Quick Update

188 Comments

7:29AM

Only a quick forecast update. Discussion later!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region early. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 55.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 54.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

188 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Gonzalo strengthened yet again overnight.

    There sure is a wall of water to our south and west.

    I think Logan’s and everyone elses low overnight was somewhere between 65F and 70F, right near or even slightly above the warmest average annual lows in mid to late July.

    1. although, interestingly, at 7am, Logan and Beverly dropped off a bit into the low 60s with more of a light east wind.

      Hmmm….. wonder if a small scale convergence boundary is about to set up, perhaps adding to enhancement of the rainfall ?????

      1. Not saying here…the consensus on TV was starting in the afternoon so I was waiting to clean my driveway grate until lunch so I got a nice surprise this morning when it was pouring out. You had it nailed.

  5. Shotime, I noticed the colors too and thought of TK’s background on this blog. I ended up opening all of the blinds so we could see the gold glow while we woke up.

  7. Good morning! Damp here with off and on showers and sprinkles, appears rain will begin around 10am
    GO PATRIOTS!! GAMEDAY!!

  8. Good morning. Awoke to 69.8 Degrees at 7AM. WOW! That is unusually warm
    for that time of day this time of year. It is Oct 16th!!!

    Good chunk of Rain just to our West. Let’s hope it is OUT OF HERE prior
    to kick off tonight. I think we have a chance.

    I saw the Accu Weather Winter forecast. Seem that there are MORE forecasts
    for cold and snow rather than the opposite. What will it do? What will it do?

      1. Yesterday, the hurricane models had it going West of Bermuda.
        Now, the GFDL has it going just West of Bermuda, putting them
        in the right front quadrant. The HWRF has it going DIRECTLY over Bermuda, which actually, in this case may be worse.

        1. I wonder if Bermuda has ever faced a hurricane of this magnitude taking the track that it looks to take

          1. I seem to recall a whopper or two that Cantore’s been out there for, but I apologize that I cant specify a year, name of storm or exact strength.

        2. Not good at all. Thank goodness the surge can basically go around the island, as opposed to just building and building like it does on a concave coastline.

          Looks like their hurricane building codes for wind are going to be put to a serious test.

          1. One other good thing, the island is NOT flat and right at sea level. Much of the island is elevated some. Most homes are well above water level.

            We stayed in a house for a week once and we had to be at least 100 feet above water level and it was just across the road from the beach.

            They will weather the storm far far better than
            any of the Caribbean islands, that’s for sure.

            Hopefully Gonzalo will not take a heavy toll.

        3. JR had said yesterday am that it was just west putting Bermuda in the worst area. And didn’t they just have a hurricane/TS??

  10. As of 5:30AM this morning, BERMUDA is officially under a HURRICANE WARNING.

    And thanks again TOM, for that link to Bermuda weather.

  13. Hi everyone, long time no see! hope all is well. Bring on the Chilly weather! this humidity is killing me!

  15. My company has many vital servers in Bermuda. Will see what happens! If it goes down, no money 🙂

    1. Sorry to hear that. Let’s hope for a pass MORE to the WEST
      OR that every thing survives if there is a major hit.

  16. Definitely has a tropical feel outside! Trying to cook up some ribs on the grill for a Patriots game tailgate tonight… Too steamy!

  18. Just had torrential rains for about 20 minutes and I was taken aback when I looked at the radar and saw it was just that little blob of showers now over Boston Radar.

    It must be torrents also out in central Mass. !!

  19. And Ana …. much weaker than Gonzalo, but its breathing so much better today on its north side (the nice fanning out of the high clouds).

    The circulation looks more centered to the overall cloud pattern and its firing up some convection over the center. I’m interested to watch this system as well.

    1. I think that map says that there is a greater than 40% chance we will be warmer than average. It does not say anything about what the difference from average temperature would be.

        1. Ok, now tell me HOW ACCUWEATHER and NOAA
          come up with POLAR OPPOSITE Winter forecasts
          with the SAME DATA PRESENTED.

          Who is weighing what differently?????

          I find this baffling and it really blows my mind!

          There are clearly 2 camps for this Winter.

          You know what, draw a line down the middle and we
          get a perfectly AVERAGE Winter. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Based on what you are seeing on radar or wishful thinking so you don’t get wet at the game? Oh wait, the owner’s luxury box is covered so you should be all set. 🙂 Go PATS!!!

  25. There is a CRAPLOAD of lightning just to our South associated with that BLOB
    of RAIN heading this way. I can’t say for sure IF the lightning comes with it or not.

    Does anyone remember that awesome lightning strike site. I have a crappy one
    here at work. I have the good one bookmarked at home, but not here.

    Thanks

  26. FWIW, the 12Z NAM simulated radar reflectivity does NOT have the RAIN out
    of Eastern sections, including Foxboro until about 11PM or so.

    Now I’ll check the HRRR

    HRRR has the heavy stuff out of there around 7PM, but keeps some lighter stuff around
    for a couple of more hours.

    NAM keeps the really heavy stuff going until late.

    1. That’s AWESOME!!!

      Did you do it? Great job if you did.
      If you didn’t do it, Excellent job locating it!

      I LOVE IT!!

  28. Is it just my radar or is this thing hauling fast??? At the rate is appears to be going I am not sure how it could last too late.

  29. Going back to the discussion earlier when Bermuda was hit by a major hurricane I believe Fabian in 2003 was a major hurricane when it impacted Bermuda.

      1. Some pretty strong echoes down by Taunton now.
        Heading this way.

        On the Nexrad, it is NOT showing any lightning.

  31. I suspect TK’s winter forecast will reflect much more toward the NOAA forecast than the AccuWeather.com forecast.

        1. I’m going to stick with my tried and not so true method….use birthdays and other such numbers 😉

  32. Pretty typical October washout day for the Northeast today. Helps a lot with our rainfall deficit at least. Some real heavy stuff just to my south and west here in Plymouth, NH. Flash flood warning just went up for the Nashua area.

    12z Eur0, GFS, and CMC all looked to be in pretty good agreement on an awful forecast for much next week. Clouds, showers, and steadier rains from around Tuesday all the way through the weekend from a jammed up coastal storm. Hopefully that changes!

  33. NOAA’s long range continues to agree with early thinking from WHW. The only difference at this stage of the game is that I believe they may be going just a touch too wet in the long run, but it is a low probability of above normal precipitation – really not much different than equal chances. That could go either way but I think it will trend drier on updates to come.

    Temps on the mild side of normal would result from an overall mild regime with short-lived sharp cold shots. This would indicate a pattern of split jet streams that RARELY phase in the East with stormy/wet weather across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, and a northward-displaced polar jet.

    Sounds like the same thing I typed 4 weeks ago. 🙂 Reruns. 😉

  34. Axis of heavy rain will be EAST of the stadium by kickoff. They will avoid a deluge unless a few hang-back cells are around early in the game. 2nd half definitely better.

      1. That model can be so perfect, or fail so miserably. If not for that occasional spasm, I’d love it more. But it looks like it’s on target this time. 🙂

        1. Taunton NWS seems to love it.

          It’s seems to have been generally good, but even I have seen it mess up, especially with snowfall during Winter.

  35. TK,

    Would you care to highlight the differences in the forecast and why
    Yourself and NOAA have gone in the direction you are? Can you elaborate
    on what the others are seeing and the Error of their ways?

    I am most curious.

    1. I have not read NOAA’s text discussion yet but I can guess this:

      1) They are forecasting based on actual data and science versus what they want to happen (yes, many outfits do that – surprise surprise).
      2) They probably feel that El Nino will be weak and late coming on and that other factors will hold back the influence of early Siberian snow. Besides, if Siberia goes dry, they will lose a fair amount of that snow as well as what remains turning more granular and having less impact than fresh and frequently replenished snow would.
      3) They still have to consider more factors with a month to go before the next update, so they are playing the “persistence” game in keeping the outlook very similar. We used this technique in college sometimes.

      1. Thank you very much TK. I always like to know what’s behind
        a forecast and you have eloquently stated it. Thanks again.

    1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!
      😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

      Why doesn’t he tell us how he really feels.

      Btw, CPC forecast = NOAA forecast? No?

    2. That would be an observation better made after the forecast busts.. not 2 months and change before Winter actually starts… yes?

      But to each their own. 🙂

  37. So a little note that helps with understanding the uncertainty of medium range forecasting. This is IMPORTANT to remember. A couple weeks ago, many would have forecast a warmer than normal week of October 20-26, but now it’s pretty certainly going to be a chilly week. Why? Does this mean that I have to change my Winter outlook? Absolutely not. One of the contributing factors to this sudden shift to cool is the atmosphere adjusting to a very large storm in the North Atlantic earlier this week that had been under-forecast by the guidance. Another factor is the hurricane in the Atlantic. Though it’s a small system, it’s potent, and once it moves into the northern latitudes and transitions to post-tropical (I like the term extratropical better, call me old school), the overall pattern in this part of the hemisphere will kind of shuffle around a bit. But the overall longer term indices are such that the pattern will eventually snap back to what it would have been heading for anyway. This likely means that as we head toward the final days of this month and into November, we’ll see temperatures bounce back to near to above normal.

    1. The way TK and NOAA are forecasting this upcoming Winter, the 1st and last flakes will fall around Ground Hog Day. 😀

  39. Just took a peek at the radar. Unless this batch of rain retrogrades back to the west, it will be out of here long before they even begin their warm-ups at Gillette.

  40. Its getting dark and rain is about to commence. Tropical, DP near 70F. A/C running.

    Noticing drier air is eventually going to wrap in from the southwest. I think NYC has one of the lowest dewpoints in the northeast.

    3. I agree Ace !

      OS, I found this on the Bermuda Weather Service site under imagery. I also like that Bermuda is highlighted and for this particular weather setup, being able to see the front thats currently working through our region.

    1. I looked at 3 different lightning detection sites. Closest lightning is
      “just” South of the Vineyard and extending South and SE from there.

  49. Heaviest rain yet, street is a river !! Its raining so hard, the visibility is perhaps a 1/4 mike at best.

    2. Doesn’t matter. Past performance does not guarantee future results. They also don’t often bust 2 years in a row.

  51. Thanks to NHC 5pm discussion, the last major hurricane to hit Bermuda was Fabian in 2003.

    Perhaps that was the one I was recalling ?????

      1. Yup! Its so bright. I live about 2 miles from Gillette so i think its safe to say the rain will be done well before kickoff

  57. Just curious TK – What data is AccuWeather.com and other outlets basing its “snowy” forecast on? Is it banking on El Nino coming on earlier and/or stronger than expected?

    1. I have no idea. I didn’t read their discussion yet.

      I can see some of the ideas of where this would come from, but frankly, basing a solid forecast on only partial data is not really a wise decision in my opinion. I have my leanings about winter too but I’m far from being final on it.

    1. Tell them the key is…….watch the weather reports. It is a new and novel approach I know but if you help spread the word, it may catch on 🙂

    2. What wind? Wind was never a big part of this forecast, only some threat of isolated pockets of wind with some cells. Read that is “some threat”.

      What people need to learn how to do is understand the information being presented to them. That is partly their own fault and partly that of the media.

      1. Thanks as well Jimmy! If we finish off the Jets, then only Buffalo and Miami will remain in contention for the AFC East.

  63. Gillette and rocking dont necessarily go together. Nothing against the Pats as a team, its the lack of noise they seem to make. Now Buffalo last week, that was a fan base that can make some noise. Not sure why Gillette can’t get loud. Even TB12 has called out the fans on more than one occasion

      1. I think some of it has to do with the way Gillette was designed and built. They didnt think about acoustics, its too open. Some of it is the fans though and a lack if knowledge for when to be loud and when to be quiet. I remember a few years ago brady was trying to quiet the crowd when they were on offense, lol

  64. “What happened to the rain?” is being asked by people who took yesterday morning’s forecast as the final word. It was clear by last night that the axis of heaviest rain would be east of the stadium by game time.

    That said, an area of light to moderate rain will cross that area after 7:30PM up until about the time of kick-off.

        1. A mistake? An updated forecast that is correct is a mistake?

          Clearly the mistake is in the way people did not pay attention. Oops!

    1. The “storm” is bands of rain along and ahead of a cold front parented by a broad low pressure area far to our north. This is what I mean by not really understanding things and checking for the latest info.

      It may have been drying out nicely but that area will get wet one more 2 more times this evening.

  66. The storm occurred Charlie!! Do you always have to be like this?

    Gillette is not a loud stadium in comparison to others. They have a great home field advantage but not due to the fans. It’s due to having an excellent all time great QB.

      1. You disagree you all want bc you refuse to see it. You can’t be objective. Facts are facts Gillette is not historically a loud stadium. Ask anyone that. They are that good at home of TB12. Arguing with you is pointless bc you are way too attached. I still enjoy it though.

  67. I’m not sure what people were expecting. There were bands of moderate to heavy rain. Did everyone get 2-4 inches of rain? NO. But that was not expected. Wind was also never a major concern, just a low risk possibility that did not occur (thankfully).

    This isn’t Hurricane Gonzalo. It’s a cold front.

    1. Forecast was right on Target. No complaints here.
      Today was as expected. Nothing too hard to take. Just some
      well needed rain. 😀

    3. I was expecting at least a foot of snow……is that still forecast or should I put my shovel away 😉

  68. Moderate to briefly heavy shower on the east side of Woburn in the last few minutes. Everything soaked again.

  69. Here’s exactly what DT had to say about the CPC Winter Forecast:

    I have mixed feelings on this. First of all the CPC winter forecast is AWFUL. No let me correct that … it sucks Moose Balls. If one goes back over the last 15 years there is not a single time that CPC has had any portion of the NE US in Below Normal temps. Not once. In the severe winter of 2009-10 which was very cold over the Midwest and last year CPC only showed ” equal chances ”
    SECOND their forecast is not a forecast at all. All CPC has done is re issued its standard boilerplate El Nino crap…. all El Nino Events bring mild winter to the central and northern third of the US. It is sooooo 1980s / 1990s crap
    THIRD as in the case with those wretched smart phone 5 ..10.. and 14 weather apps that are always wrong …part of me LOVES this CPC forecast… Like last year this one will making me look goooood.

      2. My HD Plasma set is now 10 years old, and outperforms any of the newer sets (Ultra HD excepted). 😀 They make em too cheaply these days.

  71. So who decided that having the Bruins/Canadiens and Pats/Jets playing at the same time as a good idea? 😛

    I’m thankful for DVR right now. 🙂

    1. Pats/Jets live, Bruins/Habs right after on DVR. Shorter hockey game, easier to get through that.

    1. That’s the job of the Montreal Canadiens. 😉

      I haven’t watched the B’s game yet but I am going to go out on a limb and predict at least one call against Montreal for diving, or “embellishment” because the NHL is cracking down on that one this season.

      I don’t have a good feeling about this game from a Bruins standpoint, but it’s early in the season and there will be plenty of time to rebound from the slow start. I don’t expect a Stanley Cup winning team this year but I do expect a team that makes the playoffs.

  81. 18 gfs has our narly nor’easter next week for several days. Looks miserable all week. Beaches are going to take a beating.

    1. Astronomical high tides by midweek too – will add to some coastal flooding and splash-over. We may stay in the 40s for 1 or 2 days.

      And speaking of… I just posted a new blog!

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