Labor Day Weekend

112 Comments

6:34PM

The focus of this post will be on the weather forecast for the Labor Day Weekend (Saturday & Sunday August 30 & 31 as well as Monday September 1). But of course there will be a look further into the first week of September.

Overall pattern is warm, though a cooler air mass is currently over the region and will hang in place through Saturday morning before warmer air arrives from the southwest. Saturday itself will dawn quite chilly by standards of the end of August. But high pressure will be in the process of sinking to the south of New England while a weak warm front slides through, producing only some high cloudiness. But it will take quite a while for humidity to start increasing, so after the chilly start you will notice it warming up somewhat on Saturday but remaining dry. By Saturday night and especially Sunday, we’ll get into a stronger southwesterly flow of warm to very warm, more humid air. At the same time, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest and will get closer by Sunday night. At this time it looks like shower and thunderstorm activity with this front will hang back well northwest of the Boston area over western MA and CT, VT and western to central NH and into parts of Maine by late in the day into the evening. In the overnight hours of Sunday night / early Monday this activity will press to the east and cross the main WHW forecast area. Most of it should be moving offshore by early Monday as the front does the same. However the front will be weakening and there is no big push of dry air behind it for Labor Day, which will still be somewhat muggy with a pop up shower or storm possible anywhere in the afternoon but favoring southern MA and RI. So all in all, the weekend will be quite decent.

Looking ahead, we will remain under a flat ridge of upper level high pressure while the jet stream tries to send a couple fronts across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast Tuesday-Friday. None of these fronts look particularly strong.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy with some high clouds coming in from the NW. Lows 45-50 inland valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny with some additional high clouds at times. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind light SE to S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variable high clouds. Increasingly humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variable clouds at all levels but mainly high & mid level allowing episodes of sun. Humid. Highs 75-80  South Coast / Cap;e Cod, 80s elsewhere, may touch 90 inland. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers and thunderstorms moving across the region from west to east mainly overnight. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but with higher gusts.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Lingering showers Cape Cod early. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible afternoon, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Humid. Highs 77-86, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible mainly at night. Low 65. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 85.

112 thoughts on “Labor Day Weekend”

        1. My mom is with us till Monday but just chilling . 4 day work week than I’m off till following Thursday so 5 day weekend starting next Friday.

          1. My business associate is away for 2 weeks. I have some work to do but will have far less pressure for the first time in a while. We will also just chill.

  4. Interesting reading some comments on last blog regarding alcohol. Ace I found your views to be of mature and sombody that may have a little education on the matter. The laws in place here is because we have major issues in this state with the use and abuse of alcohol/ drugs. There are laws that become effective next year because of this crisis . The new law in place will be for an addict to get the help they need without the bull shit from insurance company’s. Heroin is killing are population right now but alcohol has killed this population for generation . The problem is the people get all juiced up and find or think nothing will happen to me. I’m sorry I’m now going on and not making any sense .

      1. Actually, John, you made perfect sense. I am glad you offered your opinion. It’s how it should be. I agree; but then even if I did not, an opinion is always a way for others to see different points of view. Also, good info. I didn’t know about the upcoming laws.

      1. And I remember tk we were saying the same thing in the beginning of the summer. Remember some of those cold starts at that time of year.

        1. Yes we did have some. Last night was text book radiational cooling there – clear calm conditions for those few hours with low dew point. It’s not a particularly chilly air mass. Just particularly perfect conditions.

  9. Good morning and happy Holiday weekend to all.

    Beautiful morning.

    I wonder IF anyone even sees a drop of rain in Eastern sections, once again. 😀

    Tropics look like they have gone POOF, even though there is some thoughts
    about that Gulf disturbance? The CMC tropical Detector says NOTHING doing.

    I don’t know how I missed the discussion on Alcohol.
    I have seen it RUIN too many lives, way too many.

    I’ll stop there because I could go on forever.

  10. Looks like NWS may be guilty of over-analysis and over-forecasting precipitation…again. Verification will tell us for sure, but I’m pretty sure of this.

      1. I think we have a shot at showers/storms Sunday night, but not as widespread as they are making it sound and much of the stuff in eastern and southeastern MA and nearby areas may be weakening or dying when it arrives.

        Monday we do run risk of developing showers/storms, but no wash-out. The front will be washing out nearby. No dry push. Humidity + some heating = storm risk.

  11. What a beauty of a day. Now if we get this for the next two days in my view this will be a top 10 Labor Day weekend . Let’s see how it unfolds. I’m planting and seeding now as you will have no better time than right now early fall to do this it’s the ideal time.

      1. That’s all good tk. If I’m correct we usually have something that wrecks labor day weekend it seems.

        1. Meaning the heat would be good . I’m off with my wording this weekend I apologize . Very nice breeze here .

    2. We were sitting on deck and I was watching the clouds, daydreaming and thinking yet again that I never remember such a spectacular summer.

  12. 12Z NAM for tomorrow:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Simulated reflectivity is NOT lined up with best instability.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014083012&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=031

  14. Good evening everyone, I’m like the extended warmth for next week with highs of 85-90 degrees, keep it going, you won’t here many complaints 🙂

    Heading to CBS Scene for dinner and a 9:30 movie

    1. There’s nothing like a crowd at a college football game, the energy is crazy. I only say this bc I’m watching college football and been to a notre dame game, talk about pride 🙂

  16. As I mentioned before I have doubts about it hitting 90 (tomorrow will be a close call; I don’t think we’ll reach 90 at the coast any other day of the week, or any other day this year for that matter). I also have doubts about it being as hot and humid as many are projecting. 80s yes, but a muted and very much toned down summer heat. I recall similar forecasts last week at this time (not TK, of course). It did not turn out to be a hot week, with one exception (Wednesday). It was also not especially humid during the 3 day `heat wave.’ I expect it to be more humid the coming days, and hotter than today. However, if you’re expecting real summer heat, don’t bank on it. Had this pattern shift occurred in July, we’d be talking a fairly significant set of heat waves.

  17. Today’s 1st AcuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In 1935, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the United States, hit which area?
    A. Florida Keys
    B. Charlestown
    C. Gulfport
    D. Galveston

    Today’s 2nd … not-so-weatherish … AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Labor Day was first celebrated in what city?

    A. Boston
    B. Chicago
    C. San Francisco
    D. New York City

    Answers later today.

  19. Today’s 3rd Acuuweather Trivia Quiz

    In 1935 the most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in the western hemisphere, hit the United States was called …

    A. Andrew
    B. Camille
    C. Kerry
    D. No Name

    Answer later today.

  22. SPC does have part of the region in slight risk for severe storms today from near Worcester area points west.
    Probabilities From SPC in slight risk area
    Hail 5%
    Wind – 15%
    Tornado – 2%

    Thunderstorm Impact Scale
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Elevated
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

  24. Good morning. Much Muggier and summery feel to this morning.

    Our neighbor was out fishing yesterday and brought over about 4 lbs of sushi grade yellow fin. He said they were biting as fast as they could put the squid on their hooks. Most were tossed back

      1. He sells a lot and goes out pretty far. A few times a year he will bring us some. There is nothing like fresh caught fish

        Like you, I always preferred fresh water fishing but for eating prefer salt water

  25. Thanks, TK.

    Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday wknd.

    Wow – went out earlier and you can really sense the change in humidity. It’s very humid out but there is a nice breeze so it’s tolerable. Mainly cloudy here in Sudbury with a few peeks of sun at times.

  26. David Epstein puts out an excellent detailed forcast . If you get a chance check it out on boston.com. He is also an avid planter. Would be nice to have him check us out.

    1. Yes he is excellent. Too bad he’s not on air somewhere.
      Ran into him at the Star Market (now Shaws) Deli in West Roxbury
      years ago. He was very unhappy with his contract situation at channel 5 at the time. 😀

  27. Hmm, Boston dewpoint at 9Am is 66.

    FOR TODAY:

    From NWS

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/1620982_673910036036704_8713902082644918006_n.jpg?oh=6bf213b63b1fe46dc8b120486c503c48&oe=547C727F&__gda__=1417365826_74c1757ba697e9f9dc611e9b407c209e

    From SPC, looks like the SLight Risk area has been REMOVED:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1409492822659

    Tornado

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1409492868625

  28. Global models are NOT picking up on this at this time. Will it develop???

    NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 2 new photos.

    On this Sunday morning, NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This system has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone through mid-week.
    Get the latest on the tropics anytime by visiting the NHC website at

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/t1.0-9/10574338_740155019383314_2178199195294850772_n.png

    1. Providing significant Warm Air Advection and the dew point is responding.
      Up to 67 at Boston 10AM. 😀

      68 Norwood and Providence. 😀

    2. No wind here at all not even a breeze. Filtered sun and humid. Yesterday we had a wonderfull breeze all day .

  31. Hi all!

    It’s me as my non-admin self again.

    The update will be delayed as I cannot log in as admin for a little while. There is a software upgrade going on today. You may have brief interruptions reaching the blog.

    I’ll try to update before leaving for Hampton Beach NH this afternoon. Hanging there for a few hours into the evening, maybe cashing in some arcade points with my son (we have a whole lot), and tokens from roll-a-bingo. I can probably get a stuffed animal or giant banana that won’t fit in the car. 😛

    Fireworks of one kind or another up there tonight, man-made or natural. We shall see! Maybe we’ll get both. 🙂

    1. You like Hampton Beach. Is the water tolerable?
      My experience with Hampton Beach is a couple of concerts at
      the Hampton Beach Casino. 😀

      1. By now the water is about its warmest. Sometimes it goes to around 70 there, most times upper 60s. Earlier in the season it’s struggling into the lower 60s on average.

        Extremely rare but sometimes if things line up just right, the water temp will bounce above 70 for a day or 2. We had one such day last Summer I believe.

  33. I thought we had a troll aboard…..just kidding. Hi TK

    Hampton got into the top 20 beaches in the area. Have fun…..if there is a dad son competition, you know who I’m rooting for 😉

    2. Vicki I was actually reading that myself last night . I was surprised as they had a picture of a marshfield beach it did not make the cut. Fieldston beach, green harbor, rexhame beach all wonderfull beaches.Brant Rock no where to sit so that one does nothing for me.

    1. Do coastal section have a shot at any t=storms today?
      I’m thinking, if any, pretty much after sunset. 😀

      1. I’m always in chat mode – just not always here. 😉

        I think if any storms reach that area it will be quite late this evening or overnight.

  35. My hair has officially confirmed the DP has risen significantly. Was stick straight yesterday……I have no idea what to classify it as today 🙁

    1. Sure is!!! Dew Point is 71 at my house! I turned on the A/C about an hour ago and suspect it will remain on through at least Wednesday!

    1. From NWS:

      INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND 00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
      EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

        1. MU CAPE, 20Z today

          https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/cape20.png

          Most Unstable CAPE (J/kg) & LPL Height (m AGL)

          MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of instability in the troposphere. This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to the most unstable parcel of air found within the lowest 300-mb of the atmosphere while being lifted to its level of free convection (LFC). No parcel entrainment is considered. The CAPE and CIN calculations use the virtual temperature correction.

          The LPL (Lifted Parcel Level) allows for the determination of the height of the most unstable parcel. This makes it easy to identify areas where the largest CAPE is “elevated.”

  38. Big difference compared to yesterday when it comes to the humidity.
    Clouds hanging tough where I am with limited sunshine which hopefully will hamper any thunderstorm development.

    1. Thanks JJ. Not great but there

      No AC here as ceiling fans are keeping it relatively comfy and there is a nice breeze on porch

      What do you think the chances are PGA gets rain delayed.

  40. I think the third round will be fine today.
    I would not be surprised tomorrow if they push the tee times up and were watching the tournament on tape delay since once again there is a chance of showers and storms.

    1. Thanks JJ

      Sun has been in and out here for better than an hour. Through clouds but some blue sky and bright sunshine also

  41. Sun has been out for about half hour.
    SPC has mesoscale discussion out for southwestern CT south including NYC area where the greatest instability looks to be.

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