Weekend Update

186 Comments

8:34AM

The discussion is basically the same as the previous so will leave it that and only add that a very minor surprise this morning was a few stray snow showers surviving all the way from the Great Lakes to the southwestern suburbs of Boston – no accumulation, only a few flakes in the air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds and a very light snow shower southwest of Boston into mid morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 35-42, coldest in higher elevations inland. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32 by midnight, may rise slightly later. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds with a very slight chance of a few snow flakes morning, then partial sun by afternoon. Highs 43-50, mildest southwest of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some mix possible well inland. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Rain or snow shower late day? Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.
FRIDAY: Sun and high clouds. Low 25. High 40.

186 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. REPOST of AccuWeather quizzes by Longshot:

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the “coldest high temperature” ever recorded for today?
    A. 33 degrees
    B. 30 degrees
    C. 38 degrees
    D. 28 degrees

    No cheating, but it occurred in 1933.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is coldest temperature day recorded on this date?

    A. 13 degrees
    B. 15 degrees
    C. 17 degrees
    D. 19 degrees

    Answers later today. This 2nd event also occurred in 1933 on the same date as the first question.

    Answers given by Vicki: D & B
    Answers given by JimmyJames: D & A

  3. re: quix
    I haven’t a clue and If I answer I’d be influenced by answers already posted. 😀

    Made to 28 here this morning. Milder than I expected. 😀

  6. Good morning!! Nice morning, a little cold for my standards but o well. I asked the kids if they wanted to come out, 1st time this year nahhhh it’s to cold lol here we go

    I’m hoping in 3 months were talking about spring, I don’t like hearing about winter in Falltime. It’s Falltime!! A lot of Football watching today 🙂

    1. But you don’t mind hearing about Spring in Wintertime. That’s Wintertime! 😉 I’m going to dub you Double-Standard Charlie. 😉

      BTW I asked my kid if he wanted to go outside this morning and he said yes. We walked to the center of town and up a rocky hill called “Magazine Hill”. It was a nice morning to test out my new Winter jacket. Works perfectly. 🙂

      2. Winter starts in 2 weeks 🙂 you can always tell when it’s to cold outside bc my street isn’t full of kids playing anymore

    2. My older grandson is still wearing tee shirts and it took an act of congress to get him to put a light jacket on. He has been outside all morning. I don’t understand how your kids swim in ice water in the spring and won’t play out on lovely days such as this.

  7. I haven’t seen any snowfall numbers for Logan on the Contests page lately. I posted mine over there (46.8″) a few days ago. I would like to remind everyone who has not posted yet to do so tomorrow so Vicki can record them. Thank you. 🙂

    Also TK – I am looking forward to your Winter Outlook tomorrow as well! 😀

  8. To me the Mississppi State Alabama game is the big one this Saturday. If Alabama loses in all likelihood they will not be one of the four playoff teams.

    1. Yawn. 😀

      I saw on the TV news this morning workers shoveling out the seats at Notre Dame Stadium for the game vs. Northwestern later today. Other than a BC game, that one interests me much more. 🙂

  9. According to Dave Epstein temps should moderate during Thanksgiving week and the latest CPC outlook concurs. I now have a bad feeling that there will be lots of “wasted cold” and moderation will occur just prior to any systems approaching SNE this upcoming winter leading to mostly snow to rain/all rain events. The Monday event then the cold following thereafter being the perfect example.

        1. Depends on how warm it gets, but it probably won’t attain levels required to be “official” Indian Summer.

  10. Not totally sure but I believe Logan got down to 30F early this morning for the first frost/freeze of the season. The average for Logan is November 7th so it is a week late.

    1. I should have been more specific. I haven’t seen any more recent numbers other than mine although now Jimmy just posted his a short while ago. I know that TK is expected to post his tomorrow.

  12. 12Z GFSs both want to take Monday’s system WAY inside, so far it would preclude
    SNOW even up North. Bummer for Ski Industry. Hope not a sign for the Winter.
    I should pull back my big number, but I won’t.

    1. I am now feeling less comfortable about mine as well, but like you, I won’t change it. I will be happy if I can get within a few inches of my number.

      1. I’ll be happy to see average at this point. I was feeling bullish when I posted my HIGH number, probably influenced by
        Judah Cohen’s blog. Getting cold feet now.

        As I look ahead at the long range, I don’t like what I see.
        Could it change? Sure. Also, it’s still early, but often times
        November weather can be a predictor for the Winter.

        We shall see.

        1. Boston has only seen 90+ inches twice in its history going back to 1890-91.

          1993-94 = 96.3″
          1995-96 = 107.6″

          What were you thinking OS? lol. 😀 😀

  13. Im really surprised last night was Logan’s first time at 32 or below. Was 23 at my house this morning. Ski show is slow so far this morning but should pick up. Eric Fisher will be here tomorrow! I think Barry is here today

  14. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 1h1 hour ago Boston, MA
    #Boston went down to 30 degrees last night…coldest of the season and our first freeze. Low 20s in many suburbs! #brrr

  17. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/avn-animated.gif

    Look at the arctic air (the light blue) in eastern parts of Siberia.

    My opinion is not to get too discouraged about whats going to happen in winter, if it moderates to average or above normal temps around Thanksgiving and for a time after.

    Eventually, the big ridge currently nosing all the way into Alaska has to break down and when it does, the resulting implication for a good part of the US is for the jet stream to retreat back north and thus, moderation.

    Thereafter, give time for the atmosphere to reconfigure again, and while its milder here, more and more intense cold will be building at higher latitudes and I’m sure we’ll hear from that by mid or late December. Then, with a little luck with the jet stream properly configured, there’ll be a storm to provide the moisture.

      1. Thanks OS !

        I do feel fairly confident of episodes of cold and snow coming mid-late December through …….. I want to say March, but I fear into early April. 🙂 🙂 :(.

        No repeat of winter 2012 coming, much like we probably wont see a summer as bad as 2009 anytime soon either. Two extreme cases of non summer and non winter as one can get.

        1. I like your analysis as always. We shall see.
          On another note, I remember a November in the 60s.

          There were 3 storms in a short period from about 11/7 through 11/15 or so. It was in the 60s. I went skiing at Mt. Snow on Veteran’s Day after the 2nd storm. There was
          over 3 feet of snow on the ground up there. It was unreal.

          back to the point. After all of that snow (none in Boston, some in western suburbs and beyond) and an early start to the ski season, the rest of the season was a total BUST!!

  18. Once December starts I hope we see fewer of these systems and more coastal lows other wise the UGH meter will be off the charts.

  19. The highest number I will go for is 41.1 inches for Boston.
    The lowest, somewhere below 20, but higher than 5. 😉

    Chances are, it’ll fall between 20 and 41.1 inches, when I make my final decision tomorrow.

  20. The one thing, amongst many, that I used to like about the EURO was its amazing run to run consistency, even in the 7-10 time period.

    This no longer seems to be true and I think its been happening for months.

    In the 7-10 day period, there is an AMAZING difference btwn todays 00z run and 12z run in regards to what is projects to be happening in eastern and southeastern Canada. This, of course, is having a huge difference in a low pressure areas track in that time period, eminating around the Gulf of Mexico.

    Stunning !!

    1. 00z (240hrs) 1030 mb high, SE of Cape Cod, flood gates open to mild air ahead of approaching system

      12z (240 hrs) strengthening (its only 1028mb notth of the great lakes at 216 hrs) 1036 mb high due north of New England. Considerable cold air in eastern Canada.

      It’ll all change, but just trying to give an example of the lack of consistency.

      1. If you really want to see an amazing difference, look at Quebec City at 240 hrs for both the 00z run and the 12z run for the projected 850mb temps ……….

  22. Holy CRAP BATMAN. I see what you mean TOM.

    Have a look at this Euro at 240 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111512/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    However, cold has already been eroded even with that monster High to our North

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111512/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

    That going to be a biggie SHOULD it ever come to pass

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111512/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

  23. Good to know….

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 16s17 seconds ago
    Tuesday 18th 12z, Environment Canada upgrades their entire suite of NWP. Global determ, ensembles, and regional models.

    1. That would be a CMC upgrade

      more…

      Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6s6 seconds ago
      Enviro Canada ticks models up to versions 4.0.0.0 using 4D-ENVAR (ensemble variational) data assimilation. Very minor skill improvements.

    1. I was in Mexico, New York a few weeks back dreaming of what it’s like there during Lake Effect. They’re right in the heart of it.

      The reflector stakes along the edge of the highway I guessed were near 6-8′ high. I was thinking…only one reason for that.

  25. Easy to forget just how low that sun angle is this time of year. My yard is still 50% or more cover with an inch of snow.

  26. Not sure if it gets posted here but I guess I’ll just go for it. This is all just a guess.

    WINTER FORCAST
    I’m going to go with the snow in Syberia and a weak elnino setting up to give us some decent snow . Two snow events in December one in the beginning let’s say 4 inches and one right before Xmas say the weekend before with a big one of at least 10 inches for Boston . Quiet first half of January with a very big storm the mlk weekend with a 20 inch storm more for south shore . Maybe one or two six inch storms as well. February 14 major storm of 25 inches for boston and again a couple of smaller ones for this month. March no snow at all, watchers but misses. So the bulk comes in with two big storms, a medium one and few smaller ones to give Boston let’s day 67.5 inches.

    1. I moved it to contest page. Glad to see you posting. I will add any new ones on the contest page to the spreadsheet on Monday. I saw one from JJ too

  27. From NWS

    INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD…

    GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR. ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL OF WELL-BELOW-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

    Let’s see how ARCTIC it turns out to be.

    IF temps at Boston stay below 32, then I’ll give you arctic for this time of year.
    IF temps are in the mid-upper 30’s I give you FRAUD!!!

    1. I’m not buying temps staying below 32 for the daytime….and that my friends is based on nothing concrete.

        1. Darn…Now I think it’s Pike’s Peak…Colorado Springs…was there in 95….seems to fit the bill

  30. Thankfully I don’t see this cold lasting for long. BIG warm up starting next weekend,, unfortunately with rain but maybe 60+ degrees!!

  34. Answer to Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the “coldest high temperature” ever recorded for today?
    A. 33 degrees
    B. 30 degrees
    C. 38 degrees
    D. 28 degrees

    The answer is B.

    Answer to Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is coldest temperature day recorded on this date?

    A. 13 degrees
    B. 15 degrees
    C. 17 degrees
    D. 19 degrees

    The answer is C.

    1. Thanks Longshot. Do you know year for coldest. I know 1992 was really cold right around this time of year. But I don’t think that cold.

  35. Saw Barry Burbank today at the ski show, he is thinking we could see a very cold winter with average snowfall with more snow south of boston than north. he said that he is seeing a similar set up to that year of the mid atlantic getting a bunch of snow storms while we stay cold and dry.

  36. That was the winter of 09-10 when the Mid Atlantic got crushed and the word snowageden was used. Philadelphia had their snowiest winter on record that winter.

  38. Oh boy !!!!!

    Accuweather’s 1,579 day outlook has …….

    Periods of snow, 32F ….

    For ……

    Christmas Day !!

    Ahem …. Clears the throat ….. I’m dreaming of a white Christmas …….

  39. Whomever is at channel 5 tonight just posted a map for next Friday with potential for snow. Really for next Friday ?!jeez

      2. Then i guess we shouldnt have tv forecasts for anything more than 3 days out. They need to put something on there and thats what some models portray.

  40. If a disturbance comes along next Friday it will be cold enough for snow or snow showers. There are hints of one. Don’t think it will be much of a system though.

  41. Late night / early morning thoughts:

    There will be SOME sun during Sunday, not completely sunny, not completely overcast.

    Temps may make a run at 60 in parts of southeastern MA Monday evening.

    Tuesday will be transition day with lots of wind.

    Coldest core of air passes through Wednesday.

    I don’t buy lower 30s for highs next Saturday. I do buy lower 40s.

    Warm-up starts on Sunday next weekend but the question going into Thanksgiving week is how warm, because it may be quite cloudy and wet around November 24-25. Nevertheless, there is the potential for a push of very warm air, relative to normal, centering on November 25, +/- half a day.

  42. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the max height the sun reaches above the horizon today?
    A. 28.8 degrees
    B. 32.5 degrees
    C. 45.1 degrees
    D. 73.8 degrees

    Answer later today.

  43. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How many more minutes of daylight will we lose by December 21st?
    A. About 30 min
    B. About 40 min
    C. About 50 min
    D. About 60 min

    Answer later today.

    Answer later today.

    Answer later today.

  44. C for first B for second.
    First winter weather alert of the season for my county in CT. Too bad its going to be a light icing instead of snow before going over to a rainorama.

  49. Being mid November, here is Logan’s climate data …

    Avg high for November 16th : 51.7F, yes …….. 51.7F !!!!

    Yesterday, Logan recorded 40F for a high and 30F for a low.

    40F is climatological average for December 21st

    30F is climatological average for December 8th.

  50. Thanks tk and good morning!!
    Geez is it cold for Nov, Brrrr!! , I’m ready for a warm up!!
    The models that I’m following show a BIG warmup starting next weekend and beyond, I do think 60 degrees is achievable at the end of nov beginning of Dec.
    On a side note 4 people in my travels have already looked at me and said “it’s freezing” 🙂 good day

  51. Ace was correct.

    http://i.imgur.com/EQ9Bctb.jpg

    http://i.imgur.com/UnvM1UI.png

    The Mt. Baldy Ski Lifts, located in Southern California’s San Bernardino County, is the closest ski and snowboard area to Los Angeles, just 45 miles from the city. Mt. Baldy boasts the steepest vertical drop, 2,100’, in Southern California thanks to its 8,600’ summit. Mt. Baldy is merely a nickname, as the ski area actually resides on Mt. San Antonio, which with an elevation of 10,069’ is the highest peak in the San Gabriel Mountain Range.

    Projected Opening: 11/29/2014
    Days Open Last Year: 175
    Projected Closing Ski Season: 04/12/2015
    Projected Days Open: 200
    Years Open: 62
    Average Snowfall: 178″

  53. What’s with the Lakes Cutter CRAP?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

    Ths is more like it

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

    looking way ahead to early December….YUCK

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111606/gfs_z500a_us_49.png

  57. A couple of “cooler” days has dropped the ocean temperature about 1 Degreee.

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Nov 16 2014, 7:50 am EST
    Sun, 16 Nov 2014 07:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 37.2 °F (2.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 24.3 °F (-4.3 °C)
    Wind: West at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
    Wind Chill: 29 F (-2 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1029.1 mb
    Water Temperature: 50.4 °F (10.2 °C)

    1. I have a good feeling that the water temps will fall to at least near normal this winter. Unfortunately I don’t have quite the same feeling about my snowfall total. Of course, I haven’t been even close on that since TK started this blog anyway. 😉

  59. Forecast for sky condition was tricky today. I felt out of place being the only one to go for a cloudier morning and partly sunny afternoon………… Everyone else seemed to indicate starting with sun then turning cloudier with time. Even Barry, Harvey, and the NWS went that way. What I kept seeing was very little moisture in low levels so basically no low cloudiness except maybe the South Coast this afternoon, and mainly high & middle cloudiness with moist available moisture for that in the strongest warm advection aloft this morning, then a little less so this afternoon with most abundant moisture for high cloudiness but less middle cloudiness, at least in the bulk of the region, with a push from the south of moisture at mid levels again by shortly after sunset. Chose the optimistic route in calling for at least partial (filtered) sun for part of the afternoon … granted that’s only just over 4 hours from noon to sunset.

  65. NOW the clouds are taking back over.

    Just took a 10 min break from leaf-removal. My son and I are having fun out there. 😛

  67. Last year at this time the local pond was 1/4 ice this time BC of the cold, this year it’s all water so far 🙂

      1. Can’t have much. Temps this time last year were highs 40s and I don’t think anything with much water could freeze

  68. Thanks TK!!!! 🙂 I really love the rustic orange color of the blog right now 🙂

    The other day my dad was wearing a short-sleeved shirt in the house, and he looks at me and says, “Hmm…I’m cold…”

    And about three days ago I saw 6 people outside wearing shorts……

    It’s NOVEMBER people! 😛

  72. DENVER LOSES today!!!

    Denver
    Broncos
    (7-3)

    7 – 22
    Final

    St. Louis
    Rams
    (4-6)

    1 2 3 4 Total
    Broncos 0 7 0 0 7
    Rams 10 3 3 6 22

  73. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What is the max height the sun reaches above the horizon today?
    A. 28.8 degrees
    B. 32.5 degrees
    C. 45.1 degrees
    D. 73.8 degrees

    The answer is A. Actually I am not sure it even gets to 40 degrees before March.

    How many more minutes of daylight will we lose by December 21st?
    A. About 30 min
    B. About 40 min
    C. About 50 min
    D. About 60 min

    The answer is B. I believe the day with the least amount of light might be December 9th.

  74. Hi all!

    My aim today: To leaf blow all the leaves including the ones hidden in corners and behind things into a couple piles in the open yard and get them all packed for pick-up this coming week.
    My accomplishment today: Above, PLUS going over the entire lawn with the catch on the mower to get up all the little stuff left behind. I did not expect to move fast enough to do the mow/catch part this week. So basically I’m a week ahead on yard work. Beat THAT one, Charlie. 😉 Just kidding.

    My aim for the blog: The Winter Outlook by 9PM. The Week Ahead by 10PM. While we are all (hopefully) enjoying the Pats game. 😉

  75. NOAA will be updating their monthly and seasonal outlooks on Thursday November 20. I don’t expect them to make a whole lot of changes to the outlook from the previous month, but I do think they may bust on one of the months coming up, temperature-wise.

  79. I think parts of SE MA and RI may shoot well into the 60s tomorrow evening.

    As for next weekend? No 60+ weather. But I think the 30s on Saturday may be a bit too low.

    1. Well it’s 11 days away, but it looks like we’ll be in a pattern of near to slightly above normal temps about that time, just coming off a significant warm-up.

  81. Its too bad this is an indoor game at Indy

    Currently : light snow, 30F. Visibility : 3/4 mile.

    I think it was Nebraska at Wisconsin yesterday that I watched for a few minutes because it was snowing. Field had gotten covered.

    Love those crazy snowy games where you cant tell what yard-line the play is on.

    1. Snow football is fun to watch. 🙂
      I’ve played it too, but it was Nerf football in my friend’s yard during heavy wet snow. 😉

    2. There was a game last year in Philly between Eagles and Lions where it was like a blizzard in the first half of game.
      Always love football games when played in the elements.

      1. If Brady would stop the long passes I’d be happy. I don’t know his completion average but would be curious as they rarely seem to work

    2. The bomb is not unusual for him. I just never know why. The other was a rare error I think and he will take himself to task far harder than we will

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