The Week Ahead

176 Comments

9:34PM

After an eventful week which included a fairly powerful wind/rain storm, we will see a mix of tranquil and volatile weather this coming week.

OVERVIEW…
The week will open with high pressure sinking to the south and a warm front approaching then passing, with a warming trend into Wednesday, then a cold front cooling things down toward the end of the week. A potent upper level system born of a Pacific tropical cyclone may bring some unsettled weather followed by a cold blast as Halloween leads into November.

DETAILS…
Monday will be a fair but breezy day as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and an extension of high pressure over the US Mid Atlantic moves into the Northeast with a westerly flow between them. Low pressure will then move northeastward through the Great Lakes Tuesday and into eastern Canada Wednesday. Its warm front will pass by early Tuesday introducing warmer air to the region. Its cold front will swing in from the west by Wednesday but will have limited moisture to work with, so it will bring only a risk of passing showers and that day will also be quite mild. Some cooler air will work in during Thursday as weak high pressure follows a secondary front into the region. Meanwhile, the low pressure area that was once a tropical cyclone (Ana) in the Pacific Ocean will enter western Canada then cross the country during the middle of the week. This system has a long history, having been born on October 13 nearly 1000 miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. It made a close pass to the islands but not a direct hit on October 18 and 19 as a hurricane, and since has curved to the north and northeast and lost its tropical characteristics. It is still a pretty potent storm system, however, and in transitioned state will have an impact on the weather here in New England when it finally completes its journey here late Friday into Saturday. As it does so it will be tapping some cold air that has leaked into Canada from Siberia. The result will be clouds moving in during the day Friday, leading to a Halloween Night that may turn wet and eventually white in some areas if the cold air works in quickly enough. This will need to be watched as it does carry potential for putting down some of the first accumulating snow of the season. By Saturday, the small but energetic system will be exiting to the east but will still have enough influence on the weather to bring the threat of rain/snow showers, along with colder air and windy conditions. The expansion of this low as it intensifies to the east up against high pressure trying to build in from the west on Sunday will allow windy and cold weather to continue. Of course, any forecast more than a few days out is going to carry some uncertainty, so please check back for updates on the late week situation.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting around 25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning, partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s to around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly morning-midday. Low 51. High 70.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of rain possibly turning to mix/snow especially inland at night. Low 41. High 54.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy and windy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 46.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 32. High 45.

176 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  5. Thanks tk. I sure hope it stays dry for Halloween Friday night. It’s a big night in our house and I have a ton off people coming over. My son has created a haunted house outside as he has been working on it since like September. He was all excited last night when the seven day showed Friday to be dry?

  7. hopefully its just some rain showers, no snow in october please , but i do not like the pattern that is forming a bunch of lake and mountain track storm systems.

  8. Good morning!! What a beautiful Monday especially after a Patriots win, it appears that the overall pattern is still relatively a mild one overall, after just a few cooler days to begin nov, it wants to return to milder temps, keep it going 🙂

    1. Average high nov 1st 60 degrees average low 39 degrees, Nov 30th average high 48 degrees, average low 28 degrees, and then it’s December 🙂

  10. Thanks Tk.

    Interesting: As it does so it will be tapping some cold air that has leaked into Canada from Siberia.

    😀

    1. I found that to be particularly interesting too. Looks like Siberia is loading up and hopefully we get more “leakage” as we get into the winter months

            1. Interesting, thanks OS. I forgot about wundermaps. Just took a peek and it has some very cold air with this system. Also drops some significant early season snow into the mountains of northern NE with a bulls-eye of >12” in Maine

              1. I cancelled my Euro subscription.
                It was a deal with my wife so we could add STARZ to our cable.
                (yes, so she could watch Outlander, which I also enjoyed)

    1. NWS take:

      THIS COMING WEEKEND…
      ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW PRES LIKELY TO THE N…THE SFC REFLECTION A LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND…MAY TRANSFER IT/S ENERGY TO A
      DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRES. IN ANY CASE…ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL LIFT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
      SHOWERS…AMONGST COOLER AND BLUSTER CONDITIONS. IN FACT…H85 TEMPS COULD AVERAGE -5C BY PEAK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR NOW…WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LIFT AND ACTUAL SFC-MID LVL OUTCOMES.

  14. Thanks for the link AceMaster for the EURO showing an inch or two for my area.
    I don’t that and am thinking first flakes of the season for the interior of SNE. When we have had these briefs cool downs they have come on the weekends just like in the winter of 2011-12. Hopefully this winter will not be a repeat of that.

  15. General question. When one says a potential weather event in terms of time is “way out there” or “a ways away” or “too far out,” what is the criteria for that? Is it 5 days, 7 days, 10 days? When does “too far out” become a more manageable forecast?

    1. Who the bleep knows? I guess it depends on the forecaster, the model and the confidence said forecaster has in that model. Personally, I think that anything beyond 5 days is WAY OUT THERE! 😆

      1. I’d agree that 5 days is generally the period of time where a forecast comes more into focus. With that said, and what i am getting at is, a couple days ago, this potential system was too far out to predict. We sit here on monday and lo and behold, halloween is in 5 days. Are we are more certain about the system today than we were say Friday or Sat?

    2. Interesting question …..

      I think sometimes it could be even 2 days out …. for example, in a tropical system, when track really clarifies close to landfall … or even a winter storm, when a better idea of track and intensity have huge implications for rain/snow lines, cutoff of heavy precip vs no precip, etc.

      1. Very true. When small details will have major impacts on the outcome this can be a short period of time.

  16. I always felt 5 or more days out is way out there. When here a Potential storm in that time range I take it with a grain of salt since the majority of time it does not pan out. There are exceptions to that one being Sandy and the other the Blizzard of 2013.

    1. The super storm of 1993 was predicted WELL IN ADVANCE as well with
      uncanny accuracy for so far out. And that was MORE than 20 years ago.

      So it all depends on the pattern, how stable it is or how evolving it is.

      It looks pretty volatile for this weekend, but the trends favor a cutoff
      low in Northern NE, with nothing but Rain/Snow showers for us.

      We shall see. Every now and then, this type of set up brings a surprise or 2, BUT I wouldn’t exactly count on it. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z runs show.

  17. Old Salty I remember that Super Storm of 93 quite well. A former forecaster here in CT Geoff Fox was saying early that week the big khauna is coming Saturday and did it.
    This is one of the 16 storms that is being voted on Wxedge.com on as the most memorable storm to affect CT.
    Will be down to 8 after next Wednesday.

    1. That was a nice storm to be sure. In my area, it turned to SLEET with VICIOUS Thunder and Lightning near the end. It may have rained at Logan, but not in JP, where it ended as sleet and then snizzled out. About 15 inches at my house.

    1. This low PRECEEDS the plunge of Arctic air, so it really depends upon how it develops and where to introduce the cold air into the system.

  19. I was 9 when the Super Storm hit and I remember the snow came up close to my knee caps. Quite a storm with now just snow but severe weather including tornadoes in parts of Florida.

  21. Im just really hoping it does not rain Friday night. It did last year and wrecked it for the kids.My neighborhood is the town favorite, many kids.

  25. I’m starting to get that feeling. The one of watching model runs and getting excited for upcoming storms 🙂

  26. Really curious how the euro treats this situation and how accurate it is in the end. Will really be telling how it might perform this winter

      1. There were so many times last winter, especially toward the end, i wanted to give the euro a big punch in the nose for getting our hopes up. I have an idea, lets show a 2ft+ snowstorm for days on end, then all of a sudden show nothing! HA! Go back too skool euro

  28. Whatever happens, rain or snow or nothing, it WILL be very cold this weekend for this time of year. Will put an end to the growing season almost everywhere in NE, and the northeast for that matter

      1. Yea you’ll def need the heat this weekend, at least in the mornings. No kidding around winter cold. Everything is short lived in the fall around here, cold and warmth. It’s a see-saw transition season.

        1. Definitely a warm up next week, even if short lived. 😀
          But a certain shot of cold for a couple of days first.

          Will it rain, snow or both? Got me.

          We shall see.

          Remains of ANA just off shore of BC this morning.

  30. Charlie, not sure where you get your average temps, but in Providence (closest wunderground site to you), the average high for Nov. 1st is 53 and average low is 36. Nov. 30th averages, 43 high and 28 low. The weather channel site is always way wrong

    2. I’m not sure this situation would apply. To me, its not pattern driven. This would be a highly unusual situation in that the system causing all of this is the remnants of a tropical system that originated off the south american coast in the pacific, hit hawaii, then came all the way back toward canada and the NW US. Without it, yes it would still be a chilly weekend, but snow or any precip for that matter wouldn’t be in the discussion. What this does tell us is there is plenty of cold air in siberia to draw from and that could be a big positive if u want snow this winter.

          1. True, but 3rd time could be a charm?

            I can’t find reliable El Nino Data.

            Found one site that gave a 37% chance of normal SST temerpatures, 32% chance of above normal and 31% chance of below normal. or something like that. I can’t find it again.

      1. Really close. There “could’ be a surprise here as ALL 3 models
        are beginning to ZERO in on a solution. IF we were to get
        “enough” wrap around moisture into the COLDER airmass, it
        could even SNOW at the coast. I KNOW there are many big
        IFs in play, but that is what we do. 😀

  34. From Eric Fisher via Twitter:

    Not liking the setup for this coming weekend. It’s still *early*…but snow is definitely in the cards and potential is there to accumulate.

      1. I guess he’s looking at what we’re looking at.

        Great minds think alike. 😆 😆 😆

        Thanks for those posts Ace. Appreciated.

    2. JR said Worcester Hills. Was Eric sort of specific – I hope – or just saying accumulation – that’ll toss everyone into a tizzy

      1. Someone asked him, for the mountains right? Then he said, everywhere. No more specifics other than that.

  35. Vicki,

    I don’t know. NOTHING is set in stone yet. NOTHING.

    HOWEVER, the set up is getting more and more interesting
    and I believe that is his concern. (OR really bad IF one does not like SNOW)

    It depends on the exact set up, how much cold air gets in here and HOW MUCH
    WRAP Around moisture is available. IF and I say again IF everything lines up just right we “could” have accumulating SNOW ALL across the area, including the coast.

    NOT saying that will happen, just something to really watch at this point.

  36. WOW! Euro is REALLY interesting. By Saturday afternoon (21Z), temperatures Dropping across the area. low 40s from 128 area Eastward with 32-39 across the rest of the state with precipitation falling.

      1. The scary part is that 4-5 days out, ALL 3 biggie models are
        collapsing to pretty much the same solution, if not exact, very very similar. When that happens….well need I say more. 😀

  37. The big news is how we could be 70 tommorrow and close to 80 degrees Wednesday, will worry about the rain/snow sat and then it looks like around 60 again, I believe it’s a hiccup, accumulation? Not here in Bristol cty grounds to warm 🙂

      1. I remember that so well. I was doing then what we’re doing now.
        Didn’t surprise me one bit that it happened. Was not surprised
        by the snow depth either. It was pretty obvious it was going to happen. 😀 😀 😀

  38. This should be more of a bad thing for snow lovers than a good thing.

    I can hear the snow lovers now, whining because there is no snow in December and January.

    1. Don’t agree. It may be snowless come December and January, but not
      because of What happens Saturday. And yes we’ll whine regardless. 😀

  40. Busy at school, but reading bits and pieces …..

    Are rain chances increasing Friday evening ?

    That would be less than desirable for trick or treating for the kids.

    Actually, I’d take snow falling over rain. The snow just would bounce off you, but the rain really gets you cold.

  41. 986 low pressure is a good size storm. Will see what happens as this looks to be the first of hopefully many watchers for wintry precipitation in next few months.

  42. Tom,

    Euro is RAIN free until wee hours of Saturday. So you “may” be good.

    Same if not later with GFS.

    This looks more like a Saturday/Saturday night event. We shall see.

    1. Thanks OS, like that timing very much.

      A few 3 musketeer bars (that’s what I sneak from my kids candy when they aren’t looking 🙂 ) and some early season snow, if it happens, Saturday, sounds like a plan !!

  43. Tell me its going to be very cold and windy Sunday behind the system.

    I know Brady can play in those conditions, how about Mr. Manning ??

    Gee, I wonder if he’s going to whine about our scoreboard operator too ??????

  46. You know, this thing “could” easily Escape OTS South and East of us and do all
    of it’s thing on the FISHES. 😆

    1. I thought on TV, if I heard correctly, the fans booed him during his celebration. I agree with the fans on their response.

      I think I also heard many fans cheering his injury and that I didnt care for that.

      Just my take. 🙂

    2. I’m surprised this stuff doesn’t happen more often. That kind of move should not cause a normal person to tear their ACL. This is further proof these guys are too big and too fast and on some sort of steroids or HGH. Also, there’s these kinds of celebrations all the time. I cringe every time 2 guys jump in the air and bump hips.

      1. Agree with you both, however, to celebrate a sack when your
        team is DOWN by that much that LATE in the game is
        LUNACY!@()#(*!()@*#()*!()@#*(!*)@#()*!()@#*(!@

        In this case he deserved it and IF I were the coach, GM or OWNER
        I’d RELEASE this turd NOW!

        1. This is the 2nd time this exact thing has happened this year. I dont know what the score was, but I believe it was a Detroit Lions player who celebrated after sacking Aaron Rodgers of the GB Packers.

  49. OS. Just saw your post to me above. I had an Uncharacteristically lousy day and you just made it right. THANK YOU.

  51. I think the wet weather will hold off until after early to mid evening festivities on Friday, as will the rapidly dropping temps. That is good news if it holds.

    Don’t get too excited about accumulating snow unless you are in the mountains of far western and northern New England for this one. We’re going to be in the middle, or “under the bridge” of an energy transfer. Rain or rain showers to start, cold enough for mix/snow showers Saturday but the real “action” will be offshore with a new low. The model depictions of lows tucked into the northern Middle Atlantic are highly unlikely solutions. And even if a low did form there, it would likely swing east then north so rapidly that there would be no time for meaningful precipitation to coincide with the coldest air. I think by Sunday it’s all evolved far too east to impact this area with snow but certainly close enough to drag down some significantly cold air on a northwest wind. Big warm-up by next Tuesday (Election Day). Medium/longer range signals are WARMER than normal. These short sharp colder shots mixed in with overall mild pattern may be the first hint of the Winter pattern. MAY be. It’s still too early to get anywhere near a final call on the coming Winter.

    And the fact that Siberia is tapped a couple times in October doesn’t mean a thing for the Winter.

    2. Not the fact that its been tapped but the fact theres so much cold available to be tapped has to mean something

      2. Of course it means something, but it may mean a very cold winter for eastern Europe. There is a whole lot of northern hemisphere. Cold air in Siberia is yearly, the degree of which varies, as does the snowcover. Regardless of the amount of snow/cold there, you still need a pattern to deliver the cold into eastern Canada and the northeastern US. Even with big Siberian snows, you are not guaranteed such a pattern. Odds just favor it a little more for at least part of the Winter if it exists.

  52. The snow talk is kind of crazy . As I said earlier I doubt very much it happens here . You’ll be lucky too see a lost flake or two. Low is 36 for Friday that’s not that cold in my view.

    2. Lower 40s would be cold enough at the surface to allow snowflakes to reach it. The cold air will be above us.

  53. The October 2011 snow event occured on a Saturday/Saturday night as well.

    Early November snows follow the same results as October snows: BELOW NORMAL SNOW FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. Late November snows near or just after Thanksgiving more likely to produce above normal snows later on.

    1. Right,.I’d forgotten that. We had a warmup right after that also. I have to stop thinking it would be fun to have snow this weekend except my common sense side says October snow isn’t going to always rule out winter snow…..there are exceptions to every rule.

  54. Thanks TK for your thoughts above regarding the weekend storm. I am probably in the minority here, but I hope your forecast verifies as I don’t want to see any accumulating snow for now (a few flurries/snow showers are ok of course) until early December.

    I am still waiting to see some accumulating April snow though…it’s been awhile. 😉

  55. Halloween storm temps were 40-45 day and 30-36 night. I know the likelihood of a repeat is slim but it is fun to track

    And it made me sad to see arods comments when I went back to that blog. Arod. You out there ?????

    1. Are you referring to the WBZ blog, Vicki? I can’t remember the last time I even looked at that place…no real good memories there AFAIC. Is arod posting over there?

  56. 3 Year anniversary of that October Noreaster this Wednesday. A Year later Super Storm Sandy on the same date October 29th.

    1. I’d also forgotten they were same day. I knew close as we didn’t have Halloween power for first and only last minute for second. Thanks JJ

  57. Before anyone draws comparisons to the upcoming chilly potential unsettled event and the October 29 snowstorm… Completely different set-up.

    That was a southern stream system riding into fairly deep cold for so early in the season.

    This would be a hybrid northern stream system born of a former tropical cyclone during a cold air advection period.

    They are so far apart from each other.

  60. One of those nights struggling to sleep …..

    1am, its 67F in Buffalo, NY.

    Tomorrow might be interesting.

    1. Took me a bit to figure out What Charlie was saying, then I realized that
      Washington was playing Dallas and assumed Washington won.

      Nice Hadi.

  63. I was just going to mention that the 0Z euro is calling for a few inches of snow
    even in Boston!!!

    CMC has backed off and has gone the TK described route.

    BTW, TK, you said EXACTLY what I thought you would say. Precisely, exactly!!
    Actually I was thinking along those lines yesterday when I posted that
    this “could” be a mostly OTS type event.

    GFS is backing off as well.

    Now it is the EURO that is the OUTLIER as mocked by Coastal above.

    Is it back to doing what it did to us last year?

    Time will tell.

    We shall see what subsequent model runs reveal. 😀

      1. From Eric Fisher last night:

        Development
        I have high confidence that a coastal storm will develop Saturday into Sunday. We’re looking at a potent short-wave which may phase up with some southern stream energy and meet along the coast. At the moment, I think models are under-doing the strength of this future coastal low, and probably sending it a little too far east. Considering the impressive height anomalies involved, vigorous mid-level energy, and WAY above average sea surface temperatures off our Atlantic coast…I think it would be hard for a strong storm *not* to form. So we’ll have that on our hands, the question is how close?

  64. The 0z Euro shows a general 8-10″ of snow for most of eastern/northeastern MA from this potential storm. Much higher totals up in Maine.

    Just a hunch, but I think many of us will see accumulating snow this weekend. Not sure it will be as much as the Euro shows, but something accumulating.

  65. 4 and 5 days out from any potential event … we don’t have enough information to nail this down right now. Not even close.

    I just put in a forecast update only, with a discussion to come later today with a second update.

    Good day all! My access will be limited but I’ll try to check in when I can until mid afternoon when I should be here more often.

  66. What is most likely to happen ….

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAQQjBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shane-holden.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F01%2Fdalton-snow-1-20-2009-2.jpg&ei=joBPVIKAC6LasASxhoB4&bvm=bv.77880786,d.cWc&psig=AFQjCNH9FCubzdVUqnpLQCYh56oBMcPoxA&ust=1414582790432538

    What, I think, a few people think or want to happen …

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kimmirutweather.com%2F&ei=UIBPVIfmKpTdsATrwYLoAQ&usg=AFQjCNEEBxNs5jgCAh6ZXGMYOXE37bETkQ&bvm=bv.77880786,d.cWc

        1. Oh, OK.

          Probably somewhere in between. 😀

          Seriously, I really haven’t a clue and IF this is any
          indication, it’s going to be a rough Winter. Earlier
          the 3 biggies were consistent and in agreement, now
          they’re off to Never Never Land. 😆 👿 😈

  68. Someone posted above about the Euro snowfall.

    IF the totals from the Wunder Map are for the 3 hour increments, which I believe they are, then the immediate Boston area is scheduled to receive 7-11 inches according
    to the 0Z Euro Run.

    Now, I don’t pretend to know HOW this model takes into account the warmth
    of the ground as the snow falls. How much accumulation (IF it were to happen in the 1st place) would be lost to cooling the ground before accumulation could even begin.
    Is this the expected accumulation “Assuming” the ground were cold OR does it the
    ground temperature into account?

    Does anyone know?

    1. Just a guess here, but i highly doubt ground temp is used in the model runs. 2M above ground temps yes, but not ground or top soil temps.

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