Enter The Cold

144 Comments

10:43PM

The next 5 days will feature cold and wind, along with mainly dry weather, as a broad low pressure trough moves slowly eastward across central to eastern Canada and the adjacent US Midwest to Northeast. The only precipitation threats will be from a disturbance moving along in the westerly flow that may deliver some snow showers in the early hours of Thursday, and a few stray lake effect snow showers from the Great Lakes that may survive the long trip over the mountains of NY and western New England – though this is only a slight risk. By the time we get to late in the weekend and the start of next week, a new weather pattern will emerge, and it will be a shift to mild weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Temperatures falling from the 50s to near 40 Cape Cod, 40s to near 30 elsewhere except some upper 20s north and west of Boston. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Watch for icy spots on ground areas that don’t dry quickly enough before freezing up.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill in the teens.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with snow showers early, then sunny. Low 25. High 40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 45. High 60.

144 thoughts on “Enter The Cold”

  1. Thanks tk 🙂 I like the steady increase in temps as we go into the last week of Nov, I knew I was seeing 60 degrees on some models. 🙂

  3. Good morning and Thanks for the Update TK. Great job with yesterday’s system.

    I have to say around here I wasn’t impressed with ANY portion of that event. NOTHING. Ho Hum.

    Fro the Cold. Where the bleep is it.? 37 here. Oh it really plummeted. It was 41 at
    11:30PM last night. The HYPE on this “cold” is ridiculous! (Not from TK)

    We can manage a few days in the 30s. What’s the big deal?

    When it warms up, how long will it last? A few days OR right into the new Year? 😀

    1. Blame the overhyped tweets, I’m truly believe its all media money driven to get the eyes and ears listening, be ready for another polar vortex hype snowstorm showing on models to only end up nothing, it’s bad, not TK though , glad I don’t watch or listen anymore, only read. Good day os 🙂

  4. A Narrow, but rather intense Lake Effect Snow Band South of Buffalo NY.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BUF

    Excerpt from Buffalo NWS (this is for Lake Ontario where nothing is happening
    at the moment. For Lake Erie it says the same, except 2-3 feet)

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN
    THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. STORM TOTAL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

      1. Here is the only observation I could find with snow:

        Watertown International Airport, NY
        (KART) 44.01N 76.02W

        Last Updated: Nov 18 2014, 5:56 am EST
        Tue, 18 Nov 2014 05:56:00 -0500
        Weather: Heavy Snow and Windy
        Temperature: 27.0 °F (-2.8 °C)
        Dewpoint: 15.1 °F (-9.4 °C)
        Relative Humidity: 61 %
        Wind: from the Southwest at 28.8 gusting to 44.9 MPH (25 gusting to 39 KT)
        Wind Chill: 11 F (-12 C)
        Visibility: 0.25 miles
        MSL Pressure: 1003.1 mb
        Altimeter: 29.61 in Hg

    2. Bernie Rayno retweeted
      News12WX RichHoffman ‏@hoffmanrich 4m4 minutes ago
      WOW SNOW from Lake Effect : NEW YORK …ERIE COUNTY…
      3 WSW ELMA 32.4″ and still snowing.

  6. It seems with the warmth comes unsettled weather (rain). I hope this isnt a trend. Its like for the folks who like snow hate to see wasted cold with no snow. If u like milder weather in winter you’ll have to accept it will come with crappy rainy weather

    1. Ace my thoughts exactly as I heard near 60 Monday with rain possible yet 30s today and rain just ended 🙁

    3. This Sunday im eyeing a partly sunny day mid 50’s, new Englanders will take what they can get, and enjoy it, good day 🙂

    1. It’s all relative. Cold compared to average, certainly.
      But cold compared to mid-Winter? Hardly. 😀

  9. Hey everyone. So, my daughter moved to Kalamazoo, MI. It has been snowing there since last Thursday, and is predicted to keep snowing until this Thursday. I guess for the most part it has been little snows, just a few inches at a time, but persistent. This morning, though, she woke up to 7 inches. Just thought I’d make the snow lovers jealous, and the snow haters glad that they don’t live in Michigan. Something for everyone.

  10. Snow band expanding South of Buffalo, NY.

    OFF LAKE ERIE…RADARS DISPLAY A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
    ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ERIE…WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVING
    THIS BAND INLAND OVER AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
    BUFFALO TO NORTHERN GENESEE AND FAR SW MONROE COUNTY. BASED ON REPORTS THIS SNOWBAND IS EXHIBITING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BUF

  11. On this November 18th, I thought I’d see when the first 1″ + snow fell at Logan in productive snow seasons …..

    winter 2013-2014 : December 14th : 3.2 inches

    winter 2012-2013 : December 29th : 2.2 inches

    winter 2010-2011 : December 20th : 2.6 inches

    winter 2009-2010 : December 5th : 2.2 inches

    The winter I skipped was the non-winter of 2011-2012. If your curious, the first 1.0+ inch of snow that fell that year was January 16th : a whopping 1.2 inches

    So, thats as far back as the data goes on the Taunton NWS site.

    To me winter 2011-2012 was an exceptional outlier. Focusing on the other winters, hang in there …… history says that the first 1.0+ inch snowfall locally, is reasonably expected sometime 4 or so weeks from today.

  14. Thanks TK! Glad to see that Saturday’s temps won’t be too cold for the Thanksgiving parade. Everyone should come on down to Plymouth on Saturday for a very festive time!

    1. Some NY Storm totals:

      …ERIE COUNTY…
      LANCASTER 48.0 1015 AM 11/18 AMATEUR RADIO
      1 S EAST LANCASTER 42.0 1000 AM 11/18 NEAR COMO PARK
      ELMA 37.2 820 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      1 E EAST LANCASTER 37.0 1040 AM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
      ALDEN 36.0 930 AM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
      1 WNW ORCHARD PARK 36.0 910 AM 11/18 DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
      3 WSW ELMA 32.4 500 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      ORCHARD PARK 30.0 1000 AM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
      4 SSE BUFFALO 25.0 745 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      1 N HAMBURG 21.5 930 AM 11/18 NWS EMPLOYEE
      2 SSW BLASDELL 19.0 744 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      2 W WEST SENECA 18.0 700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      WSW HAMBURG 18.0 700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
      2 S AKRON 16.0 800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS

  18. Vicki/OS – Yes, WMEX returned to the airwaves yesterday! The 1510 station has had a number of different call letters over the years since 1978.

    Also, the Howie Carr Show made its debut yesterday as well. He is on his regular time slot at 3 -7 pm weekdays.

    1. Thanks Philip…I remember there were two choices for 60s music back then – WMEX AM was the better of the two. Was BZ FM the other choice? Surprising that AM was preferred .

    1. Thank god we don’t ever get that crap, totally different out there, when I go there to buffalo for games, it has become basically a bunch of wasteland, I believe bc of the weather they get there 🙂

    3. Beautiful photo – thanks OS. Although Buffalo is probably considered slightly west of it, I do enjoy the lakes region of NY – beautiful area of country.

    5. I wish i could experience one lake effect snow event like that. On the winter weather enthusiast’s “bucket list” 🙂

    1. Luck may be on your side, even with below normal snow likely in December. It’ll be all in the timing and the pattern may change to favor some potential events by the middle of December.

        1. Oh my …. the few times we have gone over it, my wife has driven thank goodness ………. and the traffic hasnt been too bad.

          1. It is the roads after the Tappanzee that scare me. We came over it on our drive home from Charleston right after the Oklahoma City Bombing and there were armed guards all over. Very unnerving.

  24. Blount is available after Pitt released him today. I guess Blount walked off the field last night during the game.

  25. Bad news for exclusive snow lovers: You will not like the pattern through at least December 10. For me, not bad news because we’ll have plenty of air mass changes, but just a mild bias and on the dry side of normal.

    1. OS – Matt just posted a video on FB of the picture you had a link to above. I’ll let him post it here as first I can’t find it 🙂 And second, I don’t want to steal his thunder. Maybe those should be reversed 🙂

  27. Since the snow squalls are too far away, I’m heading out for a cumulus cloud plume chase…

    Actually I’m dropping my daughter off at Davis Square in Somerville then going to pick up a chicken pie in Reading. But hey…

    Computer is about to install updates so shutting down. I’ll be back this evening!

          1. Very. Her mother graduated Harvard Extension school about 10 years ago very high ranked. They are smarties. 😉

        2. Harvard, awesome. Better keep working. 😀

          My son could have gone to Harvard and we would have have had to pay, but since he got a full boat scholarship to BU, he attended BU. Got his BS and MS. 😀

  29. i wish that snow in the great lakes would come over here for thursday night through friday. so i had more time to study for the three freakin tests i have on friday.

    1. Ughhhhhh. I was in blasdell NY only a few weeks back too which is right in the heart of that. I should have postponed my trip. I will next time!

  33. It’s freezing out there!!!! 🙁 glad it’s not going to last, and the warm up begins in the later half of the weekend, I still see a decent chance at 60 degrees early next week. I like what even the longer range models are saying. I actually do want a white Christmas, not sure about that with what some models r hinting at imo 🙂

    2. Christmas is a long way off. The models only go out to about December 4.

      Pattern goes cold again mid December.

  37. Some of the temps are January like ….

    Atlanta : 29F, Orlando in the mid 40s, A good part of the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley in the teens !!

      2. Went to the Great Lakes Ice cover page, but ….. as best as I can tell, it is not opened yet for this cold season.

        1. Shows you how ahead it is. I told wife and she said didn’t they have a head start?
          I said you were correct. In june I remember seeing0
          Ice chunks at the beaches

          1. I had forgotten about that (the ice in June).

            I’d guess the cooler than normal summer in the Great Lakes region also adds to below normal water temps.

      1. As cold as it was in New England last winter, the rest of the world was 8th hottest on record :). Climates change. A cold snap here and record heat Australia. We r a changin’.

  40. Just checked radar. Snow machine south of buffalo slowly calming down.
    Still snowing but perhaps an inch per hour instead of 4-5 inches per hour

  43. I’d like to see that report about Lake Superior. I don’t think it’s right. It takes quite a bit of time to cool the entire surface to 39F and drop the entire lake to that temperature which is what needs to happen before the surface can freeze.

      1. Ok that’s on a very shallow somewhat enclosed section. It makes sense.

        The media will twist it, like everything else.

        2. Correct. The question is whether even for shallow area is it unusual. It would seem to me in that area it is not but that is a pure guess. Also, what they are seeing around it is certainly unusual.

  44. I have been hearing that currently 50% of the CONUS is snowcovered. It is probably not unprecedented by any means, but I bet it hasn’t happened this early in quite a number of years, maybe even decades.

    1. I hope sometime next month (not too long before Christmas) it will be our turn here in SNE to be snowcovered. 🙂

  45. WWKB 1520 in Buffalo is off the air (which I’m sure is weather related) It’s a 50,000 watt blowtorch station that normally gets out across most of eastern half of the country quite well after dark.

    2. I love picking up the 50,000 watt stations late night.

      There was one out of Indiana, 1190 WOWO that I used to listen to late nights driving back into my job in the mid 1990s to finish off a split shift tropical update. 🙂

      1. Yup got that one as well. For 25 cents I picked up an old
        fashion AM radio. Then I hooked it up to our TV antenna.
        I used to keep a log of all the stations I picked up.

        I got San Antonio, tx
        St. Louis
        Detroit
        Chicago

        Tons of em.

      1. Call letters changed years ago…hasn’t been WKBW since the mid or late 80s.

        I got hooked on dxng (long distance radio) by hearing all those big 50 kw stations. Now I’ve logged close to 1000 AM stations from North America, Central America, South America, Europe, The Mideast and Africa in the past 25 years.

  47. 22.5 here. Thought we might go sub-20. Nope. 24 at Logan

    Ocean temps

    16 Miles East of Boston = 49.5 1st time sub 50 this year

    Stellwagen still 50.7

    Every so slowly falling off. I suspect by the end of this cold spell it
    should drop another Degree, perhaps 2. 😀

  49. Good morning!! It’s freezing out there, this is below normal for january!!! Anyways the advertised warm up is still there, and begins this Sunday 🙂 until then stay inside and keep warm 🙂 good day

  50. Interesting……

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 1m1 minute ago
    So, 2 semi-trucks of necessary broadcast equipment that has to get to Foxboro by Sunday, but is stuck in Buffalo indefinitely.
    0 replies 1 retweet 1 favorite
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite1
    More
    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    If the semi trucks hauling broadcast equipment for @Patriots vs. @Lions can’t get out of Buffalo by Friday, new plan needed for broadcast
    0 replies 1 retweet 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite
    More
    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 5m5 minutes ago
    Per @mikebettes report, he’s stranded at a hotel w/2 semi units hauling broadcast equipment for @Patriots game Sunday

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