C, not to mention people in those days wore a lot more clothing than today even in the summer months.

  39. Grub x doesn’t need watering, just the preventative 🙂 I have mixed feeling on grub x

    1. Also remember you have the few in the mornings that will natural dissolve the product into the thatch layer, the difference between a grub killer and a grub preventative is the amount of time the product stays in the soils.

    1. Noooooooooo. Mac has three appointments between Brigham and Dana and I was going to try to drive him for the first time. No storms. Bad bad storms

  43. Flash flood watches posted in advance of that front in parts of NY and Litchfield County in CT. I think the heavy downpours will be the biggest threat with these storms and some briefly gusty winds in the stronger storms.

    1. Now that the diurnal heating has disappeared let’s see how they hold together.
      There is still instability, so it should be interesting.

  44. Lots of flood watches, advisories and flash flood warnings. Going to be some interesting rainfall amts in central VT, NH and ME.

        1. I always used to like the Merrimack River in Lowell, because a lot of its watershed is in central NH.

          Lowell hasnt seen a drop of rain today and yet, within a few days, its possible that there’ll be a rise in the river at Lowell, if central NH has gotten a couple inches of rain.

          Its easily noticeable in Lowell with Pawtucket Falls, which tends to run dry in the summer months, but spills over when there is a rise in the summer months.

          1. It amazes me how quickly a river can change. I always loved watching the Merrimack any the falls as we drove through Manchester by the mills when I was young

            1. I learned that the Sudbury flows south to north yesterday. You’d think with the amount of attention I give it I’d have known that

            2. I’ve always thought it was a beautiful river, as rivers go. 🙂

              Thats another thing I like about being close to the ocean, at one point a river can be bank full, 10 ft deep …….. and 6 hrs later, its a stream in the middle with lots of wet mud everywhere else.

              1. It is fascinating. And as beautiful as the Sudbury is I suspect the Nile might have something a bit more spectacular. Although I saw on chronicle that there are pontoon boat trips on the concord and Sudbury. One is for High Tea. When Mac is home, that is top on our list.

  48. I wonder if the news will have footage from northern New England tomorrow of some roads being washed out. Looks like VT is bearing the brunt of the flash flood warnings.

    1. A lot of that area is still recovering from Irene. Was it Irene. I’m blanking on that 🙁

  51. It’s in and out here in boston of intensity levels. Pours, than drizzle than a lull and repeats that pattern. It’s also still quite muggy outside bigtime .

  52. Heavy downpours and thunder around 3:00. I believe. Wasn’t sure if I’d drempt it until I saw longshots comment 🙂

  53. Wife woke me at 3AM to shut windows because there was a downpour.
    It was raining. Downpour? NOT! Thunder? NOT Lightning? NOT

    This morning, judging by the cloud movement, the FRONT is through Boston already.
    Doesn’t feel like it yet, but it’s through.

    What does that mean for convection today? Should limit it for sure. 😀

  55. I did not hear any rain and thunder last night. The sun is not out where I am.
    6z GFS CAPE and Lift Values. Nothing impressive although NWS does have some of the region in the hazardous weather outlook for a few strong thunderstorms later.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062606&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=015

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062606&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=015

    1. Don’t hold your breath!

      On another subject. All of those severe convective parameters depicted
      by the CMC for July 2nd have gone POOF!!! OH, does this ever remind
      me of the Winter Snow non-events. 😆

      Now we shall see IF they return. Sure. 😀

  56. ALL convection with the Front has passed the area:

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    Anything that pops up, IF anything, will be working with whatever leftover
    instability there is in the atmosphere in conjunction with diurnal heating.
    That heating “could” be substantial. We shall see.

    Sun is Out pretty good now.

    1. BTW, that front seemed to have accelerated a bit lat night as it’s forward motion
      certainly picked up the pace. Showers came through MUCH sooner than
      I, for one, expected. Oh well, that’s why I don’t do public forecasts. 😀

  57. 9 AM Dew point at Logan is 73!!!
    Have to go out to Worcester before it drops off a tab to 66.

    So, with the SUN and this humidity, could be some action soon.

    1. According to HRRR, stable air is moving down from the N and NE
      and will be moving in by 2PM or so. So any action in Eastern sections will
      have to develop between now and 2PM. 😀

      Else NOTHING. 😀

  58. It is miserably humid down here. Dewpoint at Marshfield airport reads 73F.

    Just had a cloud burst, maybe lasted all of 30 seconds, but it sure pelted down.

  61. NWS out of Taunton in latest discussion indicating CAPE between 1000 -1500. That is certainly enough CAPE for thunderstorm development. I don’t see severe weather but would not be surprised if a few places saw a quick downpour or briefly gusty winds.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Wind – Low
    Not going to give an impact for hail tornado or flooding since I don’t see those being a threat with any thunderstorm development today.

  62. Plenty of cumulus dotting the sky with perhaps 30% blue.

    Interesting though …. overhead points north, west and east appear to be fair weather cumulus.

    The tall, impressive looking cumulus are south of us, oriented in a west-east line that is slowly sinking southward.

    I wonder if something pops in far SE Mass (New Bedford, Fall River area) and near the Cape Cod Bridges.

      1. Probably so with Wind EAST at Logan. 😀

        Will that aide or hinder storm development?

        We shall see.

      2. You don’t think, you do. It is very clear, especially if you zoom in on the Nexrad display of Eastern MA.

  63. Perhaps it’s just I, but these cells seem to be PULSING. 😀

    Looks like Boston gets wet in the next hour or 2. 😀

  64. NOON, Boston dew point down to 67 with the wind out of the
    NORTHEAST at 17!!! That SHOULD KILL any storm approaching Boston. 😀

    Can’t keep away from that damn East wind, can we.

  66. Sea breeze is STRONG. It is KILLING any convection as it moves in.
    Totally CLOUDY. No SUN at all. Almost looks like FOG wants to roll in
    from the ocean. TOTALLY different day than anticipated. 😀

  68. had to step away for a few hours to watch a soccer game ….

    The US has advanced. 🙂

    Anyhow, much cooler down here now, clouded in with low stratus.

    1. Advanced, BUT did they win? How can you have a tournament where
      you advance when you DON’T WIN???????????? Sounds WACKY to me.

      US wins one, ties one and loses one, yet ADVANCES in the tournament????????

      Another reason why I HATE soccer. 😀

      1. Yea its a little fluky. They really only won 1 game when u get right down to it. That shouldn’t cut it in my book but oh well. It’s kinda like a couple years ago when one of those NFC teams made it into the playoffs with a losing record. They’re gonna need to play a lot better in the knockout round.

          1. I truly understand that some folks love the game.
            Thats’ wonderful, however, I was not brought up on soccer and never got into it and quite frankly can’t and won’t get into it. Just doesn’t interest me at all. Enjoy the rest of the tournament and I hope your team wins:D

      2. If I recall we can also advance in some sports if the right teams lose. Points maybe which actually makes sense to me but I’m guessing.

  70. GEEZ, 66 at the Airport.

    88 Yesterday PM to 66 this afternoon.
    I believe that is a drop of 22 Degrees. Gimmie a break!
    Good ole New England!!!

  71. Much different day than i expected. Pleasantly surprised to see considerable sun late morning into the early afternoon but not having temps dropping off into the 60s.

  72. I agree AceMaster. I did not expect to see this much sun today. Waiting for the drier air to move in for another great weekend.
    Will see what happens with that thunderstorm threat next week. It certainly looks like the humidity will be making a return early next week.

  73. Today working out about as expected.
    Lack of widespread activity.
    Cooling/drying (slowly) from the north & northeast.
    Lots of clouds, some sun.

    I’ll be updating the blog early this evening.

    I have a wake to attend.

    I’ll send a note when the blog is done later!

    1. Condolences, TK. Boy, what driving, heavy rain last night around 2-3am! I heard *one* thunder but didn’t see any lightning (to my disappointment), and it poured around 11am. Turned the central air on for the first time yesterday, looking forward to turning it off tonight 🙂 Hope everyone’s doing well!

      1. Thank you. My cousin passed after a long illness. I had not seen her much in the last 15+ years other than at her Dad’s wake/funeral a few years ago. She used to (years ago) live with her mom, dad, and 6 brothers/sisters upstairs from us (and there were 7 of us downstairs in this 2 family). 7+9 = full house. 😉

        I now live in the upstairs part of the same house I have been in my entire life. Mom & Dad are downstairs so I am close by to take care of them. 🙂

        1. My condolences as well. I’m thinking that she was too young. Very tragic.

          And a full house is the best kind of house. I love and envy that you live in a house with wonderful, lifelong memories.

          1. She was in her early 60s. She was the second oldest child in that family.

            Out of the 12 children that lived in this house growing up (My aunt’s/uncle’s 7 kids and my parents’ 5 kids), I am the youngest. 🙂

            1. Early 60s is too young. I’m so sorry. And that is a lot of older siblings and cousins. Holidays must have been wonderful.

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