Pardon The Interruption

124 Comments

7:27AM

One interruption today thanks to low pressure moving up from the south, then making a right hook and heading out to sea – but close enough so that clouds dominate and some wet weather moves in as well. Most of the rain will occur along and south of the Mass Pike but some may push a little further north of there later today into tonight. It all pulls away by early Friday and high pressure rebuilds over the region and holds through the weekend into Monday, with a warm-up, feeling a bit like Summer. A cold front from the north arrives by Tuesday putting an end to that particular Summery spell.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Cloudy but brighter at times southern NH. Rain arriving in southern MA and RI, may push northward to areas around the Mass Pike later. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain most likely southern half of MA through RI and a chance of a little light rain to the north before ending and clearing toward dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60s coast to lower 70s inland. Wind light NE to N.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Clear overnights with patchy fog valley areas. Sunny both days. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80, cooler coastal areas.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

124 thoughts on “Pardon The Interruption”

  6. WOW!

    The 06Z NAM has changed it’s tune all of a sudden.

    48hour total precip

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140925+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    06Z GFS

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140925+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    06Z CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_06/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif

    1. Taking a look at the radar u can clearly see the precip shield more to the west than modeled. Will that translate here, not sure yet

      1. I looked at that. It was always modeled to be like this.
        The problem with the modeling is WHEN does it take
        a RIGHT TURN???

        If turn is delayed a bit, we get into the juicy stuff. IF it turns
        too quickly, then juicy stuff remains to the South. Still
        some model divergence.

        Here it is hours away, AND we STILL DON’T KNOW.

        Rain sure looks LIKELY from Boston Area South, but that
        still could change. 😀

              1. Yes, I think so. Parts of the Jersey coast may see 2 inches of rain. This storm looks a lot like a winter nor’easter that impacts the mid-Atlantic and not so much us. Any rain we get will be beneficial, even if it’s just a quarter inch here in the Boston area.

                1. This is very much like a HUGE WINTER MISS, where the Cape and Islands would land the bulk of the Precip. Going to be a very sharp cutoff and it may be just about the Boston area, give or take 20 miles or so North or South. We shall see.

    1. I think you are right Hadi. Last evening Eric Fisher indicated that he
      did NOT think Rain would make it to Boston.

      Northward progress of the rain is at a snail’s pace. 😀

      It is still possible that it just barely makes it to Boston, but you may
      very well be 100% correct.

      We shall see.

        1. Need to advance several hours. 12Z Nam still has
          a fair amount getting to Boston, but not much farther North. Going to be extremely close.

    1. A little push just South of Providence, but it will stall out somewhere to the North of Providence and South of Boston.

  12. Well, it’s raining moderately, and judging by radar it’s gonna last for sometime, heading to Wrentham now 🙂

  14. What I find interesting is that according to the maps, the high technically is well to our east and not due north and yet, we will pretty much miss the rain. I am not complaining in the least. I will save the complaining a few months from now.

    Just wondering is all….

  18. Just arrived in wrentham and it’s dry but feels like it’s gonna start any second, it was raining till about Attleboro then sprinkles the nothing in na plainville 🙂

  19. Visibility is dropping here in Reading but NOT due to rain. I’m in a parking lot and the landscapers are blowing debris everywhere! It looks like a haboob out here! 😛

      1. From NWS a few hours ago:

        BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS…EXPECT MOST PCPN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHILE SOUTHERN NH AND
        NORTHERN MASS HAVE AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES. WE HAVE LOWERED QPF TO NEAR ZERO NORTH OF THE PIKE AND MAINTAINED 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IN
        THE FAR SOUTH.

    1. I wouldn’t be surprised if it were.

      We ALL knew that there would be a right hand turn.
      It was just a question of when/how far North. Well it happened AND the
      system went poof. The power of a BIG DRY HIGH entrenched. 😀

  28. So now that the ground is going to get very little moisture and is otherwise dry …

    How high do the temps go this weekend ….

    12 to 15C 850 mb temps at 12z Saturday …..

    15 to 17C 850 mb temps at 12z Sunday …..

    This, from the 12z EURO.

    1. With full mixing 17C at 850MB could support 90.1 Degrees F.
      With the lower Sun Angle, would it achieve that level? Probably not.

      More like 84 or 85. 😀

  29. From the NWS a few minutes ago and even this is NOT enough:

    THE AIRMASS ABOVE 850 MB
    REMAINS DRY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AS PER MIDDAY AMDAR SOUNDING
    WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE MOISTENING ENOUGH ALOFT TO ALLOW SOME
    LIGHT RAIN. UP TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH
    COAST BUT 0.1 INCHES OR LESS NORTH OF PROVIDENCE.

  30. Im worried what we are dealing with right now will be what we deal with this winter for at least decmember and january

    1. Agreed, however …… my lawn and all the others in the neighborhood were in decent shape through July, even into early August.

      I noticed the real burnt lawns started up later in August and certainly now, into September.

      Perhaps there was a decent ground water table into the first half of summer ??

  32. KUDOS to Eric Fisher.

    He was VERY CLEAR that he did NOT think that the rain would make it to
    Boston.

    He is Good and we are very fortunate to have him.

  34. Notice with the latest drought monitor parts of SNE in moderate drought.
    I only had a sprtiz so far today and the sun made an appearance a half hour ago.

  35. For what its worth, its in the low 90s in eastern Montana and the Dakotas, which are under the center of the big ridge.

  36. If I remember correctly I believe parts of the Dakotas had measurable snowfall earlier this month. What a difference a few weeks makes.

    1. Thanks. OS and JJ. Not at all surprised. Even folks who really have nothing but casual interest in weather are mentioning it.

  40. The latest CPC has continued above normal temps and below normal precip through at least the first few days of October. At least no widespread frost/freeze anytime soon.

    Logan precip since Jan. 1 = -4.02″

    Let the dry times roll. 😉

  41. I find it interesting that the Berkshires and most of NNE are fine in terms of water. If I am not mistaken, back in August there was a week or so that NNE received daily frequent showers/storms (some severe) while most of SNE remained dry.

    1. We get out water from quabin which seems to be in a no drought area. In the 35 yrs we have lived here, we have had a water ban once. I’m thinking it was mid to latter part of 80s

  43. No surprises with this system so far. Doing about as expected. If anything a little less rain in southern areas, but still pockets of moderate rain where it can overcome the dry air constantly being fed in from high pressure to the north.

  45. TK, I read “summery spell” as “summery smell.” 😛 I LOVE the smell of summer AND fall…though, I think fall wins for me, smell-wise. 😀

  50. Good morning.
    Unless I missed it, NOT a single drop in JP. Was out to dinner last night
    and when we left the restaurant in Norwood at 9PM, there was a little very light rain/sprinkles. Drove North and it quit within a mile or so. All was DRYat home this morning when I headed out. 😀

  53. So now what? Nothing cooking at all. No tropics. No thunderstorms. Nothing!!!

    So we’re down to How HIGH will it go on Sunday?

    06Z GFS for Sunday, ONLY suggests temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
    across the area. YAWN…….

    I guess we can continue to monitor drought conditions, but IF Logan’s deficit to date
    is ONLY 4 inches, then that is not a big deal, imho.

    1. They were filming at a house on Calumet street and occasionally were stopping traffic on that street.. Apparently they will also film at Mission Church. After filming in Boston, they’ll head to Toronto.

      1. Very fun and quite an impressive cast – sorry you couldn’t see what they were doing better. I’m still sad that I didn’t make it to daughter’s house when Matthew McConaughey was filming at end of her street……sighhhh

  58. Working on a new blog now.
    Hints of coming weather…
    -Very warm & sunny weekend
    -Warm with sun/clouds Monday
    -Lots of clouds and mild Tuesday-Wednesday
    -More sun, warming again Thursday-Friday
    -Sneak peek: Wet 1st weekend of October despite mild/dry pattern continuing overall

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