What Was That You Said About Dry Weather For Days?

99 Comments

7:22PM

Ok it may not rain everywhere on Thursday to early Friday, but the threat has presented itself, and is most pronounced for areas south of the Mass Turnpike as it stands now. This is because it looks like developing low pressure down the coast, though not very strong, will be able to drift northeastward just enough to take advantage of a slight weakness in the ridge of high pressure centered just north of New England. So the string of what looked like many days of sunshine will probably be interrupted. There is still some uncertainty as to where the  rain cut-off will be and just how far north it will penetrate. Computer models range from a near-miss to a decent soaking. So with varying scenarios presented to us by our man-made plug-and-chug machines, and just experience that forecasting this type of set-up is difficult, at best, a low-confidence forecast for wet weather over southeastern and eastern areas will follow this, book-ended by a dry forecast for Wednesday and the weekend. In fact, the weekend portion will feature some decent warmth advertised.

Further out but less important right now is a cold front early next week which may end up putting a premature end to the sunny/warm spell.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Few fair-weather clouds vanish northwest sky and a few high clouds south. Lows in the 40s most areas but upper 30s deeper valleys and near 50 in urban locations. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine most of the time but some high clouds fanning in from the south while a few lower clouds drift in from the ocean. Highs in the 60s, coolest along the coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially afternoon favoring southern MA and RI. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain early favoring eastern MA. Slow clearing later. Low 49. High 68.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 83.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 74.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 61.

99 thoughts on “What Was That You Said About Dry Weather For Days?”

  3. Interesting high temperature month (Sept) going at Logan

    90+ : 3

    80s : 5

    70s : 7

    60s : 7 (of which 6 came consecutively).

    50s : 1

  4. It was evidently a very dry autumn last year as well. Sept 2013 was -1.23 inches below normal and October 2013, a whopping -3.33 inches below normal. Logan TOTALED 0.61 inches for the whole month.

    Will be interesting to see how this autumn plays out, but the last 6-8 weeks have certainly led us into a new season fairly dry.

    All data from Taunton NWS climate section.

    1. Last autumn, the last 80F day at Logan occurred on October 2nd (82F) and the last 70F day occurred November 1st (72F).

      2. Previous autumns to that, last 80F day at Logan ….

        2012 : September 14th !!!!

        2011 : October 10th

        2010 : October 1st

        2009 : September 24th.

  5. I remember last year being dry too. I tried to communicate the fact we were seriously dry but was laughed at by some.

    Turns out, it was true. Oh well. Laughter in the name of falsity. I guess it happens. 😉

    2. I think it was the drought you were predicting that had people chuckle. I think we have had two abnormal dry spells in the last two years but I could be wrong. I thought last summer was one that I did not have to mow as often.

      1. But during much of that time Boston was actually in a drought zone on the drought monitor maps. The drought actually verified, minor as it was.

        What has me concerned is the next round may be more than minor…

  6. Thanks tk, I’m seeing 1-2 inches south and east of Boston and Providence, sharp cut off as you go north and west, I also can’t believe how fast times flying and next week is Oct. I’ve got 4 weeks of Fall Aeration overseedings left, then 4 weeks of Late Fall Fertilizers and then deep root feedings for ornamentals till about 2nd-3rd week of Dec, and then we r done, and then start back up in 12 weeks with Lime. The rain will really help the lawns recover from summer stress. Good night 🙂

    1. Are you talking about the possible rain event Thursday night Coastal ….

      If so, my guess is that our general south shore area has a better chance of little or very little precip totals versus something appreciable.

      My guess is that a sharp cutoff in precip amounts will end up south and east of us.

  9. To Rain or Not to Rain, that is the question.

    If we remain in the current rut, in it will be a near miss. Else perhaps we get some
    much needed rain.

    I wonder if models will converge on the correct solution today?

    1. Both the 06Z NAM and the 06Z GFS now bring rain into the area, with the NAM
      showing somewhat less precipitation. IF they both show rain with the 12Z run, then it’s still not a lock, but sure looking good.

    1. Sorry, my mistake. I’m having mouse control issues Or a senior moment.
      That was the 06Z GFS.

      12Z NAM is SLOOOOW to bring precipitation Nortward. Looks like a really SHARP cutoff.

  15. Judging by models my thoughts still at 1-2 inches of rain during tommorrow afternoon, the rain shield won’t make it much further north than the mass pike later Thursday evening briefly before going back out to sea, good day everyone 🙂

      1. NOTING THE SLUG OF HEAVIER
        QPF REMAINS GENERALLY ACROSS E CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE NIGHT. COULD
        SEE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
        TIMEFRAME…HEAVIEST ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

        1. This close to an event, I am Comfortable with the NAM
          AND it is consistent with the usually pretty reliable
          CMC.

          We shall see what the 12Z CMC has to say.
          My Guess…it will agree with the NAM.

          1. Well, 12Z CMC is in:

            CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km

            http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033

            So it looks to be in agreement with the GFS
            and the NAM looks to be out to lunch.

            24 hours out and the models can’t agree!!!!

            Meteogram doesn’t show all that much rain though:

            http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us

  16. I am wondering if this is going to be the typical theme of the upcoming winter with lows down the coast bringing the Mid-Atlantic big time snows with SHARP CUTOFFS here in SNE. I have outdoor plans for tomorrow evening so I personally hope it doesn’t rain here in Boston this time around.

    Good Luck OS…I have a feeling it’s going to be one frustrating winter at times to say the least, lol. Keep us posted as always! 😀

    1. Philip,

      I really don’t care one way or the other, however, we do have dinner plans, so for my wife’s sake, I’m with you. I hope the rain stays to the South.

      We shall see. 😀

  17. One thing about the GFS (and my interpretation could be wrong), but I think, as the rain makes its most northerly approach, its also about that time that the rain shield seems to be taking a big right hand turn. Interesting to see which one wins …. the northward push or the eastward turn.

    1. Well one thing for sure, IF it were Winter, the EASTWARD turn would WIN.
      No doubt about it. However, since it is late September, I honestly don’t know.
      Probably a compromise. 😀

  19. 12Z GFS total Precip 72 hours

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    12Z NAM total PRecip

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    12Z CMC (GEM) 72 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014092412/gem_apcpn_eus_12.png

    2. What does the Euro have to say about all this? Or is that model pretty much rendered useless at this point, lol

      1. Don’t know. I cancelled my Subscription.

        It wasn’t worth the money. The summer severe parameters
        SUCKED. When the NAM and GFS had Capes exceeding 3,000, Euro had 1,000 – 1,500. Didn’t even have Lifted Index.
        I’ll deal with what I can get for free. Of course, I might be
        tempted to re-up come December. 😀

  22. The NAM used to overcook. Not so much anymore.
    The GFS is now the overcooker, in most cases.
    Roll reversal. Funny what changes and upgrades will do.

    Last night one of the models predicted 8 inches of rain for Block Island from the coming system. I forget which one.

    I can see somewhere near the South Coast getting over an inch while just north of Boston gets nothing out of this.

    1. Thanks TK. Ok let’s pretend it’s Winter.

      TK, please outline the FINAL RAIN/SNOW LINE.
      Err I mean RAIN LINE. 😆

    1. Interesting stuff. I heard his analysis live and i dont agree. Bottom line, its on the players. These guys are getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. If they dont like the new o-line coach, tough. They need to man up and play like pros. And the part about Volmer and Solder were always good and are suddenly bad, really? How do we really know about Volmer? He’s been off and on hurt with a bad back. Solder has always been shaky especially against stronger d-lineman with lower centers of gravity. Hes a tall slow clunky guy who struggles with his balance and athletism. The o-line had issues last year too and has been steadily declining. Similar stats for sacks, hurries, and knockdowns this year as last year at this time.

      1. Agree or not, I just found it interesting. Something is going on and in my opinion, this is the best answer I have seen. I have heard other rumblings. Just makes sense to me.

        No Matter what, they BEST get their act together.

    3. My SIL does agree. I just got a welcome earful on zone play, man to man, 3-4 and 4-3. He believes in many cases the coaches do not utilize their talent. Revis for example. If they design plays that do not utilize talent, it makes sense that the talent can’t perform as it should. Good link OS

  25. Apparently the current radar in its placement of the rains is further west and inland down in the south and mid-atlantic than most models were showing. Might mean more rain for us?

      1. Just drove down 95 from walpole to NA and noticed the color on the sides of the highway. Not like peak color or anything but a little bit more than 20% color IMO

        1. Years ago I used to frequently commute back and forth to Plainville on 95 and I always thought the colors on the side of the road were absolutely spectacular. I can only imagine what the colors must have been like in the previous years before the interstate was built. 🙂

      2. There is very little, if any color here in Boston. Usually by now even at this early date, there is quite a bit of good spotty color. It is still pretty much just as green as there was back in July & August.

  27. Color depends on many things…
    First and foremost: amount of daylight (this is a constant from year to year).
    Other things: overall pattern (temp/rainfall), AND it has a lot to do with the types of trees in the region. That’s why some areas will have early color while others little or none.

      1. Probably not. Any change in gasses is minimal as far as trees are concerned, and if anything there is probably less pollution around cities now versus 25 years ago.

  28. I picked up my new truck today and have no idea how to work half the stuff it came with. What happened to needle dials and a compass?

      3. My FIL refused to have electric windows until the day he died. Said if there were an emergency they would short and you’d be stuck

  29. 18Z NAM hold course. Rain stops South of Boston.
    72 hour total precip:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    18Z GFS total precip. hmmm beginning to BACK OFF.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140924+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

      1. If tomorrow was “December” 25th, we would probably be missing some big Mid-Atlantic snows. I have a bad feeling that will be much of our upcoming winter if TK’s thoughts of below normal snowfall verifies.

  32. BB has 82F, 86F and 80F for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

    Whats the chances someone takes a run at 90F ? Especially Boston points north and west if they dont get any rain tonight or Friday and the top layer of ground remains dry.

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