Heat It, Cool It, Warm It, Pool It

8:44PM

Weather changes will be plenty for the next several days. First a hot and breezy Wednesday not without a thunderstorm threat in the afternoon and evening, especially northwest of Boston where some strong to severe storms are possible. This will be triggered by a cold front sliding in from the Great Lakes and nearby Canada. The details of the thunderstorms will be worked out and updated through comments and on the Facebook page (for those who have access to it).

By Thursday, the front responsible for the storms will also be introducing much cooler air, but the front itself maybe sluggish so clouds and a shower threat will linger especially in eastern areas for a while before improvement arrives. High pressure will bring this improvement as it starts to build in, and then will deliver a couple great days Friday and Saturday, with lower humidity but a warming trend. And thenΒ  the next change will be taking place as a trough of low pressure, again rather deep for the time of year, drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes and Midwest and sends increasing moisture this way during Sunday and Monday, at which time some significant shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to develop. The trough should start to lift into southeastern Canada and weaken by next Tuesday with improvement but still some risk of a shower as humidity will likely be on the higher side.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog, especially coastal areas and CapeΒ  Cod. Clear but hazy elsewhere. More humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds and fog burning off early then hazy sunshine but developing clouds in the afternoon, some possibly building into thunderstorms and a few areas mainly northwest of Boston, and also a line of storms possibly approaching from the west by evening. Any storms may be strong. Humid. Highs from near 80 Cape Cod and 80s South Coast to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, locally gusty near storms.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday then slow clearing west to east. Lowering humidity. Highs in the 70s. Wind mostly N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 65. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 67. High 82.

182 replies on “Heat It, Cool It, Warm It, Pool It”

    1. Looks stormy (many showers/storms) 7-28 into 7-29. Activity should become more scattered to isolated as the week goes on but may be possible daily. Also looks like a humid and fairly mild to warm week.

        1. Well, maybe partially, but I have a feeling that the majority of next week actually ends up decent because the trough that will be pretty amplified as it drops into the Midwest is probably going to start to die and lift rather quickly into southeastern Canada, so the impact will lessen in that we won’t have prolonged wet cloudy weather, but just a daily risk of showers/storms of varying coverages and intensities. Also some signs of retrogression of ridge into western Atlantic which may hold the trough axis back even further.

          1. Cool, thanks. Hopefully it will be OK. All the kids want to do anyways is swim in the hotel pool. They could care less about anything outside…HA.

            1. Have a wonderful time. Will you visit Story Land? Santa’s Village? As I said to Coastal, I have many wonderful memories of that area. Time for us to go back I think!!

              1. We did StoryLand last weekend since my brother was in town before getting shipped out to Saudi. We usually do that and Santa’s Village the same week but this upcoming week we will only do Santa’s Village. Plenty of things to do to fill the other days.

  1. Morning

    As the weather is pretty quiet except for today I thought we should set a date for a get together. First do most people prefer a weekend night or a weekday night? I will see responses through today and tomorrow and then toss out a date. Let me know what you all think. I also think think we should do it near 95 in dedham area? Lots of places to choose from and easy for everyone to get to. Unless someone had a better idea.

    1. I’m in Hadi! I think either a Fri evening, Sat daytime, or Sat night would be best. Weeknights are tough sometimes. The Dedham area seems central to most. I’m free most dates except around Labor Day.

    2. Dedham is fine for me. I have a big project going on at work so I am not available on Tuesdays or Wednesdays through mid-September.

  2. NWS Service Headlines this morning:

    .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/…
    * A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
    THE EVENING HOURS *

    Hmmm…..
    DO they KNOW what day it is???????????????????????????????????

  3. At Boston Medical Center all day waiting for my mom to come out of surgery. Booorrrrreeedddd

  4. On the other hand, I added to my golf resume last night. Holed out from about 180 yards out for an eagle 2 on a par 4. I didn’t even see it go in the hole cuz of the thick haze in the air. I knew I hit it well and was on the green somewhere though. Walking up to the green I didn’t see my ball anywhere. Thought it might have rolled off the back but between the 4 of us we couldnt find it. I figured it rolled off the back and took a drop and played it out. As I went to pull the flag a ball popped out with it! Sure enough, my Titleist 1 with 2 black dots was starting back at me πŸ˜†

    1. Nice shot. Those are the ones you remember for a long time. I still remember on a par 4 hitting a pitching wedge from 70
      yards out and the ball going in the hole for a par and that was when I was in high school.

  5. Is Boston going to get hit now. It’s gone compleatly cloudy here, temp drop and very breezy .

        1. John,

          I just took a good look out the window.
          I see MUCH blue sky and a few lower cumulus.

          Must have been a brief passing deck of low clouds.

    1. Might be some of that high level smoke from the forest fires out west and Canada. Driving into Boston very early this morning the sun was a dark red/orange color most likely from the smoke.

  6. That timing is the key as always because if it could come through during peak heating then things could get interesting for parts of the interior. I think the eastern areas garden variety of thunderstorms should they survive the trip and as we have seen during thunderstorm days most of the time this year they have had time surviving the trip with the exception earlier this month when there were severe and tornado warnings in the Boston area.
    Special Weather Statement came out about an hour ago highlighting parts of the interior for damaging wind gusts.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Low
    Hail – Low

  7. SPC has moved there slight risk area back further west to the CT River Valley westward clipping far northwest CT. Yesterday they had the slight risk area near the Worcester area. Of course we have seen many times where you could get severe storms not being the slight risk area.

  8. 12Z NAM has precip reaching Boston around 9PMish.
    Then has a crapload of rain for tomorrow morning.

  9. Off track a bit but the 133,000 sqft plainridge casino is almost done being built as well as the 36M parking garage is complete. Doug Flutie will be there next month when his restaurant starts on fine details, I actually can’t wait, have a good day everyone πŸ™‚

  10. Did it officially hit 90 yet in Boston? If so, its only the 4th day this year Boston has hit 90. At least a couple of those days just hit 90 and nothing more. The humidity has been there this summer but no sustained heat. I dont see that changing anytime soon.

    1. Pretty much where the best instability is during maximum diurnal heating coupled with the best timing for the lift.
      There won’t nearly be as much instability when the front/lift approaches
      Eastern sections. πŸ˜€

  11. As far as I know, it was somewhere in the network of servers that takes care of WP, but it was brief and all seems to be fine now. πŸ™‚

    1. It’s fine unless one is neurotic and desperately needs to post! πŸ˜€ πŸ‘Ώ πŸ˜†

      All is well.

      1. I tried on a regular basis so guess I fit into the neurotic category. The plus for you is that you actually post meaningful info

  12. recent discussion from Taunton NWS office:

    AFTER 00Z THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
    MOVED CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE ONETHING TO BE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
    ATMOSPHERE NOT BEING WORKED OVER AND THE WARM…MOIST ATMOSPHERE BOILING OVER THE REGION TODAY BELIEVE ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION THEY WILL EAT UP ANY INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP INTO STRONG STORMS.

    STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS. MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

    1. Since when do storms “eat up instability”?
      Don’t consume too much instability or it will impact your digestibility. πŸ˜›

      1. Hey, They’re your friends over there. πŸ˜€
        Talk some sense into them.

        Seriously,

        What are the chances of Strong or even severe storms near Boston this evening? My guess is Non and slight and slight just left the building. πŸ˜€

        If any, probably West of rt. 128 or even West of rt. 495.

        1. Tending to agree. It’s going to take a coincidence of colliding boundaries to build a severe storm inside 95 this evening, that is unless there is enough instability to eat. πŸ˜‰

  13. That line of storms is moving fairly quickly.

    Will they hold together?

    We shall see.

    If one is to believe the HRRR, NOTHING happens in coastal regions until after Midnight and then in greatly weakened form. πŸ˜€

  14. Down to 87 at Logan with wind straight out of the South.
    Now that WILL enhance thunderstorm development, NOT! πŸ˜†

  15. It’s now 4:17 according to my computer and there are ZERO, NADA, NO storms
    in Massachusetts. πŸ˜€

  16. 18Z NAM STILL has precip making it to Boston around 9PM ish.

    Distinctly DIFFERENT than the HRRR runs. So, what else is new?

      1. You know, for the uninformed, that headline could be interpreted to mean SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS for EVERYONE and not just in the fancy colored area. πŸ˜€

        OH, SO MISLEADING!!!

        I think they need a good HEADLINE WRITER! πŸ˜€

        1. It is a really busy graphic and took me a few minutes to figure out. Headlines and layout need help

  17. Looking ahead NWS has the region in hazardous weather outlook Saturday night through Monday time period.
    THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
    WELL AS FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

      1. Just to look at something else.

        10M winds

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=UV10m&hh=102&map=qc&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=102&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        850MB winds

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=TT850&hh=102&map=qc&stn2=UV10m&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=102&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        There’s a little shear there between the surface and 5,000 feet.

        I’d like to see 925MB winds. Looking at the 12Z Euro, we can see that at 925MB winds are more WSW to almost West.
        That is some low level shear going on.

        Hmmmmm

  18. Surgery went well today. All home and safe and sound πŸ™‚ Cooled down a lot out there

    1. Great to hear Ace. Even at 1230 last month getting home from BI on a Friday it took us 90 minutes.

  19. Line of storms seems to be holding together as they cross the CT river. JJ the front runners seem to be north of you. Wonder if the lagging part of the line will hold together for you

  20. The storms are north of me. Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for my county until 10 pm tonight.

  21. Line still looks good but parts of it are starting to become outflow-dominated.

    Where this does not kick off new strong cells we’ll see weakening. We have to watch for redeveloped stronger cells becoming more scattered within what was originally a more solid line as the thing chugs to the east.

    I think the greatest chance of the big stuff is from Springfield to Worcester and south of there.

  22. Latest from NWS re: Sunday/Monday. Pretty strong wording.

    A FINAL NOTE…EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS…BOTH
    PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY…THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING.

  23. NWS out of Taunton already highlighting the Saturday night through Monday timeframe in the hazardous weather outlook saying moderate risk of strong to severe storms. This will be the next thunderstorm POTENTIAL to keep an eye on.

  24. I really hope this line can stay together. At least for some rain. Looks like its staying together longer than i thought

  25. Just talked to my wife her and my son have been up Hampton beach till tomorrow. They just finished the fire works as they did them an hour earlier because of the storm threat .

  26. I think some hold and we get rained on but nothing too crazy but I think they hold to some extent.

  27. And poof for here. But looked healthy west of here. And it ain’t about just one area πŸ™

    1. I was just about to say it looks as if you have lightening all around you. No warning but looks as if system to your south held together pretty well

      1. I think we are under the same storm, which caused us to pull into a hotel for the night. I think we are near Woodbury, CT.

        Anyhow, long haul today from southern VA, so perhaps the storm was good to make us do the last 2-3 hrs tomorrow.

        1. Glad you are safe and sound for the night. Good distance today. Sounds like you all have had a great time over the last few weeks.

  28. Tom your close where I am in Watertown, CT if you near Woodbury.
    Vicki there have been severe thunderstorm warnings north of where I am and south of where I am tonight.

  29. DIDN’T RAIN A DROP in JP. πŸ˜€

    Gee, what a surprise. πŸ˜†

    Now the hype begins for the next round on Sunday. Sure.

    GFS is predicting the END of the World on Sunday.
    The CMC is FAR more realistic. πŸ˜€

    Right now, I’d say garden variety in the Boston area at best. Subject to change of course.

    You know I was just thinking this morning. Seriously, I have NEVER witnessed
    a truly severe thunderstorm, and by that I mean with winds in excess of 58 mph
    as per definition. I grew up in Eastern MA, mostly in Millis. Although I have
    seen some nice storms with vicious lightning and down pours, I have NEVER seen the wind. Once several years ago, I drove through one storm on rt 95 In the Walpole area that pelted our car with quarter sized hail. That was the closest I’ve seen to truly severe.

    Conclusion: It is almost impossible to have a truly severe thunderstorm in
    Coastal sections. Can it happen, sure. But it generally does not.

    Now inland. Well that is a different story.

  30. The Taunton NWS office has REMOVED the strongly worded statement about
    70% chance of SEVERE weather on Sunday. WHY do they put that stuff out so many
    days in advance when so MUCH could change????

    I’ll never know. TK, did you speak to them? πŸ˜€

  31. Good morning from Gillette, the biggest sport this country has to offer is upon us, beautiful day for the beginning of football season. There’s about is guess 3-5,000 people here already watching the red white and blue. Go Patriots!! Good day everyone!!

  32. NWS out of Taunton has removed the hazardous weather outlook for the region for the Saturday night through Monday timeframe. Yesterday they were indicating moderate probablity of strong to severe storms. No outlook from the SPC for Sunday and Monday and if they don’t issue an outlook beyond day 3 there is less than a 30% chance of severe weather.

    1. Yup.

      Personally, I am getting annoyed with the HYPE coming out of the Taunton
      NWS office. A general statement about a “possibility” is fine. Spewing this 70% probability of SEVERE 4 days in advance is just NOT responsible!!

    1. All I can say is something from an OLD Television program, BOZO THE CLOWN:

      ALWAYS KEEP LAUGHING!

      Because that is ALL I can do after looking at ANY of the GFS instability parameters!!!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  33. You don’t put 70% probablity of severe weather four days ahead of a thunderstorm day nor did you say in your hazardous weather outlook moderate probablity of strong to severe storms. Those statements should be made the day prior to a thunderstorm day not four days prior.

      1. Just a feeling right now and it could change when all is said and done it will probably be some heavy downpours
        with some embedded non severe storms for the Sunday Monday timeframe. With that said I am keeping an eye on
        it.

  34. Had a very brief downpour in Attleboro early this AM. And when i say brief, i counted the seconds from the first drop to the end and it was about 90 seconds.

  35. Not bad for a 9:00am weekday practice, estimated 7,500 showed up, last year an estimated 6,500 showed up for 1st practice, I’m liking the clouds keeping me from getting hot, great day!!!

  36. Not a drop of rain in Boston last night. I was surprised, given the passage of the front. Plants need some water, not to mention the chestnut trees in the park. Not parched or extremely dry out there, but consistent rain’s been lacking. Let’s hope the rain does materialize on Sunday.

    Continued cool conditions up north (Canada). So far on Baffin and Ellesmere Islands this month it’s barely reached 60F, with most days in the upper 40s/low 50s. That’s fairly unusual. I think that when all is said and done this will not be a warm summer for most of the North American continent.

  37. Feels as if the drier, slightly cooler air is trying to move in.

    Does anyone know what these annoying moths are?

  38. EHI Values on the 18z NAM in the 1 to 3 range across SNE with the higher values in eastern sections. Knowing the NAM this is probably overdone but still worth keep an eye on.

  39. My wife and I are very sad to see the news about the campground in southern VA on Chesapeake Bay, hit this morning by a tornado, that killed 2 campers and hurt dozens of others.

    We were at Kiptopeke State Park through yesteday morning, about 10 miles south of this campground.

    Never would have thought a thunderstorm could have continued to intensify to that degree (the tornado part) after crossing all that water. I guess the local NWS down there have confirmed an F1 tornado.

  40. Just recently from the NWS taunton office:

    THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD OF
    THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL.

  41. SPC take on Sunday Severe:

    WITH AN EML PLUME POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
    WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME…POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ON SAT INTO EARLY SUN…WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXTENSIVE. THIS MAY HAVE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON TOTAL BUOYANCY AND RENDERS THE NEED FOR GREATER MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY TO HIGHLIGHT 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITIES.

    Taunton needs their writer. πŸ˜€

  42. So …. here on July 24th, looking at Meteorological summer, the tale of the tape at Logan shows …..

    (4) 90F days ….

    June ever so slightly above avg temps (+0.7F), July currently running (+1.3F)

    Fair to say the overall consistent pattern has been Western US Ridge, Eastern US Trof

    In spite of this trof occasionally deepening bigtime, it is interesting that the temps are still a bit above normal. Precip seems very close to avg.

    Wonder what the 2nd half of summer ends up bringing ???

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