Weekend Update

8:23AM

No changes to the previous discussion and very little change to the details of the forecast that accompanied it. Here is a slightly updated forecast for southeastern New England for this weekend and next week (through Friday).

TODAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring late morning and late afternoon/evening. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms through midday. Low 64. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 78.

THURSDAY:Β  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 80.

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157 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Reposting of Longshot’s AccuWeather Quiz:

    Longshot says:
    July 26, 2014 at 6:53 AM (Edit)

    Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico

    Answer later today.

  2. Old Salty says:

    Interesting wording from NWS Upton, NY office.

    THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE
    FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+ KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
    SHEAR)…APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE…400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
    HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
    SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      I could see that as a possibility, but have you ever noticed much of what comes out of those discussions, potentially speaking, does not usually bare much fruit? πŸ˜‰

      • old salty says:

        Mobile here. Yes tk yes yes
        There is some potential. We shall see

        Nws =》 hype

  3. North says:

    Thanks TK

  4. Vicki says:

    Thanks TK

  5. Charlie says:

    Good morning everyone, a nice summer day mixed clouds and sun, went to Patriots mini camp this morning, we got there 30 min’s before practice and the count was already at 9,100, they said there expecting between 15-20,000. One more mini camp practice tommorrow and then there off to Richmond for joint practice with the redskins. Good day everyone!!

  6. Old Salty says:

    Issued 10 minutes ago by SPC. Our area still well within Slight Risk area for severe:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1406396543432

    • Old Salty says:

      You know model watching gets frustrating the way it evolves and keeps changing!

      12Z runs have BACKED off considerably for tomorrow/Monday. πŸ˜€

      We’ll see what later runs show.

      Checking SREF now. πŸ˜€

  7. Old Salty says:

    Seasonal monsoon shift signaling start of busiest part of hurricane season.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/BteoWwFCYAAd3U2.mp4

  8. Old Salty says:

    IF and I do say IF these WPC maps are forecasted correctly, could be interesting
    Both tomorrow AND Monday

    Tomorrow evening:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98fwbgus.gif

    Monday AM

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/99fwbgus.gif

  9. JimmyJames says:

    SREF still highlighting a good chunk of CT in that significant tornado parameters for tomorrow.
    Thanks for those links Old Salty.

  10. JimmyJames says:

    That SREF has been consistent and what I noticed Old Salty was a 15 with a circle around that in my part of CT at 15z tomorrow.

    • Old Salty says:

      Yes, but that does NOT mean that any tornadoes will occur.
      However, they appear to be MORE likely than at any other time so
      far this season.

      BTW, EURO severe parameters, although they call for T-storms, are NOT
      very impressive as to severe possibilities.

      We shall see.

      Just for you JJ, I am going to post one Euro Severe parameter, the
      APRWX Tornado Index. It’s a special index that is based on an area
      first having parameters for severe and then it zooms in. It is close to your
      area, but not there.

      http://i.imgur.com/uf6Uysl.png

      You will note that the index is at the top of the scale!!!

      The threshold where things begin to indicate “yes, expect tornadoes” is 28.
      …on the respective maps.

      The ranges go up to a maximum value of 50. Think of higher values as a higher confidence level.

      • Old Salty says:

        So, IF I understand this correctly, a top of the scale reading
        is a very STRONG indicator to the likelihood of tornadoes.

        The location could be off as not all of these models agree.

        IF the conditions find themselves farther North, like the SREF
        is indicating, it could get really dicey in your area and who knows, could be a large chunk of SNE. Something to monitor carefully.

        • Old Salty says:

          BTW, to me, that location doesn’t make sense.

          I’m guessing the actual location would be more North
          and NOT over the ocean. πŸ˜€

      • John says:

        You would have been a great met.

  11. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Old Salty for the link. That is a little too close for comfort where I am.
    I am thinking the greatest threat for an isolated tornado is Mid Atlantic but would not rule one completely out here in SNE tomorrow based on some ingredients that are in place.

  12. JimmyJames says:

    My bullesye for an isolated weak tornado tomorrow would be Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. However I would not be surprised if there is an isolated weak tornado here in SNE and I would favor the interior from CT River Valley West for that.

    • Old Salty says:

      JJ what makes you think that any tornado would be weak?

      I personally think that ingredients are in place for possibly more than
      just a weak tornado. An F3 or higher would not surprise me at all.

      We shall see.

      Actually the index is misleading.
      It is Significant ingredients, NOT ingredients for significant tornadoes.
      They should really clarify that. πŸ˜€

  13. Vicki says:

    Highlight of pats camp today…..the entire team sung happy birthday to Danny Nickerson. Just makes you smile.

  14. Old Salty says:

    Waiting for the rest of the 18Z NAM data, but CAPE values are DOWN
    with this run. That’s a good sign, Of course it is only 1 model and it is the 18ZA run
    at that. We continue to watch. πŸ˜€

    • Flowergirl75 says:

      Say it ain’t so, OS for Nashville. I have dear friends who live in a northern suburb who have just lived there for 7 months. Like all of us, they’re hearty New England folks who aren’t used to that sort of thing. They’re wilting in the summer heat and humidity there. I do fear for them, as their property doesn’t have a ton of trees to act as shields, and they don’t have a basement or storm shelter.

  15. Longshot says:

    Answer to Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico
    The answer is C.

    • Vicki says:

      Awwww darn. The wayside inn was nice enough to reserve an outside table for lunch tomorrow. It will be our first meal out with mac and he was more comfortable on the patio. And looks a a if the weather may not cooperate. :(

  16. Longshot says:

    Tough trip to get across the Atlantic.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  17. John says:

    Head up be aware of scam IRS phone calls!!! Hitting my town today and yes I received a call . It’s a 202 number. Just thought I would pass along. Call your local police dept if you receive this call. If you do answer try to get information without giving any of yours.

    • Flowergirl75 says:

      Thank you, John! Those robocalls are the bane of my existence. I’m on the National Do Not Call List, and these hooligans still call. I just ordered a Panasonic phone system that blocks “private,” “unknown,” and “blocked” numbers, and you can program up to 60 numbers to block from coming through. Can’t wait until it gets here!

    • Old Salty says:

      I’ve received 3 of those calls. I reported them all.

  18. JimmyJames says:

    SPC continues to highlight SNE in the slight risk for severe weather today. The bigger threat looks to be in the Mid Atlantic and Ohio River Valley where tornado wind and hail probablities are higher than they are here. For here in SNE hail 15% wind 15% and tornado 2%. Will see if anything changes when this gets update around 9AM this morning.

    • Hadi says:

      Your up awfully early JJ

      • JimmyJames says:

        Hi Hadi…. I had trouble falling asleep last night so I was up I checked the SPC outlook for today and commented
        about here on the blog. I don’t see a big severe weather outbreak here in SNE but wouldn’t rule out a few of these
        storms to reach severe levels.

  19. Longshot says:

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    Answers later today.

  20. Old Salty says:

    SPC still has us in slight risk for severe, including a non-zero threat for tornadoes.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1406465433775

  21. Vicki says:

    Happy birthday Coastal :)

  22. Old Salty says:

    Now, where and what type of watches will be posted?

  23. Tom says:

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    Upper level spin over western Great Lakes, jet stream flow (strongly west to east) from the Great Lakes to New England, low level S-SW winds bringing in plenty of moisture …… should be an interesting day in the eastern third of the US.

  24. Old Salty says:

    Here are the 0Z Euro run APRWX Tornado Index

    18Z today

    http://i.imgur.com/azzz7KG.png

    12Z tomorrow

    http://i.imgur.com/LbkUz2u.png

  25. Old Salty says:

    Here is a severe weather site I found. In cast some are interested or don’t have this
    link, here it is:

    http://www.twisterdata.com/

  26. John says:

    Sunny here.

    • North says:

      Just got cloudy here. Looks like I may miss or just get the tail end of the showers/storms moving east northeast out of CT. Looks like you may miss it entirely.

  27. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Good morning all. :)
    Long day yesterday.
    3 beaches in 11 hours.
    It was awesome…

    Along my trip I took the following photograph, which when you see, you will immediately know who came to mind when I saw this while sitting at a long red light.

    I could not resist – was in the perfect position. No editing done to this photo.

    https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/t1.0-9/10525747_10152640879427265_2371630547453736989_n.jpg

  28. Tom says:

    At least on the Taunton NWS Radar, the echoes S and W of Boston seem to be intensifying a bit.

    • Old Salty says:

      At least I don’t see any rotation with them.
      Looks like I’m about to catch one of them. πŸ˜€

  29. Old Salty says:

    I just came in from some errands.

    The humidity is STIFLING!!!!

    As I sit at my computer I am sweating bullets!
    It’s AWEFUL!!!!

    No watches or warnings up anywhere yet. There is a mesoscale discussion for Va
    with 40% chance of issuance.

  30. Vicki says:

    Steady rain here for about 30 minutes. Just in time to cancel our luncheon plans but there will be other days.

  31. Old Salty says:

    And the RAIN commences here.
    NO Thunder and Lightning, yet anyway.

  32. Keith-Hingham says:

    Just started spitting here with some thunder but no lightning.

    • Vicki says:

      Hi Keith. Good to see you here. Can there be thunder w/o lightening?

      • Keith-Hingham says:

        Thanks Vicki….I was on vacation for almost a couple of weeks plus busy with several other things.

        Not sure about the answer to your question. I didn’t see any lightning but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any.

  33. Old Salty says:

    12Z CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km)

    Show dramatic atmospheric STABILIZATION at 18Z

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=012&fixhh=1&hh=006

  34. Longshot says:

    Raining steadily in Newton.

    Eastern Pacific busy with fish storms.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

    Atlantic may see a cyclone develop, but I give it a low chance. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  35. North says:

    By the way TK I like the Saturday Night Live title :)

  36. Old Salty says:

    SPC REMOVED moderate risk for severe.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1406478443350

    Still has some tornado risk

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif?1406478478770

    The above applies pretty much from now to 10AM tomorrow

  37. Old Salty says:

    hmmm

    Once this batch of nuisance rain get through, we have clearing, HIGHER humidity
    and an approaching front?????

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

  38. JimmyJames says:

    Couple downpours where I am. Now the sun is out and waiting to see what happens rest of the day.

  39. Woods Hill Weather says:

    I believe that substantial tongue of dry air may reduce the storm chances as we move through the day.

    The best activity may take place between dawn and noon Monday with one more shot at a late day line.

    Outta here for great weather by Tuesday, just in time for the 100th Anniversary fireworks display by my friends at Atlas down on the western side of the canal. :)

  40. WeatherWiz says:

    No way I can go on vacatiom tomorrow with this…unreal downpurs here.

  41. Vicki says:

    Some rain and distant thunder rolled through. Trying to brighten again. Haven’t been out to see if there was a change in temp. Enjoy the fireworks TK. Glad the weather will cooperate.

  42. Old Salty says:

    That tornado index the 0Z euro was showing, is gone on the 12Z run, except]
    for a little blip over central Ct for this PM.

  43. Emily says:

    The thunderstorm felt like it was INSIDE my house earlier. πŸ˜› That would have been messy…

  44. Old Salty says:

    SPS current mesoscale discussion

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1484.html

    Currenlty big storm out by Albany NY

    • Vicki says:

      I was watching that as it went over the Troy area. The warning now extends down toward Pittsfield.

  45. JimmyJames says:

    Possible tornado being investigated in Wolcott, CT which is just northeast of me which did damage to the field at Wolcott High School. This happened as the warm front was coming through. The thinking is an EF 0 tornado but of course NWS out of Upton, NY will have to investigate that.

  46. Old Salty says:

    SPC has removed slight change of severe from Boston area and SE MA for the rest of the day and overnight:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.gif?1406496274550

  47. Old Salty says:

    Upton NWS office is talking about:

    Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS)

    For tonight. Hmmm

  48. Old Salty says:

    I “think” I see rotation on the storm near Holyoke.

    • Old Salty says:

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE NOW IN A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DRIVERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOW VISIBILITY AND AVOID FLOODED ROADS.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      It was right in the most likely place for it.

  49. Longshot says:

    Answer to Today’s 1st & 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    The answer is B, 15 miles.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    The answer is C, 2000. Seems high to me, but OK. I went 0 for 2.

  50. Coastal says:

    Funnel over lake sebago.

  51. JimmyJames says:

    It has been confirmed EF 0 tornado did touch down in Wolcott, CT. It was on the ground for 100 yards. It was a quick spin up and no tornado warning was issued.

  52. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Blog updated!