High Suppressor

126 Comments

4:05PM

High pressure centered over to north of the southern New England region will keep a series of weak lows  suppressed far enough to the south to not bring any wet weather  to the area, other than perhaps the South Coast and Cape Cod for a brief time around the weekend. The evolution of the pattern will eventually send an upper level low pressure area south to east of the region by Sunday-Monday before it wanders away after that and a high pressure ridge rebuilds over the Northeast. This may allow some Summer warmth to finally invade the region, but you’ll need patience to get there, with a cooler trend for the next several days first.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Clear but patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows 45-50 sheltered valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy coastal and valley fog. Lows from around 50 interior valleys to around 60 coast and urban areas.  Wind light SE to E.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, coolest again coast. Wind light SE to E.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 70.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 54. High 72.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 85.

126 thoughts on “High Suppressor”

  4. Just curious – will there be any other lady bloggers like me on Thurs. night? I’m still not sure if I will go yet.

  5. The trees also are enjoying this wonderful summer so far as well. Usually by now, there are some trees that are either in distress with (green) leaves falling out, or already in “fall” mode (red, yellow, orange). From what I can tell, the trees right now appear still quite lush and green with no distress and no premature fall colors. 🙂

  6. Any chance we could get some pictures of the night out posted on here so I can see what people look like, just curious.

      1. It would be nice to see who I’m talking to but no worries if people don’t want too, I’m not on Facebook.

          1. Oh and the John Lennon style glasses were only because I couldn’t find my laser shield. Next best thing. 😉

  7. I don’t believe it has been posted here yet, but long tme announcer Don Pardo (of Saturday Night Live) has died at the age of 96. 🙁

    I didn’t know this before, but Don Pardo announced live on NBC that President Kennedy was killed in Dallas similar to what Walter Chronkite did on CBS on 11/22/1963.

    Also Don Pardo had a lifetime contract with NBC. It will be interesting to see who takes his place on SNL. 🙁

  8. OS, check out the GFS 12z and 18z showing a low coming into California off the pacific from the southwest next Friday….not a usual occurance in the summer.

    1. Yup. I see that. Not totally unusual for August. I’ve certainly seen it before.
      But for sure it doesn’t happen often. Notice how the Desert eats it up. 😀

  10. Thanks TK.

    Sadly I won’t be able to join everyone thurs. Work and life in general are a bit nuts. But right now nuts is a good thing.

    1. Vicki – yes on the puppy! He turns 7 months next week and ‘we’ start obedience training tomorrow night. Really looking forward to fall/winter walks again.

          1. We had a black and tan cocker before Rascal – she looked like a raisin when born so the kids named her Raisin. And Rascal lives up to his name 🙂 Sadly, we think he may be close to leaving us 🙁

  12. Last evening’s 0Z CMC run for our tropical system. My how things change in
    12 hours!!!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=228&fixhh=1&hh=240

    06Z GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

    Think there’s any divergence there?????????????? 😆

    The Euro hasn’t even sniffed it yet.

    NHC gives this system 50% chance of developing.

    hmm CMC gives it 100% chance. 😀 😀 😀

    1. There is a pretty sharp trough, currently NOT progged to pull this thing
      our way. However, this is 10 days out. Should that trough be SHARPER, well
      then…..

      This needs to be watched.

      Yes, I know it could still go poof, but something to watch none-the-less. 😀

  13. So far these waves have had a tough time surviving the trip since there has been a lot of dry air in the Atlantic. You can’t get anything to form with dry air in place. So far only two named storms both have become hurricanes but Arthur did make a landfall as a category 2 in the Outer Banks.

    1. I think this one makes it and becomes Cristobal.

      Eventual track is up for grabs, but “could” include New England.

    2. This wave is pretty much BEYOND the Saharan Sandman and entering
      a region of low shear, which “should” allow it to develop into the next
      named Atlantic tropical system. Where is goes from there is anyone’s guess.
      As it approaches and crosses the Islands, does it turn LEFT or RIGHT?
      I guess it depends upon whether the system is a Democrat or a Republican. 😆

  14. Other than seeing if something develops in the Atlantic this boring weather theme continues along with this September feel in August. I have this feeling were going to get one blast of big time heat and humidity before summers ends. Summer rarely goes quietly just like winter.

      1. There r not many people that I’ve ran into that r ready for summer to be over, many r still waiting, and many r not very happy, on this blog sure most r waiting for the 1st snow lol but most would rather have hhh than even mentioning any cold or w##%%%, hoping for a mild fall and mild winter followed by a cooler spring followed by a mild summer, good day os 🙂

        1. Who’s hoping for snow? I haven’t read one person say that. I want this to continue until nov and then bring on winter. How can anyone not be happy with weather?

          1. I love snow and love hearing the word and always look forward to the idea of it but I absolutely love this summer and am in no hurry to have it end. I would challenge anyone to say they do not love today. It is absolutely glorious.

      1. Next week is going to get warm I believe. Like I said before nothing would be better than to end summer with a warm labor day weekend. The kind where beaches packed, ice cream lines down the street etc. now raft would be cool.

        1. John,
          I would agree with you 100% if I had young children
          and interested in going to the beach. Where I’m at in
          my life, let Summer go out with a Whimper…. 😆

          1. Let’s Face it, LABOR DAY is the END of SUMMER.
            Sure it officially ends what 9/20. What a joke that is.

              1. Yes, John. It has been one of the best in memory for her weatherwise. 😀

                Only a few days we needed the AC.

        3. That’s ok it will not feel like mid summer, it’s kinda like when it only reaches the 30’s in March as supposed to jan, different sun angle etc etc the sun angle now is like mid April already 🙂

  15. My wife and kids are heading to Damascotta lake in Maine and they so excited. Weather is perfect for that, temp up there right now is 77. They are up there for the week visiting the grandparents. Too hot and everyone complains.

    1. Heading to friends this PM to enjoy their beautiful pool. I have not
      decided whether or not I’ll enter the water. I like to be comfortable when
      I get out of the water. IF I think I’ll be cold upon exiting the Water, then
      I WON’T BOTHER going in. Yup it’s that simple.

      NWS indicated Low to Mid 80s today back from the coast and we’ll be back
      from the coast. 😀 Mid 80s is PERFECT!!!

  16. Rainshine…I will be there tomorrow night so I hope to see you. And Vicki…I am praying extra hard you are able to join us.

  17. Boston’s hottest temp of the season may still be yet to come. In fact I think it had not occurred yet.

          1. yes, I definitely hear you regarding the expense.

            For the money spent, I’d rather take my kids to Canobie Lake Park or something like that.

  19. I’m watching the current 12z operational run of the EURO come out ……..

    I remember back to the 1st week of July, the operational run of the EURO excelled even 8-10 days out with forecasting one of the huge, deep trofs that affected the US. It never wavered, it was remarkable how accurate its 196-240 hr projection of that trof ended up being.

    Well, it is, in my opinion, wavering like crazy in the current time period. One day its a trof, the next a ridge. Its been doing this now for a while.

    Its why many days ago, there were hints in the weather world about some warmth finally coming in mid August to the eastern US and, save for south of 35N latitude, it hasn’t really worked out.

    1. Thanks Tom. Very interesting. I’m wondering if the EURO is the source of the idea for some warmth coming in here in Sept. If it is, i wouldn’t count on it given its instability. I really hope the EURO isn’t this bad going into this winter.

    2. Thanks Tom. Very interesting. I’m wondering if the EURO is the source of the idea for some warmth coming in here in Sept. If it is, i wouldn’t count on it given its instability. I really hope the EURO isn’t this bad going into this winter.

      2. I think it may be or have been, possibly projecting a pattern change.

        To illustrate the point I’m making above, about 8 days ago, which would have been last Tuesday, the 12th, I’m 99% sure that on Harvey Leonard’s 7 day forecast, his forecast was for 84F this past Monday and 88F Tuesday.

        I’m not bashing Harvey, based on what the EURO was selling long range at that point, those temps were a realistic projection.

        Of course, that warm surge never came to fruition.

        1. I also recall TK forecasting mid to upper 80s for the beginning of this week. I remember saying 7 days before when the forecast came out, boy its gonna heat up early next week

          1. I should point out that not just Harvey and TK had that, most if not all mets had that and i suspect its what the euro was showing at the time

  20. It’s been a busy day (actually week or so) with lots of running around. Husband is under the weather so I am still not sure if I will be there tomorrow night. I guess I better say no. To those that will be there – have fun. I have been on this blog for nearly 3 yrs. ( I think) and I have so wanted to meet everyone. But things keep going on. Just a remote chance I might go tomorrow but don’t count on it. I’m not on Facebook either (‘though a lot of my fds. and relatives tell me I should) so if there are any pictures, I would like to see them.

    Vicki – we live so close – maybe someday when our lives get a little more relaxed we can meet up for coffee or something!

    1. rainshine – I agree re coffee and also if there is a chance we both can go next time to the get together, we could ride together. I’m still sort of hoping for tomorrow night but it is not looking positive.

      1. Vicki – getting together for coffee sounds good sometime – and if there is a chance we can go the next get together, that would be great. I don’t mind driving, either if you want. I, too, am hoping for tomorrow night but for me it isn’t looking positive either.

  21. Almanac out today and calling for cold and above average snow in the Northeast but below average in SNE. I just bought a kick ass Ariens snow blower so we are jinxed for snow this winter.

    2. So, if they continue with their past accuracy, this translates to …..

      No snow and mild in the northeast.

      Snow lovers, beware. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      They certainly did so well with the hot summer projection.

    4. Actually, I love the OFA. I think I have purchased one every year since 96. I like to use it for the length of day and the tides.

    5. Yep and this will be the first winter I won’t have to worry about Mac driving to and from work and we can just sit in the window and watch the snow and our SIL shovel/snowblow. I’d say we are doubly jinxed, Hadi. Hopefully, we get at least a few doozers.

      1. Well, alright …… when you put it that way Vicki, we have to have at least one monster snowstorm for you and Mac to watch. 🙂 🙂

    1. Why did I say to click on the url? You know that – my husband is in the background and said “tell her to click on the url”. I guess he’s trying to be helpful. 🙂

  25. Looks like the CMC might have been on to something with this tropical system. The desparity between the CMC and GFS. GFS now shows that system into SE FL, far cry from the gulf like in earlier runs

      1. From TWC

        To be clear, it is too soon to determine if this system will have any impacts on the mainland U.S.

        A crucial player in determining U.S. impact appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean. (See the graphic under “Caribbean Impact” above).

        – If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, the jet stream dip may tug it a bit farther north, potentially making it a bigger threat in the Bahamas, or the U.S. East Coast. In this scenario, parts of the Southeast coast may be threatened by early-mid next week.

        – If, however, the system remains relatively far south in the Caribbean Sea, it may not get tugged by the jet stream dip, and instead track into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly intensifying in a favorable atmosphere with warm water temperatures. In this scenario, the U.S. Gulf Coast may be threatened mid-late next week.

  26. I swear every year around labor day weekend there is always a watcher out there don’t you guys think, weird.

    1. Ace, here is a “rough” range of Hurricane Strength and millibars:

      HURRICANE PRESSURES
      These are the pressure ranges in millibars typically associated with hurricanes:
      Cat 1 980-993
      Cat 2 965-979
      Cat 3 945-964
      Cat 4 920-944
      Cat 5 <920

      So the storm depicted above would be a Cat 1 hurricane or perhaps
      a very strong tropical storm. On the other hand the CMC shows
      962Mb which would be a very strong 2 or a low end 3:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=204

  28. That 18z gfs is downright scary. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this in the coming days. The gfs and cmc must be seeing something thats causing it to get picked up northward

    1. This morning’s 12Z Euro ALSO has it, but not nearly as intense.

      This is looking more and more like it will become Cristobal and possibly
      impact the US, perhaps even New England. I’d say it is a watcher, but
      NOTHING certain at this point.

      1. It may be a MISS for us, but the odds do NOT favor a poof.
        Sure it could still go poof, but I think this one happens. It’s
        just a question of WHERE DOES IT GO??????????????????

        1. I’m concerned that an East Coast trough may be in place
          and Potentially Sharpen Up just enough to propel this
          thing right at us. That is the concern at the moment.
          A long, long, long way from becoming a reality. 😀

  31. Greetings from Martha’s Vineyard where we had another lovely day of warm sunshine and cool dry air…

  32. The 18z GFS versus the 00z GFS is a perfect example of why trying to track tropicals before they form doesn’t really work.

    The 18z, taken verbatim, is not even really a hit, but a scrape with all strong wind over the ocean and a band of heavy rain over eastern areas (which is majorly over forecast on this run). But that’s to be expected.

    And is it any surprise that the 00z has the storm weaker and about 400 miles further east at the same time? Not at all.

    What is a more practical outlook at this point is the fact that more ridging in the East will make it that we need to pay attention to the tropics in the next few weeks. However, this is not the type of season that we see a parade of storms, so the chances will be fewer in number, and it will all depend on the pattern at the time.

  33. re: Tropical System

    Here is the 0Z CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=228

    06Z GFS (just a bit outside)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014082106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=240

    0Z Euro hasn’t got it at all. Never develops it.

    0Z NAVGEM

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2014082100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

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