Friday Dryday

10:33PM

The transition day is done, and it was a nice day for many, despite some cloudiness. Some wet weather was still hanging around parts of Cape Cod, but now it’s time for a high pressure area to build in for Friday with pleasantly dry air and mild to warm temperatures, along with lots of sun and a few clouds – a great Summer day!

The weekend will be a split decision. High pressure hangs on Saturday which will be a warm day with fair weather and a slight increase in humidity. By Sunday, a trough from the west will bring unsettled weather with more humidity as well as showers and thunderstorms. This will continue Monday as a deeper trough of low pressure digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The trough should start to weaken and lift northeastward into southeastern Canada toward the middle of next week with improving conditions.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s except lower 60s urban areas and immediate coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 80, cooler Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 60, some 50s interior valleys. Wind light S.

SATURDAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY:Β  Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

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103 Responses to Friday Dryday

  1. Vicki says:

    Thank you TK

  2. Hadi says:

    Thanks TK.

    For those interested we are going to do a blog get together on Thursday 8/21 at JP licks at Legacy place (Dedham). Meet up at 7:30 and we can go from there. As group we can decide to stay there or head somewhere else. Look forward to meeting everyone.

  3. Sue says:

    Thanks TK! One more work wake-up til vacation!!!!

  4. North says:

    Thanks TK!

  5. John says:

    Hopefully Sunday won’t be a compleat washout.

  6. Old Salty says:

    Earlier this morning the SPC has the slight chance of severe to our SouthWest
    in the Mid-Atlantic area:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1406283823493

    From the most recent model runs, ALL severe parameters have lowered since
    yesterday for both Sunday and Monday. Another reason NOT to jump on earlier
    model runs. πŸ˜€

  7. JimmyJames says:

    SPC has SNE in the general thunderstorm risk area for Sunday.

  8. John says:

    Watch it be a great Sunday with not a cloud around.

  9. JimmyJames says:

    To me the key to Sunday is the warm front. If it clears and we get warm sectored I could see where there could be showers rumble of thunder in the morning then we break into POTENTIALLY self destructing sunshine and have to watch later in the day if we get a trigger for another round of showers and storms. If the warm front gets stuck I think there could be lot of clouds around all day.

  10. Vicki says:

    Good morning. Horrible tornado damage in VA at a campground last night. Tom or JJ was that near the areas where you vacationed?

  11. JimmyJames says:

    Hi Vicki…. That tornado was northeast of where I was last week.

  12. matt souza says:

    2 more weeks until the first preseason game for the patriots. Our defense looks awsome this year. Though i would have liked to have talib still on the pats

  13. matt souza says:

    oh to talk about that tornado, 5 years ago when my family went down there, that was our campground that we stayed at.

  14. Charlie says:

    Good morning

  15. Vicki says:

    Did I hear 116 in Phoenix yesterday?

  16. Old Salty says:

    12Z NAM is quite different.

    Show some instability early Sunday, then not so much later in the day.
    Has more instability for Monday.

    I think models are having trouble determining timing of short waves and fronts
    and where/if surface low develops. Loads of uncertainty for the weekend into
    Monday.

    Waiting for NAM to be totally available at http://meteocentre.com/ to see the LI
    and EHI in addition to the CAPE available at Instant weather maps.

  17. Tom says:

    I’ve been looking at some Canadian visibile satellite pictures.

    There is a plume of smoke rotating around an upper level low around Hudson Bay.

    I think some of it is over New England today.

    If it stays clear through this evening, I wonder if there may be one of this extremely red sunsets ?

  18. Tom says:

    So, 48 hrs out, instability parameters look good.

    If I’ve been paying attention correctly, at some time before the event, all the modeled parameters back off.

    When has that general timeframe been ?

    • Old Salty says:

      Tonight’s 0Z or tomorrow’s 12Z should start the back off, I think.
      We shall see.

      REMEMBER, for this event the NWS called for 70% chance of SEVERE weather
      a few days ago! πŸ˜€

      • Tom says:

        I know I’m trying to compare apples and oranges, but …. from a surface perspective, it seems like a surface low is going to track a bit closer to our region.

        I think many lows have been north of New England, but this low seems to be headed for north-central New England and I wonder if the corresponding dynamics may end up closer to southern New England ???

        • Old Salty says:

          Indeed. BUT, again, each model is DIFFERENT with that.
          Look at the CMC. It has a low developing over SW
          CT.

          We shall see. πŸ˜€

  19. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks for the significant tornado ingredient links Old Salty from the SREF. Will be interested with the next run of that model says but both time periods you posted CT is in the red shading.

  20. WeatherWiz says:

    So what’s Monday look like right now in my area (Woburn)? Leaving for vacation but hesitant now since I have so many water problems. Any sense as for amounts…start and stop times? I know it’s subject to change. Thanks.

    • Old Salty says:

      Depends upon your model of choice. πŸ˜€

      I honestly couldn’t tell you.

      It’s possible we get the worst of any possible severe weather on Sunday AND/OR
      Monday. Difficult to say at this point.

    • North says:

      WW, they had to drag me out of here to leave for vacation on the 4th with Arthur pouring down.

  21. Old Salty says:

    Helicity of 100-150 doesn’t sound like much, BUT if you put that together with
    CAPES of 3,000 or 4,000 Joules, then it becomes a serious factor.

    We shall see.

    • Old Salty says:

      Not for nothing, But 18Z NAM shows
      surface winds at 0Z from South with 850MB
      winds Wsw, 700 and 500MB due West.

      We got some shear going here.

      • Tom says:

        Big time !

        We’ll see if everything will line up (heating, dynamics, moisture, etc).

        I think they’ve always been out of psynch this summer, but perhaps this time, they will be more in phase.

        • Vicki says:

          It this is out of psych weather, I’ll take it…well maybe with a few more Tstorms. Maybe you really can’t have your cake and ….

  22. Philip says:

    There are currently 3 totally different 7-day forecasts by the TV mets. I would expect something like this in the middle of winter…not in the middle of summer.

    If you have plans I guess…pick your favorite 7-day and go from there. πŸ˜€

    • Philip says:

      Hmmm…the WBZ website has a different forecast for Sunday (sunny) from what Eric has on-air which is showery like the others have. However, Harvey has it wet for late next week…I actually saw that on TV. Eric and Pete have it nice & dry for next Friday.

      I am wondering if from now on, I should check the on-air broadcast to confirm what the website says regarding these 7-day forecasts. πŸ˜‰

      • Woods Hill Weather says:

        Web pages are not always updated very well.

        And I believe depends on where you look, Ch 4’s page has forecasts from the weather team there and from AccuWeather, so they can vary greatly even on the same day’s forecast.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      Looking at the upcoming pattern, it surprises me not one bit that those forecasts vary. :)

  23. Charlie says:

    Good evening, beautiful day!! We are beginning late summer visits on Monday. Hoping for some rain on Monday.

  24. AceMaster says:

    Are we looking at a washout sunday?

  25. Vicki says:

    Happy vacation Sue

  26. Charlie says:

    Sunday looks wet to me, especially between 9am-3pm, goodnight :)

  27. Longshot says:

    Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico

    Answer later today.

    • Old Salty says:

      This is another question that is ambiguous.

      It is worded POORLY again.

      I know where they come from and in my opinion, the answers
      don’t provide the true answer.

      For the sake of giving an answer I’ll say ‘C’, California.

      • Longshot says:

        AccuWeather has had a number of what I consider not-so-great questions and not so well worded ones at that.

        • Old Salty says:

          Oh yes. I’m not blaming you.
          I really appreciate the quizes and enjoy them.
          Thank you for continuing to post them.

          Accu weather blows!

          I just wish they could word them better and have more
          concise answers. πŸ˜€

    • AceMaster says:

      D

  28. Old Salty says:

    Once again conflicting information regarding severe weather tomorrow and/or Monday.

    A tornado threat, IF ANY, appears to be tomorrow in Western/Southwestern
    sections of NE.

    Here is the latest SREF significant tornado ingredients map for tomorrow:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

    Significant tornado parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    Helecity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f039.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

  29. Old Salty says:

    Interesting to NOTE: The SPC now has our entire area in the slight risk
    for severe. I wonder what kind of watches they will post tomorrow, IF ANY.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1406373478156

    Brief text excerpt:

    SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE WEAK THUS ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK.

  30. Hadi says:

    So reading about El-Nino that is supposed to develop, I feel it’s more likely to be weak. I think that greatly impacts our fall and winter weather.

  31. JimmyJames says:

    Old Salty thanks for all the links. The 6z NAM has come down a little with EHI values from my part of CT but still values on that run of the model the CMC and the SREF are showing ingredients that some of these storms could POTENTIALLY rotate.

    • Old Salty says:

      That’s what we are watching. Interesting that SPC says
      Low level shear may be weak thus any tornado threat would be brief
      and weak.

      Usually when the SREF has those significant tornado ingredients bullseyes,
      that is precisely where the SPC ends up posting a tornado watch. I wouldn’t
      let my guard down just yet. Hopefully there will be NO tornadic activity.

      IF there is, western sections are PRIMED for it, includuing your area.

  32. JimmyJames says:

    If we get what I call on thunderstorm days self destructing sunshine that will further destablize the atmosphere as we should be warm sectored tomorrow and thunderstorms love feeding off that unstable environment. The ingredients are there for some strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow and even the POSSIBLITY of a rotating storm based on what were seeing in the latest model guidance. I will be interesting with the 12z runs show.

  33. Old Salty says:

    With all of the above, I must add that the 0Z run of the Euro was NOT at all impressive
    with regards to severe weather. Garden variety t-storms at best. πŸ˜€

    Hey, but what do the Europeans know about our weather? πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  34. JimmyJames says:

    Despite SPC have all of SNE in the slight risk tomorrow no hazardous weather outlook posted by the NWS out of Taunton when on Wednesday afternoon they were saying moderate probablity strong to severe storms Saturday night through Monday timeframe.

    • Old Salty says:

      I often wonder about our local NWS office????

      Very strange, indeed.

      SPC, generally, know their stuff.

      I’d go with them. πŸ˜€

  35. AceMaster says:

    Charlie, u mentioned u are starting late summer visits. What do those typically include?

  36. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Good morning all!

    I just updated the blog and reposted the quiz there, but I didn’t repost anything after that. Feel free to do so. :)