Light Filter

123 Comments

10:25AM

High pressure will hold rain off this weekend, but will have a tougher battle keeping cloudiness away. Lots of high-level cloudiness will dominate today, filtering and dimming the sun. It will shine a little brighter at times as clouds are periodically thinning out as they battle high pressure and drier air from the north. Clouds will win the battle a bit more tonight into Sunday, becoming thicker, with more limited sun on Sunday morning into afternoon. The end of Sunday may turn out more like today as cloudiness starts to thin out again. At this time an area of rain from a developing low pressure are to the south is expected to stay just offshore of Cape Cod. With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south, the air flow will be easterly, which will keep coastal areas the coolest, but also preventing inland areas from getting too warm, though it will be comfortable.

High pressure takes over for the first part of next week with more sun and warmer to hotter air moving in. By Wednesday, an approaching front and low pressure trough may set off a few thunderstorms, with more activity likely by Thursday as the front moves through. This front may be slow to exit late next week so a low confidence forecast will have some lingering cloudiness and perhaps a shower in it for Friday, but this may change.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of high cloudiness – filtered to dim sun. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light SE to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with middle cloudiness hiding sun much of time but thinning out later for a little more sun at least interior MA and southern NH later in the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM t-storms. Low 69. High 89.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/t-storms. Low 66. High 82.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 62. High 78.

123 thoughts on “Light Filter”

  1. Thanks TK. Barry said this morning that August will be hotter than it has been so far and there will be a few days with 90+ temps…UGH!

    1. I sure hope so. August will be a little very early preview of Summer 2015. 😉

      I think I have the long term figured out earlier than usual. 😀

      Near to below normal temps rest of July. Near to above normal temps August/September. Variable precipitation depending on where you are.
      Mild and wet Fall (2014).
      Mild and dry 1st half of Winter (2014-early 2015).
      Cold and dry 2nd half of Winter (2015).
      Cool and dry Spring (2015).
      Hot and dry Summer (2015).

      1. I’m thinking Canada then, next summer !

        We’ve had 1-2 inches of tropical showers this morning, along with a return to oppressive humidity. Temps are relatively cool, low 70s.

  2. Thanks TK. Clouds make a great umbrella when you have a yard full of people. As long as no rain falls 🙂

      1. Enjoy your day. Maybe not bright sun but you don’t need it. No rain. No oppressive humidity. No heat. Not even that much wind. 🙂

  3. TK, sounds like after this fall the theme is dry dry dry. I seem to remember that theme being forecast the past couple winters but turned out differently in terms of snowfall. Is there anything u see this year that’s different?

    1. The winter before last my forecast sucked. Everything happened 2 months later than I said. This past winter it didn’t suck as bad but still sucked. We had much more snow than I expected even though the general pattern was similar to what I expected.

      Going into this winter I think we have the type of El Nino that starts us out mild and dry with all the action in the Southeast. Readjustment between that and the hot/dry Summer pattern is probably a chilly one, hence the early thoughts of a colder end of Winter into Spring.

      I don’t typically discuss such long range with this much detail but I can see it working out this way…

      1. Thanks TK! I appreciate the explanation 🙂 I totally forgot about the El Nino factor. It’s been a while since we had a true El Nino. Makes sense though.

  4. Tk if at all possible I would like you to explain what you are seeing that you think winter could come in with every little snowfall. I do believe you said this maybe 3-4 weeks ago and thought you were just kidding but you said not so. So are you still thinking this could be a winter like what was it a few yrs ago with mild and not much snow. I’m still scratching my head figuring why such a bold call 3-4 months before snow could fall. If you have the time a full explanation would be great. Thanks again for all your hard work to make this blog a dependable place to get weather conditions, enjoy your weekend!!

    1. See above. It’s tied to El Nino. But other factors need to be weighed in before it’s solid call.

  6. And southeast does that mean southshore and cape get more snow I guess I’m confused thanks tk.

    1. It means southeastern US (Carolinas etc.) gets more storminess while the Northeast is quieter.

        2. Don’t worry about it. Sometimes I assume people automatically know what I am referring to. If you are unsure, just ask. 🙂

  7. Thanks tk 🙂 heading to Skip Jacks Patriot Place then buying a Mankins and Mayo jersey, saw Doug Flutie he’s still short lol, 5 days till public mini camp practices!!! Can’t wait!!! Good day everyone!! Go Patriots!!!

    1. Hey Charlie let me if that place is worth the drive for me . I believe that’s seafood right. Looking for a place with huge big belly clams.

      1. Lots of people like red wings down in that area. I never liked skip jacks in framingham but it could be totally different in Foxboro. Have you tried bridgewaye clams. Two years ago they were no as good. This past April they were quite good

        2. Vicki it’s funny you mentioned the Bridgeway as we had dinner there Monday night. It’s been years since I walked in there and first for my wife. I had chicken and eggplant parm I did not care for and she had lobster casserole and enjoyed it. Went to the new haddads in brant rock as they are known for good seafood. She had twin lobsters and loved it. I had the delux seafood platter and was so disappointed the clams looked like the size of a nickle and scallops were worse .

  8. so TK are you thinking droughts for this up comming long term? If so what would this winter look like :P… Hoping its a good as last years winter

    1. I agree with TK about overall pattern but I think when we get snow they will be big ones. Not many but enough to put us at average.

      1. If the SE is active, we always have to watch for something that heads up this way with a slight anomaly to the general pattern.

      2. Thanks!

        Pretty nasty upper respiratory virus, cement-head, upper lungs congested, headache, sore throat, minor cough, some body aches. You know, the typical. It’s keeping me up right now but I’ll get some rest soon. It did not stop me from spending 7 hours at Revere Beach. 😉

  10. I was out running errands all afternoon including having the car washed and cleaning it beforehand. I was sweating bullets. Did NOT feel dry to me. Got home and checked
    the dew point. It is 62. That is not dry. It is not oppressive, but it’s not dry. I could
    feel and my wife feels it.

    That system down South SURE looks like it wants to come up and even get more
    than the Cape. It looks like it wants to include ALL of SE MA almost or perhaps
    even up to Boston.

    Take a look:

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    1. Was hunid to me as well! I like a dewpoint of 45! Was justt finishing mowing the lawn and discovered a hornet’s nest and then they discovered me! Off to get some spray to spray at dusk :).

          1. Duh!(@#*()!@#!@#*!@#)(*

            Sorry, that was the temperature. Dew point
            is 59. Still doesn’t feel like it has come down here.

            Oh well.

  11. It doesn’t feel to bad here. I started painting my new pool shed and it wasn’t that bad.

  12. Just found out ex patriot Sammy Morrison with be coaching with my dad this year, it will be my dads 36th year coaching in na pop warner. Anyways not a bad day, little cloudier than I anticipated but o well 🙂

  13. What you think of my skins this year Charlie? I think top 5 offense but defense will struggle. Pats look tremendous IMO except for wr issues. Defense will be top 5.

          1. what ever happens make sure the giants don’t make it, hate that team more than i do the jets

    1. Great fun john. Our mosquitoes were out earlier than usual..I think from the cloud cover. How are they there

  15. Not bad at all . Sprayed the yard and us. My son and his buddy bailed inside so just my wife and I . Walmart sells these logs that work great and last a few hours for like $10.

  16. Just got back from Virginia. Vacation went by too quickly but it was nice to get away and the resort was very nice with shuttle service to the theme parks and Colonial Williamsburg.
    As for the upcoming winter and early guess I don’t think snowfall is going to be impressive this winter and I hope I am wrong.

    3. Welcome home JJ. I missed your posts. Very happy you had a nice vacation. They sure do end too quickly.

  17. I have no idea how these people made it out alive after that horrendous hot air explosion in Clinton, no idea.

  19. It was indeed more humid Saturday, but it didn’t feel “muggy” because of the lack of warmth. But if you are sensitive to it, you could feel it.

    Some sneaky rain overnight along the South Shore to Cape Cod. That system has over-achieved in my opinion.

    Clouds dominate for Sunday, some sprinkles Cape Cod but little or nothing elsewhere. May brighten from the west later in the day.

    More typical July weather Monday-Wednesday, especially Tuesday-Wednesday when many 85-90 high temps will take place. T-storms may rumble through the region Wednesday night and if that front keeps on moving, Thursday may turn out better than my forecast above indicates. I’ll keep an eye on that and tweak if I feel it is necessary.

    Time to rest for a few hours. I go through the entire Fall, Winter, Spring, no colds… then get nailed with this nasty little mid Summer virus. Go figure. 😉

  20. Today’s (not very well phrased) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The greater the difference in air pressure over an area, the greater the difference in…
    A. Temp change
    B. Wind speed
    C. Pollen count
    D. Flood potential

    Answer later today.

    2. That quiz is terrible. Doesn’t even make sense to me.
      But give the very poorly worded question the only answer that makes
      sense is B.

  21. Typhoon Rammasun, which I have been following, hit China yesterday after intensifying from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in very short order. I know that typhoons can intensify rapidly over the South China sea, but this really was a beast and many lives were lost in the Philippines and China. I think this was the strongest typhoon to hit China in the last 40-50 years.

  22. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the second new moon of the month called?
    A. Missing Moon
    B. Blue Moon
    C. Unseen Moon
    D. Has No Name

    Answer later today.

  23. Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which one is false? The moon has …
    A. No wind
    B. No water
    C. No temperature changes
    D. None of the Above

    Answer later today.

    2. One would think it is B, no water, however that could be trick question
      and none of them are true. Is there any water locked in rocks anywhere
      on the Moon? I know there is in Mars, but I can’t remember.

      I’m going with B.

      Going to google it and see. 😀

  27. Good morning!! A bit cloudy here with a few sprinkles. Only 4 days till Patriots mini camp begins, it’s finally here!!! Kids have been asking everyday is today the day, I sadly say no 4 days to go, 1 just loves Gronk, the other just likes football, good day all 🙂

    1. Saw something the other day about who people would rather have, Gronk or Graham. The overwhelming response was Graham.

      1. The thing is ace is gronk is an outstanding player but the big thing is when he’s on the field as he is so injury prone I think it’s going to end up giving him a short career. I hope I’m wrong but I’m just waiting to see him for an entire season because they need him so bad.

        1. Very true. They desperately need Gronk a full season and into the playoffs. Id still take Graham even if Gronk is healthy.

  28. Was in Quincy last evening and while waiting in line at Dairy Queen I was RAINED
    on. Figures.

  30. It has taken its time, but it sure looks like a slug of rain is about to move in over
    the Cape and why not? We’re headed down there to meet friends for dinner in Harwhichport at Buca’s Tuscan Roadhouse. Of course its going to RAIN!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX

    btw, this restaurant is OUTSTANDING, if you like traditional Italian. In the Summer
    reservations are needed about 2 months in advance. 😀

    http://www.bucasroadhouse.com/

    2. Enjoy oldsalty nothing like good Italian food . Spending the night as that’s a hike from your house. I suspect about what 1.5 to two hr drive .

        2. Sounds yummy. Would like to try with Mac. Most of our traditional Italian is here as there are so few restaurants that do it well. We are not spring chicken like you are OS so will have to spend the night. Have a great time

  31. Why am I not surprised??

    From NWS:

    LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE AND
    EVEN THE MOST RECENT ECMWF RUN NOW PUSH SOME LIGHT QPF UP TO ABOUT A PVD-BOS LINE /ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR/

  33. Repost of all quizzes. Read carefully — they were not well stated today and one is tricky unless you read it well.

    Today’s (poorly phrased) 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The greater the difference in air pressure over an area, the greater the difference in…
    A. Temp change
    B. Wind speed
    C. Pollen count
    D. Flood potential

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the second new moon of the month called?
    A. Missing Moon
    B. Blue Moon
    C. Unseen Moon
    D. Has No Name

    Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which one is false? The moon has …
    A. No wind
    B. No water
    C. No temperature changes
    D. None of the Above

    Answers later today.

    1. answers
      1. B
      2.d
      3. I do not know why but its A. Moon has traces of water, there is temperature changes. but it has no wind since it has no atmosphere 😉

  40. I made a horrendous forecast for this weekend. Not happy with the results at all. 😛

    I will recover and kill it on The Week Ahead in a little while. 🙂

      1. Of course it’s way earlier than I would normally talk about winter, but every year is different and so far I feel like I have a handle on the long term trends.

        BTW my long range forecast for this Summer is working out nicely to this point. Judah Cohen also nailed it so far, as has Harvey.

  42. Yes you have done great and indeed a great forecaster I’m just still surprised with you not thinking much snow for this winter so early. I did not see the summer forcast put out by Cohen or Harvey. By the way I hope your winter forcast as you see it now pans out as I like it. Feel better tk.

    1. Judah said we’d be in a battle zone often for at least the first half of Summer due to lingering cold in Canada and frequent troughs dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast, holding off any prolonged heat, and increasing the frequency of thunderstorm threats. So far it has verified nicely.

      He didn’t say it would last the entire Summer. There are some hints of a little more Bermuda High action retrograding from the central Atlantic toward the western Atlantic as we progress into the latter stages of Summer, basically August and possibly into September.

  43. Why did you make a bad forecast. Yesterday was exactly as you promised. Today is perfect but more sun …..

    2. Just overall not happy with the results. I know that yesterday worked out great for you but there was more extensive cloudcover than I expected.

  44. Answer to Today’s (poorly phrased) 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The greater the difference in air pressure over an area, the greater the difference in…
    A. Temp change
    B. Wind speed
    C. Pollen count
    D. Flood potential
    The answer is B, wind speed

    Answer to Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the second new moon of the month called?
    A. Missing Moon
    B. Blue Moon
    C. Unseen Moon
    D. Has No Name

    The answer is D, No Name that many attempts have been made to name it. I believe there might be some confusion here because I believe the answer may be B. This has to do with definitions. If someone has an answer please chime in.

    Answer to Today’s 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which one is false? The moon has …
    A. No wind
    B. No water
    C. No temperature changes
    D. None of the Above

    The answer C is false. The moon has temperature changes. Today’s quizzes were tricky and tough.

  46. I remember tk as august being called the dog days of summer the hottest part, is that probably going to hold this season. What is boston at so far for 90 degree days 3-4 times. I have not been paying attention.

    1. “The Dog Days” are defined as the period from July 3 through August 11, the climatological hottest part of Summer. However, the actual weather pattern dictates the details. It is often that the coastal areas see their best beach weather and warmest spells in August due to the warmer ocean waters.

      I believe Boston has hit 90 on 3 days so far.

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