High & Dry

67 Comments

3:25PM

In came the gusty westerly breeze Monday to clear out the air, and now high pressure builds in through Wednesday then sits atop the Northeast for the rest of this week. Low pressure to the south should stay far enough way to only toss some high clouds into the sky at times midweek, and a cold front from the north is likely come through dry late Sunday or early Monday. This is a quiet weather pattern, and a dry one. Slowly, we are building a drought in the region and without significant precipitation this is going to become a more serious issue with time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: A few stray clouds then clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs around 70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s, some upper 30s valleys and lower 50s cities. Wind light NW to N.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine – few high clouds across the southern sky. Highs in the 60s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine & high clouds. Low 45. High 70.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 73.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 80.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

67 thoughts on “High & Dry”

  3. Thank you TK.

    Are you actually predicting a serious drought? OR just warning that if things
    don’t change it could become one?

    I believe you are just putting the warning out there at this time.

    I am noticing EVERYTHING in the area turning brown now. The kind of brown that is usually reserved for a dry/hot July. If it stays like this through Autumn and Winter,
    we could be in BIG trouble for next growing season and BIG trouble with Municipal
    water supplies.

    Let’s start doing the WHW RAIN DANCE!!

    2. It’s kind of a “what-if” cautionary message for now. But I do believe that we are entering a long-term dry regime with variable temperatures but a hot 2015 overall.

      We should have one more spell of above normal precipitation sometime this Autumn before we go more persistently dry, if things work out as I expect they could.

      My early feeling of a below normal snow winter has not changed, and I highly doubt it will. Not caring particularly much for what anyone else has to say about it right now. I’ll weigh that more heavily if I deem it necessary. If that’s going to happen it will likely be triggered while I’m at the SNE Weather Conference on October 25 and talk to some people who are far better at long range forecasting than I’ll ever be.

    1. Interesting. Thanks Vicki.

      Notable that this forecast has “Normal” Winter temperatures for New England,
      but above normal Autumn. Hmmmm

      1. NWS still has it warmer than normal for Winter, which IMO is more realistic for an overall trend. For cold we’ll need it to come straight south and that will require blocking, which will likely be lacking.

  6. Pete says big time rains for next week with a major change in the jet stream opening up the Gulf of Mexico.

    Do you agree with that TK??

    1. TK – As far as the East coast is concerned for the upcoming winter, will the Mid-Atlantic states (MD/DC/VA/NC/SC) end up with most of the snow? I have been noticing lately that rains have been missing us and wondering if that is why you are predicting below normal snow for SNE with the current dry pattern continuing for months on end.

      1. I think we’ll be dry for a different reason than we are now. I’d expect snow to be above normal in the Mid Atlantic.

    2. I do not agree completely. Also a bit bold using the phrase “big time rains” a week in advance. There are signs as we get into October we stay warm and probably turn wetter, but it’s too early to tell if we’ll have a Gulf-juiced rain event.

  7. Good morning.

    Another beautiful day on tap for us today.

    We need to get into Winter because weatherwise I am getting bored. No more T-Storms.
    and the Tropics are kaput so there is NOTHING until possible snow events, IF that even
    materializes this Winter. Time will tell. This beautiful weather is really nice, but
    it’s not exciting. 😀

    1. If a certain segment of Congress does NOT believe in equal pay for Woman, then how would they EVER think there was anything at all, no matter how remote,
      to this “Climate” Change. It’s a JOKE.

      1. Hmmmm interesting. Not a view I share unless he was being facetious. It locked up on me partway through a few times so I couldn’t see the end to be able to tell. It would amaze me if someone didn’t think we needed to be worried about pesticides, etc so perhaps he was making be facetious.

        I may have posted this before but found it interesting. I think it may have been Matt who originally posted it on FB where I saw it.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysa5OBhXz-Q

  9. Yawn, boring weather. My puppy starts destroying the house when she gets bored. Her new thing is chewing on the kitchen table legs.

      1. That comment was supposed to be for the above comment by OS.

        Ace, I can’t remember what we did to keep our dogs from chewing furniture. They do love to teeth. I was surprised to see the picture of her being held on FB. She looks much larger when she is in pictures just of her. She is a lovely little girl!

  10. It’s probably pretty far fetched, but if the 12z NAM verifies eastern and southeastern Mass. is looking at 1-3″ of rain on Thursday afternoon and night. Big model differences on where this low ends up. The trend seems to be more precipitation though. Feels like tracking a winter storm 🙂

    1. Interesting.

      Eric was talking about the model divergence last evening.
      His thoughts were that we would end up mostly dry and IF it were to rain,
      it would be confined to far SE MA.

  11. Ace we used some spray on things our puppy was chewing. I think it was Bitter Apple. We had to spray it on some thing daily but it deterred her from chewing on table legs, sides of the cabinets, etc.

    1. Thanks North! Yea we tried that right off the bat and it deters her for a minute but she just goes right back at it

      1. hahahahahahaha – she’s female all right 🙂

        We used to spray our cocker spaniel with a water bottle…..she just tried to catch it in her mouth and thought it was a fine game!

  12. I was out and about earlier and noticed some trees totally turned. It is definitely not the majority. Typically, the early changers are the ones that are not really healthy; but these were really vivid reds and oranges.

    1. I have been seeing this as well. We have a bush in our backyard and I have no idea what its called, but when it turns its a bright orangy red. I noted when it was this color last year and it’s a full 2 weeks ahead of last year.

          1. As a disclaimer, i have a few of them in my yard and there’s only one that’s changed like this so far. It has full sun all day.

      2. Sounds like a burning bush, but mine hasn’t changed a bit yet… One of my Maples is starting to go red….

  13. Thats a few GFS runs in a row …… that is hinting at something tropical down east of the SE US coastline in the long term.

    Perhaps something to watch for trends.

  16. Good evening!! What a beautiful day, and going forward looks beautiful too, let’s hope this is the beginning of above average temps for the next 6 months 🙂

  17. I know that today’s model solutions have shifted north with the rain chances Thursday night …….. but, given the persistence of a dry pattern and a decent size ridge trying to nudge in from the west …… I’d say the rain and the system in general still miss south and east.

    Perhaps Nantucket and Chatham get some decent, measureable rainfall and some lighter rains make it over the Cape, but after that, not much.

    We need the rain on the south shore, so this prediction is probably what the doctor ordered ! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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