The Week Ahead

103 Comments

3:41PM

A week of Summer weather is ahead as we have now seen the pattern shift into a mode that allows an upper level high pressure ridge to build over the eastern US and surface high pressure to sit south of New England. Cristobal, a tropical storm, will organize itself east of the Bahamas through Tuesday then likely strengthen to a hurricane as it moves north then turns northeast between the US East Coast and Bermuda Wednesday through Friday, finally racing toward the North Atlantic waters next weekend. This system, other than tossing some larger ocean swells toward shore mid to late week, will not bother the East Coast. For southern New England, the only real weather systems of any consequence, and that will be minimal, will be a pair of cold fronts that move through early Thursday and again sometime over the early portion of the Labor Day Weekend. Neither of these look like they will produce much more than cloudiness and a few showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50-55 inland 55-60 coast. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind light SE.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog in low elevations. Lows 55-60 inland valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Low 66. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Low 64. High 83, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84, cooler coast.

103 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Well that would be the Farmer’s Almanac, which is not the same thing as the Old Farmer’s Almanac. And it is true, the F.A. goes for a bad winter pretty much annually.

  6. Actually next weekend looks very decent right now.
    Watch the models. They are going to have a few issues beyond day 5.

  7. Thanks, TK. You did call for the pattern shift and it is coming.

    Caveat, I believe is this: I see major differences between coastal SNE and inland over the coming days/week. It’ll get warmer than we’ve grown accustomed to, but I think that by Thursday/Friday the coast will feel pretty much like it did this past week, while it’s 5-10 degrees warmer inland (perhaps even more in some spots). In part this will be due to some onshore wind from the tropical system as well as what appear to be trailer systems behind it that will scoot out to sea but provide a consistent easterly flow at the coast. Sort of the mirror image of late April and May.

    I don’t think that winter prognostication is a great idea. Fun, but almost every time we project months in advance it turns out differently.

    1. Good to see you here Josh and wish you would post more often than you do. Could you explain the last paragraph that you posted .

    2. The pattern shift is indeed already underway. I felt strongly about it.

      I did indicate cooler coast for the end of the week on the forecast portion. Though I think that may be more from sea breezing under weak gradient than from low pressure to the south. I believe that front washes out more than allows much to move along it.

      The tropical system will be so far offshore that it will have no influence on the wind field at the surface here, in my opinion.

      As far as the Winter thoughts, I have indicated it’s just some early feelings. I feel that I have a decent handle on where I think the pattern is going, so I decided to talk about it a little early this year. It may very well blow up on me but we shall see. 馃檪

  8. Tk could you suggest a deadline date for our winter predictions that we usually do. I had suggested 11/21 as it needs to be done I believe before it snows . Thanks.

      1. I might have Vicki. No one has commented on a date. I feel it should be in no later than 11/21. Let’s see if people can agree on a date this week.

        1. I think its cause it is just too early to think about Dont worry…it’ll be just about there. Did you see my comment on the acorns?

    2. Well there’s always a bit of risk, given we have snowed measurably in many parts of the region as early as mid to late October a few times. There are always gonna be seasons like that once in a while. I think mid November is decent.

      Let’s just say November 16. That’s probably the day I’m putting out my winter forecast anyway. It’ll be a nice time to look forward and have a little fun guessing snow for the season.

      1. If you do not mind, I will use a bit of recorder’s license and if a few stragglers have not had time to get it together, be flexible 馃槈 Me – I have to decide whose birthday numbers to use and my family is getting larger so it may take a lot of thought on my part !!!

  10. Answer to Today鈥檚 AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Since 1954, how many Atlantic hurricane names have been retired
    A. 18
    B. 38
    C. 58
    D. 78

    The answer is D, 78.

  12. That works tk as Vicki mentioned I may have said 11/17. Yes it can snow as we know before that. So November 16th for winter predictions is the deadline. Vicki can you still keep record of predictions and I will remind people of the deadline.

    1. I’ll keep records but just remind me of the cutoff when we get closer. Too early to think about guessing yet

      1. Vicki I will remind you. Yes sorry I did not reply on acorns. Part of me says the myths like acorns , warm falls and so on might be just myths and has more to do with the set up of the pattern.

  14. TK, as always I appreciate your clear explanation. You did indeed indicate cooler at the coast. My thought is that it may be even cooler at the coast than we think at this time based on the differences I experienced in the middle of last week. I went to Norwich, Vt. on Wednesday and it was 86. I don’t think Boston cracked 75 that day. Boston felt like a May or September day when I hopped into my car, and Norwich felt like a middle of the summer day.

    John, I’m not against winter predictions. In fact, they’re fun. I like making them. But, they’re fraught with problems, especially this early.

    1. We do it for fun, bragging rights if you will. Tk said tonight we should go with 11/17 for the deadline and that’s what it will be, it’s just our guessing thoughts. We would love to see you do it as you post some great information.

  15. RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU, ME
    0126 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

    …record high temperature set at caribou me…

    a record high temperature of 88 degrees was set at caribou me
    yesterday. this breaks the old record of 86 set in 1980.

    1. Makes one think that Logan could EASILY surpass 90, IF and only IF it can
      stay away from a SEA BREEZE. 馃榾

      Sure shows that Caribou is part of the Great White NORTH. 馃槅

    1. GFS and Euro, still no clue on this whatsoever. CMC has been advertising
      this for 3 days now. 馃榾

    1. He’s NOT very good, so it would not surprise me.
      He appears to be a very nice person, but his forecasting skills are
      lacking for sure.

  18. More changes at BZ.

    Danielle Niles to mornings and noon as of September.

    In my opinion, they just dont get it at ch 4. They change folks over there quicker than seasons change in New England.

    Look at ch 5. Sure, new faces appear from time to time, but the mainstays are there forever. It feels like you get to know them.

    1. Channel 4 WINS 2-1.
      4 has Eric and Barry, while 5 only has Harvey. 馃榾

      After their #1 and 1A, channel 4 has an array of nobodies.

      BUT, channel 4 has potentially one of the best ever in Eric Fisher.
      When Harvey and Barry retire, Eric will be the ONLY one.
      Well I have to give Matt Noyes a nod, as he is really good as well, but
      still a tad below Eric. imho.

    2. You do feel that way tom regarding 5 as its the best news station to watch for news, weather and sports.

  21. The CMC has been awesome at early detection of these tropical systems and i hope that continues into the winter seeing storms in the longer-term

    1. Indeed. It picked up on Cristobal WAY ahead of the other models.
      Sure, early forecast track/intensity was off, BUT it had it.

  22. I DID NOT KNOW THIS. Very interesting

    https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/t31.0-8/10572245_671207446306963_7301135136055058550_o.png

    Some comments:

    Jason Leadbetter I had always thought the 38′ cane was the strongest
    2 hrs 路 Like 路 1

    Christopher Piper Ahhh….I remember that one. It was a very warm summer. Oh how time flies.
    1 hr 路 Like 路 1

    Meredith McConnell Exaggerated by colonial media. Next thing you knew the talk by the well was about lost crops, soggy firewood and the preponderance of candy corn so early in the season.
    1 hr 路 Like 路 2

    Cary Scofield This supposedly happened 379 years ago. Can someone explain to me how the colonists who were alive then and lived through this, determined that this was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speed of 135 mph given what should’ve been non-existent instrumentation at the time?
    1 hr 路 Like 路 2

    Nick Panico Cary proxy data of sedimentary analysis of overwash in stratigraphy cores has determined surge height. Comparing that to known storms of certain wind speeds gives us our data for 1635

  23. DT is such a euro hugger (no offense to other euro huggers out there 馃槈 ) but he is insufferable. He was going on and on about how the euro was far superior in handling Cristobal, formerly Invest 96L. Sure, the euro was pretty consistent in its eventual path, but it was the last to even catch on to the formation of a tropical system, and once it did show something it kept it very weak and well below hurricane status.

    1. Agree totally.
      Isn’t Barry a Euro guy?

      The old Euro perhaps deserved the acclaim, but since the upgrade (Downgrade!),
      It doesn’t deserve it anymore in my opinion. 馃榾

      DT is beyond belief. I like reading his posts for pure entertainment value.

  25. 55F atop Mt. Washington, 77F at 1,000 ft Worcester, certainly a warm airmass.

    Logan’s at 81F with a northeast wind.

    I want to see what the Boston Harbor Buoy will read about 4pm today, with a light seabreeze and a shallow, warm top layer of water out there.

    It topped out at 71.4F yesterday, I believe.

    1. Daughter and family were at Humarock yesterday (again 馃檪 ) and said the water was really warm. Also, full of buggy seaweed.

      1. Nice on the warm water, but sorry to hear about the buggy seaweed. Sometimes that stuff can sit for many days and it gives out an awful odor.

  26. If it was going to be bit colder upstairs on Wed then we would be in a bit of trouble with late day storms north and west.

  28. I thought I heard one of the newscasters this morning say that some schools around here will be opening this week. Why all the rush these days?

    I believe Boston Public Schools will be starting on Thursday Sept. 4 the way it should be.

    1. Framingham and Uxbridge start Wednesday. Many of the schools recognize Jewish holidays (I agree with that) now so have to start earlier to get out in June. What I don’t like is starting before Labor Day. Just shorten the year.

    2. i start wednesday september 3rd but thats college but so are my brothers in high school. We went before the holiday weekend for about 4 years . They think its better to do it early so if there are snow days they can get out closer to the correct time. Though by going before labor day it makes it hard for the kids because the teachers start giving the kids homework for the weekend so then the parents say do your homework instead of doing trips to the beach, camping. etc. it really shortens the summer. Plus they already infringe on summer with the stupid math and english packets that got harder and harder every year and now my brothers also have a History packet that they have to do. Most of the time we got out later than the original day,

  29. 12z NAM still aggressive with CAPE and Lift for Wed. With that said it may be too warm aloft which is one thing that hurts thunderstorm development.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      1. lol, this is true John. I was kinda getting used to the fall preview. Its kind of a shock to the system, kinda like in the early spring we get a few of those teaser days of warmth in a row then winter snaps us back into reality with cold

  31. 12Z Canadian has LOST the next Tropical system. Something changed.
    We’ll see IF it comes back or not. 馃榾

    2. How was the Music? 馃榾

      Seriously, they’re all over the place.
      Thankfully they like seals and not humans.

      Just DON’T look like a seal in the water!!!!

  33. Plymouth schools start this Wednesday but have Friday off. Of course the two warmest days this week are forecasted for the two days they go to school. This is the first time I have seen Plymouth resume school before Labor Day. I have to say that my boys are ready though.

    1. That had been pembrokes schedule the last 5 years sue. My mom was just saying the same thing on Plymouth going back early. If I remember though I think they got out earlier. My sister lives there.

    2. My grandson is ready also but then he would be happy with year-round school. My granddaughter starts Kindergarten and is scared

    3. My wife is a a teacher at Plymouth South starts tomorrow. She received a email saying the ac is broken.

  37. Woburn doesn’t start until Thursday September 4. Still a week and a half of Summer vacation to go here!

    Spending the day at Water Country tomorrow. Don’t think we could have picked a better day. 馃檪

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