Troptober

138 Comments

11:27PM

Tropical air is on a journey northward into New England and will continue to flood into the region through Thursday on a southerly wind. It will be quite warm on Wednesday even with just partial sunshine, but a cold front moving into the region on Thursday will bring showers, including a band or two of heavier rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. This will likely have some impact on the Patriots/Jets game in Foxboro.

By Friday, the wet weather and high humidity be pushing off to the northeast but around a very broad low pressure area there will still be mild air blowing into the region on a west southwest wind. The trend to cool will be a stair-step downward with 70s Friday, 60s Saturday, and 50s by Sunday as a series of troughs and fronts move through and winds gradually shifting more west to northwest by the end of the weekend when it will feel more like the end of October.

Early next week will be governed by high pressure and fair weather with cool to seasonable air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-80, cooler South Coast. Humid. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 58.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 61.

138 thoughts on “Troptober”

    1. It won’t really have the chance to get all that uncomfortable. We have much less sun time now, and there will also be a gusty breeze with this.

  2. “Hi, how may I help you?”

    HIIIIIIIIIIII IMAGINARY DRIVE THROUGH SPEAKER! I’d like a small pumpkin coffee. Extra cream, four splenda. And could I also have an apple pie?

    “Okay, is that all today?”

    No, not all today. Could I have this every day for the rest of my life, actually?

    KTHANKXBYE!!!

    *Drives away*

    😀

  3. Thanks TK!

    I see you have changed your mind regarding the temps tomorrow…near if not exactly 80 degrees. In your previous blog, you were calling for lower temps than yesterday.

    Of course, Pete was calling for 80 if not a bit higher all along. 😉

    1. He’s just that much better than I am. 😉

      Actually I think we get enough sun for the boost…

  4. TK – What are your thoughts on the severity of the thunderstorms Thursday night? Could there be any kind of delay during the game due to lightning, winds, etc.?

    1. I think there is a low to moderate probability of a few lightning flashes but probably not the type of storm that would cause a delay.

      Any wind problems would be very isolated, not expecting to see much of that. Rain will be the main issue.

      Another wet Thursday night game with the Jets. 😛

    1. Trended every so slightly west on track, lets hope that continues, because I think it has very little chance going east of them.

      Of course, every little jog further west, I’d think, gives a slight increase in tapping moisture from the hurricane.

  8. A shot of warm/muggy air and a wet system with or without a tropical connection are actually fairly common October events.

  9. Did anyone catch Brett Anderson’s latest interpretation of the EURO long range.

    I guess, assuming he is reading it correctly, that the EURO is showing a strong flow off of the Pacific, flooding most of the US with milder than normal pacific air for a good part of later October into early November.

    Would be nice if that pans out. 🙂 Sorry Hadi. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  10. Very Sunny out there. I sure think we make a run at 80, if not surpassing that mark.

    I believe the record at Boston for today is 85. Don’t think we make that, but wouldn’t
    it be something?

    Hmmm just checked the 8AM obs. 63 at Logan with SOUTHEAST wind.
    If that wind direction stays in place, no 80 at the coast, that’s for sure.
    We shall see IF it turns more to the South or SSW. 😀

    1. That’s just part of a light variable wind from a decoupled atmosphere. Give it time. Though I think Logan gets to 77 today.

    1. Scary close, actually.

      It looks to hit NEW FOUNDLAND with still 80 mph winds that
      far North in Mid-October. I find that astonishing!!!!!

      1. Happens with mid latitude cyclones any time of year, just not frequently in the warm season. 🙂

    1. 06Z GFS total precip for storm:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141015+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

      06Z NAM total precip:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141015+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model

      0Z CMC total CMC

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=072&lang=en&map=qc

      50-75 mm = “about” 2-3 inches

    1. Actually they called for warm temps for quite a while before they changed it. But watch for that chill-down to be rather short-lived.

  15. Brett Anderson doesn’t discuss anything after the the Nov 3-9 timeframe. NWS comes out with seasonal forecast this afternoon. Very interested to see what they have to say.

    I have a feeling winter starts real slow into late Dec. I think similar to 2010 when everyone was saying winter is a dud etc..and it wasn’t even the end of Dec and we know what happened in Jan/Feb. I think we will hear the same stuff from several people oh winter is over blah blah and they will get surprised in late Jan/Feb.

    1. We always have people writing Winter off BEFORE the Solstice. Every year. Somewhere. It never fails to make me laugh. 🙂

  16. I think the safest bet is to listen to Joe B’s long range winter forecast.
    No matter what the pattern, he’ll forecast cold and snowy, because that’s what he wants. But at least it will give people that like winter weather something to be excited about for a while, even if it doesn’t happen. 😉

  18. Oh for sure ….. I think I said in the post that Brett was talking about late October into early November. 🙂

    1. I’ll think about Jan – March …… oh around December 15th. 🙂 Maybe the pattern then and what has happened the next 6 weeks (now thru early December) will shed some light on things. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. If anyone is interested …

    Bermuda’s weather service is http://www.weather.bm

    Nothing too out of the ordinary on there right now, just the special statements, etc one might expect.

    They do, however, have a nice radar for the island, which may have some interesting images coming up in a few days. (under the tab imagery on the top 1/3rd of the page)

    1. Just in time to add uncertainty.

      NHC has classified Gonzalo as a cat 4 at 11am, I think winds at 130mph, pressure another mb lower at 949 mb.

  23. Thanks TK. It was “Walk to School Day” for my boys so they were happy they could wear shorts and be comfortable for their walk. Definitely lucked out in the weather department for this event. 🙂

  24. BIG temperature jumps from 10 am to 11am.

    I think I also noticed that yesterday’s 60F – 62F dewpoints are now running 64F – 66F.

    The halls in our building are fairly stuffy.

  28. outside all day doing a fall cleanup and the weather is perfect not to hot just perfect. im hoping tk is right on target with his extended forcast warm till next year very little cold

  29. Generally less sun here than yesterday and a cooler breeze. Even though temps are a tick above where they were yesterday it feels cooler today for some reason

  31. I don’t see anytime in the near future that my flowers and other assorted flowers we planted in April of dieing from a freeze, I guess that’s good news 🙂

    1. Yes, there was.

      There was also a mesoscale discussion earlier for the area.

      When I looked, it appeared any rotation was gone.

  34. From SPC a short while ago from the 2 day convective outlook:

    …LONG ISLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
    A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING EAST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD…BEFORE GRADUALLY CONTINUING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES/ AIR SUPPORTING
    THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
    RATES. HOWEVER…FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
    INSTABILITY WILL BE SURFACE BASED…OR NEAR SURFACE BASED…ACROSS
    AT LEAST LONG ISLAND…IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL
    HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION…BUT
    LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE THE SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT.

        2. We are complete opposites. It bothers people when they realize how much patience I have. 🙂

          1. Tk, on a serious note:

            I know any severe threat for tomorrow is very low, but is it ZERO? I think the Probability is very low but NOT non-zero. What are your thoughts?

            1. It’s not zero but it’s going to take quite an embedded convective cell within the heavy rain area to bring damaging wind to the surface. I can see this as a low % chance in isolated locations, with the threat of tornado even lower than that. I know why they won’t leave it out of the forecast now. In the past, it wouldn’t have been worth a mention.

    1. Thanks.

      The question is Keep and Eye on it for what?

      Coastal Flooding
      Pouring rains with river, stream and road flooding

      OR dare I say it?

      “possible” Inland SNOWS????????????

      1. Just the general set-up, should that all evolve with low pressure a little closer to the coast.

    2. i better not see a snow flake i remember the last time. almost nothin in terms of snow that year. 🙁 would not want that again expecially since im planning on getting back into ski racing 😉

      1. Snow showers don’t really count. It’s accumulating snow in October that usually means Winter’s a dud. 😛

  37. His prior tweets were talking about the cold that is going to get in here on Sunday. For this particular one he was hinting at inland flakes possible for the higher terrain in his replies to people…

  38. A shift to chilly weather for the end of the weekend and at least into the middle of next week. But don’t make the mistake of thinking that suddenly Winter’s here and we stay cold. That would be very very far from the truth.

    1. Yes. It’s almost impossible to get into a non-fluctuating pattern in this part of the world.

      There is a strong signal for a shift back to mild for a while last week of October into November.

      1. Agreed, but there is a noticeable difference when you go from high’s of mid to upper 70’s to 50’s as opposed to Winter when it can go from 30’s to 40’s or Summer 70’s to 80’s or 90.

        1. I agree with you Scott. Temp fluctuations seem more pronounced and shocking to the system during the “in-between” seasons (spring and fall).

  40. 6-10/8-14 combo.
    NORMAL temps.
    Near to above normal precip.

    People are going to see the chilly bullseye to the W and SW of New England and automatically think it applies here as well. They did that last time a big dip and chilly spell occurred in the Midwest and South.

      1. Actually, the more I think about this, the more I realize that no one……not one other weather blog…..has Charlie. I think we can capitalize on that.

  47. There is something I really like about an unseasonably warm Autumn night. It’s the warm and humid air COMBINED with the smell of fallen leaves. Love it. Of course being somewhat allergic to leaf-born mold spores isn’t as great but… oh well. 🙂

    1. Dale and Holley were having a long discussion about them today. Holley kept saying they needed a scorer and pointed out that both Kessel and Seguin netted 30+ goals last year. I supported the Kessel move, but think they were/are wrong about Seguin.

      Goodness, for as solid a defensive game as they play and having the best goalie in the league, shouldnt they have one feared goal scorer.

      3. Same thing every year. I don’t mean Pete. I mean in general. 🙂

        And people laugh at me because I don’t rule snow out in March and April. 🙂

  50. TK please keep Halloween forecast in the back of your mind. I am sure a lot of people are curious. Thanks.

  52. SPC Does have southern parts of CT RI and MA in the 5% general thunderstorm look for tomorrow. I don’t think there will be severe weather in SNE tomorrow but I would not rule out a few spots seeing a non severe thunderstorm.

  53. I think we will see some T-storms tomorrow, scattered but it would not shock bc of timing and the humid warm air that is currently entrenched. Not to disagree JJ with you but I think tomorrow will surprise people in terms of embedded T-Storms.

  55. I could never get sick of 70’s and sun, hopefully it continues, I’ve seen a few reports that Halloween may be mild after this short cool spell, all we can do is hope 🙂 goodnight

  57. Getting past this warm spell, I cant with 100% confidence say we’ve seen the last 80F.

    Unlike last time, I wont say outright that I think there are more 80F or 80F+ days coming. This due to now a sub 39 degree sun angle and only 11 hrs of sunlight and still dropping quickly.

    But, the pattern is still overall above average and the “heat budget” in the southeast hasn’t exactly been depleted a lot.

    I’d still put a shot at 80F at 50 percent happening sometime in the 10/26 thru 11/5 timeframe.

    1. Since records have been kept at Boston, the latest 80F + reading recorded was on November 2nd, 1950 and I think it was 83F.

      Most of the record highs for the remainder of October are 80F or higher, with the exception of 3 days, where the record highs are 78F or 79F.

      So, the atmosphere, under a most unusual setup has shown the capability in the past to hit 80F for another 2 – 3 weeks.

      1. It must have been a strange October 1963, when on October 25th thru 27th !!!, Boston had record highs of 80F, 84F and 85F. Good gracious !!

        I wonder how much it snowed that following winter …….

      1. According to Accuweather.com the northeast owns the snow this upcoming winter and below normal snow for the Midwest…fwiw. 🙂

  61. With the exception of the 1962-63 season (30.9″) the 1960s decade had above normal snowfall through the 1971-72 winter season.

    Now those were the days… 😀

    1. I don’t mean to sound negative, but that’s when a lot of new englanders were fleeing to the sun belt 70’s-90’s since 2000 it has slowed some but showing signs of picking back up, we shall see 🙂

  62. I’d say its only 50% cloudy and yet, one of these quick passing clouds was raining a pretty decent shower under it.

  63. I just put in a quick forecast update. There is no discussion on that post. You all can make that up in the comments. 😀

    Full post this afternoon!

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