Downstepping

186 Comments

11:05PM

Trough/front #1 is about to push offshore as of late night Thursday / early morning Friday. With it goes the rain and humidity, but Friday will stay rather mild even as drier air flows into the region on a southwest to west wind around broad low pressure to the north. Trough/front #2 will quietly cross New England Friday night taking temperatures down just a touch for Saturday, with stronger trough/front #3 coming through Saturday night / early Sunday with a few showers, and this one will send temperatures into a tumble, resulting in a much cooler day for Sunday. We then get to enjoy a fair but chilly day Monday, but the pattern will evolve into a chilly and unsettled one for the better part of next week as an upper low drops through the Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley by the start of the week then slowly moves over and just south of southern New England by the middle of next week. This will result in an unsettled and chilly episode that may last several days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 50.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 43. High 48.

186 thoughts on “Downstepping”

  2. Narly nor’easter coming up next week. Double barrel low, this would be a sweet set up in let’s say late Jan when water is cold ❄️❄️❄️

  4. Looks like Pats will win this but fans must be disappointed with defense against an awful Jets team. Good win though.

  6. Lucky win for the Pats. Time of possession was against them big time. A win is win no matter how you get it but I imagine BB isn’t going to be to be too happy.

    1. Mine too. I thought Nick Folk was going to beat them. Thank goodness that was blocked because he’s close to the best kicker in the NFL and I’ll bet he’d have made that.

  8. I’m not going to completely panic about the D yet. They have in essence a 3 day bye now to rest and then a full week of preparation for the Bears and their outstanding running back, not to mention 2 or 3 excellent receivers.

    I really think the Pats philosophy the last many years is ……. Sit back, its ok to gain tons of yards on them, but allow no BIG plays, then tighten in the red zone giving up mostly field goals and know that Brady and co. can outscore you.

    I think if people view it that way, then there is plenty of hope.

    1. I agree this sun night then Thursday night is tough, the jets played like they had nothing to lose, they also came to play,

  11. Charlie I am sure the weather was a factor. Granted some places it’s not but rain can put a damper on a crowd.

    1. That and the fact that the Pats really didn’t look good. Can’t help but feel frustrated when you are sitting in the stands watching that defense.

      1. Shouldn’t matter if your a Patriots fan sue 🙂 as a fan u r supposed to help your team, ican always tell when at the game who cares and who doesn’t and just want to be seen

        1. Yep…I agree and it happens at the Sox, Celtics games too…Everybody on their cell and waving to the cameras, etc. The Bruins seem to have a lot less of it.

  12. Ok from the pats game
    1, where the heck did the fans go again.
    2 yes this was the jets they are now 1-6 but even when they sucked patriots struggle and thier one streangth is the front lines of both defense and o-line
    3 i know mayo is hurt but, we all ready knew the defense weakness is against the run which is what the jets do best
    4 i expected a close one
    5 against bears, they have good recievers which will be kept at bay by our secondary, im worried about the run again
    6 we need bolden to step it up

    also in my meteorology class today we are to give a forecast for any where but here in new england , this is gonna be easy 😀

  14. TK, how is the weather in Keene this weekend? I saw on NWS that there is a chance of a spot shower tomorrow or tomorrow night.

  15. Good monring,

    Nice day so far.

    Thoughts on Pats game.

    1. The Jets came to PLAY. They were no pushovers and sorry, but they are a better
    team than advertised. Gino Smith is improving. They almost beat Denver last week and have been IN every game they have played, even though they are now 1-6.
    2. The Pat’s defense was oh so Porous. They clearly miss Mayo. (Note: they could have
    used Tommy Kelly!) They are now #31 out of 32 in run defense. HORRID!
    3. Brady had to run for his life ALL night. It is a testament to his ability that he could
    deliver 3 TD passes under those conditions. Way to go Tom!!
    4. Gronk and Edelman had off nights with a couple of uncharacteristic drops each.

    A win is a win and I’ll take it. BUT they have some WORK to do.

    Side note: Nice to see Amendola get some action and deliver with a WHALE of a catch for a TD.

    Lafell looked fantastic early on.

    In time, they could have an elite receiver corp.

    1. Gonzalo is down to 130 MPH as of the last update and it is NOT looking as
      good on satellite. All good news for Bermuda.

      1. I had a different interpretation of the satellite OS on Gonzalo.

        I look at that northwest quadrant of the storm and see the front yanking some of the cloudiness away and worry that its actually increasing the ventilation aloft on the northwest side.

        A few hours ago, I thought that maybe the eye of the hurricane might go over Bermuda or even 5 or 10 miles southeast, but the last couple of hours seemed to nudge more northerly again.

        Hope everyone’s going to be alright down there.

        1. On Satellite the eye was clearly obliterated. Certainly NOT a sign of strengthening. Hopefully, that trend will continue and Bermuda will be spared the worst of it.
          Let us hope so.

          BTW, looking at the latest guidance from ALL models, consensus is a pass “just” the West of the Island.

          Worth noting: HWRF gives a direct hit, more or less.

          21Z today

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014101706/hwrf_mslp_wind_08L_6.png

          0Z today

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014101706/hwrf_mslp_wind_08L_7.png

          I don’t think there would be a worse track than this???

  19. I’m hoping Bermuda gets spared. We love it there and plan on going back in the near future . The news I heard this morning was not good. Even if down graded a bit still winds overview 100mph. I really hope the island makes out ok, we love it there.

    1. I’m with you John. My wife and I have been there 5 times.
      We took the kids with us once and they loved it as well.

    3. We are on it at work today…monitoring systems. We have webcams out there and looks like a normal day but I know that will change.

      1. Take a look at the webcam Ace posted. That wind is beginning
        to HOWL.

        Hope all works out well for your company.

        Hopefully the Island does aok.

        1. Our stuff is in what was an old military bunker and has crazy thick walls, etc, and underground power…however a any line cut or drop will do it.

  20. Finally some recon info on Ana.

    992 mb, flight level winds in the 50 – 70 kts range.

    A fairly decent tropical storm.

    1. xml button Tropical Storm ANA Advisory Number 16
      Issued at 500 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014
      SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
      ———————————————-
      Location: 15.7N 154.2W
      ABOUT 280 MI…455 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
      ABOUT 455 MI…735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
      Maximum sustained winds: 70 MPH…110 KM/H
      Present movement: WNW or 295 degrees AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
      Minimum central pressure: 992 MB…29.30 INCHES

  26. A friend of mine is boarding a cruise ship in Boston today with the intention of heading to Bermuda. They have now changed their itinerary to go to the Nassau and NCL’s private island in The Bahamas. Better than going to Canada which has happened in the past when storms are hitting Bermuda. Hoping all the Bermudians stay safe.

  27. Bermuda now with Wind EAST at 33 mph, indicating that the storm will either
    pass just West or perhaps pass overhead, BUT NOT to the East.

    Looking at the Bermuda webcam, the weather is really closing in on them now.

  29. I’m not worried. By the end of the winter we will hit around our average in terms of snowfall. We can always count on that one anomalous storm to tip the scales even in a less than conducive pattern.

      2. Come the snow forecast, I’m going HIGH. Someone has to do it, so it might just as well be I. 😆

  31. Ace posted this earlier. I am keeping a Window open with this running.
    Here is a Bermuda Webcam from the Royal Naval Dock Yard in Somerset.

    The water being show is from part of Great Sound and NOT the open ocean.

    Really getingt socked in down there.

    http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

      1. I’ve been trying to find a cam from Horseshoe beach which is a very exposed section of shoreline on the southeastern end of the island.

        1. Yes and that beach would be susceptible to the storm
          surge as well. One of my all time favorites.

          Let us know IF you find one.

          I have a feeling the only one is the one you found.

  32. That is a really neat webcam! Conditions have definitely deteriorated. When I was watching the camera actually went down for a few moments.

  34. Wow. Looks rough. A friend talked to man who owns hotel where they stay. He said NBC news crew is staying there. Lots of banging and boarding up.

    1. That’s an awesome webcam ACE located.

      Really does the job for this event AND it is located about as close to the eye
      as you can get on the Island. 😀

  35. It looks like they locked down the web cam in the best position to be secure during
    the storm. Not such a great view, but understandable.

        1. I’ll have to tune in to the ham bands when I get home to see if there are any reports coming in.

          1. I’d say, so far, so good. Latest report from the reporting station (don’t know which part of the island that is) is Wind EAST at 38 mph. No gust data given. It is ramping up only oh so slowly.

            Eye of Gonzalo “appears” still to be heading directly at the Island or “perhaps” a tad West
            of the Island.

            Island would be best served IF it actually tracked East of the Island, but that doesn’t look
            like what is happening.

  37. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured this image of Hurricane Gonzalo as it churns toward Bermuda. The latest from the National Hurricane Center indicates maximum sustained winds are 125 mph – a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected for today, but Gonzalo will still be a dangerous major hurricane when the eye moves near or over Bermuda this evening. Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at http://www.hurricanes.gov

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10636946_10152496584076716_2939744242336084800_o.jpg

  38. That water is really starting to rise. I gotta chuckle though, that tug boat on the calm side is barely moving. 🙂

  40. high tide is 5PM local time which is a little more than 1/2 hour away.
    SO, I would say that they escaped a really bad storm surge OR look to anyway.

    2. On the PC theres just a brief ad but then it should start right away. If you’re mobile and not on wireless it might not be available, not sure

      1. Keep the descriptions coming OS !

        I’ll be radar watching, since I cant get the webcam shot either. 🙂

  47. Well, since October 2012 …..

    A good part of coastal NJ has had to have its infrastructure rebuilt, Cabo St. Lucas is probably in rebuild mode and Bermuda is unfortunately next.

  48. Winds must be sustained at 50 mph+ now. Really howling. Gusts to over 60 for sure.
    perhaps now approaching hurricane force in gusts.

  51. Latest from Bermuda as of 3:55PM local time

    Latest Conditions
    At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
    Recorded at 3:55 pm
    Rain
    Temp.: 26°C/78°F
    Humidity: 86%
    Wind: E 33G43 KT
    or 38, G50 mph

    Note this is the Airport which is in St. Georges, “about” 15-20 miles farther NE from the webcam location as the crow (or sea gull) flies.

  52. Eye looks like it will cross right over based on radar. I went to laptop and still can’t open cam, oh well.

    1. Hadi, I don’t get that. Perhaps I have it because I have had the connection
      ALL afternoon. Maybe they are not letting any more connections in??????
      I NEVER turned OFF my connections. I have left it running and kept checking
      in periodically.

      1. It probably has something to do with the number of users on their site at any given time. It took a while but I’m back in.

    1. I was just going to say that I opened up another window and placed
      the link in my browser and got in.

    1. Remember, that water is NOT the open ocean. It is great Sound, on which Hamilton is located on the Northern extreme of Great Sound. Thsi Royal Naval Dockyard is on the Southern or SW end of Great Sound. Waves are NOT
      coming from open ocean, but rather from across part of the Sound.

      1. Of course IF the camera were turned in the opposite direction,
        we would get a look at the ocean. 😀

    1. Honestly,

      That looks like a photo shop job to me.
      Look how calm that water is.

      Just doesn’t look right to me.

      TK, your thoughts???

      1. Now that I look at it again…I think you’re right. Jim Cantore retweeted. Though there was a supercell in the area…

  56. Observations
    Friday, October 17, 2014
    Observations are in local time and taken at least once an hour, or upon the start and end of specified events such as showers and thunderstorms.

    Time Sky / Weather Wind Speed/Gusts Temp. R.H. Pressure
    knots (mph) °C (°F) % mb / “Hg
    15:55 Overcast Rain E 33/43 (38/50) 26(78) 86 1000 / 29.52
    15:28 Overcast Rain E 34/45 (39/52) 26(78) 86 1000 / 29.54
    14:55 Overcast Rain E 32/42 (37/48) 26(78) 86 1002 / 29.60
    13:55 Overcast Rain E 29/0 (33/0) 26(78) 86 1005 / 29.67
    13:41 Overcast Rain E 27/0 (31/0) 26(79) 83 1005 / 29.68
    12:55 Overcast Showers ESE 26/0 (30/0) 26(79) 83 1007 / 29.73
    11:55 Overcast Showers ESE 25/0 (29/0) 26(79) 85 1008 / 29.78
    10:55 Overcast ESE 23/0 (26/0) 26(79) 83 1009 / 29.80
    09:55 Overcast ESE 21/0 (24/0) 26(79) 87 1009 / 29.81
    08:55 Overcast ESE 20/0 (23/0) 26(78) 87 1009 / 29.81
    07:55 Overcast ESE 21/0 (24/0) 26(78) 87 1009 / 29.80
    06:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 20/0 (23/0) 26(78) 87 1009 / 29.80
    05:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 18/0 (21/0) 25(77) 89 1009 / 29.81
    04:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 19/0 (22/0) 25(78) 82 1010 / 29.82
    03:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 17/0 (20/0) 25(77) 84 1010 / 29.84
    02:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 19/0 (22/0) 25(77) 84 1012 / 29.87
    01:55 Mostly Cloudy Showers SE 18/0 (21/0) 25(77) 85 1012 / 29.89
    00:55 Overcast SE 15/0 (17/0) 25(77) 85 1013 / 29.92
    23:55 Overcast SE 16/0 (18/0) 26(78) 82 1014 / 29.95
    22:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 13/0 (15/0) 25(77) 90 1014 / 29.95
    22:44 Overcast SE 14/0 (16/0) 25(77) 85 1014 / 29.95
    22:27 Mostly Cloudy Showers SE 13/0 (15/0) 25(77) 85 1015 / 29.96
    21:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 14/0 (16/0) 25(77) 85 1015 / 29.97
    20:55 Mostly Cloudy SE 15/0 (17/0) 25(77) 87 1015 / 29.98
    Observations from our AWOS sites are available he

    1. Latest from the Airport at Bermuda:

      Current weather observation
      The report was made 05 minutes ago, at 19:58 UTC
      Wind 37 kt from the East with gusts up to 50 kt
      (42,6 mph with gusts to 57.5 mph)
      Temperature 24°C
      Humidity 100%
      Pressure
      Visibility 3.2 km
      Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft
      Overcast at a height of 2600 ft
      rain and mist

      1. I guess hurricanes are very warm storms ….

        24C = 76F and the humidity is 100%, which means the dewpoint is 76F.

  57. Unfortunately, high tide at St. George is at 4:40pm, so thats not working in their favor either.

    I’ve been trying to find a tidal guage, with the plots on them to show current tidal surge, but no luck yet.

  63. BTW, the web cam has a FULL SCREEN option.

    On my 24 inch monitor it is truly AWESOME!!!!!

    Hold your mouse on the lower left of the image. There will be a few icons, the
    fullscreen is the last one on the right. 😀

  64. Eye Wall “about” 60 miles from Airport, 45 miles or so from Webcam.
    Still on direct path to Island.

  65. Latest Conditions
    At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
    Recorded at 5:05 pm
    Rain
    Temp.: 24°C/76°F
    Humidity: 97%
    Wind: E 39G55 KT
    or 45G63 mph

  66. Seen some of the webcam footage from Bermuda. Nasty weather, to say the least. Let’s hope they come through it as best they can. They are ready for these events, but damage will still occur.

    Hoping Hawaii fares well in their imminent storm. Big Island should just see some tropical storm conditions as Ana passes south of the chain.

    Closer to home. Nice day today, sun/clouds, breezy but mild for mid October.

    The cooling trend begins this weekend though Saturday will still be fairly mild, but with more clouds and a slight risk of showers. Sunday will be a brighter but cooler and gusty day.

    Fair/cool Monday. Stormy weather sets up Tuesday and lasts through Friday next week. Looking way out because sometimes we like to do this: storm departs Saturday with windy/cold weather setting in, and maybe some areas away from the South Coast see their first flakes in scattered showers Saturday night or Sunday (25th/26th). NOT unusual for late October.

    Just beyond that, warming trend again as we head back to the mild pattern.

    1. Thanks TK….looks like a decent weather for flag football, Pop Warner, and a trip to King Richard’s Faire. No rest for the weary on our weekends!

  67. Heading out.

    Latest Conditions
    At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
    Recorded at 5:55 pm
    Rain
    Temp.: 24°C/76°F
    Humidity: 97%
    Wind: E 39G58 KT
    or 45G67 mph
    Island Observations

  68. Moment of truth, if you will, in Bermuda.

    Last ob, was east wind at 76mph.

    Radar showing island in the eyewall.

  69. Ana’s latest recon data….

    989 mb, winds sampled at 70 to 80 kts.

    In response, I believe they have upgraded this system to hurricane status.

  71. Listening to the Hurricane Net on 14325 khz (you need a shortwave receiver with USB capabilities). A current report of the pressure on the island at 947 mb. That from a very weak Bermuda station reporting to the net.

  73. I was watching live but just the same picture ? Where can I view the entire island? The wind was loud as hell. I’m very interested in this right now .

  74. Eric on BZ said it could be worst Bermuda has ever seen. The photos of the island fitting in the eye were amazing

    1. Wankum said they will be getting like a one two punch. They just showed a dentist who splits his time between Boston and Bermuda live and holy crap it’s bad that wind, wow !!!!!

  75. Just to clarify some comments above. Bermuda has about 70,000 residents and about 30,000 households and 5,000 “other” structures. Most households do not have power. The peak gust was recorded at 144 mph not all that far from their airport. Might be the worst to ever hit Bermuda. can’t imagine the pictures we are all going to see.

  76. Just to get back to our own weather for a moment, Barry is already seeing similarities to October 1996 when the Regatta was cancelled for the first time in its history. Barry also says 70s will return the following week after our weeklong rainstorm. I remember 1996 very well, and I hope we don’t get the massive flooding that flooded out the MBTA Green Line in the Kenmore/Fenway area for days. IIRC it took nearly a year to get the underground signal system back in operation. Drivers had to rely on sight to avoid accidents with other trains and naturally speeds were greatly reduced in those tunnels.

    TK – Will mid-summer warmth and humidity return or will the next warm-up be just the typical Indian Summer type fall warmth?

    1. Well the Regatta is this weekend so no cancellation this time. 🙂

      There is certainly some chance for copious rainfall in some locations next week but it’s going to depend on the smaller details within a very broad set-up. So far I don’t see the tropical moisture feed into that thing to really drive loads and loads of rain in here. Coastal areas may see splash-over and flooding problems due to long fetch combined with astronomically higher tides around the New Moon.

      I agree with Barry about a warm-up not long after that wet spell ends, BUT it will be preceded by a cold shot that may contain Boston’s first snowflakes of the season (around October 26).

      It is in the October 28-31 period where the big warm-up would take place.

  77. ECMWF vs GFS

    The Euro has proven itself to be going well right now.
    GFS is doing OK, but it has trouble with timing after a few days (too fast), and then starts to lose things out around 240 hours when it just goes into what I think is probably too fast and short amplitude depiction.

    Working on a new blog. 🙂

  80. The 00z EURO projecting 988 mb for next week’s low.

    Interested to watch in future EURO runs if this projected pressure continues a downward trend, remains steady or is not as low.

    988 mb six days out is a rather strong projection for a low.

  81. Good morning!! Beautiful day!!
    Still a lot of green trees around here mixed with patchy leaf color, thinking there will be leaves going into November at this clip

    2. We’re a little ahead of schedule up this side of Boston, but there are always trees that hold on as long as they can, so I think up here we’ll have a mix of trees that are leafless with other that are still goldish/green with leaves mostly on.

      But the last of the leaves usually do come down during November anyway, either side of Boston, of course later to the south.

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