The Week Ahead

106 Comments

6:30PM

Just beyond the mid point of July, it really is still early Summer, and we’ve had some very  nice weekends so far this season. This particular weekend may not have been as nice as many of the others but it wasn’t terrible either. But now it’s time to look ahead to the coming week!

On Monday we will find ourselves under the influence of a building high pressure ridge aloft but still low pressure on an old frontal boundary east of the region over the ocean. This means fair weather but air still modified by the cooler ocean. We get rid of that and get a land breeze going Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be much warmer days, almost hot! Almost… Well it may feel  hot to many because we have not had that many hot days so far this Summer.  Will anyone reach 90? If it is going to happen this most likely day is  Wednesday, which will have a moderate westerly wind ahead of an approaching cold front and high pressure aloft. This approaching front may set off isolated thunderstorms mainly well west and north of Boston late Wednesday with a better chance of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity holding off until late Wednesday night or Thursday, depending on the timing of the cold front. This front is expected to move along enough to allow fair weather and mild to warm, drier air to dominate the end of the week. Though it may not be completely cloud-free as some cooler air will be aloft and can initiate cloud development Friday and Saturday. A larger scale trough is expected to approach from the west and the weather may go downhill again before next weekend is over.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy South Coast / Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light NE to N.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 72-82 from coastal to inland areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63, again cooler interior valleys. Wind light E shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Increasing humidity. Highs 75-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible late day far NW of Boston, scattered showers/thunderstorms night. Breezy. Humid. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Low 70. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late showers. Low 64. High 80.

106 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK. Pretty decent weekend and most of the week also decent. So far this summer has been awesome IMO.

    1. It’s certainly not last Summer (much less heat so far), and it’s certainly not 2009 (much less rain/cold). It’s really not that bad.

  2. I would say the water at Revere beach yesterday was surprisingly swimmable, despite the fact it was not that warm outside! I thought I was going to experience the polar plunge, but instead I found it to be enjoyable! 😛

  3. We are on the move again. We are heading up to Point Sebago for a couple of days starting Thursday. We are going to leave early and stop by Nubble on the way up north.

  5. Yeah the Cape couldn’t buy a break today. We had a fabulous afternoon in the suburbs of Boston. Light east wind, 70s, lots of sun, a few clouds blotting out the sun at times with more visible off to the E and SE.

  6. Thanks TK and get better soon so you can continue to enjoy the rest of the summer. 🙂 If in fact that Boston has had 3 days of 90 degrees or higher, then we have a long ways to go. Boston on average has 14 days worth. Since I hate hot weather, I don’t really keep track of such things.

    From my perspective, I am keeping my fingers crossed that we get no where near the average. 😉

  7. TK – Since you are predicting that we will have a mild/wet fall, doesn’t that promote a later leaf turning and dropping?

  8. Thanks TK and hope you are on the mend. The consensus was from all out of staters that this was an perfect weekend….even the San Francisco folks. I agree with Hadi. We are having a great summer weather wise

  9. I agree I think this has been a good summer so far and still a ways to go. I like the mix mostly 80s a few 90s and some humity as well. I would however like to see at least one nice heat wave before September.

  10. Every time it looks like it wants to try to dry out over far SE MA and Cape Cod the rain just re-blossoms. Very interesting set of happenings there to really make it a very locally unsettled day while the rest of the region turned out fantastic.

    1. It was nice here today tk just mostly cloudy some filtered sun . It just rained here a bit ago but since stopped it was like a heavy quick sprinkle. Same thing around 1-1:30 this morning.

  12. Saw Orange County choppers roll in today with a beautiful Patriot motorcycle, what a gem!! 67.5 degrees goodnight 🙂

  13. Hmmm,

    Nice afternoon on the Cape? NOT.

    From 5-8PM it poured buckets in Harwhich. Then until about 9:20 PM when we
    left it was showery off/on rain. On the drive home it was intermittent showery
    rain. Hit another absolute downpour driving through Plymouth and then just North
    of there it was dry as could be. Stars were out at home when we arrived.

    Nice weekend? NOT in my opinion. Personally, I think it SUCKED.

      1. Ya think? I don’t generally sugar coat anything. 😀
        Hey, I even got rained on Saturday evening waiting in line
        at Dairy Queen!!!!

    2. I gotta admit, I was a little disappointed in saturday’s weather. We had all intentions of heading to the beach but found out pretty early in the day it would not be a beach day. Was looking forward to that all last week.

  15. SPC has a good part of SNE in the general thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday. Parts of northern New England are in the slight risk zone. Being that Wednesday is the day 3 outlook there will be no updates to this today.

    1. JJ, you know…

      With all of the Intense instability parameters we have seen this year
      days in advance of a frontal passage only to have Nothing materialize…
      AND when anything DID happen, it was NOT advertised. 😆

      Well I’m not holding my breath. I’ll believe any activity when I see/hear it. 😀

      And given that, there is the Usual DIVERGENCE among the models with
      timing/intensity etc.

      I don’t see so much as a sprinkle in Eastern sections on Wed. I think TK
      has the best take on things, as he usually does. 😀

    1. Issue the Warnings!!! Take Cover!!! It’s Armageddon!!!

      Impressive parameters for Northern and Western Zones. Mighty impressive.

      Now will that translate into action? Given recent history, I think Not.
      These model runs have consistently over cooked these parameters. 😆

      We shall see.

      Thanks. Impressive to look at.

  17. 6z GFS more aggressive with CAPE Lift and EHI compared to 6z NAM
    Old Salty I agree about seeing impressive parameters a few days in advance to have nothing happen. I just have a feeling one of these times the parameters will not be impressive but mother nature will have tricks up her sleeve and that is when we get nailed. We had a day back in May here in CT where there was suppose to be no severe storms in CT but we had some as the models underestimated the CAPE.
    Right now I think with this front coming through a few isolated non severe storms across parts of SNE but the bigger threat will be the POTENTIAL for heavy rain with these storms since the atmosphere will be loaded with moisture.

    1. We’ll just watch and wait as per usual.

      I’m not convinced yet that we even see all the rain you are indicating.
      It may happen for sure, I just don’t see it yet.

      We’ll see if the 12Z GFS is as aggressive. 😀

  18. I am thinking the GFS will come back down to earth as been the case every time we have had thunderstorm threats but will see
    what happens.

    1. My lawn is so dry the crabgrass has taken over the dormant spots. Those crabgrass treatments in the spring claim 4 month efficiency, they lied, lol

      1. My lawn is the greenest crabgrass you’d ever want to see 🙂 The folks here on Saturday from CA thought it was glorious. Of course anything but brown is beautiful to folks from California 🙂

          1. OS even neighbors with watering systems have laws that are struggling. I am just not a fan of poisons and water waste. We will be in trouble with water shortages very soon….everywhere. There is already a serious problem with poisons. So where crabgrass would have upset me at some point, it now makes me smile 🙂

  20. Hi Charlie…. I would not be surprised if the Cowboys defensive gave up close to if not more than 30 every game this season. Our defense is terrible. Demarcus Ware are best past rusher is now a Bronco and Sean Lee is out for season. I like the offense with some big play makers Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Demarco Murray. Our offense has to be on every game this season in order for us to win.
    The over under with the Cowboys is 8. I am think 6-10 7-9 season.

  21. Bold prediction for the Pats for me this year. They steal the division at 10-6, Brady will have his worst year statistically, and the much anticipated “top 5 defense” will struggle to find its identity, including Revis who will miss a few games due to injurt and never be 100%. Even with better defensive backs, they will fail to change their defensive philosophy to a more aggressive style. BB has failed as a defensive minded coach to adjust to the changing league before and he will be stubborn again this year.

  23. 12Z NAM has ALL of the action FAR to the North and West with CAPES above
    2,000 joules. Then has NOTHING for Thursday, indicating the front passes
    through Late Wednesday night/Thursday AM with little or no fanfare in these parts.

    Just one model, ADDING to model divergence.

    Again, I’m not impressed at all.

    SURE, far North and West may get hit hard, but NOT HERE. 😀

  24. CAPE is around 1,000 for a good part of SNE. Some pockets of 1,500. Certainly nothing impressive but enough for thunderstorm development. Lift is -4 to – 6.

    1. Perhaps so, but the lift and action is WAY to the North. By the time anything
      comes this way, CAPE has disappeared. I just don’t see it happening around
      here. I wonder how bonkers the 12Z GFS will go?

  26. 12Z GFS pretty juicy for about 21Z (5PM) on Wednesday and Nothing Thursday.

    Here we go again. 😀

    1. Getting close to the Cape Verde Season. (If I’m not mistaken, these produce
      the most severe Hurricanes for our area)

      1. Usually the case OS. I’m curious if there is as much Sahara dust and dry air coming from the African mainland this time around that limited the development in that area last season. Also am curious the status of this developing El Nino that’s supposed to suppress development closer to the home

        1. Don’t know, however, if you look at some forecast runs
          of that system, it drifts into South America and then meanders out into the far SW Caribbean. Does not look
          too threatening at this time, but something to watch. 😀

  29. TK

    ODD question/request

    My roof is leaking and I just had a roofer give me a complete estimate.
    Please don’t mind me, but I’m suffering from Sticker Shock!!!

    In any case, I have a flat roof over my very large kitchen and it has a rubber membrane roof that I thought would last forever. Not so. It has been compromised
    and is in desperate need of replacement. My roofer suggested that I file a claim
    with my insurance Company.

    In order to do that, do you think there would be one or 2 particular recent weather events (last year or year before) for which I could assign blame to this? Perhaps a rain or snow/rain event followed by extreme cold, followed by a sharp warm up such that perhaps seams could come apart? I don’t know. Just looking for anything. NOT even sure a claim could be filed. But if it could, I’ll do it.

    Many thanks

    1. OS I had similar circumstances with my roof a few years back. The contractor felt I had storm damage and I filed a claim. It is tough to pinpoint the storm that did the actual damage and you shouldn’t have to do that. The appraiser determined it was due to hail. I would say go ahead and file a claim and have an appraiser take a look. I got a fully paid for roof replacement.

      1. Scott,

        Many thanks for the input. Very helpful.

        Did your insurance premium go up after that?

            1. This is true. We had a new roof put on our house when we bought it last year and i was shocked at how much it was on a little ranch.

              1. Indeed. I can’t believe the amount of money they want.

                I could go with a cheaper roofer, but I did that last time and Now I am paying the price.

  32. Not buying that solution until I see other models start to show that. I think the GFS will start to show less CAPE and Lift in future runs which has been the case everytime we have had thunderstorm threats.

  33. Ace,

    Replace it myself????? ROTFLMAO 😆

    I’d surely fall off. My wife has NOT allowed me on the roof for years now. 😀

    Even IF I didn’t fall, I’d screw up the roof with certainty!

    1. Hahahaha! We can all pitch in. It would be a Woodshill Weather roof, able to withstand anything! 😀

  34. OS I just went into a state of depression. I just had a rubber roof put on and expect it to last for years. They have the plastic or is it aluminum but the research I did showed it to not be as reliable……which scares me more. Believe me I feel for you.

    1. I’d go for the feb 9 storm or is that too far back. One storm didnt cause the leak we had last year and if I were to blame anything for compromising a rubber roof it would be the ice dam buildup. At least on ours, the entire slab with ice underneath slid down the roof. I had a pic on FB of at least two feet hanging past the edge of the roof. I’d blame the ice for tearing the rubber as it slid down. Does that make sense. I don’t know how to link to the pic I have on FB

      1. Thanks vicki. That sounds good.
        To post facebook pic do this.
        Click on the photo. Then when the
        Photo appears enlarged right click on it.
        You will see options. Click on open in another tab.
        Click on that tab and copy the url (web address).
        Now paste that url on whw. Viola. Done

            1. Wow!!

              Thank you Vicki. Pretty impressive and I could see how that would cause damage.

              See what you can accomplish. 😀

    1. My niece who was here from CA with her parents for the Mac reunion is a huge fan of the Red Sox and thinks there is no stadium like Fenway…which there isn’t IMHO. They had tickets to the game Friday night and I think brought luck to the sox

  37. Hi all! Sorry about that. Had to take many breaks from the computer screen today. I’ve reached the stage of the virus where the worst is over, but there is enough sinus pressure that my upper sinuses are inflamed and it’s impacting my vision (light sensitive watery eyes). I probably look like I was watching sad movies all day. HAHAHA!!

    OS… Looks like you got some good advice with your roof issue. If you were looking for specific events, the bloggers and their great memories here could probably point out a couple potentially damaging events over the last couple winters that impacted your area significantly.

    1. Darn I am sorry that virus is hanging on. Hot compresses and blow nose. Lots. I bet you knew that but I can’t seem to help myself. Feel better quickly, dear friend.

      1. Thank you!
        Another thing that helps me is hibiscus tea. It’s a natural anti-inflammatory and the steam helps too. 🙂

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