Chill Slowly

123 Comments

7:33AM

Not a blast, but a slow easing into the coldest air of the season so far, which you still must wait until later Tuesday to see arrive. Still not a whole lot of change to the forecasts previously posted. Here though I can offer you a little more detail regarding the coming weekend. First, we get rid of the small rain to snow event, which as of the time of this writing, is basically over everywhere except rain drops and a few snow flakes on Cape Cod. Where snow did accumulate, we saw generally a coating to an inch or so, mainly on unpaved surfaces. That will melt today as the sun returns and the ground is still relatively warm. The day will turn mostly sunny as dry air moves in and the developing storm moves away. It will be chilly, but not too cold, though the breeze that develops will give the air a nip. Look for a cold night tonight under a clear sky and active breeze. The weekend will be a bit of a split, with lots of sunshine Saturday as high pressure dominates, though still breezy as there is a squeeze between high pressure centered to the southwest and low pressure more intense but far away to the northeast, and then expect a period of cloudiness and perhaps an isolated snow shower as warmer air moves in aloft. The cloudiness may actually decrease a little bit later in the day. Things are still looking the same for the first half of next week, unsettled Monday as low pressure rides up the East Coast but bringing mild enough air for a mainly rain event (still watching for some mix inland), then the coldest air of the season so far by later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, into Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clearing by late morning then mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s inland, lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated light snow showers through early afternoon. Partly sunny later afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some mix possible well inland. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Sun/clouds. Snow shower late? Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

123 thoughts on “Chill Slowly”

  3. Thanks TK !

    A bit of snow on the car top and the top blades of grass at our house, but then I drove 1/4 mile inland and there’s a thick dusting of snow, the tall pine trees look pretty, etc.

  4. that sun came up and has been melting everything off the trees. about a quarter of an inch at most (coating)
    sunday night-monday night looks mainly rain turning to a mix before ending.

  5. Thanks TK, good forecast on your part, as usual! A very light coating of snow on the grass here in Plymouth, NH. Hoping we might get some accumulating snow up here from the bigger storm in a few days.

  6. Thank TK. Great forecast on your part.

    Also I appreciate the comments made by Wx Watcher and Scott on the previous blog. No need to rub anything in. I think people should learn that on the blog. OS does a great job and I like to think I contribute so need to call anyone out. We budted on the high side this time but oh well.

  7. This is the start of the 14th cold season for me living in Marshfield and I think this is the first time I’ve seen 2 measureable snowfalls prior to November 15th, so I am wildly impressed !!

    I’d like to offer a thought and its one that I’ve got to do better as well (and its just an opinion, it might be wrong !!)

    I think it is prudent to start injecting a bit of climatology into one’s expectations.

    This can be during seasonal transitions, as well as within seasons.

    For instance, climatology says that over a 100+ years in Boston and surrounding areas, it doesn’t snow much in Boston or surrounding areas. So, I think that has to be given a small weight into one’s thinking when pondering what might happen with a system.

    For instance, in season …. when a model is showing 2.7 QPF and a snow ratio of 15 to 1, which would spit out ….. oh ….. 40.5 inches of snow …. a quick look at climo data would show that it rarely actually snows 40.5 inches in a storm, even in New England. More common are 25-30 inches in a biggie and thus, taming in that projection might be wise.

    Again, this applies to me, I do it everytime. Its just a thought for discussion, not any criticism. Certainly, I’m not out to criticize, I’ve got an accuracy rating of 19.72%. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Of course you are correct Tom.
      I am prone to “wishcasting” from time to time.

      I think TK does a great job of reminding us about climatology.

      Even with that, I did say 1-3 inches, which turned out to be a “wishful” high amount, but in the grand scheme of things, it sort of worked out inland at least.
      Around my area, NOT EVEN CLOSE. 😆 😆 😆

      1. Near the coast, it just took way too long to changeover.
        It didn’t help that it got so damn WARM yesterday. I should
        have known there was a BUST coming when it warmed to over 50 in places. Also, the intensity needed to change it over really was never there, save for a burst or 2 here and there.

      2. Your a snow lover os that’s fine, it’s a weather blog, keep up posting the models, I don’t care if your prediction is snow bias, it’s all good 🙂

        1. Admitted snow lover. No denying that. Been that way since I was 6 years old. 😀

          I just have to get better at NOT wishcasting, that is all.

          I know better, but it sneaks in now and then.

          I actually gave a bit of an analysis to Ace in the blog yesterday that indicated an inch or 2 at best if one looked at it realistically.

          1. Here is what I said:

            Loads of factors:

            Warm ground (although will be cooling off over night)
            Warm boundary layer that has to be cooled off
            What is the intensity of precip?
            What is the ratio?
            What is the total qpf and how much of it as snow?

            Most models prog total qpf to be .25 to max of .5 or thereabouts.

            SREF says ration is 5:1

            So given that, even without losing any to rain or cooling the surface that
            would be only and inch or 2.

            2. That is why I am confused. I thought your prediction was accurate. We had a spread of 0-3 with most somewhere around the middle.

        2. I see Old Salty’s comments as snow bias but his analysis as an honest read of the maps, etc. It is a VERY important distinction.

  8. Tk you nailed it, a coating on grassy surfaces, everything’s beginning to dry out and today’s the last day of fertilizations 🙂 36.7 degrees good day

  9. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    MT @bhobservatory: EARLY MORNING #SNOW REACHES 3.5″ AT SUMMIT OF BLUE HILL IN MILTON, MA. THIS EQUALS 1997 RECORD FOR THIS DATE (ALSO 3.5″)

    WOW!!! Talk about elevation playing a role. Blue Hill, a mere 8 miles from my house had 3.5 inches. At my house barely more than a trace. perhaps .000000001 inch. 😆

    1. Same here os, lol I didn’t measure as there wasn’t enough, we had a coating on shady grassy surfaces, patchy coating around here 🙂

    3. I had 2″ and 3 miles down the street toward Worcester proper, barely a coating. Maybe 300′ lower in elevation.

  12. Hello,

    I’ve been following this blog for about 3 years now and I am fascinated by the discussion and information available on it. I am a high school environmental science teacher and I often refer to the blog with my students especially when there is potential for a storm to impact the area. I use it to inform the students and teach about weather in general. I also live on the upper cape and feel that that cape cod is underrepresented on the blog and would like to contribute especially when it comes to the weather down here as we have a microclimate going on that may be different from even nearby southeastern ma due to the influence of the ocean especially when it comes to winter precipitation events. How do i go about getting on here to contribute? I tried last winter but my comments were not posted. Thank you, TK and everyone else who contributes to the discussions on here!

  14. I would say i had more than a coating on my front lawn and car top. I can confidently say i had a solid inch, even in the grass. Started snowing all snow here at 12:30am. Most forecasts verified nicely.

      1. I don’t know much about him. I can only say I like his
        presentations. Not sure about his accuracy. He seems
        to be on target for Monday. We shall see.

        1. I do like his presentations. There was one storm in particular last year, it might have been one of the many late season historic blockbusters the EURO was trying to create out of thin air 4-5 days out, and he was so sure it would happen.

          1. To be certain, that Euro was going Bonkers last year and we don’t know if the problems with that model have been addressed or not?????

            1. As far as I know, they don’t do any tweaking between upgrades. TK may be able to provide some imput on that but I haven’t found anything that says otherwise. I will assume the EURO will have the same “amplification” issues

    1. Can’t rule out 50 especially southwest of Boston where it may clear nicely for part of the afternoon.

  17. Many were touting sustained cold but we don’t get that when the trough is where it is. You need more of a block with a decent trough or a PV in eastern Canada.

  18. BTW, for the life of me I can’t understand WHY someone somewhere hasn’t taken and posted a photo of Big Blue covered in Snow. It would be spectacular photo.

    WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY?

  21. I have always thought Bernie Rayno is terrific. His presentations are excellent. He was very accurate last winter as I followed him storm after storm. He missed 1 or 2 but most mets miss a storm or two. He doesn’t present an agenda nor is he full of hype. He does like winter weather but so do most mets so that can’t be a negative on him.

    2. Why didn’t you show the frame previous to this??

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

      hmmm 288 hours divided by 24 hours in a day yeilds 12 Days.

      Are you serious. A feature depicted 12 days out!)@(#*(!*@(#*!()@*#(!@
      😆

      I know you posted for s**ts and Giggles. 😀 😀

      2M temperature

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111412/gfs_T2m_us_40.png

      simulated radar

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111412/gfs_ir_us_40.png

      Let’s see what subsequent runs bring and IF other models come on board.

    3. That’s 957 Millibars. HOLY CRAP BATMAN, that sucker would be a MONSTER!! I mean MONSTER. Can we say BOMB this year?

      I know it is not a VALID comparison, BUT let’s do it anyway.
      957MB would equate to a mid level Category 3 Hurricane! See below:

      HURRICANE PRESSURES
      These are the pressure ranges in millibars typically associated with hurricanes:
      Cat 1 980-993
      Cat 2 965-979
      Cat 3 945-964
      Cat 4 920-944
      Cat 5 <920

      1. I knew you’d have fun with it OS. That would be absolutely unreal if it actually happened. 30mb drop in 12 hours depicted by the GFS! Just a fantasy though.

        1. Oh I did and thanks. That is so far out, imagine if
          it happened and the track was just a bit more off shore??

          Serious crap around here. Heavy snow inland, with heavy rain transitioning to heavy snow at the coast.

          Would be fun. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. 😀

  23. I know its far out and the weekend of the 22nd and probably change but look at the set up. storm tracks over the cape but with an area of high pressure to the north. with 850 temps below freezing north and west of boston. would be a decent storm if this turns out to be correct. Maybe mother nature is waiting for me to rake up the leaves and then will start to snow 😀
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111412/ecmwf_T850_neus_9.png

    2. Oh I am sure it will be a cold rain since the 22nd is the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade. We’ve lucked out the last few years so I know we are due.

    2. Either one. Luck will be so far behind he will end the game with comparable numbers to brady due to points in garbage time

  26. The threat in the 22nd + or – a day event will probably fail before it ever materializes.

    We are going to see a larger-scale warm-side event sometime the week of Thanksgiving when we pump up a ridge just off the East Coast and dig a trough into the central US.

    2. Everyone wants low energy costs and jobs but then don’t want the infrastructure to make it happen. It’s like those people with those electric cars who plug them into outlets that generate electricity from coal burning plants. As long as they don’t “see it in their backyard” they are content.

  28. I’d lean more toward the ECMWF versus the GFS. The 12z GFS is very likely too progressive and chaotic. I’d ignore that run and be very cautious of the model for now. I’d love to compare the parallel GFS to the ECMWF the next several days to see how they both handle the pattern heading into Thanksgiving week.

    How I can see the general pattern heading into that week is like this… and this is not an official forecast but just some idea on how it may play out:

    See above forecast for thoughts through the middle of next week which at this point remain the same.

    Late next week: Dry and chilly 21 Friday through 23 Sunday but the brunt of the cold will have already come through before that and it will be easing.

    Thanksgiving week: First half of week in the 24 Monday through 26 Wednesday time frame we’ll get a high offshore and a significant warm up, then a strong low moving through the Great Lakes and dragging a front east so that by the holiday we are dry and seasonable. The question will be the timing Monday-Wednesday. We could end up with 1 or 2 shots of wet weather in there (rain) then maybe a sharp front at the end. The transition to the dry/seasonable could be earlier (say Tuesday) or a little bit later (Wednesday). The wetter day(s) yet to be determined. Just watched for a period of volatility. I do not see any snowstorm threats in the next 14 days.

      1. It doesn’t mean it can’t snow. We may see a few areas of very light snow around Sunday morning. Some areas may start as snow early Monday or end as snow later Monday evening.

        I just don’t see a set-up for a widespread measurable snow event, that is, one more significant than this morning’s, for quite a while. Things can always change but I’m reasonably confident and have been for quite a while. The only surprise lately was the colder shift that I was not expecting during the middle of this month.

        1. You bet. Of course. Understood and that is how I understood.

          That being said, I Hope you are incorrect. 😀

    3. Thanks TK. When you say significant warm up, is that significant compared to the chilly temps we will have until then or significant as in statistically significant above normal for the time period?

        3. Good for putting up outside lights. Not so good for what used to be a porch I could always count on as a thanksgiving fridge. 🙁

    1. Hadi, you know the answer to that. Augusta is just a bit too close to the coast
      for comfort. I think you may be S**T out of luck, even up there.

      Let’s see what Mr. TK has to say. 😀

    2. They will end up involved in the warm-up that would come early in that week. Not sure how the week ends up yet.

  31. Ace’s Fantasy GFS storm has gone POOF on the 18Z Run, but we KNEW that would happen. 😆 😆

    Why bother running these things beyond 5 days, because they just run into la la land.

    1. The GFS lives in Fantasy Land right now.
      Accurate forecasts will not be accomplished using it as guidance. 😛

      1. Ace’s storm was on the Old GFS model run.
        Do your comments apply to the Parallel run as well?
        I presume so, but you did not clarify. Thanks

  33. To Narto:
    You have been approved!
    What probably happened last year was the message got lost in a mountain of spam that was pouring into the blog before an upgrade. My apologies for missing your initial attempt. Hope you enjoy the blog. 🙂

  39. Coldest night so far down to 29.6 degrees, expecting a low maybe 26-27 degrees, will see

    I’m going to do some final clean ups on Sunday, whatever leaves falls after tommorrow will have to be picked up in March.

    2. Wish I could do the same Charlie, but still have too many leaves left to fall!
      The colder weather will help in letting me put the garden beds to rest for winter. Today, there were still some flowers on a few plants, but I expect that too change in the next day or two!

  40. Quick question – I was doing yardwork the other day and got 4 ticks on me (despite wearing long jeans and a sweater). Will the cold weather starting tonight kill them? I’m now terrified about doing any further work outside!

    1. Not Sure. I think I read something about them being active all Winter.
      Perhaps someone else knows for sure. Found this:

      8. Ticks can be active even in the winter

      That’s right! Adult stage deer ticks become active every year after the first frost. They’re not killed by freezing temperatures, and while other ticks enter a feeding diapause as day-lengths get shorter, deer ticks will be active any winter day that the ground is not snow-covered or frozen. This surprises people, especially during a January thaw or early spring day. Remember this fact and hopefully you’ll never be caught off-guard.

      1. Wonderful… thanks, OS. My yard is infested with them. I even went out to rip out my tomato plants and came in with one on my sleeve 🙁 Not happy. They’re deer ticks, too – the little tiny black f&^E$. Grrrrrrr!!!!

        1. Wow. That is unnerving but so glad you brought it to our attention. I know there are safe products to use in yards. Do you have a good greenhouse type facility near you? I suspect you do but you can also call Russels in wayland. They have a lot of organic compounds. Good luck

  42. I asked the vet the same question about ticks. I didnt think i needed to apply frontline to my pup in the winter months but he said the same thing, some species become more active in winter

  44. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the “coldest high temperature” ever recorded for today?
    A. 33 degrees
    B. 30 degrees
    C. 38 degrees
    D. 28 degrees

    No cheating, but it occurred in 1933.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is coldest temperature day recorded on this date?

    A. 13 degrees
    B. 15 degrees
    C. 17 degrees
    D. 19 degrees

    Answers later today. This 2nd event also occurred in 1933 on the same date as the first question.

    1. Congratulations. You experienced a Great Lakes snow shower, in the final stage of dissipation. 😉

  48. I just posted a new blog (short update).

    Longshot, Vicki, and JimmyJames, I have already reposted the quizzes and your guesses there, so no need to do anything except head on over to the new post. 🙂

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