The Week Ahead

6:41PM

This Summer’s weather could be a whole lot worse given the lack of high pressure ridging and the number of low pressure troughs coming through. We have seen temperatures not that far from normal overall, and despite some episodes of severe storms, we have not seen too much in the way of very nasty or excessively wet weather. And the coming week will be representative of the Summer up to this point – a bit of storminess, some great weather, and a lack of heat.

The stormy day will be Monday, because a low pressure area has to cut right across New England and this will bring many showers and some thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of some briefly severe storms, but widespread severe weather is unlikely as the timing of the activity will be before maximum  heating and other factors influencing severe storms and allowing them to form and sustain themselves will be mostly borderline. Nevertheless, keep an eye on current conditions during the day Monday should any severe storms develop.

The upper level trough responsible for sending Monday’s low pressure area through here is another one that is deeper than average, like the recent one, and will be hanging around the Great Lakes for a few days while slowly weakening. But dry air on the back side of the departing low Monday night will sweep into southeastern New England on Tuesday, which will be a very nice Summer day with lower humidity and mild air.

A weak area of high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday, keeping the weather fair, as the trough continues to weaken to the west and high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast. This type of set-up is a fair weather one with sea breezes in coastal areas.

Later in the week expect a slow weakening of the trough to the west to continue while a slow strengthening of high pressure takes place offshore. It does not evolve into the classic summertime Bermuda High set up at this point but is enough to bring generally fair and mild to warm weather for the end of the week, though a disturbance may try to get going between these upper level systems to bring at least some cloudiness to the region by next weekend, though so far it looks largely rain-free.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds push eastward across the region early then decrease for a while before increasing again from the southwest later. Showers/thunderstorms southwest of Boston before dawn. Areas of low clouds and fog forming as well. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, especially through midday then less so in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s coastal areas, around 80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Highs 72-79, coolest coast.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85, coolest coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Cape Cod showers? Lows 60-67. Highs 74-81, coolest coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms interior? Lows 61-68. Highs 77-84, coolest coast.

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338 Responses to The Week Ahead

  1. Longshot says:

    TK, thanks for update.

  2. Longshot says:

    Repost.

    Answer to Today’s 1st & 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    The answer is B, 15 miles.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    The answer is C, 2000. Seems high to me, but OK. I went 0 for 2.

  3. Vicki says:

    Thanks TK

  4. Coastal says:

    The storms in western mass are moving south east but the storms in southern Maine are moving north east. Why is that?

    • AceMaster says:

      lol, its new england, the weather never makes sense :)

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      The Maine storms are bring driven more by the mid/upper level steering winds and now that they are largely elevated storms this becomes the rule.

      The western MA into CT storms were a small cluster of right-moving super cells, which are storms that intensify so rapidly that the apparent motion cuts across the steering wind and the storm “turns right”. You will notice once these die out, or lose their base convection (updraft feed) the remaining precipitation will move a little more to the E or even NE in the higher level winds.

  5. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK.
    For those who did not see my post on the previous blog it has been confirmed that there was an EF 0 tornado in Wolcott, CT today. It happened just before 1pm today and had winds of 85mph. This was a quick spin up with no tornado warning issued.
    Got a storm heading toward the Coventry, CT area that is showing some weak rotation and wouldn’t surprise me if there is a quick spin up there as was the case earlier in Wolcott, CT.

  6. John says:

    Thanks tk .

  7. Old Salty says:

    JJ this is supposed to be the Wolcott tornado.

    Jim Cantore
    23 mins ·
    Wolcott, CT. 1pm today MT @StormTrooperJay: This says it all 4 me today…I’m still trembling after winessing this http://t.co/vTjH1waFYv

    StormTrooperJay
    ‏@StormTrooperJay
    This about says it all 4 me today…I’m still trembling after winessing this! @NWSNewYorkNY @JimCantore @DrGregForbes pic.twitter.com/cVBtkPYsV1

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtlomQUCYAAHse4.jpg

  8. JimmyJames says:

    Thankfully Old Salty no injuries or fatalities with this weak EF 0 Tornado in Wolcott today. We been mentioning it with the links you and I have been posting today and the past few days that there were some ingredients in place to have a spin up and we saw that happen today.

  9. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  10. Tom says:

    A sub 1,000 mb non tropical low in late July, wow !

    All the weather map is missing is the 540 thickness on its northwest flank.

  11. matt souza says:

    what do you think the weather for williamsburgh area and also virginia beach be like? heading there wednesday on through the following friday

    • Tom says:

      I think this pattern is supposed to hold for the next several days, so without specifics ….

      A little cooler than normal, more 80s days than 90s.

      Some days with humidity breaks, dewpoints under 70F, maybe even well under.

      Have a great trip Matt !!

      • matt souza says:

        thanks tom, last time we went down to virginia about 5 years ago, we were in a middle of a heat wave with 4 straight days in the 100s and upper 90s

    • Old Salty says:

      Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer)

      A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP mimics the original formulation presented by Thompson et al. (2003) by using fixed-layer calculations of vertical shear, and substitutes the surface lifted parcels as an alternative to the ML parcels in the “effective layer” version of STP.

      The index is formulated as follows:

      STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1000 m) * (SRH1/150 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1)

      A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

  12. Longshot says:

    I guess some NOAA Watch sites will be discontinued on 9/1/14.

    http://www.noaawatch.gov/

  13. John says:

    I’m betting boston will see little rain today.

  14. AceMaster says:

    This initial push of rain and storms this morning has really all but disappeared right over us. Its amazing to see really. Nothing more than just some very light isolated rain showers.

  15. Tom says:

    Tropics ….

    GFS, multiple runs in a row now, is featuring a system in the Atlantic.

    Not strong at all.

    With the anomalous pattern, featuring a decent western Atlantic ridge, anything that develops out there would be something to be aware of.

  16. Charlie says:

    Good morning, 1st day of late summer visits, we start Fall/Aeration overseedings Aug 25th, not much in the way of showers, have a good day :)

  17. Tom says:

    Decent mid summer surface low, very good dynamics, active morning warm front, high humidity in place ……

    Personally, feeling a bit concerned about the weather today and hope that New England doesnt see anything too severe.

  18. Old Salty says:

    Is it just I, or am I seeing some rotation on an intensifying storm down around
    Franklin or close to there?

  19. AceMaster says:

    Getting rather dark here in Walpole. Heavy rain shower beginning, NO thunder or lightning

  20. JimmyJames says:

    No slight risk for us today from the SPC but 5% hail and wind and 2% tornado.

  21. Old Salty says:

    This storm seems to be moving right up Rt. 16

    But the rotating part seems to be moving along rt. 109 or just a wee bit
    North of there. So between rt 109 and rt 16 for sure.

    • AceMaster says:

      That is just a few miles to the north of me right now. It is extrememly dark out and its pouring buckets. Severe Thunderstorm Warning just posted for this cell but i have yet to hear any thunder or lightning.

  22. Tom says:

    Well, its gotten the attention of Taunton, who has gone from nothing to a special weather statement to a severe thunderstorm warning on the cell in about a 5 minute timespan.

  23. AceMaster says:

    Popped up out of nowhere

  24. WeatherWiz says:

    Deluge in Woburn…like Biblical. Canceling vacation today I think.

  25. shotime says:

    Wow, did it just get dark in Brighton! Rain with thunder in the distance.

  26. AceMaster says:

    Watch out Boston, this cell is getting stronger and heading right for u

  27. Vicki says:

    Wow. And wow again. A bit late with that warning. Amazing booms and downpours.

    Is all rotation gone. I couldn’t turn anything on to check here

  28. Old Salty says:

    Roatation seems to have almost disappeared. I hope so.

    BIG crack of thunder! Vicious bolt of lightning.

    • Vicki says:

      Exactly what we had OS – I had just shut down computer (no warning at that point) when we had one huge crack followed by two more. The first had to have hit something.

      I also hope rotation is gone

  29. AceMaster says:

    Looks like it was 2 separate cells that have now merged and strengthened and are now sliding along the east side of Boston

  30. JimmyJames says:

    This may only be round one of strong to potentially severe storms. There could be round two this afternoon. Strong wind gusts and hail the primary threats although can’t rule out a weak isolated tornado as there are some ingredients in place for a quick spin up.

  31. coastal says:

    I received .02″ yesterday and another .02″ today.

  32. AceMaster says:

    And just like that, its over, lol

  33. John says:

    Pouring in boston thunder/ lightning. I was running a blower and got totally soaked.

    • Old Salty says:

      Yup, pouring buckets here.

      Only 2 cracks of thunder. Weird.

      • Old Salty says:

        not strong wind to speak of.

        • AceMaster says:

          The wind, oddly enough, will be behind the storm. It was dead calm this morning and now after that storm, the wind is strong. Low level clouds are flying along. I wonder if this increases chances for spin ups later today?

          • Old Salty says:

            I think so. But what do I know?

            I read a discussion from Upton yesterday
            where they said a Strong low level jet does
            contribute to chances of a spin up.

            We’ll have to see how much heating we get as
            the CAPE certainly contributes.

            We have many factors that could be contributing
            a bit later. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  34. Longshot says:

    Working downtown. Only heard 1 clap of thunder, but really raining hard for a few minutes; more moderate rain now.

  35. Vicki says:

    .6 so far with this cell and it is absolutely pouring again

  36. Old Salty says:

    I can’t believe how DARK it is.
    This had to rank right up there as the darkest I have ever seen
    during the daytime.

    • Vicki says:

      I was thinking the same and also why the lightning was so vivid even though it is daytime. Usually lightning is washed out in the day

  37. JimmyJames says:

    NWS out of Upton, NY take for today
    GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A
    FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
    STRENGTHENING WINDS UP THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ANY STRONGER
    UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS SUCH…AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
    DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS.

  38. Old Salty says:

    Actually had some wind a bit ago. Nothing earth shattering, perhaps
    30-40 mph at best. 😀

  39. coastal says:

    Peaks of sun in Norwood now. Does the sun help to destabilize the atmosphere or does drier air win out in eastern mass?

  40. AceMaster says:

    Cell about to hit Woburn. Looks almost like a little hook to the cell. Still some rotation in there on the southwest side?

    • Old Salty says:

      Honestly,

      I think the rotation is gone. I think it WAS there.

      I think we came REALLY close to a spin up or 2.
      Wonder IF one happened around the Milford, Holliston area
      earlier?

  41. Old Salty says:

    And AWAY she goes.

  42. shotime says:

    Storrow Drive must be flooded out by now!

  43. Old Salty says:

    I just saw an olive branch floating in the water.
    We’re SAVED!

  44. Old Salty says:

    Oh BOY!

    BIG TIME ROTATION now about to hit LYNN!!!!!!

  45. JimmyJames says:

    It looks like something is trying spin up with that cell.

  46. AceMaster says:

    Woburn and Lynn getting crushed right now. TK, whats it like there??

  47. WeatherWiz says:

    I am in Woburn…crushed is an understatement…garage is almost underwater. Been torrential for an hour non stop.

    • AceMaster says:

      Be safe WeatherWiz!

      • WeatherWiz says:

        Never seen anything like it…like buckets of rain non stop…just when you think it will end it gets worse. Bad start to vacation. Canceled going away today…everyone is bummed. Couldn’t have asked for a worse start.

  48. Old Salty says:

    Bright SUNSHINE here now.

    What will happen later?????

  49. Vicki says:

    Ace – OS – JJ – amazing that you all saw the rotating before the warning was issued.

    • Old Salty says:

      Just monitoring the radar, that is all.
      Have had some tutorials during TWC severe weather broadcasts.

      That one up by Lynn was exhibiting some fairly strong rotation.
      Would NOT surprise me to see reports of a tornado in that area.

      Sometimes, that rotation is aloft and never makes it to the ground.
      Sometimes, it is an indication that it is on the ground.

  50. Old Salty says:

    I’m sorry, but the set up for this afternoon looks downright
    Dangerous to me. What am I missing?????

  51. Old Salty says:

    12Z NAM has CAPE of between 1,000 and 2,000 Joules between
    2 and 4 PM this afternoon.

    Waiting on the other site to check out LI and EHI.

    That’s enough instability when the other parameters are factored in.

    We shall see.

  52. JimmyJames says:

    If there was a tornado up there probably a weak EF 0 EF1.
    Its cloudy and drizzling where I am in CT and unless this changes I am not going to have to worry about big thunderstorms where I am.

  53. Vicki says:

    It seems that cell is weakening? I have friends in Kennebunkport and wanted to let them know if there could be a potential tornado or even severe tstorm threat. Thanks!

    OS – I was half asleep but think it was JR on 7 this morning who said the sun would fuel the storms this PM. I’m hoping it is not as bad as it looks to you right now.

    • Old Salty says:

      I don’t see any rotation on that storm at the current time. Doesn’t mean
      it can’t reoccur. Right now, it just looks like what we saw earlier, perhaps
      a wee bit less intense. Just watch it on radar.

      re: This afternoon.

      I’m concerned, but if you listen to my wife, she thinks I jump on “possible”
      events too quickly. We’ll keep watching, but yes, I think we could get
      some severe weather this afternoon.

      Matt Noyes was so concerned about today, that he cancelled a day trip
      to the Cape.

  54. AceMaster says:

    From Eric Fisher…

    Eric Fisher says “Based on damage photos and radar, extremely likely that a ‪#‎tornado‬ touched down in Revere this morning.”

  55. JimmyJames says:

    Vicki on thunderstorm days I call sunshine self destructing sunshine since that will further destablize the atmosphere. There is plenty of instability for thunderstorm development.
    Interesting NWS out of Albany which covers my county in CT is mentioning my county for the best chance for severe weather today. Unless that sun comes out and this drizzle stops I don’t see that happening.

  56. WeatherWiz says:

    So in Woburn…what does this afternoon hold for weather? I don’t want to leave my house if there is a risk of what happened earlier today.

    • Old Salty says:

      I’d say, stick around.
      I really think we’re in for a ROUND 2 later on.

      We shall see.

      If it does NOT materialize, you were being cautious.

      What’s the old saying, better safe than sorry?

      • WeatherWiz says:

        What timeframe do you think?

      • AceMaster says:

        I agree OS. And JJ, i know sunshine will help to increase the chances of more storms later, but this morning proved the atmosphere is already primed. There was just little if any sunshine yesterday and this morning and we ended up with severe weather. I think we get more with or without the sun today

        • WeatherWiz says:

          Might send the wife and kids up (North Conway) and I could drive up later tonight so we aren’t all sitting around.

        • JimmyJames says:

          The environment must be one up there with a high shear. We had that last July in CT when
          we had two EF 1 tornadoes touch down on the same day and there was no sunshine.

  57. Old Salty says:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    5 mins ·
    NWS Meteorologists are on scene in Revere, MA investigating the possible tornado. Survey information will be made available this afternoon.

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    1 min ·
    RT @reverepolice: Responding to a collapsed roof and multiple possible gas leaks. If your CO alarm is going off, call 911 immediately!

    Did anyone see the InstaGram VIDEO Eric Fisher posted.

    Absolutely Awe Inspiring. Graphically shows the power of this storm.
    I can’t post it. I’ll keep trying. Perhaps the person put it on you tube. I’ll check

    I’m 99.99% certain this was a tornado!!!

  58. AceMaster says:

    Car overturned in Revere. Look at the sky from the departing storm. Very eerie

    https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/t1.0-9/10561838_10152606000694445_7238147793176368140_n.jpg

  59. Old Salty says:

    VICKI,

    Storm has completely weakened to the NorthEast.
    I don’t think your friends in Maine are in any danger.

  60. Old Salty says:

    VERY BRIGHT SUNSHINE HERE!!!!

    • JimmyJames says:

      That will only make an unstable atmosphere more unstable.
      Looking at those pictures that have been posted here no doubt in my mind that was a tornado touchdown. Will be interested
      to see what the rating on it is.

      • Old Salty says:

        I’m betting it is an EF2.

        Let’s see.

        With that rotation on radar, (Strongest rotation around here I have witnessed since I have been monitoring Nexrad)

        NO WAY this comes back as a Micro Burst. No Way

  61. WeatherWiz says:

    Curious about the storms later today…I don’t see anything on radar unless it is pivoting from out west?

  62. Old Salty says:

    For anyone interested, JJ?

    Here is a link to video of the Wolcott, CT tornado yesterday

    http://wxedge.com/articles/20140727confirmed_tornado_in_wolcott_exclusive_video

  63. Vicki says:

    Clouding up here with breaks of blue sky

  64. Old Salty says:

    Retweeted by Eric Fisher
    Carl Stevens @carlwbz · 17m
    The damage in revere is terrible. Residents never seen anything like They’reconvinced it was a tornado.#wbz

  65. Charlie says:

    Suns out here, judging by the blog the storms were bad, we had a 2 min downpour but went right back to work, didn’t even see lightening, picked up .12 lol

    Wonder if these afternoon storms will go poof again, any bets?

    • Hadi says:

      Tell that to the people of Revere Charlie. And my wife who was stuck in a nasty line in Needham with cars getting stuck in flooding and trees down all around her.

      • Vicki says:

        Some flooding in Framingham as well – haven’t had a chance to see if damage but certainly nothing that compares to the mess they are seeing in REvere. The news mentioned partial business collapse along with roofs. Not sure of accuracy. So far have not heard any injuries.

        We had 1.04 rain in a bit less than an hour

      • Old Salty says:

        Amen Hadi!

  66. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Old Salty for the link. Clearly the POSSIBLE tornado in Revere was stronger than the one that hit Wolcott, CT yesterday afternoon. Hopefully no more tornado touch downs across SNE today.
    The SREF model with its tornado ingredients was spot on.

  67. Vicki says:

    The clouds sure are moving by very quickly

  68. Tom says:

    Yikes, hope things aren’t too bad in Revere !

  69. Vicki says:

    Not sure if this storm photo link will work or if someone has posted it already
    http://boston.cbslocal.com/photo-galleries/2014/07/28/july-28-severe-storm-photos/

  70. JimmyJames says:

    I got sunshine now out where I am. Big swirl around western NY and will see what kind of thunderstorm activity we get when this swirl pivots this way.

  71. Tom says:

    I had to run errands at 9:30am.

    When I left, it was a severe thunderstorm just west of Boston and the rotation on dopplar had, for the moment, stopped.

    What happened ?? The storm must have re-strengthened from that point …….. Did Revere get much notice ?

    • Old Salty says:

      Tom,

      Virtually none. NWS put out a warning, but I think the damage was
      done by the time it went up.

      Check a post above I made showing strong rotation. I posted BEFORE
      NWS posted a warning.

    • Vicki says:

      ok – the one who knows the least will go first so you can move to those who know more

      It seemed to me that the two cells (one over our area and one a bit later east of us) merged. Ace, JJ, OS all saw the rotation before the warning went out.

      Just my opinion – OS saw rotating in the cell before it reached here (in Franklin) and when I shut down which was when the huge booms began, there was still not warning here at all for Tstorms. It seemed to me the warnings were coming late.

  72. John says:

    Crazy morning all around. Many problems flooding here made the morning fly by.

  73. WeatherWiz says:

    Sent the wife and kids to NH…going to stick around until Round 2 (if it happens). No one is happy at this point…

  74. Old Salty says:

    Check out this channel 4 video.

    This looks like an EF2 to me. Not a 3, but too much damage for a or 1

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/live-video/

  75. Charlie says:

    Heading to Richmond Virginia later this week to watch joint practice, can’t wait!! Hadi have u ever been there?

  76. Old Salty says:

    From Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 6m
    SkyEye showing some major structural damage in Revere.

  77. JimmyJames says:

    If you got structural damage that is the type of damage you get with an EF2 tornado.

  78. Hadi says:

    NWS confirming a Tornado touched down, no report on strength yet.

  79. Old Salty says:

    Eric Fisher says at LEAST an EF1. I still say a 2.

    Also Eric states:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 1m
    Round 2 of severe storms on the way this afternoon. In highly sheared environment, these too could feature rotation/tornado threat.

  80. Tom says:

    Surface temps at noon hitting 80F in many locales, decent amts of sun as well.

  81. JimmyJames says:

    2% tornado chance up according to SPC but as we have seen even though that is a low threat for a tornado it is still possible.

  82. Tom says:

    SE Vt and SW New Hampshire starting to see showers/storms pop.

  83. Tom says:

    Maybe this is right, maybe its wrong ….. But …..

    I think ch. 4 is back to regular programming and is usually in 3rd place in the ratings …

    How can you be back to regular programming ?????

    A tornado with decent damage has just hit a nearby town ……. What are they thinking ????

  84. coastal says:

    Can someone post the HRRR?

  85. Joshua says:

    Summer of 2014 is certainly interesting from a meteorological point-of-view. Remember how warm and dry it was in Western Europe in March, April, and May. Well, that’s a distant memory. My guess is July temps overall will turn out cooler than May in the Netherlands. That’s rare, even in a place that is known for its nice springs and disappointing summers. They’re having major issues with rain this month. Here are some images captured today across Holland:

    http://nos.nl/op3/artikel/680200-in-beeld-het-regent-hard-heel-hard.html

    We know about the snow (5-10cm of accumulating snow) in the Urals, which was unprecedented. That is, at the relatively low altitudes at which the snow was accumulating, accumulating snow had not been recorded in July.

    Northern Canada continues its much cooler than normal trend.

    And the upper mid-west has just been cool all spring and summer. Relentless onslaughts of cooler than normal air continue to invade Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin.

    Here it’s been a ho-hum summer, with nothing out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, I’m very curious to see the numbers posted at the end of August for the summer of 2014 across the Northern Hemisphere.

    • Philip says:

      I wish some of that cooler than normal air would invade SNE although I suppose it has in modified form. I would love to get away w/o a heat wave for once this summer but I can’t recall it ever happening in my lifetime. Even the summer of 2009 had at least one IIRC.

      • Joshua says:

        The cold fronts are modified or moderated by the time they get here. We’ve seen that pattern repeat itself several times this summer. Remember the hype re: the polar vortex in July? Well, it certainly got cold/cool in the upper mid-west (they’re getting it again now), but that really didn’t impact us that much. This said, with our prevailing wind being a west-southwesterly and with temps to our west and southwest being below normal for the most part, I do think that this has dimmed the prospects of sustained heat. I’ll be up on top of Mt. Washington for 1 week volunteering. I’ll let you all know what the meteorologists are saying up there.

        • Hadi says:

          Even with such a pattern we are actually right on average for temps. Overall i think this summer has been really good overall.

      • AceMaster says:

        As far as I know, we haven’t had one yet, at least in SE MA.

  86. Hadi says:

    I will keep posting the get together info for all to see. We are meeting 8/21 at 7:30 at JP licks at Legacy place in dedham. Anyone please join!!

  87. AceMaster says:

    Current activity way to the far north and west. Big question is will it make it east or stay out there for the afternoon.

  88. Old Salty says:

    SPC still does NOT have us in a risk zone. However, still has us in a 2% risk of tornadoes
    zone???

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif?1406570064401

    • Vicki says:

      How can we not be in a risk zone and be in a 2% tornado zone or is that a silly question.

      • Old Salty says:

        It’s not a silly question and we have discussed that here before.
        They do that all of the time.

        It would be so isolated that they don’t feel it is in the risk zone.

        They put the 2% out there to cover their rosy red asses. 😀

  89. Old Salty says:

    Eric FisherVerified account
    ‏@ericfisher
    Per @NWSBoston – this is the 1st confirmed #tornado in Suffolk County, MA since at least 1950 (when records began). #climate

  90. Old Salty says:

    Look at this SPIN in the atmosphere. WOW!

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

  91. Old Salty says:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUS HOISTED FOR OUR AREA:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0452.html

    • Keith-Hingham says:

      You beat me to it :)

    • Old Salty says:

      This one is pretty strongly worded from the SPC:

      * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
      800 PM EDT.

      * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
      SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
      INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
      ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
      A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

  92. Keith-Hingham says:

    Severe T Storm watch has been posted for most of Massachusetts execept SE and Cape Cod.

  93. coastal says:

    What are the chances of the Hanover/Hingham Area getting there first thunderstorm since January today?

  94. Old Salty says:

    OK, convection beginning to fire it Central CT. First signs of Action for us.
    We’ll keep watching.

  95. WeatherWiz says:

    Can you guys do me a favor since I am not near my laptop? Can you keep me updated by replying under here about any threats to Woburn? Thanks.

    • Old Salty says:

      Woburn is SMACK in the middle of the Severe Thunderstorm watch area.
      Check out the SREF maps I just posted.

      Buckle up and get ready for the ride.

      Something is going to happen somewhere in our area.

      Is Woburn in the cross hairs? Who knows, but it is just as vunerable
      as any other community.

  96. Old Salty says:

    Latest 9Z SREF

    Significant tornado ingredients

    18Z
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f006.gif
    21Z
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f009.gif

    Significant tornado parameter 18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    HELICITY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    Given this, the SPC watch and what Eric Fisher stated, I would venture that
    some place in SNE gets a tornado this afternoon. The atmosphere is PRIMED
    for it.

  97. Old Salty says:

    Some convection is beginning in the Worcester Hills. It begins.

    HOLD ON.

  98. JimmyJames says:

    My county is not under a severe thunderstorm watch in CT while the three other northern counties are. The sun has been out for a few hours only adding to an already unstable environment. This whole system has to pivot through and will be interesting to see how this interacts with an already unstable environment.

    • Old Salty says:

      Somewhere in SNE a tornado will drop this afternoon and It won’t necessarily be an EF0 or EF1. It could be an EF2 or worse and that is what concerns me.

      • JimmyJames says:

        SREF model has been very good when picking up on these tornado ingredients. We saw the tornado in Wolcott yesterday
        and a stronger tornado hit Revere earlier today.

        • Old Salty says:

          It has been amazingly good, hasn’t it?

          I’m always concerned when the SREF signifcant tornado ingredients shows the area in a bulls eye, whether it be
          the 5% or in this case today, the 15%.

  99. John says:

    Coastal the storms this summer just seem to skip over us.

    • coastal says:

      Forecast for our area from the NWS:

      Detailed Forecast
      This Afternoon Partly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind around 13 mph.
      Tonight Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph.
      Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind around 8 mph.

      Not a drop of rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  100. Scott77 says:

    Given the parameters why aren’t we under a tornado watch???

    • JimmyJames says:

      SPC doesn’t feel tornadoes are the biggest threat here. With that said you can never rule out a tornado but the chance is low
      so they the SPC doesn’t feel a tornado watch is necessary.

    • Old Salty says:

      I think it is because the SPC would like to see HIGHER probabilities before issuing a watch. According to them we are in a 2% prob area. Typically
      they like to see at least 5% and sometimes higher.

      I think IF it were up to me, I’d hoist the watch, especially where we
      already had one this morning WITHOUT the benefit of the sun’s heating.

      • Scott77 says:

        Yep just seems like it would be warranted without a doubt.

      • Vicki says:

        And without the benefit of a warning prior to the event – or just barely prior. I’d think they’d want to be cautious. But then I think most people are a bit nervous now so will watch anyhow

  101. Tom says:

    NYC has dewpoint in low 60s. Philly dewpoint at 60F. Both have W-SW surface winds.

    I think the radar watching has to begin in western and central CT, where the cold front must be.

    The area I think to watch is Hartford to Worcester to the Merrimack Valley, northeastward to the seacoast of NH.

    • Old Salty says:

      I think the action area sneaks into Boston. Just my thoughts.

      Not much farther East or South.

  102. Old Salty says:

    From Eric Fisher

    Eric FisherVerified account
    ‏@ericfisher
    I’m in Revere…some pretty remarkable damage. Awaiting NWS survey results.

    • Vicki says:

      I have to figure twitter out….I really like Eric

      • AceMaster says:

        Even if u dont have Twitter, u can just save his Twitter page for viewing anytime like u would any webpage. You just wont be able to comment or tweet at him. I do that all the time and i dont have a Twitter account.

  103. AceMaster says:

    So far everything is staying west of a Hartford to Worcester line

  104. Old Salty says:

    Sorry to bombard, but this was compelling. Another photo of damage.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/t1.0-9/10557457_10152586861233258_4046650657100984095_n.jpg

    The NWS should have been able to rate the intensity by now!!!!

  105. JimmyJames says:

    Looking at the pictures from what I have seen on tv and what has been posted here on the blog I would say EF 2 damage.
    No severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings as of now in SNE but they may change.

    • Old Salty says:

      JJ, I agree totally. Sure looks like EF2 damage to me.
      I am still waiting for the announcement.

  106. Old Salty says:

    From Taunton NWS office:

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    *** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

    LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT INSTABILITY…EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

  107. Old Salty says:

    Ok here’s the tally.

    3 of us here, myself, JJ, and Acemaster agree that this morning’s Revere Tornado
    was an EF2. Let’s see IF we are correct. Let’s see how much we know or think we know.

    • Old Salty says:

      That is a great graphic Ace. Many thanks

      Based on that, it was Border line high end EF1 or low end Ef2.

      I’m still going with EF2, because that is what my gut says.

      On the Springfield one, many people were saying EF2, and based on what I saw I was saying EF3 and it turned out to be EF3.

      We shall see.

      • Vicki says:

        My thoughts were the same, OS – very close to EF1/EF2 line. But they may see more damage than we do.

        I believe the Worcester tornado was eventually moved up a level at some point which is a random thought.

  108. JimmyJames says:

    Watch for any of those discrete cells the environment is there just like we saw today and yesterday for those to POTENTIALLY rotate.

  109. Old Salty says:

    FYI
    Matt Noyes still thinks line of Strong to severe storms march right to Boston
    later this afternoon. ?????

  110. Old Salty says:

    This video is not super impressive and I don’t know if this was the beginning
    or the end, but it does capture something.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlxlSWIwpb4

  111. Old Salty says:

    With this one, there is no doubt it was a tornado as you can see the wind
    first come from one direction and then the opposite direction.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vJnDj72Ekg

    This video is pretty amateurish, however, IF you look carefully, I you can
    see the tornado on the ground. That is pretty damn impressive.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1B2JD2c_UY

    • Old Salty says:

      Ahhh. Sorry
      Just realized that last one was dated in another year. I am so sorry.
      Just trying to get good stuff for us.

    • Tom says:

      The first link, what caught my attention is also how hard its raining !

      Here the term, rain wrapped tornado, but its always been difficult for me to kind of visualize that. No longer.

  112. Tom says:

    Tornado warning for a cell west of Portland, ME. Inland, perhaps 20 or 30 miles west.

  113. Vicki says:

    Severe Tstorm warning out from CT line northeast to worcester

    • Vicki says:

      he National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a

      * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… northeastern Worcester County in central Massachusetts… northwestern Middlesex County in northeast Massachusetts… south central Hillsborough County in southern New Hampshire…

      * until 500 PM EDT

      * at 417 PM EDT…Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located over Princeton…or 7 miles southwest of Leominster…and was moving northeast at 30 mph.

      * Some locations impacted include… Lowell…Nashua…Leominster…Fitchburg…Chelmsford…Westford… Gardner…Holden…Milford…Pepperell…Tyngsborough…Groton… Lunenburg…Townsend…Littleton…Lancaster…Rutland… Sterling…Hollis and West Boylston.

      • Tom says:

        3 different ones.

        I am not looking at a dopplar radar, but the cell NNW of Springfield is the one I think looks the worst.

        • Vicki says:

          Just saw that too – the warnings span a good portion of the western 2/3 of the state from CT to NH

  114. Old Salty says:

    Really heating up out there.

    I am beginning to think that Tom may be correct. The axis of activity
    may not quite get to Eastern sections, but we’ll continue to monitor.

    Btw, was just checking Harvey Leondard’s twitter account.

    Sorry, but Eric’s reporting was HANDS DOWN FAR SUPERIOR!!!

    • Tom says:

      and I was just about to report that the clouds here have gotten a bit more convective looking. :) :) :)

      A few hrs ago, they were all stratus cumulus and now the tops seem to be getting taller.

      Also, looks like a line of storms with a bit more eastward movement are on the NY State border with both MA and CT.

      • Old Salty says:

        Agree.
        They’re moving along the bottom of the upper low and thus
        have a more Easterly trajectory for now. As they move
        Eastward, the trajectory will become more Northeasterly.
        I think, anyway. 😀

  115. Old Salty says:

    That storm crossing from CT into MA East of Springfield and SW of Worcester
    shows signs of rotation.

  116. Vicki says:

    Tornado warning with cell moving to spencer

  117. JimmyJames says:

    This is a doppler radar indicated tornado moving to the northeast.

  118. Vicki says:

    Eric F – thanks everyone for telling me about his twitter and how to access it

    Rotation has tightened even more on latest scan. In Spencer seek shelter now! Moving NE at 25mph

    • Tom says:

      I’m sure some in this current warning area must have seen what happened in Revere and though there’s nothing to assume/project from the earlier event, I’d think people must be very, very nervous.

      • Vicki says:

        I know I would be. Just seeing the warning box made me nervous. My Uxbridge child had stopped in Milford on her way home from Hopkinton and I called and suggested she go home…..immediately but safely

  119. tj says:

    EF-2 tornado confirmed Revere

  120. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Hi all!
    As you can imagine, busy day for me.
    I’m around, will be posting a bit more later!

    • Old Salty says:

      Missed you today.
      We all tried to fill in.

      Did you get over to Revere yourself? Curious.

  121. Old Salty says:

    Tornado warning has expired or has been taken down.

    Waiting on the next one as I assume there will be one.

  122. Tom says:

    Glad to see that tornado warning expired !!

    Looks like these (mini supercells ??) are ahead of a more solid line of storms in western Mass/CT, actually making more eastward progress.

    Stepping outside to cook our dinner. :)

  123. JimmyJames says:

    Don’t see the tornado warning up anymore which is good but still that area that had the tornado warning still under a severe thunderstorm warning. Hopefully nothing touch down but I would still keep an eye on that cell if I was in the warned area.

  124. Vicki says:

    Clouds building here

  125. Old Salty says:

    We may not be out of the woods just yet.

    Look at this display and note a cell popping up over Long Island Sound.
    This tells me that more convection WILL take place and move on a trajectory to
    hit more Eastern sections of RI and MA.

    We shall see.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX

  126. Coastal says:

    Many storms have travels SW to NE this summer rather than NW to SE.

  127. Old Salty says:

    Something is up with that storm just north of the Quabbin.

  128. Vicki says:

    Oddly my radars both have the tornado warning expiring in 9 minutes

  129. Vicki says:

    When have we had to get electric wires from the pole to our house? That’s what they told people in revere.

  130. John says:

    It was an ef2 that dropped back to an Ef1. Wind speed measured at 120. That’s what wbz radio is saying frow NWS. So ef2 to start than fell back to ef1.

  131. matt souza says:

    wow, i had the best seats on the 12 floor ellison mass general, i was delivering mail, looked outside the window and it was pretty much dark outside. looking right towards revere. Did not see a tornado probably because of all the rain that was falling but i saw how fast those clouds were moving. They were booking it. saw lightning as well.
    When i went home. i was on the train, when we got off at north billeria station, saw the dark clouds to the west. next thing we knew, lightning,thunder and lots of wind, no rain at first then the rain came, clouds were booking it then as well. and then it rained and there was sun shining. Great weather day 😀

    • matt souza says:

      also the fact that the storm at north billerica , the darker clouds were moving around a center location but the rotation of the clouds were not throughout.

  132. Longshot says:

    Trying to get its act together.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  133. Hadi says:

    Things are wrapping up and a beautiful stretch of weather coming up.

  134. AceMaster says:

    Well, thats all folks. We get a tornado when theres no watch at all, and we get next to nothing when the whole area is under a watch. Gotta love NE! Ok another note, my heart goes out to everyone affected by the tornado

  135. Longshot says:

    Newton = dark and ominous. Raining at Sox game.

  136. Old Salty says:

    Last shower just coming through. No thunder or lightning.
    NO ROTATION. 😀

    That’s all folks.

    • Vicki says:

      Good perspective Tom. And phew. Not to diminish the awful destruction in revere but if it had hit Boston…..

      • Tom says:

        Well, the story on the post above is ……

        I was watching the Red Sox and as usual this season, they are losing.

        So, I briefly changed to the weather channel, which has a show on right now about “what would happen is a tornado touched down in Miami Beach, FL”.

        And it got me thinking, how close is Revere to Boston and so, I googled ………

        • Vicki says:

          Good thinking and it really is scary. Youngest asked me relation of Boston and revere earlier and liked your post too

  137. SClarke says:

    We had a little league game in Barre tonight. The game started at 5:30. At 5:40 the rain started. At 5:45 there was nearby lightning.

    They called the game for 15 minutes. By then the rain stopped and they tried to clean up the field. Just as they had the field ready, another downpour started and ended the game.

    • Vicki says:

      Isn’t barre right around where the tornado threat was quite real for spencer ? Glad you are ok. And I’d love to watch a little league game around here. We really enjoy the little league World Series.

  138. Charlie says:

    1st official day of football practice at na and other schools, I was at na talking with coaches, humidity has decreased and it’s breezy, nice night for football, goodnight all :)

  139. Woods Hill Weather says:

    I did not go to Revere. I figured I’d stay out of the area that was already congested enough with crews / reporters / etc.

    A friend of mine was with the NWS though during the survey.

    Just relaxing a bit now but going to update the blog shortly. :)

  140. Hadi says:

    You can feel the humidity getting sucked away

  141. JimmyJames says:

    A much more comfortable airmass coming in and its looks to be a great last three days of July.

  142. Hadi says:

    It’s pretty remarkable that we just witnessed history this morning.

    • Old Salty says:

      It was amazing, absolutely amazing. I watched that go through.
      It didn’t look right to me. It looked like something was up.

      Sure was.

      I still can’t believe how SLOW the NWS was to issue a WARNING!

      Too slow in my opinion.

      • Vicki says:

        There was what appeared to be some back peddling on 4 tonight. Don’t know who introduced Eric but he and Eric had a conversation about how there was no warning. I’m paraphrasing and I understand that it is management driven but even mac thought it was obvious.

        A warning should have been issued even here earlier and certainly in revere. If nothing else I hope they learn and don’t make excuses

        • Vicki says:

          I should add that mac thought it was obvious perhaps because he listened to me rant all day about it :)

      • Old Salty says:

        This was availbe BEFORE the warning.
        Pretty clear cut that something was going on there!!!!

        http://i.imgur.com/cMZG7qm.png

  143. Hadi says:

    DP down to 65 from 72 in just a couple hours.

  144. Charlie says:

    Beautiful night tonight dew point down to 63

  145. Old Salty says:

    I did save the Radial Velocity Radar image before the warning went out.

    Here it is. I have circled the rotation. Save this!

    http://i.imgur.com/yqRWy0g.png

  146. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Blog is updated!