Drought Dent

132 Comments

3:54PM

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND DISCUSSION…

Post ridge, post cold front, now we have upper level low pressure sitting near to just southeast of New England and an associated surface low as well. Enough moisture is also present to result in periods of rain especially over southern and eastern portions of the WHW forecast area, which has developed today on the final day of September, and will continue tomorrow, the first day of October. By Thursday, low pressure will start to pull away and we’ll trend drier. A sliver of sunshine is expected on Friday between the departing low and another approaching trough from the west. This approaching trough will result in a wet day on Saturday with more beneficial rain possible. These few rain events will put a small dent in the developing drought conditions over southeastern New England, though they won’t even come close to putting an end to it.

After a drying trend Sunday into Monday, another system from the west brings a chance of showers by Tuesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast by Wednesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds remain. Lows 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break but limited sun at best. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM showers likely. Low 51. High 64.

SUNDAY: Sun & clouds, gusty breeze. Low 48. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 52. High 66.

132 thoughts on “Drought Dent”

    1. Yup.

      TK, re: pats

      I could agree IF they sucked through no fault of their own, however,
      this year they suck due to their own Ineptitude!

      Refusing to PAY the best players and letting them go.
      Not taking a high draft pick, but rather trading down for “value”.
      NOT able to evaluate true talent.

      They have gotten away with their smoke and mirrors antics (kool Aide stand as well) for far far far too long. It has FINALLY BITTEN THEM IN THE ASS!

  2. This rain hasn’t done much of anything really for the vegetation. I kicked some of the topsoil that was wet and just underneath it was bone dry. We need a good soaking, this is just a tease. Will we get that soaking on saturday?

  3. Betting by Thursday most of eastern and southern areas will have well over an inch qpf. I though the forecast was for drizzle etc…

      1. Thanks TK. Just seems these types of events always overproduce. This would be a beautiful storm in the winter for us ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

  5. Latest 6-10 & 8-14 continue the thought process shared by yours truly.
    Wetter than it’s been, but not excessive. Not as warm 6-10 but NOT below normal. Warmer 8-14. Here’s the thing. Just because the NAO may go negative does not mean we automatically dive into winter. It’s about other things too, and this set-up will not be a chilly one.

  6. TK – thank you!!

    Re Pats – no surprise that I echo your comment. I noticed you said you are still a fan. In all honesty your comment is the definition of a fan IMHO……

  9. TK, you predicted a wet October, and you did this back in August. And October starts on September 30th this year. I think we’re in for an extended period of wet weather. Not every day. But, no more 8 day stretches of dry for a very long time.

    1. The trend is for more wet weather systems (today/Wednesday, Saturday, next Tuesday…) but the key will be how wet these are. Do we end up near normal or wetter over this stretch? It’s still possible that if they under-produce we can continue the trend of below normal overall rain despite some more frequent wet weather episodes.

  10. CPC issued an update on ENSO yesterday and a rude crude summary is this:

    No El Nino observed at this time. Conditions are NEUTRAL.

    Chance of El Nino for Autumn/Winter for Northern Hemisphere is 60-65%.

    Indications are that if it does materialize it will be on the weak side.

    1. And IF so, what is the affect on our Winter?

      I keep hearing more and more about a colder and snowier than average
      Winter.

      1. I disagree with the cold/snowy scenario at this time. I agree with NOAA’s assessment and have been carrying this thought for quite a while. See no reason to change it.

        I can see solid cold shots, but not persistent cold, in the type of pattern that would result. But I would also expect precipitation to run below normal, including snowfall.

  11. Steadiest rain is pulling out. This episode will not be beneficial but only marginally helpful.

    Tomorrow may carry some benefit, more widespread, but not super-significant, just a bit helpful (had to reword that, it was confusing before).

  13. Steve Burton on WBZ had an interesting thought…call up Dante Scarneccia and bring him out of retirement. He was very serious! 😀

  14. Thanks, TK, for the clarification. Any rain is beneficial at this point, also for the pilings that support our old buildings in Back Bay. Apparently, low water table levels are not good for pilings.

  16. Thoughts:

    1) Can’t believe I am watching the B’s (preseason). Bergeron just scored. He is unreal!
    2) I am also praying for more rain.
    3) The Pats deserve all of this until they get the wakeup call that REAL TALENT actually costs REAL MONEY.
    4) I am thinking less snow this winter, but maybe heavier one-time snow dumps.
    5) Also, I do not want to re-live PV discussions and models that can’t get the day of the week right let alone the weather.

  17. There’s a link on the Taunton NWS web page saying changes are coming, October 22nd, I think, to the severe weather outlooks. That should be interesting !

    1. I wonder what category ….. Enhanced, moderate, high, etc a few of the scenarios in the past few years would have fallen into.

      The descriptions of what makes a scenario of enhanced, moderate or high at the bottom of the link are quite interesting.

  19. I got away with not wearing a jacket today… 😛 Though…I regretted it as I sped-walked in the drizzle and waited outside for the train in the evening…freezing 😛 I am not going to make the same mistake tomorrow….

    Happy almost October everyone!!! I’m excited. Wow, doesn’t it feel like September flew by?

  21. I know Patriots fans are frustrated with the Logan Mankins trade.

    How do you think Billy Beane’s trade in Oakland looks ?

    When he traded for Jon Lester, his team had the best record in baseball.

    They faltered badly after that trade, barely securing a wild card spot and then blew a multi-run lead in the late innings last night. One and done.

    We’re not alone in our frustration. 🙂

    Hoping for beneficial rains today !!!!

  22. I know we need the rain, but this weather is MISERABLE and DEPRESSING.

    Well, I have officially made it to October 1st WITHOUT wearing a jacket or coat.
    Almost grabbed one this morning, but did not.

    We’ll see how long it takes. I think last year I made it to about 10/15. We shall see.

    I think I have finally resigned myself to accept that the Pats don’t make the playoffs this year. I have officially LOWERED my expectations. Hopefully that will allow
    me to still enjoy losing efforts. 😀

    1. Oh they’ll make the playoffs, which is the sad part b/c they will have no chance once there. I think they win the AFC east at 9-7. IF they don’t win the AFC east, 9-7 will NOT be good enough for a wild card spot. Their only saving grace is the mediocrity that is the AFC east

      1. If what you say comes to be, what’s the point?
        They might just as well be 7-9. 😆 😆

        Perhaps they will surprise us all.

        1. Perhaps they will all turn into unicorns and show ponies and go undefeated all the way to the super bowl 😛

          1. it happened before pats lost the opener , won the next one went 11-5 and made it to the superbowl and won.. so i still have some hope

  23. YUCK the weather word of the day. With that said we do need the rain and at least the places that are getting the rain in CT are the places that are in moderate drought.
    The Patroits will make the playoffs since the AFC East is so weak but no way at this point I see a deep playoff run especially with a team that was fortunate to beat the worst team in football at home in week 3. I think after Sunday your look at 2-3 team and I would like to see if at anytime during the Bellicheck Brady era was New England below 500 at this point of the season.
    As far as baseball playoffs great way to start playoffs. Oakland fans I think are going to be very upset with Billy Bean for making that trade to get Lester. They won’t be able to resign Lester and you lost a great hitter. They rolled the dice and came up snake eyes.

    2. Um, Ah, Err…..

      Let me see now. ROTFLMAO

      Naming Winter storms is the DUMBEST thing I have ever heard!!

      TWC should be LAUGHED OFF THE AIR!

      INSANITY!)(@()#()!&@*#&!*(@&#(&!(@&*#*(@

      JOKEORAMA

    3. Cato …… Bahahahahahahah …… I guess I’m old enough to never take this name seriously.

      Linus ….. Uh oh, that innocent Snoopy character is bound to clobber us.

      Xander ….. A storm with great potential that will fizzle out.

    2. I’m always glad when you say it before I do – then the stones can be tossed at you. But I also love this weather. It is really raining here now and on my lunch break I sat on the porch just listening. Very relaxing.

  26. Our CBS station here in CT has been naming winter storms since the early 70s. The criteria to get a storm named is 6 plus inches of snow or 3/4 of ice accumulation or greater.

  27. I think W should be the name for the W storm.

    Then, in honor of our former commander and chief, we can misspeak about everything related to the storm.

    Perhaps ….

    Looking at the 580 line instead of the 850, seeing if its dynamite is intense (vs dynamics) and of course, the all important precipilation intensity (vs precipitation intensity). 🙂

    1. With all due respect I think ‘O’ the current president takes the cake with all the misspeaking he has been doing…Wish I could say more, but will leave it at that.

    2. I’ll stay away from Presidential humor next time. 🙂

      I actually liked W. Felt he was very human and was talking to me on my level. But, boy did he kill words. After all, misspeak is different than mislead.

    1. That right there should tell u that its bogus. They name a winter storm when there’s a sniff of a flurry.

      1. IF they truly desire to name Winter storms, then I would suggest
        ONLY naming those that are genuine BLIZZARDS and NOTHING
        else. 😀

      1. I feel like that’s been the type of pattern we’ve been in for the majority of the summer. Maybe not as dramatic, but general western ridge eastern trough

        1. We all remember what happened when the NAO went negative in October 2011…widespread accumulating snows and the 2011-12 winter ended pretty much before it even began.

      1. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

        There is PLENTY of room for Error with long range
        weather forecasts. We shall see.

  30. Its amazing after that October Noreaster in 2011 that changed the pattern as the NAO and AO were positive for that winter as Boston had it second least amount of snowfall on record.

    1. I expect a not particularly good winter for snowlovers. Dry Septembers usually produce low snow totals. Dave Epstein mentioned that and from the stats from those previous winters that I have been observing, I concur.

          1. This type of situation is never handled well with the models and is not usually very predictable. When you have this setup, some places can end up with a ton of rain.

  40. I’ve been in a meeting all afternoon.

    As of now, precip is fairly light. The heavy stuff has quit. 😀

  41. It has been quite steady all day here in Plymouth. Football practice has been cancelled for the 2nd night in a row. That’s a first for the season.

    2. HADI and old salty if you gonna fire shots at the patriots when they are not doing so well. here is one. Your “franchise” qb rg3 is a freakin joke of a qb. waste of money when you have cousins,

  44. Flash flood watch for all of SE Mass. NWS says that rain may increase in these areas overnight or heavy axis could lie just offshore.

      1. Combo from yesterday and today I went a little too high.
        Barry nailed the temps for this week, he even showed rain for yesterday and today. I don’t think anyone guessed this much rain

  48. On another Subject, Looks like Barry Burbank was SPOT ON with temps
    in the 50s for Tue, Wed and Thurs. 😀 😀 😀

    We didn’t see this coming.

  50. We were due! So many times this summer it was supposed to rain and didn’t. Well now, we didn’t really expect it to and it did. In a way the weather this week represents the most dramatic pattern shift in a long time. We went from 80s and sunny over the weekend following a very long stretch of almost exclusively dry weather to 50s this week for at least 3 days with rain. Looks like more rain is coming Saturday (could be some heavy downpours) and early next week, too.

  51. So far:
    Boston > 1″
    Some towns on Cape cities > 2″

    I think some towns on the Cape may be pushing toward 3″.

  59. In spite of all the very cool weather the last few days, it still remains an overall mild airmass over New England.

    While its about 55F where we all live, it is a rather balmy 45F atop Mt. Washington.

  61. .33 framingham.

    Coastal I’m surprised you don’t have more.

    I’m hoping storms this winter do not head out over cape

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