Chillified

129 Comments

7:30AM

Sufficiently chilled yet? It’s not the Polar Vortex, it’s the Great Lake Monster, or whatever name the media will decide to give the “storm” that caused mammoth snow totals in fairly narrow bands on the lee of the Great Lakes, especially just south of Buffalo NY. To expand on that briefly, most of you know that Great Lakes snow bands are nothing new. This particular setup was just very intense, because of the magnitude of the cold so early in the season (easy to make snow) and the warmth of the water the air was passing over (more available moisture). Add them together and the result is obvious.

So, back to our weather here in southeastern New England. There is not much to add to the previous discussion. We have one cold core moving by today, with a brief and slight moderation coming Thursday as a disturbance pushes a weak warm front through the area in the overnight hours tonight with a few snow showers possible. But as the disturbance passes by to the north, its cold front will quickly sweep through the region with nothing more than a few clouds and an isolated snow shower possible, but more importantly sending another cold core across the area for Friday, along with wind.

The weekend warm-up: Yes, it is going to warm up. You won’t notice it first thing Saturday as it will be quite cold, but during the day, with less wind, moderation will begin, and a few clouds will move in. By Sunday, it will be much milder along with lots of clouds as a more solid southwesterly flow takes over.

Early next week will be mild as well, but with occasional wet weather, as broad low pressure moves through the Great Lakes.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny, with high clouds showing up in the west later in the day. Highs in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east before midnight, a few snow showers shortly after midnight but most areas dry, then clearing west to east around dawn. Lows in the 20s north and west of Boston but remaining in the 30s to the southeast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow shower in a few locations in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 55.

129 thoughts on “Chillified”

        1. Well BZ didn’t report that as usual 🙂 This morning they did clarify that the negative one wind chill was at Worcester.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    It’s cold now, but after Friday night we may not see frost for a very long time. I think the end of November and most of December will be quite mild, similar to what we experienced in 2011. While I do not think our winter will be a non-event like it was then, I see the Northeast (and especially SNE) being on the mild side most of the winter, with a large number of lakes cutters bringing rain to the area, followed by brief shots of moderate cold. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Boston does not see temps dip below 5F this winter, and will have only a few sub-freezing days.

    1. Hope you are incorrect. I have to say, I do NOT NOT NOT like the incessant
      array of Lakes Cutters lining up and showing on model runs. Doesn’t mean they happen, but to continuously show up, tells me something SUCKS about the
      pattern. TK says a change is due around Dec. 10.

      We shall see.

  3. Thanks TK for the Update.

    Sorry, but it just IS NOT that cold out. It just isn’t.

    I did throw my Winter coat on just not to be stubborn. It is brisk, but NO BIG DEAL
    out there at all.

    Eric forecast 34 for a high in Boston.

    Let’s see about that. I say it goes higher than that. I’ll be watching. 😀

    1. Could not agree more. This is November. It is invigorating. No jacket but then I don’t wear them except on rare occasion. That said, were I walking to work or out past a walk from car to building, I would wear one. Heat went on for 30 minutes twice in night which is my concession to first colder weather.

  4. WWKB…Posting this also on this page too

    Call letters changed years ago…hasn’t been WKBW since the mid or late 80s.

    I got hooked on dxng (long distance radio) by hearing all those big 50 kw stations. Now I’ve logged close to 1000 AM stations from North America, Central America, South America, Europe, The Mideast and Africa in the past 25 years.

    2. Cool. I used to do the same. Never logged as many as you did. I’d listen
      for hours on end. Many times I’d have 2 stations at the same time.

      1. I’m in full bore into the hobby…Lots of $$ and time…but it keeps me home and out of the bars and my wife likes that 🙂

        In addition to AM and Shortwave I also dx FM stations (used to dx TV stations until HD TV about and put a damper on that). I’ve logged more than 2000 FM stations from North America…many more to go.

        1. Great hobby. Outstanding.

          After High School I gave that one up. NEVER gave
          up the weather though. 😀

          I also used to log mountains with their location and elevation.

  7. It’s pretty dam cold to me for nov 19th. I think early december is warmer but I think mid month it gets cold again.

    2. It’s perfectly fine to me. Sure climatologically speaking, it certainly is
      cold for this date. No Doubt about that. However it’s Nothing unusual though. Now IF it went below Zero, we’d be talking about something Epic. 😀

      1. I think it’s very unusual for this time of year. All 50 states had below 32 yesterday. Records being shattered everywhere. The high today will be what January sees.

  8. It does not feel like November out there but once we get past Saturday pattern change and it looks like a rainorama early next week UGH!!! Frustrating to get the cold in place and can’t get a storm to deliver the white stuff.

  11. I love snow but not that much. When looking at some of these pictures I feel the 30 inches of snow I got in the blizzard of 2013 along with some of those 8 feet snow banks were nothing compared to that.

  13. Thanks TK! My stepdaughters from Jamaica think it is pretty damn cold. 🙂 They were amazed to see ice on our driveway.

  14. 15 to 20 degrees below normal today. Yup that is cold. Don’t compare this to the same departure in January. Factor in the date today. 🙂

    1. Sure it’s cold. BUT, I still get can’t over the HYPE.

      Geez, it’s New England and occasionally it gets COLD in mid-November.

      If this were the COLD out West and upper Mid-West, DIFFERENT STORY.
      😀

  16. At least with this cold spell the water temps at Boston Buoy are cooling off nicely (49) so when we do eventually get the right setup for a potential snowstorm any wind off the water (unless E or SE) will not deter Boston and inside 128 from gettting mostly snow.

  18. Off today, around the house ….. taking care of my wife who had successful, minor knee surgery yesterday. She’s doing great !!

    Looking at a site on http://www.oregon.gov …… Its their seasonal climate forecast for the next 4 months. (I somehow ended up here after trying to search for analog years to match our current weather)

    Anyhow, to make a long story, short. Their (the Oregon site) forecast is based on 3 analog years ….. 1951, 1968 and 2009. This matches years from the “cool phase” of the PDO and also has SST that most closely match current equitorial Pacific region ocean temps.

    So ….

    FWIW, here’s snowfall totals for Logan in those years …

    1951 : 29.7 1952 : 39.6

    1968 : 44.8. 1969 : 53.8

    2009 : 65.9. 2010 : 35.7

    I’m listing the 2 snow seasons around 1951, 1968 and 2009 because each season has contributions for each year. Also, the 2nd year (52, 69 and 10) might be more telling as its the season that starts at the end of each analog year.

    Anyhow, I have no idea if the analog years they are choosing are accurate, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

    1. I dont know if I’m allowed to post the link, I cant find their usage policy.

      I got to it not by the site above. I got the link when I googled Seasonal climate forecasts.

          1. Obviously, all credit for this report goes to the Oregon Dept of Agriculture, Oregon Department of Forestry and all of the Meteorologists within those departments.

          2. I got stuck just looking at the background photo on the page….beautiful. And thank you Tom for your posts and information.

            Please wish Mrs. Tom well and tell her to take advantage of being waited on 🙂

    2. Yes, cool stuff! Many thanks
      ”
      Not sure how it will equate for us. Seems to be in line with TK’s Winter
      Outlook.

  21. I do like that there’s no meaningful snow for quite sometime, it doesn’t make for a loooonnnggg winter, maybe even well into Dec, but I do hope for a white Christmas. It’s freezing out!!!! 🙁 🙂

  22. Just came in. It is nice out. A bit on the cool side, but nice.

    Temp at home was 35.6, car = 36.

    Logan 1PM = 36

    😀

  23. Here’s a quiz. The poster does NOT provide an answer.

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

    Lake effect snow function of:
    a. Lake temperature
    b. Ice cover
    c. Air blowing over lake for instability
    d. direction of wind

    My Answer is ALL OF THE ABOVE.

        1. A, lake temp, determining amount of moisture available for pick up based on the contrast with the air passing over it…

          plus

          B, ice cover, because if the lake is frozen over, not a whole lot of moisture will be available for pick-up…

          plus

          C, air blowing over lake… well this should be a no brainer because that moisture is not going to suddenly lift itself up and transport itself in any particular direction, as you need moving air (wind) for that…

          plus

          D, direction of wind has an obvious and direct impact on where the snow bands set up, as we have seen illustrated in a big way this time…

          equals

          E, ALL OF THE ABOVE

  24. I’m hoping TK is right about mid December, but that’s a long way off. In the meantime, we’re going to see some mild temps from this Sunday through early to mid December. Not just here, by the way. With the exception of Buffalo, the places with all that snow will see most of it gone by as early as Thanksgiving weekend. There is no large pool of cold air poised to attack the Lower 48, beginning this weekend. That could change by mid December, but I have my doubts.

    By the way, there is absolutely NO cold air in Western and Central Europe to speak of. I was there last week and it was very mild with the usual spotty rain. No frost in sight, even in the long-range, for most of Europe except the Eastern fringe and far Northern fringe.

    2011-2012 may not be analogous to this year’s winter. In fact, it probably is not. However, my hunch is that for snow-lovers like myself we will have to transport ourselves to Southern Quebec. QC got nailed in 2011-2012 with a ton of heavy, wet snow. Given the lack of truly cold air that winter, even in QC, much of the snow was sticky and early spring-like. But, there was lots of it.

  25. 12z GFS and 12z EURO in remarkable agreement regarding an intense storm over Wisconsin early next week. Low placement on both models is nearly identical and pressures are very close, 976 and 974 mb respectively.

  26. With a warmup coming next week those areas with all that snow COULD have some flooding issues to contend with as rain is in the forecast early next week for those areas that got crushed with all that snow.

    1. That’s consistent with what the SREF was reporting.

      I honestly would have thought that the ratio would have been like
      25, 30 or even 35:1.

      I have a feeling it was because the Lakes are still relatively warm and the air was
      pretty damn cold for quite a contrast. They managed the most
      QPF they possibly could out of that event.

      Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

  31. Nice work by the WHW crack research team!

    I knew it was fluffy.

    With that much Qpf Hadi, that speaks to just how deep that is. If it rains……look out roofs. They’d better get those schools shoveled off.

  32. OK, here is my first COMPLAINT about the cold.

    Our office didn’t have heat until Noon time and it is NOT working very well even
    now.

    MY HANDS ARE FREEZING!

    I get to go home in a few where it is toasty warm. 😀 😀

      2. It was NICE outside with a coat on.
        I was in My office trying to work sans coat. I’m comfortable again now. 😀

    1. What’s so facinsting is the wide range over such a small area. I would be so pissed if one town over me got 40 and I got 4 :). Those bands are so narrow and hard to pinpoint the exact location. Like the old saying goes a few miles can make s huge difference.

  35. Thanks research team! I was visiting the dentist and doing a few errands this afternoon. Nice feeling to have a credit on your account so the visit was free and have a clean bill of oral health and be set for half a year. 🙂

    Not much to add, just to confirm, very low water content snow. Rain next week should not present any flooding issues as most of that snow will have either blown away or evaporated by early Sunday and most of the rest should be melted by Monday, ‘cept some piles.

  36. The storm that is going to go through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes next Monday will be in many ways similar to the Edmund Fitzgerald storm of November 10 1975.

  37. BZ had 2 days above normal next week (mon-tues) then back to below through turkey day. Five days below normal, 2 days above, then below. Mild pattern? Nope

    1. Fwiw…Pete says another mild rainstorm sometime after Thanksgiving/next weekend. SNE will not be getting in on any snow any time soon…of course TK has been pretty much saying that all along.

    2. Mild pattern gets underway Sunday and lasts through early December. Count on it. Monday/Tuesday will run significantly above normal. And without sharp delivery of cold air, Wednesday will probably run near to above normal. The holiday itself will be cooler, but Thanksgiving Weekend will probably run above to much above normal.

      The forecasts of persistent cold will be completely inaccurate.

  38. TK – Based on what has been happening the past few days now is it safe to say that Western NY and the other Great Lakes’ States will be the axis of the heaviest snow for the upcoming winter for the CONUS?

  39. It can’t be soon enough when these “fake” weather sites are gone. I don’t usually get into this too much here but there are too many social media sites being run by non-met’s that do not have the scientific knowledge enough to properly analyze things before making predictions.

    “So much for the mild early December” states one, because of sudden stratospheric warming. Even if that event takes place, the impact on the temperature is lagged by several days to more than a week or 2. It’s part of the basis for the educated forecasts of a shift back to colder weather for the East around the middle of December.

    I have no problem with weather enthusiasts getting into what they love to do, but then we have the info being put up for public view and people making important decisions based on this info! Bad news.

  42. Normal snowfall for Buffalo NY = 94.7″ Wow!

    I wonder how does the school system make up snow days…or do they even bother?

    1. **According to Dave Epstein, it is better to use the term “average” over “normal. I will try to get into that habit here. 🙂

      1. As I have said before, that’s one of my pet weather peeves.
        It drives me INSANE when people say it’s so many degrees above or below normal.

        For example, let’s take a nice Day in mid-January where the Boston Average low is what about 22 or 23 let’s call it 22.

        SO we get a night when it’s 5 Degrees and all Hell breaks loose
        because it was 17 Degrees below Normal!!! BULLSHIT!!!!
        It was 17 Degrees less than AVERAGE, BUT it is PERFECTLY
        NORMAL for it to be 5 Degrees for a low in the middle of January.

        I rest my case and I will jump down from the pulpit. 😀

        1. That’s why there is such a thing as standard deviation
          and variability. I won’t get into that at the moment.

    2. Nearly a 100 inches in 4 days. Just incredible. I know it’s a serious situation but boy would I love to be in that.

  45. TK’s favorite folks:

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 1m1 minute ago
    #GFS Still holding on to Potential Storm Threats Next Week! 1 Early Week and 1 Late Week. Both could produce #Snow.

    1. Best get used to it, at least Dec 10. We shall see thereafter.
      Not looking good prior to that, unless something goes haywire. 😀

      1. Then so be it. Let’s have the Great Lakes Cutters now and get them out of the way and then lots of Coastals thereafter in time for Christmas! We can only hope. 🙂

        Heck, I still have tons of leaves that I haven’t started raking in my yard anyway. My pet project for early December. 😉

  48. Like i said in my winter predictions. Its what is happening lake cutters, pacific storm track. All active right now. We will just have to be patient.
    ski areas are opening up or have been opened 😀

  49. Eric Fisher Tweet

    @ericfisher: Going to have to keep an eye on the setup Thanksgiving time/weekend after. Some snowy potential for SNE. Long way out though.

  52. Temp has risen from 26.8 at 10pm to 27.3 degrees currently, temps should be in the low 30’s by sunrise 🙂

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